豆粕生猪：期现再度分化 豆粕基差回归 朱皓天 zhuhaotian@jsfco.com 期货从业资格号：F03090081 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0016204 一、行情综述 DCE 豆粕主力 2509 合约下跌，最终收盘价较上个交易日下降 0.39%，收于 3062 吨，较 上一个交易日下降 12/吨，沿海主流区域油厂报价上涨 10-50 元/吨，天津 3020 元/吨，较 昨日上涨 30 元/吨，江苏 3010 元/吨，较昨日上涨 20 元/吨，广东 2910 元/吨，较昨日上涨 10 元/吨。DCE 生猪主力 2509 合约随着 20 元/吨，最终收盘价较上个交易日上涨 0.14，收 于 13835/吨，较上一个交易日上涨 10 元/吨。隔夜 CBOT 美豆，主力合约上涨 0.37%收 1074 分/蒲式耳。 二、 主产区天气 1 / 5 表 1：豆粕生猪期货日度数据监测 6 月 13 日美国中西部农业主产区气象预报信息，西部地区周日之前，零星至大范围零 星阵雨。周六之前，南部地区气温接近至高于正常水准;北部地区气温低于正常水平，周日 至下周一，气温高于正常水平。东部地区周日之前，零星阵雨，下周一，零星 ...

油料日报 | 2025-06-18 下游需求较疲软，大豆价格震荡运行 大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4247.00元/吨，较前日变化+5.00元/吨，幅度+0.12%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07-67，较前日变化-5，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周一，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘稳中上涨，其中基准期约收平。豆油需求前景强劲 提供主要支撑，不过美国大豆种植带天气良好，限制大盘上涨动力。截至收盘，大豆期货稳中有涨，其中7月期约 收平，报收1069.75美分/蒲;8月期约上涨2.75美分，报收1071.75美分/蒲;11月期约上涨5.75美分，报收1060.50美分/ 蒲。6月17日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.09元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝 清市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋 白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22 元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装 ...

农产品日报 | 2025-06-18 养殖需求旺盛，豆粕维持震荡 粕类观点 市场要闻与重要数据 期货方面，昨日收盘豆粕2509合约3074元/吨，较前日变动+29元/吨，幅度+0.95%；菜粕2509合约2682元/吨，较前 日变动+11元/吨，幅度+0.41%。现货方面，天津地区豆粕现货价格3000元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M09-74， 较前日变动+1；江苏地区豆粕现货2900元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差M09-174，较前日变动+1；广东地 区豆粕现货价格2900元/吨，较前日变动跌+20元/吨，现货基差M09-174，较前日变动-9。福建地区菜粕现货价格2640 元/吨，较前日变动+30元/吨，现货基差RM09-42，较前日变动+19。 近期市场资讯，美国农业部作物周报显示，截至6月15日当周，美国大豆播种工作完成93%，上周90%，上年同期 92%，五年均值94%。大豆优良率为66%，上周68%，上年同期为70%。美国全国油籽加工商协会月度压榨报告显 示，5月份NOPA会员压榨大豆1.93亿蒲，比4月份的1.90亿蒲增长1.37%，比去年同期的1.84亿蒲增加5.01%。5 ...

Group 1: Soybean and Oilseed Market - CBOT soybeans showed a stable yet weak performance, with NOPA's soybean crush hitting a historical high for the same period but below expectations, while rainfall in production areas may slow down planting progress [1] - Domestic soybean meal saw an increase in positions and strong performance, driven by accelerated purchases from domestic oil mills, with September shipments at about 20% and uncertainty in long-term supply supporting futures prices [1] - BMD palm oil fell after three consecutive days of gains due to profit-taking and a decline in US soybean oil, while international crude oil remained strong amid geopolitical tensions [1] Group 2: Pork and Egg Market - September live hog futures closed with a slight gain, with prices in Henan province rising to 14.27 yuan/kg, up 0.26 yuan/kg from the previous week, indicating a stable support for futures prices [1] - The main contract for egg futures experienced a decline, with a 1.03% drop to 3545 yuan/500kg, despite a rise in national egg prices, as supply remains ample and consumption is weak [1] Group 3: Corn Market - Corn futures showed a reduction in positions with a near-weak and far-strong trend, as the main funds shifted from July to September contracts, which are fluctuating around the 2400 yuan mark [1] - The spot market saw support from rising wheat prices, with strong prices in Northeast China and stability in North China, while demand for corn remains robust as enterprises increase forward orders [1]

