证券研究报告——造纸行业周报 废纸成本支撑，原纸涨价落地 【2025.11.24-2025.11.30】 行业评级：看好 核心观点 风险提示 需求不及预期风险，原材料价格波动风险，政策落地偏差风险。 请务必阅读最后一页免责声明 今年三季度以来，包装纸价格接连上涨，进入四季度后，又有多家纸企开启新一轮提价。 近日，央视财经频道推出纸价上涨专题报道，指出包装纸价格涨幅已达 25%以上，产业链上 下游企业正通过各种方式，积极应对成本压力。 1 分析师：杨素婷 执业证书编号：S0770524020002 邮箱：yangst@dtsbc.com.cn 研究助理：温慧 执业证书编号：S0770125070012 邮箱：wenh@dtsbc.com.cn 西世贸中心 A 座 F12、F13 网址:http://www.dtsbc.com.cn 发布日期：2025.12.01 造纸行情走势图 包装纸涨价潮深化，全产业链传导顺畅：本周各企业涨价接续 落地，三季度以来累计涨幅超 25%，多家纸企密集上调白卡纸、 瓦楞纸等价格 50-200 元/吨。终端价格同步走强，箱板纸、瓦 楞纸、白卡纸均价周环比分别上涨 50 元/吨、50 ...

Market Performance - The paper sector increased by 0.78% on December 1, with Yibin Paper leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3914.01, up 0.65%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 13146.72, up 1.25% [1] Individual Stock Performance - Yibin Paper (600793) closed at 23.53, up 5.90% with a trading volume of 84,700 shares and a turnover of 196 million yuan [1] - Songyang Resources (603863) closed at 19.78, up 3.02% with a trading volume of 81,500 shares and a turnover of 159 million yuan [1] - Other notable performers include Qifeng New Materials (002521) up 1.79%, and Xianhe Co. (603733) up 1.74% [1] Capital Flow Analysis - The paper sector experienced a net outflow of 63.02 million yuan from institutional investors, while retail investors saw a net inflow of 49.87 million yuan [2] - The overall capital flow indicates a mixed sentiment, with institutional investors withdrawing funds while retail investors are actively buying [2] Detailed Capital Flow for Selected Stocks - Yibin Paper had a net inflow of 30.20 million yuan from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 15.85 million yuan from retail investors [3] - Songyang Resources saw a net inflow of 14.27 million yuan from institutional investors, with retail investors experiencing a net outflow of 14.49 million yuan [3] - Other stocks like Yueyang Forest Paper (600963) and ST Chenming (000488) also showed varied capital flows, reflecting differing investor sentiments [3]

Core Viewpoint - ST晨鸣 is currently assessing raw material supply at its Zhanjiang base and plans to meet the conditions for resuming production by the end of the year, with specific updates to be provided through company announcements [1] Company Summary - ST晨鸣 is actively working on the preparation of raw materials at its Zhanjiang facility [1] - The company aims to achieve the conditions necessary for resuming production by the end of this year [1] - Stakeholders are encouraged to monitor company announcements for updates on the progress of resumption and production [1]

以下文章来源于e公司 ，作者证券时报 康殷 e公司 . e公司，证券时报旗下专注上市公司新媒体产品，立志打造A股上市公司资讯第一平台。提供7x24小时上市公司标准化快讯，针对可能影响上市公司股价的 主题概念、行业事件及时采访二次解读，从投资者需求出发，直播上市公司有价值的活动、会议。 12 月 1 日盘前 深交所公告，安妮股份 （ 002235 ） 拟筹划控制权变更事项，经公司申请，公司股票 12 月 1 日开市起临时停牌。 据了解， 安妮股份主要业务为防伪溯源系统业务及版权综合服务、商务信息用纸业务。以客户需求为导向，为客户提供包含加载防伪溯源系统的商用定制标签 整体解决方案，为国家彩票中心提供产品制造供应与服务；为版权人提供确权、授权、维权、信息服务、资产管理等全面的版权综合服务，即从版权内容诞生 到版权内容变现的全方位全价值链服务，为大客户提供商务信息用纸整体解决方案服务。 11 月以来， 安妮股份 二级市场表现强劲。 11 月累计涨幅达 27.79% ，最新收报 9.29 元，总市值 54 亿元。 安妮股份 11 月 24 日披露股票交易异常波动公告称， 公司 股票于 2025 年 11 月 20 日 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company has resumed production at several facilities and is working to restore operations at others [1] Group 1: Production Status - As of December 1, the company confirmed that its Shouguang, Huanggang, Jilin, and Jiangxi Base II are operating normally [1] - The Jiangxi Base I and Zhanjiang Base are in the process of raw material preparation to expedite the resumption of production [1]

