1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The lithium carbonate market shows a situation where supply growth may slow down and demand gradually recovers. The supply side has an oversupply and large inventory pressure, while the demand side is expected to increase due to the approaching traditional consumption peak season. The option market sentiment is bullish, and the implied volatility slightly decreases. Technically, the 60 - minute MACD has double - lines below the 0 - axis with expanding green bars. The operation suggestion is to trade with a light position in a weak - oscillating manner and control risks by paying attention to trading rhythm [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 72,620 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2,940 yuan; the net position of the top 20 is - 142,837 hands, a decrease of 7,269 hands; the position of the main contract is 348,109 hands, an increase of 8,976 hands; the spread between near - and far - month contracts is 640 yuan/ton, an increase of 520 yuan; the Guangzhou Futures Exchange warehouse receipt is 31,197 hands/ton, an increase of 1,310 hands [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 77,500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan; the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 75,200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 850 yuan; the basis of the Li₂CO₃ main contract is 4,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 2,090 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of spodumene concentrate (6% CIF China) is 942 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 8 US dollars; the average price of amblygonite is 7,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 85 yuan; the price of lepidolite (2 - 2.5%) remains unchanged at 2,645 yuan/ton [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of lithium carbonate is 44,600 tons, an increase of 500 tons; the monthly import volume is 13,845.31 tons, a decrease of 3,852.31 tons; the monthly export volume is 366.35 tons, a decrease of 63.31 tons; the enterprise operating rate is 48%, a decrease of 4 percentage points; the monthly output of power batteries is 133,800 MWh, an increase of 4,600 MWh. The prices of manganese - acid lithium, lithium hexafluorophosphate, cobalt - acid lithium, ternary materials (811 - type, 622 - power - type, 523 - single - crystal - type) remain unchanged [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application Situation - The operating rate of ternary cathode materials is 52%, an increase of 1 percentage point; the operating rate of lithium iron phosphate cathode is 51%, a decrease of 1 percentage point. The monthly output of new - energy vehicles is 1,243,000, a decrease of 25,000; the monthly sales volume is 1,262,000, a decrease of 67,000; the cumulative sales penetration rate is 44.99%, an increase of 0.68 percentage points; the cumulative sales volume is 8,220,000, an increase of 2,286,000; the monthly export volume is 225,000, an increase of 20,000; the cumulative export volume is 1,308,000, an increase of 600,000. The 20 - day average volatility of the underlying is 54.23%, an increase of 1.89 percentage points; the 40 - day average volatility is 57.97%, an increase of 1.06 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The total call position is 279,778, an increase of 24,686; the total put position is 150,923, a decrease of 6,413; the put - call ratio of the total position is 53.94%, a decrease of 7.7343 percentage points; the at - the - money IV implied volatility is 0.35%, a decrease of 0.0074 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In August, new - energy vehicle brands had good performance. Leapmotor delivered 57,066 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of over 88%; XPeng delivered 37,709 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 168.7% and a month - on - month increase of 2.7%; NIO delivered 31,305 vehicles, a year - on - year increase of 55.2%; Xiaomi delivered over 30,000 vehicles. Other brands also had month - on - month growth [2]. - Tianqi Lithium has completed the industrialization preparation for lithium sulfide, a core raw material for next - generation solid - state batteries, and is promoting quality improvement and cost - reduction technology optimization. A 50 - ton lithium sulfide pilot project has started construction in Meishan, Sichuan [2]. - Quanzhou Lvli Technology plans to invest 20 million yuan in a waste lithium - battery recycling and echelon utilization project with an annual processing capacity of 6,000 tons [2]. - In the first half of the year, China's new - energy project investment was about 1.4 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 32.2%. Wind and photovoltaic investment was 560.4 billion yuan, accounting for 40.8% of the industry share, a year - on - year decrease of 44.4% [2].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Cautiously bullish [5] - Inter - delivery spread: None [5] - Cross - variety: None [5] - Spot - futures: None [5] - Options: None [5] Core Viewpoints - The futures market is still operating weakly, but the spot supply - demand pattern is good with decreasing inventory and production. Lithium carbonate production from mica has decreased, but lithium carbonate production from spodumene has made up for it. There is uncertainty in the subsequent approval of other mines. The consumption side provides support, and lithium carbonate is expected to be supported under the influence of mine - end disturbances, but the market fluctuates greatly [3]. Market Analysis - On September 1, 2025, the lithium carbonate main contract 2511 opened at 77,000 yuan/ton and closed at 75,560 yuan/ton, a - 2.73% change from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 540,295 lots, and the open interest was 339,133 lots (346,605 lots the previous day). The current basis is 2,530 yuan/ton. The number of lithium carbonate warehouse receipts was 31,197 lots, a change of 1,310 lots from the previous day [1]. - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 76,500 - 80,200 yuan/ton, a - 1,300 yuan/ton change from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 75,350 - 76,750 yuan/ton, also a - 1,300 yuan/ton change. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 880 US dollars/ton, a - 15 US dollars/ton change from the previous day [1]. - The weekly production decreased by 108 tons to 19,030 tons. The production from lithium spodumene increased slightly, while the production from mica decreased slightly. The weekly inventory decreased by 407 tons to 141,366 tons. Downstream inventory continued to increase, intermediate inventory increased slightly, and smelter inventory decreased [2]. Strategy - Pay attention to the mine - end operation situation. Although the lithium carbonate market is expected to be supported, the market fluctuates greatly, and participants need to manage risks [3].

