1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report offers short - term outlooks for various commodities, suggesting that most commodities are in a state of shock, with some showing specific trends such as pressure or potential rebounds [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: The expectation of interest rate cuts has risen, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It is in a state of shock adjustment, with a trend strength of 0 [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: There is a lack of clear drivers, and prices are in a shock state, with a trend strength of 0 [2][9]. - **Zinc**: LME inventories are accumulating, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12]. - **Lead**: Reduced inventories limit price declines, with a trend strength of 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: Prices have fallen from high levels, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18]. - **Aluminum**: It is in a range - bound shock, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina continues to face pressure, with a trend strength of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum [2][23]. - **Nickel**: Nickel prices have broken through support and are under pressure, with a trend strength of 0; Stainless steel is suppressed by weak reality, with a trend strength of 0 [2][26][27]. Energy Metals - **Lithium Carbonate**: There are limited fundamental changes, and market sentiment changes should be monitored, with a trend strength of 0 [2][32]. Industrial Metals - **Industrial Silicon**: The strategy is to short at high prices, with a trend strength of - 1; Polysilicon: Attention should be paid to when long - short arbitrage funds leave the market, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][36]. Ferrous Metals - **Iron Ore**: Downstream demand space is limited, and the valuation is high, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][39]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][42]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][46]. - **Coke and Coking Coal**: Both are in a wide - range shock state, with a trend strength of 0 for both [2][49]. Forestry Products - **Log**: It is in a repeated shock state, with a trend strength not mentioned [2][51]. Chemicals - **Para - Xylene**: Supply contraction squeezes downstream profits [2][28]. - **PTA**: It is in a single - sided shock market, and chasing high prices is not recommended [2][28]. - **MEG**: New device production leads to continued inventory accumulation, and supply pressure remains [2][28]. - **Rubber**: It is in a shock state [2][30]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: It has support during the shock [2][32]. - **Asphalt**: It is in a narrow - range shock [2][34]. - **PP**: Do not short in the short term, but there is still pressure in the medium - term trend [2][36]. - **Caustic Soda**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][37]. - **Pulp**: It is in a shock state [2][38]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][40]. - **Methanol**: It is in a weak shock state, and the downward space is narrowing [2][41]. - **Urea**: It has support in the short - term shock [2][43]. - **Styrene**: Attention should be paid to the increase in ethylbenzene, and it is in a short - term shock [2][45]. - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [2][46]. - **LPG**: Supply - demand expectations are tightening, and it is relatively resistant to decline in the short term [2][47]. - **Propylene**: Spot prices are strong, and the futures market is in a bottom - range shock [2][47]. - **PVC**: There is still pressure in the trend [2][50]. - **Fuel Oil**: Night - session prices continued to correct, and it is still weaker than low - sulfur fuel oil [2][51]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The weakness continues, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur fuels in the overseas spot market remains at a high level [2][51]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The rebound height is limited, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction process in the producing areas [2][59]. - **Soybean Oil**: There is no driving force for a breakthrough, and it is mainly in a range - bound shock [2][59]. - **Soybean Meal**: It is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Soybean No. 1**: The spot price is stable, and the futures market is in an adjustment shock [2][61]. - **Corn**: It is in a shock state [2][63]. - **Sugar**: It is in a weak state [2][65]. - **Cotton**: Futures prices maintain a shock trend [2][66]. - **Eggs**: The near - term is weak, and the far - term is strong, showing a reverse arbitrage pattern [2][68]. - **Pigs**: The cooling expectation has been realized, and the pressure is gradually being released [2][69]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to the actions of oil mills [2][70].

