玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/10/24 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/16 2025/10/22 2025/10/23 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/16 2025/10/22 2025/10/23 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1181.0 | 1143.0 | 1130.0 | -51.0 | -13.0 | FG05合约 | 1284.0 | 1241.0 | 1256.0 | -28.0 | 15.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1160.0 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | -47.0 | 0.0 | FG01合约 | 1147.0 | 1094.0 | 1108.0 | -39.0 | 14.0 | | 5mm大 ...

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/10/15 2025/10/21 2025/10/22 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/10/15 2025/10/21 2025/10/22 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1160.0 | 1150.0 | 1160.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | SA05合 约 | 1319.0 | 1298.0 | 1308.0 | -11.0 | 10.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1170.0 | 1170.0 | 1180.0 | 10.0 | 10.0 | SA01合约 | 1232.0 | 1210.0 | 1223.0 | -9.0 | 13.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1384.0 | 1361.0 | 1370.0 | -14.0 | 9.0 ...

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - If there is no real production cut, the end - point of the 01 - contract for glass and soda ash is downward due to the existing structural contradictions. In reality, near - term glass data is poor with high intermediate inventory, and soda ash has a pattern of high production and high inventory with obvious oversupply. However, there is an expectation of cost increase for both glass and soda ash in the long run [2] - Without substantial cold - repair or production cut of glass, continue to focus on the 1 - 5 reverse spread; it is recommended to exit and wait for the single - side short positions [5] Group 3: Price Forecasts - The monthly price range forecast for glass is 1000 - 1300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 33.65% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 85.5%. For soda ash, the monthly price range forecast is 1100 - 1400, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 21.66% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 22.9% [1] Group 4: Hedging Strategies Glass - **Inventory Management**: When glass inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell FG2601 futures at 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601C1300 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - **Procurement Management**: When glass inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy FG2601 futures at 1050 - 1100 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell FG601P1060 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1] Soda Ash - **Inventory Management**: When soda ash inventory is high and there are concerns about price drops, sell SA2601 futures at 1550 - 1600 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601C1400 call options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in profits and reduce costs [1] - **Procurement Management**: When soda ash inventory is low and procurement is based on orders, buy SA2601 futures at 1200 - 1250 with a 50% hedging ratio and sell SA601P1200 put options at 40 - 50 with a 50% ratio to lock in procurement costs [1] Group 5: Market Data Glass - On 2025/10/22, the glass 05 contract was 1241 (up 5 or 0.4% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1330 (up 8 or 0.61%), and the 01 contract was 1094 (up 7 or 0.64%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 89 (down 3), the 9 - 1 spread was 236 (up 1), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 147 (up 2). The 01 - contract basis in Shahe was 33 (down 9), and in Hubei was - 14 (down 7). The 05 - contract basis in Shahe was - 114 (down 7), and in Hubei was - 161 (down 5) [6] - The average spot price of glass in Shahe on 2025/10/22 was 1127 (down 2 from the previous day). Regional prices in North China were 1140 (down 20), in Northeast China were 1120 (down 30), and in Jiangsu were 1280 (down 20) [7] Soda Ash - On 2025/10/22, the soda ash 05 contract was 1308 (up 10 or 0.77% from the previous day), the 09 contract was 1370 (up 9 or 0.66%), and the 01 contract was 1223 (up 13 or 1.07%). The 5 - 9 spread was - 62 (up 1, - 1.59% change), the 9 - 1 spread was 147 (down 4, - 2.65% change), and the 1 - 5 spread was - 85 (up 3, - 3.41% change). The Shahe heavy - base basis was - 73 (down 13), and the Qinghai heavy - base basis was - 273 (down 13) [7] - The heavy - alkali market price in Shahe on 2025/10/22 was 1173 (up 23 from the previous day). The price differences between heavy and light alkali in different regions were stable [8][9] Group 6: Influencing Factors Bullish Factors - There is an expectation of cost increase for glass and soda ash (fuel & raw materials), which affects the pricing of far - month contracts [4] - The expectation of industrial policies cannot be completely excluded and may be repeatedly traded [4] Bearish Factors - High inventories in the upstream and mid - stream of glass and soda ash, and doubts about downstream acceptance, resulting in a lackluster peak season [4] - There are supply pressures. Glass production lines have ignition expectations, and soda ash has future production - capacity expansion pressure [4] - The glass spot market is weak, with price cuts and poor production - sales ratios [5]

玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/10/22 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/14 2025/10/20 2025/10/21 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/14 2025/10/20 2025/10/21 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 5mm大 板 | 1181.0 | 1151.0 | 1143.0 | -38.0 | -8.0 | FG05合约 | 1280.0 | 1231.0 | 1236.0 | -44.0 | 5.0 | | 沙河长城 | 1164.0 | 1126.0 | 1113.0 | -51.0 | -13.0 | FG01合约 | 1138.0 | 1091.0 | 1087.0 | -51.0 | -4.0 | | 5mm大 ...

