Group 1 - JPMorgan Chase & Co. increased its stake in Ganfeng Lithium Co., Ltd. by purchasing 2.814 million shares at an average price of HKD 69.0358 per share, totaling approximately HKD 194 million [1][2] - Following the purchase, JPMorgan's total holdings in Ganfeng Lithium rose to 31.495 million shares, increasing its ownership percentage from 5.93% to 6.51% [1][2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply side of lithium carbonate showed an increase last week, with a weekly output of 21,822 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.11%, higher than the historical average. The production in February 2026 was 83,090 physical tons, and the predicted production for the next month is 106,390 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 28.04%. The import volume in February 2026 was 21,800 physical tons, and the predicted import volume for the next month is 26,000 physical tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.27% [8][9]. - On the demand side, the inventory of sample enterprises of lithium iron phosphate increased by 0.50% month - on - month to 92,556 tons last week, while the inventory of sample enterprises of ternary materials decreased by 2.99% month - on - month to 17,234 tons. It is expected that the demand will strengthen next month, and the inventory may be reduced [8]. - In terms of cost, the CIF price of 6% concentrate decreased day - on - day, lower than the historical average. The cost of purchasing spodumene concentrate is 158,432 yuan/ton, with a daily profit of 446 yuan/ton; the cost of purchasing lithium mica is 154,659 yuan/ton, with a daily loss of 6,209 yuan/ton; the production cost of the recycling end is generally higher than that of the ore end, with negative production income and low production enthusiasm; the quarterly cash production cost of the salt lake end is 32,231 yuan/ton, with sufficient profit space and strong production motivation [9]. - The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in the range of 147,240 - 159,760 [9]. - The main logic is the emotional shock caused by news under the tight balance of supply and demand [12]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - **Supply and Demand Analysis**: The supply of lithium carbonate increased last week, and the production and import volume are expected to increase next month. The demand side shows different trends in the inventory of different materials, and the overall demand is expected to strengthen next month [8][9]. - **Cost Analysis**: Different raw material costs have different profit situations. The salt lake end has obvious cost advantages, while the recycling end has low production enthusiasm [9]. - **Market Judgment**: The lithium carbonate 2605 contract is expected to fluctuate in a certain range, and the market is affected by the tight balance of supply and demand and news [9][12]. - **Leveraging Factors**: Positive factors include the production cut plan of lithium mica manufacturers and the month - on - month decline in the import volume of lithium carbonate from Chile; negative factors include the continuous high supply of ore/salt lake ends with limited decline [10][11]. 3.2 Fundamental/Position Data - **Supply - Side Data**: The weekly production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production and import volume are expected to increase next month. The production of different raw materials such as lithium ore, lithium mica, and salt lake has different trends, and the import volume of lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate also shows certain changes [8][9][17]. - **Demand - Side Data**: The inventory of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials shows different trends. The production, export, and battery loading volume of related products in the downstream also change to varying degrees. The demand for new energy vehicles also shows a certain decline [17]. - **Cost and Profit Data**: Different raw materials have different cost - profit situations, including spodumene, lithium mica, and recycling materials. The cost of salt lake production is significantly lower, with sufficient profit space [9]. - **Inventory Data**: The overall inventory of lithium carbonate decreased month - on - month, but the inventory of different links such as smelters and downstream has different trends [9]. - **Market Data**: The price of lithium carbonate and related products shows certain fluctuations, and the basis shows a state of spot premium over futures [9][15].

