【冠通研究】 上涨受阻 制作日期：2025 年 7 月 3 日 【策略分析】 今日尿素盘面高开低走，日内偏强整理。昨日期货翻红后，尿素现货成交 有好转，部分工厂上调报价，但成交量一般。基本面来看，供应端本周继续检 修与复产并行，山西兰花将进行两月左右的检修，河南晋开近日也有检修计 划，日产波动幅度小，近日供给侧改革消息刺激市场对产能产量的担忧，对尿 素影响相对较小，但近期高温临检期间，日产可能有小幅减少。需求端，整体 需求弱稳，农需备货在收尾阶段，复合肥工厂开工负荷维持低位，继续去化库 存为主，目前处于秋季肥前期阶段，内需整体支撑有限。本期库存继续去化， 主要依然依赖于出口的快速集港。整体来看，昨日大宗商品均有不同程度的上 涨，盘面上涨后，现货端更近有限，需求不足，尿素价格上涨受阻，上方关注 1740 左右压力位。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2509 合约 1739 元/吨高开低走，日内偏强震荡，最终 收于 1737 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌+0.4%，持仓量 222192 手（-1691 手）。 前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-1541 手，空头-1993 手。其中，宏源期货净 多单增加 483 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the prices of single fertilizers are showing a strong upward trend, which is beneficial for compound fertilizer companies during the peak season, indicating a positive outlook for annual performance [1] - In Q2, the prices of nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium fertilizers increased compared to Q1, with urea at 1855 RMB/ton (+7.0%), diammonium phosphate at 4066 RMB/ton (+5.0%), monoammonium phosphate at 3364 RMB/ton (+6.4%), and potassium chloride at 2994 RMB/ton (+3.7%) [1] - The company has significant phosphate resources, with the Aju Luo Ga phosphate mine construction progressing smoothly, holding a total phosphate resource of approximately 549 million tons [1] Group 2 - The company’s Yingcheng base is set to produce 700,000 tons of synthetic ammonia, along with supporting production lines for 600,000 tons of water-soluble compound fertilizer, 400,000 tons of slow-release compound fertilizer, and 1.5 million tons of refined salt, with completion expected within the year [2] - The revenue forecast for the company from 2025 to 2027 is projected at 22.51 billion, 24.99 billion, and 28.06 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 10.5%, 11.0%, and 12.3% respectively [2] - The net profit forecast for the same period is expected to be 1 billion, 1.29 billion, and 1.63 billion RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.9%, 27.9%, and 26.9% respectively, leading to a corresponding PE ratio of 12, 9, and 7 times [2]

尿素日报 | 2025-07-03 农需旺季启动，尿素小幅反弹 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-07-02，尿素主力收盘1739元/吨（+18）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1780 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1790元/吨（+0）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1800元/吨（+0）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：51 元/吨（-18）；河南基差：41元/吨（-18）；江苏基差：61元/吨（-18）；尿素生产利润260元/吨（+0），出口利润901 元/吨（+10）。 风险 国内出口政策、装置检修情况、库存变动情况、农业需求情况。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 供应端：截至2025-07-02，企业产能利用率85.78%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为101.85 万吨（-7.74），港口样本 库存量为38.10 万吨（+8.60）。 需求端：截至2025-07-02，复合肥产能利用率30.11%（-1.71%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为63.21%（-1.11%）；尿素企 业预收订单天数5.36日（-0.82）。 农需旺季即将来临，北方农需旺季启动，下游采购量 ...

