Report Overview - Report Title: Pig Daily Report - Date: October 17, 2025 - Industry: Pig 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The supply of live pigs is expected to increase slightly before the Spring Festival, and the 2511 and 2601 contracts will continue to be dragged down by the weak spot market and mainly fluctuate weakly. In the current low - price environment, attention should be paid to whether the rhythm and volume of secondary fattening will continue to increase and drive the market. On the spot side, the supply and demand of live pigs are both increasing, but the supply growth rate is still relatively large, and the supply - demand relationship is loose. The spot price may still be mainly fluctuating weakly, and it has rebounded slightly driven by the secondary fattening demand [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: On the 15th, the main 2601 contract of live pigs opened slightly lower and then fluctuated downwards, closing with a negative line at the end of the session. The highest was 12,175 yuan/ton, the lowest was 11,880 yuan/ton, and the closing price was 11,905 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.21% compared with the previous day. The total open interest of the index increased by 15,190 lots to 296,783 lots [6]. - **Spot Market**: On the 16th, the average price of三元 pigs nationwide was 11.16 yuan/kg, an increase of 0.11 yuan/kg compared with the previous day [6]. - **Supply - side**: In September, the actual completion rate of supply - side slaughter was only 96.5%, and part of the slaughter will be postponed to October. The planned slaughter volume of sample enterprises in October increased by 5.14% compared with the actual slaughter volume in September, and the slaughter volume may continue to increase significantly. The slaughter weight increased seasonally. In the long term, the slaughter of live pigs is expected to maintain a slight increase until the first half of next year [7]. - **Demand - side**: Currently, the cost of secondary fattening to produce meat is low, and there is some replenishment demand after the utilization rate of pens declines, which has increased in some areas. Terminal demand lacks obvious positive support and has declined slightly after the festival, but as the weather continues to cool, residents' consumption may continue to rise, and the demand side may gradually improve. The orders of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, and the operating rate and slaughter volume of slaughtering enterprises have increased slightly, but the overall increase may be limited. On October 16th, the slaughter volume of sample slaughtering enterprises was 163,300 heads, an increase of 1,000 heads compared with the previous day, a week - on - week increase of 10,600 heads, and a month - on - month increase of 14,000 heads [7]. 3.2 Industry News - No specific industry news content is provided in the report. 3.3 Data Overview - **Breeding Profit**: As of October 9th, the average profit per head of self - breeding and self - raising pigs was - 77 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 23 yuan/head; the average profit per head of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 320 yuan/head, a week - on - week decrease of 13 yuan/head [16]. - **15kg Piglet Price**: In the week of October 9th, the average market sales price of 15kg piglets was 281 yuan/head, a decrease of 53 yuan/head compared with the previous week [16]. - **Price Difference between 150 - kg Fat Pigs and Standard Pigs**: In the week of October 9th, the price difference between 150 - kg fat pigs and standard pigs was 0.26 yuan/jin, a week - on - week increase of 0.1 yuan/jin [16]. - **National Average Slaughter Weight of Live Pigs**: As of the week of October 9th, the national average slaughter weight of live pigs was 128.48 kg, a decrease of 0.07 kg compared with the previous week, a month - on - month decline of 0.05% [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Both the pig and egg industries are rated as "Cautiously Bearish" [2][5] Core Views - In the pig market, the pre - holiday stocking during the double festivals was lackluster, demand growth was limited. The National Day holiday in October affected the pig slaughter schedule, leading to an accelerated post - holiday slaughter rhythm by large farms and concentrated slaughter by smallholders. Demand is expected to decline in the short term after the holiday, and the oversupply situation is unlikely to change in the short term [2] - In the egg market, egg prices dropped rapidly after the holiday. Traders were cautious in purchasing, leading to passive inventory accumulation at all levels. Consumption demand returned to the off - season normal this week, with no short - term positive factors. The large supply pressure during the seasonal off - season suppressed spot prices, and market sentiment was pessimistic [4] Summary by Related Catalogs Pig Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live hog 2601 contract was 11,905 yuan/ton, down 290 yuan/ton or 2.38% from the previous trading day [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live hogs was 11.21 yuan/kg, down 0.02 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 11.44 yuan/kg, up 0.11 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 10.73 yuan/kg, up 0.20 yuan/kg [1] - Agricultural Product Prices: On October 16, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" rose 0.34 points, the "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index rose 0.40 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 18.02 yuan/kg, down 1.0%; beef was 66.22 yuan/kg, up 0.4%; mutton was 62.07 yuan/kg, up 0.7%; eggs were 7.46 yuan/kg, up 0.3%; white - striped chickens were 17.73 yuan/kg, up 1.3% [1] Market Analysis - The pre - holiday stocking was lackluster, demand growth was limited. The holiday affected the slaughter schedule, and post - holiday supply pressure increased while demand declined in the short term. The oversupply situation is hard to change in the short term [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [2] Egg Market Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2511 contract was 2,818 yuan/500 kilograms, down 37 yuan or 1.30% from the previous trading day [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg price was 2.82 yuan/jin, up 0.11 yuan; in Shandong, it was 2.85 yuan/jin, up 0.10 yuan; in Hebei, it was 2.53 yuan/jin, unchanged [3] - Inventory: On October 16, 2025, the production - link inventory was 1.32 days, down 0.26 days or 16.46% from the previous day; the circulation - link inventory was 1.4 days, down 0.16 days or 10.26% [3] Market Analysis - Egg prices dropped rapidly after the holiday, traders were cautious, and all levels had passive inventory accumulation. Consumption demand returned to the off - season normal, with no short - term positive factors. Supply pressure suppressed prices, and market sentiment was pessimistic [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]

