期货研究 41 集运指数（欧线）：震荡中枢或下移，关注地缘扰 动 郑玉洁 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021502 zhengyujie@gtht.com 黄柳楠 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0015892 huangliunan@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 表 1：集运指数（欧线）基本面数据 、 合 约 昨日收盘价 日涨跌 昨日成交 昨日持仓 持仓变动 昨日成交/持仓 前日成交/持仓 EC2604 1,957.4 3.00% 36,453 17,696 -74 2.06 1.55 EC2606 2,692.9 14.40% 17,737 14,312 476 1.24 0.81 EC2608 2,564.0 9.74% 1,998 2,945 131 0.68 0.34 EC2610 1,648.0 6.72% 4,102 7,517 -4 0.55 0.33 单 位 SCFIS：欧洲航线 点 SCFIS：美西航线 点 单 位 SCFI：欧洲航线 $/TEU SCFI：美西航线 $/FEU $/40'GP $/20'GP Maersk 38 2700 1630 MSC 49 2840 1700 OOCL 50 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - Geopolitical factors support the container shipping trend, but it's difficult to see a sharp increase like before in the short term. The market fluctuates greatly, making it difficult to participate. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations or wait for opportunities and control risks [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - On Tuesday, the EC2604 contract of container shipping to Europe declined, closing at 1898.9, a 5.4% drop. The decline of far - month contracts was greater than that of near - month contracts [1] Important Information - The US government proposed a 15 - item conflict - ending plan to Iran through Pakistan, covering nuclear programs, missile capabilities, and regional issues. The US is considering a one - month cease - fire for further negotiations [1] - US President Trump said the US is communicating with the "right people", and Iran "wants to reach an agreement". He also claimed that Iran "has no leadership" and the US has "achieved great success" on the Iran issue [1] - Iran's new supreme leader's military advisor, Mohsen Rezaei, emphasized that Iran will stop the war only after getting all compensation, having all economic sanctions lifted, and obtaining international legal guarantees of US non - interference in Iran's affairs [1] Market Logic - On March 23, the SCFIS closed at 1693.26 points, an 8.8% increase from the previous period. The underlying spot index is still at a discount to the futures [1] - On March 20, the SCFI European line freight rate was 1636 US dollars/TEU, a 1.1% increase [1] - Maersk's week 14 offer for large containers is 2600 US dollars and 2700 US dollars for high - cube containers, a 400 - dollar increase. CMA CGM announced an increase of large containers to 3500 US dollars, slightly higher than the written increase of 3100 US dollars in late March. Yang Ming announced a list price of 2700 US dollars for large containers in April. The preliminary offer of the PA alliance may be at the level of 2700 US dollars for large containers. Some 0A voyages will use the end - of - March quotes at the beginning of April, and some voyages have special offers. The regular FAK is expected to be between 2800 - 3100 US dollars for large containers. Follow - up observation will focus on Maersk's week 15 opening and the PA alliance's price adjustment [1] - As of March 23, 2026, the total number of global operating container ships increased to 7,521, with a total global operating capacity of 33,924.968 TEU and a total operating ship tonnage of 402,768,003 tons. As of the week of March 23, the trans - Atlantic capacity was 169,459 TEU, the trans - Pacific capacity was 538,820 TEU, and the Far East - Europe capacity was 524,271 TEU [1] Trading Strategy - Geopolitical factors support the container shipping trend, but it's difficult to see a sharp increase like before in the short term. The market fluctuates greatly, making it difficult to participate. It is recommended to focus on short - term operations or wait for opportunities and control risks [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index, a rebound in A - shares, and a general rise in various assets. The market's risk preference is in a state of shock. For commodities, different sectors have different trends and influencing factors, such as steel prices being affected by cost and demand, and copper prices being affected by macro and fundamental factors [1][2][3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Comments 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US intends to propose a one - month cease - fire to discuss a 15 - point agreement with Iran. The possibility of the end of the US - Iran war has significantly increased, and the US dollar index is expected to weaken in the short term [1][12][15]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares had a volume - shrinking rebound due to the easing of the US - Iran situation. If the navigation of the Strait of Hormuz can be restored through negotiation, the stagflation trade may reverse, and equity opportunities will emerge. Currently, due to high uncertainty, it is recommended to wait and add positions on dips [2][17][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 17.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations and will conduct 500 billion yuan of MLF operations. The market has carried out TACO trading, with various assets generally rising. It is necessary to closely monitor the war situation and take a wait - and - see approach [3][19][20]. 