Report Investment Ratings - Black Industry: Iron ore, coal coke, roll screw, and glass are rated as "oscillating"; coal coke is "oscillating weakly" [2] - Financial: CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are rated as "rebounding"; 2-year, 5-year, and 10-year treasury bonds are "oscillating", with 10-year treasury bonds "rising"; Shanghai 50 and CSI 300 are "oscillating" [3] - Precious Metals: Gold and silver are rated as "oscillating strongly" [3][4] - Light Industry: Logs are "oscillating at the bottom"; pulp, double-offset paper are "oscillating weakly" [4][6] - Oilseeds and Oils: Soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are "running in a range"; soybean meal, rapeseed meal, soybean No.1, and soybean No.2 are "oscillating" [6] - Agricultural Products: Pigs are "oscillating strongly" [9] - Soft Commodities: Rubber, PX are "oscillating"; PTA is "oscillating"; MEG is "oscillating widely"; PR is "on the sidelines"; PF is "on the sidelines" [11] Core Views - The overall market is in a state of oscillation, with individual sectors showing weak, strong, or rebounding trends. The market is affected by factors such as supply and demand, policies, and international economic situations [2][3][4] - The black industry is facing challenges such as over - supply and weak demand, and prices are likely to remain oscillating [2] - The financial market is short - term adjusted but remains optimistic in the medium - term, with high - tech industries continuing to grow [3] - Precious metals are supported by factors such as central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks, with prices likely to oscillate strongly [3][4] - The light industry is affected by supply and demand and cost factors, with prices oscillating at the bottom or weakly [4][6] - The oilseeds and oils market is affected by factors such as US biodiesel policies and South American weather, with prices running in a range or oscillating [6] - The agricultural products market, especially the pig market, is affected by factors such as supply and demand and slaughter rates, with prices oscillating strongly [9] - The soft commodities market is affected by factors such as weather and downstream demand, with prices oscillating [11] Summary by Category Black Industry - Iron ore: Global iron ore shipments decreased by 238.0 tons to 3278.4 tons, 47 - port foreign ore arrivals increased by 569.6 tons to 2939.5 tons, and daily average molten iron production decreased by 1.6 tons to 234.68 tons. The supply - demand surplus is hard to reverse, and prices will oscillate at a high level [2] - Coal coke: Affected by import news and supply - guarantee meetings, the market is worried about supply resumption, and the coke enterprises started the first price cut. Supply concerns in the coking coal industry are intensifying, and prices will adjust weakly in the short - term [2] - Roll screw: Downstream demand is low, winter storage has not started, and prices will oscillate at the bottom. Whether steel prices can stop falling depends on production reduction and policy implementation [2] - Glass: Supply news is disturbing, and inventory has decreased. However, real - estate completion affects demand, and whether prices can rise depends on cold - repair progress [2][3] Financial - Stock index futures/options: The market adjusted in the short - term but remains optimistic in the medium - term. High - tech industries are growing. China's economic sentiment is generally stable [3] - Treasury bonds: The yield of the 10 - year treasury bond decreased by 1bp, and the market trend is slightly rebounding [3] Precious Metals - Gold: Its pricing mechanism is shifting to central bank gold purchases. It is supported by factors such as the US debt problem, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases. Short - term Fed policies and geopolitical situations affect prices [3][4] - Silver: Similar to gold, it is affected by Fed policies and economic data, and prices are likely to oscillate strongly [4] Light Industry - Logs: Port shipments decreased, imports and arrivals are changing, and inventory is increasing. Prices are expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][6] - Pulp: Spot prices are differentiated, costs support is weakening, and demand is poor. Prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - Double - offset paper: Supply is stable, the market is cautious, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] Oilseeds and Oils - Oils: US soybean crushing is at a record high, but bio - diesel policies are uncertain. Malaysian palm oil production and inventory are high, and domestic oil supply is abundant. Prices are expected to run in a range [6] - Meal: US soybean supply is structurally tight, but global supply is loose. Domestic supply is abundant, and demand is mainly for rigid needs. Prices are expected to oscillate [6] Agricultural Products - Pigs: The average trading weight fluctuates, demand has recovered, and slaughter rates are rising. Prices are expected to oscillate strongly, and settlement prices may decline slightly next week [9] Soft Commodities - Rubber: Affected by weather, production in some areas is low, demand is weak, and inventory is increasing seasonally. Prices are expected to oscillate widely [11] - PX: Supply is strong, downstream demand is good, and prices will oscillate [11] - PTA: Cost is loose, short - term supply - demand is improving, and prices will follow cost fluctuations [11] - MEG: There is long - term inventory pressure, and prices will oscillate with upward pressure [11] - PR: Cost is supported, but downstream follow - up is weak, and prices may rise with limited amplitude [11] - PF: Supply - demand is okay, and prices will oscillate without new news [11]