中东战火的"冲击波"正传导至全球锂产业链上，对于中资矿石 化锂企业而言，每吨碳酸锂的生产成本面临一定上浮压力。但 在多位业内人士看来，这种传导并非立竿见影，更多是对市场 预期和企业焦虑情绪的集中触发。 作者：王雅洁 封图：图虫创意 "中东战火看上去很远，但每一次爆炸，都在烧我们的天然气、涨我们的运费、压我们的利润。这 不是故事，是我们每天的生产成本表。"3月3日，华北地区一家大型矿企供应链负责人陈实对记者 说。 在此之前，美国和以色列空袭伊朗、胡塞武装重启红海袭击的消息几乎同时"炸开"，他的团队盯 着国际油价、盯着海运报价，讨论着这个刚刚开始的3月，该矿企的生产线还能不能满负荷运转。 3月3日，国际油价大幅收涨，布伦特原油5月合约收报81.65美元/桶，单日涨幅超5%，盘中一度 逼近80美元/桶关口。作为全球油气的"阀门"，霍尔木兹海峡的风吹草动，可能转化为全球工业必 须支付的溢价。 这股"冲击波"正传导至全球锂产业链上，对于中资矿石化锂企业而言，每吨碳酸锂的生产成本面 临一定上浮压力。但在多位业内人士看来，这种传导并非立竿见影，更多是对市场预期和企业焦虑 情绪的集中触发。 成本承压 华东一家中型锂盐企业投资 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate futures in February first declined and then rose, with violent price fluctuations. The overall short - term supply - demand contradiction is alleviated, but in the medium and long term, the supply from upstream mines is limited and cannot meet downstream demand, and the supply - demand tension still exists. The price is expected to be mainly in a range - bound pattern. The risk points include the slowdown of demand growth, non - mine supply, and the ramping up of overseas salt lake production [2][3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market Review 3.1.1 February Futures Market Trend of Lithium Carbonate - In February 2026, the price of lithium carbonate futures first declined and then rose. Affected by factors such as strong demand, continuous inventory reduction, and short - term tightening of African lithium ore supply, the price bottomed out and then strongly rebounded. Near the end of the month, due to the rapid short - term price increase, the price slightly weakened and fluctuated after hitting the previous resistance level. The price fluctuated between 120,000 and 190,000 yuan during the month. The monthly cumulative trading volume was 7.08 million lots, a 49% decrease from the previous month, and the open interest was 710,000 lots, a decrease of 10,000 lots from the previous month. The main contract LC2605 had a monthly increase of 18.8% and an amplitude of 43% [7][8][9] 3.1.2 January Spot and Basis of Lithium Carbonate - In February, the spot price of lithium carbonate bottomed out and then rose. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 172,000 yuan/ton, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 168,500 yuan/ton, a 7% increase from the previous month. The price of lithium hydroxide also increased by 7%. The basis fluctuated violently between - 12,000 yuan and 20,000 yuan, and at the end of February, the basis was at - 660 yuan/ton, with the spot and futures prices almost the same [13][14][18] 3.1.3 Price Quotes of the Upstream and Downstream of the Lithium Carbonate Industry Chain - In February, the prices of the upstream and downstream of the lithium carbonate industry chain generally increased to a certain extent. The price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate rose by 13% to 2,385 US dollars/ton. The price of lithium hexafluorophosphate decreased by 16% due to market capacity release, dragging down the price of electrolyte by 13%. The monthly increase of lithium iron phosphate was 6%, and that of ternary materials was 3% [21] 3.2 Upstream Analysis of Lithium Carbonate 3.2.1 Lithium Ore Price Trend and Lithium Carbonate Production Profit - In January, the price of Australian SC6 spodumene concentrate rose from 2,175 US dollars/ton to 2,385 US dollars/ton, a 10% increase. The price of lithium mica concentrate rose from 4,965 yuan/ton to 5,600 yuan/ton, a 13% increase. The production profit of lithium carbonate first decreased and then recovered. The production profit of purchasing spodumene was about 12,000 yuan at the end of the month, and that of purchasing mica was about 5,200 yuan [25][28] 3.2.2 Lithium Ore Supply, Demand, and Inventory - In February, as the price of lithium carbonate continued to rise, the lithium ore inventory decreased significantly. The inventory of traders decreased significantly, and the inventory of lithium salt plants was at a low level. The supply of mica ore was still tight due to the shutdown in Jiangxi. The current upstream resource supply mainly comes from salt lakes and spodumene. In 2026, it is expected that the domestic mica ore supply will decrease by at least 60,000 tons. The复产 of the Ngungaju factory will increase the LCE capacity by 11,000 tons this year. The CGP3 capacity of Greenbushes is 520,000 tons of concentrate, equivalent to 65,000 tons of LCE production, and it is expected to produce 22,000 tons this year. The new production of Mt Marion and Wodgina lithium mines is 17,000 tons of LCE. If the export ban in Zimbabwe is implemented in the short term, it will affect the annual supply of 10,000 - 20,000 tons of LCE. If the ban persists, the annual supply of lithium carbonate in Zimbabwe will be reduced by at least 80,000 tons [29][34][35] 3.3 Lithium Carbonate Supply Analysis 3.3.1 Lithium Carbonate Production - In February, the production of lithium carbonate was 82,000 tons, a 15% decrease from the previous month and a 30% increase year - on - year. Among them, the production of battery - grade lithium carbonate was 61,000 