行业 PTA 日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 12 日 油） 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 硅）028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油燃料 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（尿素、工业 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 请阅读正文后的声明 一、 行业要闻 请阅读正文后的 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the report industry investment rating is provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall view of the asphalt market is that the supply pressure is high, the demand recovery is weak, and the short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range. The asphalt 2602 contract is expected to oscillate between 2935 - 2985 [8][9]. - The supply side shows that the planned production volume in December 2025 decreased slightly compared with the previous month, but the production capacity utilization rate increased this week, and the refineries increased production, which may increase the supply pressure next week [8]. - The demand side indicates that the current demand is lower than the historical average level, with the开工 rates of various types of asphalt and related products mostly below the historical average [8]. - The cost side shows that the asphalt processing loss increased, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased, and the support from crude oil is expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - The base - point situation on December 11 shows that the spot price in Shandong is at a discount to the futures price, which is a bearish factor [9]. - In terms of inventory, the social inventory is in a state of continuous destocking, while the factory - level inventory and port inventory are in a state of continuous accumulation, showing a neutral situation [9]. - The disk shows that the MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract is below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Viewpoints - **Supply - side**: In December 2025, the total planned asphalt production is 2.158 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt is 30.0815%, a month - on - month increase of 0.599 percentage points. The sample enterprises' shipment volume is 280,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 7.06%, and the output is 502,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.03%. The estimated maintenance volume of the sample enterprises' devices is 826,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.61%. The refineries increased production this week, increasing the supply pressure, and the supply pressure may increase next week [8]. - **Demand - side**: The construction rate of heavy - traffic asphalt is 27.9%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of building asphalt is 6.6%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of modified asphalt is 9.2238%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.34 percentage points and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of road - modified asphalt is 29%, with no month - on - month change and lower than the historical average; the construction rate of waterproofing membranes is 34%, a month - on - month increase of 0.20 percentage points and lower than the historical average. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - **Cost - side**: The daily asphalt processing profit is - 529.49 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 6.50%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries is 1,003.1686 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.05%. The asphalt processing loss increased, the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking decreased, and the crude oil is weakening, with the support expected to weaken in the short term [8]. - **Base - point**: On December 11, the spot price in Shandong is 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 02 contract is - 30 yuan/ton, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Inventory**: The social inventory is 745,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.74%; the factory - level inventory is 588,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.20%; the port diluted asphalt inventory is 670,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 17.54%. The social inventory is continuously destocking, while the factory - level inventory and port inventory are continuously accumulating, showing a neutral situation [9]. - **Disk**: The MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 02 contract is below the MA20, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Main Positions**: The main positions are net short, and the short positions are increasing, which is a bearish factor [9]. - **Expectation**: The refineries' recent production arrangements have increased production, increasing the supply pressure. Affected by the off - season, the demand boost is limited, and the overall demand is lower than expected and sluggish; the inventory is flat; the crude oil is weakening, and the cost support will weaken in the short term. It is expected that the disk will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with the asphalt 2602 contract oscillating between 2935 - 2985 [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, basis, inventory, and other data of multiple asphalt futures contracts (01 - 12 contracts), including price changes, basis changes, and inventory changes compared with the previous period [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China basis of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [19][21]. 