Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Report Date: October 9, 2025 Group 2: BR (Butadiene Rubber) Data Futures Contract Data - On September 29, the closing price of the main contract was 11,340, down 90 from the previous day and 90 from the previous week [3]. - The open interest of the main contract was 38,520, down 1,541 from the previous day and 27,038 from the previous week. - The trading volume of the main contract was 158,160, down 33,594 from the previous day but up 48,380 from the previous week. Inventory and Ratio Data - The warrant quantity was 7,600, down 1,650 from the previous day and 1,590 from the previous week. - The virtual - to - real ratio was 25.36, up 4 from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week. Basis and Spread Data - The butadiene basis was 660, up 90 from the previous day and down 10 from the previous week. - The 10 - 11 spread was 0, unchanged from the previous day and down 15 from the previous week. - The 11 - 12 spread was 5, down 15 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week. Price Data - The Shandong market price was 11,450, down 100 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week. - The Chuanhua market price was 11,350, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week. - The Qilu ex - factory price was 11,500, down 200 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. Processing and Trade Data - The spot processing profit was - 32, down 49 from the previous day but up 205 from the previous week. - The on - disk processing profit was - 142, down 39 from the previous day. - The import profit was - 81,760, up 1,526 from the previous day and 1,265 from the previous week. - The export profit was 90, up 86 from the previous day and 76 from the previous week. Group 3: BD (Butadiene) Data Price Data - The Shandong market price was 9,100, down 50 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week. - The Jiangsu market price was 8,950, down 50 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week. - The Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,000, down 150 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week. Processing and Trade Data - The carbon - four extraction profit was not available after September 29 [3]. - The butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 206, up 20 from the previous day and down 130 from the previous week. - The import profit was 452 (data not fully updated). - The export profit data was incomplete after September 23. Downstream Profit Data - The butadiene - styrene production profit was 875, down 188 from the previous day and 188 from the previous week. - The ABS production profit data was incomplete after September 25. - The SBS production profit (791 - H) was 1,090, up 105 from the previous day and 105 from the previous week. Group 4: Inter - and Intra - Variety Spread Data Inter - Variety Spread - The RU - BR spread was - 23,175, up 1,446 from the previous day and 26,888 from the previous week. - The NR - BR spread was - 26,120, up 1,536 from the previous day and 27,073 from the previous week. - The Thai mixed - butadiene spread was 3,350, up 50 from the previous day and 70 from the previous week. - The 3L - butadiene - styrene spread was 3,200, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week. Intra - Variety Spread - The butadiene - styrene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week. - The butadiene standard - non - standard spread was 250, unchanged from the previous day and up 150 from the previous week.

Core Insights - The article highlights the social practice initiatives undertaken by Qingdao University of Science and Technology, emphasizing the theme of "youth taking responsibility for Chinese-style modernization" and the unique spirit of "rubber character" [1][2]. Group 1: Social Practice Initiatives - The university's social practice is designed to be comprehensive, involving all students and covering various regions, with a focus on empowering student growth and serving societal development [2]. - The practice is divided into five main areas: theoretical promotion, red education, cultural inheritance, rural revitalization, and grassroots service, ensuring a structured approach to student engagement [2]. - A total of 20,948 students participated in the practice across 31 provincial administrative regions and 136 counties, with 17 teams selected for national-level projects and 12 for provincial-level projects [2]. Group 2: Educational Impact - The university aims to integrate social practice into its educational framework, allowing students to deeply understand the contemporary significance of "rubber character" through carefully designed projects [3]. - Various colleges within the university have tailored their practice plans to align with their unique strengths, such as the Mathematics and Physics College's initiative to engage over 300 community members in volunteer activities [3]. Group 3: Personal Development and Career Choices - Students reported transformative experiences during their practices, leading to significant realizations about their career paths, with many expressing a desire to contribute to their communities and serve national needs [6]. - The increasing trend of graduates choosing to work in the western regions and grassroots areas reflects a growing commitment to national service among students [6]. Group 4: Long-term Engagement - The university has established long-term agreements with practice sites to ensure ongoing engagement rather than one-time visits, fostering a sustainable model of service and learning [6]. - The cultivation of "rubber character" among students is seen as essential for their personal growth and their ability to meet national strategic needs [6].