Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The tariff issue continues to disrupt the market, causing significant fluctuations in risk assets. The suspension of reciprocal tariffs by the US has led to a rapid increase in market risk appetite, but the escalation of China-US tariffs is beneficial for gold. - The US dollar index has weakened due to the suspension of reciprocal tariffs on most countries by Trump, and it is expected to remain volatile in the short term. - The stock index futures market has been boosted by China's tariff countermeasures against the US, but the subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - The commodity market is generally under pressure. The prices of palm oil, coal, iron ore, and some energy - chemical products are affected by various factors such as market sentiment, supply - demand relationships, and tariff policies. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Event: Trump approved a 90 - day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on over 75 countries, during which the reciprocal tariffs will be reduced to 10%. - Review: Gold prices soared by over 3%, once rising by over $100, setting a record for the largest single - day increase. The suspension of tariffs increased market risk appetite, but the escalation of China - US tariffs is beneficial for gold. Gold is a good tool to hedge against the decline in the US dollar's credit. - Investment advice: Adopt a bullish approach in the short - term volatile market [14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Event: Summers warned that the US is far from out of danger and has lost a lot of credibility. The Fed meeting minutes showed that the US economy faces risks. Trump suspended reciprocal tariffs on most countries. - Review: The suspension of tariffs led to a significant rebound in market risk appetite, causing the US dollar index to weaken. The reciprocal tariffs are in a temporary adjustment phase, and the US dollar index is expected to remain volatile. - Investment advice: The US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. The Fed meeting minutes showed that inflation is slightly high and economic uncertainty has increased. Trump suspended tariffs on some countries but raised tariffs on China to 125%. - Review: The China - US tariff negotiation is at a deadlock, and policy uncertainty remains high. The financial market is volatile, and the risk of a liquidity shock has not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a bearish approach and avoid chasing high prices [20][21][22]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Event: The Chinese Premier held a symposium on the economic situation. China increased tariffs on US imports from 34% to 84%. - Review: The A - share market rebounded, and market sentiment was boosted. However, subsequent macro - level changes will increase market volatility. - Investment advice: Adopt a risk - averse approach in the short term [23][24][26]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Event: China released a white paper on China - US economic and trade relations. The central bank conducted a 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 111 billion yuan. - Review: The main logic of the treasury bond market is clear. The probability of a short - term easing of trade conflicts is low, and the expectation of loose monetary policy is difficult to be falsified. The upward trend of treasury bonds is likely to continue. - Investment advice: Hold positions and wait for the implementation of loose policies, or add positions on dips [27][28][29]. 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Event: Indonesian palm oil industry and farmer groups urged the government to reduce export tariffs to 0% to offset the impact of US tariffs. - Review: The global market sentiment is low, and the price of palm oil has fallen. China's counter - tariffs on the US may be beneficial for far - month soybean oil. The possibility of Indonesia reducing palm oil export tariffs is low. - Investment advice: Consider closing previous short positions and pay attention to the MPOB report [30][31]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - Event: As of the end of March, China's commercial cotton inventory decreased, and India's cotton planting area may increase. The CCI has purchased a large amount of cotton, and its sales volume is not high. - Review: The CCI's purchase and sales situation, as well as the trade war, may affect India's cotton production, consumption, and import estimates. The price of Zhengzhou cotton has fallen, but the decline may slow down. - Investment advice: The cotton price is expected to be weakly volatile. Pay attention to macro - policies, planting, weather, and industry conditions in major producing countries [32][35][37]. 2.3 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Event: China's coal demand is expected to increase slightly in 2025. - Review: The coal price has been relatively stable. The power plant's inventory is at a neutral level, and the price is expected to be supported in May but lacks elasticity. - Investment advice: The power plant may replenish coal inventory in May, but the price increase is limited [38]. 2.4 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - Event: JFE Steel in Japan plans to shut down a blast furnace, reducing its annual crude steel production capacity by about 4 million tons. - Review: The black metal market has continued to decline, but the short - term deterioration of fundamentals is not severe. Pay attention to the risk of liquidity. - Investment advice: Maintain a bearish approach and wait for a better opportunity to short after a rebound [39][40][41]. 