玻璃产销：沙河63，湖北80，华东59，华南50 | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/10/9 | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/9/30 周度变化 日度变化 | 2025/9/23 | 2025/9/29 | | | | | 2025/9/23 | 2025/9/29 | | 2025/9/30 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1155.0 | 1224.0 | 1241.0 | 86.0 | 17.0 | FG05合约 | 1312.0 | 1346.0 | 1326.0 | 14.0 | -20.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1147.0 | 1203.0 | 1207.0 | 60.0 | 4.0 | FG01合约 | 1183.0 | 1228.0 | 1210.0 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Glass valuation in 2025 faces two major pressures: supply surplus and inventory accumulation affecting spot prices, and the financial and profit situation of the real - estate industry limiting the upstream's share. In Q4, glass is expected to continue in a pattern of weak demand and strong expectations, and the valuation boost from the demand side is limited. Cost support for the glass industry will strengthen marginally, and attention should be paid to the valuation repair power from the supply side [3][56][68]. - For soda ash, the supply - surplus pattern remains in Q4, with high industry inventory and operating pressure. New capacity addition and slow capacity clearance will continue to put pressure on the spot price. The cost of synthetic soda ash production is expected to decline in October. The SA01 contract should pay attention to the previous low support in the medium - term and the spot low - price support in the short - term [5][7][109]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass 2025 Q4 Strategy Report 1.1 Glass 2025 Q3 Review - Supply: In Q3, ignition advanced, cold - repair slowed, and daily melting increased. A total of 2 float glass production lines were cold - repaired, and 4 were ignited. By the end of September, the daily melting of glass was 161,300 tons per day, an increase of 3,500 tons per day compared to the end of Q2. The glass production cost decreased slightly, and the industry profit improved slightly, but natural - gas production lines were still in the red [17][18]. - Demand: In Q3, there was support from rigid demand in deep - processing, and the demand for replenishing inventory from the mid - and downstream was released. As of mid - September, the deep - processing order days of glass downstream were 10.5 days, with a month - on - month increase of 1.0% and a year - on - year increase of 2.9%. The inventory of mid - and downstream enterprises increased [25]. - Inventory: In Q3, the glass inventory shifted to the mid - and downstream of the industrial chain. By September 26, the total inventory of float glass manufacturers was 59.355 million weight boxes, a decrease of 9.861 million weight boxes compared to the end of June, and a year - on - year decrease of 18.56% [46]. 1.2 Glass 2025 Q4 Outlook - Demand: The overall demand trend is downward. In Q4, the rigid demand is expected to be strong first and then weak. The high inventory of the mid - stream may squeeze the upstream production and sales. The demand from the automotive industry is expected to maintain a high year - on - year increase, while the home - appliance industry's order volume is expected to decline year - on - year [56][57]. - Supply: There is still room for ignition and cold - repair of production lines in Q4. Policies such as clean - energy transformation and "anti - involution" may bring downward risks to supply [61]. - Industry Structural Adjustment: Policies to promote the structural optimization and green transformation of the glass industry are expected to be implemented repeatedly in Q4. The discussion on the Shahe clean - energy transformation project will also continue, but the progress of fuel switching in glass factories may be slower than expected [67]. 1.3 Glass Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - Valuation: The cost support for the glass industry will strengthen marginally. The valuation boost from the demand side is limited, and attention should be paid to the supply - side factors for valuation repair [68]. - Strategy: In Q4, glass is expected to continue in a pattern of weak demand and strong expectations. There may be a situation where production and sales weaken and the spot price cools down. For the FG01 contract, pay attention to the low - buying opportunity after the premium is reversed and based on the cost [69]. Soda Ash 2025 Q4 Strategy Report 2.1 Soda Ash 2025 Q3 Review - Supply: In Q3, the decline in the operating rate due to maintenance was limited. The supply pressure remained high due to the high - capacity base and new capacity put into production in Q2. By September 26, the soda - ash output in September was about 2.8204 million tons, with a heavy - soda output of 156,260 tons and a light - soda output of 125,780 tons. The average heavy - soda ratio in September was 55.40%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.03%. The operating rate of soda - ash plants in September was about 87.24%, with a month - on - month increase of 1.28% and a year - on - year increase of 8.17% [87]. - Cost Valuation: In Q3, the increase in coal prices led to an increase in the cost center of synthetic soda - ash production. The soda - ash industry still faced great loss pressure [87]. - Demand: The demand for heavy soda from the glass industry improved in Q3. The daily consumption of heavy soda by float and photovoltaic glass was about 49,800 tons by September 29, with a month - on - month increase of 300 tons per day and a year - on - year decrease of 2,000 tons per day. The demand for light soda from downstream industries was supported. In September, the weekly average apparent demand for light soda was 342,700 tons, with a year - on - year increase of 1.096 million tons and a month - on - month increase of 221,000 tons [90]. - Import and Export: In August, China's net export of soda ash remained at a historically high level. In August 2025, China exported 215,400 tons of soda ash, with an average export price of 170.64 US dollars per ton, equivalent to 1,222 RMB per ton, and imported 289.9 tons [94]. - Inventory: In Q3, the upstream inventory of soda ash fluctuated at a high level and decreased in September with the mid - and downstream replenishing inventory. By September 26, the inventory of soda - ash plants was 1.6515 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 216,000 tons [99]. 