Market Overview - The three major indices experienced a rebound after three consecutive declines, with the Shanghai Composite Index and ChiNext Index slightly rising, while the Shenzhen Component Index remained flat. The total trading volume in the two markets was 1.73 trillion yuan, a decrease from the previous period, with nearly 4,200 stocks declining [1]. ETF Performance - The leading non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) saw an intraday increase of 3.27%, closing with a gain of 2.48%. The chemical ETF (516020) also rose by over 1%. The non-ferrous metal sector led the market, attracting significant capital inflow, with the leading non-ferrous metal ETF accumulating 1.96 billion yuan over three days [3][4]. - The largest bank ETF (512800) rose nearly 1%, recovering above all moving averages, indicating a strong medium to long-term trend [8][10]. Sector Highlights - The non-ferrous metal sector attracted over 8.2 billion yuan in net inflow, making it the top sector in terms of capital absorption among 31 primary industries. Key stocks in this sector, such as Zhongjin Gold and Tianqi Lithium, saw significant price increases, with Zhongjin Gold rising over 8% [6][7]. - The banking sector showed strong performance, with China Bank surging 3.81%, marking its largest single-day gain in a year and reaching a historical high. Other banks like Everbright Bank and Ping An Bank also saw gains of nearly 2% [8][9]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current market environment favors a "barbell strategy," balancing value and growth styles to capture excess returns in advantageous sectors. The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to perform well due to rising demand and supply constraints, with projections indicating a potential bull market in 2026 [3][7][12]. - The banking sector is benefiting from low valuations and high dividend yields, which are becoming increasingly attractive amid year-end risk aversion. The upcoming mid-term dividend distributions from banks are expected to further enhance their appeal to investors [11][13].

Core Viewpoint - The non-ferrous metal sector is leading the market with a net inflow of over 8.2 billion yuan, indicating strong investor interest and confidence in the sector's future performance [1][2]. Group 1: Non-Ferrous Metal Sector Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has attracted significant capital, ranking first among 31 primary industries in terms of capital inflow [1]. - The Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF (159876) showed strong activity, with an intraday increase of 3.27% and a closing rise of 2.48%, with a total trading volume of 39.9 million yuan [1]. - Over the past three days, the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF has accumulated a total of 196 million yuan, reflecting bullish sentiment from large investors [1]. Group 2: Key Stocks Performance - Major gold stocks led the gains, with Zhongjin Gold rising by 8.76%, Chifeng Gold by 7.00%, and Shandong Gold by 5.98% [3]. - Lithium sector leaders also performed well, with Tianqi Lithium increasing by over 6%, and Ganfeng Lithium and Tibet Mining both rising by more than 3% [3]. Group 3: Market Outlook - In the gold market, the Shanghai gold futures contract surged over 1%, approaching 940 yuan per gram, with potential for gold prices to exceed 5,000 USD per ounce next year [1][2]. - In the lithium market, lithium carbonate futures broke through the 100,000 yuan mark, with predictions of prices potentially reaching 150,000 to 200,000 yuan per ton by 2026 due to demand growth [2]. - The outlook for basic metals like copper, aluminum, and tin is optimistic, with expectations of a strong performance in 2026 driven by emerging demands in AI, energy, and high-end manufacturing [2]. Group 4: Investment Strategy - A diversified investment approach through the Non-Ferrous Metal Leader ETF and its associated funds is recommended to capture the overall sector's performance while mitigating risks associated with individual metal investments [4].

据悉，今年7月，中国碳酸锂价格曾受益于"反内卷"行情并迎来一波上涨，此后行情逐渐降温。而自10月 中旬以来，碳酸锂价格上涨行情再度启动，中国碳酸锂期货主力合约自低点71000元/吨左右上涨超过 40%。 智通财经APP获悉，受益于碳酸锂价格复苏，锂业巨头智利矿业化工(SQM.US)在2025年第三季度实现了 盈利增长。财报显示，智利矿业化工Q3营收为11.73亿美元，较上年同期的10.77亿美元增长8.9%。毛利 润为3.46亿美元，较上年同期的2.81亿美元增长23.1%。调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为4.04亿 美元，较上年同期的3.27亿美元增长23.5%。净利润为1.78亿美元，较上年同期的1.31亿美元增长35.8%。 | | | | For the nine months ended | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | For the 3rd quarter | | September 30, | | | (US$ millions) | 2025 | 2024 | 2025 | 2024 | | Profit for the Period ...

