今天又超过4000家公司下跌，大跌的公司其实并不多，但最近的盘面，就是持续的阴跌，其难受程度，远不如4月给人一个痛快。 从10月至今，市场超过3000家公司是大跌的，涨10个点以上的公司1100家（10个点以内可以理解为震荡行情）。如果我们按10月至 今的区间最高价算到昨天收盘价，回撤10个点以上的公司有3300家，回撤超过15个点的有2049家，回撤超过20个点的有1024只。 所以，这段时间，虽然上证指数回撤并没有多少，但应该不少人的回撤是很大的。 如果配了港股，那会更加悲剧，因为就恒生科技指数来说，最高下来回撤了近20%，个股回撤2、30个点的一抓一大把，说港股一脚 已经踏入熊市，都不算过分的。 这就引出了一个灵魂问题：牛市到底还在不在？ 我们从这波回撤的原因，当前的市场环境来讨论这个问题。 01 高位很高，低位不济 10月至今这波回撤，要说原因的话，我觉得就是8个字，高位很高，低位不济。 10月之前，创新药猛猛涨了一波，半导体猛猛涨了一波，AI猛猛涨了一波。这些方向的估值都非常高，如果没有更新的进展来打鸡 血，震荡消化估值是不可避免的。像光模块方向因为实不实又被美帝那边的进展打下鸡血，还有铜铝也加上了 ...

Core Viewpoint - The current market environment is characterized by a significant number of companies experiencing declines, with over 3,000 companies seeing substantial drops since October, despite the Shanghai Composite Index showing limited retreat [4][5]. Market Performance - Since October, more than 3,000 companies have faced significant declines, with 1,100 companies rising by over 10%. A total of 3,300 companies have retreated by more than 10%, 2,049 by over 15%, and 1,024 by over 20% [4]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has seen a nearly 20% drop, with individual stocks experiencing declines of 20-30% [5]. Market Sentiment - The question of whether a bull market still exists is raised, with the current sentiment suggesting a struggle due to high valuations and weak fundamentals [6][7]. Reasons for Market Retreat - The recent market retreat is attributed to high valuations in sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and AI, which have not seen new developments to justify their prices [9]. - The consumer sector, particularly in areas like liquor, has also shown weakness, with companies like Moutai hitting new lows [11]. Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment remains weak, with indicators such as PMI orders declining and consumer spending showing no signs of recovery [14]. - Predictions indicate that housing prices may continue to decline, impacting household wealth and consumer confidence [15][17]. Future Outlook - The government is expected to increase liquidity support, especially with the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and domestic economic conferences [18][19]. - The technology sector is anticipated to remain a focal point, with potential opportunities for bottom-fishing in specific segments [20]. - The market may experience a difficult period for another half month, but the bull market is still considered to be intact, pending macroeconomic support [23].

Core Insights - The report by Morgan Asset Management highlights a complex yet opportunity-rich environment as investors approach 2026, driven by AI technology and influenced by global trade and geopolitical dynamics [1] Economic Outlook - The global economy is expected to exhibit a "strong first, weak later" growth pattern, with different economies showcasing their unique narratives [1] - China is entering the first year of its "15th Five-Year Plan," focusing on "de-involution" and industrial upgrades, which are expected to foster new growth momentum [1] - The U.S. may experience moderate growth as fiscal stimulus effects wane, with the pace of monetary policy shifts being a critical variable [1] - Europe faces a delicate balance between fiscal expansion and debt discipline [1] - Emerging markets in Asia are poised to benefit from deep integration into the global AI supply chain, presenting unique development opportunities [1] Investment Strategy - Future investment returns will increasingly depend on a profound understanding of global growth disparities and policy rhythms, alongside flexible cross-market allocation capabilities [2] - Morgan Asset Management emphasizes the importance of global allocation capabilities, leveraging its research network and local insights to identify high-quality companies with long-term growth potential [2] - Key sectors for investment include technology, industrials, communication services, and materials, with a focus on companies that can translate technology into business value, such as AI firms and traditional industry leaders undergoing digital transformation [2] AI and Market Dynamics - The rapid development of AI applications is significantly increasing spending on software, hardware, and cloud resources, creating opportunities for tech providers while raising concerns about infrastructure bottlenecks and rising costs [3] - AI is expected to disrupt traditional business models, with the rise of physical AI applications like autonomous vehicles and robots further expanding its impact [3] - Investors are advised to discern which AI models and large-scale cloud service providers are likely to succeed [3]