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The overall supply - demand pattern of soda ash is still bearish, and a short - selling strategy during rebounds is recommended. For glass, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. In the fourth quarter, the implementation of policies and the load regulation of soda ash plants should be tracked [1]. Logs - The log market is in a volatile pattern. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, the improvement of shipment volume should be observed. Currently, the market lacks a strong upward driving force, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [3]. Industrial Silicon - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the balance is shifting to a more relaxed state. In the short term, the upward driving force is insufficient, and the price may fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and Sichuan - Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [4]. Polysilicon - The supply - side regulation effect of polysilicon is not as expected, and the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. Before the National Day holiday, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Policies on capacity clearance and industry storage, as well as the actual operation rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, should be followed [5]. Natural Rubber - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market has no obvious long - short contradictions, and the trading atmosphere is cautious. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. The raw material output in the peak - production period of the main producing areas and the possible impact of La Nina should be monitored [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in different regions remained unchanged, while glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 declined. Soda ash prices in different regions were stable, and the soda ash 2509 contract decreased slightly. The basis of some contracts increased [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased. Photovoltaic daily melting volume and the price of 3.2mm coated film remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory inventory decreased, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [1]. Market Situation - The over - supply problem still exists. Although the factory inventory has decreased, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches. The weekly production remains high, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. For glass, the deep - processing orders are still weak [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Some log futures contracts fluctuated slightly, and the prices of some spot logs increased. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. Supply - The monthly port shipment volume and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased. The inventory in major ports decreased [3]. Demand - The average daily shipment volume increased [3]. Market Situation - The log market is in a volatile state, with low trading volume. The short - term upward driving force is lacking [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some industrial silicon products decreased slightly, and the basis of some products increased [4]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed significantly [4]. Fundamental Data - The production of industrial silicon, organic silicon DMC, and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon increased [4]. Inventory - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while the inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. The social inventory remained unchanged [4]. Market Situation - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the balance is becoming more relaxed. The price may fluctuate in a certain range in the short term [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon products were mostly stable, and the basis of N - type materials increased [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main futures contract of polysilicon decreased, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon increased. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed [5]. Inventory - The polysilicon inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [5]. Market Situation - The over - capacity problem of polysilicon persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range before the holiday [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some natural rubber products decreased, and the basis and non - standard price difference changed [6]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of natural rubber contracts changed significantly [6]. Fundamental Data - The production of natural rubber in some countries in July changed. The tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber increased [6]. Inventory - The bonded area inventory and factory futures inventory of natural rubber decreased [6]. Market Situation - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market is in a volatile state. The supply may increase due to reduced rainfall in Southeast Asia, and the demand faces export and domestic sales pressure [6].