Core Viewpoint - Since mid-October, lithium carbonate prices have experienced a significant upward trend, with a cumulative increase of nearly 30% [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - By 2025, global lithium carbonate demand is projected to reach approximately 1.45 million tons, but due to increased demand in the second half of the year, the forecast has been updated to 1.55 million tons, with supply capacity around 1.7 million tons, indicating a surplus of about 200,000 tons [1] - In 2026, lithium carbonate demand is expected to grow by 30%, reaching 1.9 million tons, while supply capacity is anticipated to increase by around 250,000 tons, leading to a near balance in supply and demand [1] - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, short-term supply may not keep pace, causing prices to potentially exceed 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton [1] Price Dynamics - The high prices of lithium carbonate may suppress downstream purchasing willingness, particularly as the price of hexafluorophosphate lithium has surged over 200% in four months, impacting the profitability of downstream companies [2] - Current price dynamics show a linkage effect within the industry chain, with rising prices of hexafluorophosphate lithium and lithium carbonate driving each other [2] - The recovery of lithium prices has led to an increase in lithium salt exports from Chile and Australia, which may help alleviate domestic lithium resource shortages [2] Production and Inventory Insights - In September, lithium carbonate imports decreased by 10.3% to 19,596.9 tons, while exports plummeted by 59.12% to 150.816 tons; domestic production in October was 51,530 tons, reflecting a 9.31% increase, but the operating rate fell by 5 percentage points to 43%, indicating constraints in domestic capacity release [3] - By the end of December, supply tightness is expected to support the rise in lithium carbonate prices [4] Long-term Price Outlook - In the medium to long term, lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate between 70,000 yuan/ton and 100,000 yuan/ton, with 70,000 yuan/ton having clear cost and demand support, while 100,000 yuan/ton corresponds to the price level for the resumption of Australian mines [5] - From 2025 to 2030, the global lithium carbonate market is likely to maintain a surplus, with the supply surplus expected to narrow from 2025 to 2026 [5] - The global energy storage market is anticipated to become a new demand driver from 2025 to 2027, alongside steady growth in the power market [5] Key Demand Drivers - The sustainability of energy storage demand in 2026 will be crucial for influencing the prices of lithium carbonate and other raw materials [6] - The primary growth regions for the global energy storage market will remain in China, the United States, and Europe, with emerging regions like the Middle East, Australia, and Southeast Asia also expected to increase storage demand [6] - Global energy storage demand is projected to grow by approximately 63% year-on-year in 2025, with a potential slowdown to a 15% increase in 2026, and a compound annual growth rate of around 15% from 2026 to 2030 [6]

Group 1 - The lithium carbonate market is experiencing a new surge driven by demand, contrasting with previous price increases that were primarily supply-driven [2] - As of November 17, lithium carbonate main contract prices have surpassed 90,000 yuan/ton, with a maximum intraday increase of 8.5%, and a price increase of over 20,000 yuan per ton within a month [2] - Strong demand from the power terminal and continuous inventory depletion are contributing to a favorable lithium carbonate market outlook, with expectations of a reversal in the fundamental landscape [2] Group 2 - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, Li Liangbin, predicts global lithium carbonate demand will reach 1.55 million tons by 2025, with supply at 1.7 million tons, and a potential 30% growth in demand by 2026 [3] - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, prices could potentially break through 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton due to supply constraints [3] - Ganfeng Lithium has extended its industrial chain downstream, establishing a complete solid-state battery integration layout and commercial capabilities, with ongoing development of solid-state batteries showing significant advantages over traditional liquid batteries [3]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa maintains a "Underperform" rating for Ganfeng Lithium (01772) and raises the target price from HKD 23 to HKD 53, reflecting a 22% discount for Ganfeng's A-shares, based on improved liquidity in the H-share market [1] Group 1: Company Performance - The company is expected to record net profits from 2025 to 2027, in contrast to a net loss in 2024 [1] - Daiwa has revised its lithium price forecasts for Ganfeng, expecting average prices of RMB 73,000 and RMB 79,000 per ton for the next two years, up from previous estimates of RMB 70,000 [1] Group 2: Industry Outlook - According to the latest supply-demand analysis, global lithium supply is projected to be in surplus by 76,000 tons and 54,000 tons in the next two years, down from a surplus of 124,000 tons last year [1] - The firm believes that lithium prices in China will stabilize between RMB 75,000 and RMB 90,000 per ton next year, which is higher than earlier predictions [1]

