证券代码：605305 证券简称：中际联合 公告编号：2025-046 中际联合（北京）科技股份有限公司 本公司董事会及全体董事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或 者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确性和完整性承担法律责任。 重要内容提示： ? 业绩预告的具体适用情形：实现盈利，且净利润与上年同期相比上升 50% 以上。 ? 业绩预告相关的主要财务数据情况：中际联合（北京）科技股份有限公 司（以下简称"公司"）预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利润 为 25,000.00 万元到 30,000.00 万元，同比增长 78.02%到 113.63%；公司预计 一、本期业绩预告情况 （一）业绩预告期间 （二）业绩预告情况 经财务部门初步测算，预计 2025 年半年度实现归属于母公司所有者的净利 润为 25,000.00 万元到 30,000.00 万元，与上年同期相比，将增加 10,956.76 万元到 15,956.76 万元，同比增长 78.02%到 113.63%。 公司本次业绩预测是公司财务部门基于自身专业判断进行的初步核算，未经 注册会计师审计。目前公司尚未发现影响本次业绩预 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the wind power industry [1] Core Insights - The domestic wind power industry is expected to see long-term demand remain optimistic, with significant cost advantages in electricity generation. The share of wind power development is likely to increase under the backdrop of comprehensive new energy market entry [3][4] - The wind turbine price is expected to rebound due to multiple factors, leading to a recovery in profitability for turbine manufacturers. The competitive landscape is improving as companies focus on profitability rather than just market share [3][25] - Emerging markets are anticipated to experience a turning point in wind power demand, with significant export opportunities for Chinese wind turbines. The export capacity is projected to reach 5.2GW in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42% [3][25] Summary by Sections Domestic Wind Power Industry Development - The long-term outlook for the domestic wind power industry remains positive, with a projected CAGR of 106% for the retirement of old wind turbines from 2025 to 2030, creating demand for new equipment [3][12] - The average new installed capacity for onshore wind is expected to be 120GW in 2025, while offshore wind is projected at 10GW [12] Wind Turbine Manufacturing Industry - The report highlights a recovery in profitability for wind turbine manufacturers, with a 5%-10% increase in bidding prices for turbines in 2024 [3][25] - The average new installed capacity for onshore and offshore wind turbines is expected to reach 5.9MW and 10.0MW respectively by 2024, reflecting a significant increase from 2020 [20][24] Export Market Potential - The report emphasizes the growing international market for Chinese wind turbines, with a projected CAGR of 44% from 2020 to 2024 for exports [3][25] - The report notes that the international brand influence of Chinese wind turbines has been increasing, leading to a significant rise in overseas orders [3][25] Cost Reduction and Technological Advancements - The average cost of onshore wind power is expected to decrease to 0.1-0.15 yuan/KWh by 2025, down from 1.5 yuan/KWh in 2002, representing an 88% reduction [24] - The average cost of offshore wind power is projected to decline to 0.3 yuan/KWh by 2025, down from 1.3 yuan/KWh in 2009, a 74% decrease [24] Competitive Landscape - The report indicates that the competitive landscape is improving, with a focus on fair competition and self-regulation among manufacturers to mitigate "involution" in the industry [3][42] - The concentration of the wind turbine manufacturing industry is increasing, with the top five manufacturers accounting for 75% of new installations by 2024 [33][34]