1. Report Overview - Report Title: Synthetic Rubber Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: September 30, 2025 [2] 2. Core Data Summary 2.1 BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Price and Volume Metrics**: On September 29, the closing price of the main contract was 11,340, down 90 from the previous day and 165 from the previous week; the position of the main contract was 38,220, down 1,541 from the previous day and 31,756 from the previous week; the trading volume was 158,160, down 33,594 from the previous day [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts and Ratios**: The number of warehouse receipts was 7,600, down 1,650 from the previous day and 1,590 from the previous week; the virtual - real ratio was 25.36, up 4 from the previous day and down 13 from the previous week [3]. - **Basis and Spread**: The basis of butadiene rubber was 160, down 110 from the previous day and 35 from the previous week; the 10 - 11 month spread was 35, unchanged from the previous day and down 30 from the previous week; the 11 - 12 month spread was 5, down 15 from the previous day and 15 from the previous week [3]. - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 11,450, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week; the Transfar market price was 11,350, down 100 from the previous day and 100 from the previous week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,500, down 200 from the previous day and 200 from the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Trade Profits**: The spot processing profit was - 32, down 49 from the previous day and up 206 from the previous week; the on - screen processing profit was - 142, down 39 from the previous day and up 141 from the previous week; the import profit was - 81,760, up 1,526 from the previous day and 1,247 from the previous week; the export profit was 90, up 86 from the previous day and down 62 from the previous week [3]. 2.2 BD (Butadiene) - **Market Prices**: The Shandong market price was 9,100, down 50 from the previous day and 300 from the previous week; the Jiangsu market price was 8,950, down 20 from the previous day and 250 from the previous week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,000, down 150 from the previous day and 150 from the previous week; the CFR China price was 1,060, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3]. - **Processing and Trade Profits**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butylene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 206, up 20 from the previous day and 10 from the previous week; the import profit was 304, down 49 from the previous day and 274 from the previous week; the export profit was - 874, up 43 from the previous day and down 12 from the previous week [3]. 2.3 Downstream Products - **Production Profits**: The production profit of styrene - butadiene rubber was 875, down 188 from the previous day and 188 from the previous week; the production profit of ABS was N/A; the production profit of SBS (791 - H) was 1,090, up 105 from the previous day and 105 from the previous week [3]. 2.4 Price Spreads - **Inter - product Spreads**: The RU - BR spread was - 23,175, up 1,446 from the previous day and 31,516 from the previous week; the NR - BR spread was - 26,120, up 1,536 from the previous day and 31,761 from the previous week; the Thai mixed - butadiene rubber spread was 3,350, up 50 from the previous day and 50 from the previous week; the 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber spread was 3,200, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week; the butadiene rubber standard - non - standard spread was 250, unchanged from the previous day and up 100 from the previous week [3]. - **Intra - product Spreads**: The styrene - butadiene rubber 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and the previous week [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Supply side: Domestic rubber production areas have been affected by rainfall and tropical cyclones, especially Hainan. Overseas rainfall is relatively normal, and production will increase in the fourth - quarter peak season. There is a high probability of a La Nina event in 2025, and the zero - tariff scope for imported rubber continues to expand. Rubber supply in China is expected to recover in the fourth quarter without extreme weather [100]. - Demand side: The demand for all - steel tires is better than that of semi - steel tires. Overseas trade barriers for domestic tires are rising, increasing export pressure. The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was introduced, but the automobile sales in the fourth quarter still face challenges [100]. - Price: Due to uncertain weather, tariff barriers, and the test of domestic demand, rubber prices are expected to fluctuate widely in the fourth quarter, with support at around 14,500 yuan/ton and a mid - term fluctuation range of 14,500 - 17,000 yuan/ton [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Price: Narrow - range Fluctuation in the Futures Market No detailed content provided in this regard. 