2025 年 05 月 06 日 双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 市场情绪：60 分（较热） 最近一年大盘走势 20 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（较热） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 60 分，市场情绪处于"较热"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：跨境支付、虚拟电厂、免税主题 1、跨境支付主题：中国央行等印发《上海国际金融中心 进一步提升跨境金融服务便利化行动方案》。主要内容提 到，跨境清算公司增强与金融机构协同联动，共同提升对 "走出去"企业的服务水平。推动更多银行加入 CIPS，持续 扩大 CIPS 网络覆盖范围。相关标的：跨境通（002640）、青 岛金王（002094） 2、虚拟电厂主题：近日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局 发布《关于加快推进虚拟电厂发展的指导意见》。其中提 到，到 2027 年，虚拟电厂建设运行管理机制成熟规范，参与 电力市场的机制健全完善， ...

Group 1 - The core investment focus for April is on three sectors: robotics, semiconductor self-sufficiency, and cross-border payments, with robotics being the best-performing technology sector due to advancements in Tesla's Optimus production and emerging domestic commercialization cases [1] - The semiconductor sector is benefiting from changes in "integrated circuit" origin regulations in China, which may impact US IDM manufacturers due to tariff implications, while domestic semiconductor companies, particularly in analog and RF chips, are expected to gain advantages [1] - The importance of cross-border payments is increasing, reflecting a shift in investment priorities [1] Group 2 - Uncertainties surrounding overseas AI chip exports are rising, with Nvidia announcing that it must obtain export licenses for certain integrated circuits to China and other regions, potentially incurring costs up to $5.5 billion related to inventory write-downs and procurement commitments [2] Group 3 - Google and Microsoft are significantly increasing their capital expenditures on AI infrastructure, with Google's Q1 capital spending reaching $17.2 billion, up from $12 billion year-on-year, and Microsoft projecting its FY2025 capital expenditures to exceed $80 billion [3] Group 4 - Major advancements in AI models are being made, with Alibaba releasing the Qwen3 model, ByteDance launching the Doubao 1.5 model, and Xiaomi introducing the MiMo model, which demonstrates superior reasoning capabilities compared to larger models from competitors [4]

全球跨境支付模式主要包括代理行模式、互联模式、单一平台模式以及点对点模式四大类，基于SWIFT的代理行模式在跨境支付中占据 主导地位。关税博弈背景下，人民币跨境支付系统（CIPS）、数字人民币与货币桥等跨境支付相关体系各环节或将迎来发展机遇。 如何看待跨境支付现状及未来趋势？中信建投证券计算机首席应瑛团队、宏观首席周君芝团队带来【跨境支付产业链】投资机遇解读： 01 如何看待跨境支付现状及未来趋势？ 全球跨境支付模式主要包括代理行模式、互联模式、单一平台模式以及点对点模式四大类，基于SWIFT的代理行模式在跨境支付中占据 主导地位。SWIFT已成为全球覆盖面最广、使用频率最高的金融通讯基础设施，但资金流与信息流"双轨制"以及治理结构导致弱势中心 化，逐步沦为美国金融制裁工具。 未来的发展路径主要包括：1）基于SWIFT体系，打造以本币为结算货币的支付系统。2）基于本国支 付体系，通过单边连接或者双边连接等方式，拓展延伸覆盖范围。3）第三方支付以移动支付场景为切入口，构建独立的支付网络体系。 4）基于区块链技术，全新构建基于数币以及货币桥的支付体系。 传统模式 CHINA SECURITIES 投据来源:会融咨 ...

在这场2000万亿元市场的竞赛中，合规是入场券，技术是加速器，而全球化视野是最终胜出的密码。 跨境支付概念近期坐上"过山车"。Wind数据显示，跨境支付指数自4月8日～4月22日迅速上涨，从1269 点上涨至1500点上方，区间涨幅超15%。4月24日开始至今，又回调至1445点附近。 热门概念股表现也震荡。以拉卡拉（300773.SZ）为例，该股4月8日股价最低下挫至13.95元/股，随后震 荡上行，4月22日一度触及29.99元/股高点。截至4月30日收盘，拉卡拉报收21.21元/股。此外，新晨科 技（300542.SZ）、高伟达（300465.SZ）、信雅达（600571.SH）、海联金汇（002537.SZ）等多只"跨 境支付概念股"也高度活跃。 跨境支付指数14天暴涨超15%又迅速回调背后，一场关税冲击下的跨境支付行业变局正在上演。短期来 看，跨境支付行业面临关税政策带来的压力——合规成本增加、短期内跨境支付笔数和金额可能减少。 中长期来看，人民币国际化进程加速与全球供应链重构或为跨境支付企业打开新的增长空间，行业洗牌 已悄然开启。 跨境支付指数大幅波动 跨境支付板块的行情波动绝非偶然，其背后是政策 ...