1. Glass and Soda Ash Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Soda ash continues to weaken, with inventory piling up in factories and mid - stream delivery warehouses. The supply is in excess compared to current demand, and without actual capacity exit or load reduction, the supply - demand situation will be further pressured. Adopt a short - selling strategy on rebounds [1]. - Glass manufacturers' sales have improved, but the deep - processing orders are still weak. In the long - term, the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply problem. Pay attention to spot purchasing rhythm, high - frequency data changes, and macro - level drivers [1]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Glass prices in North China, East China, Central China, and South China decreased, with drops ranging from 0.85% to 3.28%. Soda ash prices in most regions remained stable. Glass futures prices were mostly flat or slightly down, while soda ash futures prices rose slightly [1]. - **Supply**: Soda ash production rate increased by 3.37% to 88.41%, and weekly output increased by 3.37% to 77.08 million tons. Float glass daily melting volume increased by 1.16% to 16.13 million tons, and PV daily melting volume remained unchanged [1]. - **Inventory**: Glass factory inventory increased by 5.84% to 6282.40 ten - thousand heavy boxes, and soda ash factory inventory increased by 3.74% to 165.98 million tons [1]. 2. Industrial Silicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Industrial silicon spot prices are stable, and futures prices first rose on news of a company's production cut and then fell back. In October, supply increased significantly, with a risk of inventory accumulation and price pressure. However, considering cost factors and the approaching dry season, prices may move up. The price is expected to fluctuate at a low level, mainly in the range of 8000 - 9500 yuan/ton. Consider buying at low prices if the 11 - contract price drops to 8000 - 8300 yuan/ton [2]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Spot prices of most industrial silicon varieties remained unchanged, and basis differences decreased. Some monthly spreads changed significantly, such as the 2510 - 2511 spread dropping by 97.30% [2]. - **Fundamentals**: National industrial silicon production increased by 9.10% to 42.08 million tons, and Xinjiang's production increased by 19.78% to 20.32 million tons. Organic silicon DMC production decreased by 5.78%, and polysilicon production decreased by 1.29%. Recycled aluminum alloy production increased by 7.48%, and industrial silicon exports decreased by 8.36% [2]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory increased by 3.12% to 56.20 million tons, and non - warehouse receipt inventory increased by 7.15% to 31.55 million tons [2]. 3. Polysilicon Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - Polysilicon futures prices fell after opening on Monday, possibly due to some funds taking profits. The continuous increase in polysilicon warehouse receipts pressured the November contract price. There is a risk of inventory accumulation due to increased supply. Whether the increased production can be digested by demand in the fourth - quarter peak - installation season will significantly affect prices. The price is mainly in a high - level oscillation. Pay attention to policy implementation, production control, and demand - side orders. The supply in Southwest China will decrease during the dry season, which will support prices. Guard against the risk of inventory accumulation if demand is lower than expected [4]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The average price of most polysilicon and related products remained stable. The main contract price of futures decreased by 3.82% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: Weekly silicon wafer production increased by 11.85% to 14.35 GM, and monthly polysilicon production decreased by 1.29% to 13.00 million tons. Polysilicon imports increased by 28.46%, and exports decreased by 28.16% [4]. - **Inventory**: Polysilicon inventory increased by 5.42% to 25.30 million tons, and silicon wafer inventory increased by 3.16% to 17.31 GM [4]. 4. Logs Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - The log futures market fluctuated. The 01 contract is relatively strong. With the increase in foreign quotes and port fees, there is strong cost support. During the seasonal peak season, the futures price has certain support at the bottom. The 01 contract may be treated as bullish [5]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: Log futures prices of different contracts decreased slightly. Spot prices of most log varieties remained unchanged [5]. - **Supply**: Monthly port shipments increased by 6.00% to 176.6 million cubic meters, and the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea increased by 4.55% [5]. - **Inventory**: National log inventory decreased by 2.34% to 292.00 million cubic meters, and the average daily log出库 volume increased by 10% to 6.32 million cubic meters [5]. 