2.2 Soda Ash 2025 Q4 Outlook - Supply: The second - phase project of Yuanxing is expected to be put into production within the year, increasing the supply pressure. After the maintenance season, the planned production - capacity loss will decrease, and the operating rate is expected to rise, further increasing the supply pressure. The industry will continue to clear excess capacity, but the clearing process is slow [102]. - Demand: The demand for light soda is supported, with strong performance in traditional and emerging industries. The supply of float glass in Q4 is expected to be stable, and the daily melting of photovoltaic glass is expected to be stable with minor fluctuations [105][106]. 2.3 Soda Ash Balance Sheet and Strategy Outlook - Supply - Demand Outlook: In Q4, the supply of soda ash is expected to remain high with reduced maintenance and new capacity addition. The demand is expected to be stable, with support for light soda and stable daily melting of float and photovoltaic glass [109]. - Valuation: The current spot price can promote capacity clearance, but the process is slow. With new capacity expected to be put into production, the spot price of soda ash is expected to continue to be under pressure. The cost of synthetic soda - ash production is expected to decline in October [7][109]. - Strategy: In the surplus pattern, the spot price of soda ash is expected to continue to find the bottom. The implementation of the second - phase project of Yuanxing may further push down the soda - ash price. For the SA01 contract, pay attention to the previous low support in the medium - term and the spot low - price support in the short - term [7].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: Cautiously bearish [2] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [2] - L: Bearish consolidation [2] - PP: Bearish consolidation [2] - PVC: Low - level oscillation [2] - PX: Cautiously bearish [2] - PTA: Cautiously bearish [4] - Ethylene glycol: Cautiously bearish [4] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [4] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [4] - Natural gas: Cautiously bullish [6] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [6] - Glass: Low - level oscillation [6] - Soda ash: Low - level oscillation [6] Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical disturbances and OPEC+ production expansion lead to increased crude oil price volatility, with a downward pressure on prices in the long - term. For other energy and chemical products, their prices are affected by factors such as cost, supply - demand, and inventory, showing different trends [2][4][6] Summaries by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices fell significantly, with WTI down 3.45%, Brent down 3.08%, and SC up 1.10% [7] - **Basic Logic**: In mid - to late September, Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries caused oil prices to rebound. The focus is on the October 5 OPEC+ meeting, and in the long - term, supply may exceed demand, likely pushing oil prices down to around $60 [8] - **Fundamentals**: Supply from the Iraq - Turkey pipeline has recovered to 15 - 160,000 barrels per day. Indian refinery crude processing volume in August decreased by 4.4% month - on - month. As of September 19, US commercial crude inventory decreased by 607,000 barrels [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and buy call options. Focus on the range of [475 - 485] for SC [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On September 29, the PG main contract closed at 4,295 yuan/ton, up 0.23% [13] - **Basic Logic**: The cost of oil is weakening, downstream chemical demand is rising, and the supply is abundant during the double - festival. As of September 29, the number of warehouse receipts decreased [14] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4250 - 4350] for PG [15] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7,181 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan [19] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. Social inventory has been decreasing for 5 weeks. