原油期货下跌，此前美国总统特朗普表示相信伊朗正在认真谈判，缓解了上周支撑油价的紧张局势。 Tradu的Nikos Tzabouras写道："随着紧张局势降温将焦点转回不利的基本面，跌势可能扩大，"并补充 称，"在全球经济面临阻力的情况下"，供应增长快于需求。不过，Tzabouras说，进一步的下跌可能有 限，"因为供应风险可能持续存在"。随着市场消化美联储新领导层，美元的走势也可能对油价构成压 力。西得州中质油(WTI)下跌4.5%，至每桶62.28美元。 来源：滚动播报 ...

航运数据显示，委内瑞拉的石油出口量从12月的49.8万桶/日反弹至1月在美国控制下的约80万桶/日。 美国在12月对委内瑞拉实施了石油禁运，以向马杜罗施压，并扣押了七艘油轮。封锁导致超过4000万桶 原油和燃料积压在陆上油罐和船只中无法出口，迫使委内瑞拉国家石油公司（PDVSA）在1月初减产。 数据显示，自从美国财政部在1月份向贸易商维托尔公司和特拉菲古拉公司发放了第一批开始出口这些 库存的许可证后，委内瑞拉的石油生产、加工和运输速度都加快了。 一月份的出口量接近去年的平均出口量84.7万桶/日，但PDVSA的合作伙伴和贸易商必须继续加快出口 步伐，以排出库存中的数百万桶石油，从而完全扭转减产的局面。 美国财政部上周签发了一份广泛的许可证，授权美国公司与委内瑞拉国家石油公司（PDVSA）开展业 务，出口、储存、运输和提炼委内瑞拉石油，这是为疏通出口而采取的又一措施。PDVSA的合作伙 伴，包括雪佛龙，仍在等待扩大业务的单独许可证。 上个月，美国重新成为委内瑞拉原油的主要出口目的地，出口量约为28.4万桶/日，其中雪佛龙公司的 出口量为22万桶/日，比上月的9.9万桶/日大幅增加。 美国财政部上周签发了一份广泛 ...

国际油价大幅跳水！ 随着地缘政治风险缓和，国际原油期货价格2月2日大幅下挫，WTI原油、 布伦特原 油盘中跌幅均超过5%。其中，ICE布油一度跌破66美元/桶。 此前，美国总统特朗普表示华盛顿正在与伊朗对话，地缘政治风险溢价随之消退；与此同时，更广泛的大宗商品抛售潮进一步加剧了油价的跌势。 当天，有伊朗媒体报道称，伊朗与美国在未来几天内可能举行高规格谈判。此外，伊朗总统已下令启动核谈判。同日，伊朗外交部发言人证实，伊美双方极有可能 在未来几天内展开对话。 国际油价暴跌 本周一（2月2日），国际油价大幅下跌，布伦特原油期货一度暴跌超5%并跌破每桶66美元；WTI原油一度大跌近6%，价格最低下调至每桶61美元附近。 截至记者发稿，布伦特原油、WTI原油分别下跌4.77%、5.12%，价格分别报66.01美元/桶、61.87美元/桶。在油价下跌背景下，美股盘前，能源公司股价集体下跌， 西方石油、康菲石油均跌近3%，埃克森美孚、雪佛龙跌超1%。 卡洛巴资本有限合伙公司首席投资官哈里斯·库尔希德表示："此次油价下跌，更多是市场头寸的重新调整，而非基本面的实质性转变。目前并无新的供应冲击出 现，此前市场已计入短期供应中断 ...

每经AI快讯，2月2日，石油巨头埃克森美孚股价下跌1%，雪佛龙股价下跌2%。 ...

来源：滚动播报 石油巨头埃克森美孚股价下跌1%，雪佛龙股价下跌2%。 ...