Core Viewpoint - The "anti-involution" research trend is gaining momentum in the A-share market, with expectations that it may become the main theme for the next market phase, benefiting various sectors such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, coal, steel, chemicals, energy, and construction materials [2][3][4]. Group 1: Research and Analysis - In the past week, a total of 176 research reports on the "anti-involution" theme were published by institutions, covering multiple industries including strategy, macroeconomics, steel, fossil energy, electrical equipment, building materials, non-ferrous metals, chemicals, and aquaculture [2]. - The "anti-involution" theme has become a focal point in analyst roadshows, with 79 related events held in the past week, indicating a strong institutional interest [2]. - Analysts believe that the current round of "anti-involution" has a higher standing, broader coverage, and stronger synergy, with potential implications for the market's next phase [3]. Group 2: Policy and Market Implications - The Central Financial Committee's recent meeting emphasized the need to promote a unified national market and address issues of low-price competition, which has led to increased attention on "anti-involution" in the capital market [3]. - The "anti-involution" policy is expected to unfold in three stages: policy expectations, price increases, and demand expansion, with a focus on sectors that may experience a turnaround [4]. Group 3: Beneficiary Industries - Key sectors expected to benefit from the "anti-involution" policies include: - Midstream and downstream manufacturing such as lithium batteries, photovoltaics, wind power, passenger vehicles, paper, and medical devices - Service and consumer sectors like food processing, express delivery, and small appliances - Resource materials including steel, cement/glass, consumer building materials, chemical fibers/agricultural chemicals, and energy metals - Real estate-related sectors such as kitchen appliances and home furnishings [5][6]. - The steel industry is highlighted for its potential bottom reversal, with supply-side reforms and improved profitability expected [8]. Group 4: Sector-Specific Insights - The photovoltaic industry is entering a high-quality development phase, with significant stock price increases observed in related sectors [9]. - Analysts suggest that the photovoltaic sector's recovery will depend on effective supply-side reforms and the establishment of a long-term mechanism for eliminating outdated capacity [9]. - Recent downgrades in specific photovoltaic stocks indicate a cautious outlook despite the overall positive sentiment in the sector [10].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that the Shanghai Composite Index has closed above 3500 points, suggesting a likely medium-term trend of a slow bull market characterized by fluctuations, influenced by recent tariff shocks and rising overseas uncertainties [1] - The report emphasizes the importance of structural opportunities, recommending a focus on sectors that may benefit from unexpected earnings in mid-year reports and those that could gain from anti-involution trends, including photovoltaic equipment, batteries, passenger vehicles, steel, fiberglass, innovative pharmaceuticals/CXO, and optical modules/PCBs [1] - The analysis highlights that the recovery in profits is expected to be gradual, with ample market liquidity and long-term funds playing a stabilizing role, while also noting that the current core incremental funds are dominated by low-risk preference rather than speculative capital [1] Group 2 - The report discusses the recent clear rotation in the market, where the "anti-involution" trend has reinforced the "high-low switch" strategy, suggesting a focus on sectors that have lagged since March 20 and may benefit from this trend, such as lithium batteries, passenger vehicles, steel, and building materials [2] - It also mentions that since July, the market has responded positively to high growth or exceeding expectations in mid-year reports, with a focus on blue-chip leaders reflecting overall industry improvement expectations, particularly in sectors like shipbuilding, CXO, semiconductor equipment, aquaculture, wind power equipment, military electronics, and overseas computing power [2] - The report notes the impact of new tariff policies initiated by Trump, which introduce uncertainties for global markets and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions, as well as a recent trade agreement with Vietnam that could affect related transshipment goods with a 40% tariff [2]

Group 1 - The company expects a loss for the first half of 2025, primarily due to delays in the delivery of mixed towers and the ongoing development of its new energy business, which has not yet generated revenue [4][5][6] - The company has produced 25 mixed tower products by June 30, 2025, with deliveries expected to begin in the third quarter [4] - Compared to the same period last year, the company's losses have decreased by 25.75% to 42.67%, attributed to the sale of a poorly performing subsidiary and investment income from idle funds [6][7] Group 2 - The company has provided a guarantee for its wholly-owned subsidiary, Changhe Wind Power Equipment Co., Ltd., for a credit line of up to RMB 80 million from Shanghai Pudong Development Bank [11] - The guarantee amount for a performance bond related to a wind power project is RMB 17.71 million, which is within the approved limit for guarantees [12][20] - As of the announcement date, the total amount of guarantees provided by the company and its subsidiaries is RMB 26.74 million, representing 0.98% of the latest audited net assets [21][22]

Overview - Goldwind Technology Co., Ltd. has signed a parent company guarantee agreement to support its wholly-owned subsidiary, Goldwind Energy S.r.l., in fulfilling its obligations under a wind turbine supply and installation agreement with Draghiescu Partners S.r.l. in Romania [1][2] Guarantee Situation - The guarantee amount is set for the obligations of Goldwind Energy S.r.l. under the wind turbine supply and installation agreement, with the agreement signed on July 11, 2025, in Beijing [1] - Goldwind Energy S.r.l. has a debt-to-asset ratio exceeding 70%, which necessitates investor attention regarding guarantee risks [1] Financial Status of the Guaranteed Party - As of December 31, 2024, and May 31, 2025, Goldwind Energy S.r.l. reported: - Total assets of approximately 11.32 billion RMB and 42.13 billion RMB respectively - Total liabilities of approximately 11.52 billion RMB and 43.17 billion RMB respectively - Net assets of approximately -197 million RMB and -1.04 billion RMB respectively - Total revenue and profit figures were reported as zero and negative, indicating financial challenges [1] Main Content of the Guarantee Agreement - The guarantee will automatically extend for six months if the obligations under the wind turbine supply and installation agreement are not fulfilled by the expiration date due to reasons not attributable to the owner [2] Board of Directors' Opinion - The board approved a guarantee limit of 96 billion RMB for subsidiaries with a debt-to-asset ratio below 70% and 204 billion RMB for those above 70% [2][3] - The company is authorized to provide guarantees without further board meetings, as long as the guarantees fall within the approved limits [3] Cumulative External Guarantees - After this guarantee, the total external guarantee balance for the company and its subsidiaries will be approximately 288 million RMB, which is 0.75% of the latest audited net assets [3]