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is strengthening due to the peak season of shed films [20] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [7100 - 7250] for L [20] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,903 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [24] - **Basic Logic**: It follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. The supply pressure may ease, and the downstream demand is entering the peak season [25] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [6800 - 7000] for PP [25] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 4,896 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [29] - **Basic Logic**: The fundamentals are supply - strong and demand - weak, with inventory accumulating for 14 weeks. However, low prices and positive macro - expectations support the price. There are many planned device overhauls in October [30] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [4800 - 5000] for V [30] PX - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan [33] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices have little change, and demand - side PTA may have more overhauls later. The supply - demand balance is expected to be loose, and inventory is still relatively high [33] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Stop loss on short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [6560 - 6670] for PX511 [34] PTA - **Market Review**: On September 26, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,590 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [36] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side pressure may ease due to planned overhauls. Demand has improved recently. The supply - demand balance in September is tight and is expected to be loose in the fourth quarter [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Gradually stop loss on short positions. Hold long positions lightly before the festival and look for opportunities to short on rebounds after the festival. Focus on the range of [4560 - 4650] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On September 26, the ethylene glycol spot price in East China was 4,311 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan [40] - **Basic Logic**: Domestic devices have reduced their loads, and overseas devices have little change. Terminal demand has improved, but inventory is low. The market is concerned about the supply increase from new devices [40] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions and look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4165 - 4240] for EG01 [41] Methanol - **Market Review**: On September 26, the methanol spot price in East China was 2,293 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: The supply pressure is still large, but demand has improved, and the social inventory is decreasing. Cost support is stabilizing [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices [45] Urea - **Market Review**: On September 26, the small - particle urea spot price in Shandong was 1,600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [49] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is relatively loose, with production resuming. Domestic demand is weak, while exports are good. Inventory is accumulating [50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold short positions. Look for opportunities to go long on dips in the long - term [4]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views Glass and Soda Ash - The overall supply - demand pattern of soda ash is still bearish, and a short - selling strategy during rebounds is recommended. For glass, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. In the fourth quarter, the implementation of policies and the load regulation of soda ash plants should be tracked [1]. Logs - The log market is in a volatile pattern. With the approaching of the "Golden September and Silver October" season, the improvement of shipment volume should be observed. Currently, the market lacks a strong upward driving force, and it is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term [3]. Industrial Silicon - From September to October, the supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the balance is shifting to a more relaxed state. In the short term, the upward driving force is insufficient, and the price may fluctuate between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the production reduction rhythm of silicon material enterprises and Sichuan - Yunnan industrial silicon enterprises in the fourth quarter [4]. Polysilicon - The supply - side regulation effect of polysilicon is not as expected, and the over - capacity pattern remains unchanged. Before the National Day holiday, the price is expected to fluctuate within a range of 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton. Policies on capacity clearance and industry storage, as well as the actual operation rate and production reduction implementation of polysilicon enterprises, should be followed [5]. Natural Rubber - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market has no obvious long - short contradictions, and the trading atmosphere is cautious. The price is expected to be weakly volatile in the short term, with the 01 contract ranging from 15,000 - 16,500 yuan/ton. The raw material output in the peak - production period of the main producing areas and the possible impact of La Nina should be monitored [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass and Soda Ash Prices and Spreads - Glass prices in different regions remained unchanged, while glass futures contracts 2505 and 2509 declined. Soda ash prices in different regions were stable, and the soda ash 2509 contract decreased slightly. The basis of some contracts increased [1]. Supply - Soda ash production rate and weekly output decreased. Photovoltaic daily melting volume and the price of 3.2mm coated film remained unchanged [1]. Inventory - Glass inventory decreased slightly, soda ash factory inventory decreased, and soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased. The number of days of soda ash inventory in glass factories remained unchanged [1]. Market Situation - The over - supply problem still exists. Although the factory inventory has decreased, the inventory has actually transferred to the middle and lower reaches. The weekly production remains high, and the demand is mainly