3.2 Supply: Double La Nina Events, Increased Weather Uncertainty - **Domestic Weather Impact**: This year, there have been more tropical cyclones affecting Hainan, and the precipitation in domestic production areas has been affected. It is predicted that there will be 10 - 12 typhoons in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea in the autumn of 2025, with 3 - 4 landing in China [10][13]. - **Global Output**: In July 2025, the global natural rubber output was expected to decrease slightly by 0.1% to 1.328 million tons, but increased by 7.9% compared with the previous month. The full - year output in 2025 is expected to increase by 0.5% to 14.892 million tons [19][24]. - **La Nina Probability**: The probability of a La Nina event from October to December 2025 is 71%. A double La Nina event may occur in 2025, which may make Southeast Asia wetter and southern China drier in winter [30]. - **Tariff Policy**: Since December 1, 2024, zero - tariff policies have been implemented for rubber from Myanmar, Laos, Cambodia, etc. Thailand plans to export rubber through the Mekong River channel with zero - tariff. African rubber imports to China are expected to increase in the fourth quarter [33][36]. - **Overseas Exports**: The total exports of major overseas producers increased year - on - year. For example, Thailand's exports in the first 8 months increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and Indonesia's increased by 10% year - on - year [37]. - **EUDR Delay**: The implementation of the EU Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (EUDR) has been postponed for one year due to IT and supply - chain issues [38]. - **Other Supply Factors**: The demand for natural rubber in Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea is limited. China's imports of natural and mixed rubber increased both year - on - year and month - on - month. The net import of butadiene rubber turned into net export [39][41][51]. 3.3 Demand: Supported by Steady Growth - **Automobile Industry Policy**: The "Automobile Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" aims to achieve about 32.3 million automobile sales in 2025, with new - energy vehicle sales of about 15.5 million, and an increase of about 3% year - on - year [57]. - **Tire Market**: The growth momentum of semi - steel tire demand is restricted. Overseas anti - dumping investigations and tariff policies have affected tire exports. However, the production and sales of automobiles and heavy - duty trucks in China from January to August increased year - on - year [58][60][61]. 3.4 Inventory: Inflection Point in Natural Rubber Inventory Accumulation - **Natural Rubber Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the natural rubber warehouse receipts were 155,830 tons, and the 20 - rubber warehouse receipts were 44,856 tons. The social inventory of natural rubber in China was 123,500 tons as of September 14, 2025 [70][74]. - **Butadiene Rubber Inventory**: As of September 24, 2025, the inventory of domestic butadiene rubber sample enterprises was 32,300 tons [78]. 3.5 Position: Low Position As of September 24, 2025, the total position of natural rubber was 183,283 lots, a decrease of 26,214 lots compared with June 30; the total position of 20 - rubber was 119,808 lots, a decrease of 627 lots; the total position of BR was 102,425 lots, an increase of 47,106 lots [82].

Report Overview - The report is titled "Synthetic Rubber Morning Report" and is from the Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center, dated September 29, 2025 [2] Key Data Summary 1. BR Main Contract - Closing price: 11,445 on September 19, decreased by 115 from September 26 and 15 from the previous week [3] - Open interest: 75,259 on September 19, decreased by 11,063 from September 26 and 35,168 from the previous week [3] - Trading volume: 94,561 on September 19, increased by 108,069 from September 26 and 97,193 from the previous week [3] - Warehouse receipts: 10,230 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and decreased by 980 from the previous week [3] - Reality-to-virtual ratio: 36.78 on September 19, decreased by 6 from September 26 and 15 from the previous week [3] 2. Basis and Spread - Butadiene basis: 690 on September 19, decreased by 35 from September 26 and 85 from the previous week [3] - 10 - 11 month spread: 70 on September 19, increased by 20 from September 26 and decreased by 35 from the previous week [3] - 11 - 12 month spread: 5 on September 19, increased by 10 from September 26 [3] 3. Market Prices - Shandong market price: 11,600 on September 19, decreased by 30 from September 26 and 50 from the previous week [3] - Chuanhua market price: 11,450 on September 19, decreased by 50 from September 26 [3] - Qilu ex - factory price: 11,700 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and the previous week [3] - CFR Northeast Asia: 1,525 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and decreased by 25 from the previous week [3] - CFR Southeast Asia: 1,700 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and the previous week [3] 4. Processing and Profit - Spot processing profit: - 290 on September 19, increased by 138 from September 26 and 307 from the previous week [3] - Futures processing profit: - 445 on September 19, increased by 53 from September 26 and 342 from the previous week [3] - Import profit: - 82,977 on September 19, decreased by 49 from September 26 and 309 from the previous week [3] - Export profit: 111 on September 19, increased by 29 from September 26 and decreased by 106 from the previous week [3] 5. Downstream and Inter - variety Spreads - Butadiene styrene production profit: 963 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and increased by 100 from the previous week [3] - ABS production profit: 106 on September 19 [3] - SBS production profit (791 - H): 885 on September 19 [3] - RU - BR spread: - 59,724 on September 19, increased by 10,963 from September 26 and 35,103 from the previous week [3] - NR - BR spread: - 62,959 on September 19, increased by 11,068 from September 26 and 35,303 from the previous week [3] - Thai mixed - cis - butadiene spread: 3,130 on September 19, increased by 30 from September 26 and 170 from the previous week [3] - 3L - butadiene styrene spread: 3,050 on September 19, increased by 100 from September 26 and 150 from the previous week [3] - Cis - butadiene standard - non - standard spread: 200 on September 19, increased by 70 from September 26 and 50 from the previous week [3] - Butadiene styrene 1502 - 1712 spread: 1,000 on September 19, unchanged from September 26 and the previous week [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The rubber market in Q3 2025 showed a sideways oscillation with no obvious unilateral trend. In Q4, the market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more prominent in the early stage and potential for rebounds due to weather and policies in the later stage [6][53]. - The supply of natural rubber is expected to increase in Q4, but weather disturbances and the pace of increased tapping will support prices from the bottom. The cost of synthetic rubber remains under pressure, and the supply situation will not change significantly in the short term [8][28]. - The demand for rubber from the tire industry is affected by factors such as the "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" not meeting expectations, EU anti - dumping investigations, and US tariff policies. However, domestic new energy vehicle policies provide some support [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - Since Q3, the three major rubber futures markets have been in a sideways oscillation. Rain and typhoons in July - August supported rubber prices by hindering tapping, but in September, with the seasonal peak production season and the "zero - tariff rubber import" pilot project, concerns about increased supply grew. The "Golden Nine and Silver Ten" demand was below expectations, and EU anti - dumping investigations and US tariff policies affected exports, while domestic new energy vehicle policies supported demand [6]. 3.2 Fundamental Situation Natural Rubber - **Raw Material Prices**: As of September 26, raw material prices in Thailand, Yunnan, and Hainan were lower than the same period last year. Prices have been relatively stable in Q3, and are expected to remain stable in Q4, providing cost support [8]. - **Supply Growth**: The global supply growth of natural rubber is slowing down. In 2025, the global output is expected to increase by only 0.5%. China's output has increased significantly, while Indonesia and Vietnam's output is expected to decline. Weather will be a major variable affecting output in Q4 [10]. - **Imports**: In August 2025, China's natural rubber imports increased both month - on - month and year - on - year. Thailand is the largest source, and imports from Cote d'Ivoire are growing. If the China - Cote d'Ivoire zero - tariff policy is implemented, imports may further increase [17]. - **Inventory in Qingdao**: As of September 19, 2025, the social inventory of natural rubber in China was 111.2 tons. Qingdao's inventory has been decreasing, but the pace has slowed. In Q4, the inventory reduction pressure may increase with more arrivals from major producing areas [20]. Synthetic Rubber - **Profit of Butadiene Rubber Enterprises**: In 2025, the large increase in butadiene production capacity led to an oversupply situation, putting pressure on prices. The cost of butadiene rubber remains high, and production profit is under pressure. Although production growth has slowed, it remains at a high level [28]. - **Inventory of Butadiene Rubber**: As of the week of September 26, the factory inventory of butadiene rubber was 26,600 tons, and the trader inventory was 5,700 tons, both higher than the same period last year. The market is in a weak supply - demand balance, and attention should be paid to inventory digestion during the peak demand season [29]. - **Imports and Exports of Butadiene Rubber**: In August 2025, China's butadiene rubber imports decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year, while exports increased. China has shifted from a net importer to a net exporter, and this pattern is expected to continue in Q4 [31]. Tires - **All - steel Tires**: As of September 26, the capacity utilization rate of all - steel tires was 66.39%, and the factory inventory days were 39.16 days. The social inventory at the end of August was 62,500 units. Factory inventory has decreased significantly, but social inventory remains high. After the National Day holiday, the resumption of production by tire enterprises will affect supply pressure [36]. - **Semi - steel Tires**: In August, the production of passenger cars and semi - steel tires increased. However, due to the mismatch between supply and demand and EU anti - dumping investigations, the factory inventory pressure is large [43]. - **Tire Exports**: In August 2025, the export of all - steel tires was relatively stable, with new growth points in emerging markets. The export of semi - steel tires decreased after reaching a high in July. In Q4, semi - steel tire exports may face downward pressure, while all - steel tires may benefit from emerging markets [46]. 3.3 Related Price Situation - The price spreads among the three major rubber futures contracts were relatively stable, indicating that the internal supply - demand fundamentals of rubber were not significantly differentiated, and market influencing factors tended to be consistent [50]. 3.4 Future Market Outlook - In Q4, raw material prices are expected to run stably, providing cost support. The supply from Cote d'Ivoire may increase. Qingdao's inventory reduction pressure may grow. The tire industry's inventory and production resumption after the National Day will affect demand. Macroeconomic factors include the impact of the Fed's interest - rate cuts and potential domestic macro - easing policies. The market will likely oscillate within a range, with supply pressure more obvious in the early stage and potential for rebounds later [53].

