Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [5] Core Views - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on sub-sectors with performance elasticity during the upcoming Spring Festival peak season, including duty-free, certain scenic spots, supermarkets, and gold jewelry [9] - It suggests that the recent fundamentals of duty-free and travel chains have improved, warranting ongoing observation and validation [9] - For 2026, the report recommends focusing on service consumption and product consumption, particularly in the duty-free and travel chain sectors, as well as the gold jewelry sector and Miniso, which have high valuation attractiveness [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Retail Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Gold Jewelry: - Lao Feng Xiang: Expected net profit growth of -15% to 5% - Zhou Da Sheng: Expected net profit growth of 15% to 30% - Chao Hong Ji: Forecasted net profit of 436 million to 533 million, a year-on-year increase of 125% to 175% - Cai Bai Co.: Expected net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion, corresponding to a growth of 150% to 254% - Yu Garden Co.: Forecasted loss of 4.312 billion, primarily due to asset impairment provisions [1] - Trendy Toys: - Miniso: Expected revenue growth of 25% to 30%, with adjusted operating profit and net profit growth of 10% to 20% [1] Supermarket and Department Store Outlook for Q4 2025 - Chongqing Department Store: Expected net profit of 1.021 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.4% - Wangfujing: Expected net profit of -45 million to -23 million, with a growth rate of -6.6% to 7.3% - Yonghui Supermarket: Expected loss of 2.14 billion, with a growth rate of -3.1% - Jiajiayue: Expected net profit of 198 million to 228 million, growth of 50.1% to 72.8% - Hongqi Chain: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 0% [2] Cross-Border and E-commerce Outlook for Q4 2025 - Small Commodity City: Expected net profit growth of 5% to 15% - Anker Innovation: Expected net profit growth of 10% to 20% - Saiwei Times: Expected net profit of 90 million to 130 million - Huakai Yibai: Expected net profit of 80 million to 110 million, driven by improved operational efficiency [3] Social Services Sector Outlook for Q4 2025 - Duty-Free: China Duty-Free Group: Expected net profit growth of 29% to 173% - Tourism: - Songcheng Performance: Expected net profit growth of -204% to 294% - Tianmu Lake: Expected net profit growth of -10% to 5% [4] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Small Commodity City, China Duty-Free, Huazhu Group, Shoulu Hotel, Jinjiang Hotel, Chao Hong Ji, Jiuhua Tourism, Ruoyu Chen, Qingmu Technology, and Miniso, while also keeping an eye on other companies with potential [10]

正值海南自贸港封关运作稳步推进的关键阶段，海控全球精品免税城迎来五周年华诞。1月31日，以"无限热爱·'5'出精彩"为主题的五周年店庆盛典启幕，作 为封关运作后免税行业标杆性庆典活动，海控免税以"十重礼遇"回馈消费者，通过线上线下全渠道联动，生动展现自贸港新阶段下免税行业的蓬勃活力与发 展潜力。 "封关后免税商品品类更丰富、价格更实惠，这次店庆秒杀抢到心仪手机，节省近千元。"来自广东的游客张先生的感受，正是自贸港免税消费升级的生动写 照。此外，抖音、美团等平台同步上线"百万补贴"计划，涵盖数码、黄金及通用券等多重福利，通过"线上囤券、线下核销"模式，打通线上线下消费链路， 进一步提升免税购物的便利化与多元化水平。 海控免税相关负责人表示，"无限热爱·'5'出精彩"的主题，既贴合年轻世代消费情感与价值认同，也契合封关后自贸港消费新趋势。通过数字化手段实现全 渠道融合，联动主流互联网平台拓展消费场景，引入潮玩、街舞赛事等年轻化IP，打造"免税+文旅"新消费模式，旨在吸引年轻客群，推动海南免税从购物 场所向生活方式升级地标转型。 作为海南自贸港封关运作后的首个店庆活动，此次盛典具有里程碑意义。海控免税相关负责人表示 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The civil aviation sector is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes during the Spring Festival [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to the upcoming holiday and improved vacation policies [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold sector as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The report notes a significant increase in domestic flight ticket bookings, with over 7.16 million tickets reserved as of January 29, 2026, reflecting a year-on-year growth of approximately 16% [4]. - International flight bookings also show slight growth, with over 1.72 million tickets reserved [4]. Retail Sector Insights - The report cites a Bain & Company report indicating a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, although this represents a significant improvement compared to the previous year's decline [4]. Company Announcements - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. expects a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Cuihua Jewelry forecasts a net profit of 21 million to 31 million RMB for 2025, a decrease of 85.69% to 90.31% compared to the previous year [4]. Key Stock Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks across various sectors, including: - Hotels: Huazhu Group, ShouLai Hotel, JinJiang Hotels [4]. - Duty-free: China Duty Free Group [4]. - Scenic spots: Emei Mountain A, Jiuhua Tourism, Huangshan Tourism [4]. - Gold sector: