Key Points - The report emphasizes an overweight rating for the consumer services sector, highlighting a new phase of travel transformation driven by high demand for themed tourism [1][5] - The consumer services index has shown stability with a slight decline of 3.43% as of June 13, 2025, underperforming the CSI 300 index [7][16] - The report suggests that the consumer services industry is experiencing a trend of increasing volume but decreasing prices, leading to greater pressure on corporate profitability and necessitating transformation [7][68] Sector Investment Strategy Consumer Services Sector Overview - The consumer services index has been relatively stable since the beginning of 2025, with a recent underperformance compared to the CSI 300 index [16][17] - The tourism and hospitality sectors have weakened due to declining per capita travel spending [7][16] Tourism and OTA - Domestic travel demand has rebounded significantly, with 1.794 billion domestic trips in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 26.43% [25] - The average travel expenditure per person in Q1 2025 was 1,003.34 yuan, indicating a decline from previous trends due to the rapid increase in travel frequency [25][26] - The report anticipates that the demand for self-driving and short-distance travel will continue to rise, with a focus on experiential tourism rather than traditional sightseeing [25][69] Duty-Free Sector - The duty-free market in Hainan has seen a decline in sales, but the rate of decline is narrowing, with sales of 13.33 billion yuan in the first four months of 2025, down 10.75% year-on-year [32][33] - The report notes that the average spending per customer in Hainan's duty-free shopping has rebounded, reaching 8,319 yuan, a 25.11% increase compared to the previous year [33] - The international travel market is recovering, benefiting airport duty-free shops, with significant growth in international passenger traffic at major airports [37][38] Hotel Sector - The hotel industry is facing increased competition due to rapid supply growth, with the number of hotel facilities reaching 570,100 by the end of 2024, a 6.87% decrease year-on-year [42][44] - The report highlights that leading hotel groups are maintaining strong performance despite price competition primarily affecting budget hotels [42][51] - The expansion of chain hotels in lower-tier markets is expected to continue, with major hotel groups increasing their market presence [54][55] Human Resources Services - The report indicates a slight increase in employment pressure, particularly among recent graduates, with policies aimed at promoting employment expected to be introduced [57][61] - The human resources service market is projected to grow, with a market size of 2.76 trillion yuan in 2023, expected to reach 5.03 trillion yuan by 2028 [65][66] - The integration of AI in human resources services is anticipated to enhance efficiency in recruitment and management processes [66][67] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on sectors with strong demand, such as scenic spots and OTA, as well as the hotel sector, which is expected to expand despite competitive pressures [68][69] - Specific stocks to watch include Long White Mountain (603099), Emei Mountain A (000888), and China Duty Free (601888) [69]

Investment Rating - The report rates the social services industry as "Overweight" indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights the resurgence of instant film photography, particularly the popularity of "Peel Apart" film and the new "Life Four Frames" photo booths, driven by nostalgia and unique consumer experiences [5][11]. - The scarcity of Peel Apart film, with global inventory dropping below 500,000 boxes, has led to a dramatic price increase, with prices soaring from around 65-70 RMB per pack to 2800-3300 RMB on second-hand platforms, earning it the nickname "Paper Moutai" [9][11]. - The "Life Four Frames" photo booths have modernized the traditional photo booth experience, offering various backgrounds and instant photo printing, appealing to younger consumers [11][12]. Summary by Sections 1. New Trends in Photography - Peel Apart film has gained immense popularity due to its unique aesthetic and the limited availability of products from major manufacturers like Polaroid and Fujifilm, which have ceased production [8][9]. - The "Life Four Frames" photo booths have evolved from traditional photo booths, providing a more interactive and customizable experience for users [11]. 2. Market Performance Review - The social services sector saw a 2.09% increase in its index from June 2 to June 6, outperforming the broader market [13]. - Key stocks in the social services sector, such as ST United and Jinling Hotel, experienced significant gains, with increases of 21.46% and 11.87% respectively [18]. 3. Company Announcements - Companies in the retail and social services sectors are actively engaging in stock buybacks and shareholder reduction plans, indicating a focus on enhancing shareholder value [26][27]. 4. Industry Developments - The report notes significant developments in the social services industry, including record passenger numbers during the Dragon Boat Festival, showcasing a recovery in travel and tourism [30]. - The introduction of new technologies and partnerships, such as the investment in Acai Travel by Amadeus, reflects ongoing innovation within the industry [30]. 5. Valuation of Key Companies - The report provides a detailed valuation of key companies in the human resources, tourism, and hotel sectors, indicating a favorable outlook for these industries as they recover from previous downturns [32][33].

6月4-5日，国家统计局党组书记、局长康义一行赴海南调研消费统计工作。康义在海南实地走访了中免 国际免税城、荣山寮村、华彩旅业、骑楼老街等，详细了解海南不同消费业态发展情况及统计情况，并 出席消费统计座谈会，与海南省相关部门就消费统计工作进行深入交流。他指出，消费是我国经济增长 的重要引擎，做好消费统计工作非常重要。要深入研究分析消费领域的新趋势新特点，加紧推进全口径 消费统计工作，加强消费领域统计指标解读宣传，及时客观反映消费市场运行情况，为党中央科学决策 提供可靠统计依据。(智通财经) ...