for rigid needs. For glass, the deep - processing orders are still weak [1]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - Some log futures contracts fluctuated slightly, and the prices of some spot logs increased. The basis of some contracts increased [3]. Supply - The monthly port shipment volume and the number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea decreased. The inventory in major ports decreased [3]. Demand - The average daily shipment volume increased [3]. Market Situation - The log market is in a volatile state, with low trading volume. The short - term upward driving force is lacking [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some industrial silicon products decreased slightly, and the basis of some products increased [4]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of industrial silicon contracts changed significantly [4]. Fundamental Data - The production of industrial silicon, organic silicon DMC, and polysilicon increased, while the production of recycled aluminum alloy decreased. The export volume of industrial silicon increased [4]. Inventory - The inventory in Xinjiang decreased, while the inventory in Yunnan and Sichuan increased slightly. The social inventory remained unchanged [4]. Market Situation - The supply of industrial silicon is increasing, and the balance is becoming more relaxed. The price may fluctuate in a certain range in the short term [4]. Polysilicon Spot Prices and Basis - The average prices of N - type polysilicon products were mostly stable, and the basis of N - type materials increased [5]. Futures Prices and Monthly Spreads - The main futures contract of polysilicon decreased, and some monthly spreads changed significantly [5]. Fundamental Data - The weekly and monthly production of polysilicon increased. The import and export volumes of polysilicon and silicon wafers changed [5]. Inventory - The polysilicon inventory increased, and the silicon wafer inventory decreased [5]. Market Situation - The over - capacity problem of polysilicon persists, and the price is expected to fluctuate within a certain range before the holiday [5]. Natural Rubber Spot Prices and Basis - The prices of some natural rubber products decreased, and the basis and non - standard price difference changed [6]. Monthly Spreads - Some monthly spreads of natural rubber contracts changed significantly [6]. Fundamental Data - The production of natural rubber in some countries in July changed. The tire production in August increased, while the tire export decreased. The import of natural rubber increased [6]. Inventory - The bonded area inventory and factory futures inventory of natural rubber decreased [6]. Market Situation - Before the holiday, the natural rubber market is in a volatile state. The supply may increase due to reduced rainfall in Southeast Asia, and the demand faces export and domestic sales pressure [6].

9月纯碱燃料成本陆续上涨，价格也稍有提振，但多数企业仍延续亏损状态。从供应端来看，预期十月 份纯碱产量整体或维持高位，供应问题仍是制约价格稳定上行的重要阻力。需求端来看，短时下游需求 变化较小，节前下游用户积极备货，原料库存有所增加，目前已进入尾声，国庆节期间下游可能主要以 消化自身库存为主，纯碱企业库存或有累积。中期来看，纯碱基本面偏弱，高供应压力下现货价格暂时 缺乏上涨驱动，且下游利润偏低，后市不排除出现负反馈效应。(作者单位：齐盛期货) ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found. Core Viewpoints - In the glass market, spot prices in various regions showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable, and the production - sales situation also varied by region. In the soda ash market, factory inventory decreased significantly while delivery warehouses had a small increase, and downstream demand was driven by pre - holiday restocking [2]. Summary by Related Content Glass - **Spot Price Changes**: From September 19th to September 26th, the price of 5mm large - plate glass in Shahe Security increased from 1155.0 to 1224.0, a weekly increase of 69.0 and a daily increase of 17.0; Wuhan Changli's 5mm large - plate glass price rose from 1100.0 to 1180.0, a weekly increase of 80.0 and a daily increase of 40.0. However, the prices of Shandong and South China's 5mm large - plate glass remained unchanged [2]. - **Futures Contract Price Changes**: The FG05 contract price decreased from 1383.0 on September 25th to 1372.0 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 11.0; the FG01 contract price dropped from 1270.0 to 1252.0, a daily decrease of 18.0 [2]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The FG 1 - 5 spread was - 120.0 on September 26th, with a weekly increase of 7.0 and a daily decrease of 7.0; the 01 Hebei basis was - 49.0 on September 26th, with a weekly increase of 24.0 and a daily increase of 23.0 [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's coal - fired profit increased from 291.6 on September 25th to 302.2 on September 26th, a daily increase of 10.6; North China's natural gas profit increased from - 159.3 to - 150.1, a daily increase of 9.2 [2]. - **Production - Sales Situation**: The production - sales rates in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China were 104, 108, 116, and 157 respectively [2]. Soda Ash - **Spot Price Changes**: From September 19th to September 26th, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1230.0 to 1200.0, a weekly decrease of 30.0 and a daily decrease of 20.0; North China's light soda price dropped from 1170.0 to 1120.0, a weekly decrease of 50.0 and a daily decrease of 10.0 [2]. - **Futures Contract Price Changes**: The SA05 contract price decreased from 1404.0 on September 25th to 1384.0 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 20.0; the SA01 contract price dropped from 1315.0 to 1293.0, a daily decrease of 22.0 [2]. - **Price Difference Changes**: The SA01 - SA05 spread was - 