作者 曾刚 近年来，跨境电商作为全球贸易的重要组成部分，展现出强劲的发展势头，极大地推动了国际贸易的数 字化转型。然而，随着国际贸易环境的变化，跨境电商的发展也面临着诸多挑战。经贸摩擦加剧、地缘 政治紧张局势升级、全球经济复苏乏力等因素，使得跨境电商企业在物流、供应链、市场准入等方面遭 遇更多不确定性。在复杂多变的经贸背景下，跨境支付机构作为跨境电商的重要支撑环节，扮演着愈发 重要的角色。它们不仅为企业提供了高效、安全的支付解决方案，还帮助企业应对资金结算、税务合 规、汇率管理等多重挑战，为跨境电商的发展注入了新的动力。 跨境支付在跨境电商中的关键作用 跨境支付是跨境电商交易链条中的核心环节之一，其主要功能包括货币兑换、资金结算、支付安全保障 等。作为连接全球消费者与商家的重要桥梁，跨境支付的效率、成本和安全性直接影响跨境电商的交易 体验和运营效率，在提升交易效率、降低交易成本、保障交易安全以及优化用户体验等方面发挥着不可 替代的作用。 一是提升交易效率。传统跨境支付方式如银行电汇，通常需要较长的处理时间，可能导致交易周期延 长，影响跨境电商的运营效率。跨境支付机构通过技术手段和全球化的支付网络，能够快速完成 ...

Core Insights - The report indicates that the current market sentiment score is 62, categorizing it as "relatively hot," suggesting a positive outlook for the market [6][10]. - Recent policy support and improved market sentiment have led to an upward trend in the market, with historical data showing that a sentiment score below 30 provides support, while above 90 indicates resistance [10]. Theme Tracking - **Cross-Border Payment**: The People's Bank of China has issued a plan to enhance cross-border financial services, aiming to improve service levels for enterprises going abroad. Related stocks include Cross-Border Communication (002640) and Qingdao Jinwang (002094) [7]. - **Virtual Power Plants**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the National Energy Administration have released guidelines to advance virtual power plant development, targeting a capacity of over 20 million kilowatts by 2027 and 50 million kilowatts by 2030. Related stocks include Guoneng Rixin (301162) and Kehua Data (002335) [7]. - **Duty-Free Theme**: The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have announced measures to optimize the departure tax refund policy, aiming to enhance inbound consumption. Related stocks include China Duty Free (601888) and Wangfujing (600859) [7]. Market Capital Flow - The report lists the top ten stocks with the highest net inflow of funds, with Liou Co., Ltd. (002131) leading at 884.26 million yuan, followed by Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) at 581.87 million yuan [11][12]. - The report also highlights the top ten stocks with the highest net outflow, with Shenghong Technology (300476) showing a net outflow of -389.52 million yuan, followed by Huayin Power (600744) at -387.68 million yuan [13][23]. Industry Overview - The report provides insights into the net inflow and outflow of funds across various industries, indicating that the machinery and home appliance sectors have seen significant net inflows, while the public utilities and food and beverage sectors have experienced notable net outflows [17][18].