3.4 Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main Contract Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the spreads of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [23][24]. - **Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend**: The report presents the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 to 2025 [27]. - **Crude Oil Crack Spread**: The report shows the historical trends of the crack spreads of asphalt and SC, WTI, and Brent crude oils from 2020 to 2025 [30][31]. - **Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend**: The report presents the historical trends of the price ratios of asphalt, SC crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 to 2025 [33][35]. 3.5 Asphalt Spot Market - Market Price Trends in Various Regions - The report shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [36][37]. 3.6 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit Analysis** - **Asphalt Profit**: The report presents the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [38][39]. - **Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the profit spreads between coking and asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [41][43]. - **Supply - side Analysis** - **Shipment Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly shipment volume of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 to 2025 [45][46]. - **Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory**: The report shows the historical trends of the domestic diluted asphalt port inventory from 2021 to 2025 [47][48]. - **Output**: The report presents the historical trends of the weekly and monthly output of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [50][51]. - **Maya Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend**: The report shows the historical trends of the Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly output from 2018 to 2025 [54][56]. - **Local Refinery Asphalt Output**: The report presents the historical trends of the local refinery asphalt output from 2019 to 2025 [57][58]. - **Operating Rate**: The report shows the historical trends of the weekly operating rate of asphalt from 2021 to 2025 [60][61]. - **Estimated Maintenance Loss Volume**: The report presents the historical trends of the estimated maintenance loss volume of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [63][64]. - **Inventory Analysis** - **Exchange Warehouse Receipts**: The report shows the historical trends of the exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory - level inventory) of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [66][69]. - **Social Inventory and Factory - level Inventory**: The report presents the historical trends of the social inventory (70 samples) and factory - level inventory (54 samples) of asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [70][71]. - **Factory - level Inventory Inventory Ratio**: The report shows the historical trends of the factory - level inventory inventory ratio of asphalt from 2018 to 2025 [73][74]. - **Import - Export Situation** - The report presents the historical trends of asphalt exports and imports from 2019 to 2025, as well as the historical trends of the import price difference of South Korean asphalt from 2020 to 2025 [76][80]. - **Demand - side Analysis** - **Petroleum Coke Output**: The report presents the historical trends of petroleum coke output from 2019 to 2025 [82][83]. - **Apparent Consumption**: The report shows the historical trends of the apparent consumption of asphalt from 2019 to 2025 [85][86]. - **Downstream Demand** - **Highway Construction and Transportation Fixed - Asset Investment, New Local Special Bonds, and Infrastructure Investment Completion Year - on - Year**: The report presents the historical trends of highway construction and transportation fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 to 2025 [88][90]. - **Downstream Machinery Demand**: The report shows the historical trends of the sales volume of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly operating hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 to 2025 [92][95]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate** - **Heavy - traffic Asphalt Operating Rate**: The report presents the historical trends of the heavy - traffic asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [97][98]. - **Asphalt Operating Rate by Use**: The report shows the historical trends of the construction asphalt operating rate and the modified asphalt operating rate from 2019 to 2025 [100][101]. - **Downstream Operating Conditions**: The report presents the historical trends of the operating rates of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt, and shoe - material TPR from 2019 to 2025 [102][105]. - **Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: The report presents the monthly supply - demand balance sheet of asphalt from 2024 to 2025, including monthly output, import volume, export volume, downstream demand, social inventory, factory - level inventory, and diluted asphalt port inventory [107][108].