Core Viewpoint - Annie Co., Ltd. specializes in anti-counterfeiting traceability systems and comprehensive copyright services, as well as business information paper products, providing customized solutions based on customer needs [2][3] Business Overview - The company offers a full range of business information paper products, including thermal paper, carbonless paper, color inkjet printing paper, and double-sided paper, serving well-known clients such as Yum, Haidilao, JD.com, KFC, and Pizza Hut [2][3] - Annie Co., Ltd. has developed a comprehensive anti-counterfeiting traceability system over the past decade, with products covering various industries such as lubricants, daily chemicals, and beverages, serving clients like Tmall International, Castrol, RIO, Bosch, and Nike [2][3] Market Performance - In November, Annie Co., Ltd. experienced a strong market performance with a cumulative increase of 27.79%, closing at 9.29 yuan, with a total market capitalization of 5.4 billion yuan [4] - The company disclosed an abnormal stock trading announcement, indicating that its stock price had deviated by more than 20% over three consecutive trading days, but confirmed that its business operations remain stable without significant changes [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of the year, Annie Co., Ltd. reported revenue of 301 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.06%, but recorded a net loss of 1.3871 million yuan, attributed to the amortization expenses of a newly established employee stock ownership plan [4] Shareholding Structure - The actual controllers of Annie Co., Ltd. are Lin Xuxi and Zhang Jie, who are married, with Lin holding 14.95% of the shares and Zhang holding 5.95% [5]

南方财经12月1日电，恒丰纸业(600356.SH)2025年11月29日公告，对其发行股份收购四川锦丰纸业股份 有限公司100%股权的重组方案进行了调整。 根据公告，本次交易价格由原定的26,805.62万元下调至25,414.23万元，调减幅度为5.19%。相应的，发 行股份数量也由原计划的32,491,659股减少至30,805,126股，占发行后总股本的比例从9.81%降至 9.35%。 ...