5. Natural Rubber Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided. Core View - In the short - term, the rebound in raw material prices supports rubber prices, but the expected improvement in weather in northeastern Thailand may lead to a decline in raw material prices. Demand has not improved significantly, and some enterprises are still adjusting production flexibly to control inventory. In the short - term, rubber prices may follow the macro - led market. If raw material supply is smooth, prices may decline further; if not, prices are expected to be around 15000 - 15500 yuan/ton [7]. Summary by Directory - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of Yunnan state - owned whole - latex increased by 0.35%, and the price of Thai standard mixed rubber increased by 0.69%. Some month - to - month spreads changed significantly [7]. - **Fundamentals**: Production in Thailand, Indonesia, and India in August showed different trends. Tire production and import of natural rubber increased, while tire exports decreased [7]. - **Inventory**: Bonded area inventory decreased by 4.07% to 43483 tons, and natural rubber factory - warehouse futures inventory on the SHFE decreased by 2.93% to 40119 tons [7].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is operating steadily with a slight downward trend in some regions, as demand remains weak and market participants exhibit cautious purchasing behavior [2]. Price Summary - Light soda ash prices in East China are maintained at 1130-1600 CNY/ton, while heavy soda ash prices are at 1250-1320 CNY/ton [2]. - In Central China, light soda ash prices range from 1110-1320 CNY/ton, and heavy soda ash prices are between 1240-1350 CNY/ton [2]. - The price indices for light and heavy soda ash on October 20 are 1160 and 1211.43 respectively, remaining unchanged from the previous working day [3]. Market Dynamics - The soda ash futures market showed a slight fluctuation, with the main contract SA2601 opening at 1214 CNY/ton and closing at 1219 CNY/ton, reflecting a daily change of 0.00% [5]. - The industry is characterized by a strong supply and weak demand situation, with high operating rates and accumulating inventories, leading to significant de-stocking pressure [5]. - The downstream glass market continues to decline, contributing to weak support for soda ash prices [5]. Future Outlook - The soda ash market is expected to continue its weak performance in the short term, with a gradual recovery in operating rates as previously shut-down facilities restart [6]. - Demand remains soft, with limited new orders and cautious purchasing intentions from downstream enterprises [6]. - If inventory pressures persist, manufacturers may implement discount measures to stimulate sales [6].

| | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 2025/10/13 2025/10/17 2025/10/20 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/10/13 2025/10/17 2025/10/20 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河重碱 | 1180.0 | 1150.0 | 1160.0 | -20.0 | 10.0 | SA05合 约 | 1336.0 | 1294.0 | 1304.0 | -32.0 | 10.0 | | 华中重碱 | 1190.0 | 1150.0 | 1160.0 | -30.0 | 10.0 | SA01合约 | 1247.0 | 1209.0 | 1219.0 | -28.0 | 10.0 | | 华南重碱 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 1350.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | SA09合约 | 1406.0 | 1360.0 | 1365.0 | -41.0 | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For soda ash, supply is expected to be ample, demand to decline, and prices to have limited upside potential. However, if there is an interest - rate cut expectation, prices may rebound slightly. It is recommended to buy soda ash futures contracts on dips in the short - term [2]. - For glass, it is expected to stop falling and stabilize. If the central bank cuts interest rates, it will support real - estate demand; otherwise, real - estate may continue to drag down glass demand. It is recommended to buy glass futures contracts on dips in the short - term [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash主力合约收盘价is 1219 yuan/ton (up 10), glass主力合约收盘价is 1091 yuan/ton (down 4), and the price difference between soda ash and glass is 128 yuan/ton (up 14) [2]. - Soda ash主力合约持仓量is 1369450 lots (down 36196), glass主力合约持仓量is 1624204 lots (up 65583) [2]. - Soda ash前20名净持仓is - 267165 (up 2374), glass前20名净持仓is - 196704 (up 40447) [2]. - Soda ash交易所仓单is 10773 tons (up 1490), glass交易所仓单is 455 tons (unchanged) [2]. - Soda ash基差is - 73 yuan/ton (down 1), glass基差is - 19 yuan/ton (down 12) [2]. - The price difference between January and May glass contracts is - 140 (down 4), and that of soda ash contracts is - 85 (unchanged) [2]. Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash price is 1162 yuan/ton (up 2), Central China heavy soda ash price is 1300 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - East China light soda ash price is 1250 yuan/ton (unchanged), Central China light soda ash price is 1145 yuan/ton (unchanged) [2]. - Shahe glass price is 1112 yuan/ton (down 4), Central China glass price is 1180 yuan/ton (down 20) [2]. Industry Situation - Soda ash装置开工率is 84.93% (down 3.48), float glass企业开工率is 76.35% (up 0.34) [2]. - Glass在产产能is 16.12 million tons/year (up 0.05), glass在产生产线条数is 226 (up 1) [2]. - Soda ash企业库存is 171.07 million tons (up 1.02), glass企业库存is 6427.6 million heavy boxes (up 145.2) [2]. Downstream Situation - Real - estate新开工面积累计值is 39801.01 million square meters (up 4595.01), real - estate竣工面积累计值is 27693.54 million square meters (up 2659.54) [2]. Industry News - Hunan Lengshuijiang Jinfuyuan's soda ash plant is shut down, with a light soda ash quote of 1400 yuan/ton [2]. - Jiangsu Kunshan Jingang's soda ash plant is operating normally, with a light soda ash ex - factory quote of 1200 - 1250 yuan/ton [2]. - Hubei Shuanghuan's soda ash plant has restarted and is in the production - increasing stage, with a light soda ash quote of 1160 yuan/ton [2]. - Henan Haohua Junhua's soda ash plant is operating stably with stable prices [2]. - Inner Mongolia Boyuan Yingen Chemical's 5 million tons/year soda ash plant is operating normally [2]. - Tangshan Sanyou's 2.3 million tons/year soda ash plant is operating at a reduced capacity of about 70% [2]. - Shandong Haitian Biological Chemical's 1.5 million tons/year soda ash plant has resumed production [2].

玻璃纯碱早报 研究中心能化团队 | | | | | | | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | 2025/10/20 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/10/10 2025/10/16 2025/10/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | | | 2025/10/10 2025/10/16 2025/10/17 周度变化 日度变化 | | | | 沙河安全 | 1241.0 | 1181.0 | 1173.0 | -68.0 | -8.0 | FG05合约 | 1334.0 | 1284.0 | 1231.0 | -103.0 | -53.0 | | 5mm大 板 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 沙河长城 | 1198.0 | 1160.0 | 1156.0 | -42.0 | -4.0 | FG01合约 | 1207.0 | 1147.0 | 1095.0 | -112.0 | - ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Glass: Oscillating weakly [3] - Soda Ash: Oscillating [3] - Cross - variety: None [3] - Cross - period: None [3] 2. Core Viewpoints - Glass: This week, the glass mid - and downstream demand weakened further, with both volume and price dropping, and the de - stocking pressure increased. As the consumption peak season is about to end and some production lines still have the expectation of resuming production, the glass price is expected to continue to run weakly [1]. - Soda Ash: The supply - demand contradiction of soda ash remains. There is still an expectation of further increase in high - level supply, the demand side has resilience, and the de - stocking pressure persists throughout the year. Soda ash maintains a weak operation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents Price and Spread - Glass: The closing price of the glass main contract 2601 was 1095 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 112 yuan/ton, or a decline of 9.28%. The domestic float glass market price was 1246 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 14 yuan/ton [1][5]. - Soda Ash: The closing price of the soda ash main contract 2601 was 1209 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 31 yuan/ton, or a decline of 2.5% [1][5]. Supply - Glass: The float glass enterprise operating rate was 76.35%, a week - on - week increase of 0.34%, and the capacity utilization rate was 80.63%, remaining flat week - on - week [1][25]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash capacity utilization rate was 84.93%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.48%; the output was 74.05 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.93% [2][25]. Demand - Glass: After the festival, the real estate demand continued to be weak, the deep - processing rigid demand of glass decreased week - on - week, the inventory of middle - stream traders was high, and the speculative demand also weakened [1][27]. - Soda Ash: The demand was relatively stable [27]. Inventory - Glass: The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 64.276 million heavy boxes, a week - on - week increase of 2.31%, with obvious inventory accumulation [1][30]. - Soda Ash: The inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 170.05 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.45%, with obvious inventory accumulation [2][30].