2025 年 12 月 12 日 沥青：原油弱势反复，BU 低位运行 王涵西 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0019174 wanghanxi@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 -50000 0 50000 100000 150000 200000 250000 300000 吨 山东 江苏 广东 辽宁 BU厂库仓单 表 1：沥青基本面数据 | | 项目 | 单位 | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨跌 | 昨夜夜盘收盘价 | 夜盘涨跌 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | BU2602 | 元/吨 | 2,960 | 0.68% | 2,904 | -1.89% | | | BU2603 | 元/吨 | 2,973 | 0.51% | 2,920 | -1.78% | | | | | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | 期货 | BU2602 | 手 | 256,002 | 114,769 | 208,301 | 2,329 | | | BU2603 | 手 | 71,413 | 35,287 | 93,858 | 2,305 | | | | ...

Core Viewpoint - The stock of Maohua Shihua (000637) has shown a decline in price and mixed capital flow, indicating potential challenges in its financial performance and market perception [1][2]. Financial Performance - As of December 11, 2025, Maohua Shihua's stock closed at 4.41 yuan, down 1.34% with a trading volume of 10.91 million shares and a total transaction value of 48.54 million yuan [1]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported a main revenue of 2.30 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.24%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -93.73 million yuan, which is an increase of 18.15% year-on-year [3]. - The company's third-quarter revenue was 823 million yuan, down 11.88% year-on-year, while the net profit for the quarter was -11.07 million yuan, reflecting a significant year-on-year increase of 45.76% [3]. Capital Flow Analysis - On December 11, 2025, the net inflow of main funds was 3.14 million yuan, accounting for 6.46% of the total transaction value, while retail investors experienced a net outflow of 3.15 million yuan, representing 6.50% of the total [1][2]. - Over the past five days, the stock has seen fluctuating capital flows, with notable net inflows and outflows from both institutional and retail investors [2]. Industry Comparison - Maohua Shihua's total market capitalization is 2.29 billion yuan, significantly lower than the industry average of 209.01 billion yuan [3]. - The company's net profit margin stands at -4.55%, compared to the industry average of 4.47%, indicating underperformance in profitability metrics [3]. - The company's return on equity (ROE) is -15.58%, contrasting sharply with the industry average of 1.3%, highlighting challenges in generating returns for shareholders [3].

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating a strategy to enhance shareholder value and confidence in its stock performance [2][3]. Share Buyback Summary - On December 11, 2025, Sinopec repurchased 2.546 million shares at a price range of HKD 4.280 to HKD 4.370, totaling HKD 10.9615 million [2]. - The stock closed at HKD 4.290 on the same day, reflecting a decline of 1.15%, with a total trading volume of HKD 370 million [2]. - Since October 30, 2025, the company has conducted buybacks for 31 consecutive days, acquiring a total of 13 million shares for a cumulative amount of HKD 57.1 million, during which the stock price increased by 1.66% [2]. - Year-to-date, Sinopec has executed 64 buybacks, totaling 35.2 million shares and an aggregate expenditure of HKD 163.7 million [2]. Detailed Buyback Data - The buyback details include various dates, number of shares repurchased, highest and lowest prices, and total amounts spent, showcasing a consistent buyback strategy [3].

南方财经21世纪经济报道记者郑青亭 北京报道 12月11日，中国石油集团经济技术研究院副院长吴谋远在2025国际能源发展高峰论坛上发布《2060年世界与中国能源展望》。 报告指出，未来十年全球油气需求仍将保持增长，维持新增产能和弥补产量递减仍需要大量投资。应避免油气价格短期波动影 响投资和信心，确保供应稳定，有效防范产量下滑冲击全球经济。 在全球能源转型的大势之下，石油化工行业何去何从？吴谋远认为，化工用油仍有较大增长潜力。石油需求加速转向化工品、 新材料制造领域，成为支撑能源转型关键"原料"。 报告指出，到2050年，中国化工用油将增至2.9亿吨峰值，较2025年增长57%，2050年后维持在峰值平台期，占石油需求比重提 升至50%以上。2040年后，绿氨和绿醇规模化应用推动化工用油绿色低碳发展，到2060年占化工用油比重达到30%。 不过，与全球巨大的不确定性相比，中国则展现出了在能源转型方面的巨大确定性。报告指出，未来10年，中国能源结构将呈 现煤减、油气稳、非化石升的特征。到2035年初步形成"三足鼎立"格局，油气需求占比高于25%，维持主体能源地位。到2060 年，化石能源、水核、风、光占比将分别达 ...

Group 1 - The company, Degute (SZ 300950), announced that its fifth board meeting will be held on December 11, 2025, to review the achievement of the conditions for the third vesting period of the 2022 restricted stock incentive plan [1] - For the first half of 2025, Degute's revenue composition is as follows: 50.31% from the petrochemical industry, 40.32% from the coal chemical industry, 8.59% from other industries, and 0.78% from other businesses [1] - As of the report date, Degute's market capitalization is 3.5 billion yuan [1]