Production Capacity and Distribution - The company has a total compound fertilizer production capacity of 7.55 million tons, with an additional 1.3 million tons under construction [2][3] - The production bases are strategically located across various regions in China and Malaysia, including Hubei, Shandong, Henan, Sichuan, and Xinjiang [2][3] - The company has nearly 6,000 primary distributors and over 100,000 retail outlets nationwide, with ongoing expansion into Southeast Asian markets [2][3] New Fertilizer Demand and Development - The new fertilizer segment is becoming a key growth driver, supported by agricultural green transformation and policy backing [3][4] - The company is developing 1.3 million tons of new fertilizer capacity in Hubei and Shandong, expected to enhance production scale and profit margins [3][4] - Recent innovations include new products such as water-soluble monoammonium phosphate and high-concentration liquid potassium-phosphorus fertilizers [3][4] Phosphate Fertilizer Composition and Profitability - The phosphate fertilizer products mainly consist of fertilizer-grade and industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate, with the latter entirely sold externally [4] - The company’s phosphate fertilizer business is projected to grow significantly due to increasing demand in agriculture, fire safety, and new energy materials [4] Phosphate Mining Progress and Impact - The company owns three phosphate mines in Sichuan, with ongoing construction of a 2.9 million tons/year mining project [5] - The mining projects aim to ensure stable raw material supply and reduce production costs, enhancing market competitiveness [5] Synthetic Ammonia Project Development - The company is constructing a 700,000 tons synthetic ammonia project, which is expected to meet nitrogen fertilizer raw material needs and lower overall costs [5] - The project will also expand production capacity and optimize the industrial structure, providing strong support for sustainable development [5]

Morning session notice 更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2025 年 7 月 2 日星期三 研究员： 吴志桥 从业资格：F3085283 交易咨询资格：Z0019267 联系方式：15000295386 | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | 推荐理由 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 【行情复盘】 | 周二尿素主力合约 | 2509 | 期价上涨 | 6 | 元至 | 1721 | 元/吨，华中主流地区尿素现货价格稳 | | | | | 定在 | 1780 | 元/吨，多头持仓增加 | 12489 | 手至 | 17.79 | 万手，空头持仓增加 | 11313 | 手至 | 19.43 | 万手。 | | 【重要资讯】 | 1、供应方面，尿素行业日产 | 19.86 | 万吨，较上一工作日减少 | 0.12 | 万吨，较去年同 | | | | | | | 期增加 | 2.91 | 万吨；开 ...

Core Viewpoint - The potassium fertilizer market is experiencing a price increase due to the signing of large contracts and a shortage of supply, with domestic prices approaching earlier highs in 2023 [1] Price Trends - As of late June, the benchmark ex-factory price for domestic salt lake potassium chloride (60% KCl) is 2700 CNY per ton, an increase of 100 CNY per ton from the previous month, nearing the year's high points from February and March [1] - The market price for potassium fertilizer in Laos has also risen, reaching approximately 3150 CNY per ton by the end of June, which is an increase of over 150 CNY per ton prior to the signing of large contracts [1] - Some distributors are quoting prices as high as 3350 CNY per ton, matching the year's peak [1]

Market Overview and Quotes Review - On June 30, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated and declined, closing at 1,712 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1,727 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1,701 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 218,000 lots, and the open interest was 224,000 lots [2]. - The latest price of the urea 2508 contract was 1,721 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan or 0.98%, with an open interest of 850 lots, an increase of 29 lots, and a trading volume of 224 lots. The latest price of the urea 2509 contract was 1,712 yuan/ton, down 11 yuan or 0.64%, with an open interest of 223,700 lots, an increase of 1,164 lots, and a trading volume of 218,328 lots [5]. - The overall price of urea in major regions remained stable. The representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1,830 yuan/ton, Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1,700 yuan/ton, Ruixing Group in East China at 1,770 yuan/ton, and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1,780 yuan/ton [5]. Analysis of Influencing Factors - Overseas: India's RCF issued a urea import tender plan with a procurement target of 2 million tons, with 1 million tons allocated to each of the east and west coasts. The tender will open on July 7, be valid until July 17, and the final shipping deadline is set for August 22 [8]. - Policy: To promote the export self - discipline of circulation enterprises, the industry association coordinated to add a port legal inspection link, which is implemented by three state - owned enterprises: China National Agricultural Means of Production Group, Sinochem Fertilizer, and China National Chemical Construction. It supplements the origin legal inspection system [10]. - Demand: The end of the Israel - Palestine conflict led to the消退 of its market impact, and the international urea price significantly回调. However, due to the large price difference between domestic and foreign markets and India's new tender, it supported the domestic market sentiment. Domestically, the enthusiasm for compound fertilizer production in Central and North China was low, and the grass - roots market was resistant to high - priced goods. The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises declined from the high level, and their raw material procurement willingness was weak [10]. - Supply: The operating rate and daily output of the urea industry reached peak values in recent years, and the inventory showed small fluctuations. On the demand side, the operating rates of compound fertilizer and melamine in industrial demand continued to decline, and the agricultural demand expectation weakened again. The oversupply pattern in the urea market was still significant [10]. Conclusion and Outlook - India's large - scale tender will boost the market sentiment in the short term, and domestic policies guide self - disciplined exports. With the decline of international urea prices, weak domestic industrial and agricultural demand, and continuous high supply, the oversupply pattern in the urea market is significant. The contradiction between high supply and weak demand is prominent, and export profit is the key variable. It is expected that the domestic urea price will face upward pressure in the short term and may continue to operate weakly [8].