3.2 Commodity News and Comments 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - Mexico and South Africa have made anti - dumping rulings on Chinese steel products. Steel prices are oscillating. The lack of clear fundamentals and the influence of Trump's statements and the Middle East situation have led to market fluctuations. The short - term price increase is mainly driven by cost, and the upside space is limited [4][22][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The power coal market in Shaanxi is strong. The coking coal spot market has a good trading atmosphere, with prices rising. In the short term, the international oil price and downstream replenishment support the coking coal price, but in the long term, the lack of terminal demand and sufficient supply may suppress the price [27][28][29]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - US and Vietnamese textile and clothing imports and exports have different trends. The domestic textile industry is in good condition, with sufficient orders. However, there are concerns about import yarn, policy tools, planting area, and the macro - economic situation. Zhengzhou cotton is expected to oscillate in the short term and may adjust downward from April to May [31][33][34]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The inventory of corn in the four northern ports has increased, and the sales progress of the grassroots has recovered. The supply is increasing, and the downstream demand has rigid support. The policy provides a bottom - support for the corn price. Corn is expected to maintain a high - level oscillation [35][37][38]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Dazhong Mining plans to invest in a lithium salt project. The lithium export ban in Zimbabwe has not been lifted as expected. The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to improve. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after a correction [39][40][41]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium rebounded slightly. The market follows macro - fluctuations. The supply is relatively rigid, and the demand has some support. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of platinum's oversold rebound, use options, and pay attention to the opportunity of long platinum and short palladium [41][42][43]. 3.2.7 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The lead price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The terminal consumption is facing the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [44][45]. 3.2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The zinc price is oscillating at a low level. The LME inventory and domestic social inventory are decreasing. The zinc price has long - term technical support. It is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [46][47]. 3.2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Atalaya's copper production in the first quarter is slightly lower than planned. The macro - factors are complex and changeable, and the fundamentals show internal - external differentiation. The copper price is expected to oscillate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage [48][51]. 3.2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin is at a discount. The domestic warehouse receipts are decreasing, and the spot is at a premium. The supply and demand are both weak, and the tin price is oscillating widely due to the influence of the US - Israel - Iran conflict [52][54]. 3.2.11 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The domestic LPG spot price is stable, with some low - price areas having a supplementary increase. The market is affected by the news of the US - Iran negotiation. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of price fluctuations [55]. 3.2.12 Energy Chemicals (LLDPE) - The inventory of polyethylene social sample warehouses is decreasing. The downstream enterprises maintain rigid procurement, and the supply has a gap. It is recommended to take a bullish - oscillating view [56][57][58]. 3.2.13 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - The inventory of asphalt refineries is decreasing, and the social inventory is increasing. The asphalt price is affected by the oil price and the geopolitical situation. It is expected to oscillate at a high level [58][59]. 3.2.14 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The US - Iran situation has a impact on the oil price and the container freight rate. The near - month and far - month contracts have different logics. It is recommended to maintain a bullish - oscillating view and pay attention to the US - Iran situation [60][61].