行业配置方面，该机构预计，在日历效应及美联储降息周期叠加影响下，12月科技成长、部分周期和消 费可能相对占优，建议继续均衡配置：一是政策和产业趋势向上的电子（半导体、AI硬件）、通信 （AI硬件）、传媒（AI应用、游戏）、计算机（AI应用）、电新（储能、锂电）、创新药、机械设备 （机器人）等行业；二是可能补涨和基本面可能边际改善的消费（食品、商贸零售等）、大金融、军工 （商业航天）等行业。 华金证券发布研报称，12月A股可能震荡偏强，上行趋势不变。理由在于，12月政策和外部事件可能偏 积极，流动性可能进一步宽松，且经济和企业盈利可能延续弱修复趋势。 上证报中国证券网讯（记者 严晓菲）华金证券发布研报称，12月A股可能震荡偏强，上行趋势不变。理 由在于，12月政策和外部事件可能偏积极，流动性可能进一步宽松，且经济和企业盈利可能延续弱修复 趋势。 ...

今天分享的是：自免行业报告(二)：PROTAC实现"0-1"突破，看好自免口服破局潜力 报告共计：43页 PROTAC技术发展与自免领域应用潜力总结 本报告聚焦PROTAC（蛋白降解靶向嵌合体）技术，深入分析其机制优势、行业现状及在自身免疫性疾病（自免）领域的应用潜力。 PROTAC通过双功能小分子将目标蛋白与细胞内E3泛素连接酶拉近，借助泛素蛋白酶体系统降解目标蛋白，具备独特优势：可靶向传统小分子抑制剂难以作 用的"不可成药"蛋白，能克服靶点突变或表达上调导致的耐药性，且因催化特性具有高选择性和低剂量优势，除肿瘤外，在自免疾病等领域展现出广阔应用 前景。目前约80%的临床PROTAC针对癌症，技术整体处于早期阶段，分子结构设计仍有较大迭代空间。 与竞争激烈的肿瘤领域不同，自免口服药物市场尚处蓝海，尤其皮肤科药物市场潜力巨大。2023年银屑病整体市场规模达270亿美金，口服药物仅占9%，据 预测，2034年左右其市占率有望提升至33%。自免领域仍有大量未被满足的需求，约50%-70%的银屑病/IBD患者未接受先进疗法，且75%的注射性药物使用 者愿意切换至口服药物，而PROTAC兼具类生物制剂的疗效与安全性， ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong innovative drug sector continues to adjust, with leading stocks collectively declining and the Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF (520880) falling over 1% for four consecutive days, despite strong buying interest in the market [1] - The launch of the China Drug Price Registration System on December 2 is expected to benefit the global market development of innovative drugs [1] - Analysts believe that the trend of the innovative drug industry will remain unchanged by 2026, indicating potential for rebound after the current adjustments [1] Group 2 - Investment in innovative drugs can be primarily directed towards the Hong Kong Stock Connect innovative drug ETF (520880) and its off-market linked fund (025221), which have three major advantages in their underlying index [1] - As of November 30, the ETF has a scale of 2.142 billion yuan, with an average daily trading volume of 458 million yuan since its listing [1]

