这个新闻呀，我认为持续关注黄金和想买饰品还有想屯黄金的人都百分百刷到吧？现在的金价就和过山 车一样，不是一下"暴涨"，就是一下"暴跌"。既疯狂又冷静，莫测难猜呀。2025年初，黄金市场一路飙 升至每盎司3500美元(折合人民币就是1100元/克)，国内某品牌金店甚至还挂出"足金999.9元/克"的标 签，使我们老百姓很难再买得起黄金和首饰，屯金的人这时候抛出卖是大赚，对于普通人想买首饰的就 难受了，工资不够，婚妆难买，祈求有朝一日金价大幅下降，结果预言成真。在今年5月前后，金价突 然大跳水，每日跌幅甚至达到了2％，周大福，老庙等品牌金店价格20天内首破千元大关！ 不知道你们今天有没有看到这个新闻，什么惊天大消息，金价居然得到了下降？ 接下来我们该分析重点，最近黄金价格突然暴跌的原因。中国与美国关税战可能有待放宽，特朗普称： 关税可能会清零。市场开始放松，担忧下降；美指数再次上涨，美联储暂缓降息，美元压制金价；还有 4月底上海黄金交易所出现近百万盎司抛售，部分投资者选择高位套现，也会导致金价踩踏式下跌。一 名黄金期货投资者坦言说：我每天都对市场感到心惊胆战，特别是金价涨到3500美元的时候，最后平仓 了，虽然少 ...

Core Viewpoint - The high volatility of gold prices has led to a decline in consumer demand for gold jewelry, with many consumers adopting a wait-and-see attitude regarding purchases [1][2][3] Industry Overview - Gold jewelry consumption in China has been weak, with a reported 5.96% year-on-year decline in gold consumption, and a significant 26.85% drop in gold jewelry consumption in Q1 [1][5] - Major gold jewelry companies such as China Gold, Lao Feng Xiang, and Zhou Da Sheng have reported substantial declines in both revenue and net profit, indicating a challenging market environment [1][5][7] Company Performance - China Gold's net profit decreased by 62.96%, while Lao Feng Xiang and Zhou Da Sheng also experienced declines exceeding 20% in net profit [1][5] - In contrast, Cai Bai Co. has seen growth in revenue and net profit, attributed to an increased focus on gold bar sales, which are more resilient in the current market [2][11] Market Dynamics - The gold price has fluctuated significantly, with a peak of 1082 yuan per gram in late April, followed by a drop to 998 yuan per gram by May 5, reflecting the volatility that affects consumer purchasing behavior [3][4] - The trend of "cold jewelry, hot investment" has emerged, with consumers increasingly favoring investment products like gold bars over traditional jewelry [13][14] Retail Strategies - Many traditional brands are closing underperforming stores to optimize their retail networks, with Zhou Da Fu and Lao Feng Xiang among those reducing their store counts significantly [18][14] - Companies are encouraged to enhance in-store experiences and diversify product offerings to meet changing consumer preferences, including the rise of "she economy" and personalized products [18][19]

Core Insights - The new consumption wave is gaining momentum, with traditional consumption sectors under pressure, leading to significant stock price increases for companies like Pop Mart and Laopuhuang [1][2] - New consumption brands are characterized by their deep integration of technology and consumer behavior, making them less susceptible to replication [1][2] New Consumption Stocks - New consumption sectors such as trendy toys, tea drinks, and snack foods have seen stock prices double this year, with companies like Pop Mart and Laopuhuang leading the charge [2] - Laopuhuang's stock has increased over 822.14% since its listing last June, while Pop Mart's stock has more than quadrupled in the past year [2] Institutional Investment Trends - There has been a notable increase in the number of funds heavily investing in Pop Mart, with 182 products from 56 fund companies holding over 60 million shares, a significant rise from the previous quarter [3] - Major funds like Huatai-PineBridge and GF Fund have increased their holdings in Pop Mart, while some funds have reduced their positions [3][4] Performance of Funds - Funds that have invested in Pop Mart have shown strong returns, with some achieving cumulative returns of 52.52% and 39.59% year-to-date [4] Characteristics of New Consumption - New consumption brands are not entirely new industries but are redefining existing sectors through innovative products and marketing strategies [6][8] - The rise of new consumption is closely tied to the preferences of younger consumers, who drive brand popularity through social media and peer influence [6][8] Insights from Analysts - Analysts highlight that new consumption brands succeed by addressing new consumer demands through product innovation and emotional value [8] - Key features of successful new consumption companies include unique product offerings and alignment with evolving consumer psychology [8]

