Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the overall industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - The short - term prices of major agricultural products in the commodity futures market, including soybean meal, palm oil, and soybean oil, are expected to be in a state of shock, with an overall bias towards a weak shock [5][6][7]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs Soybean Meal (M) - **Price View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [5][6]. - **Core Logic**: With the overall stable - to - weak spot prices of soybean meal in North China and Northeast China, the futures price fluctuates narrowly. The spot basis of soybean meal has accelerated its decline to 200, and market sentiment has weakened. With the expected arrival of a large number of imported soybeans gradually materializing, the domestic supply pressure after May is gradually emerging. Due to the low physical inventory of feed enterprises, there is still restocking demand in the later stage. The short - term soybean meal inventory has not yet reached an inflection point, and the accumulation of soybean meal in oil mills is expected to occur in late May. The short - term futures price of soybean meal will maintain a range - bound shock [5]. Palm Oil (P) - **Price View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [6][7]. - **Core Logic**: With the increasing supply of palm oil in Southeast Asia, the export competitiveness and demand prospects of palm oil will affect its inventory pressure. In China, with the increase in palm oil purchases, the domestic inventory is expected to rise from a low level. The reverse substitution of domestic palm oil has not started. In the oil and fat sector, although palm oil has substitution potential, the spot performance is limited, and there is a lack of obvious driving factors. Without capital attention, the futures price of palm oil will continue to follow the market passively [7]. Soybean Oil (Y) - **Price View**: Short - term, medium - term, and intraday views are all "shock - weak", and the reference view is also "shock - weak" [6]. - **Core Logic**: Affected by factors such as US tariff policies, US soybean oil inventory, biodiesel demand, domestic oil mill inventory, and channel restocking demand, the price is in a state of shock - weak [6].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The methanol 2509 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend. The short - term view is volatile and strong, the medium - term view is volatile and weak, and the overall reference view is a strong - side operation [1][5]. 3) Summary by Related Content a. Price Movement and Core Logic - The methanol 2509 contract shows a volatile trend in the short - term, is volatile and weak in the medium - term, and is volatile and strong on the day. The overall view is a strong - side operation because the positive factors prevail [1]. - The high production profit of domestic coal - to - methanol this year has led to high methanol operating rates and weekly output during the spring maintenance period, resulting in significant internal supply pressure. However, the slow loading of methanol cargoes in the Middle East has alleviated the pressure on domestic port methanol inventories, and the inventory reduction rhythm is smooth. The profit of downstream olefin futures has recovered, and the demand factor is gradually increasing. After the May Day holiday, affected by the US's increased economic sanctions on Iran and a slight rise in natural gas futures prices, the domestic methanol 2509 futures contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend [5]. b. Price Calculation Notes - For varieties with night trading, the starting price is the night - trading closing price; for those without night trading, it is the previous day's closing price. The ending price is the day - trading closing price on the same day, and the price increase or decrease is calculated based on these [2]. - A decline of more than 1% is considered a fall, a decline of 0 - 1% is a volatile and weak trend, an increase of 0 - 1% is a volatile and strong trend, and an increase of more than 1% is a rise [3]. - The volatile and strong/weak trends only apply to the intraday view, and no distinction is made for the short - term and medium - term views [4].

Tabl e_Title 2025 年 4 月 28 日 大类资产运行周报（20250421-20250425） 风险提示：美国通胀数据改善不及预期 大类资产运行报告 全球主要资产表现 | | 近一周变动 | | --- | --- | | 新兴市场股市指数 | 2.81% | | Table_Fi rstSto ck 发达市场股市指数 主要资产涨跌幅表现 | 4.16% | | 全球债券指数 | 0.33% | | 全球国债指数 | 0.13% | | 全球信用债指数 姓名 | 0.73% 分析师 | | 美元指数 | 0.36% SAC 执业证书编号：S1111111111111 | | RJ/CRB 商品价格指数 | Xxxxxx @essence.com.cn 1.72% | | | 021-68767839 | | 标普高盛商品全收益指数 | -0.15% | 丁沛舟 高级分析师 期货从业资格号：F3002969 投资咨询从业证书号：Z0012005 dingpz@essence.com.cn 010-58747724 相关报告 大类资产运行周报（20250113 -20250117）-美国通胀数据 ...

Report Overview - **Date**: April 2, 2025 - **Research Institution**: Guangzhou Financial Holdings Futures Co., Ltd. - **Research Team**: Li Binlian, Ma Chen, Xue Libing, Li Jun Investment Ratings - **Stock Index Futures**: Short - term: Slightly Strong; Medium - term: Strong [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Short - term: Narrow - range Fluctuation; Medium - term: Strong [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Short - term: Weak; Medium - term: Under Pressure [3] Core Views - **Stock Index Futures**: Domestic industrial enterprise profit growth is structurally recovering, and capital market system optimization promotes long - term capital inflows. Overseas, US tariff policies and inflation data affect the market. The equity market pricing returns to fundamentals, with short - term performance expectations and medium - term domestic technology innovation as the main lines [1] - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Post - quarter liquidity is generally optimistic, but central bank operations limit overnight rates. Policy emphasizes long - term bond yields, and the weak fundamental improvement expectation supports long - term bonds [2] - **Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel)**: Steel exports face trade barriers, consumption improvement is less than expected, and raw material inventory pressure is large, leading to steel prices under pressure [3][4] Summary by Category Stock Index Futures - **Varieties**: IF, IH, IC, IM - **Reference Strategy**: Hold HO2504 - C - 2750 out - of - the - money call options, and exit the long IH2504 and short IC2504 hedge portfolio opportunistically [1] - **Core Logic**: - **Domestic**: From January to February, industrial enterprise profits were structurally stable, and PMI data was positive. Capital market systems for securities issuance and refinancing were optimized, and long - term institutional funds were promoted [1] - **Overseas**: US auto tariff policies and high inflation data increased market concerns about stagflation, and the uncertainty of tariffs and interest rate cuts affected the equity market [1] Treasury Bond Futures - **Varieties**: TS, TF, T, TL - **Reference Strategy**: Hold long positions in T2506 and TL2506 [2] - **Core Logic**: - **Funds**: Post - quarter liquidity was optimistic, but central bank net withdrawals limited overnight rate decline. Long - term funds' interest rates were relatively stable [2] - **Policy**: The central bank's Q1 monetary policy meeting emphasized long - term bond yields to prevent systemic risks [2] - **Fundamentals**: Economic data in the first two months was mediocre, with weak external demand, inflation, and financial data, hindering the improvement expectation [2] Black and Building Materials Futures (Steel) - **Varieties**: Rebar, Hot - rolled Coil - **Reference Strategy**: Exit the hot - rolled coil 05 - 10 inter - period positive spread strategy [3] - **Core Logic**: - **Exports**: Steel exports faced trade barriers such as anti - dumping duties from Vietnam and South Korea [3] - **Consumption**: Steel consumption improvement was less than expected, with poor construction funds and weak rebar consumption [3] - **Raw Materials**: Iron ore and coal - coke inventories had pressure, which might increase steel supply and put pressure on costs [3][4]