Core Viewpoint - Intercontinental Shipping (02409) announced a financing agreement for a maximum amount of $42 million, which is subject to the terms of the financing agreement [1] Group 1: Financing Agreement Details - The financing agreement was established between SG Xinde Investment (HK) Limited (as the borrower), the company (as the guarantor), and a bank (as the lender) [1] - The repayment date for the financing is set for three years after the first drawdown, with the possibility of extending it to five years upon mutual agreement [1]

智通财经APP讯，洲际船务(02409)发布公告，于2025年9月23日，公司一家间接全资附属公司SG Xinde Investment (HK) Limited(作为借款人)与公司(作为担保人)及一家银行(作为贷款人)订立一份融资协议， 据此，贷款人同意向借款人提供总金额为最高4200万美元的定期贷款融资，惟须受融资协议条款所规 限。融资的还款日期为首次动用融资之日起三年后当日，经双方同意后可延长至首次动用融资之日起五 年后当日。 ...

Report Title - Domestic commodity futures showed mixed trends, with precious metals generally rising - CITIC Futures Morning Report 20250923 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - After the overseas Federal Reserve's decision, a new round of global liquidity easing is expected, opening up policy space for China's reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts. The market is still dominated by liquidity easing trading, and the risk of the Fed's independence may increase the potential elasticity of future interest rate cuts. Attention should be paid to the actual transmission to the US fundamentals after the rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market is fully expecting a 25bps rate cut. The US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data to be released in early - mid October should be monitored. Historically, it takes about 2 - 3 months for the Fed's preventive rate cuts to impact the US real economy [8]. - In the third quarter, China's economic growth slowed down continuously. The funds from existing pro - growth policies are expected to be in place more quickly. Attention should be paid to the implementation of 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new directions in the "15th Five - Year Plan". Investment data from July to August slowed down significantly, especially infrastructure investment. In addition to seasonal factors, the increasing proportion of "debt - resolution" funds may lead to insufficient infrastructure funds in the fourth quarter. However, the GDP growth rates in the third and fourth quarters are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and combined with the 5.3% growth rate in the first half of the year, the annual target of 5% can still be achieved. If investment and exports continue to decline in September, the probability of the implementation of existing funds and incremental policies in the fourth quarter will increase [8]. - After the domestic and overseas uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may experience a short - term adjustment. However, in the next 1 - 2 quarters, the global loose liquidity and the economic recovery expected driven by fiscal leverage will support risk assets. In the medium - term from the fourth quarter to the first half of next year, the expected performance is equities > commodities > bonds. In the short - term of the fourth quarter, the stock market is expected to be volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas commodities such as gold and non - ferrous metals are favored, and the weak US dollar trend will continue but at a slower pace. In addition, after the rise of domestic interest rates, the allocation value of bonds increases, and bonds should be allocated evenly with equities in the fourth quarter. Gold is a long - term strategic allocation, and interest rate cuts are the main logic in the fourth quarter, with the risk of premature trading of the recovery expectation [8]. Summary by Directory 1. Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: The Fed's decision will lead to global liquidity easing and create policy space for China. The market is dominated by liquidity easing trading, and the Fed's independence risk may affect future rate cuts. The next FOMC meeting is on October 29, and the market expects a 25bps rate cut. Monitor the US September non - farm payrolls and inflation data. Historically, it takes 2 - 3 months for rate cuts to impact the US real economy [8]. - **Domestic Macro**: In Q3, China's economic growth slowed. Existing pro - growth policy funds are expected to be in place faster. Pay attention to 500 billion yuan in financial policy tools and new "15th Five - Year Plan" directions. July - August investment data slowed, especially infrastructure investment. "Debt - resolution" funds may lead to insufficient Q4 infrastructure funds. Q3 and Q4 GDP growth rates are expected to be 4.9% and 4.7% respectively, and the annual 5% target can be achieved. If September investment and exports decline, the probability of policy implementation in Q4 will increase [8]. - **Asset Views**: After uncertainties are resolved, risk assets may adjust in the short - term. In the next 1 - 2 quarters, risk assets will be supported by global liquidity and fiscal leverage. Medium - term (Q4 to H1 next year): equities > commodities > bonds. Short - term in Q4: stock market volatile, domestic commodities depend on policies, overseas gold and non - ferrous metals favored, weak US dollar continues but at a slower pace. Domestic bonds' allocation value increases after interest rate rise, and should be evenly allocated with equities in Q4. Gold is a long - term strategic allocation, with interest rate cuts as the main Q4 logic and the risk of premature recovery trading [8]. 2. Viewpoint Highlights Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Use a dumbbell structure to deal with market divergence. The short - term outlook is volatile due to the attenuation of incremental funds [9]. - **Stock Index Options**: Continue the hedging and defensive strategy. The short - term outlook is volatile due to the deterioration of options market liquidity [9]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short - term. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected changes in tariffs, supply, and monetary easing [9]. Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: The dovish expectations are driving the price up. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to the US fundamentals, Fed's monetary policy, and the global equity market trends [9]. Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: The peak season in Q3 has ended, and there is a lack of upward momentum due to loading pressure. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the rate of freight decline in September [9]. Black Building Materials - **Steel Products**: The return of peak - season demand has improved the fundamentals marginally. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and hot metal production [9]. - **Iron Ore**: Hot metal production has slightly increased, and inventory has remained stable overall. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipment, domestic hot metal production, weather, port inventory changes, and policy dynamics [9]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and downstream restocking has begun. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply has increased slightly, and the futures and spot prices have rebounded in tandem. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [9]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: The decline in the peak - season futures market is limited, but there is still downward pressure in the medium - term. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to raw material costs and steel procurement [9]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The peak - season expectations support the futures market, but the supply - demand outlook is still pessimistic. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to cost prices and overseas quotes [9]. - **Glass**: Supply disruptions are awaited, and demand has improved slightly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to spot sales [9]. - **Soda Ash**: Demand has increased month - on - month, but supply is still growing. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to soda ash inventory [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: Supply disruptions in copper mines have occurred, and the copper price is expected to fluctuate strongly. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - dovish Fed than expected, and less - than - expected domestic demand recovery [9]. - **Alumina**: The spot market has weakened, and inventory has accumulated. The alumina price is under pressure. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected delays in ore production resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme market trends [9]. - **Aluminum**: Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand [9]. - **Zinc**: Inventory has continued to accumulate, and the zinc price is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply [9]. - **Lead**: The supply of secondary lead has decreased, and the lead price is expected to fluctuate upward. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to supply - side disruptions and slowdown in battery exports [9]. - **Nickel**: Indonesia has cracked down on illegal mining, and the nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and unexpected supply shortages [9]. - **Stainless Steel**: Cost support is strong, and the stainless - steel futures market has risen significantly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth [9]. - **Tin**: The resumption of production in Wa State is slower than expected, and the tin price is expected to fluctuate at a high level. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the expected resumption of production in Wa State and changes in demand expectations [9]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply has continued to increase, suppressing the upward space of the silicon price. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to unexpected supply cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations [9]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Supply pressure continues, and geopolitical disturbances still exist. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [11]. - **LPG**: The valuation has been restored, and attention should be paid to cost - side guidance. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the cost of crude oil and overseas propane [11]. - **Asphalt**: The futures price is running below the 3500 pressure level. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to sanctions and supply disruptions [11]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical disturbances have not had a significant impact, and the fuel oil futures price has weakened. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to geopolitics and crude oil prices [11]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Low - sulfur fuel oil is following the weakening trend of crude oil. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to crude oil prices [11]. - **Methanol**: Olefins and port inventory are dragging down the market, and there is still a large contradiction between near - and far - month contracts. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - energy factors and the dynamics of upstream and downstream devices [11]. - **Urea**: The price is under pressure along the cost line, and there is a risk of an over - reaction in sentiment. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to whether the urea export window will be extended, quota adjustments, and the authenticity of the seventh Indian tender [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market sentiment is greatly affected by the expected future inventory build - up, and the willingness to hold positions is low. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to coal and oil price fluctuations, port inventory trends, and device implementation [11]. - **PX**: The postponement of device maintenance and capacity expansion have weakened the supply - demand balance, and the high valuation is being corrected. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [11]. - **PTA**: Low processing fees have increased the willingness of enterprises to cut production and conduct maintenance. Although short - term supply - demand conditions have improved, the long - term oversupply situation cannot be reversed. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations, macro - level changes, and less - than - expected peak - season demand [11]. - **Short - Fiber**: Terminal orders have improved marginally, but the improvement is limited, and high supply poses potential risks. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the purchasing rhythm of downstream yarn mills and the quality of peak - season demand [11]. - **Bottle - Grade PET**: There is short - term concentrated replenishment, but the medium - to - long - term demand rebound height is uncertain, and profits are fluctuating. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to the implementation of bottle - grade PET enterprises' production - cut targets and terminal demand [11]. - **Propylene**: The price difference between propylene and PP is oscillating in the range of 500 - 550. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and the domestic macro - situation [11]. - **PP**: There may be support near the previous low, and PP is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [11]. - **Plastic**: The support from maintenance is limited, and plastic is expected to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices and domestic and overseas macro - situations [11]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to oil prices, macro - policies, and device dynamics [11]. - **PVC**: There is a situation of weak reality and strong expectation, and PVC is expected to fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to expectations, costs, and supply [11]. - **Caustic Soda**: The expectation of alumina production resumption has increased, and caustic soda prices have rebounded. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to market sentiment, production start - up, and demand [11]. Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The expected month - on - month decline in Malaysian palm oil production in September. Attention should be paid to the effectiveness of the support level for oils and fats. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data [11]. - **Protein Meal**: Downstream price - fixing for pre - holiday stocking has led to a rebound at the lower end of the trading range. The short - term outlook is a volatile upward trend, and attention should be paid to US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro - factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canada trade frictions [11]. - **Corn/Starch**: The support at 2150 is strong, and the short - term market may fluctuate. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to demand, macro - factors, and weather [11]. - **Hogs**: Supply is sufficient, and prices are weak. The short - term outlook is a volatile downward trend, and attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [11]. - **Rubber**: The sentiment is bearish, and rubber prices have declined significantly. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to weather in production areas, raw material prices, and macro - changes [11]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: The weakness of natural rubber has dragged down synthetic rubber. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to significant crude oil price fluctuations [11]. - **Cotton**: Attention should be paid to demand and inventory. The short - term outlook is volatile [11]. - **Sugar**: Imports have increased month - on - month, and sugar prices have continued to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to imports [11]. - **Pulp**: There is no obvious driving force for a breakthrough, and pulp is expected to maintain a volatile trend. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - based quotes [11]. - **Offset Paper**: The trading volume is low, and offset paper is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to sales, education policies, and paper mill production dynamics [11]. - **Logs**: The commodity market has adjusted, and logs are expected to decline. The short - term outlook is volatile, and attention should be paid to shipping volume and shipment volume [11].