2.5 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Event: The coking coal market in East China has remained stable. Some coal mines in Shanxi have reduced production, and downstream coke enterprises have started to increase prices. - Review: The coking coal spot market has improved, but the futures market faces pressure. The coke spot market may continue to increase prices, but the medium - long - term supply is expected to be loose. - Investment advice: The spot market has stabilized, but the futures market faces pressure from subsequent demand and warehouse receipts [42][43]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Event: The operating rate of corn starch enterprises has decreased significantly, but inventory has only decreased slightly. - Review: High raw material prices and weak downstream demand have led to a decrease in the operating rate. The futures price difference between corn starch and corn is expected to remain stable. - Investment advice: The CS05 - C05 price difference is expected to remain around the normal processing fee of 380 yuan [44][45][47]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Event: The inventory at northern ports has decreased for two consecutive weeks, and the price of corn in the production area is relatively firm. - Review: The outflow of corn from Northeast China has accelerated, and the weak basis has suppressed the futures price. The 07 contract is considered undervalued. - Investment advice: Maintain the view that the 07 contract is undervalued and pay attention to whether the acceleration of inventory reduction in Northeast China can boost trader sentiment [48]. 2.8 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Event: The retail sales of passenger cars in March increased significantly year - on - year. - Review: The steel price has rebounded, and market sentiment has improved. However, the demand for building materials is weak, and the demand for hot - rolled coils is declining slowly. - Investment advice: Adopt a cautious approach in the short term and hedge on the spot market when prices are high [49][50][51]. 2.9 Agricultural Products (Pigs) - Event: The sales volume of three major listed pig enterprises increased in March, and the average selling price slightly increased. - Review: The short - term fluctuation of pig prices has increased, but it will eventually return to the fundamental situation. The spot price may face downward pressure. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [52][53][54]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - Event: Yunnan Nengtou Group's Yongchang Silicon's 100,000 - ton hydropower silicon project was put into operation. Some production capacity in Xinjiang was reduced, and some new production capacity in the southwest is expected to be put into operation. - Review: The supply has decreased, but the demand is weak, and the fundamental situation of industrial silicon is difficult to change. - Investment advice: The futures price may range from 9,000 to 10,500 yuan/ton. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds and Si2511 - Si2512 reverse arbitrage opportunities [55][56][57]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - Event: The LME lead spread was at a discount, and the price of refined lead decreased. - Review: The lead price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Although the medium - term outlook is bullish, macro risks have not been eliminated. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for buying opportunities on dips. Continue to hold the internal - external reverse arbitrage [58][59][60]. 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Event: The blockade of Glencore's Antapaccay copper mine in Peru was suspended. Codelco plans to significantly increase copper production this year. Indonesia will increase mining royalties. - Review: The short - term macro factors have a relatively uncertain impact on copper prices. The short - term supply and demand in China are strong, and the inventory is expected to decrease. - Investment advice: The copper price is expected to be volatile in the short term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach and pay attention to positive arbitrage opportunities in Shanghai copper [61][62][64]. 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Event: The LME zinc spread was at a discount, and the Shanghai - Guangdong price difference widened. - Review: The zinc price is mainly affected by macro factors. The market is cautious, and the export of zinc may be suppressed. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach in the short term and look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the medium term. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [65][66][67]. 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Event: An Australian company produced the first batch of lithium carbonate in Argentina. Argentina plans to increase lithium production by 75% in 2025. - Review: The current fundamentals of lithium carbonate are bearish, and the price may continue to decline in the long term. - Investment advice: Consider partial profit - taking on short positions in the short term and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds in the long term [68][69][70]. 