高盛在最新发布的研究报告中，重申其长期看多黄金现货与期货价格的核心观点，基线情形下，预计年 底黄金现货价格可能将达到3700美元/盎司，预计将在2026年中升至4000美元/盎司的黄金价格里程碑式 历史新高关口。 5月12日，金价大幅回调，COMEX黄金期货盘中一度跌破3270美元/盎司。截至智通财经发稿，COMEX 黄金期货报3281.1美元/盎司，下跌了1.88%。 瑞银财富管理投资总监办公室的观点指出，对黄金的结构性需求正在上升。在避险需求劲升之后，潜在 贸易协议的消息面不断改善，这可能会限制黄金的潜在上行空间，但也见到黄金配置出现更多结构性转 变的迹象。瑞银预测各国央行将在2025年买入约1000公吨的黄金（此前过去三年的购买量一直保持在这 一水平附近），并将对2025年交易所交易基金 （ETF）净购买量的预测从300公吨上调至450公吨。 长江期货认为，近期黄金价格呈震荡走势，中美关税谈判取得进展导致市场避险情绪降温是价格调整的 主要原因。美国关税政策引起市场担忧，市场对经济硬着陆担忧升温，预计年内降息次数增加。市场预 期美联储将在7月降息，央行购金需求和避险情绪对贵金属价格形成支撑。 与此同时，国 ...

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [4] Core Insights - The consumer services and retail sectors are under pressure, with notable performance in emotional consumption and tourism consumption [1][2] - In 2024, CITIC consumer services revenue and net profit attributable to shareholders are expected to grow by 2% and decline by 24% respectively, while the retail sector is projected to see an 8% drop in revenue but a 6% increase in net profit [1][2] - The report highlights the divergence in performance among sub-sectors, with tourism services (+56%), human resources (+15%), and scenic areas (+3%) showing relative strength [1][2] Summary by Relevant Sections Consumer Services - In 2024, revenue for CITIC consumer services is projected to grow by 2%, while net profit is expected to decline by 24%. The tourism services sector shows a significant revenue increase of 56% [1] - For Q1 2025, the consumer services sector continues to face pressure, with revenues down by 0.1% and net profits down by 8% [2] Retail Sector - The retail sector is expected to see an 8% decline in revenue for 2024, but net profit is projected to increase by 6% [1] - Notable performances include supermarkets and convenience stores, which saw a 156% increase in net profit due to non-operating factors [1] OTA (Online Travel Agency) - The online booking rate for travel continues to rise, with OTA transaction volume expected to grow by 17.8% in 2024 [3] - Major players like Ctrip and Tongcheng are experiencing significant revenue growth, with Ctrip's international business revenue reaching 10% of total revenue [3][6] Scenic Areas - The scenic area sector is expected to see a 3% increase in revenue and a 30% increase in net profit for 2024, driven by strong performances from key players [7] - In Q1 2025, revenue is projected to grow by 2%, but net profit is expected to decline by 18% [7] Hotel Sector - The hotel sector is facing pressure with a decline in RevPAR (Revenue per Available Room), but major hotel groups are maintaining aggressive expansion plans [8][9] - For Q1 2025, major hotel groups are experiencing varying impacts on net profit, with some showing significant declines [9] Human Resources - The outsourcing business remains strong, with companies like Core International and Beijing Human Resources seeing revenue growth of 22% and 14% respectively [10] - Government subsidies are contributing to significant net profit increases for these companies [12] E-commerce and Services - The report highlights the growth of self-owned brands, with companies like Ruoyu Chen achieving a 29.26% increase in total revenue for 2024 [13] - The demand for agency operations is declining, but self-owned brands are driving high growth [13] Dining Sector - The dining sector is under pressure due to intense price competition, but some brands are showing resilience [14] - In Q1 2025, the dining sector shows signs of marginal improvement as price competition eases [14] Jewelry Sector - The jewelry sector is experiencing performance divergence, with strong brands outperforming the market amid rising gold prices [15] - In Q1 2025, brands like Chaohongji and Mankalon are showing significant revenue and profit growth [15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-demand consumer products and travel services, as well as companies benefiting from overseas expansion [17]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" [2] Core Viewpoints - The new consumption valuation system is being elevated, and expectations for tariff relief in the export chain are strengthening [2] - The report highlights the impact of recent overseas supply disruptions in the paper industry, suggesting that pulp prices may stabilize at low levels [3] - The report discusses the recent "breakthrough" in US-China trade relations, indicating potential for improved tariff negotiations [3] - The new tobacco sector is experiencing robust growth, with Japanese tobacco reporting significant revenue increases [4] - The home furnishing sector is seeing a recovery in orders, particularly in custom furniture, driven by government subsidies and promotional activities [4] - The report notes a positive trend in consumer goods, with several brands launching new products and experiencing sales growth [5] - The packaging industry is performing steadily, with companies like Yongxin and Yutong showing strong growth and profitability [5] - The two-wheeler market is expected to maintain good sales momentum, with new product launches from companies like Ninebot [5] - The gold and jewelry sector is witnessing expansion, with companies like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji opening new stores [5] - The cross-border e-commerce sector is facing challenges due to tariff fluctuations, but some brands continue to show strong growth [5] Summary by Sections Paper Industry - Overseas supply disruptions are frequent, and pulp prices are expected to stabilize [3] - Companies like Sun Paper and Xianhe Co. are highlighted for their potential profit improvements [3] Export Sector - Tariff negotiations between China and the US are progressing, with a notable increase in exports to ASEAN countries [3] - Companies with strong overseas layouts are recommended for investment [3] New Tobacco - Japan Tobacco's new tobacco products are showing impressive growth, with a focus on HNB products [4] - Companies like Smoore International and China Tobacco Hong Kong are noted for their potential [4] Home Furnishing - The sector is recovering with increased orders, particularly in soft furnishings and custom furniture [4] - Key companies to watch include Gujia Home and Mousse [4] Consumer Goods - New product launches are driving sales growth in the consumer sector [5] - Brands like Bubble Mart and Runben are highlighted for their structural growth potential [5] Packaging - Companies like Yongxin and Yutong are performing well, with steady growth and profitability [5] Two-Wheeler Market - Sales are expected to remain strong, with new product launches from Ninebot [5] Gold and Jewelry - Companies like Laopu Gold and Chaohongji are expanding their store presence [5] Cross-Border E-Commerce - Some brands are facing sales slowdowns due to price increases, but others maintain strong growth [5]

