Core Viewpoint - The recent price increase of butadiene in China is driven by a combination of supply-demand dynamics, downstream demand recovery, policy benefits, and improved international trade conditions, indicating a systemic restructuring of the butadiene market [1][2]. Supply Dynamics - Sinopec raised the ex-factory price of butadiene to 11,100 yuan per ton, an increase of 800 yuan from the previous trading day, with prices in Shandong and East China reaching new highs in nearly five years [1]. - The current market shows a significant supply-demand imbalance, with a notable supply shortage due to maintenance of several production facilities, resulting in a monthly supply reduction of 50,000 tons [2]. - The unexpected shutdown rate of domestic butadiene facilities reached 12.7% in the first five months of this year, an increase of 4.3 percentage points compared to 2024, contributing to supply chain tightening [2]. Demand Dynamics - The downstream market for butadiene exhibits a dual trend, with traditional sectors like styrene-butadiene rubber and ABS resin facing production cuts due to cost pressures, while high-end applications see surging demand [3]. - In the automotive sector, the demand for hydrogenated nitrile butadiene rubber (HNBR) is increasing due to lightweight requirements, with specialized materials priced at 38,000 yuan, a premium of 120% over general materials [3]. - The aerospace materials sector is also experiencing over 30% growth in the application of specialty butadiene copolymers for seals and hoses [3]. Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the primary driver of butadiene price increases in the short term is supply contraction, while the medium-term focus should be on the sustainability of downstream ABS capacity expansion [3]. - The rapid development of electric vehicles and smart home appliances is expected to continue boosting demand for ABS resin, further supporting the butadiene market [3].

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The market remains weak due to the loose supply - demand situation. The price of liquefied petroleum gas shows different trends in various regions, with the overall supply being abundant and demand being sluggish. The unilateral strategy is to expect a weak oscillation, and the PG price is at a relatively low level with limited downside space [1][2]. 3. Summary by Section Market Analysis - **Regional Prices on May 27**: Shandong market: 4450 - 4540 yuan/ton; Northeast market: 4100 - 4250 yuan/ton; North China market: 4500 - 4670 yuan/ton; East China market: 4400 - 4650 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market: 4650 - 4980 yuan/ton; Northwest market: 4400 - 4500 yuan/ton; South China market: 4750 - 4900 yuan/ton [1]. - **China's East and South China Import Prices in Late June 2025**: In East China, propane is 609 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4819 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan/ton); butane is 561 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4439 yuan/ton (up 26 yuan/ton). In South China, propane is 612 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4843 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan/ton); butane is 564 dollars/ton (up 3 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4463 yuan/ton (up 27 yuan/ton) [1]. - **Market Conditions**: Spot prices in East and Northwest China increased, while those in other regions remained stable. The overall atmosphere was mild, with downstream purchasing based on rigid demand and sellers' inventories in good condition. Overseas supply remained abundant, and domestic refinery supply was expected to increase after the end of spring maintenance. The combustion demand entered the off - season, and the improvement of chemical demand was weak due to profit issues. Port inventories were high due to previous concentrated imports and needed to be gradually digested by the market [1]. Strategy - **Unilateral**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, and since the PG price is at a relatively low level, the downside space is limited. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2].

原油价格大幅波动、宏观风险、海外原料供应风险、沥青终端需求变动、装置开工负荷变动等 石油沥青日报 | 2025-05-28 现货流通趋紧，市场短期压力有限 市场分析 1、5月27日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2507合约下午收盘价3516元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨1元/吨，涨幅 0.03%；持仓129546手，环比下降15935手，成交290517手，环比上涨35110手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3750—4086元/吨；山东，3450—3800元/吨；华南，3410—3450元/吨； 华东，3500—3590元/吨。 昨日东北、华北以及山东市场价格均出现上涨，华南地区沥青现货价格小幅下跌，其余地区沥青现货价格以持稳 为主，盘面维持震荡运行，下方存在支撑，但上行驱动不足。具体来看，目前市场供应增量有限，部分炼厂停产 沥青或转产渣油，整体开工率或再度下滑，库存处于低位区间，近期累库幅度低于季节性。但另一方面，消费端 改善幅度仍不足，尤其降雨天气增加将限制项目施工及终端需求，并制约市场的上行空间。 策略 单边：震荡 跨期：逢低多BU2507-2509价差（正套） 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 ...

