Core Viewpoint - The development of a strong energy nation is crucial for China's economic and social progress, emphasizing the need for comprehensive enhancement of energy technology, industrial chains, and system capabilities to boost international competitiveness and support sustainable development [1]. Group 1: New Energy System Construction - The new energy system is the main focus in building a strong energy nation, with a shift from top-level design to comprehensive construction during the "14th Five-Year Plan" and "15th Five-Year Plan" periods [2]. - The goal is to significantly increase the share of non-fossil energy, with plans to add over 20 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity annually by 2026 [2]. - The development of clean energy sources such as wind, solar, hydro, and nuclear power will be prioritized, while also promoting biomass, geothermal, and marine energy as supplementary sources [2]. Group 2: Clean Utilization of Fossil Energy - The transition to cleaner and more efficient use of fossil energy is essential during the transitional period, with coal power being upgraded to serve as a flexible and stable backup for renewable energy [3]. - By 2026, initiatives will be implemented to enhance coal power's low-carbon development through technology upgrades and innovative mechanisms [3]. - A new electric power system will be established to ensure efficient distribution and utilization of clean energy, including the construction of high-voltage lines and smart grids [3]. Group 3: Challenges in New Energy Development - The rapid growth of new energy capacity has led to challenges in the power system, including difficulties in transmitting green electricity from western regions to eastern cities and the volatility of renewable energy generation [6]. - The National Energy Administration aims to promote integrated development of new energy by 2030, enhancing reliability and market competitiveness [6][7]. - The optimization of power system regulation capabilities is crucial, with a goal to significantly improve these capabilities by 2027 to support the integration of over 20 million kilowatts of new energy annually [8]. Group 4: Coal Consumption Trends - Coal consumption in China has shown signs of decline, with a negative growth rate for the first time since 2017, but short-term demand is expected to remain resilient due to the need for coal in power generation and chemical industries [10]. - The long-term trend indicates a gradual reduction in coal consumption as part of the carbon peak strategy, with coal's role shifting from a primary energy source to a backup energy source [11]. - The integration of coal and new energy is emphasized, with initiatives to develop renewable energy in coal-producing regions and promote clean energy alternatives [11][12]. Group 5: Future Energy Technologies - The "15th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of future industries such as hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, which are seen as key components for ensuring energy security and sustainable development [14]. - Hydrogen energy is recognized for its potential but faces challenges in achieving market competitiveness due to a lack of sufficient application scenarios [15]. - The development of nuclear fusion is positioned as a long-term goal, with significant investments and research needed to overcome technical and commercial hurdles [16]. Group 6: Overall Energy Strategy - Building a strong energy nation is a strategic task for the "15th Five-Year Plan" and is essential for China's modernization efforts, requiring collaboration among government, enterprises, and society [17].

Core Viewpoint - The development of a strong energy nation is crucial for China's economic and social progress, emphasizing the need for comprehensive enhancement of energy technology, industrial chains, and system capabilities to boost international competitiveness and support sustainable development [1]. Group 1: New Energy System Construction - The new energy system is the main focus in building a strong energy nation, with a shift from top-level design to comprehensive construction during the "15th Five-Year Plan" period [2]. - The goal is to significantly increase the share of non-fossil energy, with plans to add over 200 million kilowatts of wind and solar power capacity annually by 2026 [2]. - The integration of various energy sources, including biomass, geothermal, and marine energy, will complement the new energy system [2]. Group 2: Clean and Efficient Use of Fossil Energy - The transition to cleaner and more flexible coal power is essential during the transition period, with coal power expected to act as a stabilizer for energy supply [3]. - By 2026, efforts will focus on upgrading coal power technology and promoting carbon capture and utilization in the oil and gas sector [3]. - The construction of a new power system will require the establishment of high-voltage lines and smart grids to ensure efficient energy distribution [3]. Group 3: Overcoming Bottlenecks in New Energy Development - China aims to lead global energy transformation, with a target of achieving six times the wind and solar power capacity by 2035 compared to 2020 levels [5]. - Challenges such as the inability to transmit green electricity from western regions to eastern cities and the volatility of renewable energy generation need to be addressed [6]. - The focus will shift from simple capacity expansion to system collaboration and value creation in new energy development [6]. Group 4: Coal Consumption Trends - Coal consumption in China has shown signs of decline, with a negative growth rate for the first time since 2017, but short-term demand is expected to remain resilient [9]. - The long-term trend indicates a gradual reduction in coal consumption, with a peak expected around 2027, after which a more significant decline is anticipated [10]. - The integration of coal and new energy is essential for the sustainable development of the coal industry, with initiatives to develop renewable energy in coal mining areas [11]. Group 5: Future Industry Development - The "15th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the need to cultivate future industries such as hydrogen energy and nuclear fusion, which are critical for energy security and sustainable development [14]. - Hydrogen energy is seen as a key component of the future energy system, with efforts to support pilot projects and promote large-scale applications [15]. - Nuclear fusion is positioned as a long-term solution for energy challenges, with significant investments and research needed to overcome commercialization hurdles [16][17].