Group 1 - Lithium stocks are experiencing weak performance, with Ganfeng Lithium down 3.91% at HKD 30.46 and Tianqi Lithium down 3.65% at HKD 38.52 [1] - Lithium carbonate futures have been fluctuating downwards, with the main contract dropping over 3% on September 2, currently priced at CNY 73,180 per ton [1] - Everbright Futures suggests that recent news factors have led to a rapid price decline, which has absorbed some of the gains from production disruptions, indicating a potential revaluation of mining permit expectations [1] Group 2 - Despite the price decline, lithium ore prices remain relatively firm due to potential supply-side disruptions and strong demand, suggesting limited downside potential and a wide range of price fluctuations [1] - Attention is drawn to September 30, when a report on a lithium mining project in Jiangxi must be completed and submitted, which may provide clarity on mining permit issues for other projects [1]

Group 1 - Lithium stocks are experiencing weak performance, with Ganfeng Lithium down 3.91% at HKD 30.46 and Tianqi Lithium down 3.65% at HKD 38.52 [1] - Lithium carbonate futures have been fluctuating downwards, with the main contract dropping over 3% on September 2, currently priced at CNY 73,180 per ton [1] - Everbright Futures suggests that recent news factors have led to a rapid price decline, which has absorbed some of the gains from the production halt at the Jiangxi lithium mine [1] Group 2 - The market may be re-evaluating expectations regarding mining license issues, with potential supply-side disruptions still present, keeping lithium ore prices relatively firm [1] - The demand outlook remains positive, indicating limited downside potential for prices, which are expected to exhibit wide fluctuations [1] - Attention is drawn to September 30, when a report on the Jiangxi lithium project must be completed and submitted, which may provide clarity on mining license issues for other projects [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - With the significant increase in the return of risk assets, the vicious cycle of low returns and slow asset appreciation caused by the severe bias of residents' wealth allocation towards deposits and fixed - income in the past few years will be reversed. Residents' wealth allocation will enter a new cycle, with the proportion of equity assets rising continuously in the long term, which will become the underlying force for China's economic recovery and reshape the Chinese financial market [21]. - The PMI data in August showed some improvement but the amplitude was average. Production was resilient, but demand needed further observation. The macro - narrative presented positive changes, which still required actual data verification. The bond market was still slightly unfavorable until the end of October, with interest rates having an upper limit. It was recommended to defend and seize opportunities in fluctuations and over - adjustments, and look for counter - attack opportunities after the end of October [21]. - The adjustment space of the bond market is limited, and allocation opportunities should be observed. As the stock market valuation rises, the relative cost - effectiveness of stocks and bonds will gradually change. The current interest rate adjustment space is limited, and the upper limits of 10 - year and 30 - year treasury bonds are still around 1.75 - 1.8% and 2.05 - 2.1% respectively [22]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Data Quick View - GDP growth rate in Q2 2025 was 5.2% year - on - year, slightly lower than the previous quarter but higher than the same period last year [1]. - In August 2025, the manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, slightly higher than the previous month and the same period last year; the non - manufacturing PMI for business activities was 50.3%, slightly higher than the previous month and the same as the same period last year [1]. - In July 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of M0, M1, and M2 were 11.8%, 5.6%, and 8.8% respectively. The growth rate of M1 increased significantly compared with the previous month and the same period last year, while the growth rate of M0 decreased slightly [1]. - In July 2025, the CPI was flat year - on - year, and the PPI decreased by 3.6% year - on - year, the same as the previous month [1]. 3.2 Commodity Investment Reference 3.2.1 Comprehensive - The Implementation Plan for the Fiscal Interest Subsidy Policy for Personal Consumption Loans was officially implemented on September 1st, and some bank executives were optimistic about its impact. Credit card installment business was not within the scope of interest subsidy [2]. - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states issued a statement on strengthening digital economy development, planning to strengthen cooperation in digital economy development policies and new - generation communication technology [2]. 