Group 1 - The Hong Kong consumer sector is actively performing, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Consumer Theme Index showing a strong upward trend [1] - The Hong Kong Consumer ETF (159735) increased by 1.36%, with a trading volume exceeding 27 million and a turnover rate over 4% [1] - Key stocks in the consumer sector include Smoore International, XPeng Motors, Pop Mart, Geely Automobile, Li Auto, and Xiaomi, all showing significant gains [1] Group 2 - The Ministry of Commerce has launched the 2025 "Service Consumption Season" to promote integrated development in various sectors such as tourism, food, sports, and digital services [1] - The initiative aims to stimulate service consumption through promotional activities, experience events, and skill competitions, enhancing supply quality and unlocking consumption potential [1] - Citic Securities forecasts a high certainty of continued leisure tourism demand into 2025, with a focus on the recovery of the service sector and experience-based consumption [2] - Citic Jian Investment highlights the stable performance of the food and beverage sector in Q1, with a positive outlook on the recovery of consumption driven by government initiatives [2]

Group 1 - Ctrip's report indicates that during the Dragon Boat Festival in 2025, domestic surrounding and local travel will account for 64% of total travel [1] - Family-oriented travel is becoming the main force for the Dragon Boat Festival, with nearly 90% of the top 50 scenic spots being family-friendly, and family orders making up 25% of overall travel orders [1] - There is a significant increase in inbound travel, with orders rising by nearly 90% and ticket GMV for inbound travel soaring 1.5 times year-on-year [1] Group 2 - Wanlian Securities highlights that various sectors in the service industry are experiencing growth opportunities this year, driven by the implementation and optimization of vacation policies [1] - The expansion of inbound consumption is expected to bring new growth points to the duty-free industry, while the improvement of county-level commercial systems benefits the hotel and chain restaurant sectors [1] - The education sector is anticipated to become a representative application area for artificial intelligence, with a focus on tourism, duty-free, hotels, restaurants, and education leaders [1] Group 3 - Dongguan Securities notes that the tourism and travel sector is seeing a steady increase in per capita consumption during holidays, which may help reverse the "busy but not profitable" situation [2] - The combination of domestic demand expansion policies and the continuous rise in outbound travel is expected to support the bottom recovery of the tourism and travel sector in the long term [2] - Recommended stocks include Songcheng Performance, Changbai Mountain, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, Zhongxin Tourism, Shoulu Hotel, Junting Hotel, and Tongqinglou, focusing on scenic area companies, hotel groups in lower-tier markets, and tourism service companies benefiting from domestic and inbound travel recovery [2]