12月3日，港股创新药板块延续调整态势，龙头股集体飘绿，百济神州、信达生物、石药集团齐跌逾 1%，中国生物制药、三生制药跌超2%。 港股通创新药ETF（520880）超7成仓位押注创新药龙头股，持续水下震荡，截至发稿跌逾1%，连续第 4日下跌。不过场内延续宽幅溢价，显示买盘资金相对强势。 | | | 分时 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 · | | | F9 發前盘后 發加 九越 画坊 丁具 @ (2) | | | 港股通创新药ETF O | | 520880 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 520880[種腔通创新药ETF] 13:19 价 0.553 涨跌 -0.007(-1.25%) 均价 0.556 成交量 | | | | | | | | | 0.570 | | | | | | | | 05 | | -0.007 -1.25% | | 0,567 | | | | | | | 1.2496 | SSE CNY 13:19:54 文明中 | | # ■ Z 版 O+1 | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is buoyed by the sentiment and policy expectations from the mainland, particularly in technology and consumer sectors, leading to improved valuation expectations for mainland companies listed in Hong Kong [1] Group 1: Market Trends - The mainland's proactive policies on technological independence and consumer stimulation significantly enhance the valuation expectations for technology and consumer companies listed in Hong Kong [1] - The technology growth sector is expected to continue being a market focus due to the clear policy direction from the government promoting technological self-reliance [1] - A structural differentiation in the market is anticipated, with hotspots likely to concentrate in specific areas that benefit from policy catalysts and industrial breakthroughs [1] Group 2: Sector Performance - Benefiting from the mainland's policy support in technology and consumption, related sectors are expected to continue their recovery trend [1] - The development of Hong Kong's own biotechnology industry may also present structural opportunities [1] Group 3: Investment Products - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (513020) tracks the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index (931573), covering core assets in the Hong Kong market such as internet, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new energy vehicles [1] - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index has a higher allocation in new energy vehicles and innovative pharmaceuticals compared to the Hang Seng Technology Index [1] - From the base date at the end of 2014 to October 2025, the cumulative return of the Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index is 256.46%, outperforming the Hang Seng Technology Index by nearly 160% [1]

投创新药，首选同类最大港股通创新药ETF（520880）及其场外联接基金（025221），标的指数恒生港 股通创新药精选指数具备三大独特优势： 1、纯粹，全面。不含CXO，纯正创新药！全面覆盖创新药研发类公司。 2、龙头占比大。前十大创新药龙头权重超72%，表征创新药硬核力量。 3、风险更可控。对流动性较差的成份股强制降权，有力管控尾部风险。 | | | 港股通创新药ETF (520880) 标的指数 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 前十成份股权重高达72.57%，龙头优势显著 | | | 代码 | 简称 | 权重(%) | 总市值(亿港元) | | 6160.HK | 百济神州 | 11.51 | 3,070 | | 1801.HK | 信达生物 | 10.19 | 1,613 | | 1177.HK | 中国生物制药 | 9.47 | 1,323 | | 9926.HK | 康方生物 | 66'8 | 1,132 | | 1093.HK | 石药编团 | 8.39 | 911 | | 1530.HK | 三生制药 | 8.32 | 760 | | 3692.HK | ...

Market Overview - The A-share market struggled to maintain the 3900-point level, experiencing weak fluctuations and a decline in trading volume to approximately 1.6 trillion yuan, indicating low market sentiment [1] - As the year-end approaches, investor participation has decreased, leading to a shrinking trading volume and a cautious market atmosphere [1] - The market is expected to remain in a consolidation phase for the next few weeks, with potential upward movement as conditions improve [1] Future Outlook - The market is anticipated to experience fluctuations around the 4000-point level, which may prepare for a new upward phase [1] - Key focus areas for November include the impact of the 14th Five-Year Plan on industries, event-driven dynamics in the technology sector, and price recovery driven by anti-involution trends [1] Sector Highlights - In December, sectors benefiting from dividends and price increases are expected to outperform, with short-term attention on banking, public utilities, coal, and non-ferrous metals [2] - Technology remains a primary focus for 2026, with particular attention on AI, lithium batteries, military industry, and robotics [2] - The trend of AI hardware is solidifying, with increasing token usage in major AI models, indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026 [2] - The domestic production of robots is expected to expand, with opportunities arising in sensors, controllers, and dexterous hands as the market evolves [2] - The semiconductor industry is moving towards domestic production, with a focus on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] - The military sector is expected to see a recovery in orders, with signs of bottoming out in the performance of various military sub-sectors [2] - The innovative drug sector is entering a recovery phase after nearly four years of adjustment, with positive net profit growth expected to continue into 2026 [2]