Group 1 - The Hang Seng Index rose by 0.28%, gaining 68 points to close at 24,658 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index increased by 0.61% [1] - The Hong Kong stock market saw a trading volume of HKD 157.9 billion in the morning session [1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration of China added innovative commercial insurance drugs to the list for 2025, supporting new drugs with high clinical value but payment bottlenecks, leading to a rise in the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index [1] Group 2 - Livzon Pharmaceutical (01513) surged by 12.69% as the Phase II clinical trial for its cardiovascular innovative drug H001 capsule completed patient enrollment [2] - InnoCare Pharma (02577) increased by 6.41%, planning to significantly enhance its 8-inch gallium nitride wafer production capacity over the next five years [2] - China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) rose by 3.83% following reports of a meeting held by relevant authorities to ensure the supply and stabilize prices of potash fertilizer [2] Group 3 - Chongqing Machinery and Electric (02722) saw a significant increase of over 17% due to catalysts in the domestic AIDC market, with Chongqing Cummins being a supplier for engines [2] Group 4 - Jifang Zhitu Holdings (09636) rose by 10.18% after announcing a proposed share placement to raise approximately HKD 746 million for developing on-chain financial resources [3] Group 5 - Smoore International (06969) fell by 3.55%, expecting a year-on-year decline of approximately 21% to 35% in half-year profits [4] - Kanglong Chemical (03759) issued a profit warning, dropping by 5.24%, with an expected year-on-year decline of 36% to 39% in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half [5]

1、今天上午第三届中国国际供应链促进博览会在北京开幕，本届链博会设置"6链1展区"，展现全球产 业链供应链合作最新成果和经验。2、公安部日前印发实施《关于依法打击知识产权犯罪服务高质量发 展的意见》。《意见》明确，要向保护科技创新精准发力，深入开展防范打击商业秘密犯罪"安芯"专项 工作，依法严厉打击侵犯商业秘密犯罪，助力因地制宜发展新质生产力。3、中农集团、 中化化肥等7 家骨干钾肥流通企业倡议：增加钾肥供应、降价让利销售，推动肥价尽快回归合理水平。4、美贸易代 表办公室宣布对巴西发起"301调查"。5、截至午间收盘， 上证指数跌0.12%， 深证成指涨0.11%， 创业 板指涨0.36%。 恒生指数涨0.28%， 恒生科技指数涨0.61%。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Report's Core Viewpoints - Urea: The recent decline in the futures market is due to weak domestic demand, with summer agricultural demand weakening and industrial demand affected by high temperatures. Although export quotas are being implemented, the second - batch quota has not circulated, so the domestic supply - demand imbalance persists, and the futures market may face pressure in the short term [6]. - Methanol: The inland market's maintenance has peaked, and production is expected to increase in late July. The port market faces dual pressures, with expected arrivals of 125 million tons in July and planned maintenance of coastal MTO, which will reduce ethylene demand. It is expected that the port will experience a slight inventory build - up in July, but the absolute inventory is low, with limited upside and downside, suggesting interval operations [9]. - Pure Benzene and Styrene: In July, the supply - demand outlook for pure benzene is improving, but high import expectations and high port inventories limit its upward momentum. Downstream price transmission is poor, restricting its rebound. It may fluctuate weakly in the short term. For styrene, high industry profits have led to high - level operations, but some downstream losses and high finished - product inventories have led to production cuts. Supply - demand is expected to weaken, and short - term basis may face pressure [11]. - PVC and Caustic Soda: The caustic soda spot market is generally stable, with some downstream demand support. There is an upward price expectation in the peak season. The PVC market has shown signs of a pull - back after a rise. The supply - demand pattern is in a off - season of increasing supply and decreasing demand, with weak procurement enthusiasm. It is recommended to wait and see [20]. - Crude Oil: Overnight oil prices fluctuated within a range. The macro - risk has eased, and the short - term supply concern has dissipated. Although China's refinery operating rate has reached a 10 - month high, it is overshadowed by macro - negatives. Short - term band strategies are recommended, and options can capture opportunities from increased volatility [24]. - Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP): Both PP and PE show a supply contraction, with compressed weighted profits and marginal profit repair. Static supply and demand are both