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on COSCO Shipping Energy, assigning an "Overweight" rating for H-shares with a target price of HKD 12 and a "Neutral" rating for A-shares with a target price of CNY 13 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - COSCO Shipping Energy is the largest oil tanker operator in China and one of the leading companies globally in crude oil, refined oil, and liquefied natural gas (LNG) transportation [1] - The company operates a diversified fleet under the energy transportation segment of China COSCO Shipping Group [1] Group 2: Market Position and Growth Potential - The scale, relatively new fleet age structure, and increasing LNG business provide the company with downside protection in a volatile freight market [1] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from a prolonged upcycle over the years [1] Group 3: Financial Projections - Morgan Stanley forecasts a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 16% for the company's net profit from 2025 to 2027, supported by freight recovery, structural supply-demand catalysts, and cautious fleet expansion [1]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley initiates coverage on Pacific Basin Shipping (02343) with an "Overweight" rating and a target price of HKD 3.2, citing potential demand recovery by 2026 despite short-term pressure on TCE prices due to U.S. tariffs [1] Company Analysis - The company is positioned defensively in the small vessel segment, benefiting from a diverse cargo mix and flexible port access, which enhances profitability visibility [1] - Fuel cost stability is expected to further improve profit visibility for the company [1] - The company is less affected by disruptions in the Red Sea, with only about 3% of dry bulk passing through the region, significantly lower than the 10% for crude oil and 15% for refined products [1] Industry Insights - The global fleet expansion rate has slowed to approximately 3%, and the aging fleet is leading to an increase in the scrapping of old vessels [1] - The company is viewed more favorably than Cosco Shipping Energy (01138) due to lower exposure to geopolitical risks, stable capital expenditures, and limited exposure to U.S. Section 301 tariff risks [1]

Core Viewpoint - The stock of China Cosco Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (中远海能) has experienced fluctuations, with a recent decline of 2.04% and a current price of 11.98 CNY per share, reflecting a total market capitalization of 57.154 billion CNY [1]. Financial Performance - For the first half of 2025, China Cosco achieved a revenue of 11.642 billion CNY, a slight decrease of 0.08% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 28.28% to 1.869 billion CNY [2]. - The company has distributed a total of 14.462 billion CNY in dividends since its A-share listing, with 4.437 billion CNY distributed over the last three years [3]. Shareholder and Market Activity - As of June 30, 2025, the number of shareholders increased by 7.95% to 116,500, with an average of 0 circulating shares per shareholder [2]. - The stock has seen a year-to-date increase of 5.18%, with a recent 5-day decline of 2.60%, a 20-day increase of 11.13%, and a 60-day increase of 18.61% [1]. Ownership Structure - The top ten circulating shareholders include Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited, which holds 91.6484 million shares, an increase of 18.3201 million shares from the previous period [3]. - Other significant shareholders include Huatai-PB CSI 300 ETF and E Fund CSI 300 ETF, with holdings of 24.9615 million and 17.6686 million shares, respectively, both showing increases [3].