tons, and that of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 22,000 tons. The main production source was spodumene. The overall capacity utilization rate in February was 47%, and it is expected to recover to 59% in March. It is estimated that the supply of lithium carbonate in March will increase by 28%, setting a new production high [37][44][45] 3.3.2 Lithium Carbonate Import and Export - In December 2025, the import of lithium carbonate was 24,000 tons, and the export was 912 tons, with a net import of 23,100 tons. Chile and Argentina are the main import sources. In January 2026, the total export of lithium carbonate from Chile was 22,900 tons, a 24.83% increase from the previous month and a 10.59% decrease year - on - year. It is expected that the import volume of lithium carbonate in China from January to February will increase significantly, and the import volume in March is also expected to remain at a high level [47][50] 3.3.3 Lithium Hydroxide Production and Apparent Demand - In February, the production of lithium hydroxide was 23,000 tons, a 15% decrease from the previous month and a 14% increase year - on - year. In December, the import of lithium hydroxide was 5,093 tons, and the export was 6,318 tons, with a net export of 1,225 tons. Due to the decrease in production in February, the net export will also decline, and the apparent demand in February is expected to be 21,000 tons, at a relatively high historical level [51][53] 3.4 Downstream Demand Analysis of Lithium Carbonate 3.4.1 New Energy Vehicle Sales - In January 2026, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 945,000, a 0.1% increase year - on - year, accounting for 40.3% of the total vehicle sales. The sales penetration rate of new energy vehicles decreased from 52.3% in December last year to 40%. It is expected that the sales volume of new energy vehicles will increase in March [54][60] 3.4.2 Lithium Battery and Cell Production - In February, the production of lithium batteries by sample enterprises was 169 GWh, including 134 GWh of lithium iron phosphate batteries and 26 GWh of ternary batteries. The production of ternary batteries was stable, and the monthly production of lithium iron phosphate batteries decreased by 13% from the previous month and increased by 61% year - on - year. The monthly production of power cells was 102 GWh, a 15% decrease from the previous month and a 24% increase year - on - year. The monthly production of energy - storage cells was 56 GWh, an 11% decrease from the previous month and an 87% increase year - on - year. The cell inventory - to - sales ratio continued to decline, and the inventory was at a low level [63][64] 3.4.3 Cathode Material and Electrolyte Production - In February, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 348,000 tons, a 12% decrease from the previous month and a 53% increase year - on - year. The production of ternary materials was 71,000 tons, a 12% decrease from the previous month and a 48% increase year - on - year. Affected by the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream demand decreased by 10 - 15% month - on - month. It is expected that the production of cathode materials, lithium hexafluorophosphate, electrolyte, and batteries will increase significantly in March [67][74] 3.5 Lithium Carbonate Inventory - As of the end of February, the sample social inventory of lithium carbonate was 1 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons from the previous month, and the inventory days were 28.2 days. The inventory of smelters was 18,000 tons, at a historical low. The overall market was still in a low - inventory state. It is expected that the inventory depletion intensity will weaken in March, and there may even be enterprise restocking behavior. The exchange inventory at the end of February was 38,200 tons [75][79][80] 3.6 Lithium Carbonate Summary and Future Forecast - In the short term, the demand for lithium carbonate is still strong, and the social inventory is in a low - inventory depletion state. However, affected by the rapid recovery and growth of supply in March, the supply - demand tension will be alleviated to some extent, and there will be a certain supply surplus in March. In the medium and long term, the supply from upstream mines is limited and cannot meet downstream demand, and the supply - demand tension still exists. The price is expected to be mainly in a range - bound pattern. If the price of lithium carbonate further declines in March, it may boost downstream procurement and restocking demand [84][86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints - No clear core viewpoints are presented in the report 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Data - The price range forecast for the lithium carbonate futures main contract has a strong resistance level at 220,000 yuan/ton, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 105.7% and a historical percentile of 95.4% over 3 years [2] - The closing price of the main contract is 153,060 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,200 