Summary of Earnings Estimates for China Commodities Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **China commodities** sector, specifically covering various sub-sectors including steel, coal, cement, aluminum, copper, gold, EV metals, paper, and agriculture. Key Points in Earnings Estimates Revisions - **General Update**: Earnings estimates for China commodities have been refreshed to reflect mark-to-market price changes for Q3 2025 and the current quarter. Target price changes range from -5% to +5%, with investment ratings remaining unchanged. The changes are not viewed as material, and the overall investment thesis remains intact [1][2]. Steel Sector - **Baosteel and Maanshan-H/A**: Earnings estimates cut by 3% to 5%. Loss estimates for Angang-H/A increased by 4% for 2025E [9]. Coal Sector - **Shenhua-H/A, Yankuang-H/A, Chinacoal-H/A**: Earnings estimates updated by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on recent coal price trends. Chinacoal-H/A target price adjusted to HK$6.5 from HK$6.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Cement Sector - **CNBM, WCC, BBMG-H/A, Conch-H/A, CRBMT**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +3% for 2025-27E, reflecting recent unit gross profit trends [9]. Aluminum Sector - **Chalco-H/A and Hongqiao**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market aluminum and alumina prices. Hongqiao target price fine-tuned to HK$20.0 from HK$19.6, maintaining a Neutral rating [9]. Base Metals (Copper and Gold) - **Zijin-H/A, JXC-H/A, CMOC-H/A, MMG, Zhaojin**: Earnings estimates updated by -5% to +5% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market prices of copper and other metals [9]. EV Metals - **Huayou and GEM**: Earnings estimates adjusted by -3% to +5% for 2025-27E based on mark-to-market nickel/cobalt prices and cathode spreads. Huayou's target price fine-tuned to Rmb32.6 from Rmb32.4, maintaining a Sell rating [9]. Paper Sector - **ND Paper and Sun Paper**: Earnings estimates updated by 0% to 2% for 2025-27E to reflect mark-to-market paper prices [10]. Agriculture Sector - **Hog and Feed Coverage**: Earnings estimates revised by -5% to +3% for companies like Wens, New Hope, Haid, and Dabeinong, incorporating mark-to-market hog and feed prices. For animal health and conventional seeds, estimates revised by -5% to -2% [10][13]. Target Price Methodologies and Risks - **Cement Companies**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include weaker-than-expected construction demand and slower unauthorized cement capacity exit [14]. - **Base Metals**: Target prices based on historical P/B vs. ROE correlations. Key risks include lower commodity prices and operational risks [14]. Additional Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of considering these estimates as part of a broader investment decision-making process, highlighting potential conflicts of interest due to Goldman Sachs' business relationships with covered companies [3]. This summary encapsulates the key updates and insights from the earnings estimates for the China commodities sector, providing a comprehensive overview of the changes and their implications for investors.

Group 1 - The company has signed a loan guarantee contract with a syndicate of banks to provide a joint liability guarantee for its subsidiary, Wuzhou Special Paper (Jiangxi), for a loan amount not exceeding 150,000 million yuan [2][12] - The collateral for the loan includes land located in the high-tech industrial park in Hukou County, ensuring that the company's daily operations remain stable and that the guarantee does not adversely affect the interests of the company or its shareholders, especially minority shareholders [2][7] - The total amount of external guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries is 840,225.60 million yuan, which accounts for 237.94% of the company's latest audited net assets attributable to shareholders [8] Group 2 - The company has approved a guarantee limit of up to 7 billion yuan for the year 2025, which includes various forms of guarantees such as credit guarantees, mortgage guarantees, and performance guarantees [3] - The guarantee period for the loan contract is set to three years from the effective date of the guarantee contract, extending to three years after any debt extension or early maturity declaration by the lender [5][6] - The company maintains effective control over the operational risks and decisions of its wholly-owned subsidiary, ensuring that the guarantee is necessary and reasonable for supporting its normal production operations [7] Group 3 - The company will pay interest on its convertible bonds on December 8, 2025, with a coupon rate of 1.50% for the fourth year, resulting in a payment of 1.50 yuan per bond [23][18] - The convertible bonds were issued on December 8, 2021, with a total issuance amount of 670 million yuan and a maturity period of six years [19][15] - The initial conversion price for the bonds was set at 18.50 yuan per share, with the latest conversion price adjusted to 13.65 yuan per share [12][15]