近期涨势有所放缓，近日高位略有回落，短线参与为主。 玉米系产业日报 2025-06-17 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 最新 环比 数据指标 | | | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 玉米淀粉期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/ | | | | | | | 期货收盘价(活跃合约):(日,元/吨) 玉米月间价差(9-1):(日,元/吨) -3 玉米淀粉月间价差(7-9):(日,元/吨) 期货持仓量(活跃合约):黄玉米(日,手) -81840 期货持仓量(活跃合约):玉米淀粉(日,手) | 2364 113 555574 | 5 吨) | 2685 -93 143239 | -4 -1 -11902 | | 期货市场 | | | | | | | | 9216 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米淀粉(日, 期货前20名持仓:净买单量:玉米(日,手) | -96759 | | 1171 | 5131 | | | 注册仓单量:黄玉米(日,手) 0 注册仓单量:玉米淀粉(日,手) | 215285 | 手) | 24236 | 0 | | | 主力合约C ...

6月17日，豆粕期货盘中高位震荡运行，截止发稿主力合约小幅上涨1.45%，报3083.00元/吨。 【消息面汇总】 国家粮油信息中心监测显示，6月13日，主要油厂豆粕库存42万吨，周环比上升3万吨，月环比上升30万 吨，同比下降59万吨，处于历史同期较低水平。预计后续油厂豆粕累库加快。 据外媒报道，马托格罗索州农业经济研究所（IMEA）公布，马托格罗索州6月9日—6月13日当周大豆 压榨利润为515.08雷亚尔/吨，此前一周为558.66雷亚尔/吨。当周，该州豆粕价格为1619.60雷亚尔/吨， 豆油价格为5670.10雷亚尔/吨。 2025年6月第2周，共计10个工作日，巴西累计装出豆粕82.28万吨，去年6月为208.02万吨。日均装运量 为8.23万吨/日，较去年6月的10.4万吨/日减少20.9%。 机构观点 冠通期货：综合来看，美国中西部地区降雨频繁，种植速度减慢。美豆产区暂无天气炒作，南美丰产预 期基本维持。国内大豆大量到港，大豆库存累库，中美关系有好转预期，但远月供给尚不确定。豆粕期 货前期盘面呈现一轮上涨后，近期进一步上涨驱动有所减弱，自身驱动有限，预计豆粕期货盘面将呈现 震荡态势。 国都期货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the粕类 and corn industries is cautiously bearish [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - For the粕类 market, the new - season US soybean sowing is progressing smoothly, and the sowing progress is significantly higher than the historical average. The supply - demand report this month has no significant adjustments. In China, the rise in Brazilian premiums has supported the price of粕类, but the overall supply is still abundant due to high arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, high oil - mill operating rates, and rising粕类 inventories [1][2] - For the corn market, in China, the supply side shows that traders in Northeast China are raising prices and are reluctant to sell, while in North China, corn circulation is tight. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises mainly execute previous orders. The weather in the US corn - growing belt is favorable [3][4] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 粕类 3.1.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the bean粕 2509 contract was 3045 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.13%) from the previous day; the rapeseed粕 2509 contract was 2671 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan/ton (-0.11%) [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the bean粕 spot price was 2970 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 2870 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 2880 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton. In Fujian, the rapeseed粕 spot price was 2610 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton [1] - Market news: The US EPA's new proposal will increase the biomass diesel blending target to 5.61 billion gallons in 2026. If the target is met, the total raw material required will be 20.8 million tons, with soybean oil consumption at 8.32 million tons, an increase of 2.32 million tons (38.5%) from 2024 [1] 3.1.2 Market Analysis - New - season US soybean sowing is going well, and the sowing progress is higher than the historical average. The supply - demand report has no significant adjustments. In China, high Brazilian premiums have increased import costs, supporting the bean粕 price, but the supply is still abundant due to high arrivals of Brazilian soybeans, high oil - mill operating rates, and rising bean粕 inventories [1][2] 3.1.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] 3.2 Corn 3.2.1 Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2507 contract was 2359 yuan/ton, down 19 yuan/ton (-0.80%); the corn starch 2507 contract was 2689 yuan/ton, down 14 yuan/ton (-0.52%) [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market news: The weather in the US corn - growing belt is favorable, with alternating sunny and rainy weather expected in most central areas in the next two weeks. Adequate rainfall has helped relieve drought in some areas [3] 3.2.2 Market Analysis - In China, on the supply side, traders in Northeast China are raising prices, and in North China, corn circulation is tight. On the demand side, the operating rate of deep - processing enterprises has declined, and feed enterprises mainly execute previous orders [4] 3.2.3 Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3]