yuan (1.46%) and a weekly decrease of 13,420 yuan (-8.06%). The trading volume is 297,139 lots, with a daily decrease of 147,976 lots (-33.24%) and a weekly decrease of 25,588 lots (-7.93%). The open interest is 339,011 lots, with a daily decrease of 593 lots (-0.17%) and a weekly decrease of 38,026 lots (-10.09%) [4] - The closing price of the weighted index contract is 153,159 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 2,048 yuan (1.36%) and a weekly decrease of 13,560 yuan (-8.13%). The trading volume is 395,579 lots, with a daily decrease of 186,127 lots (-32.00%) and a weekly decrease of 18,527 lots (-4.47%). The open interest is 637,547 lots, with a daily decrease of 9,283 lots (-1.44%) and a weekly decrease of 60,058 lots (-8.61%) [4] - The price differences between different contracts (LC2605 - LC2607, LC2605 - LC2609, LC2607 - LC2609) have different daily and weekly changes [4] - The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on the GQEX is 38,196 lots, with a daily decrease of 265 lots (-0.69%) and a weekly decrease of 563 lots (-1.45%) [4] 3.2 Spot Data - In the lithium - ion battery industry chain, various lithium - related products have different price changes. For example, the average price of lithium mica (2 - 2.5%) is 5,190 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 160 yuan (-2.99%); the average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 154,000 yuan/ton, with a daily decrease of 7,000 yuan (-4.35%) [18] - The exchange rate of the US dollar against the RMB is 6.9174, with a daily increase of 0.0349 (0.51%) [18] - The price differences between different lithium products, such as the difference between battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, and the difference between battery - grade lithium carbonate and battery - grade lithium hydroxide, have different changes [22] 3.3 Basis and Warehouse Receipt Data - The basis of the lithium carbonate main - continuous contract and the near - month contract shows different trends over different time periods [28][37] - The brand - based basis quotes of different lithium carbonate producers are provided, such as - 500 yuan for Shengxin Lithium Energy, 300 yuan for Tianqi Lithium Industry, etc. [31] - The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts shows a decrease compared to the previous day, with a total of 38,196 lots today, a decrease of 265 lots from yesterday [35] 3.4 Cost and Profit - The production profits of lithium carbonate from purchased lithium ore (lithium spodumene concentrate and lithium mica concentrate) and the production profits of lithium hydroxide by causticization and smelting methods are presented, showing different trends over time [38] - The theoretical delivery profit of lithium carbonate, the export profit of lithium hydroxide, and the import profit of lithium carbonate are also shown [38]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The current lithium carbonate fundamentals are strong, with supply and demand in a tight balance. After today's limit - down, the spot market trading volume has increased, and the replenishment enthusiasm is high. However, the price is still influenced by market sentiment. The power terminal demand in January - February was below expectations, and whether it can recover remains to be seen. It is expected that the price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Latest Dynamics and Reasons - According to Flush data, today the lithium carbonate main contract hit the limit - down, closing at the limit - down price of 150,860 yuan/ton. The price decline is mainly due to weakening market sentiment and concerns about demand expectations. In January, the retail sales volume of new energy vehicles in China was 596,000, a year - on - year decrease of 20.0% and a month - on - month decrease of 55.4%. The year - on - year decline was mainly concentrated in models under 200,000 yuan, which are the main force for sales volume in 2025. This has triggered market concerns about order cancellations by downstream enterprises due to the decline in demand in the second quarter. In addition, concerns about the impact of overseas geopolitics on demand have led to weak overall market sentiment, affecting the decline of lithium carbonate prices [3] Fundamental Situation - In March, the fundamentals of lithium carbonate are still strong, but the subsequent performance of the terminal remains to be observed. Since 2026, the supply has been relatively strong. Although some enterprises have carried out maintenance and production cuts, the overall supply is at a high level. At the same time, the demand is good. Downstream enterprises are active in stocking after the price correction, and the supply and demand are still in a tight balance, with a reduction in social inventory. After the Spring Festival, both the supply and demand sides have recovered. The strong demand performance in March and Zimbabwe's ban on lithium ore exports have supported the market. However, the sales volume of new energy vehicles in December was not optimistic, and it remains to be further verified in March and April, which is the key to affecting the supply - demand balance in the second quarter [4] Summary and Strategy - Currently, the lithium carbonate fundamentals are strong, and supply and demand are in a tight balance. After today's limit - down, the spot market trading volume has increased, and the replenishment enthusiasm is high. However, the price is still influenced by market sentiment. The power terminal demand in January - February was below expectations, and whether it can recover remains to be seen. It is expected that the price will mainly fluctuate in the short term [5]

