一、美元利率趋于宽松，贵金属板块整体受益 截至2025年8月，美联储已完成本年度首轮降息，联邦基金利率降至4.75%。随着通胀回落至目标区间附近，市场普遍预计下半年仍有一次降息的空间。货 币政策边际宽松意味着： | 以联系电话 | ◎联系地址 | 开盘 实时会价 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 专注于金银铲铂铭钵钉回收精炼! | | | | 商品 | 回收 | 销售 | ■ | | | 2025-08-05 10:36 平泽回收行情 | | | | 黄金 | 779.09 | 781.13 | 780 | | | | | 776 | | 白银 | 8.49 | 8.66 | 8.1 8. | | 铂金 | 300.60 | 304.60 | 304 | | | | | 300 | | 把金 | 269.50 | 277.50 | 274 269 | | | | | . | | 粗佬 | 1300.00 | -- | - | | 粗錶 | 660.00 | i | 660 | | | | | 660 | | 粗钉 | | | 130 | | | 130.00 | -- | 1 ...

SLV白银ETF持仓15056.67吨，较前一交易日减少5.65吨； 8月1日延期补偿费支付方向：Ag(T+D)—多付空。 【要闻速递】 1.美国7月非农录得增长7.3万人，远低于预期的11万人；前两个月大幅下修25.8万个岗位，交易员完全 定价年底前美联诸降息两次。 北京时间周一(8月4日)亚盘时段，美元指数交投于98.91附近，现货白银今日开盘于36.99美元/盎司，目 前交投于36.68美元/盎司附近，白银t+d交投于8935元/千克附近，沪银主力交投于8962元/千克附近。今 日基本面关注美国6月工厂订单月率。 2.特朗普发表见解非农就业数据被操纵，目的是让我难堪，已指示团队立刻解雇劳工局局长。俄乌冲突 本不应发生，已下令将两艘核潜艇部署在相应区域以回应梅德韦杰夫的言论。如果鲍威尔还不降息，理 事会应该接管控制权。先扬言会毫不犹豫地解雇鲍威尔，后又称若解雇鲍威尔将扰乱市场，鲍威尔很可 能继续留任美联储主席。 3.关于关税加拿大贸易部长：预计总理卡尼和特朗普将在接下来的几天内进行会谈。达成降低部分关税 的协议是一种"选择"。 上周五(8月1日)美元指数下跌1.38%，收报98.68，现货白银收报37.0 ...

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Cautiously long [1] - Silver: Stabilize and test long [1] - Copper: Buy on dips [1] - Zinc: Sell on rallies [1] - Lead: Resistance on rallies [1] - Tin: Resistance on rallies [1] - Aluminum: Under pressure [1] - Nickel: Under pressure [1] - Industrial Silicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Polysilicon: Cautiously bearish [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Cautiously long [1] 2. Core Views - The weak US data has increased the expectation of interest rate cuts and the risk of stagflation, leading to an inflow of safe - haven funds and a significant increase in gold prices. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [3][4]. - For copper, short - term supply - demand contradictions are due to seasonal factors and inventory pressure, while long - term contradictions lie in demand uncertainty and potential demand growth. After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded [8][9]. - Zinc supply is abundant, and demand is weak during the off - season. It is recommended to hold short positions and seize opportunities to short on rallies [10][12]. - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to downstream weakness and inventory accumulation [13][15]. - Nickel prices face pressure due to weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, and stainless steel also faces over - supply in the off - season [17][19]. - Lithium carbonate inventory has decreased, and with potential supply risks and improved demand, it is recommended to go long on dips [21][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Gold and Silver - **Market Review**: Weak US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts, and the risk of stagflation reappeared. Safe - haven funds flowed in, causing a significant increase in gold prices [3]. - **Basic Logic**: US data increased the expectation of interest rate cuts; "reciprocal tariffs" are about to take effect; global gold demand is growing strongly. The long - bull logic of gold remains unchanged in the long term [4]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Pay attention to the support around 770 for gold in the short term. For silver, it has fallen back to the previous range, and it is recommended to enter long positions after stabilization [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: Shanghai copper stopped falling and fluctuated narrowly [8]. - **Industry Logic**: Short - term supply - demand contradictions are related to seasonal factors and inventory pressure. Medium - term contradictions are the coexistence of tight copper concentrate supply and high electrolytic copper production. Long - term contradictions are between demand uncertainty and potential demand growth [8]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: After the non - farm payroll data was disappointing, the dollar index weakened, and copper prices rebounded. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term and be bullish on copper in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai copper [77500, 79500] and LME copper [9650, 9850] [9]. Zinc - **Market Review**: Shanghai zinc fluctuated weakly [11]. - **Industry Logic**: Zinc concentrate supply is abundant, processing fees are rising, and demand is weak during the off - season [11]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to hold previous short positions and take partial profits. Seize opportunities to short on rallies in the long term. Pay attention to the price range of Shanghai zinc [21800, 22600] and LME zinc [2650, 2850] [12]. Aluminum - **Market Review**: Aluminum prices were under pressure, and alumina also showed a downward trend [14]. - **Industry Logic**: For electrolytic aluminum, costs have decreased, inventory has increased, and downstream demand is weak. For alumina, supply is abundant, and inventory is accumulating [15]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for Shanghai aluminum in the short term and pay attention to inventory changes. The main operating range is [20000 - 20700] [16]. Nickel - **Market Review**: Nickel prices were under pressure, and stainless steel rebounded and then fell [18]. - **Industry Logic**: Nickel supply - demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Stainless steel has over - supply issues in the off - season [19]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: It is recommended to sell on rallies for nickel and stainless steel and pay attention to downstream inventory changes. The main operating range for nickel is [118000 - 121000] [20]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main contract LC2509 reduced positions for five consecutive days, with a significant decline in trading volume and a gain of over 1% [22]. - **Industry Logic**: The inventory has stopped increasing, and the supply - demand situation may improve. The compliance risk of mining licenses is a key factor [23]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: There are still expectations of supply speculation. It is recommended to go long on dips in the range of [68000 - 71500] [24].