decreasing, with inventory accumulation and weak apparent demand. In July, the supply pressure is not significant, and inventory reduction has improved. Unilateral strategies suggest interval operations, and LP250 can be taken as a profit - taking point for arbitrage [43]. - Polyester Industry Chain: For PX, the supply - demand is expected to remain tight, but the upward rebound is under pressure. For PTA, the supply - demand is expected to be weak, and the absolute price rebound is limited. For ethylene glycol, the supply - demand is turning to be loose, and the price is expected to fluctuate. For short - fiber, the supply - demand is weak, and the processing fee repair space is limited. For bottle - chips, the supply - demand has an improvement expectation, but the absolute price follows the cost [47]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Urea - **Futures Prices**: On July 15, the 01, 05, 09 contracts and the methanol main contract all declined compared to July 14, with the 09 contract having the largest decline of 1.87% [1]. - **Futures Contract Spreads**: The spreads between different contracts changed significantly. For example, the spread of 01 - 05 contract decreased by 128.57% [2]. - **Main Positions**: The number of long positions of the top 20 decreased by 3.47%, while the number of short positions increased by 4.39% [3]. - **Upstream Raw Materials**: The prices of upstream raw materials such as anthracite and steam coal remained unchanged [4]. - **Spot Market Prices**: Spot prices in most regions declined, with the largest decline of 3.72% in Northeast China [5]. - **Supply - Demand**: Daily production remained stable, while weekly production increased by 1.12%. Factory and port inventories changed, with factory inventory decreasing by 4.99% and port inventory increasing by 10.98% [5]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: The MA2601 and MA2509 contract prices declined on July 15 compared to July 14. The inventory of methanol enterprises, ports, and society all increased [9]. - **Operating Rates**: The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate decreased by 4.11%, while some downstream operating rates changed, with the water - coal slurry operating rate increasing by 1.69% [9]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of related products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha declined on July 15 compared to July 14. The pure benzene and styrene port inventories increased [11]. - **Operating Rates**: The operating rates of some links in the pure benzene and styrene industry chains changed slightly, with the Asian pure benzene operating rate decreasing by 0.1% [11]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Spot and Futures Prices**: The prices of PVC and caustic soda products were mostly stable on July 15, with some minor declines in futures prices [15]. - **Overseas Quotes and Export Profits**: The FOB East China port price of caustic soda decreased by 3.8%, and the export profit decreased significantly. The export profit of PVC increased slightly [16][17]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda and PVC operating rates changed slightly, and the demand - side operating rates of downstream industries also changed [18][19][20]. Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On July 16, Brent crude oil declined by 0.72%, WTI increased by 0.54%, and SC decreased by 1.26%. The spreads between different contracts and varieties also changed [24]. - **Refining Spreads**: The refining spreads of various refined products changed, with the European diesel refining spread increasing by 4.89% [24]. Polyolefins (LLDPE and PP) - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The futures prices of L2601, L2509, PP2601, and PP2509 all declined on July 15 compared to July 14. Spot prices also decreased slightly [43]. - **Operating Rates and Inventories**: The operating rates of PE and PP production and downstream industries changed slightly, and inventories increased [43]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream and Downstream Prices**: The prices of upstream products such as Brent crude oil and CFR Japan naphtha declined on July 15 compared to July 14. Downstream polyester product prices and cash flows also changed [47]. - **Supply - Demand and Operating Rates**: The operating rates of various links in the polyester industry chain changed, with the PTA operating rate increasing by 2.6% and the polyester bottle - chip operating rate decreasing by 4.7% [47].