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View of the Report The urea market has weak domestic demand, with downstream purchasing sentiment lacking and upstream factory quotes mostly stable or declining. The supply side has ongoing maintenance and restarts, with little fluctuation in daily production. Exports to ports are relieving upstream pressure, and enterprise inventories are expected to continue to decline. The demand side shows reduced agricultural purchasing willingness and decreased purchases by suppliers and compound fertilizer factories. Although the inventory has decreased this period due to port inspections and exports, the overall market is expected to be mainly in a consolidation phase, waiting for new market drivers [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The urea futures market opened low and moved lower during the day, with pressure, but rebounded at the end of the session. The fundamental situation is weakly stable, with support from the end of summer fertilizer sales and export shipments, but weakening downstream demand restricts upward movement. The market is expected to consolidate [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The main urea 2509 contract opened at 1707 yuan/ton, closed at 1721 yuan/ton, up 0.35%. The trading volume was 238,027 lots, an increase of 14,327 lots. Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 10,790 lots and short positions increased by 8,663 lots [2]. - Spot: Domestic demand is weak, downstream purchasing sentiment is low, and upstream factory quotes are mostly stable or declining. The mainstream ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1720 - 1750 yuan/ton [5]. Warehouse Receipts - On July 1, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 500, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotes declined, and the futures closing price increased. Based on Shandong, the basis for the September contract was 59 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [8]. - Supply: On July 1, 2025, the national daily urea production was 196,000 tons, unchanged from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.74% [10].

尿素产业日报 2025-07-01 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 郑州尿素主力合约收盘价(日,元/吨) | 1721 | 9 郑州尿素9-1价差(日,元/吨) | 39 | 9 4468 | | | 郑州尿素主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 238027 | 14327 郑州尿素前20名净持仓 | -16392 | | | | 郑州尿素交易所仓单(日,张) | 500 | 0 | | | | 现货市场 | 河北(日,元/吨) | 1800 | 0 河南(日,元/吨) | 1780 | -20 | | | 江苏(日,元/吨) | 1810 | -10 山东(日,元/吨) | 1790 | -10 | | | 安徽(日,元/吨) | 1810 | 0 郑州尿素主力合约基差(日,元/吨) | 69 | -19 | | | FOB波罗的海(日,美元/吨) | 425 | 0 FOB中国主港(日,美元/吨) | 405 | 0 | | 产业情况 | 港口库存(周,万吨) | 38 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance and valuation of Yara International, noting its stock price increase and market capitalization [1] - As of July 1, Yara International's closing price was 30.93 yuan, with a rolling PE ratio of 22.80 times and a total market value of 28.581 billion yuan [1] - The average PE ratio for the fertilizer industry is 24.89 times, with a median of 22.78 times, positioning Yara International at 16th place within the industry [1][2] Group 2 - As of the first quarter of 2025, 34 institutions held shares in Yara International, including 25 funds, 8 other entities, and 1 social security fund, totaling 445.682 million shares with a market value of 10.884 billion yuan [1] - Yara International's main business involves potassium salt mining, potassium fertilizer production, and sales, with primary products including potassium chloride and brine [1] - The latest performance report for the first quarter of 2025 shows Yara International achieved an operating income of 1.213 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 91.47%, and a net profit of 384 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 373.53%, with a gross profit margin of 54.12% [1]