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metals (Nickel) - Event: Indonesia will increase mining and coal royalties in the second week of April. - Review: The nickel price has slightly decreased, and the cost is expected to increase marginally. The market may digest negative sentiment. - Investment advice: Pay attention to buying opportunities on dips after the release of negative sentiment [71][72]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - Event: China increased tariffs on US imports to 84%. The US C3 inventory started to accumulate. - Review: The PG price has decreased, but it may strengthen due to the increase in tariffs and the recovery of crude oil prices. However, policy uncertainty should be noted. - Investment advice: The domestic market may experience a valuation - repair market, but reduce risk exposure and participate cautiously [73][74][75]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Event: The US EIA crude oil inventory increased. Trump announced the suspension of reciprocal tariffs. - Review: The oil price has rebounded, but there is still a risk of decline due to the uncertainty of the tariff issue and the OPEC+ production policy. - Investment advice: The oil price is expected to be volatile in the short term and still has a downward risk [76]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - Event: The tariff war has escalated, and the demand for PTA is uncertain. - Review: The PTA price has decreased, and the demand for polyester is affected by tariffs. The impact on PTA pricing is relatively lagged. - Investment advice: The PTA price will mainly follow the crude oil price in the short term and is expected to be weakly volatile [77][78]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Event: The inventory of styrene in the East China main port decreased. - Review: The styrene price has reached a new low and then rebounded. The downstream inventory may accumulate, and the production profit may not be sustainable. - Investment advice: The eb - bz spread may expand in the short term and contract in the long term [78][79]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - Event: The price of high - concentration caustic soda in Shandong decreased, and the supply was stable while the demand was weak. - Review: The caustic soda price is expected to decline, and the market is mainly affected by macro factors in the short term. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [80][82][83]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - Event: The price of imported wood pulp decreased. - Review: The pulp price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [84]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - Event: The spot price of PVC powder decreased. - Review: The PVC price is mainly affected by macro factors, and the market is bearish. - Investment advice: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [85]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Event: The export price of bottle chips decreased, and a polyester bottle chip device in East China restarted. - Review: The bottle chip price has decreased, and the processing fee has been passively repaired, but it is difficult to break away from the low - level oscillation range. - Investment advice: The bottle chip price will follow the cost side and be weakly volatile in the short term [86][88][89]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Event: The price of soda ash in the East China market was adjusted slightly. - Review: The soda ash price is in a low - level oscillation, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand is general. - Investment advice: Adopt a short - selling approach on rebounds in the medium term [90]. 2.25 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - Event: The price of float glass in Hubei remained stable. - Review: The float glass price is mainly affected by demand. Although there may be an improvement in the second - quarter demand, the upward space is limited. - Investment advice: The float glass price will be in a low - level range in the short term. Pay attention to buying opportunities on large dips [91][92][93].

金价延续跌势，海外市场恐慌情绪有所缓解，但贸易战短期并 没有明显的缓和迹象，其他国家预期陆续和美国进行谈判，但 中国推出反制措施后，特朗普再度施压。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 贝森特：预计在 4 月 9 日关税上调之前不会达成任何协议 综 特朗普最新表态没有考虑暂停加征关税，短期市场波动加剧， 市场风险偏好短期回升，流动性冲击暂时结束。 日度报告——综合晨报 新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-04-08 宏观策略（黄金） 美联储理事库格勒：新关税政策将会产生"重要影响" 巴西大豆收获完成 87% 中美贸易战升级为当前市场主要矛盾，CBOT 大豆下跌，昨日巴 西 CNF 升贴水上涨但涨幅有限，昨日我国进口巴西豆成本甚至 较清明小长假前略降、豆粕期价涨幅有限。 有色金属（氧化铝） 西澳地区为主的海外氧化铝成交价格继续回落 氧化铝企业因担心长单客户损失、对成本下降的预期以及储备 现金流和产业链优势等因素，继续维持生产。 能源化工（原油） 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 商务部召开美资企业圆桌会 报 受关税冲击影响，A 股市场暴跌，主要指数跌幅高达 8%以上。 短期内 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The rubber market is bearish due to strong supply increase expectations, weakened global demand under tariff disturbances, and continued inventory accumulation [3]. - For PX, PTA, and MEG, the cost has dropped significantly, and demand has weakened due to tariff disturbances. PX prices are expected to be weak, PTA prices will follow the cost - side to fluctuate, and MEG prices are relatively supported to rebound [4]. - The polyolefin market's demand is expected to weaken significantly after the "reciprocal tariff" is implemented, and prices are expected to decline following crude oil [5]. - The PVC market's supply and demand will both weaken marginally, and prices are expected to fall after the "reciprocal tariff" is implemented [6]. - The methanol market's near - term supply and demand are tight, but the far - month supply and demand may be loose, and the main contract is expected to be weak [7]. 