Core Viewpoint - The large particle urea market is experiencing significant growth, with production expected to reach 14 million tons by 2025, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 5.5% [1] Group 1: Production and Market Trends - In 2024, domestic large particle urea production is projected to reach 11.78 million tons, an increase of 761,100 tons compared to 2023 [1] - The production of primary granulation large particle urea is expected to be 10.47 million tons, a decrease of 56,600 tons from 2023, while secondary granulation large particle urea production is anticipated to be 1.31 million tons, an increase of 817,700 tons [1] - The significant increase in total production is primarily driven by the notable rise in secondary granulation large particle urea [1] Group 2: Demand Structure - The demand for large particle urea is categorized into three main areas: agricultural base fertilizer (60%-70% share), production of coated compound fertilizers (15%-20% share), and direct production of blended BB fertilizers (10%-15% share) [2][3] - Coated urea is further divided into slow-release (40% share), controlled-release (30% share), and functional coated urea (25% share) [2] Group 3: Future Growth Drivers - The market outlook for large particle urea is positive due to increasing agricultural demand and the preference for high-quality fertilizers among farmers and agricultural enterprises [3] - The total production of controlled-release fertilizers in China reached 12 million tons in 2023, a growth of 8.5% year-on-year, with a total output value of 36 billion yuan, up 9.2% from the previous year [3] - The market size for coated urea in agriculture is expected to grow from approximately 9 billion yuan in 2023 to 10.5 billion yuan by 2025, with a CAGR of about 7% [4] Group 4: Technological and Policy Support - Key growth drivers include continuous market demand growth, technological breakthroughs in bio-based coating materials and smart controlled-release technologies, and supportive government policies promoting the use of slow-release fertilizers [4][5] - The international market for domestic coated urea is expected to expand, with exports projected to reach 180,000 tons by 2025, accounting for about 15% of total coated urea production [5]

Group 1: Market Overview - The recent meeting on potassium fertilizer supply and price stabilization highlighted concerns over abnormal price increases, with companies committing to enhance market supply to bring prices back to reasonable levels [1] - As of July 11, prices for various potassium fertilizers at Qingdao and Zhanjiang ports showed significant weekly increases, with prices rising by 5.9% to 4.48% [1] - The price for the 2025 annual potassium fertilizer import contract was agreed at $346 per ton CFR, reflecting a $73 per ton increase from the 2024 contract price [1] Group 2: Price Dynamics - In the first half of the year, the market price of potassium chloride surged by 800 to 1000 yuan per ton, prompting government intervention through the release of state reserves to stabilize prices [2] - The total auction volume for state reserves reached 1.1 million tons, aimed at supporting downstream compound fertilizer factories and direct agricultural users [2] Group 3: Company Performance - Companies in the potassium fertilizer sector reported substantial profit growth due to rising prices, with Oriental Iron Tower expecting a net profit increase of 63.8% to 79.78% in the first half of the year [3] - Yaqi International projected a net profit increase of 170% to 244%, attributing this to stable production, increased sales, and higher selling prices [3] - Cangge Mining announced an expected net profit increase of 34.93% to 46.49%, with significant contributions from its investment in a copper company and its potassium chloride business [4] Group 4: Future Demand - According to Argus, global potassium fertilizer demand is projected to rise to 74.3 million tons by 2025, with significant demand expected from Asia, Latin America, and North America [4]