Group 1 - The report highlights the ongoing wave of mining nationalism, particularly illustrated by Zimbabwe's sudden ban on unprocessed lithium ore and lithium concentrate exports, effective immediately as of February 25, 2026, aiming to enhance mineral regulation and promote local processing [2][3][15] - This mining nationalism reflects a broader trend where resource-rich countries implement policies such as export restrictions and local processing mandates to retain resource value domestically and strengthen control over mineral resources [3][18] - The report notes that Zimbabwe's lithium production is expected to account for approximately 12% of global supply in 2026, with the export ban potentially affecting around 150,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) annually, exacerbating supply-demand tensions [15][19] Group 2 - The report discusses the significant sell-off in U.S. software stocks, with the IGV US ETF representing a decline of over 35% since September 2025, triggered by the introduction of Anthropic's Claude Cowork AI plugin, leading to a fundamental reassessment of growth logic and valuation models in the software industry [2][3][35] - The sell-off has resulted in a compression of expected price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios from a peak of approximately 40 times to 20.4 times, indicating a shift from a 50% premium over the S&P 500 index to a 5% discount [35][37] - The report emphasizes that the impact of AI on the software industry is seen as a transformation rather than a simple replacement, with a shift towards intelligent service platforms and a potential for differentiated growth paths in markets like China, which is still in the digital transformation phase [35][43] Group 3 - The report identifies five key sectors for investment focus in March, including chemicals, lithium mining, domestic computing power, semiconductor equipment, and overseas computing power, highlighting their potential for marginal improvement [4][44] - It suggests that the chemical sector is experiencing price increases due to supply constraints and strong demand, while the lithium sector is buoyed by rising prices following Zimbabwe's export ban [44][45] - The report also notes that domestic computing power is supported by national strategies for self-sufficiency, and semiconductor equipment is poised for growth due to ongoing expansions in production capacity [44]

Core Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate industry is expected to enter a critical development phase in 2026, driven by demand from both power and energy storage sectors, leading to an unexpected increase in demand while supply remains uncertain, resulting in a tight balance in the industry [6][7]. Supply Side - In 2026, global lithium supply is projected to reach 2.14 million tons, with an increase of 440,000 tons, but most of this new capacity will be released after the third quarter of 2026, and uncertainties exist across various supply segments, potentially leading to actual supply falling short of expectations [9]. - Domestic salt lakes, domestic mines, overseas salt lakes, Australian mines, and non-mines are the main contributors to supply growth, with domestic salt lakes expected to contribute 84,000 tons, primarily from core sources like Zangge and Chaharhan salt lakes [11]. - Domestic mines are expected to add 66,000 tons, while overseas salt lakes and Australian mines will contribute 69,000 tons and 78,000 tons respectively, with non-mines being the largest source of new supply at 115,000 tons [11]. Demand Side - The demand for lithium carbonate is being significantly boosted by both power and energy storage sectors, with global lithium battery demand expected to reach 2,886 GWh in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 30%, and total lithium carbonate demand projected to be 2.1 million tons in 2026, reflecting a 27% year-on-year growth [15][21]. - Domestic electric passenger vehicle sales are expected to reach 13.65 million units in 2026, a 5% increase, with battery demand for passenger vehicles growing by 11% [16]. - The global energy storage battery demand is projected to grow rapidly, with significant increases in demand across various regions, particularly in China and the U.S., driven by capacity price subsidies and data center needs [20][21]. Price Side - A two-year upward price cycle for lithium carbonate