12月5日，中央企业和地方国资国企社会责任蓝皮书发布会在京举办。国务院国资委党委委员、副主任 庞骁刚出席会议并致辞。会议以"勇担新使命 践行新担当"为主题，集中发布并解读《中央企业社会责 任蓝皮书（2025）》《中央企业上市公司环境、社会和企业治理（ESG）蓝皮书（2025）》《国资国企 社会责任蓝皮书（2025）》，全面展示国资国企履责实践和积极成效。同时还发布了全国留守儿童关爱 保护"百场宣讲进工地"暨"中央企业同心护未来"社会责任行动。近年来，中央企业和地方国资国企深入 学习贯彻习近平总书记关于社会责任工作的重要指示精神，以高标准履行社会责任助力加快实现高质量 发展，在社会责任各领域作出突出贡献，得到社会各界广泛认可。中国石化、中国一汽、招商局集团、 中广核、天津市国资委、山西省国资委、湖北联投集团、河钢集团主要负责同志作了交流发言。各中央 企业、各地方国资委以及有关国有企业负责同志等参加会议。 ...

Investment Direction 1: Dividend Strategy - Recommended companies include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC), China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec), and China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with an expected Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026 [2][3] - CNOOC is committed to maintaining a dividend payout ratio of no less than 45% from 2025 to 2027, while PetroChina benefits from domestic natural gas market reforms [2][3] Investment Direction 2: Capital Allocation to Undervalued Chemical Leaders - Recommended companies include Wanhua Chemical, Baofeng Energy, Satellite Chemical, and Hualu Hengsheng, which are expected to benefit from industry barriers related to cost, technology, and market [2][3] - The report suggests prioritizing capital allocation to chemical ETFs and leading companies as their performance is expected to stabilize [2][3] Investment Direction 3: Price Increases Driven by Downstream Demand - Traditional demand sectors such as food additives, pesticides, and fertilizers are highlighted, with companies like New Hope Liuhe and Jiangshan Chemical expected to benefit from stable growth in demand [2][3] - Emerging demand in phosphorous and fluorine chemicals is driven by the needs of new energy battery and AI cooling applications, with companies like Chuanheng Chemical and Juhua Co. being key players [2][3] Investment Direction 4: Domestic Anti-Competition Driving Price Increases - The report emphasizes the focus on large refining and chemical companies such as Hengli Petrochemical and Rongsheng Petrochemical, which are expected to benefit from anti-competitive measures in the domestic market [2][3] - The organic silicon sector is entering the end of its expansion cycle, with major companies like Sinan Silicon Material adjusting industry operating rates [2][3] - The soda ash industry is facing capacity controls and the need to phase out outdated production, with companies like Boyuan Chemical under observation [2][3] Oil Price Analysis - The report anticipates a Brent oil price range of $60-70 per barrel in 2026, with a slight oversupply expected [11][12] - OPEC+ has postponed production increases for Q1 2026, indicating a cautious approach to market conditions [11][12] - The report highlights geopolitical factors, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and U.S.-Venezuela relations, which may impact oil supply dynamics [12][13] Three Major Oil Companies Insights - CNOOC is focused on increasing reserves and production while reducing costs, while PetroChina is benefiting from natural gas market reforms [34][36] - Sinopec is concentrating on domestic refining and chemical anti-competition developments [34][36] - The overall profitability of the three major oil companies is expected to be supported by the anticipated oil price stabilization [34][36]

摘要：【图】2025年8月新疆维吾尔自治区燃料油产量统计分析 2025年1-8月燃料油产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前8个月，新疆维吾尔自治区规模以上工业企业燃料油产量累计达到了 8.4万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，下降了16.2%，增速较2024年同期低7.5个百分点，增速较同期全 国低12.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业燃料油产量2837.1万吨的比重为0.3%。 图表：新疆维吾尔自治区燃料油产量分月（当月值）统计 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入2000万元及以上的工 业企业。 图表：新疆维吾尔自治区燃料油产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年8月燃料油产量分析： 单独看2025年8月份，新疆维吾尔自治区规模以上工业企业燃料油产量达到了1.0万吨，与2024年同期的 数据相比，8月份的产量增长了19.8%，增速较2024年同期高79.4个百分点，增速较同期全国高26.3个百 分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业燃料油产量343.7万吨的比重为0.3%。 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油发展现状及前景预测 化工市场调研及发展趋势 日化 ...