91.0 on September 26th, a weekly decrease of 2.0 and a daily decrease of 2.0; the SA01 Shahe basis was - 93.0 on September 26th, a weekly decrease of 5.0 and a daily increase of 2.0 [2]. - **Profit Changes**: North China's ammonia - soda process profit decreased from - 152.0 on September 25th to - 168.8 on September 26th, a daily decrease of 16.8; North China's combined - soda process profit dropped from - 175.0 to - 192.4, a daily decrease of 17.4 [2]. - **Inventory Situation**: Factory inventory decreased significantly, while delivery warehouses had a small increase, and overall inventory decreased [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, the fundamentals are not optimistic. Supply pressure and high inventory are the key factors suppressing prices, and there are no signs of a turnaround in the short term. The trading strategy is to short on rallies unilaterally and consider rolling to sell out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [3][67]. - For glass, the fundamentals are neutral. Policy and news have a significant impact on the FG2601 contract. The glass futures price in the fourth quarter may show a volatile trend, with the price center likely to be higher in the first half and lower in the second half. The trading strategy is to focus on band trading and consider selling deep out - of - the - money call options [4][68]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review Soda Ash - In Q1 2025, the soda ash price fluctuated, with a decline in the second half of December due to factory maintenance and a rebound later as enterprises resumed production. In February, the price first dropped and then rebounded. In March, the price fell despite improved fundamentals [6]. - In Q2 2025, the soda ash price showed a smooth downward trend due to increased supply and slower demand growth [7]. - In Q3 2025, the price first rose and then fell. In July, the price increased with the rise of coking coal futures. In August, supply reached a historical high and demand was weak, leading to a price drop. In September, the price fluctuated, and it was relatively firm before the National Day due to downstream restocking [7]. Glass - In Q1 2025, the glass futures price trended downward. In January, the futures were weak but the spot price rebounded. In February, the price continued to decline due to high inventory and slow recovery of processing enterprises. In March, the price first dropped to a low and then rebounded, but it couldn't be sustained [8][10]. - In Q2 2025, the glass futures price showed a smooth downward trend due to poor macro - environment and low real - estate demand. In June, the price rebounded due to the rise of coal prices [10]. - In Q3 2025, the price first rose under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy and then fell back. In September, the price rebounded with the arrival of the consumption peak season [10]. 3.2 Soda Ash Fundamental Analysis Price and Spread - In Q3 2025, the spot price of soda ash in various regions first rose and then fell, and the futures price also showed a similar trend. The spot price decline was greater than that of the futures, and the basis decreased by 150 yuan/ton compared to the end of June [13]. Profit, Production, and Capacity Utilization - By September 25, 2025, the ammonia - soda production profit was - 37.2 yuan/ton, and the combined - soda production profit was - 77.5 yuan/ton, both showing a decline compared to the end of June. However, the capacity utilization rate remained high, above 80% in Q3 and above 85% in September. The weekly production was mostly above 700,000 tons, and the monthly production in September increased compared to August [17]. Inventory - As of September 25, 2025, the soda ash enterprise inventory was 1.9515 million tons, a decrease of 115,400 tons compared to the end of June. The light - soda inventory was 729,100 tons, a decrease of 76,100 tons, and the heavy - soda inventory was 922,400 tons, a decrease of 39,300 tons. The heavy - soda inventory was digested faster after August due to the rebound of the photovoltaic glass market and the ignition of some float glass production lines [22]. Future Capacity Expansion Plan - In the first half of 2025, new capacities of Lianyungang Alkali Plant and Hubei Shuanghuan were put into production. In the second half, there are still 3.5 million tons of capacity to be put into operation, including the second - phase project of Yuanxing Energy, which was successfully ignited on September 19 and entered the commissioning stage [27]. Downstream Demand - **Float Glass**: In Q3 2025, the spot price of float glass in most regions rose, but it decreased in Guangdong. The futures price also rose and then fell. The production profit of glass enterprises improved. The daily melting volume increased to 160,200 tons, and the enterprise inventory decreased. However, the deep - processing enterprise operating rate declined, and the terminal real - estate demand remained weak [29][32][33]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: In Q3 2025, the photovoltaic glass price rebounded, and the daily melting volume reached 88,800 tons after a rebound. The enterprise inventory days decreased to 14.16 days. The domestic photovoltaic component installation volume and export volume showed different trends. The installation volume declined after May, and the export volume increased in August but is likely to decline after September [48][54]. - **Light - Soda Demand**: The demand for light soda is relatively stable. The PPI of glass products continued to decline, the production of synthetic detergents decreased, and the production of lithium carbonate increased steadily [60]. 