但2月2日油价盘中跌幅一度超过5%。瑞银在其最新发布的一份研究报告中称，本轮油价的大幅攀升， 核心驱动力并非供需基本面的根本性改善，而是伊朗局势升级引发的风险溢价上升。 瑞银强调，油价上涨的可持续性高度依赖地缘冲突的演变。若伊朗及周边地区的能源基础设施未受到实 质性冲击，油价将面临显著回调风险，这与2025年6-7月的市场走势具有相似性——当时地缘紧张局势 缓解后，油价出现了阶段性回落。 01 关键变量：霍尔木兹海峡关闭概率低 原本走势强劲无比的黄金白银突然崩盘，看空情绪也传导到了能源市场。 霍尔木兹海峡的通航状态是影响全球石油贸易的"生命线"，也是本次报告重点关注的核心风险点。 2026年开年以来，受伊朗相关地缘局势紧张影响，布伦特原油价格累计上涨近20%至每桶约70美元。 伊朗供需：产量稳定，出口合理 作为石油市场的关键风险变量，伊朗的石油生产与出口格局并未出现大幅异动。根据国际能源署(IEA) 数据，过去几个月伊朗石油产量保持稳定，2025年12月原油日均产量达到340万桶，展现出较强的生产 韧性。 出口方面，伊朗原油出口量从2025年10月190万桶/日的近期高点回落至约150万桶/日，但仍处于近期形 ...

Market Overview - Global stock markets experienced a "collective retreat" with the S&P 500 futures indicating a fourth consecutive day of decline for U.S. stocks [2][27] - As of the latest update, Dow futures fell by 0.09%, S&P 500 futures dropped by 0.38%, and Nasdaq futures decreased by 0.66% [3][28] - Asian markets faced heavier declines, with the South Korean Kospi index plummeting by 5.3%, triggering a temporary trading halt [3][28] Commodity Market Volatility - Extreme volatility in the commodity market remains a focal point, with gold prices initially dropping by 10% before narrowing losses, and silver prices falling by 16% before recovering most of the decline [5][30] - The Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised margin requirements for precious metals futures, increasing holding costs for traders, which typically pressures prices and trading activity [5][30][31][32] Federal Reserve Leadership Impact - The nomination of Kevin Walsh as the next Federal Reserve Chair is shifting market expectations towards "less/fewer rate cuts," impacting precious metals prices [12][37] - Analysts suggest that Walsh's past criticisms of the Fed and focus on price stability may lead to a reassessment of the dollar's depreciation narrative, contributing to the recent drop in gold, silver, and copper prices [12][37] Upcoming Economic Data and Earnings Reports - Investors are focusing on the upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll report, expected to show an increase of 68,000 jobs, the largest gain in four months, scheduled for release on Friday [12][41] - A busy earnings week is anticipated, with major companies like Google and Amazon set to report their quarterly results [41][42] Individual Stock Movements - Energy stocks are experiencing pre-market declines, with Occidental Petroleum down 3.1% and ConocoPhillips down 2.6% [43] - Rare earth stocks surged in pre-market trading following President Trump's announcement of a $12 billion mineral reserve initiative [43] - Disney shares rose by 4% in pre-market trading after reporting quarterly revenue that exceeded expectations [44]