Group 1: Market Overview - In the second week of September, the butadiene rubber market experienced an overall decline due to intensified supply-demand conflicts and Mexico's tariffs on Chinese automotive products [1] - As of September 17, the mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber in East China was 11,650 yuan per ton, a decrease of 70 yuan compared to early September, reflecting a decline of 0.60% [1] Group 2: Production Capacity - From January to August, China's butadiene rubber production exceeded 1.02 million tons, an increase of 210,000 tons year-on-year [2] - New production capacities are expected to be released in the second half of the year, particularly around October, which may increase market supply pressure [2] - Jilin Petrochemical's 50,000 tons/year butadiene rubber facility is scheduled to start production in mid to late October, potentially intensifying supply competition [2] Group 3: Demand Trends - The tire industry, which accounts for over 70% of butadiene rubber consumption, has seen significant profit declines, with some companies reporting profit drops exceeding 50% [4] - As of the end of August, the capacity utilization rate of China's semi-steel tire sample enterprises was 70.97%, a decrease of 0.90 percentage points month-on-month and 8.73 percentage points year-on-year [4] - Despite the traditional peak season, the tire industry is not performing well, with many companies maintaining regular production schedules and cautious purchasing behavior [4] Group 4: Cost Dynamics - The domestic butadiene market is expected to face oversupply in 2025, with an anticipated increase in production capacity of 930,000 tons [5] - The price decline of butadiene rubber futures has led to concerns about the pricing of styrene-butadiene rubber, further suppressing butadiene prices [5] - Butadiene accounts for 75% to 80% of the production cost of butadiene rubber, and its price decline significantly weakens cost support for butadiene rubber [5]

Report Information - Report Title: Yongan Synthetic Rubber Morning Report [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center [2] - Report Date: September 23, 2025 [2] Core Data Summary BR (Butadiene Rubber) - **Futures Data**: On September 22, the closing price of the main contract was 11,505, up 60 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; the open interest was 70,306, down 4,953 from the previous day and up 51,521 week - on - week; the trading volume was 95,866, up 1,305 from the previous day and up 59,284 week - on - week; the warrant quantity was 9,190, down 1,040 from the previous day and down 4,480 week - on - week; the virtual - to - real ratio was 38.25; the butadiene rubber basis was 45, down 110 from the previous day and up 50 week - on - week; the butadiene rubber basis (two major oil companies) was 195, down 60 from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3]. - **Spot Data**: The Shandong market price was 11,550, down 50 from the previous day and down 150 week - on - week; the Transfar market price was 11,450, unchanged from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week; the Qilu ex - factory price was 11,700, unchanged from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; CFR Northeast Asia was 1,525, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week; CFR Southeast Asia was 1,700, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3]. - **Profit Data**: The spot processing profit was - 238, up 52 from the previous day and down 150 week - on - week; the futures processing profit was - 283, up 162 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; the import profit was - 83,031, down 54 from the previous day and up 1,520 week - on - week; the export profit was 155, up 44 from the previous day and up 124 week - on - week [3]. BD (Butadiene) - **Price Data**: The Shandong market price was 9,400, down 100 from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week; the Jiangsu market price was 9,200, unchanged from the previous day and down 50 week - on - week; the Yangzi ex - factory price was 9,150, down 100 from the previous day and down 100 week - on - week; CFR China was 1,060, down 10 from the previous day and down 30 week - on - week [3]. - **Profit Data**: The carbon four extraction profit was N/A; the butene oxidative dehydrogenation profit was 196, up 90 from the previous day and up 