3.3 Outlook and Trading Recommendations - For soda ash, the supply surplus problem may worsen in the fourth quarter. The trading strategy is to short on rallies unilaterally and consider rolling to sell out - of - the - money call options on near - term contracts [67]. - For glass, the daily melting volume may remain stable with possible short - term fluctuations. The trading strategy is to focus on band trading and consider selling deep out - of - the - money call options [68].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Report's Core Views Glass - Glass is in a state from weak balance to weak surplus. Without unexpected factors, it is expected to fluctuate at a low level. The supply side has uncertainties, including the impact of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and potential industrial policies. The cost may rise. Before facing delivery, the futures may be more likely to rise than fall. The high mid - stream inventory in Shahe and Hubei restricts its upward elasticity [1]. - The price range is estimated to be (1000, 1400). Without cold - repair, consider the 1 - 5 reverse spread opportunity [1]. 纯碱 - The market has repeatedly traded the fact and expectation of soda ash surplus. Without new factors intensifying the surplus and affecting the spot market, the futures may fluctuate with sentiment. High supply is expected, and the production capacity will increase with the output release of Yuangxing Phase II. Demand is expected to remain stable, with a 300 - 350 - million - ton capacity surplus in float glass and photovoltaic glass. Exports remain high. Policy and cost are uncertain factors. Without delivery pressure, soda ash may fluctuate around the marginal cost [1]. - The price range is estimated to be (1100, 1500). Use band - trading strategies and short on rallies without policy disturbances [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 2: Glass and Soda Ash Third - Quarter Market Review Glass - In Q3 2025, the glass price center moved up. In July, the price of the main 09 contract rose from 1060 yuan/ton to around 1450 yuan/ton, a rise of over 36%, driven by macro - policies and the "anti - involution" sentiment. In August, the market sentiment cooled, and the price declined due to delivery pressure and high mid - stream inventory. In September, the price fluctuated as the market lacked a clear trading theme [2][3]. Soda Ash - In Q3 2025, the soda ash price center moved up from 1100 - 1200 yuan/ton to 1300 - 1400 yuan/ton. In July, the main 09 contract rose to over 1450 yuan/ton, a rise of about 24%, driven by macro - policies and speculative demand. In August, the market returned to reality. Although supply and inventory pressure were high, the price was supported near delivery, showing anti - decline characteristics [7]. Chapter 3: Core Concerns of Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Monitor the mid - stream inventory depletion. High inventory in Shahe and Hubei needs to be digested by the end - market in the peak season; otherwise, the price may decline. Hubei's situation is crucial for pricing [19]. - Pay attention to the realization of cost - increase expectations. There are policy pressures for coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe this quarter and in Hubei by the end of 2026. Coal prices may also be affected by policies [21]. - Track whether the supply side can continue to clear. The current daily melting volume is relatively low, and marginal changes in supply will affect the price [22]. Soda Ash - Watch for "policy - related stories" on the supply side. Policy - driven production cuts may change the supply - demand balance, and unexpected supply reduction may lead to significant price elasticity [22][23]. - Focus on the cost - increase expectations of coal and raw salt prices. Coal accounts for 35% - 40% of the cost, and raw salt prices may rise [24]. Chapter 4: Glass Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook Glass Supply - As of the end of September 2025, the float glass daily melting volume was around 16.1 - 16.2 million tons, slightly higher than expected. Some production lines may resume production in Q4, but there is no cold - repair expectation. Policy - related coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and Hubei may affect supply and cost [25][26]. Glass Valuation - Gas - fired production lines are in a loss, while coal - fired and petroleum - coke - fired production lines are profitable. There is a policy trend for coal - and petroleum - coke - fired lines to switch to gas, which will increase costs. Glass is in a low - valuation state, and its price increase may lead to over - supply due to increased production expectations [30][31]. Glass Demand - From January to August 2025, real - estate data was weak, which restricted glass demand. From January to September 2025, glass apparent demand declined by 6.5% - 7.0%. Although Q3 was better than Q2, high mid - stream inventory limited the upward elasticity of glass prices. Seasonally, Q4 demand may improve, but mid - stream inventory depletion needs to be observed [34]. Glass Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook - Based on the average daily apparent demand in Q3, glass is in a basic balance in Q4. The annual supply and demand growth rates are - 6.3% and - 7% respectively. Marginal changes in supply or demand will determine price elasticity [48]. Chapter 5: Soda Ash Valuation Feedback and Supply - Demand Outlook Long - term Supply Pressure - In H1 2025, soda ash production capacity increased from 38.9 