截至2024年年报，中国白银集团营业总收入43.14亿元、净利润996.6万元。 本文源自：金融界 作者：行情君 7月31日，中国白银集团(00815)盘中下跌5.56%，截至10:01，报0.425元/股，成交563.42万元。 中国白银集团有限公司是一家全产业白银及贵金属综合企业，主营业务包括白银制造、珠宝新零售及白 银交易。该公司是香港上市的中国领先民营白银生产商，也是伦敦金银市场协会的中国成员企业之一， 连续12年获评为"中国用户最喜爱20家白银品牌"。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant collapse due to multiple factors, leading to a sharp decline in prices and a loss of investor confidence [1][3][5]. Market Performance - On July 29, the Shanghai Gold Exchange silver TD contract opened at 9168 yuan/kg and closed at 9181 yuan/kg, down 11 yuan from the previous day, marking a narrow trading range with a daily fluctuation of only 0.64%, the lowest of the month [1]. - The domestic and international price gap for silver widened to 120 yuan/kg, the highest premium in nearly a month, indicating that buying silver in Shanghai is nearly 4% more expensive than in New York [1]. - The silver sector saw a significant drop, with 90% of stocks in the sector declining, and the Tonghuashun silver concept index losing 1.36% in a single day [3]. Industry Impact - The global largest photovoltaic silver paste supplier, Heraeus, lowered its third-quarter shipment guidance, reducing capacity utilization from 85% to 70%, signaling a downturn in the photovoltaic industry [3]. - The domestic photovoltaic glass operating rate has fallen to 65%, with silver plating demand decreasing by 4.2%, leading to a reduction of 120 tons/month in industrial silver usage [3]. - The adoption of silver-coated copper technology in HJT cells has reduced silver consumption from 14 tons to 10 tons per GW, indicating a nearly 30% decrease in silver's role in the photovoltaic sector [3]. Investor Sentiment - The net asset value of the Guotou Ruijin silver futures ETF dropped by 1.54%, with a 3.2% reduction in scale, reflecting ongoing panic among retail investors [5]. - Speculative long positions in COMEX silver futures saw a significant reduction, with a decrease of 5200 contracts, indicating a loss of financial premium for silver [5]. External Factors - The strong rise of the US dollar index, which increased by 0.32% to 103.85, was exacerbated by a trade agreement announcement, leading to a market sell-off of safe-haven assets like silver [7]. - The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surpassed 4.3%, creating a higher opportunity cost for holding silver, which has a volatility of 38% compared to the 5% of Treasury bonds [7]. Technical Indicators - The Shanghai Futures Exchange has signaled bearish trends, with the 5-day moving average crossing below the 10-day moving average, indicating a potential acceleration of selling pressure [8]. - Key support levels for domestic silver TD have shifted down to 9120 yuan, with a breach potentially triggering further selling from quantitative funds [8]. Options Market Activity - On July 29, the open interest for the "9200 yuan put option" surged by 30,000 contracts, indicating a strong bet on prices falling below 9000 yuan, further intensifying market pessimism [9].