Cai Bai Co., Luk Fook Holdings, Lao Pu Gold [4]. - AI and new consumption: Kangnait Optical, Huatu Shanding, Tianli International Holdings [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Accumulate" rating for the industry [4]. Core Insights - The upcoming Spring Festival is expected to see record-high passenger transport volumes in civil aviation [2]. - The report highlights optimism for travel-related sectors, including hotels, duty-free shops, and scenic spots, due to improved vacation policies and anti-monopoly measures in online travel agencies (OTAs) [4]. - The report suggests selecting short-term outperformers in the gold market, as the recent surge in gold prices may be ending [4]. - AI applications and undervalued new consumption sectors are also recommended for investment [4]. Industry Updates - The State Council issued a plan to accelerate the cultivation of new growth points in service consumption, urging local governments to enhance policy design and support measures [4]. - As of January 29, 2026, domestic flight ticket bookings for the Spring Festival exceeded 7.16 million, with a daily average increase of approximately 16% year-on-year [4]. - Retail sector insights indicate a 3% to 5% contraction in China's personal luxury goods market in 2025, showing signs of recovery compared to a significant decline in 2024 [4]. Company Performance Forecasts - Cai Bai Co. expects a net profit of 1.06 billion to 1.23 billion RMB for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 47.43% to 71.07% [4]. - Lai Shen Tong Ling anticipates a turnaround with a projected net profit of 58 million RMB for 2025, compared to a loss of 184 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - Yu Garden Co. forecasts a net loss of approximately 4.8 billion RMB for 2025, a significant decline from a profit of 125 million RMB in the previous year [4]. - The report includes various companies with "Accumulate" ratings, such as Zhou Dafu, Cai Bai Co., and others, with detailed profit forecasts and valuation metrics [5].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The duty-free industry is experiencing significant changes, with cosmetics leading the category at 45% of sales by 2025, followed by jewelry at approximately 20% and a notable increase in gold sales due to new investment policies. However, the import of gold bars will be suspended by the end of 2025, leading to a decrease in mobile phone sales to around 14% and clothing and accessories at 12% [1][4][19]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Sales Growth Factors**: The increase in average transaction value in 2025 is primarily concentrated in Q4, driven by the launch of the iPhone 15, the National Day holiday effect, and the influx of customers due to the December closure. This upward trend is expected to continue into 2026, supported by increased visitor flow and a willingness to purchase high-ticket items [1][5]. - **Market Share Dynamics**: Sanya dominates the duty-free market with over 50% of sales, while China Duty Free Group (CDFG) holds an 80% market share, with pure duty-free sales reaching 85%. Other players like Wangfujing are on the rise, while Haikou's performance is declining [1][6]. - **Sales Projections for 2026**: The duty-free industry is expected to see high growth rates at the beginning of 2026, particularly during the Spring Festival, with a conservative estimate of at least double-digit growth despite potential limitations in store capacity [1][8][19]. - **New Store Openings**: There are plans for a new duty-free store at Phoenix Airport T3, likely operated by CDFG or Haikou Duty Free. However, the short-term potential for foreign investment in the duty-free market remains low [1][9]. Additional Important Content - **Consumer Behavior**: The average spending per person for outbound tourists is approximately 8,500 yuan, compared to 6,000 yuan for domestic tourists. The gap is narrowing due to increased gold purchases by domestic consumers [15]. - **Government Initiatives**: In 2025, the Hainan government issued 2.1 billion yuan in duty-free consumption vouchers, the largest amount ever. For 2026, additional vouchers are planned to stimulate consumption, particularly in Sanya [17][18]. - **Tax Reform Implications**: There is no clear timeline for tax reform, which could significantly impact the duty-free market. If implemented, it may lead to a loss of competitive advantage for existing duty-free stores as brands could sell directly to consumers [20]. Conclusion The duty-free industry in Hainan is poised for growth, driven by strategic government policies, changing consumer preferences, and market dynamics. However, challenges such as capacity limitations and potential tax reforms could impact future performance.