分析师：徐驰 执业证书编号：S0740519080003 如何看待商品行情的大幅波动？ 报告摘要 如何看待商品行情的大幅波动？ 相关报告 本周 A 股市场整体呈现高位震荡回落格局，成交维持高位但赚钱效应明显走弱。从 指数表现看，市场结构分化显著：主要宽基指数多数下跌，其中上证指数本周下跌 0.44%，深证成指下跌 1.62%，创业板指基本持平（-0.09%）。从成交情况看，市 场交投依然活跃。本周万得全 A 日均成交额约 3.06 万亿元，较上周提升约 9.44%， 显示尽管指数承压，但增量资金并未明显撤离，市场流动性基础仍然稳固。从赚钱效 应看，本周市场情绪明显降温。全周日均上涨家数占比仅为 34.80%，较上周大幅回 落，个股层面呈现"跌多涨少"的特征。 Email：xuchi@zts.com.cn 分析师：张文宇 执业证书编号：S0740520120003 Email：zhangwy01@zts.com.cn 证券研究报告/策略定期报告 2026 年 01 月 31 日 本周 A 股大宗商品相关板块表现强势，成为周度涨幅靠前的核心主线，但内部分化 与波动显著放大。从申万一级行业周度涨幅来看，石油石化（7 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the coal industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment opportunities in this sector [5]. Core Insights - The report highlights a favorable supply-demand dynamic in the coal market, with expectations of stable to increasing coal prices due to ongoing high demand and tightening supply conditions [7][8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of strategic investments in coal companies with strong dividend yields and low valuations, particularly in light of the anticipated recovery in coal prices [8]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The coal industry comprises 37 listed companies with a total market capitalization of approximately 19,847.47 billion yuan and a circulating market value of about 19,430.80 billion yuan [2]. 2. Company Performance Tracking - Key companies such as China Shenhua, Shanxi Coking Coal, and Yancoal Energy are highlighted for their robust operational performance and strategic growth plans [12][13]. - China Shenhua is expected to achieve a net profit of 495-545 billion yuan in 2025, while Shanxi Coking Coal anticipates a significant decline in profits due to market pressures [8]. 3. Coal Price Tracking - The report notes that the price of thermal coal at the port has seen a slight increase, with the average price at the Qinhuangdao port reported at 698 yuan per ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 8 yuan [8]. - The international coal price has also risen, with Newcastle coal futures closing at 111.75 USD per ton, marking a daily increase of 2.43% [8]. 4. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that the daily coal consumption across 25 provinces in China reached 6.648 million tons, showing a year-on-year increase of 36.48% [8]. - Supply constraints are expected as many private coal mines prepare for seasonal shutdowns, leading to a reduction in overall coal supply [8]. 5. Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong dividend policies and growth potential, such as China Shenhua, Yancoal Energy, and others, which are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery in coal prices [8][12]. - It also highlights the potential for companies like Lu'an Huanneng and Pingmei Shenma to rebound as market conditions improve [8].

陈张滢（黑色建材组） 0755-23375161 chenzy@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03098415 交易咨询号：Z0020771 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 商品市场情绪短期受到压制，双焦 盘面预计继续呈现震荡走势 双焦周报 2026/01/31 04 供给及需求 02 期现市场 05 库存 03 持仓及品种比价 图1： 焦煤加权指数价格走势（元/吨，日线） 资料来源：文华财经，五矿期货研究中心 01 周度评估及策略推荐 行情回顾 上周，焦煤盘面价格延续宽幅震荡的走势，周度涨幅0.5元/吨或+0.04%（针对加权指数，下同）。驱动方面，本周最突出的是商品市场的剧 烈波动，包括金银持续创下新高后的高位跳水，而触发这一切的根源或在于新任命的美联储主席凯文·沃什所引发的市场对于分母端边际转 紧的预期。此外，此前强势的碳酸锂也出现大幅回落，整体压制着商品整体情绪。但黑色板块方面，房地产"三道红线"的放松、万科债务 问题顺利展期等使其短期具有自身在情绪上的呵护。技术形态角度，焦煤盘面仍处于日线级别的反弹周期中，下方关注1100元/吨附近支撑， 上方继续关注1260元/吨附近压力位置（2 ...

