Company Overview - Tongcheng Travel is a leading OTA in China's lower-tier markets, benefiting from the tourism boom and backed by major shareholders Tencent and Ctrip, which provide significant traffic and supply chain advantages [1][2] - The company was formed from the merger of Tongcheng and eLong, positioning itself among the top three in the OTA industry [1] Financial Performance - In 2024, the company is expected to achieve revenue of 17.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, and an adjusted net profit of 2.79 billion yuan, up 26.7% year-on-year [1] Industry Dynamics - The online travel market is projected to exceed 1 trillion yuan in 2024, driven by high demand in the cultural tourism sector and low penetration rates in lower-tier cities [1][2] - The current market structure is characterized by one dominant player (Ctrip) and several strong competitors (Tongcheng, Meituan, Fliggy) engaging in differentiated competition [2] Competitive Advantages - The company has over 80% of its users from non-first-tier cities, allowing it to capitalize on the growth potential in lower-tier markets [2] - Deep collaboration with Tencent and Ctrip enhances the company's customer acquisition and supply chain capabilities, providing a competitive edge [2] Future Growth Prospects - The company is actively expanding into hotel management and vacation services, as well as international markets, which are expected to contribute to revenue growth [2] - Projections indicate that the company will achieve net profits of 2.707 billion, 3.369 billion, and 4.082 billion yuan from 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios decreasing over the years [2]

Core Points - The agreement between China and Malaysia on mutual visa exemption for holders of ordinary and official passports will take effect on July 17, 2025, marking a new phase in bilateral relations and enhancing people-to-people exchanges and economic cooperation [3] - The agreement allows for visa-free entry for Chinese and Malaysian passport holders for stays not exceeding 30 days, with a cumulative stay of 90 days within 180 days, for various purposes including tourism and business [3] - As of July 2023, China has established mutual visa exemption agreements with Singapore, Thailand, and Brunei among the ten ASEAN countries, with 47 countries benefiting from unilateral visa exemption policies to China [4] Industry Insights - Malaysia has emerged as a top travel destination for Chinese tourists this summer, with hotel bookings increasing by 43% year-on-year [4] - Kuala Lumpur, Tawau, and Langkawi are the most popular cities for Chinese travelers, with Kuala Lumpur being the top city for outbound travel from China according to recent data [4] - In the first four months of 2023, 1.4 million Chinese tourists visited Malaysia, a 37.8% increase compared to the same period in 2024, with projections suggesting that the total number of Chinese tourists to Malaysia could reach 5 million this year [4]

Core Insights - In the first half of 2025, 55 listed companies in the cultural tourism sector were analyzed, with 31 experiencing an increase in market value and 24 seeing a decline [3][18] - The highest market value increases were recorded by Wanda Hotel Development at 173.65%, Feiyang Group at 140.7%, and Jinma Amusement at 92.68% [3][4] - Conversely, the largest declines were seen in Lujing Technology at -48.03%, Lingnan Holdings at -43.34%, and Yingxin Development at -26.03% [6][7] Market Value Changes - As of June 30, 2025, the total market value of Wanda Hotel Development was 2.699 billion, while Feiyang Group and Jinma Amusement had market values of 0.126 billion and 4.521 billion respectively [4][7] - Ctrip led the market with a total value of 274.37 billion, followed by China Duty Free at 124.57 billion and Huazhu at 74.53 billion [8][9] - The overall market value of the remaining 52 companies was 390 billion, indicating a significant concentration of value among the top three companies [8] Sector Performance - The cultural tourism sector showed a mixed performance, with scenic area companies generally performing well, such as Haichang Ocean Park with a 39.1% increase and Zhangjiajie with a 28.55% increase [12][13] - Hotel companies also showed varied results, with Huazhu leading at 745.31 billion, while Atour saw a 20.41% increase [14][15] - Online travel companies experienced declines, with Ctrip and Tuniu dropping by 14.94% and 17.79% respectively, while Tongcheng saw a modest increase of 6.08% [16][17] Company-Specific Developments - Wanda Hotel Development's significant increase in market value was attributed to the sale of its subsidiary Wanda Hotel Management for 2.5 billion, which is expected to improve its financial structure [6][7] - Lujing Technology's decline was linked to negative media coverage regarding its management capabilities in scenic area operations [7][8] - The overall performance of cultural tourism companies reflects ongoing operational pressures, with some companies like Fosun Tourism Culture delisting from the Hong Kong stock market [18][19]