Core Points - Heilongjiang Guoniu Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. was fined 278,400 RMB by the Qiqihar Ecological Environment Bureau for illegal wastewater discharge [1][2] - The company discharged approximately 15 tons of domestic sewage through a hidden pipe from its septic tank to an open area between February 25 and March 1, 2025 [1][2] - The company failed to reach an agreement with a wastewater treatment plant for proper sewage disposal, violating the Water Pollution Prevention and Control Law of the People's Republic of China [2] Company Information - Heilongjiang Guoniu Animal Husbandry Co., Ltd. was established on March 24, 2022, with a registered capital of 50 million RMB [2] - The legal representative of the company is Zhao Xiaoming, and it is located in the industrial park of Yian Town, Qiqihar City, Heilongjiang Province [2] - The company operates in the animal husbandry industry [2]

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting provides a comprehensive assessment of the Chinese lamb industry from 2026 to 2032, highlighting market trends and development opportunities [1] Import Data Summary - In April 2025, China's lamb imports reached 36,900 tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 3% [1] - The import value for the same period was $13.8 million, which represents a significant year-on-year growth of 25.5% [1] Industry Overview - Zhiyan Consulting is recognized as a leading industry consulting firm in China, specializing in in-depth industry research and providing a range of consulting services including feasibility studies and customized reports [1] - The firm emphasizes its commitment to delivering high-quality services and market insights to empower investment decisions [1]

Core Viewpoint - The overall enthusiasm for livestock sales post-holiday is high, but terminal consumer demand is declining, leading to a surplus in the market and a decrease in pork retail prices across major cities in China [1] Group 1: Market Trends - From October 6 to 12, the retail price of pork in 36 major cities decreased by 0.2% compared to the previous period [1] - The western region of China experienced the most significant price drops, with Nanning, Chongqing, and Chengdu seeing declines of 1.0%, 0.6%, and 0.3% respectively [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company has not yet planned a specific strategy for black pork in first-tier cities, despite the increasing demand for black pork products in urban areas [1] Company Summary - Dongrui Co., Ltd. (001201.SZ) has indicated that its subsidiary farms raise blue-tongued pigs but have not established a clear plan for black pork production targeting first-tier cities [1]

Core Insights - Zhengzhou is focusing on building a modern agricultural city during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period, emphasizing food security, technological innovation, and industrial upgrades [1][2][3] Food Security - Zhengzhou has implemented multiple measures to ensure food security during challenging weather conditions, maintaining a stable grain planting area of approximately 4.46 million acres and a total output of over 2.9 billion pounds [2] - The city has constructed 1.28 million acres of high-standard farmland and improved drainage systems, enhancing flood and drought resistance [2] - The Central Plains Modern Food Industry Park has boosted the pig industry, with a year-on-year increase of over 24% in pig output in the first half of the year [2] Modern Agricultural System - Zhengzhou is expanding agriculture from traditional production to a full industrial chain, with significant growth in new industries and business models [3] - The city has launched nine provincial-level agricultural seed projects and established a high-quality seed development plan, promoting modern seed industry development [3] - The number of key leading agricultural enterprises has reached 161, with 14 at the national level, fostering a robust agricultural service system [3] Rural Development - Zhengzhou has made progress in building a brand for specialty agricultural products, with 133 green food products and 10 geographical indication products recognized [4] - The city has developed 18 new rural tourism routes and cultivated several national-level leisure agriculture key counties and beautiful rural areas [4] Beautiful and Livable Villages - Zhengzhou has invested over 1.4 billion yuan in constructing beautiful and livable villages, with 80 projects completed and 12 leisure tourism routes established [6] - The city is promoting a comprehensive rural revitalization strategy, with a focus on creating pilot areas for rural development [6] Governance and Community Engagement - The city has enhanced rural governance through community engagement and innovative management models, integrating agricultural work into a broader governance framework [7] - Efforts to improve farmers' income through skill training and support for entrepreneurship have led to stable income growth for rural residents [7]

