Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of optimizing position strategies in quantitative frameworks for predicting bond futures, rather than solely focusing on the prediction accuracy of price movements [1][3]. Group 1: Position Strategy Optimization - The study tests various position strategies, including a full position strategy as a benchmark, a threshold-based full position strategy, and a gradual accumulation strategy that incorporates a fuzzy interval filtering mechanism [1][3]. - Continuous trading strategies convert binary probability signals into position adjustment signals, allowing for categorization based on risk preferences, such as risk-seeking, risk-averse, and risk-neutral types [1][3]. Group 2: Model and Market Conditions - The report references a multi-factor model for bond market timing, utilizing recent data to train models for predicting the next trading day, with specific market conditions defined for 2024 and 2025 [2]. - The combination of various position strategies is crucial, particularly in volatile markets, where appropriate strategy selection can significantly enhance overall model performance [3]. Group 3: Performance Insights - Binary full position strategies effectively capture returns during clear trends but come with higher volatility and transaction costs [3]. - Gradual accumulation strategies show lower trading frequency advantages, reducing transaction costs, but may have limited return capture in sideways markets [3]. - Single continuous strategies demonstrate strong performance in volatile markets, with specific strategies like Sigmoid and Atanh showing significant advantages in volatility control, especially for risk-averse investors [3].

India’s securities regulator has proposed changes to large initial public offerings, suggesting more shares for institutional buyers and fewer for retail investors amid a surge in new listings https://t.co/lLTUFI2IJB ...

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the launch of the Guotai Haitong 818 Wealth Management Festival, featuring discussions on the Chinese economic landscape and capital market prospects, emphasizing a "transformation bull" market trend [1][10]. Group 1: Event Overview - The Guotai Haitong 818 Wealth Management Festival officially commenced on August 1, with former Vice Chairman of the National Social Security Fund Council, Wang Zhongmin, as a special guest [1][10]. - The event includes a special program titled "Chief is Here," where experts analyze economic hotspots and market trends [1][10]. Group 2: Key Participants - Notable guests include Wang Zhongmin, who has extensive experience in economic policy and investment, and various chief analysts from Guotai Haitong [8][10]. - The program is hosted by Chen Xinyi, a prominent figure in the Guotai Haitong investment community [8]. Group 3: Discussion Topics - The first half of the program focuses on macroeconomic issues, including the evolution of China-U.S. relations and the impact of "anti-involution" compared to previous supply-side structural reforms [8]. - The second half addresses capital market investments, discussing the trend of increasing risk asset allocation and the implications of stablecoins and tokens on the global financial system [8]. Group 4: Future Programs - The festival will feature additional special programs, including one on August 18 led by Research Institute Director Lu Ying, focusing on new productivity and investment opportunities [10].

Core Viewpoint - The divergence between medium to long-term bond yields and short-term bill rates reflects the current credit supply and demand dynamics, with recent declines in bill rates indicating a stronger influence from credit attributes rather than funding factors [3][4][5]. Group 1: Bond and Bill Market Analysis - Since July 22, there has been a notable divergence between medium to long-term bond yields and short-term bill rates, with the 10Y government bond yield at 1.72%, up 4 basis points from July 21, while the 3M bill discount rate fell to 0.50%, down 71 basis points [3]. - Bill market rates exhibit both funding and credit attributes; recent declines in bill rates suggest a stronger influence from credit attributes, as evidenced by the slight increase in DR007 to 1.52%, up 3 basis points from July 21 [3][4]. - The volatility of bill market rates tends to be greater in the latter part of the month, indicating banks' adjustments in credit supply, which may reflect increased credit issuance in the latter half of the month [4]. Group 2: Economic Implications and Future Outlook - Investors are currently trading on the "anti-involution" narrative and its impact on commodity prices, which may affect the attractiveness of bond assets [4][5]. - The sustainability of the "anti-involution" logic depends on the breadth of rising commodity prices and their impact on real economic growth, with a stronger influence on PPI growth compared to CPI growth [4]. - In the medium term (one to two quarters), the probability of bond yield declines is greater than increases, given ongoing economic challenges and the need to lower overall financing costs [5]. - In the short term (one to two weeks), bond yields are expected to decline, as the market has passed the peak pressure of the current adjustment phase [5].