印度化肥短缺风波：23名议员被暂停职务，农民被迫高价抢购！真相到底是什么？ 相关链接 期货盯盘神器专属文章 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating was provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The report indicates that due to the resumption of production in previously overhauled units, the daily output of domestic urea has increased, and the short - term urea operating rate may remain high. As the agricultural demand season is approaching, only local agricultural top - dressing has a small amount of demand. The autumn pre - sales of compound fertilizer enterprises are good, leading to an increase in the operating rate and procurement. The operating rate of melamine has recovered, but weak downstream demand may limit its further increase. Recently, the shipment of urea factories varies significantly, and inventory changes are mixed. Last week, the overall inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline, and some urea factories continued to execute previous export orders. However, this week, the industrial demand is expected to weaken further, the increase in agricultural demand is decreasing, and as the execution of previous export orders enters the later stage, the overall inventory reduction speed of urea may slow down. The unexpectedly high urea tender price in India boosts the confidence of the domestic market. In the short - term, attention should be paid to the release time, quantity, and allocated enterprises of the second batch of urea export quotas. It is recommended to trade the UR2509 contract in the range of 1720 - 1750 yuan/ton [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 1731 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread was 24 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [2]. - The position of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 201,388 lots, an increase of 3,396 lots; the net position of the top 20 was - 24,407 lots, a decrease of 2,450 lots [2]. - The exchange warehouse receipts of Zhengzhou urea were 2,630, unchanged [2]. Spot Market - The spot prices in Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, Shandong, and Anhui were 1790, 1840, 1840, 1810, and 1850 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 20, 10, 20, 10, and 10 yuan/ton [2]. - The FOB prices in the Baltic Sea and the Chinese main port were 427.5 and 410 US dollars/ton respectively, unchanged [2]. - The basis of the Zhengzhou urea main contract was 79 yuan/ton, an increase of 23 yuan/ton [2]. Industry Situation - The port inventory was 48.9 tons (weekly), an increase of 4.9 tons; the enterprise inventory was 96.77 tons (weekly), a decrease of 5.08 tons [2]. - The operating rate of urea enterprises was 85.26% (weekly), an increase of 0.94%; the daily output of urea was 197,400 tons (weekly), an increase of 2,200 tons [2]. - The export volume of urea was 0, unchanged; the monthly output of urea was 6,031,340 tons, a decrease of 261,890 tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The operating rate of compound fertilizer was 29.83% (weekly), an increase of 0.58%; the operating rate of melamine was 62.56% (weekly), a decrease of 0.43% [2]. - The weekly profit of compound fertilizer was 134 yuan/ton, a decrease of 11 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine (using externally - purchased urea) was - 646 yuan/ton, a decrease of 216 yuan/ton [2]. - The monthly output of compound fertilizer was 416.82 tons, a decrease of 64.08 tons; the weekly output of melamine was 31,000 tons, a decrease of 300 tons [2]. Industry News - As of July 9, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 96.77 tons, a decrease of 5.08 tons from the previous week, a 4.99% decrease [2]. - As of July 10, the capacity utilization rate of domestic methanol - to - olefin plants was 85.94%, a 0.55% increase [2]. - As of July 10, the weekly output of Chinese urea was 138.18 tons, an increase of 1.53 tons from the previous week, a 1.12% increase; the average daily output was 19.74 tons, an increase of 0.22 tons [2]. 4. Suggested Focus The report suggests paying attention to the enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate data from Longzhong on Thursday [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the chemical industry as of July 15, 2025 [1] Core Insights - The potassium fertilizer prices are experiencing a continuous recovery, benefiting companies with abundant resources [2] - Domestic production of potassium chloride has decreased year-on-year, while inventory levels remain low, indicating a tightening supply [3] - The potassium fertilizer market is characterized by an oligopoly, with geopolitical conflicts introducing uncertainties that may affect supply and pricing [4] Summary by Sections Potassium Fertilizer Price Trends - As of July 11, 2025, domestic prices for potassium chloride have risen significantly, with prices at 3339 CNY/ton and 3000 CNY/ton, marking increases of 823 CNY/ton and 450 CNY/ton since the beginning of the year [2] - In Q2 2025, the average price for domestic potassium chloride