Core Insights - The BilibiliWorld2025 (BW2025) event will take place in Shanghai from July 11 to 13, attracting a large number of young attendees, particularly from the post-00s and post-05s generations [1][3] Group 1: Event Impact on Tourism - During the BW2025 event week, Shanghai saw a 35% month-on-month increase in cultural and tourism bookings, with train ticket searches rising by 36% and flight bookings increasing by nearly 50% year-on-year [3][5] - The demand for high-end hotels near the event venue surged, with a staggering 475% increase in advance bookings for the summer [3][5] - The peak travel day for post-00s to Shanghai was July 10, the day before the event commenced, indicating strong interest from this demographic [5] Group 2: Demographic Insights - Major sources of flight bookings for the event included first- and second-tier cities, with rapid growth from third- and fourth-tier cities. Cities like Shenzhen and Wuhan saw nearly 100% growth in flight bookings from post-00s [5][6] - The BW2025 event has led to increased local spending in transportation, accommodation, dining, and entertainment, with food searches near the "Shanghai Bai Lian ZX" area rising over 800% in the first week of July [6] Group 3: Market Trends - The number of pan-ACG (Anime, Comic, and Games) users in China is projected to reach 503 million by 2024, with the ACG industry expected to exceed 270 billion yuan, making China the largest ACG market globally [6][7] - Searches for "二次元" (two-dimensional) related services, such as themed cafes and beauty services, have seen significant increases, with searches for "二次元咖啡厅" rising over 202% and "二次元女孩美甲美睫" increasing by nearly 80% [6]

Core Insights - Paramount Pictures is set to release the movie "The Smurfs" in China on July 18, 2023, celebrating the beloved characters created by Belgian cartoonist Peyo [1] - Airbnb is offering a unique immersive experience in Belgium, the birthplace of the Smurfs, allowing families to engage in activities inspired by the new film [1][6] Group 1: Experience Details - The Smurfs immersive experience will take place on August 3, 2025, where two families will participate in a four-hour free event [3] - Activities include exploring the forest, tasting "Smurfberry" drinks, creating personalized Smurf hats, practicing archery, enjoying a themed picnic, and learning dance moves from the film [3][4] - The experience aims to provide travelers with a chance to explore hidden gems and local culture, enhancing the connection between the film and real-life adventures [6] Group 2: Marketing and Collaboration - Airbnb's data indicates that over 80% of family travelers consider local experiences when planning trips, reflecting a growing trend towards nature and unique experiences [3] - The collaboration between Paramount Pictures and Airbnb aims to bring the magic of the Smurfs from the big screen into the real world, promoting the film's themes of individuality and positivity [6] - Reservations for the Smurfs experience will open on July 16, 2025, with limited spots available, emphasizing the exclusivity of the event [6]

Core Insights - The summer tourism market for 2025 has officially started, with family travel, particularly for parents with children, becoming the dominant force driving market growth [1][2] - The overall market size is experiencing growth, with significant increases in bookings for flights, hotels, and tickets, particularly for long-distance travel and international destinations [1][2] Group 1: Family Travel Dominance - The family travel segment, especially those traveling with children, is a key driver of market growth, with parent-child travelers accounting for over 34% of domestic airline passengers [2][3] - Popular destinations for family travel include Beijing, Shanghai, Chengdu, and Kunming, with theme parks like Shanghai Disneyland and Beijing Universal Studios being top choices [2][3] Group 2: Travel Timing and Trends - The peak travel period for family trips is predicted to be from mid-July to mid-August, aligning with school vacation schedules, leading to increased flight prices during this time [3] - There is a notable increase in first-time flyers, with an estimated 6 million expected to fly for the first time this summer, indicating a growing demand for related services [6] Group 3: Diverse Travel Options - Families are seeking high cost-performance and flexible travel options, leading to a rise in multi-modal travel solutions, such as connecting flights and combinations of air and ground transport [4][5] - The popularity of self-driving trips is also increasing, with significant growth in car rental orders, particularly in regions like Sanya, Chengdu, and Qingdao [5] Group 4: Quality and Experience Focus - There is a growing demand for quality travel experiences, with high-star hotel bookings increasing by over 20% and deep travel experiences gaining popularity [7][8] - The trend towards long-term stays is evident, with a 40% increase in long-term rental orders in the vacation rental sector, highlighting a shift in consumer preferences towards immersive travel experiences [7][8] Group 5: Young Consumer Behavior - The university student demographic is showing significant growth in travel participation, with a 77% increase in travel numbers and a 6% rise in average spending [8] - The focus on quality experiences over traditional travel styles is becoming more pronounced among younger travelers [8]

Core Insights - The report highlights the strong growth potential of Tongcheng Travel, a leading OTA in China's lower-tier markets, benefiting from the tourism boom and support from major shareholders Tencent and Ctrip [3][6][8] - In 2024, Tongcheng Travel is projected to achieve revenue of CNY 17.34 billion, a year-on-year increase of 45.8%, and an adjusted net profit of CNY 2.79 billion, up 26.7% year-on-year [6] Company Overview - Tongcheng Travel is formed from the merger of Tongcheng and eLong, positioning itself as a top three player in the OTA industry, providing comprehensive travel services including transportation and accommodation bookings [6][8] - The company has a significant user base from non-first-tier cities, allowing it to capitalize on the growth in lower-tier markets [8] Industry Analysis - The online travel market is expected to exceed CNY 1 trillion in 2024, driven by high demand in the cultural tourism sector and low penetration rates in lower-tier cities [7] - The current market structure is characterized by a dominant player (Ctrip) and several strong competitors (Tongcheng, Meituan, Feizhu), with a focus on differentiated competition [7] - The bargaining power in the transportation sector is low due to high supplier concentration, while the accommodation sector has a higher bargaining power with lower supplier concentration [7]