（来源： 总台中国之声） 国家能源局 国家能源局微信公众号是国家能源局新闻宣传、信息公开、服务群众的重要平台。 国家能源局1月30日发布，2025年我国绿色低碳转型步伐加快，可再生能源发电量达到约4万亿千 瓦时。 数据显示，2025年，我国原煤生产保持稳定，规上工业原煤产量同比增长1.2%。油、气产量双创 历史新高，规上工业原油产量同比增长1.5%，规上工业天然气产量同比增长6.2%。 国家能源局发展规划司副司长邢翼腾： 全年风电光伏新增装机超过4.3亿千瓦、累计装机规模突破 18亿千瓦，可再生能源发电装机占比超过六成。可再生能源发电量达到约4万亿千瓦时，超过欧盟 27国用电量之和（约3.8万亿千瓦时）。 今年度冬期间北方地区冷空气活跃度加剧，出现多轮阶段性强寒潮天气。 国家能源局电力司副司长 刘明阳强调， 目前，全国燃料储备充足、电力供应平稳。 刘明阳： 目前，全国统调电厂燃料供应基础坚实可靠，东北等重点保暖地区电厂存煤超25天；国 内成品油市场供应充足，库存稳定，国产气和进口管道气相对高位平 稳运行，地下储气库和沿海 LNG接收站调节能力充足，可保障迎峰度冬天然气供应。 （韩萌） 了解更多能源动态,请长按 ...

Group 1: A-Share Market Analysis - The A-share market showed a volatile trend this week, with an average daily trading volume of 3.06 trillion, a week-on-week increase of 9.44%[6] - Major indices like the Shanghai 50 and CSI A100 recorded positive returns, while the Shanghai Composite and Shenzhen Component indices experienced declines[6] - Value and large-cap growth sectors performed relatively well, whereas small-cap indices such as CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 saw significant drops[6] - Cyclical sectors like oil, telecommunications, coal, and non-ferrous metals outperformed, while growth sectors including computers and new energy faced larger declines[6] Group 2: Market Insights and Expectations - The A-share market displayed structural characteristics and volatility, with gold stocks experiencing a collective pullback due to fluctuations in international gold prices[6] - AI and technology growth stocks continued to attract capital, as evidenced by the strong performance of the Sci-Tech 50 index, indicating a favorable investment logic in growth sectors[6] - Short-term market conditions are expected to remain structurally volatile, with potential pullback pressures on previously strong cyclical sectors lacking sustained catalysts[7] - The upcoming period post-Spring Festival until the Two Sessions is anticipated to be a more certain upward phase for the market, suggesting strategic positioning opportunities[7] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong market performed strongly this week, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 2.38% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increasing by 1.71%[8] - The Hang Seng Technology Index saw a slight decline of 1.38%, indicating volatility within the tech sector[8] - Leading sectors included energy (7.44%), real estate and construction (5.71%), and finance (5.3%), while information technology and healthcare experienced minor declines[8] Group 4: Future Outlook and Risks - The Hong Kong market is expected to continue its structural upward trend, supported by Fed rate cut expectations and improving sentiment in the A-share market[9] - Sustained demand for AI is likely to benefit the tech sector in Hong Kong, although investors should remain cautious of external policy uncertainties[9] - A prudent asset allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on high-dividend assets and sectors with both profitability improvement and growth potential[9] - Risks include unexpected tightening of global liquidity and complexities in market dynamics and policy changes[10]

新修订的《煤矿安全规程》2月1日起施行。 新修订的《煤矿安全规程》2月1日起施行。规程首次明确低瓦斯矿井瓦斯异常防范要求，将五类灾害等级鉴定纳入安全检测范畴，同 时，强化煤矿技术负责人配备，为行业安全监管提供全新依据。 《煤矿安全规程》是煤矿安全生产行为的基本准则，也是煤矿安全监管监察执法、煤炭行业管理的主要依据。新《规程》将瓦斯等级、 冲击地压和煤层自燃倾向性、煤尘爆炸性、露天煤矿滑坡危险性等五类灾害的等级鉴定纳入安全检测检验范畴。 针对低瓦斯矿井的安全管理，新《规程》也首次作出强制性规定，要求其必须建立瓦斯异常防范制度。瓦斯排放需按浓度分级管控，确 保煤矿安全生产。 新《规程》还要求煤矿企业必须配备技术负责人，不同灾害类型的煤矿还应当分别配备相应的副总工程师。 来源：央视新闻客户端 欢迎分享给你的朋友！ 出品 | 中国能源报（c ne ne rgy） 编辑丨赵方婷 End ...