3.2.2 Metals - COMEX gold futures reached a new high of $3557.1 per ounce. The rise was driven by factors such as the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, geopolitical risks, weak dollar, and central banks' gold purchases [3]. - On September 1st, international silver prices soared, with the COMEX silver price reaching $41.64 per ounce and the London spot silver price reaching $40.754 per ounce, a 14 - year high. The rise was driven by supply - demand fundamentals, Fed rate - cut expectations, and risk - aversion needs [3]. - Tianqi Lithium completed the industrialization preparation for lithium sulfide, a core raw material for next - generation solid - state batteries, and started a 50 - ton pilot project [3][4]. - In August 2025, the average price of tungsten powder in the Yangtze River reached over 575,000 yuan per ton, with a significant monthly increase [4]. 3.2.3 Coal, Coke, Steel, and Minerals - As of mid - August, the price of rebar decreased by 0.2% month - on - month to 3261 yuan per ton, while the price of coke increased by 2.96% month - on - month to 1377.7 yuan per ton, a new high since mid - February [5]. 3.2.4 Energy and Chemicals - On September 1st, Syria's oil export and the suspension of oil sales to India tightened the crude oil supply, and the weak dollar supported oil prices. US sanctions on Brazil and Ukraine's attacks on Russia's energy facilities also affected the market [6][7][8]. - HSBC maintained the Q4 2025 Brent crude oil price at $65 per barrel, with risks from OECD inventory increases or OPEC+ production increases [7]. - In August, Russia's pipeline natural gas exports to Europe decreased by 2% month - on - month [7]. 3.3 Financial News Compilation 3.3.1 Open Market - On September 1st, the central bank conducted 1827 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1057 billion yuan [11]. 3.3.2 Key News - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit achieved multiple results, including signing the Tianjin Declaration and approving the 2026 - 2035 development strategy [12]. - By the end of July, the bond market custody balance exceeded 190 trillion yuan, indicating the optimization of the financing structure and the enhancement of the financial system's resilience [12]. - Multiple banks in Shanghai adjusted mortgage interest rates, no longer distinguishing between first - and second - home loans [13]. 3.3.3 Bond Market Summary - In the bond market, spot bonds and futures warmed up, with most bond yields falling by about 1bp, and treasury bond futures rising [16]. - The central bank's reverse repurchase decreased and turned to net withdrawal, but the inter - bank funds were generally stable [16]. 3.3.4 Foreign Exchange Market Express - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1332, down 2 points from the previous trading day, and the central parity rate was adjusted down by 42 points [20]. - The US dollar index fell 0.18%, and most non - US currencies rose [20]. 3.3.5 Research Report Highlights - Different institutions had different views on the bond market, including the long - term rise of equity asset allocation, the short - term unfavorable situation of the bond market, and limited adjustment space [21][22]. 3.4 Stock Market Key News - On Monday, the A - share market was strong, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index rising 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index rising 2.29%. The turnover was 2.78 trillion yuan. The non - ferrous and AI hardware sectors were strong, while the satellite Internet and large - finance sectors were weak [26]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 2.15%, with the pharmaceutical and non - ferrous sectors rising strongly and the automobile industry chain falling. Southbound funds had a net purchase of 119.42 billion Hong Kong dollars [26]. - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange optimized the margin collateral arrangement, adjusting the interest payment and fees of cash collateral and reducing the financing cost of non - cash collateral [27].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report indicates that on September 1st, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures declined, with increased trading volume and decreased open interest. The spot market had fair transactions, and the basis premium widened. In terms of cost, the price of lithium pegmatite concentrate rose, while mica prices fell. On the supply side, last week's lithium carbonate production slightly decreased, with little change in the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials. Downstream demand showed an increase in the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials last week, an increase in the production scheduling of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate in September, and an increase in the production of power batteries last week. Terminal demand saw a continued year - on - year growth rate but a month - on - month decline in new energy vehicle sales in July, average 3C shipments, and an increase in the production scheduling of energy - storage batteries in September. Inventory showed a decrease in registered warehouse receipts and social inventory, with smelters reducing inventory and downstream and other sectors being tight. Overall, with good profits, high lithium carbonate production, rising downstream demand, and