Core Points - The "Istanbul Bridge" vessel has officially commenced operations on the world's first Arctic container express route between China and Europe, departing from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port to the UK's largest container port, Felixstowe [1][3] - The vessel loaded over 1,000 TEUs (Twenty-foot Equivalent Units) at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port on September 22, and the one-way transit time to Felixstowe is only 18 days, setting a new record for the China-Europe express route [3] - This Arctic express route is a significant achievement under the "Belt and Road" initiative, contributing to the development of the "Ice Silk Road" and providing faster, low-carbon international logistics options for industries such as high-end manufacturing, cross-border e-commerce, and new energy [3]

摩根大通首次覆盖太平洋航运，予"增持"评级，目标价3.2港元。该行认为，美国关税推动提前出货， 虽然会令今年下半年的TCE价格承压，但随着补库存周期重启，和建筑业带动小宗散货需求反弹，2026 年需求有望复苏。另外，运力增长有所放缓，全球船队扩张速度减慢至约3%，而且船龄老化令拆解旧 船量增加。 该行又认为，集团在小型船只领域的定位具防御性，因其货种丰富，可抵达的港口和航程均具灵活性， 而且燃油成本稳定可提升盈利能见度。加上散货航运受红海干扰影响最轻，2024年前仅约3%干散货经 过该区域，远低于原油的10%与成品油的15%，而霍尔木兹海峡风险主要涉及油轮，集团的盈利敏感度 较低。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - SCFIS is continuously falling, but the freight rate is approaching the break - even line, and the futures market has stopped falling and rebounded. It is not recommended to increase positions and stop - loss should be set [1]. - The tariff issue has a marginal effect, and the core is the trend of spot freight rates. The main contract may be in the bottom - building process. It is recommended to participate with a light position or wait and see [4]. - For short - term strategies, the main contract remains weak, and it is advisable to stop losses on long positions and wait for the bottom - building opportunity. For arbitrage strategies, it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. For long - term strategies, it is advisable to take profits when the contract price rises and wait for the price to stabilize after a pull - back [4]. Summary by Related Contents Freight Rate Index - On September 22, the Shanghai Export Container Settlement Freight Index (SCFIS) for the European route was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was 1198.21 points, down 199.90 points from the previous period; the SCFI price for the European route was 1052 USD/TEU, down 8.8% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 1636 USD/FEU, down 31.0% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the Ningbo Export Container Freight Index (NCFI) (composite index) was 783.71 points, down 13.24% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 673.61 points, down 7.65% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 944.89 points, down 23.30% from the previous period [2]. - On September 19, the China Export Container Freight Index (CCFI) (composite index) was 1125.30 points, down 2.1% from the previous period; for the European route, it was 1537.28 points, down 6.2% from the previous period; for the US West route, it was 757.45 points, down 2.2% from the previous period [2]. PMI Data - The preliminary value of the Eurozone's manufacturing PMI in August was 50.5, the service PMI was 50.7, and the composite PMI was 51.1, showing continuous improvement [3]. - China's manufacturing PMI in August was 49.4%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, and the composite PMI output index was 50.5%, up 0.3 percentage point from the previous month, indicating an acceleration in the overall expansion of business production and operation activities [3]. - The preliminary value of the US S&P Global manufacturing PMI in August was 53.3, and the service PMI was 55.4, both higher than expected [3]. Contract Information - On September 22, the main contract 2510 closed at 1093.7, with a 2.00% increase, a trading volume of 4.49 million lots, and an open interest of 4.60 million lots, a decrease of 1685 lots from the previous day [4]. - The daily limit for contracts 2508 - 2606 was adjusted to 18%, and the company's margin for these contracts was adjusted to 28%. The daily opening limit for all contracts 2508 - 2606 was set at 100 lots [4].

Core Viewpoint - The launch of the "Istanbul Bridge" vessel marks the official commencement of the world's first Arctic container express route connecting China and Europe, enhancing logistics efficiency and supporting the "Belt and Road" initiative [1][3]. Group 1: Route and Logistics - The "Istanbul Bridge" vessel departed from Ningbo-Zhoushan Port's Beilun area on September 23, heading to the UK's largest container port, Felixstowe [1]. - The vessel loaded over 1,000 standard containers at Ningbo-Zhoushan Port on September 22, indicating significant shipping capacity [3]. - The one-way transit time to Felixstowe is only 18 days, setting a new record for the China-Europe express route, following the 26-day route to Germany's Wilhelmshaven scheduled to open by the end of 2024 [3]. Group 2: Economic and Strategic Implications - The Arctic express route is a crucial outcome of the "Belt and Road" initiative, specifically contributing to the development of the "Ice Silk Road" [3]. - This new logistics option will provide faster and lower-carbon international shipping solutions for industries such as high-end manufacturing, cross-border e-commerce, and new energy [3].