Core Viewpoint - The management of China COSCO Shipping Holdings (中远海控) warns of potential impacts from the uncertain developments in the Middle East, indicating that while current spillover effects are limited, prolonged disruptions could exacerbate the situation [1] Group 1: Financial Impact - The company anticipates an increase in fuel costs by $10 per ton, which will cumulatively add $78 million to expenses [1] - The brokerage firm has revised the company's earnings forecast for 2026 to 2027 down by 2% to 13% [1] Group 2: Stock Rating and Price Target - The target price for the company's stock has been raised from HKD 14 to HKD 15, while maintaining a "Hold" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent developments in the shipping industry, particularly focusing on the VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) transportation index and its fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [1]. Shipping Sector Summary - The VLCC transportation index for West Africa to Ningbo, China, has increased by 3.23% to 150.09 WS, despite a monthly decrease of 6.52%, indicating a significant annual increase of 24.85% [5]. - Key players in the core oil transportation sector include COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy Shipping [5]. - The article highlights various shipping segments, including: - **Product Tankers and MR Fleet**: China Merchants Jinling Shipyard [5]. - **Container Shipping**: Major companies include COSCO Shipping Holdings, COSCO Shipping Development, and Jinjing Shipping [5]. - **Dry Bulk Shipping**: Notable firms are China National Offshore Oil Corporation and Haitong Development [5]. - **Special/Chemical/Roll-on Roll-off Shipping**: Key players include COSCO Shipping Special, Xingtong Co., and Shenghang Co. [5]. Port Operations Summary - The article outlines significant port operations in various regions: - **Yangtze River Delta Hub**: Includes Nanjing Port, Lianyungang, Shanghai Port Group, and Ningbo Port [5]. - **Bohai Rim Hub**: Notable ports are Tangshan Port, Tianjin Port, and Qinhuangdao Port [5]. - **Southwest Hub**: Key ports include Guangzhou Port and Zhuhai Port [5]. - **Yangtze River Inland Ports**: Chongqing Port is highlighted [5]. Shipping Equipment and Logistics Summary - The core equipment manufacturing sector features companies like CIMC (China International Marine Containers), East China Heavy Machinery, Weichai Heavy Machinery, and Hangzhou Advance Gearbox Group [5]. - The energy and special equipment sector includes firms like Furui Special Equipment and Xizhuang Co. [5].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The EC2604 contract is approaching delivery, and attention should be paid to the actual cargo - collection price changes. The freight rate of the European line may be affected by the increase in supply pressure caused by the transfer of Middle - East operating vessels to the European line. The subsequent game point is the actual demand in April under high capacity. The valuation of the April contract is gradually becoming clear, but the volatility of the EC2604 contract may be amplified due to geopolitical risks [4][5]. - The contracts for the relatively peak seasons of June, July, and August have strong expectations. The reasons include the low probability of the Suez Canal's reopening in the first half of the year, the relatively small delivery pressure of ultra - large container ships in the first half of 2026, and the relatively high year - on - year growth rate of the monthly demand from Asia to Europe. However, the actual freight rates in the future are still unknown, and investors need to respond flexibly [6]. - The Houthi rebels' possible blockade of the Bab el - Mandeb Strait may drive up the prices of far - month contracts. Although the number of container ships passing through the Gulf of Aden has decreased significantly, the blockade will impact the global supply chain and drive up the freight rates of global shipping routes [7]. - The trading strategy is to go long on EC2606 and short on EC2610, and there is no unilateral strategy for now [9]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Prices - As of March 23, 2026, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures was 46,216.00 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 63,634.00 lots. The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, EC2607, EC2608, EC2609, EC2610, and EC2512 contracts were 1957.40, 2378.80, 2692.90, 2783.00, 2564.00, 1835.40, 1648.00, and 1815.00 respectively [8]. 3.2 Spot Prices - On March 20, the SCFI (Shanghai - Europe route) price was 1636 US dollars/TEU, the SCFI (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) price was 2054 US dollars/FEU, and the SCFI (Shanghai - East Coast of the United States) price was 2922 US dollars/FEU. On March 23, the SCFIS (Shanghai - Europe) was 1693.26 points, and the SCFIS (Shanghai - West Coast of the United States) was 1024.11 points [8]. 3.3 Container Ship Capacity Supply - Static supply: As of February 28, 2026, 27 container ships with a total capacity of 174,232 TEU were delivered in 2026. Among them, 6 ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU and a total capacity of 86,000 TEU were delivered, and 1 ship with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU and a capacity of 17,148 TEU was delivered. In terms of delivery expectations, for ships with a capacity of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU, 679,000 TEU (46 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 944,600 TEU (64 ships) in 2027, 1,224,000 TEU (84 ships) in 2028, and 415,400 TEU (29 ships) in 2029. For ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU, 192,900 TEU (8 ships) will be delivered in the remaining months of 