the reduction of social inventory, both short - term supply and demand are strengthening. The short - term fundamentals have little change, and the market is still easily influenced by news. It is expected that the lithium carbonate price will fluctuate within a range. Operationally, it is recommended to conduct short - term range trading, and when holding positions, appropriate options should be bought for protection, or straddle options can be bought. [2][3] 3. Summary According to Related Content Market Data - **Futures Prices**: On September 1st, 2025, compared with August 29th, the closing prices of near - month, consecutive - one, consecutive - two, and consecutive - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures all decreased, with decreases ranging from 1,460 to 1,700 yuan. The overall closing price decreased by 1,620 yuan. [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of lithium carbonate futures was 540,295 lots (+50,237), and the open interest was 339,133 lots (-7,472). [3] - **Inventory**: The inventory was 31,197 tons (+1,310). The SMM lithium carbonate inventory also showed certain changes, with a decrease of 407 tons in the total inventory compared with the previous week. [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis (SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price - lithium carbonate active contract closing price) increased by 320 yuan. The price spreads between different grades of lithium compounds also changed, such as the battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate spread increasing by 1,050 yuan. [3] - **Raw Material Prices**: The price of lithium pegmatite concentrate (6%, CIF China) increased by 4 US dollars per ton, while the prices of various types of mica decreased. [3] - **Downstream Product Prices**: The prices of some downstream products such as lithium iron phosphate, lithium cobalt oxide, and some types of electrolytes remained stable or decreased slightly, while the prices of some ternary precursors increased slightly. [3] Company News On September 1st, Tianqi Lithium (002460) stated in its 2025 semi - annual performance briefing that it has completed the industrialization preparations for lithium sulfide, a core raw material for next - generation all - solid - state batteries. The company's 50 - ton lithium sulfide pilot project has started construction in Meishan, Sichuan, using self - developed new technologies and equipment with low - risk and rapid mass - production capabilities. [3] Market Analysis - **Cost**: The price of lithium pegmatite concentrate rose, but mica prices fell. [3] - **Supply**: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate slightly decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate from different raw materials changed little. [3] - **Demand**: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In September, the production scheduling of lithium cobalt oxide and lithium manganate increased, and the production of power batteries increased last week. Terminal demand showed a continued year - on - year growth rate but a month - on - month decline in new energy vehicle sales in July, average 3C shipments, and an increase in the production scheduling of energy - storage batteries in September. [3] - **Inventory**: Registered warehouse receipts and social inventory decreased, with smelters reducing inventory and downstream and other sectors being tight. [3] Investment Strategy It is recommended to conduct short - term range trading, and when holding positions, appropriate options should be bought for protection, or straddle options can be bought. [3]

Core Viewpoint - Tianqi Lithium Industries, Inc. reported a net profit of 84.41 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from losses in the previous year, despite a decline in lithium product prices due to market fluctuations [1] Financial Performance - The company achieved an operating revenue of 4.833 billion yuan in the first half of 2025 [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 84.41 million yuan, indicating a significant improvement compared to the previous year [1] Influencing Factors - The decline in lithium product prices was primarily due to price volatility in the lithium market [1] - The company benefited from a shortened pricing cycle for its lithium mines, which reduced the previous mismatch in pricing mechanisms between chemical-grade lithium concentrate and lithium chemical product sales [1] - Exchange rate fluctuations, particularly the appreciation of the Australian dollar against the US dollar since 2025, contributed to an increase in the company's foreign exchange gains [1]

锂矿企业半年报显示，2025年行业趋势聚焦于资源争夺，尤其是低成本盐湖资源。 业绩方面，锂矿板块整体稍好于2024年同期，但企业间分化明显，盐湖股份（000792）和藏格矿业 （000408）净利润同比增长，市值领先。 天齐锂业（09696）、赣锋锂业（01772） 有业内人士向记者表示，现在锂行业大趋势是争夺低成本的盐湖——包括在我国的青海、西藏，以及国 外的南美洲地区，目前各家都在抢占盐湖资源。 有熟悉锂产业的人士告诉记者，尽管上半年有企业"亏钱"硬扛，但随着"反内卷"深入到锂电材料行 业，"锂矿企业最艰难的日子应该要过去了"。 近期，宁德时代（300750）江西锂矿停产一事让碳酸锂供给收缩预期大幅抬升。受此影响，碳酸锂期货 与现货价格联动上涨，一度升至8万元/吨上方。 有市场人士直言，碳酸锂价格的上涨将直接影响到矿端生态，或间接推动矿商利润修复与供应响应。 中信建投（601066）研报表示，8月国内碳酸锂产量再创新高，突破8.5万吨，环增5%，同增39%。云母 提锂及盐湖提锂产量显著回落，辉石提锂产量增长明显。下游需求进入传统旺季，预期向好，锂价具备 支撑。 锂矿企业相关港股： 锂价"高开低走"影响业绩 ...