根据公告，中国神华拟发行A股股份及支付现金购买控股股东国家能源投资集团旗下12家核心企业股 权，并于A股募集配套资金。公司已于1月30日收到上海证券交易所出具的《关于受理中国神华能源股 份有限公司发行股份购买资产并募集配套资金申请的通知》。上海证券交易所依据相关规定对申请文件 进行了核对，认为该项申请文件齐备，符合法定形式，决定予以受理并依法进行审核。 值得注意的是，此次交易备受市场关注，不仅因其涉及千亿量级的资产规模，更因其有望成为上海证券 交易所简易审核程序的首个适用案例。 新华财经北京1月31日电（记者沈寅飞）中国神华31日发布公告称，发行股份及支付现金购买资产并募 集配套资金暨关联交易的申请文件，获得上海证券交易所受理。 业内人士指出，简易程序体现了分类监管、精准监管的现代监管理念。对于运作规范、信息披露充分的 优质企业来说，这种审核效率提升尤为显著。 中国神华相关负责人表示，中国神华本次重组是国家能源集团内部煤炭及相关资产的专业化整合，旨在 构建更完整的产业链闭环，解决长期存在的同业竞争问题。简易程序的应用，将使这类符合国家战略方 向的整合更为顺畅高效。 （文章来源：新华财经） 根据《上海证券交易所 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the coal sector, with specific recommendations for several companies [2][3]. Core Insights - Coal prices have stabilized and rebounded slightly before the holiday, with expectations for a stronger market post-holiday. Supply has tightened due to the upcoming holiday and production targets being met, while demand has increased due to cold weather affecting power plant consumption [10][11]. - The report forecasts that coal prices may return to a seasonal fluctuation range of 750-1000 RMB/ton, driven by domestic capacity reductions and a significant decrease in Indonesia's production targets for 2026 [10][11]. - Investment recommendations focus on companies with high spot market exposure and strong balance sheets, particularly those in Shanxi province, which are less affected by production limits [10][15]. Summary by Sections Company Earnings Forecasts, Valuation, and Ratings - Recommended companies include: - Jin控煤业 (Jin控 Coal Industry): EPS forecast of 1.68 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 9 [2]. - 山煤国际 (Shan Coal International): EPS forecast of 1.14 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 潞安环能 (Luan Environmental Energy): EPS forecast of 0.82 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 17 [2]. - 华阳股份 (Huayang Co.): EPS forecast of 0.62 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 15 [2]. - 兖矿能源 (Yankuang Energy): EPS forecast of 1.44 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 中国神华 (China Shenhua): EPS forecast of 2.95 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 14 [2]. - 陕西煤业 (Shaanxi Coal): EPS forecast of 2.31 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 10 [2]. - 中煤能源 (China Coal Energy): EPS forecast of 1.46 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 9 [2]. - 中广核矿业 (CGN Mining): EPS forecast of 0.04 HKD for 2024, with a PE ratio of 113 [2]. - 新集能源 (Xinjie Energy): EPS forecast of 0.92 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 8 [2]. - 淮北矿业 (Huaibei Mining): EPS forecast of 1.80 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 7 [2]. - 兰花科创 (Lanhua Sci-Tech): EPS forecast of 0.49 RMB for 2024, with a PE ratio of 13 [2]. Market Performance - The coal sector has outperformed the broader market, with a weekly increase of 4.0% compared to a 0.1% increase in the CSI 300 index [17][20]. - Notable performers include 陕西黑猫 (Shaanxi Black Cat) with a 14.50% increase and 盘江股份 (Panjiang Coal) with a 13.25% increase [23][24]. Industry Dynamics - The report highlights a tightening supply due to production limits and increased demand from power plants, leading to a potential price increase in the coal market [10][11]. - The focus on high dividend yield companies is emphasized as a defensive strategy amid uncertain international conditions [11].