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies such as Anta Sports, Tabo, and Bosideng, with a recommendation to focus on high-quality brands and companies with strong fundamentals [5][10][28]. Core Insights - Puma's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue growth of 0.1% year-on-year to €2.076 billion, while net profit saw a significant decline of 99.5% to €500,000 due to global economic fluctuations, particularly in the US and China [1][15]. - The report emphasizes the resilience of the sportswear sector, projecting a revenue growth of 4.4% and a net profit decline of only 0.6% for key apparel companies in 2024, with a stronger recovery anticipated in 2025 [4][26]. - The DTC (Direct-to-Consumer) business showed robust growth, with a 12% increase in revenue to €550 million, while wholesale revenue declined by 3.6% [3][20]. Summary by Sections Puma's Q1 2025 Performance - Revenue increased by 0.1% to €2.076 billion, with a slight decline in gross margin by 0.6 percentage points to 47% [1][15]. - Operating profit fell by 63.7% to €6 million, and net profit dropped by 99.5% to €500,000, attributed to economic volatility [1][15]. - Inventory rose by 16.3% to €2.08 billion, mainly due to increased in-transit stock [1][15]. Regional and Business Model Analysis - EMEA region revenue grew by 5.1% to €890 million, while the Americas saw a decline of 2.7% to €750 million, primarily due to a 11.1% drop in North America [2][20]. - The Asia-Pacific region experienced a 4.7% decline to €430 million, with a notable 17.7% drop in Greater China [2][20]. - The company is adapting to US tariff issues by optimizing product sourcing and reallocating production [2][20]. DTC and Wholesale Business Performance - DTC revenue increased by 12% to €550 million, with e-commerce growing by 17.3% and self-operated retail stores by 8.9% [3][20]. - Wholesale revenue decreased by 3.6% to €1.53 billion, driven by weak demand in the US and China [3][20]. Industry Outlook - The report suggests focusing on brands with solid fundamentals and anticipating a recovery in 2025, with the sportswear sector expected to benefit from government policies and increased consumer participation in sports [4][26]. - Recommendations include companies like Anta Sports, Tabo, and Bosideng, which are projected to have strong earnings growth and attractive valuations [28][29].