美国抢了委内瑞拉的石油想高价卖给中国，结果被咱们直接拒收，特朗普前脚还在装大爷，后脚就急得求着咱们买，这回真的是搬起石头砸了自己的脚！ 美国那位"懂王"特朗普，原本以为控制了委内瑞拉就能捏住中国的能源命脉，想借机敲咱们一笔竹杠。结果呢？中国根本不吃这一套，反手就是一个"暂停 购买"，直接把美国给整不会了。 这不，眼看形势不对，特朗普的态度立马来了个一百八十度大转弯，这变脸速度简直比翻书还快。咱们今天就来聊聊，这背后到底藏着什么样的博弈，美国 这如意算盘又是怎么落空的。 说起来，美国这次的操作真的是要把人笑掉大牙。就在今年一月份，美国强行接管了委内瑞拉的石油出口，摆出一副"此山是我开，此树是我栽"的强盗架 势。 特朗普心里盘算得挺美，觉得中国是委内瑞拉石油的大买家，现在货源在他手里，他想怎么定价格，中国就得怎么买单。 于是乎，特朗普一开始那叫一个硬气，公开宣称虽然允许把委内瑞拉的石油卖给中国，但绝对不会按照以前马杜罗政府设定的低价来卖。 P 咱们得先搞清楚中国和委内瑞拉之前的合作模式。大家都知道，中国和委内瑞拉是签了正经协议的，搞的是"石油换贷款"。 很多人可能觉得，不就是买点石油吗，既然美国松口了，买就是了呗 ...

