[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 12 月 08 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号：s0120523050002 邮箱：zhaikun＠tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 市场成交额重回 2 万亿 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 摘要。2025 年 12 月 8 日周一，A 股市场延续上行，成交额重回 2 万亿；国债期 货市场震荡分化，长债维持弱势；商品指数下跌，双焦大幅下挫。 一、市场行情分析 1）股票市场：成交重回 2 万亿，创业板领涨 成交重回 2 万亿，创业板领涨。12 月 8 日 A 股核心指数集体走强，成长风格显著 占优，上证收于 3,924.08 点，上涨 0.54%；深证表现更强，收于 13,329.99 点， 上涨 1.39%；创业板指收于 3,190.27 点，上涨 2.60%，领涨各核心指数；科创 50 收于 1,350.80 点，上涨 1.86%。全市场成交额重回 2 万亿元，量能较上一交易日 显著放大 18%，显示增量资金 ...

进入12月，IPO审核出现明显提速。12月8日—12日这周，沪深北交易所将有慧谷新材、林平发展、悦龙科技、宏明电子、有研复材、原力数字、美亚科技 等7家企业迎来IPO上会大考，单周7家企业首发上会也创下了年内新高。在上述7家企业中，拟募资金额最高的是来自创业板的宏明电子，公司拟募集资金 约19.51亿元。从7家公司的基本面来看，均于2025年前三季度实现盈利，不过包括宏明电子在内，7家公司中，3家今年前三季度净利出现同比下滑。 | レ 提取数据 | | 昌 | | 田 新増指标 ▼ | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 上市委会议日期 开始日期 2025-01-01 | | | 结束日期 2025-12-31 自 | | | Q 请输入查找内容 | | | | | | | 兴 | | | | | | | 序号 | 代码 二 | > | 公司名称 T | 所属行业或领域 ◆ > | 标可以 | | 1 | A06658.BJ | | 广东美亚旅游科技 ... | 商务服务业 | 北证 | | 2 | A06709.BJ | | 江苏原力数字科技 ... | ...

资料显示，上海妙妙宠科技有限公司法定代表人为段宇皓，成立于2024年，位于上海市，是一家以从事 计算机、通信和其他电子设备制造业为主的企业。企业注册资本100万人民币，并已于2025年完成了天 使轮，交易金额数百万人民币。 来源：市场资讯 天眼查信息显示，上海妙妙宠科技有限公司的股东为：上海滕越璐阳科技合伙企业（有限合伙）、裴逸 飞。 12月8日，天眼查融资历程显示，上海妙妙宠科技有限公司近日获得"天使轮"融资，涉及融资金额数百 万人民币，投资机构为知名产业资本。 ...

Group 1 - Midea Group has completed its share repurchase plan, with a total amount reaching the upper limit of 10 billion yuan, repurchasing 135 million shares, accounting for 1.76% of the total share capital [1] - Mu Xi Co., Ltd. announced the results of its online issuance, with a total of 19,331 winning numbers, each allowing the subscription of 500 shares [2] - ST Yishite plans to transfer 418 million shares, representing 17.93% of the total share capital, to Hubei Jingjiang Industrial Investment Group, making it the controlling shareholder [4] Group 2 - China Merchants Heavy Industry plans to invest 258 million yuan in Shenshan Port Investment Company, acquiring a 20% stake [5] - Snowman Group's metal plate fuel cell stack project has passed final acceptance, establishing a solid technical foundation for mass production [6] - Honghua Digital Technology intends to acquire 49% of Shandong Yingkejie for 105 million yuan, making it a wholly-owned subsidiary [7] Group 3 - Tianfu Communication is planning to issue H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with details yet to be finalized [9] - Tianqi Lithium intends to apply for designated delivery warehouse qualifications for lithium hydroxide at the Guangzhou Futures Exchange [10] - Puran Co., Ltd. plans to acquire 49% of Noah Changtian's equity, which will become a wholly-owned subsidiary [11] Group 4 - Aerospace Rainbow is establishing a weather modification technology company with Zhongtian Rocket, with a total investment of 50 million yuan [12] - Yifan Pharmaceutical's products have been included in the 2025 National Medical Insurance Directory, enhancing its market position [13] - Weidi Co., Ltd. plans to acquire controlling stakes in Jiangsu Jiuxing Precision Technology [14] Group 5 - Agricultural Bank announced a cash dividend distribution of approximately 41.823 billion yuan for the first half of 2025 [20] - Cambridge Technology plans to increase capital by 100 million USD in its US subsidiary to expand production capacity [21] - Hunan Silver plans to conduct annual maintenance from December 9, 2025, to January 5, 2026 [22] Group 6 - Kemin Foods reported a 110.77% year-on-year increase in sales revenue from pig sales in November 2025 [23] - Yisheng Co., Ltd. reported a 28.43% year-on-year decrease in sales revenue from white feather broiler chicks in November 2025 [24] - New Tian Green Energy achieved a cumulative power generation of 13.3689 million MWh in the first 11 months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 8.04% [25] Group 7 - Ankai Bus reported a 57.71% year-on-year increase in cumulative sales in the first 11 months of 2025 [27] - Daqin Railway completed a cargo transportation volume of 37.22 million tons in November 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.75% [28] - Zhongtong Bus reported a 39.53% year-on-year increase in sales volume in November 2025 [29] Group 8 - Ringxu Electronics reported a 1.97% year-on-year decrease in consolidated operating revenue for the first 11 months of 2025 [31] - Xiangpiaopiao's major shareholder plans to reduce holdings by no more than 0.1% of the company's shares [32] - Zhongzi Technology's shareholder plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [33] Group 9 - Goldwind Technology's subsidiary reduced its holdings in Jinli Permanent Magnet, expecting an investment income of approximately 215 million yuan [34] - Hailun Zhe plans to repurchase shares worth 50 million to 100 million yuan [35] - Wentai Technology's major shareholder plans to reduce holdings by no more than 3% of the company's shares [37] Group 10 - Licheng Group signed a procurement agreement with Weijing Intelligent for humanoid robot components, with an estimated contract value of approximately 75 million yuan [40] - Jieshun Technology won the underground parking lot operation management project, expected to generate over 70 million yuan in revenue [42] - Jifutong is a candidate for the China Mobile procurement project, with expected amounts of 411 million yuan and 162 million yuan [43]