2026, 862,800 TEU (40 ships) in 2027, 1,603,000 TEU (80 ships) in 2028, and 1,636,000 TEU (81 ships) in 2029. The delivery pressure of ultra - large ships in 2026 is relatively small, and the annual delivery volume of ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU in 2027, 2028, and 2029 exceeds 40 ships. Only 4 ships with a capacity of over 17,000 TEU were delivered in the first half of 2026 [2][3]. - Dynamic supply: The average weekly capacity of the China - European base port in the remaining 2 weeks of March was 296,500 TEU. The capacities in Week 13 and Week 14 were 292,000 and 300,900 TEU respectively. The average weekly capacity in April was 311,900 TEU, and the capacities in Week 15, Week 16, Week 17, and Week 18 were 337,000, 266,700, 306,300, and 337,400 TEU respectively. The average monthly capacity in May was 305,700 TEU, and the capacities in Week 19, Week 20, Week 21, and Week 22 were 338,600, 300,900, 289,700, and 293,900 TEU respectively. There were 3 TBNs and 2 blank sailings in April, and 6 TBNs in May [3]. 3.4 Supply Chain - The Houthi rebels in Yemen claim that they may block the Bab el - Mandeb Strait, which may drive up the far - month contracts. Since December 2023, the number of ships passing through the Gulf of Aden has decreased significantly, from 80 per day to about 30 per day. The number of container ships passing through has decreased from more than 20 per day to about 5 per day, and the TEU has decreased from more than 200,000 TEU per day to about 50,000 TEU per day [7]. 3.5 Demand and European Economy - The year - on - year growth rate of the monthly demand from Asia to Europe has been relatively high, with the year - on - year growth rate of container trade volume in most months exceeding 10%. After the outbreak of the Israel - Iran conflict, new expectations have emerged for the peak - season contracts. Attention should be paid to whether developed countries in Europe and the United States will increase imports of domestic goods due to concerns about future inflation after the sharp increase in oil prices, which may drive up domestic export demand. At the same time, the expectation of a global economic recession caused by the excessive increase in oil prices should be guarded against [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - On Tuesday, the futures prices of the container shipping index (European route) declined collectively. The main contract EC2604 fell 5.4%, and the far - month contracts fell between 2 - 7%. The latest SCFIS European route settlement freight rate index was 1693.26, up 136.77 points from last week, a month - on - month increase of 8.8% [1]. - The geopolitical situation has shown signs of deterioration, but the detour expectation is gradually being realized. The fundamental pattern of the shipping industry remains unchanged, and the upward space in March and April is limited. It is difficult for shipping companies' price increase announcements to be implemented. The main logic is supported by news. Investors are advised to be cautious, pay attention to the operation rhythm and risk control, and track shipping company quotes, cargo volume data, and the persistence of the US - Iran conflict and the progress of the subsequent Iranian regime transition [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Data - EC main contract closing price: 1898.900, down 108.3; EC second - main contract closing price: 2439.2, down 158.6 [1]. - EC2604 - EC2606 spread: - 540.30, up 195.20; EC2604 - EC2608 spread: - 511.90, up 94.70 [1]. - EC contract basis: - 205.64, up 58.50 [1]. - Futures positions (lots): 15267, EC main contract open interest decreased by 2429 [1]. 3.2 Spot Market Data - SCFIS (European route) (weekly): 1693.26, up 136.77; SCFIS (US West route) (weekly): 1024.11, down 85.00 [1]. - SCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1706.95, down 3.40; container ship capacity (10,000 TEUs): 1227.97, unchanged [1]. - CCFI (composite index) (weekly): 1120.61, up 48.45; CCFI (European route) (weekly): 1463.75, up 18.88 [1]. - Baltic Dry Index (daily): 2056.00, down 19.00; Panamax Freight Index (daily): 1904.00, down 16.00 [1]. - Average charter price (Panamax ship): 0.00, unchanged; average charter price (Cape - size ship): 24559.00, up 327.00 [1]. 3.3 Industry News - The US - Iran negotiation is in a state of uncertainty. Trump said the US and Iran had "strong" talks and formed the main points of an agreement, and would suspend attacking Iranian energy facilities for 5 days. However, Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US [1]. - A senior Iranian official said Trump has no right to set conditions or deadlines for the negotiation. Iran and the US have exchanged information through Egypt and Turkey to ease tensions, but the US has not accepted Iran's two core conditions [1]. - Goldman Sachs said that due to the soaring oil and gas prices, the probability of the US economy falling into a recession in the next 12 months has risen to 30%, 5 percentage points higher than the previous estimate [1]. 3.4 Key Events to Watch - UK February CPI monthly rate at 15:00 on March 25 [1]. - UK February retail price index monthly rate at 15:00 on March 25 [1]. - Germany March IFO business climate index at 17:00 on March 25 [1]. - US February import price index monthly rate at 20:30 on March 25 [1].