was 2993.95 CNY/ton, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter increase of 105.50 CNY/ton and a year-on-year increase of 597.50 CNY/ton [2] Domestic Production and Inventory - In the first half of 2025, China's potassium chloride production totaled 2.53 million tons, a decrease of 17.1% year-on-year, with June's production at 416,300 tons, down 27.9% year-on-year [3] - Domestic market inventory stands at 1.768 million tons, down 820,000 tons since the beginning of the year, indicating a tight supply situation [3] Market Structure and Geopolitical Risks - The global potassium fertilizer market is dominated by a few countries, primarily Canada, Russia, and Belarus, creating an oligopolistic structure [4] - Recent geopolitical tensions, such as the U.S. imposing tariffs on potassium fertilizer imports from Canada and Mexico, and conflicts involving Israel, pose risks to supply and pricing stability [4] Investment Opportunities - The report highlights that companies with rich potassium resources are likely to benefit from the ongoing market recovery, with specific companies mentioned as potential investment targets [9]

序号股票简称PE(TTM)PE(静)市净率总市值(元)12亚钾国际23.4430.922.43293.85亿行业平均 24.8326.102.47161.97亿行业中值22.3624.461.7279.30亿1云天化8.087.821.76416.92亿2史丹利 11.6912.401.44102.40亿3新洋丰11.7713.291.59174.78亿4云图控股14.5415.271.37122.83亿5兴发集团 16.6515.911.17254.74亿6司尔特16.7414.640.8545.58亿7盐湖股份18.8919.752.44920.73亿8芭田股份 18.9924.462.95100.07亿9东方铁塔20.0321.391.32120.67亿10华昌化工21.1612.481.1365.05亿11四川美丰 21.2814.400.9439.12亿 截至2025年一季报，共有34家机构持仓亚钾国际，其中基金25家、其他8家、社保1家，合计持股数 44568.20万股，持股市值108.84亿元。 来源：金融界 7月15日，亚钾国际今日收盘31.8元，下跌2.15%，滚动市盈率PE（当前股价与前四 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the urea industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - Market trading sentiment has weakened, and downstream factories are cautious in purchasing. Urea production remains high due to few planned maintenance schedules for urea enterprises. Currently in the peak agricultural demand season, agricultural demand continues to progress, the compound fertilizer industry's production has increased, and it is gradually purchasing raw materials for autumn fertilizers, resulting in a temporary increase in urea demand. Industrial demand remains weak, with the melamine industry's production declining month - on - month and the panel industry being sluggish. Urea exports are favorable, with an increasing willingness to gather at ports, leading to a continuous increase in port inventory and a decrease in upstream factory inventory, awaiting the announcement of a new round of export quotas [2] Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On July 14, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,764 yuan/ton (-9). The ex - factory price of small - granular urea in Henan was 1,840 yuan/ton (0); in Shandong, it was 1,820 yuan/ton (-40); in Jiangsu, it was 1,840 yuan/ton (-20). The basis in Shandong was 56 yuan/ton (-31); in Henan, it was 76 yuan/ton (-1); in Jiangsu, it was 76 yuan/ton (-11) [1] 2. Urea Output - As of July 14, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 85.27% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 96.77 million tons (-5.08). Urea enterprises have few maintenance plans, and production remains at a high level [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - On July 14, 2025, the urea production profit was 290 yuan/ton (-40). The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 29.83% (+0.58%), and the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 62.56% (-0.43%) [1] 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - On July 14, 2025, the export profit was 879 yuan/ton (+194). Urea exports are favorable, with an increasing willingness to gather at ports, and port inventory is continuously increasing [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of July 14, 2025, the number of pre - received order days for urea enterprises was 5.94 days (+0.58). The compound fertilizer industry is gradually purchasing raw materials for autumn fertilizers, and the demand for urea shows a temporary increase. Industrial demand remains weak, with the melamine industry's production declining month - on - month and the panel industry being sluggish [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of July 14, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 96.77 million tons (-5.08), and the port sample inventory was 48.50 million tons (+4.80). Urea upstream factory inventory is decreasing, and port inventory is increasing [1][2]