Core Insights - The non-bank sector's effective timing indicator shows a drop in trading volume to 2%, historically leading to excess returns when combined with external catalysts [1][8] - Recent developments, including a reduction in investment risk factors by insurance funds and proposals to expand brokerage capital space and leverage limits, have catalyzed the non-bank sector [1][8] Historical Context - Historically, significant movements in the non-bank sector at the year-end and beginning of the year often signal the start of a volatile market [3][9] - Since 2010, in 15 instances of year-end and beginning of the year windows, 7 have seen the initiation of volatile markets coinciding with non-bank sector movements [3][9] Market Performance - Following non-bank sector movements, the overall market typically enters an upward phase, with average increases of 6.8%, 9%, and 12.8% over the next 10, 20, and 30 trading days respectively [4][10] - In the 20 trading days following non-bank sector movements, indices such as the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, and CSI 1000 tend to outperform, with large-cap growth and value styles showing higher average returns [5][11] Statistical Data - The historical performance data indicates that the average returns for various indices and sectors post non-bank movements are significant, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing an average return of 19.8% in certain periods [12]

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced an overall increase on December 8, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3924.08 points, up 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 13329.99 points, up 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index at 3190.27 points, up 2.6% [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market reached 20,517.44 billion yuan, an increase of 3,126.79 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Capital Flow - The net inflow of main funds in the A-share market was 7.34 billion yuan, with an opening net outflow of 79.7 billion yuan and a closing net outflow of 8.67 billion yuan [2] - The net inflow of main funds in the CSI 300 was 10.55 billion yuan, while the ChiNext saw a net inflow of 7.4 billion yuan, and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board experienced a net outflow of 9.19 billion yuan [4] Sector Performance - Among the primary industries, the electronics sector led with a net inflow of 189.28 billion yuan, followed by the communication sector with 76.25 billion yuan, and the electric equipment sector with 30.60 billion yuan [6][7] - The top five industries with net inflows included electronics, communication, electric equipment, computer, and media, while the top five industries with net outflows included biopharmaceuticals, food and beverage, public utilities, and basic chemicals [7] Institutional Activity - The institutional buying activity was notable in several stocks, with Snowman Group (002639) showing a net institutional purchase of 181.63 million yuan, followed by Ruikang Pharmaceutical and Changguang Photonics [9][10] - Conversely, Guangdong Hongda (002683) was among the stocks with significant institutional selling [9]

科技成长股今日归来，CPO、光芯片、光通信等概念强势领涨。指数层面，国证成长100指数上涨3.8%，国证自由现金流指数下跌0.3%，国证价值100指数 下跌0.6%。资金持续布局，Wind数据显示，成长ETF（159259）此前连续4个交易日获资金净流入，合计约2700万元。 国证成长100指数聚焦A股成长风格突出的股票，紧扣经济转型脉搏，当前指数超七成权重集中于电子、通信、计算机板块，精准卡位AI算力核心环节，结 构锐度突出。成长ETF（159259）是市场唯一跟踪该指数的产品，可助力投资者把握成长风格投资机遇。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） ...