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to the company, with an initial coverage date of July 8, 2025 [1][4]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading player in the domestic OTA market, particularly benefiting from the growth in lower-tier markets and the overall tourism boom. It is backed by major shareholders Tencent and Trip.com, which provide significant advantages in customer acquisition and supply chain resources [4][6][9]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company, formed from the merger of Tongcheng and eLong, is a top-tier one-stop travel service platform in China, successfully ranking among the top three in the OTA industry [17]. Shareholding Structure - The company has a concentrated shareholding structure, with major shareholders Tencent and Trip.com holding 24.07% and 20.46% respectively, facilitating deep collaboration in business operations [18][21]. Business Breakdown - The core OTA business includes transportation and accommodation bookings, contributing approximately 50% and 30% of revenue respectively. The company is expanding into hotel management and vacation services, enhancing its competitive edge [23]. Financial Performance - The company has shown strong recovery post-pandemic, with revenues of RMB 11.896 billion in 2023 and projected growth to RMB 19.624 billion by 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 80.7% and 45.8% respectively [8][31]. Adjusted net profit is expected to reach RMB 27.07 billion in 2025 [6]. OTA Industry Insights - The online travel market in China is projected to exceed RMB 1 trillion in 2024, with a significant increase in online transaction rates, indicating a robust recovery and growth potential in the sector [39][46]. Competitive Landscape - The OTA market is characterized by a high concentration of major players, with Trip.com leading the market share. The competitive dynamics are stable, with companies leveraging unique strengths to capture different market segments [49][52]. Pricing Power - The pricing power of the company is influenced by the concentration of upstream resources, particularly in transportation and accommodation sectors, which affects commission rates and overall profitability [56][59].

Group 1: Market Dynamics - The local lifestyle sector, including travel and accommodation, is becoming a key battleground for major players like JD and Alibaba, as they seek to tap into the lucrative opportunities presented by the travel industry [1][4] - Ctrip's core OTA business is projected to exceed 1.2 trillion yuan in transaction volume by 2024, with Q1 2025 revenue reaching 13.8 billion yuan and a net profit of 4.3 billion yuan, showcasing the sector's profitability [1][3] - The hotel industry is experiencing a structural adjustment, with increased competition and a shift in revenue logic from average daily rate (ADR) to occupancy rate (OCC) [6][12] Group 2: Hotel Industry Challenges - Despite a 14.8% increase in domestic travel demand, hotel brands are struggling to capture profits, with major players like Huazhu and Jinjiang facing declining revenue growth rates [2][8] - High commission rates from OTAs are squeezing hotel profits, with over 60% of high-star hotels reporting that OTA commissions severely compress their profit margins [7][11] - The reliance on OTAs for customer acquisition is creating a vicious cycle for smaller hotels, leading to increased marketing costs without guaranteed profitability [7][10] Group 3: Strategic Responses - Major hotel brands are seeking to reduce their dependence on OTAs by increasing their own membership base, with Huazhu aiming for 85% of its bookings to come from direct channels [8][14] - High-end hotels like Marriott are embracing partnerships with OTAs to attract younger consumers and diversify their service offerings, indicating a shift in strategy to enhance customer engagement [9][10] - JD's entry into the travel sector aims to disrupt the OTA market by offering a zero-commission model and leveraging its supply chain to reduce costs for hotels [12][13] Group 4: Future Outlook - The competition in the OTA market is expected to evolve beyond price wars to focus on ecosystem, service, technology, and innovation capabilities, emphasizing the importance of member value [14][15] - The online travel market in China is projected to exceed 1.5 trillion yuan by 2025, with Ctrip expected to hold a 56% market share, indicating a stable yet competitive landscape [12]

Core Viewpoint - Ctrip (TCOM) shows a positive stock performance with a 2.76% increase, reaching $60.36 per share, and a total market capitalization of $39.452 billion as of July 7 [1] Financial Performance - As of March 31, 2025, Ctrip's total revenue reached 13.83 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.17% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.277 billion RMB, showing a slight decrease of 0.81% year-on-year [1] Company Overview - Ctrip Group Limited is a leading one-stop travel platform globally, offering a comprehensive range of travel products, services, and differentiated travel content [1] - Established in 1999, Ctrip went public on NASDAQ in 2003 and was listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2021 [1] - The company operates major brands including Ctrip, Qunar, Trip.com, and Skyscanner, and aims to provide high-quality travel booking experiences [1] Service Offerings - Ctrip's accommodation services offer over 1.7 million options worldwide, including hotels, motels, resorts, apartments, and other properties [1] - The flight service provides ticketing from over 600 airlines, covering more than 3,400 airports across over 220 countries and regions [2] - Trip.com offers products and services in 24 languages and 35 local currencies [3] - Skyscanner provides services in over 50 countries and regions, supporting more than 35 languages [4] Employee and Operational Insights - As of December 31, 2023, the company employed 36,249 staff members [4]