2025年1-3月汽油产量分析： 单独看2025年3月份，广西壮族自治区规模以上工业企业汽油产量达到了35.0万吨，与2024年同期的数 据相比，3月份的产量下降了10.9%，增速较2024年同期低11.7个百分点，增速较同期全国低4.8个百分 点，约占同期全国规模以上企业汽油产量1322万吨的比重为2.6%。 摘要：【图】2025年3月广西壮族自治区汽油产量统计分析 据国家统计局数据，在2025年的前3个月，广西壮族自治区规模以上工业企业汽油产量累计达到了91.3 万吨，与2024年同期的数据相比，下降了26.5%，增速较2024年同期低36.8个百分点，增速较同期全国 低21.4个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业汽油产量3905.3万吨的比重为2.3%。 图表：广西壮族自治区汽油产量分月（累计值）统计 2025年3月汽油产量分析： 石油化工行业最新动态 石油未来发展趋势预测 化工现状及发展前景 日化发展前景趋势分析 润滑油的现状和发展趋势 汽油行业现状与发展趋势 柴油市场现状及前景分析 橡胶市场调研与发展前景 塑料发展现状及前景预测 化妆品市场调研及发展趋势清洁护肤行业监测及发展趋势 图表：广西壮族自治区 ...

Core Viewpoint - The chemical industry is expected to experience a recovery in demand and a gradual elimination of outdated production capacity, leading to a potential upward trend in the industry cycle [1][3][6]. Group 1: Supply Side Dynamics - The capital expenditure of chemical listed companies is projected to decline starting in 2024, resulting in a decrease in fixed asset investment growth for chemical raw materials and products [3]. - The rapid expansion of chemical production capacity is anticipated to conclude by the second half of 2025 [3]. - The exit of outdated production capacity in Europe, driven by high energy costs and frequent uncontrollable events, is expected to alleviate global supply-demand imbalances for various chemical products [3]. - China's ongoing "energy conservation and carbon reduction" initiatives are likely to accelerate the elimination and transformation of high-energy-consuming outdated production capacity [3]. Group 2: Demand Side Factors - Favorable policies in China are expected to boost domestic demand for chemical products, with recent initiatives like the trade-in policy for consumer goods driving sales in the automotive and home appliance sectors [4]. - The Chinese government plans to enhance support for large-scale equipment upgrades and expand the variety and scale of trade-in policies by 2025, which is likely to further stimulate domestic chemical product demand [4]. - The impact of U.S. tariffs on direct exports of chemical products from China is considered limited, as the proportion of exports to the U.S. is relatively low compared to domestic production [5]. Group 3: Industry Cycle and Performance - In Q1 2025, the chemical industry showed mixed performance, with the petroleum and basic chemical sectors reporting revenues of 1,015.1 billion and 607 billion respectively, reflecting year-on-year changes of -7.1% and 6.4% [6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for the petroleum and basic chemical sectors was 17 billion and 37.1 billion respectively, with year-on-year changes of -23.5% and 4.7% [6]. - The gross profit margins for these sectors were at historical low levels, indicating a challenging environment [6]. - Analysts suggest that the recovery in oil prices and the ongoing domestic stimulus policies are likely to stabilize demand and improve the supply-demand balance, signaling a potential turning point for the chemical industry cycle by 2025 [6].