Core Insights - The Chinese consumer market is transitioning from total expansion to structural differentiation, characterized by an "L-shaped bottoming" trend as of early 2026, with retail sales growth impacted by factors like the timing of the Spring Festival and a decline in promotional activities [1] - A "K-shaped" differentiation is emerging, where resilient "extreme value-for-money" essential consumption contrasts with high-premium emotional consumption, while traditional mid-range discretionary spending faces growth challenges [1][2] - The marginal propensity to consume (MPC) is recovering slowly, reflecting a rational return in middle-class consumption decisions, with consumers being more cautious about non-essential spending but willing to pay premiums for categories that satisfy "self-pleasure" and "social" needs [1] Consumer Trends - In December 2025, restaurant revenue grew by 2.2%, significantly outpacing the 0.7% growth in retail sales, with online food products seeing a remarkable growth of 14.5%, serving as a stabilizing force for overall consumption [2] - Emotional consumption sectors, such as sports entertainment (+9.0%), cultural office supplies (+9.2%), and cosmetics (+8.8%), are experiencing robust growth, contrasting sharply with the downturn in real estate-related sectors like home appliances (-18.7%) and construction decoration (-11.8%) [2] Valuation Insights - Core consumer sectors have fallen to historical low valuations, providing a significant safety margin for investors [3] - As of January 2026, the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for food and beverage is at 7.5%, with liquor even lower at 4.1%, indicating that pessimistic expectations are already priced in, highlighting the long-term value of core assets [4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a "barbell" investment strategy, recommending defensive positions in essential consumption and social service leaders with low valuations and strong cash flows, such as grain and oil, traditional Chinese medicine, and gold jewelry, while also emphasizing their dividend value and defensive attributes [5] - On the offensive side, investors should capture growth sectors benefiting from policy catalysts and fundamental improvements, including the duty-free sector and emotional consumption categories like cosmetics, sports goods, and trendy toys [5] Policy Impact - The first month of the Hainan Free Trade Port's duty-free sales reached 4.