品牌出海升温。 粤港澳大湾区的外贸企业正在全球贸易变局中展现出强大的市场适应能力。从风靡中东市场的双陆棋，到欧美热销的珍宝盒，再到畅销全球的电池产 品，"中国制造"不断拓展着国际市场空间。 伴随着跨境电商的快速发展，企业对国际支付结算服务的需求与日俱增。面对复杂多变的市场环境，跨境支付面临哪些具体挑战？数字化技术能提供怎样的 解决方案？第一财经记者近日深入调研大湾区外贸企业和支付服务机构，试图寻找这些问题的答案。 （大湾区外贸企业的出海展品。摄影 /王方然） 跨境支付需求更多元 "关税政策变化使得跨境支付合规成本增加。"一名业内人士指出，跨境支付机构需加强对交易背景、资金来源等的审核，以确保交易符合关税政策及相关法 律法规。 支付是贸易的基础设施。近年，在我国对外贸易高速发展及复杂的贸易背景下，部分进出口企业在资金收付兑的过程中面临着汇率损失、到账慢、提现慢等 问题。多位受访人士对记者表示，跨境支付面临着合规、成本与效率的"三角平衡"挑战。 在跨境贸易的赛道上，支付就像接力赛的最后一棒，支付效率决定着整个交易流程的成败。跨境物流和商旅等时效敏感领域，支付效率直接影响企业的运营 成本和客户体验。 费率问题是跨境 ...

双融日报 --鑫融讯 分析师：万蓉 S1050511020001 wanrong@cfsc.com.cn 2025 年 04 月 29 日 市场情绪：48 分（中性） 最近一年大盘走势 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 (%) 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 ▌ 华鑫市场情绪温度指标：（中性） 华鑫市场情绪温度指标显示，昨日市场情绪综合评分为 48 分，市场情绪处于"中性"。历史市场情绪趋势变化可参 考图表 1。 ▌ 热点主题追踪 今日热点主题：跨境支付、虚拟电厂、免税主题 1、跨境支付主题：中国央行等印发《上海国际金融中心 进一步提升跨境金融服务便利化行动方案》。主要内容提 到，跨境清算公司增强与金融机构协同联动，共同提升对 "走出去"企业的服务水平。推动更多银行加入 CIPS，持续 扩大 CIPS 网络覆盖范围。相关标的：跨境通（002640）、青 岛金王（002094） 2、虚拟电厂主题：近日，国家发展改革委、国家能源局 发布《关于加快推进虚拟电厂发展的指导意见》。其中提 到，到 2027 年，虚拟电厂建设运行管理机制成熟规范，参与 电力市场的机制健全完善，全国虚拟 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has adjusted the A-share market holiday schedule, with the market closed from May 1, 2025, to May 5, 2025, for a total of 5 days, resuming normal trading on May 6, 2025 [1] - There is a suggestion for increasing the daily trading hours of the A-share market and making holiday arrangements more scientific, indicating a need for reform in trading schedules [1] Group 2 - Market sentiment remains positive despite the index performance, with more stocks rising than falling daily, particularly in core sectors like electricity and finance (banking and cross-border payments) [3] - The banking sector is reaching new highs, and the electricity sector is experiencing significant gains, indicating a strong focus of funds on these performance lines as earnings reports are released [3] Group 3 - The current index is experiencing a back-and-forth movement around the 3300-point level, with a need for a pullback to accumulate more upward momentum for future growth [5] - The pullback is not seen as the end of the rebound but rather a necessary adjustment for stronger upward movement, with expectations for the index to fully recover above 3300 points after this adjustment [5] Group 4 - The three major A-share indices showed mixed results, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.07% and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.39% [7] - The index is expected to face adjustments next week, with support likely above 3200 points, and a collective rebound anticipated in the following weeks, presenting opportunities for low-positioning strategies [7]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index is expected to have short-term entry opportunities tomorrow, but no medium-term opportunities until after the May Day holiday [1] - The index closed at 3288, with a support level at 3262, indicating potential upward movement despite a recent top formation [1][2] Technical Analysis - The market is currently in a downward oscillation from the peak of 360074, without completing a reversal [2] - Key resistance is at 3319, while support remains at 3262, with a focus on the 30-minute chart for potential buying opportunities [2] - The 5-minute chart indicates a need for a pullback before any upward movement can be confirmed [2] Sector Performance - The ChiNext Index is showing a different trend, with a continued pullback and a need for confirmation of upward movement [3] - Most sectors are experiencing declines, with notable drops in cross-border payments, communication equipment, and general equipment [3][4] - The software development sector saw a significant outflow of capital, indicating bearish sentiment [4] Market Sentiment - The market sentiment is negative, with 48 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 77 hitting the limit down, suggesting a lack of strong buying interest [4] - The number of stocks with declines exceeding 7% is concerning, with nearly 200 stocks affected, indicating a cautious approach for investors [4]