大豆观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘豆一2507合约4242.00元/吨，较前日变化+1.00元/吨，幅度+0.02%。现货方面，食用豆现货基 差A07-62，较前日变化-1，幅度32.14%。 市场资讯汇总：周五，芝加哥期货交易所(CBOT)大豆期货收盘上涨，其中基准期约收高2.5%，因为美国环保署提 出的生物燃料掺混要求高于行业预期。截至收盘，大豆期货上涨21美分到28美分不等，其中7月期约上涨27.50美分， 报收1069.75美分/蒲;8月期约上涨28美分，报收1069美分/蒲;11月期约上涨27.50美分，报收1054.75美分/蒲。6月16 日，黑龙江哈尔滨市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.09元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江双鸭山宝清市场国 标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江佳木斯富锦市场国标一等蛋白39%蛋白中粒塔 粮装车报价2.12元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江齐齐哈尔讷河市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.22元/斤， 较昨日平；黑龙江黑河嫩江市场国标一等蛋白41%蛋白中粒塔粮装车报价2.18元/斤，较昨日平；黑龙江绥化海伦 市场国标一等蛋白41 ...

2025 年 06 月 17 日 商 品 研 究 豆粕：隔夜美豆收涨，连粕震荡 豆一：黑龙江省储抛储公告，盘面调整震荡 吴光静 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0011992 wuguangjing@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 期货研究 豆粕/豆一基本面数据 | | 收盘价 | （日盘） 涨 跌 | 收盘价 （夜盘） | 涨 跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | DCE豆一2509 （元/吨） | 4242 +24（+0.57%） | 4225 | -21 （-0.49%） | | 期 货 | DCE豆粕2509 （元/吨） | 3045 -3（-0.10%） | 3042 | +3（+0.10%） | | | CBOT大豆07（美分/蒲） | +1.5（+0.14%） 1070 | | | | | CBOT豆粕07（美元/短吨） | 283.8 -7.5（-2.57%） | | n a | | | | 豆粕 | （43%） | | | | 80， 山东 （元/吨） | 2930～2980， 较昨持平至+20； 较昨-20或持平； 7- ...

商品研究 | 走势评级: | 自糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美元疲软提振，软商品有所支撑 [T报ab告le日_R期ep：ortDate] 2025-06-17 报告内容摘要: [Table_Summary] 白糖：2024/25 年度的食糖生产已圆满结束。根据中国糖业协会的统计， 截至 5 月底，全国累计产糖达到 1116 万吨，同比增长 120 万吨；累计销糖 811 万吨，同比增长 152 万吨；销售进度为 72.7%，比去年同期加快了 6.5 个百分点。自 5 月以来，广西的降水缓解了之前的旱情，而云南的降雨量也 高于往年同期，这对甘蔗的生长十分有利。尽管内蒙古的甜菜播种因低温有 所延迟，但近期光照和温度条件的改善使甜菜的生长恢复良好，新疆的甜菜 生长情况总体也较好。在国际市场方面，预计 2025/26 年度的主要产糖国印 度将增产，而巴西的干旱影响相对有限， ...