Core Points - The article emphasizes the importance of agriculture and food security in China, especially during the current autumn harvest season, highlighting the challenges faced by farmers due to adverse weather conditions [4][19][41]. Group 1: Current Agricultural Challenges - Farmers in regions like Henan, Shandong, and Anhui are busier than in previous years due to the autumn harvest, but they are facing difficulties caused by continuous rainfall and flooding [2][10][18]. - In September, Henan province experienced eight significant rainfall events, with an average precipitation of 332.4 mm, which is 2.7 times higher than the normal level for this period [28][29]. - The adverse weather has led to concerns about crop yields, with farmers urgently trying to ensure that their harvests are not lost [30][41]. Group 2: Government Support and Initiatives - The Chinese government has allocated 50 million yuan for autumn grain harvesting and drying machinery subsidies to support farmers [33]. - Various regions are implementing measures to enhance agricultural productivity, such as investing in irrigation systems and increasing machinery input for the autumn harvest [44][45]. - The National Supply and Marketing Cooperative has mobilized resources to provide drying services and facilitate grain collection points for farmers [38][40]. Group 3: Agricultural Production and Economic Impact - The article notes that the current autumn harvest is crucial, with over 60% of the autumn grain already harvested, including nearly 70% of the mid-season rice and 55% of corn [50]. - In Guangdong, the lychee harvest is particularly successful, with the planting area expected to reach 591,400 acres and a fresh fruit output of 254,900 tons, marking a 22.4% increase year-on-year [112]. - The focus on improving farmers' incomes and ensuring food security is seen as a key aspect of rural revitalization efforts [92][119].

10月16日，国内期市农副产品板块多数飘绿。其中，生猪期货主力合约开盘报12175.00元/吨，今日盘 中低位震荡运行；截至午间收盘，生猪主力最高触及12175.00元，下方探低11880.00元，跌幅达 3.13%。 馄饨天成期货指出，现货昨日涨幅较大，主要是受到投机需求增长以及供应阶段性集中释放告一段落所 支撑，预计短期可能维持偏强的格局，但中期供强需弱的基本面未有改善，策略上建议空单止盈，等反 弹结束后继续布空。 新世纪期货分析称，后期来看，尽管猪源供应仍然充足，但下游拿货积极性普遍较差，屠宰企业提升屠 宰量的难度较大。随着气温下滑，市场对大猪需求有好转，利好大猪价格，但大猪供应整体尚可，限制 大猪价格上涨空间，预计下周全国肥标价差或小幅走阔。今年国庆假期备货量不及往年，节后需求或下 滑。预计生猪价格短期内震荡偏弱运行。 目前来看，生猪行情呈现震荡下行走势，盘面表现偏弱。对于生猪后市行情将如何运行，相关机构观点 汇总如下： 五矿期货表示，四季度理论供应压力偏大，当前养殖利润已全面转负，现货进入下跌的集中兑现期，悲 观情绪下盘面近月升水被持续挤出；另一方面考虑今年下跌偏早，价格提前下放一定程度释放了春节前 ...

Core Viewpoint - The pork price has been on a downward trend since October, with the national average price for live pigs nearing 11 yuan per kilogram, raising concerns about whether it can be maintained [2] Group 1: Price Dynamics - The relationship between live pig prices and pork prices is complex, involving multiple stages such as slaughtering, transportation, and distribution, which delays the reflection of live pig price changes in the market pork prices [4] - There is a notable pattern in price transmission: prices rise quickly but fall slowly. When live pig prices increase, the market tends to react swiftly, while a decrease in prices does not prompt the same urgency in the market [5][7] - Historical data shows that even with significant drops in live pig prices, market pork prices tend to remain high, as stakeholders in the supply chain are reluctant to lower prices [8] Group 2: Seasonal Consumption Trends - As the year-end approaches, there is typically a 20% increase in pork consumption compared to September and October, driven by seasonal demand for products like cured meats and sausages [11] - Recent increases in pork prices can be attributed to rising demand as temperatures drop, indicating that the market is beginning to recover, which may support pork prices in the near term [9][11]