Group 1 - The company, Hunan Silver (002716.SZ), announced its first share repurchase on July 30, 2025, through a centralized bidding method [1] - A total of 2,000,000 shares were repurchased, accounting for approximately 0.071% of the company's total share capital of 282,308.86 million shares [1] - The repurchase price was set at 4.65 yuan per share, with a total transaction amount of 9,300,000 yuan (excluding transaction fees) [1]

Group 1 - The gold market showed slight price increases, with Au99.95 closing at 769.37, up by 2.34 yuan or 0.31% [3][4] - Au100g opened at 772.00 and closed at 771.00, reflecting a minor increase of 0.55 yuan or 0.07% [3] - The trading volume for Au(T+D) was significant at 26,258, with a closing price of 769.48, up by 2.36 yuan or 0.31% [4] Group 2 - The NYAuTN06 contract opened at 775.30 and closed at 773.80, with an increase of 1.7 yuan or 0.22% [5] - The market for PGC30g showed a stable price, opening and closing at 770.00, with a slight increase of 2.9 yuan or 0.38% [5] - The overall trading activity in the gold market indicates a steady demand, with significant transaction volumes across various contracts [3][4][5]

据彭博社等美国媒体报道，特朗普回国途中在总统专机"空军一号"上接受随行媒体记者采访时发表上述言论，但同时表示，不确定施加关税等制裁是否会 对俄罗斯起作用。 特朗普还说，尚未收到俄罗斯方面对他设定期限的回复："我还没收到任何回复。真遗憾。" 另外，据央视新闻报道，特朗普称，他不担心制裁俄罗斯对石油市场或价格的潜在影响，并表示将提高国内石油产量以抵消任何影响。 据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普29日称，他把俄罗斯与乌克兰达成和平协议的最后期限设定为10天，从当天开始计算。如果俄方没有就此取得进展，将面 临美国新的制裁。 当天，原油盘中一度大涨超4%。WTI原油期货收涨3.75%，报69.21美元/桶。布伦特原油期货收涨3.53%，报72.51美元/桶。 COMEX黄金期货收涨0.48%，报3383美元/盎司。COMEX白银期货收涨0.43%，报38.385美元/盎司。 此前一天（7月28日），特朗普在与英国首相斯塔默会晤前对在场记者表示，他对普京"十分失望"，将考虑缩短此前对俄罗斯设置的50天内达成俄乌和平 协议的期限。特朗普表示，他打算从当天起，设定一个新的最后期限，大约是10到12天。 特朗普说，他认为根本看不到 ...

据新华社报道，美国总统特朗普29日称，他把俄罗斯与乌克兰达成和平协议的最后期限设定为10天，从当天开始计算。如果俄方没有就此取得进展，将面 临美国新的制裁。 据彭博社等美国媒体报道，特朗普回国途中在总统专机"空军一号"上接受随行媒体记者采访时发表上述言论，但同时表示，不确定施加关税等制裁是否会 对俄罗斯起作用。 特朗普还说，尚未收到俄罗斯方面对他设定期限的回复："我还没收到任何回复。真遗憾。" 另外，据央视新闻报道，特朗普称，他不担心制裁俄罗斯对石油市场或价格的潜在影响，并表示将提高国内石油产量以抵消任何影响。 当天，原油盘中一度大涨超4%。WTI原油期货收涨3.75%，报69.21美元/桶。布伦特原油期货收涨3.53%，报72.51美元/桶。 COMEX黄金期货收涨0.48%，报3383美元/盎司。COMEX白银期货收涨0.43%，报38.385美元/盎司。 此前一天（7月28日），特朗普在与英国首相斯塔默会晤前对在场记者表示，他对普京"十分失望"，将考虑缩短此前对俄罗斯设置的50天内达成俄乌和平 协议的期限。特朗普表示，他打算从当天起，设定一个新的最后期限，大约是10到12天。 特朗普说，他认为根本看不到 ...

Market Overview - The US dollar index is trading around 97.51, while spot silver opened at $38.04/oz and is currently around $38.28/oz. Silver T+D is trading at approximately 9181 CNY/kg, and the main Shanghai silver contract is around 9209 CNY/kg [1] - Last Friday, the US dollar index rose by 0.19% to close at 97.67, while spot silver fell by 2.26% to $38.14/oz. The decline in silver was attributed to progress in US-EU trade negotiations, which reduced safe-haven demand [1] Silver Market Data - The SLV silver ETF holdings increased by 22.61 tons to a total of 15,230.43 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - On July 25, the compensation fee payment direction for Ag (T+D) was in favor of longs [2] Trade Agreements and Tariffs - President Trump announced a trade agreement with the EU, which includes a 15% tariff, $600 billion in US investments, and zero tariffs from EU countries on US goods. However, there is ambiguity regarding whether the 15% tariff covers pharmaceuticals and steel/aluminum [3] - The US Commerce Secretary stated that the deadline for tariff increases on August 1 will not be extended, and a decision on chip tariffs will be made within two weeks [4] Silver Market Analysis - The silver market opened last week at $38.108, experienced a slight pullback to $38.061, and then surged to a weekly high of $39.523 before retreating. The weekly low was $37.923, and it closed at $38.163, forming a long upper shadow shooting star pattern, indicating potential bearish sentiment for the upcoming week [5] Upcoming Economic Indicators - Key economic indicators to watch include the UK CBI retail sales balance at 18:00, the OPEC+ ministerial monitoring committee meeting at 20:00, and the US Dallas Fed business activity index at 22:30 [6]