110 week - on - week; the import profit was 527, up 80 from the previous day and up 197 week - on - week; the export profit was - 896, unchanged from the previous day and up 110 week - on - week [3]. Downstream Products - The butadiene rubber production profit was - 283, up 162 from the previous day and down 200 week - on - week; the styrene - butadiene rubber production profit was 1,063, up 100 from the previous day and down 50 week - on - week; the ABS production profit was N/A; the SBS production profit (791 - H) was 955, up 70 from the previous day and up 130 week - on - week [3]. Price Spreads - **Inter - variety Spreads**: RU - BR was - 54,691, up 5,033 from the previous day and down 51,901 week - on - week; NR - BR was - 57,881, up 5,078 from the previous day and down 51,806 week - on - week; Thai mixed - butadiene rubber was 3,300, up 170 from the previous day and down 150 week - on - week; 3L - styrene - butadiene rubber was 3,100, up 50 from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3]. - **Intra - variety Spreads**: The butadiene rubber standard - non - standard price spread was 150, down 50 from the previous day and down 50 week - on - week; the styrene - butadiene 1502 - 1712 spread was 1,000, unchanged from the previous day and unchanged week - on - week [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the synthetic rubber industry is "oscillating bearish" [3] Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic butadiene market has weakened, and the list price of cis - butadiene rubber has been lowered. Although downstream demand is recovering, attention should be paid to the support of macro - policies for demand. In terms of valuation, the correlation between BR and NR on the futures market has increased, and the rubber attribute is relatively strong [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - This cycle, Sinopec and PetroChina's major sales companies have cumulatively lowered the price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber by 200 yuan/ton. As of September 18, 2025, the mainstream ex - factory price of high - cis cis - butadiene rubber in China is between 11,700 - 11,800 yuan/ton [6] - The prices of butadiene, cis - butadiene rubber, and styrene - butadiene rubber have generally declined. For example, the ex - factory price of Dalian Hengli's butadiene has decreased by 100 yuan/ton compared to September 10, with a week - on - week decline of 1.10% [8] Device Status - **Butadiene Devices**: Many devices such as Nanjing Chengzhi, Sierbang, and Yanshan Petrochemical are in a shutdown state. Some devices in Central China have reduced their loads, and some in South China have temporarily shut down, resulting in a continuous decline in production [3] - **Cis - Butadiene Rubber Devices**: Shandong Weite, Taixiang Yubu, and Haopu New Materials' cis - butadiene rubber devices are under maintenance. High - cis cis - butadiene rubber production and capacity utilization are generally stable [3] Market Influencing Factors - **Supply**: The supply of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber is affected by device shutdowns and maintenance, showing a neutral driving force [3] - **Demand**: In the semi - steel tire market, channel sales have increased, especially in the snow tire market. In the all - steel tire market, the market price is stable, but the replacement market demand has not significantly increased, and some enterprises face export pressure [3] - **Inventory**: Butadiene port inventory and high - cis cis - butadiene rubber enterprise + trader inventory have decreased. However, there is still an expectation of future vessel arrivals for butadiene [3] - **Basis**: The basis of cis - butadiene rubber in North, East, and South China shows a neutral state [3] - **Spread/Price Ratio**: The spreads of RU - BR, NR - BR, and the price ratio of BR - SC are in a bullish state [3] - **Profit**: The production profit of butadiene and cis - butadiene rubber shows a neutral state [3] - **Geopolitical and Macroeconomic Factors**: OPEC+ has started the second - round production increase cycle, the US economic data is weak, the Federal Reserve has cut interest rates, and geopolitical tensions in some regions still exist [3] Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: Oscillating upward [3] - **Arbitrage Trading**: Pay attention to going long on BR and short on NR/RU [3]