3. Summaries by Directory Rubber Price - Futures prices of RU, NR, and BR have declined. The RU main contract decreased by 375 yuan/ton, the NR main contract by 470 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract by 390 yuan/ton from March 28 to April 3 [12]. - The basis of rubber main contracts has changed. The RU main contract basis decreased by 25 yuan/ton, the NR main contract basis by 6 yuan/ton, and the BR main contract basis increased by 490 yuan/ton [15]. - The RU5 - 9 month spread fluctuates slightly. The RU - NR spread decreased by 8 yuan/ton compared to the previous period and 222 yuan/ton year - on - year [19]. - The processing profit of Thai standard rubber has improved. It increased by 50.67 dollars/ton compared to the previous period and 66 dollars/ton year - on - year [25]. Supply - Domestic and foreign natural rubber production areas are in different stages of the opening season. China's Yunnan and Hainan, Thailand, and Vietnam have specific opening schedules. The supply is expected to increase [3][33]. - China's natural and mixed rubber imports have increased year - on - year and month - on - month. In February 2025, the imports of natural and mixed rubber were 50.32 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 44.9% [41]. - The production of butadiene is at a high level. The capacity utilization rate of butadiene on April 4, 2025, was 75.37%, a year - on - year increase of 11.71% [45]. - There is a net import of butadiene rubber. In February 2025, the import was 22,651 tons, and the export was 18,456 tons [52]. Demand - The domestic demand for rubber is generally rigid. The capacity utilization rate of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises is 75.81%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises is 68.28%, showing a decline compared to the previous period and the same period last year [3][55]. - Tire manufacturers have insufficient motivation to reduce inventory. As of the week of April 4, the inventory turnover days of domestic tire enterprises' full - steel tires and semi - steel tires were 41 days and 43 days respectively, with a weekly decrease of 1 day [56]. - From January to February, tire exports maintained a year - on - year increase [57]. - China's automobile production and sales continued to grow steadily. In March 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 105,000 vehicles, a 29% increase from February and a 9% decrease from the same period last year [58][59]. Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber is still in the accumulation stage. As of March 30, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.379 million tons, a 0.6% increase from the previous period [3]. - The inventory of Qingdao area has increased. As of March 28, the total inventory was 476,400 tons, an increase of 21,600 tons from the previous period [61]. - As of April 3, the natural rubber warehouse receipt was 200,000 tons, a weekly increase of 700 tons, and the exchange total inventory was 200,771 tons, a weekly decrease of 40 tons [66]. 持仓 - The total positions of natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, and BR have changed. As of April 3, 2025, the total positions of natural rubber decreased by 7,043 hands, 20 - number rubber decreased by 11,038 hands, and BR increased by 4,939 hands compared to March 28 [72]. - The virtual - to - physical ratio of NR has declined, and the warehouse receipt pressure has eased [75]. PX&PTA&MEG Price - The futures prices of PX, PTA, and MEG have declined. From March 28 to April 3, 2025, the PTA closing price decreased by 92 yuan/ton, the MEG closing price by 12 yuan/ton, and the PX closing price by 140 yuan/ton [100]. - The basis and spreads of PTA, MEG, and PX have changed. For example, the PTA basis decreased by 1 yuan/ton, the MEG basis decreased by 18 yuan/ton, and the PX basis increased by 135 yuan/ton [108]. Supply - Some PX devices have started maintenance. As of April 4, the PX operating load in China was 74.4%, a weekly decrease of 3.4%, and the Asian PX operating load was 71.5%, a weekly decrease of 1% [120]. - The operating load of PTA decreased by 0.7% to 79.2% as of April 3 [123]. - The overall operating load of ethylene glycol in the Chinese mainland was 72.13% as of April 3, a decrease of 0.45% from the previous period [125]. 进出口 No relevant information provided. Inventory - The ethylene glycol inventory has decreased. The inventory in the East China main port area was about 785,000 tons as of March 31, an increase of 18,000 tons from the previous period [4]. Polyester Demand The terminal demand is in the process of recovery, but the downstream demand after the festival has not recovered as expected, and the recovery of terminal demand is slow [130][131]. 持仓 No relevant information provided.

证券代码：600409 证券简称：三友化工 公告编号：临 2025-005 号 公司参会人员：证券事务代表王国平女士及证券部、经济运行中心有关人员。 二、会议交流的主要内容 唐山三友化工股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"）于 2025 年 2 月 21 日接待了 投资者咨询交流，有关情况如下： 一、交流会基本情况 时间：2025 年 2 月 21 日 14:00-15:00，15:30-16:30 交流方式：现场及电话会议 参会机构名称：招商证券股份有限公司、江苏睿诚投资股份有限公司、浙商 证券股份有限公司、国泰基金管理有限公司。 唐山三友化工股份有限公司 投资者交流会会议纪要 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述 或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 1.公司主导产品市场情况 纯碱：目前国内纯碱行业产能约 4080 万吨，较 2024 年底基本持平。当前纯 碱企业经营承压明显，纯碱价格僵持盘整，行业库存 180 万吨左右，行业整体开 工率 89%左右。预计今年二季度随着行业检修逐步开始，行业开工有所降低，高 库存局面或将得到一定程度缓解，不排除行业检修供给 ...