Venezuela's oil exports bounced to some 800,000 barrels per day (bpd) in January under control of the U.S., from 498,000 bpd in December, following the U.S. capture of President Nicolas Maduro and the... ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Guantong Futures Research Report - February 2026 Crude Oil Monthly Report - Release Date: February 2, 2026 - Analyst: Su Miaoda [1] Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. Core Viewpoints - OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. Due to the impact of winter storms, the EIA data shows that U.S. crude oil inventories have decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories have slightly increased, and the overall oil product inventory has decreased. The recent increase in the world economic growth rate by the IMF and the cold weather have alleviated demand concerns, but the enthusiasm for crude oil demand will decline after mid-February. The global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market remains in a supply surplus situation. The EIA's latest January monthly report has raised the surplus幅度 of crude oil supply in 2026. Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. The geopolitical risks in Iran have cooled down, but attention should still be paid to the situation in Iran. The geopolitical situation has cooled down, the impact of the cold wave is short - term, and the Tengiz oilfield in Kazakhstan is gradually recovering. It is expected that crude oil prices will fluctuate weakly in February [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Market Review - In January 2026, crude oil prices first declined and then rebounded. At the beginning of the month, the U.S. raided Venezuela and arrested Maduro, but the global crude oil market had digested the impact of restricted Venezuelan crude oil exports before New Year's Day. Trump said that Venezuela would transfer 30 - 50 million barrels of oil to the U.S., and Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil. As Iran had riots and the U.S. increased its military presence in the Middle East, along with the increase in the world economic growth rate by the IMF and the cold - weather - driven diesel heating demand, demand concerns were alleviated, and crude oil prices rebounded [7]. 2. Crude Oil Position and Warehouse Receipt Situation - In the past two weeks, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds has continued to increase. As of the week ending January 20, the net long position of Brent crude oil managed funds increased by 8,509 contracts to 216,970 contracts, an increase of 4.08% and 71.95% compared to the end of December. The enthusiasm for crude oil speculation has rebounded since mid - December 2025 but remains at a relatively low - to - neutral level in recent years. As of January 28, the number of Shanghai crude oil warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 3.464 million barrels compared to the end of December 2025, still at a low level [11]. 3. Crude Oil Production - OPEC's latest monthly report shows that OPEC's crude oil production in November decreased by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its production in December 2025 increased by 105,000 barrels per day to 28.564 million barrels per day. OPEC+ eight member countries will maintain the original plan to suspend the increase in oil production in March. U.S. crude oil production in the week ending January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, which is near the historical high. The U.S. Energy Secretary called for more than doubling the global oil production at the World Economic Forum [15]. 4. Oil Drilling Rigs - In January, the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs decreased slightly. As of the week ending January 23, the number of U.S. oil drilling rigs was 411, an increase of 1 compared to the previous week and a decrease of 1 compared to the week ending December 30. The slight decline of U.S. oil drilling platforms has increased the expectation that low oil prices will limit U.S. crude oil production growth [19]. 5. U.S. Crude Oil Imports and Exports - According to U.S. Energy Administration data, as of the week ending January 23, U.S. crude oil imports decreased by 805,000 barrels per day to 5.642 million barrels per day, at a relatively low level in the same period of previous years; U.S. crude oil exports increased by 901,000 barrels per day to 4.589 million barrels per day, at a relatively high level in the same period of previous years [23]. 6. China's Crude Oil Processing and Imports - China's domestic crude oil processing volume rebounded month - on - month. In December, China's crude oil processing volume increased by 26.85% month - on - month to 62.459 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, at the highest level in the same period of previous years. From January to December, China's cumulative crude oil processing volume increased by 4.10% year - on - year, and the year - on - year growth rate rebounded slightly. China's domestic crude oil imports also rebounded month - on - month, at the highest level in the same period of previous years. In December, China's crude oil imports increased by 9.98% month - on - month to 55.97 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 17.4%. From January to December, China's cumulative crude oil imports increased by 4.40% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate continued to rebound slightly [27]. 7. U.S. Economic Data and Fed Policy - U.S. non - farm payrolls in December 2025 increased by 50,000, lower than the expected 70,000 and the previous value of 64,000. The unemployment rate in December 2025 was 4.4%, better than the expected 4.5% and the previous value of 4.6%. The non - farm payrolls in October and November were revised down by a total of 76,000. The U.S. consumer price index (CPI) in December 2025 increased by 2.7% year - on - year, the same as the previous month but higher than market expectations. The core CPI in December 2025 increased by 0.2% month - on - month and 2.6% year - on - year before seasonal adjustment. The Fed kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50% - 3.75% in the January interest - rate meeting, in line with market expectations. Trump announced the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the Fed Chairman [31]. 8. Gasoline Crack Spreads - In January, the U.S. gasoline crack spread increased by $2.0 per barrel, while the European gasoline crack spread decreased by $5.0 per barrel. The U.S. and European diesel crack spreads increased by $4.0 per barrel and $2.0 per barrel respectively [35]. 9. U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Demand - The EIA monthly report raised the WTI crude oil price forecast for 2026 by $0.79 per barrel to $52.21 per barrel, lowered the global oil demand forecast for 2026 from 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the global oil production forecast for 2026 from 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day. The IEA raised the global oil demand growth rate forecast for 2026 by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day and raised the global oil production growth rate forecast for 2026 by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day. According to the latest U.S. Energy Administration data, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.08%, and the year - on - year decline has decreased. The weekly production of gasoline increased by 11.78% to 8.757 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 8.266 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 0.39%. The weekly production of diesel increased by 15.47% to 4.069 million barrels per day, and the four - week average production was 3.721 million barrels per day, a year - on - year decrease of 4.78%. The increase in gasoline and diesel production has driven the weekly supply of U.S. crude oil products to increase by 2.49% month - on - month [40]. 10. Crude Oil Inventory - On the evening of January 28, U.S. EIA data showed that as of the week ending January 23, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels, compared with an expected increase of 1.848 million barrels, and were 2.94% higher than the five - year average. The inventory in the Cushing area was reported at 24.785 million barrels, a decrease of 278,000 barrels compared with the previous week, at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The gasoline inventory increased by 223,000 barrels, compared with an expected increase of 1.009 million barrels. The U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) inventory increased by 515,000 barrels to 414.9 million barrels as of the week ending January 23, the highest since the week ending September 30, 2022, and has increased for 26 consecutive weeks [44][48]. 11. Geopolitical Risks - Iranian official Larryjani said on January 31 that the negotiation framework is gradually taking shape. On February 1, eight foreign ministers issued a joint statement condemning Israel for violating the Gaza cease - fire agreement. A new round of tripartite talks between Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia will be held on February 4 and 5, and no formal cease - fire agreement on energy goals has been reached between Russia and Ukraine. Trump believes that an agreement on Cuba is about to be reached and that the negotiation on Greenland has started and the agreement is basically reached [50].