股票代码：000686 股票简称：东北证券 公告编号：2025-044 东北证券股份有限公司 第十一届董事会 2025 年第五次临时会议决议公告 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假 记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 一、董事会会议召开情况 本次会议以记名投票表决的方式审议并通过了以下议案： （一）审议通过了《关于董事会会议豁免提前通知的议案》 公司全体董事一致同意豁免本次会议提前通知的义务，并同意于 2025 年 7 月 31 日召开本次会议。 表决结果：13 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权，审议通过本议案。 （二）审议通过了《关于选举陈铁志先生为公司第十一届董事会战略与 ESG 管理委员会委员的议案》 公司董事会同意选举陈铁志先生为公司第十一届董事会战略与 ESG 管理委 员会委员，任期自本次董事会审议通过之日起至第十一届董事会届满之日止。 表决结果：13 票同意，0 票反对，0 票弃权，审议通过本议案。 年 7 月 31 日以现场和视频会议结合的方式召开，会议召开地点为吉林省长春市 生态大街 6666 号东北证券股份有限公司 1118 会议室。 月 31 日公司 2025 年第 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing efforts to regulate the underwriting and issuance processes in the interbank bond market, emphasizing the prohibition of underwriting fees below cost to combat unhealthy competition among underwriters [1][2]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - On July 30, the China Interbank Market Dealers Association issued a notice to standardize the underwriting and issuance practices in the interbank bond market, specifically stating that "lead underwriters must not quote underwriting fees below cost" [1]. - This notice follows a previous directive in June aimed at strengthening the regulations on underwriting fees in the interbank bond market [2]. Group 2: Underwriting Fee Issues - A self-regulatory investigation was initiated against six lead underwriters for their low fee quotes in a bond project, with total underwriting service fees amounting to only 6,300 yuan [2]. - The reported fees for selected underwriters were alarmingly low, with some like China Galaxy Securities and Industrial Bank quoting estimated service fees as low as 700 yuan, raising concerns about the sustainability of such pricing practices [3]. Group 3: Market Practices - The article highlights ongoing issues in the interbank bond market, including low underwriting fees, bundled investments, and potential conflicts of interest, which have persisted despite previous regulations [4]. - The notice emphasizes the need for lead underwriters to comprehensively assess project costs and set reasonable quotes, while also encouraging early submission of subscription demands from investors [4]. Group 4: Pricing Mechanisms - The notice outlines that not only underwriting fees but also the pricing of book-building rates must be regulated, ensuring that the balance of underwriting does not crowd out effective investor subscriptions [5]. - It specifies that the interest rates should generally be determined at the upper limit of the book-building rate range [5]. Group 5: Disclosure and Distribution - The association has called for enhanced disclosure of information related to debt financing tools, particularly regarding lead underwriters' balance underwriting and self-investment, which must be disclosed in issuance announcements [6]. - There is a push to optimize the mechanism for lead underwriter syndicates during the registration and issuance phases of debt financing tools [6]. Group 6: Underwriter Selection Criteria - The notice imposes restrictions on the number of members in the underwriting syndicate based on the issuance scale, with specific limits set for different types of bonds [7]. - For short-term financing bonds, only up to two lead underwriters can be selected, while for larger issuances, the number can increase to a maximum of four [7]. Group 7: Future Regulations - The association has indicated that a dedicated management approach for underwriting quotes will be announced separately, signaling ongoing efforts to address competitive practices in the interbank bond market [8].