Group 1 - The company expects to achieve a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company between 35 million and 45 million yuan for the first half of 2025, marking a turnaround from a loss in the same period last year [1][2] - The net profit for the same period last year was a loss of 31.96 million yuan, with a total profit of -35.88 million yuan and a net profit excluding non-recurring gains and losses of -40.82 million yuan [1][2] - The main reasons for the turnaround include the release of production capacity for new products in the wind power sector and improved performance in the computing power segment [2] Group 2 - The wind power sector has seen a recovery in market conditions, leading to increased orders and gross profit for the company's wind power business [2] - The company's subsidiaries have significantly improved their capacity utilization rates, effectively reducing unit production costs [2] - The company has actively adjusted its product structure to focus on high value-added products, with new products gradually entering the market and contributing to performance [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [2][4][18] Core Viewpoints - The company has successfully established a new materials business unit, which is expected to create new profit growth points. The new materials include high-end polyurethane vibration damping products, silicone PACK functional materials, and HP-RTM PACK structural materials [3][5] - The company anticipates steady growth in its new materials business, with products such as polyurethane, silicone, and HP-RTM already achieving bulk supply, potentially enhancing profit margins [4] - The wind turbine blade orders are robust, with promising overseas market prospects. The wind power blade business is expected to see both volume and profit growth by 2025, with a factory in Vietnam projected to start production in early 2026 [4] - The rail transportation and industrial engineering businesses are expected to maintain stable revenue, with further growth anticipated post-2026 when production capacity is restored [4] - The automotive business is gradually shifting production capacity to lower-cost regions in Asia, with ongoing efforts to expand the customer base [4] Financial Projections - The company forecasts a net profit of 6.5 billion yuan for 2025, with slight upward adjustments for 2026 and 2027 to 8.4 billion yuan and 9.8 billion yuan, respectively, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of +46.7%, +28.8%, and +16.2% [4][18] - The projected revenue for 2025 is 22.75 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of +13.4%, and for 2026, it is expected to reach 25.43 billion yuan, with a growth of +11.8% [17][21] - The company's current price-to-earnings (PE) ratios are projected to be 16.7, 13.0, and 11.2 for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [4][18]

Group 1 - In August 2023, China Shipbuilding Technology (600072.SH) acquired 100% of China Haizhuang and 88.58% of China Ship Wind Power through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, aiming to enhance its renewable energy business [1] - The acquisition has drawn attention due to ongoing litigation involving a 50 million yuan contract dispute between Zhonghai Xinyuan and China Ship Wind Power Beijing, which could impact the company's profits significantly [1] - China Shipbuilding Technology's major shareholder is China Shipbuilding Group, with the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission as the actual controller, and wind power is projected to account for 56.04% of its revenue in 2024 [1] Group 2 - In 2024, after the restructuring of its wind power industry, the company reported total revenue of 8.423 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 41.85%, and a net profit of 146 million yuan, down 9.51%, indicating a continuous decline in performance [2] - The company has been actively selling assets to focus on its core business, with 16 announcements related to asset sales in 2024 alone, but these efforts have not reversed the downward trend in performance [2] - In Q1 2025, the company's net profit loss reached 310 million yuan, with a sales gross margin of 3.14%, the lowest since 2017, and total liabilities of 35.933 billion yuan, significantly exceeding net assets [2] Group 3 - The company's stock performance has weakened alongside its declining earnings, with a share price drop of 57.71% from its peak in July 2023 to around 13 yuan per share [5] - Institutional interest in the company has diminished, with no research reports published in the last two years, reflecting a lack of confidence in its future development [5] - Overall, the company faces multiple challenges, including potential impacts from ongoing litigation, continuous performance decline, low asset operational efficiency, and insufficient market confidence, leading to an uncertain future [5]

Group 1: Credit Bond ETF Impact - The report highlights the significant acceleration in the growth of credit bond ETFs since their issuance in January 2025, particularly after mid-May, with a notable upward trend in scale [2] - On June 6, eight benchmark credit bond ETFs were successfully included in the range of general pledged repo collateral, enhancing their appeal to institutional investors such as banks, insurance companies, and funds [2] - The report focuses on two key phases: the initial building period and the rapid growth period, noting that during the building period, the overall interest rates were rising, but the sample bonds' increase was lower than that of comparable corporate bonds [2] Group 2: HeSai (HSAI.O) Overview - HeSai, established in 2014, specializes in the research and manufacturing of LiDAR technology, with a global leading shipment volume and a strong patent portfolio [3] - The report projects that the global market for vehicle-mounted LiDAR could reach 50 billion RMB by 2030, while the market for robotic LiDAR is expected to reach 10 billion RMB in the same timeframe [3] - HeSai is expected to achieve total revenues of 3.15 billion, 4.57 billion, and 6.06 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 52%, 45%, and 33% respectively [4] Group 3: Daikin Heavy Industries (002487.SZ) Performance - Daikin Heavy Industries is projected to exceed expectations in its performance due to high shipment growth and increased foreign exchange gains, with a favorable outlook for European offshore wind orders [4] - The company is expected to see its net profit attributable to shareholders reach 1.069 billion, 1.461 billion, and 1.893 billion RMB from 2025 to 2027, corresponding to PE ratios of 20.1, 14.7, and 11.3 times [4] - The establishment of a floating center and active participation in global tenders are anticipated to enhance market share and net profit per pile [4]