million tons to 41.1 million tons. Yuangxing Phase II with 2.8 - million - ton capacity was ignited in mid - September. High supply is expected in Q4, and the daily output may be above 105,000 tons [51][56]. Valuation Disputes vs. Cost Increase - In Q3, coal and raw salt prices increased, driving up soda ash costs by 80 - 90 yuan/ton. Different production processes and regions have different costs. Market valuation is affected by the difficulty of marginal production capacity exit and cost - increase expectations [61][62]. Soda Ash Demand and Export - Float glass and photovoltaic glass are the main demand sources for soda ash. Float glass production may decline by 6% - 6.5%, and photovoltaic glass by 9% - 10%, dragging down soda ash demand by 4 - 5 percentage points. From January to August 2025, soda ash net exports were nearly 1.35 million tons, and monthly exports are expected to remain at 160,000 - 200,000 tons [72]. Soda Ash Surplus and High Inventory - Soda ash inventory is at a high level, and the market consensus is surplus. In Q4, demand may improve slightly, but supply will remain high, and the surplus situation is difficult to reverse [85]. Soda Ash Supply - Demand Balance and Outlook - In Q4, soda ash production is expected to remain high, with an annual growth rate of 2.5% - 3%. Demand will be stable, and exports will remain high. The supply - demand balance will remain in surplus, with an average daily surplus of about 10,000 tons [94].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core contradictions affecting the trends of glass and soda ash include supply contraction expectations and the current weak balance state of glass and high - production and high - inventory situation of soda ash. The trading logic lies in expectations that are difficult to be falsified in the short term [1]. - In the short term, glass is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and soda ash follows. The情绪 for glass has not fully released [6]. - The demand for glass is currently weak with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches, and the demand for soda ash remains stable [54][66]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Supply contraction expectations: There may be industrial policies. For glass, there are disturbances such as coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe, and there is an expectation of petroleum coke - to - gas conversion next year, which implies cost increase. Soda ash has no clear indication and its price fluctuates with glass or market sentiment [1]. - In reality, glass is in a weak balance with high middle - stream inventories, and without real production cuts, the upward price elasticity is limited. Soda ash has high production and high inventories, with strong upward pressure, but the price is supported by expectations [1]. - Near - term trading logic: Glass has general real - world demand but some speculative demand, and the middle - stream still has "water - storage capacity". Soda ash follows coal prices and glass, but is suppressed by high near - term inventories and production, while upstream soda ash plants currently have limited pressure due to downstream replenishment at low prices [2]. - Long - term trading expectations: There are expectations of cost increase, mainly from coal prices, and whether the supply contraction expectations will be fulfilled, mainly related to industrial policies. When the expectations cannot be falsified, the futures market may be prone to rise and difficult to fall [3]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - Trend judgment: In the short term, glass is prone to rise and difficult to fall, and soda ash follows [6]. - Month - spread strategy: Without substantial cold - repair or production cuts in glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread [6]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: Consider going long on glass and short on soda ash [6]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Recommendations - Price range prediction: The price range of glass is predicted to be 1000 - 1400, and that of soda ash is 1100 - 1500 [6]. - Hedging strategies: Different hedging strategies are recommended for glass and soda ash in terms of inventory management and procurement management, including futures trading and option trading [6]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - Glass spot prices: The average price of glass in Shahe decreased slightly, and prices in different regions showed different trends [8]. - Glass futures prices and month - spreads: The prices of glass futures contracts decreased, and the month - spreads changed [9]. - Soda ash spot prices: The prices of soda ash in different regions remained stable [11]. - Soda ash futures prices and month - spreads: The prices of soda ash futures contracts decreased, and the month - spreads changed [12]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - Bullish information: There were rumors of a glass industry symposium, and relevant departments issued a work plan for the building materials industry. The upstream inventories of glass and soda ash decreased, with glass inventory (factory warehouse) down 2.55% week - on - week and 18.56% year - on - year, and soda ash factory inventory down 10.41 tons week - on - week [13]. - Bearish information: The inventory of Shahe's spot - futures reached a new high this year, and the soda ash delivery warehouse inventory increased, with the total inventory of factory and delivery warehouses at an absolute high [14]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Whether there are further clear instructions