申万宏源（000166）(06806)发布公告，该公司2021年面向专业投资者公开发行公司债券(第三期)(品种 二)(债券简称：21申宏06，债券代码：149579)将于2025年8月4日支付自2024年8月4日至2025年8月3日期 间的利息3.38元(含税)/张。 ...

7月30日，中共中央政治局召开会议，研究关于制定国民经济和社会发展第十五个五年规划的建议。同 时，会议分析研究当前经济形势，部署下半年经济工作。 在会议中，"持续发力""适时加力""治理企业无序竞争""释放内需潜力""化解重点领域风险"等表述引发 市场关注。中国下半年经济如何前行？哪些重点领域值得关注？ 八家券商先后发表观点对此作出深入 解读。 1 宏观政策：持续发力、适时加力 会议指出，宏观政策要持续发力、适时加力。要落实落细更加积极的财政政策和适度宽松的货币政策， 充分释放政策效应。加快政府债券发行使用，提高资金使用效率。兜牢基层"三保"底线。货币政策要保 持流动性充裕，促进社会综合融资成本下行。用好各项结构性货币政策工具，加力支持科技创新、提振 消费、小微企业、稳定外贸等。 中信建投认为，会议对今年以来积极政策的成效给予充分肯定，要求继续落实落细既定政策，继续释放 政策效应，并未对增量政策进行安排。原因在于上半年我国GDP增长5.3%，远高于政府预期目标，且 年内项目类专项债发行提速、结构性货币政策工具加力投放均还有空间，因此没有必要安排增量政策。 中信建投同时强调，这并不意味着下半年必然不会有增量政策 ...

Group 1 - The project is the first successfully approved and established asset-backed securities (ABS) project for holding-type real estate in an industrial park in China, with a total issuance scale of 660 million RMB [1] - The project expands the asset categories in the holding-type real estate ABS market, adding diverse and high-quality investment targets to the capital market, and innovatively explores the asset securitization path for revitalizing quality state-owned assets [1] - The underlying asset, the National Sensor Information Industrial Park, is a key carrier of the Wuxi Economic Development Zone's industrial planning, focusing on smart connected vehicles, sensors, and the Internet of Things [1][2] Group 2 - The park has received multiple honors, including the National Intelligent Transportation Industrial Park and the National-level Technology Business Incubator, and has gathered over 60 large-scale enterprises, demonstrating significant industrial agglomeration effects [2] - The park is managed by Future Technology Innovation and Taihu Sensing, providing a solid underlying asset support and continuous operational guarantee for the establishment of this ABS [2]

Economic Performance - The U.S. GDP for Q2 2025 showed a quarter-on-quarter annualized growth rate of 3.0%, exceeding the expected 2.4% and rebounding from a previous decline of -0.5% in Q1[2] - Year-on-year GDP growth remained stable at 2.0%, consistent with the previous quarter[2] Consumption and Trade - Personal consumption increased from a previous annualized rate of 0.5% in Q1 to 1.4% in Q2, contributing 1.0 percentage points to GDP growth[2] - Net exports improved significantly due to a sharp decline in imports, which fell from an annualized rate of 37.9% to -30.3%, raising the contribution to GDP from -4.6% to 5.0%[2] Investment Trends - Private investment saw a dramatic decline, with an annualized rate dropping from 23.8% in Q1 to -15.6% in Q2, negatively impacting GDP by 3.1 percentage points[2] - Residential investment continued to decline, with an annualized rate of -4.6% in Q2, reflecting ongoing pressures from high mortgage rates and immigration policies[2] Government Spending - Government spending rebounded to an annualized growth rate of 0.4% in Q2, driven primarily by increased defense spending and state/local government hiring[2] - State and local government expenditures rose from 2.0% in Q1 to 3.0% in Q2, indicating a positive trend in public sector investment[2] Market Reactions - Following the GDP release, market expectations for interest rate cuts diminished, leading to an increase in the U.S. dollar index and bond yields, while gold prices fell[2] - The Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index improved, reaching 61.8 in July, indicating a recovery in consumer confidence[2]