Core Insights - In March 2025, Hainan Province's naphtha production reached 261,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 73.6%, although the growth rate decreased by 276.3 percentage points compared to the same month last year [1] - For the first quarter of 2025, Hainan's naphtha production totaled 761,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth of 46.0%, which is a slowdown of 179.5 percentage points from the previous year [3] Production Data Analysis - March 2025 naphtha production: 261,000 tons, accounting for 3.9% of the national naphtha production of 6,744,000 tons [1] - January to March 2025 cumulative naphtha production: 761,000 tons, representing 3.8% of the national total of 1,988,500 tons [3] - The growth rate of naphtha production in Hainan is higher than the national average by 74.2 percentage points in March and 46.7 percentage points in the first quarter [1][3]

Group 1 - In the first three months of 2025, Shandong Province's petroleum coke production reached 243.8 million tons, a decrease of 16.6% compared to the same period in 2024, with a growth rate 19.6 percentage points lower than in 2024 and 12.0 percentage points lower than the national average [1] - The total petroleum coke production in the same period for the entire country was 806.3 million tons, with Shandong accounting for 30.2% of this total [1] Group 2 - In March 2025, Shandong Province's petroleum coke production was 75.5 million tons, down 20.5% from March 2024, with a growth rate 23.5 percentage points lower than in 2024 and 17.6 percentage points lower than the national average [2] - The national petroleum coke production for March 2025 was 274.1 million tons, with Shandong's contribution being 27.5% [2]

增速较上一年同期变化：高8.9个百分点 据统计，2025年3月浙江省规模以上工业企业液化石油气产量与上年同期相比增长了2.5%，达97.2万 吨，增速较上一年同期高8.9个百分点，增速较同期全国高5.3个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业液 化石油气产量451.5万吨的比重为21.5%。 详见下图： 摘要：【图】2025年3月浙江省液化石油气产量数据分析 2025年3月液化石油气产量统计： 液化石油气产量：97.2 万吨 同比增长：2.5% 同比增长：1.9% 增速较上一年同期变化：高1.4个百分点 据统计，2025年1－3月，浙江省规模以上工业企业液化石油气产量与上年同期相比增长了1.9%，达 296.7万吨，增速较上一年同期高1.4个百分点，继续保持增长，增速较同期全国高3.4个百分点，约占同 期全国规模以上企业液化石油气产量1357万吨的比重为21.9%。详见下图： 图2：浙江省液化石油气产量分月（累计值）统计图 图1：浙江省液化石油气产量分月（当月值）统计图 2025年1-3月液化石油气产量统计： 液化石油气产量：296.7 万吨 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收入 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑及价格区间 | | --- | --- | --- | | 原油 | 震荡 | 旺季预期 VS OPEC+增产，油价盘整。OPEC+持续增产，原油远月压力较大，夏季原油 | | | | 消费旺季即将到来，近月下方存支撑，关注 OPEC+本周三以及周六会议内容。SC【445-465】 | | LPG | | 仓单压制盘面，液化气走势偏弱。近期液化气仓单不断攀升，盘面受到压制；上游原油 | | | 偏弱 | 低位盘整；下游利润不佳，但对美关税下降后，进口成本下降，开工率有上升预期。PG | | | | 【4055-4095】 | | L | 偏弱 | 近期停车比例增加，供给压力阶段性缓解；但农膜需求淡季，抢出口可持续性不强，社 | | | | 库窄幅增加，基差走弱，反弹偏空。L【7000-7100】 | | PP | 偏弱 | 内需淡季，基差走弱，5-7 月即将迎来新一轮投产高峰期，基本面供需格局偏弱，向下考 | | | | 验前低支撑位，反弹偏空。PP【6800-6920】 | | PVC | 偏弱 | 电石降价，6 月台塑报价上调 20 美元/吨。成本坍塌+装置投产预期+出 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 运筹帷幄 决胜千里 宝城期货品种套利数据日报（2025 年 5 月 27 日） 一、动力煤 | 商品 | | | 动力煤（元/吨） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 日期 | 基差 | 5月-1月 | 9月-1月 | 9月-5月 | | 2025/05/26 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/23 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/22 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/21 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | | 2025/05/20 | -190.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 450 500 550 600 650 700 750 800 850 900 950 动力煤基差 基差（右） 动力煤现货价:秦皇岛 期货结算价(活跃合约) :动力煤 www.bcqhgs.com 1 ...