Investment Rating - The industry maintains a rating of "Buy" for key companies such as Anta Sports, Tabo, and others, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities [10][29]. Core Insights - Puma's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue growth of 0.1% year-on-year to €2.076 billion, while net profit saw a significant decline of 99.5% to €500,000 due to global economic fluctuations, particularly in the US and China [1][15]. - The report emphasizes a focus on robust fundamentals and high-quality brands in the apparel and home textiles sector, anticipating performance recovery and valuation improvement in 2025 [4][26]. - The sportswear segment is expected to benefit from national policy support and increased participation in sports, with a projected revenue growth of 8.7% for key companies in 2024 [4][26]. Summary by Sections Regional and Business Model Analysis - In Q1 2025, EMEA region revenue grew by 5.1% to €890 million, while the Americas saw a decline of 2.7% to €750 million, primarily due to an 11.1% drop in North America [2][20]. - The Asia-Pacific region experienced a 4.7% revenue decline to €430 million, largely attributed to a 17.7% drop in Greater China sales [2][20]. Business Performance - Wholesale revenue decreased by 3.6% to €1.53 billion, while Direct-to-Consumer (DTC) revenue increased by 12% to €550 million, with e-commerce growing by 17.3% [3][22]. - DTC revenue now accounts for 26.3% of total revenue, up 2.8 percentage points year-on-year [3][22]. Key Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies with strong fundamentals, such as Anta Sports and Tabo, which have shown significant revenue growth in Q1 2025 [28]. - Other recommended companies include Hailan Home, which is expanding its business successfully, and Bosideng, which is expected to achieve good performance in FY2025 [28][29]. - In the home textiles sector, Luolai Life is highlighted for its strong performance, with a projected net profit growth of 20% in 2025 [28][29].

Group 1 - The international gold market experienced significant volatility on May 9, with gold prices rebounding sharply after a period of decline, indicating a complex interplay of global economic policies, geopolitical conflicts, and market sentiment [1] - London spot gold regained the $3,330 per ounce level after a drop to around $3,200 per ounce on May 4, reflecting a "V" shape recovery pattern [2][3] - COMEX gold futures also reversed course, closing at $3,328.5 per ounce, marking a daily increase of 0.68% [5] Group 2 - Domestic gold jewelry prices have not yet adjusted to the international gold price fluctuations, with notable brands like Caibai seeing prices drop below 1,000 yuan per gram, currently at 995 yuan [1][7] - Major gold retailers in China, including Chow Tai Fook and Lao Feng Xiang, have also reduced their gold prices, with Chow Tai Fook's price dropping to 1,022 yuan per gram on May 9 [7][8] - The recent price adjustments in domestic gold jewelry reflect the volatility in international gold prices, with several brands experiencing price declines [7][8] Group 3 - The recent fluctuations in the international gold market are closely tied to changes in global trade dynamics, with market risk preferences significantly impacting gold prices [10] - Analysts suggest that while there is potential for upward movement in gold prices due to ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, the short-term outlook may be influenced by developments in U.S. tariff conflicts [11] - Predictions indicate that central banks globally may purchase approximately 1,000 tons of gold by 2025, supporting the long-term bullish outlook for gold [10][11]

作 者丨尹华禄 编 辑丨吴桂兴 近日，七根金条被拍卖一事引发关注。 阿里资产·司法平台显示，此次拍卖的金条共有七根，品牌为"老庙黄金"。其中，三根金条重 2 0 0克，四根金条重1 0 0克，一共1 0 0 0克。 | | | 这些金条评估价为7 3 . 5 0万元，但起拍价仅为5 1 . 4 5万元，以此计算，平均每克黄金的起拍价 约为5 1 4 . 4 7元，相较评估价折价7成。 山东省计量科学研究院出具的《检验报告》显示，这些金条金含量均为9 9 9 . 9%，纯度为足 金。 保真且存在明显价差的黄金自然吸引了用户参与，截至5月9日1 4时3 9分，共有1 3 9人报名， 3 . 2 4万次围观，经过5 0次出价，拍卖价达到8 2 . 9 5万元。据此计算， 平均每克黄金价格为 8 2 9 . 4 7元。 阿里资产·司法平台显示，竞拍者需缴纳约11 4 3万元保证金，并按约5 7万元的幅度加价。尽管 参与门槛较高，这也吸引2 2人报名，4 . 5 4万次围观，经过2 4次出价，一参与者以1 . 2 7亿元成 功竞得。 老 庙 黄 金 的 今 日 （ 5 月 9 日 ） 金 价 显 示，其 工 艺 金 条 ...