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the implications of the escalating US-Iran conflict on the shipping industry, particularly focusing on China Merchants Energy Shipping Company (招商轮船) and its strategic positioning in the market amidst geopolitical tensions [3][8]. Group 1: Company Performance and Market Reaction - On March 16, 2023, China Merchants Energy Shipping's VLCC "Kai Jing" successfully transported 2.2 million barrels of crude oil from the Middle East, marking a significant event as it was the first Chinese VLCC to do so since the conflict began [5]. - Following this event, the A-share shipping sector saw a rapid increase, with China Merchants Energy Shipping's stock rising over 9%, contributing to a nearly 90% year-to-date increase [5]. - The company reported a net profit of 6-6.6 billion yuan for the previous year, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 17%-29%, with a remarkable fourth-quarter growth rate of 55%-90% [7]. Group 2: Business Resilience and Strategy - China Merchants Energy Shipping is characterized as a resilient player in the cyclical shipping industry, having maintained profitability during downturns when other major competitors faced significant losses [10][12]. - The company has successfully implemented a diversified business model that includes oil tankers, dry bulk carriers, and LNG, allowing it to hedge against market fluctuations [15][21]. - The oil transportation segment, particularly VLCC, is highlighted as a key growth driver, with projected operating profit growth of 200%-230% [17]. Group 3: Capital Structure and Financial Health - Despite strong operational performance, the company faces challenges related to its extensive business operations and capital expenditures, which have led to increased financial pressure [24][28]. - The failed attempt to spin off non-core businesses has resulted in a heavier burden of capital expenditure and liquidity pressure on the company [26][27]. - As of Q3 2025, the company's short-term borrowings reached 11.67 billion yuan, with a liquidity ratio dropping to 0.44, indicating tightening short-term solvency [30][31]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market's initial optimism regarding the benefits of the US-Iran conflict has been tempered by concerns over the company's capital structure and internal management decisions, such as executive stock sell-offs shortly after positive earnings forecasts [38][44]. - The volatility in oil prices and shipping routes due to geopolitical tensions raises questions about the sustainability of profit margins and operational reliability in the long term [43][44].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The short - term investment rating for the container shipping industry is weak [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The Middle East situation is volatile, affecting the market. The release of information about a potential US - Iran agreement led to a significant drop in overnight crude oil prices, which is expected to cause short - term weakness in container shipping prices. Airlines' price quotes continue to vary, and the implementation of these quotes should be monitored. The market is highly volatile, making it difficult to participate, so short - term operations or waiting for opportunities while controlling risks are recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On Monday, the container shipping European line EC2604 contract rose to 1957.4, a 3.0% increase. The far - month EC2606 contract once hit the daily limit [1] 3.2 Important Information - US President Trump said the US had "strong" talks with Iran and reached an agreement to suspend attacks on its energy facilities for 5 days. He is negotiating a broader agreement, and an agreement may be reached within 5 days or less. However, Iran has repeatedly denied having talks with the US, stating that Trump's remarks aim to lower energy prices and gain time for military operations [1] - Affected by Trump's remarks on US - Iran negotiations, global financial markets were in turmoil. US and Brent crude oil prices dropped by over 9%. The US Treasury bond yield turned from a sharp increase to a decrease, with the 2 - year US Treasury bond yield fluctuating by over 22 basis points. Precious metals rebounded, with COMEX silver closing down 0.49% (after dropping over 12% earlier) and COMEX gold down 3.6% (after dropping over 10% earlier) [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On March 23, the SCFIS reported 1693.26 points, an 8.8% increase from the previous period. The underlying spot index is still at a discount to the futures price [1] - On March 20, the SCFI European line freight rate was 1636 US dollars/TEU, a 1.1% increase [1] - The spot quotes: Maersk's wk14 large container price is 2600 US dollars and high - cube container is 2700 US dollars, an increase of 400 US dollars; CMA CGM announced an increase of large container price to 3500 US dollars, slightly higher than the written - announced 3100 US dollars in late March. The market is cautious about