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.8%, demonstrating the strong appeal of "zero tariffs and low tax rates" for high-end consumption [6] - China Duty Free Group holds a dominant market share of 78.7% and continues to strengthen its channel and brand barriers through acquisitions and expanding its presence in city stores [7] Emerging Markets - The pet economy is experiencing a "humanization" upgrade, and the "going out" trend in categories like home appliances is also contributing to significant incremental alpha sources [9] - The shift in pet ownership towards viewing pets as family members is driving both volume and price increases, while the home appliance sector leverages China's supply chain advantages to replicate successful "extreme value-for-money" strategies overseas [10] Market Dynamics - Overall, while the total consumption recovery is not steep, the market opportunities are shifting from a "beta market" to "structural alpha" under low valuations and clear structures [11] - Investors are encouraged to abandon linear thinking of a "full recovery" and focus on "dividend assets" and "emotional consumption" as dual main lines, employing a "barbell" strategy to seize certain opportunities amid uncertainty [12]

此外，中国中免拟斥3.95亿美元收购DFS大中华业务，并引入LVMH作为新股东。东吴证券发布研报 称，本次收购是中免的首次跨境并购，中免将进一步强化在港澳地区免税市场的优势地位，整合DFS会 员、品牌和门店资源，拓展海外渠道，推进国际化战略。LVMH作为股东和战略合作方，有利于推进旗 下品牌与中免在各个渠道的进一步合作。 中国中免（601888）(01880)午后涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.85%，报94港元，成交额2.07亿港元。 消息面上，1月21日，财政部等五部门合印发《关于口岸进境免税店有关事宜的通知》，提出在武汉天 河国际机场等41个口岸各新设1家口岸进境免税店，同时调整部分口岸进境免税店。中银国际指出，此 举将增加我国口岸进境免税店数量，覆盖范围将进一步扩大，且有望进一步便利进境旅客免税购物消 费、进一步发挥免税店支持提振消费的作用。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中国中免(01880)午后涨超5%，截至发稿，涨4.85%，报94港元，成交额2.07亿港 元。 消息面上，1月21日，财政部等五部门合印发《关于口岸进境免税店有关事宜的通知》，提出在武汉天 河国际机场等41个口岸各新设1家口岸进境免税店，同时调整部分口岸进境免税店。中银国际指出，此 举将增加我国口岸进境免税店数量，覆盖范围将进一步扩大，且有望进一步便利进境旅客免税购物消 费、进一步发挥免税店支持提振消费的作用。 此外，中国中免拟斥3.95亿美元收购DFS大中华业务，并引入LVMH作为新股东。东吴证券发布研报 称，本次收购是中免的首次跨境并购，中免将进一步强化在港澳地区免税市场的优势地位，整合DFS会 员、品牌和门店资源，拓展海外渠道，推进国际化战略。LVMH作为股东和战略合作方，有利于推进旗 下品牌与中免在各个渠道的进一步合作。 ...

超配（维持） 消费者服务行业 高端零售率先复苏，免税景气向好 免税行业深度报告 2026 年 1 月 28 日 分析师：邓升亮 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523050001 电话：0769-22119410 邮箱： dengshengliang@dgzq.com.cn 中信消费者服务指数走势 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 投资要点： 证 券 研 究 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 深 度 研 究 行 业 研 究 报 告 ◼ 压制中国免税行业崛起的主要因素均被扭转，布局中国免税拐 点。复盘2020年后免税行业的走势，实际上免税走弱是受到了 多重因素的影响。一是疫情期间日韩等国采取了高额返佣的模 式导致竞争压力增加，而国内免税商同样加大了折扣力度导致 利润下降。二是国内居民家庭收入预期出现了阶段性的波动， 暂时影响了消费意愿，导致居民家庭"有钱不敢花"。三是供 给的稀缺，过去中国免税店以海南离岛免税和口岸免税为主， 离岛免税场景过去存在"离岛不离境"的限制，服务的游客数 量 ...

近期江苏、重庆等地推出中小学春秋假，工会鼓励组织春秋游，政策不断落地，板块景气度提升，坚定看好26年 出行产业链投资机会，后续不排除政策层面的催化；下月即将迎来史上最长春节，航旅纵横及旅行社平台预订双 位数增长，板块调整迎来布局良机。 核心推荐：景气度景区：陕西旅游、三峡旅游、黄山旅游、九华旅游；行业触底迎来拐点酒店板块：锦江酒店/首 旅酒店/华住/亚朵；销售数据持续提升中国中免/珠免。 【兴证社服】坚定看好出行产业链，调整即是布局良机 【兴证社服】坚定看好出行产业链，调整即是布局良机 今天市场较大跌幅，过往复盘来看重要节假日前1个月经常出现较大波动，调整系市场正常波动。 今天市场较大跌幅，过往复盘来看重要节假日前1个月经常出现较大波动，调整系市场正常波动。 近期江苏、重庆等地推出中小学春秋假，工会鼓励组织春秋游，政策不断落地，板块景气度提升，坚定看好26年 出行产业链投资机会，后续不排除政策层面的催化；下月即将迎来史上最长春节，航旅纵横及旅行社平台预订双 位数增长，板块调整迎来布局良机。 核心推荐：景 ...