Core Viewpoint - Daiwa maintains a "Underperform" rating for Ganfeng Lithium, raising the target price from HKD 23 to HKD 53, anticipating a return to net profit from 2025 to 2027 after a net loss in 2024 [1] Supply and Demand Analysis - The latest supply-demand analysis indicates a projected global lithium oversupply of 76,000 tons in 2025 and 54,000 tons in 2026, which is lower than last year's oversupply of 124,000 tons [1] Price Forecast - The firm believes that lithium prices in China will stabilize between CNY 75,000 to CNY 90,000 per ton next year, which is higher than the previous forecast of an average selling price of CNY 70,000 per ton for Ganfeng Lithium in the next two years [1] - The price forecast for Ganfeng Lithium's lithium per ton has been adjusted to CNY 73,000 and CNY 79,000 for the next two years, leading to an increase in revenue projections for the company [1]

Core Viewpoint - The global lithium market is expected to see an improvement in supply-demand balance from this year to next year, driven by higher-than-expected demand for energy storage systems and electric vehicle batteries, although supply growth is hindered, leading to a conservative outlook on lithium price increases for next year [1] Company Analysis - Daiwa maintains a "Underperform" rating for Ganfeng Lithium (01772), raising the target price from HKD 23 to HKD 53 [1] - Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ) A-share rating is downgraded from "Underperform" to "Sell," with the target price increased from RMB 36 to RMB 50 [1] Industry Forecast - The forecast indicates a global lithium surplus of 76,000 tons in 2025, decreasing to 54,000 tons in 2026, significantly down from 121,000 tons in 2024 [1] - Lithium prices are projected to remain in the range of RMB 75,000 to RMB 90,000 per ton next year, with limited upward potential compared to the current level of RMB 85,000 per ton [1] - It is believed that lithium prices in China will remain soft from Q4 this year to Q1 next year, primarily due to weak demand during the Lunar New Year and the off-season for global electric vehicles [1]

Core Insights - On November 17, Yahua Group's stock rose by 10.00%, with a trading volume of 2.465 billion yuan [1] - As of November 17, the total margin balance for Yahua Group was 740 million yuan, indicating a high level of margin activity [1] Financing Summary - On November 17, Yahua Group had a financing buy-in amount of 239 million yuan, with a net buy of 36.56 million yuan after 203 million yuan in repayments [1] - The current financing balance of 731 million yuan accounts for 2.54% of the circulating market value, exceeding the 70th percentile of the past year [1] - The short selling activity on the same day included a repayment of 900 shares and a sale of 11,000 shares, totaling 274,800 yuan in sales [1] Company Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Yahua Group reported a revenue of 6.047 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 2.07% [2] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 334 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 116.02% [2] Shareholder Information - As of November 10, the number of shareholders for Yahua Group was 104,000, a decrease of 7.14% from the previous period [2] - The average number of circulating shares per shareholder increased by 7.69% to 10,178 shares [2] Dividend Information - Yahua Group has distributed a total of 1.24 billion yuan in dividends since its A-share listing, with 622 million yuan distributed over the past three years [3] Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten circulating shareholders included Invesco Great Wall New Energy Industry Fund, which increased its holdings by 286,200 shares to 13.4998 million shares [3] - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited decreased its holdings by 154,320 shares to 13.2388 million shares [3]