has been established, with a solid price support level at 120,000 yuan per ton and a recognized reasonable price center at 150,000 yuan per ton, with potential for prices to exceed 200,000 yuan per ton due to supply uncertainties [22][29]. - As of January 22, 2026, domestic lithium carbonate inventory is at a critically low level of 109,000 tons, insufficient for even one month's usage, indicating strong demand for inventory replenishment and supporting price increases [25]. - The pricing mechanism is influenced by both futures and spot market averages, with significant price fluctuations expected in 2026, particularly in Q1 and Q4 when supply is most constrained [29]. Investment Focus - The lithium carbonate market is entering a two-year upward cycle, with a tight supply-demand balance ensuring high price certainty, suggesting that companies with quality lithium resources and significant profit elasticity should be the focus for investment [30].

Group 1 - The A-share market saw a collective decline in lithium mining stocks, with companies such as Huayou Cobalt and Zhongmin Resources dropping over 6% [1] - Other companies like Tibet Summit and Western Mining also experienced significant declines, falling over 5%, while companies including Cangge Mining, Erkang Pharmaceutical, Ganfeng Lithium, Salt Lake Industry, and Tianqi Lithium dropped over 4% [1] - The main contract for lithium carbonate experienced a substantial drop, reaching a maximum decline of 12.99% during the trading session, with a price of 150,860 yuan per ton [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The recent rise in lithium carbonate prices is mainly affected by the fermentation of the lithium mine incident in Zimbabwe, coupled with the accelerated destocking of downstream products, and the sentiment in the futures market has strengthened. The price of lithium carbonate is oscillating at a high level. However, the impact of the unexpected event on supply and demand remains to be observed. There is a certain uncertainty in the realization of demand from subsequent energy storage projects. Currently, there is a large divergence between bulls and bears, and volatility has increased. It is recommended to adopt a cautious and short - term approach, buying on dips [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 2, 2026, the main lithium carbonate contract 2605 opened at 178,680 yuan/ton and closed at 172,020 yuan/ton, with a - 0.96% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume on that day was 227,061 lots, and the open interest was 378,336 lots, compared with 381,552 lots in the previous trading day. According to SMM spot quotes, the current basis is 1,440 yuan/ton (average price of electric carbon - futures). The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts on that day was 38,196 lots, a change of - 265 lots from the previous trading day [1]. Spot Market - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 169,000 - 176,000 yuan/ton, a change of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is quoted at 166,000 - 172,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 500 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,385 US dollars/ton, with no change from the previous day [2]. - In December 2025, China's total lithium carbonate imports were approximately 24,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.77% and a year - on - year decrease of 14.43%. The import volume of spodumene in December 2025 was approximately 766,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5% and a year - on - year increase of 19% [2]. - In December 2025, the import volume from Australia was 310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 27%, accounting for 40%. The import volume from Zimbabwe was 132,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 39% and a month - on - month increase of 20%, accounting for 17%. The import volume from Nigeria was 80,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 59% and a month - on - month decrease of 13%, accounting for 10%. The import volume from South Africa was 109,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 13% and a month - on - month increase of approximately 109,000 tons [2]. - According to the latest SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 100,093 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,839 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 18,382 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1,462 tons; the downstream inventory is 40,021 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,471 tons; other inventories are 41,690 tons, a month - on - month increase of 170 tons. The downstream inventory has decreased, while the smelter and other inventories have increased. The overall destocking pattern was maintained in February, and the downstream destocking accelerated [2]. Strategy - It is recommended to adopt a cautious and short - term approach, buying on dips [3]. Other Information - There is no information on inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [4].