免税购物方面，海控免税提供50元无门槛消费券;地产楼盘方面，持卡可额外享受购房总价0.2%的 优惠折扣(包含豪庭铭苑、海控·翰林府等项目);酒店民宿方面，持卡消费者可享客房、餐饮专属折扣， 优惠低至4.2折(包括海控瑶城民宿、三亚凤凰机场酒店、海口美兰机场酒店等);商超零售和特色餐饮方 面，日月广场提供290元现金抵用套券。 后续，"嗨控购优惠卡"将持续更新优惠权益，通过品类丰富的权益折扣让利于消费者，多措并举提 振消费信心、激发消费活力。 "嗨控购优惠卡"权益于5月31日正式启用，用户可登录"海控通"小程序，一键注册成功即可领取优 惠权益，前往商户出示优惠信息即可核销使用。"嗨控购优惠卡"首批准备了1万张实体卡，在海口美兰 机场、三亚凤凰机场、海口日月广场等地设置推广点位，线下扫码注册可领取实体卡。 助力提振消费，海南控股推出"嗨控购优惠卡" 消费者可享免税购物等五大品类折扣优惠 海南日报海口5月30日讯(海南日报全媒体记者 邵长春)海南省发展控股有限公司助力全省提振消费 再出新招，5月30日，该公司将海控系统14家商家超60项权益集成后推出"嗨控购优惠卡"，单张卡累计 权益价值超万元，真金白银让利消费者。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Duty Free Group (CDF) is redefining the duty-free shopping experience by integrating traditional cultural elements with modern consumer engagement strategies, enhancing both emotional value and shopping experience [1][6]. Group 1: Cultural Integration and Consumer Experience - CDF's Global Enjoyment Season features a cultural immersion experience centered around floral themes, creating aesthetically pleasing shopping environments across its stores [2]. - The "Flower Garden" at CDF Haikou International Duty Free City offers a unique experience with traditional Chinese floral makeup and themed photo opportunities, attracting significant consumer interest [2][5]. - The company is focusing on creating differentiated consumer experiences around key events like Labor Day, Mother's Day, and 520, enhancing emotional connections through themed activities [5][6]. Group 2: Service Enhancement and Consumer Engagement - CDF has improved service offerings in response to the tourism surge during the Labor Day holiday, providing exclusive member benefits and convenient facilities [8]. - The introduction of immediate pickup for duty-free purchases allows consumers to enjoy a seamless shopping experience without needing to leave the island [8]. Group 3: Promotional Strategies and Consumer Incentives - Throughout May, CDF implemented a comprehensive promotional strategy using government vouchers and a points system to stimulate consumer spending across all platforms [9]. - The company offered various discounts and cashback incentives to attract both domestic and international consumers, ensuring broad market coverage [9]. Group 4: Future Initiatives - As the Global Enjoyment Season concludes, CDF is preparing for upcoming events like the Dragon Boat Festival, continuing to blend cultural elements with commercial offerings [11]. - The company aims to deepen the integration of culture into its business model, fostering a sense of cultural identity among consumers while providing high-quality products and services [11].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the social services industry [1] Core Insights - The overall revenue of the sector is steadily increasing, but the recovery in performance is slower, with significant differentiation among sub-sectors. Attention is recommended for cyclical recovery sectors such as human resources and exhibitions, as well as resilient sectors like tourism and scenic spots [1][2] - In 2024, the social services sector achieved a total revenue of 191.54 billion, a year-on-year increase of 36.57%, while the net profit attributable to shareholders was 7.48 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 18.21%. The overall profitability has declined [10][14] - In Q1 2025, the sector generated a revenue of 44.84 billion, a year-on-year increase of 38.75%, with a net profit of 1.81 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33.06% [20][22] Summary by Sections Sector Summary - The revenue growth rate outperformed the profit growth rate, with the professional services and education sectors performing better. In 2024, the professional services sector saw a year-on-year increase of 79.57%, while the education sector's profit level improved significantly [10][14] - In Q1 2025, the professional services sector led with a revenue growth of 89.62%, followed by tourism and scenic spots at 7.39% [22] Tourism - The domestic travel market shows strong resilience, with a total of 5.615 billion domestic tourists in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.80% [34] - The cross-border travel market is experiencing high demand, with inbound tourists reaching 132 million in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 60.8% [40] Hotels - Business travel demand is still recovering, with the RevPAR expected to be under pressure throughout 2024 [13] Catering - The catering market is expected to see slower revenue growth in 2024, with Q1 2025 showing some improvement [16] Duty-Free - Duty-free sales in offshore areas are showing marginal improvement, with city channels expected to contribute to growth [18] Human Resources - The human resources sector is experiencing stable data operations, but employment market pressures remain [22] Exhibitions - The domestic exhibition market is steadily growing, with the number of exhibitions remaining stable in 2024 [24]

最近全球资本市场的"风向标"突然变了！欧洲央行暗示年内降息，美联储通胀数据缓和，市场对6月暂停加息、 下半年降息的预期迅速升温。 这一变化直接带动了外资加速回流A股，哪些方向值得布局？ 欧洲央行"松口"，释放降息信号 5月22日，欧洲央行行长拉加德在讲话中明确表示："通胀已进入下降阶段"，市场将其解读为6月可能开启降息的 信号。 受此影响，欧元区债券收益率全线下跌，德国10年期国债收益率一度跌破2.4%，为近8个月来最低水平。 美联储通胀降温，但"鹰鸽博弈"持续 美国4月CPI同比上涨4.9%（前值5%），核心CPI录得5.5%，虽连续10个月回落，但仍高于美联储2%的目标。 资料来源：WIND、美国劳工部、长城证券产业金融研究院； 不过，市场更关注的是"薪资增速放缓"和"商品通胀降温"信号。芝商所数据显示：市场预计美联储6月维持利率 不变的概率升至80%，9月降息概率超过50%。 国际投资环境的变化直接带动了外资加速回流A股—— 北向资金"买买买"，单周净流入超300亿 截至5月20日当周，北向资金连续8天净买入，单周净流入达320亿元，创下年内新高。从持仓方向看，外资正从 传统的金融、能源板块转向科技与消 ...

Group 1: Consumer Market Trends - The consumer market is experiencing strong performance driven by favorable policies and industry recovery signals, with a 5.1% year-on-year increase in retail sales in April [1] - The "old-for-new" policy is expanding to include various consumer goods, stimulating demand for durable goods and promoting technological upgrades [1] - New consumption trends are emerging, focusing on emotional value and personalized experiences, reflecting a shift in consumer habits [3] Group 2: Policy and Events - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have launched the "Buy in China" initiative, focusing on four key areas to enhance the consumer market [2] - The annual "618" shopping festival has shown impressive sales growth, with over 1.3 million brands doubling their sales in the first hour of the event [2] Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Three key investment directions in the consumer sector include essential consumption with strong defensive value, the rapid rise of new consumption formats, and the growth potential in lower-tier markets [4] - Companies in the jewelry, retail, cosmetics, and medical beauty sectors are highlighted as having strong growth potential and brand competitiveness [4] Group 4: Company Performance - Mao Geping's revenue increased by 34.6% year-on-year, with a target price raised by 53% to HKD 127, reflecting strong growth potential [5] - Lao Pu Gold's brand value and market positioning are emphasized, with a target price of HKD 857 based on high performance growth certainty [6] - Pop Mart's target price has been raised by 9.8% to HKD 224, with sales and net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 also increased [7]