the price increase in early April. The PA Alliance's quotes should be focused on to see if they continue the low - price strategy [1] - According to Aphaliner's latest data, as of March 23, 2026, the total number of global operating container ships increased to 7,521, with a total global operating capacity of 33,924.968 TEU and a total operating ship tonnage of 402,768,003 tons. As of the week of March 23, the trans - Atlantic capacity was 169,459 TEU, the trans - Pacific capacity was 538,820 TEU, and the Far East - Europe capacity was 524,271 TEU [1] - On March 20, the container shipping index for the Far East - Northern Europe route closed at 2679 US dollars/FEU, a 1.13% (or 30 US dollars/FEU) increase from the previous value. The Far East - US West Coast route closed at 2057 US dollars/FEU, unchanged from the previous value [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - Due to the repeated Middle East situation and the significant drop in overnight crude oil prices, container shipping prices are expected to be short - term weak. Airlines' price quotes are still different, and their implementation should be monitored. The market is highly volatile, so short - term operations or waiting for opportunities while controlling risks are recommended [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The situation in the Middle East is tense, with the Iran - Israel conflict escalating and then cooling down. The Iran situation mainly affects crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and rising oil prices have a driving effect on oil - chemical and oil - seed sectors, also causing concerns about inflation and economic recession [1]. - Global interest rate hike expectations are rising. The Fed, BoE, BoJ, and ECB have different stances on interest rates, and the rise in oil prices and interest rate hike expectations form a copper - oil seesaw pattern [2]. - China's domestic policies are pro - active, with economic growth targeted at 4.5% - 5%, and various fiscal measures are in place. The economic structure shows differentiation, with different performance in manufacturing, trade, consumption, and real estate [3]. - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. There are anti - correlations between the non - energy and energy sectors, and different commodity sectors have different focuses [4]. - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The Iran - Israel conflict has led to damage to Qatar's LNG facilities. The US may lift sanctions on Iranian oil, and the situation has some uncertainties. The Iran situation mainly impacts crude oil, LPG, and shipping sectors, and rising oil prices drive oil - chemical and oil - seed sectors, also causing inflation and recession concerns. If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked for a long time, oil prices and related sectors may rise further. Disruptions in Middle East natural gas supply may have a far - reaching impact on Asia - Pacific countries [1]. Global Interest Rate Situation - The Fed maintains the interest rate at 3.5% - 3.75%, and Powell will not leave the council before the investigation ends and won't cut interest rates until inflation improves. The BoE maintains the interest rate, removes the "rate cut" wording, and is ready to act on inflation. The BoJ keeps the policy unchanged, and the ECB maintains the interest rate at 2% but has a tougher stance. The rise in oil prices and interest rate hike expectations form a copper - oil seesaw pattern [2]. Domestic Policy and Economic Situation - China's 2026 government work report sets the economic growth target at 4.5% - 5%, with a deficit rate of about 4% and a deficit scale of 5.89 trillion yuan. The general public budget expenditure will reach 30 trillion yuan. Special treasury bonds of 1.3 trillion yuan will be issued, and 2500 billion yuan will be used for consumer goods replacement. In February, China's official manufacturing PMI was 49, non - manufacturing PMI was 49.5. Exports and imports increased significantly. Consumption and industrial added value showed growth, while real estate investment and sales declined [3]. Commodity Market - In the short term, the Iran situation and oil prices dominate commodity fluctuations. There is an anti - correlation between the non - energy and energy sectors. The IEA releases a record - high 4 billion barrels of crude oil reserves, and the US plans to release 1.72 billion barrels of strategic oil reserves. Oil price increases drive oil - chemical products. The EU simplifies gas import rules, Russia may cut off gas supply to Europe, and South Korea starts a resource security crisis warning. Black commodities focus on domestic policy expectations and low - valuation repair [4]. Strategy - For commodities and stock index futures, it is recommended to go long on stock indices, precious metals, and some chemical products [5]. Key News - Trump claims to be negotiating with Iran, but all related information is released by the US. Iran has control over the Strait of Hormuz and will take retaliatory measures if its power system is attacked. The US allows the sale of Iranian oil in transit. Fed officials have different views on interest rate hikes and cuts [6].