on industrial policies [16]. - The downstream transmission situation after the spot price increase [16]. - Track daily production and sales [16]. Chapter 3: Futures Market Interpretation - Unilateral trends and capital movements: The main contracts of glass and soda ash maintained a position of over one million hands, in line with the seasonality. The price difference between the two narrowed, and neither showed a good trend. Glass once rose due to supply contraction expectations and spot price increases, but then declined as the sentiment subsided [16]. - Basis and month - spread structure: Glass generally maintains a C - structure, and the 1 - 5 reverse spread idea is maintained in logic. Soda ash also maintains a C - structure, with limited short - term month - spread opportunities [31][33]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - Glass: The theoretical cost changes little. Natural gas production lines are in loss, while petroleum coke and coal - gas production lines still have profits. Glass factories have limited willingness to cold - repair at current prices [38]. - Soda ash: The cash - flow cost of the ammonia - soda process in Shandong is around 1170 yuan/ton, and the full cost is 1300 - 1320 yuan/ton. The full cost of the combined - soda process (mainly in Central China) is 1200 yuan/ton. There are still profits in the soda ash industrial chain at current prices [38]. 4.2 Import and Export Analysis - Glass: The monthly average net export of float glass is 5 - 7 tons, accounting for 1.2% - 1.3% of the apparent demand, with limited impact [45]. - Soda ash: The monthly average net export of soda ash is 16 tons, accounting for 5.6% of the apparent demand, and the export in August was slightly higher than expected, maintaining high expectations [45]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Supply - Side and Projections - Glass supply: The daily melting of glass has slightly increased, and there may be ignition plans for some production lines in the fourth quarter. Attention should be paid to the impact of coal - to - gas conversion in Shahe and industrial policies on glass production capacity [49]. - Soda ash supply: The production of soda ash fluctuates slightly with planned maintenance, and high supply is maintained [52]. 5.2 Demand - Side and Projections - Glass demand: This week, the spot price increase improved the shipment, but the overall demand is weak with high inventories in the upper and middle reaches [54]. - Soda ash demand: The daily melting of float and photovoltaic glass is stable, and the rigid demand for soda ash remains stable. The fundamentals of photovoltaic glass have improved significantly [66]. 5.3 Inventory Analysis - Glass: The factory inventory of glass decreased, but the middle - stream inventories in Shahe and Hubei are at a high level [75]. - Soda ash: The factory inventory of soda ash decreased, and the inventory in the delivery warehouse increased. The total inventory decreased, and the pressure on soda ash plants continued to ease [76].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating weakly [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The glass market is affected by speculative demand and downstream restocking, with slight inventory reduction but limited overall changes. The glass price is volatile due to macro policies, while the fundamentals still suppress the price. Attention should be paid to macro policies and peak-season demand [1]. - The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash persists. With the ignition of Yuanxing Phase II, the supply pressure will increase. Focus on whether the speculative demand for soda ash weakens, and monitor new capacity production progress and inventory changes [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Price and Spread - This week, the glass main contract 2601 oscillated strongly, closing at 1,252 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 2.88% increase. The weekly average price of the domestic float glass market was 1,178 yuan/ton, a 14.9 - yuan/ton increase from the previous week [1][5]. - This week, the soda ash main contract 2601 oscillated and consolidated, closing at 1,293 yuan/ton on Friday, with a 1.93% decrease. The downstream demand for soda ash was stable, mainly for pre - holiday rigid restocking [1][5]. Supply - This week, the float glass output was 1.1242 million tons, a 0.27% increase from the previous week. The enterprise operating rate was 76.01%, unchanged from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a 0.25% increase from the previous week [1][17]. - This week, the soda ash capacity utilization rate was 89.12%, a 3.59% increase from the previous week; the output was 776,900 tons, a 4.19% increase from the previous week [2][17]. Demand - This week, the glass trading sentiment was boosted by macro policies. The futures and spot markets resonated, with downstream prices rising and purchasing enthusiasm increasing. There was pre - holiday rigid restocking, and the production - sales ratio improved [1][19]. - This week, the downstream of soda ash mainly engaged in pre - holiday rigid restocking. The photovoltaic glass and float glass operations were stable, with no obvious changes in production lines [2][19]. Inventory - This week, the total inventory of the national float glass sample enterprises was 59.355 million heavy boxes, a 2.55% decrease from the previous week, indicating inventory reduction [1][23]. - This week, the inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.6515 million tons, a 5.93% decrease from the previous week, showing inventory reduction [2][23].