Market Overview - On December 8, 2025, the A-share market experienced a significant surge with a trading volume exceeding 2.05 trillion yuan, marking a notable increase from the previous day. Major indices saw gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.54%, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.39%, and the ChiNext Index soaring by 2.6%. Over 3,400 stocks rose, indicating a clear recovery in market sentiment [1] Sector Performance - The telecommunications sector, driven by the CPO (optical module) concept, surged by 4.79%, while technology sectors such as electronics and computers also performed strongly. In contrast, traditional cyclical sectors like coal and oil & petrochemicals experienced slight pullbacks. The non-bank financial sector (brokerage) rose by 1.9%, with a significant increase in trading volume, reflecting the entry of new capital and an increase in risk appetite [1] Market Drivers - The core drivers of today's market performance were the resonance of "policy-driven" and "industry trends." Regulatory policies guided "patient capital" to support technological innovation, while the global AI computing power competition and the fundamental logic of optical module technology upgrades collectively propelled the explosion of the technology sector. The market is transitioning from liquidity recovery to a structurally driven dual-phase [1] Investment Philosophy - The article emphasizes the importance of shifting from a focus on specific annual return targets to a more robust risk management approach. It argues that setting unrealistic return expectations can lead to poor decision-making and unnecessary risks. Instead, investors should concentrate on managing risk and understanding potential losses, which is the true essence of investment [2][3] Risk Management Framework - A systematic risk management framework is essential for effective investment. Key components include: 1. **Asset Allocation**: Define risk ceilings based on personal financial cycles and risk tolerance rather than market predictions [3] 2. **Margin of Safety**: Invest only when prices are significantly below intrinsic value to account for potential errors and unforeseen events [3] 3. **In-depth Research and Diversification**: Conduct thorough research to avoid flawed companies and diversify across uncorrelated opportunities to mitigate individual company risks [3] 4. **Discipline and Position Management**: Adjust overall positions based on market valuations and adhere to pre-set investment criteria to maintain rational risk management [4] Long-term Investment Success - Long-term investment success relies on avoiding significant permanent losses, as the cost of recovering from losses is much higher than anticipated. The article highlights that the art of investing lies in systematically avoiding catastrophic downturns, which ultimately opens the door to potential gains [4][5]

Core Insights - Investors are increasingly pouring money into quantum technology startups, but they may want to consider established companies like IBM, which has a long history and extensive experience in the field [2] - IBM is focusing on developing a new type of quantum computer that could solve complex mathematical problems beyond the capabilities of classical computers, with the potential to revolutionize fields such as drug design and chemical products [2] Group 1: IBM's Quantum Computing Efforts - IBM has been involved in quantum technology research since the early 2000s, led by physicist Jay Gambetta, who manages a team of 3,000 researchers across six continents [3] - The company has chosen to focus on superconducting qubits, which require cooling to just above absolute zero to function properly, leveraging its expertise in microwave technology [4] - IBM has deployed operational quantum computers in various locations, collaborating with institutions like Moderna and the Cleveland Clinic to develop algorithms for future quantum systems [6][7] Group 2: Market Potential and Competition - The Boston Consulting Group predicts that by 2040, annual revenue from quantum hardware and software suppliers could reach between $90 billion and $170 billion [2] - While many startups claim breakthroughs in quantum technology, they face significant challenges in achieving commercial viability [5] - IBM's approach includes a roadmap for scalable error correction, which is crucial for the reliability of quantum computing, and it believes it has the most transparent technology roadmap in this area [7][8] Group 3: Practical Applications and Future Goals - IBM is working on a modular quantum computer that can perform 100 million quantum gate operations by 2029, aiming to provide practical services for clients like Vanguard [11] - The company has secured $1 billion in quantum service order commitments, indicating strong market interest in its quantum computing capabilities [11] - IBM's CEO, Arvind Krishna, has a technical background, which may help the company compete against more agile startups in the quantum space [11]

以最新收盘价计算，A股平均股价为13.80元，其中股价超过100元的有160只，相比上一个交易日增加7 只。 百元股作为判定市场热度的信号之一，历来受到投资者关注。证券时报·数据宝统计显示，截至12月8日 收盘，沪指报收3924.08点，上涨0.55%，A股平均股价为13.80元，个股股价分布看，股价超过100元的 有160只，股价在50元至100元的有431只，股价在30元至50元的有762只。 股价超百元个股中，收盘价最高的是贵州茅台，今日报收1418.22元，下跌0.82%，其次是寒武纪、源杰 科技等，最新收盘价分别为1417.80元、668.00元。 市场表现方面，收盘股价超百元股中，今日平均上涨3.13%，跑赢沪指2.58个百分点。今日上涨的有123 只，涨停的有德明利、东田微等，下跌的有35只，跌幅居前的有匠心家居、佰仁医疗等。 追溯发现，最新百元股近一个月平均上涨3.72%，其间沪指下跌1.84%，涨幅居前的有长光华芯、光库 科技、天普股份等，涨幅分别为69.69%、57.83%、57.24%，今年以来平均涨幅为123.61%，强于沪指 106.54%，累计涨幅居前的有上纬新材、天普股份、品茗科 ...