Core Insights - The lithium mining industry is focusing on resource competition, particularly low-cost salt lake resources, with companies like Salt Lake Co. and Zangge Mining showing significant profit growth and market capitalization leadership [1] - The lithium price has experienced a "high open and low close" trend affecting performance, while salt lake lithium extraction maintains profitability due to its cost advantages [2] - The recent suspension of lithium production by CATL in Jiangxi has raised expectations for a contraction in lithium carbonate supply, leading to a surge in both futures and spot prices, exceeding 80,000 yuan per ton [2] Industry Trends - The lithium industry is currently in a phase of competing for low-cost salt lake resources, particularly in regions such as Qinghai and Tibet in China, as well as South America [2] - Despite some companies facing losses, the industry is expected to recover as the "anti-involution" trend takes hold in the lithium battery materials sector [2] - The production of lithium carbonate in China reached a new high in August, exceeding 85,000 tons, marking a 5% month-on-month increase and a 39% year-on-year increase [3] Company Performance - Salt Lake Co. and Zangge Mining have reported year-on-year profit growth, indicating a positive performance relative to their peers in the lithium sector [1] - The profitability of lithium miners is expected to improve as the price of lithium carbonate rises, which will positively impact their profit margins and supply responses [3] - Key Hong Kong-listed lithium companies include Tianqi Lithium (09696) and Ganfeng Lithium (01772) [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate main contract has experienced significant fluctuations due to frequent disturbances on the supply side and needs time for digestion and consolidation in the short term. If the supply - side disturbance expectations remain unchanged, the supply - demand gap is expected to widen in September, and prices may rise irrationally. Attention should be paid to whether the other 7 mining enterprises in Yichun with unexpired mining licenses will stop production after September 30 [4]. - In the short term, lithium carbonate may weaken next week, and investors should wait for opportunities to go long at low prices [4]. Summary by Directory 1. August Market Review - In August, the lithium carbonate main contract first rose and then fell, with the futures price breaking through 90,000 yuan/ton at its highest. Supply - side news had many disturbances, but the actual impact on the fundamentals was small, and price fluctuations were mainly due to futures market capital games [5]. 2. Fundamental Analysis Supply - In August, despite supply - side disturbances, the monthly output of lithium carbonate reached a new high due to the increase in capacity utilization and hedging by external - purchasing enterprises. As of August 29, the weekly output decreased to 19,000 tons, with different trends in production from different sources. The import volume has declined for three consecutive months but is expected to increase in the second half of the year. Attention should be paid to the potential production halt of 7 mining enterprises in Yichun after September 30 [6][7]. Demand - In August, the production of lithium iron phosphate is expected to be 311,400 tons, a 7% month - on - month increase, and the production of ternary cathode materials is expected to increase by about 3% to 70,800 tons. In the power market in July, new energy vehicle production and sales showed seasonal slowdown, and the power battery loading volume decreased. In the energy storage market, demand orders are good, with saturated production schedules in September and October, and high - price transactions for forward orders. The industry's anti - low - price initiative is expected to improve profitability [8][9]. Inventory - As of the week of August 29, domestic inventory decreased slightly, with social inventory still exceeding 140,000 tons. Inventory is flowing from processing plants to downstream sectors, and warehouse receipts are rising after centralized cancellations [10]. 3. Technical Analysis - The 2 - hour cycle Band Winner indicator of the lithium carbonate 2511 contract shows a green line, blue ribbon, and green ladder, indicating that the contract may weaken in the short term. The 2 - hour cycle long - short dividing water level overnight is 80,960 yuan/ton [11].