注：指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化 而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金 业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨 慎。 每日经济新闻 （责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 华鑫证券指出，2025年2月以来，全国生猪出栏价回落至14元/公斤区间并持续震荡，主要受10个月 前能繁母猪产能变动影响。尽管2024年5月行业进入增产阶段，但产能绝对值仍处低位，因规模场资金 紧张扩产谨慎，散户产能退出或转向育肥。预计2025年猪价将呈现"淡季不淡、旺季不旺"的弱周期走 势，行业分化加剧，成本领先企业将保持盈利。 养殖ETF（159865）跟踪中证畜牧指数（代码：930707），选取沪深市场中涉及畜禽饲料、畜禽养 殖、畜禽疫苗和肉 ...

Group 1 - Recent pork prices have unexpectedly risen, with analysts suggesting that this short-term increase may not alter the downward trend expected in the future [1][2] - As of April 21, the price of live pigs reached 15.01 yuan/kg, marking a nearly 4% increase from 14.44 yuan/kg on February 13 [1] - Huatai Securities attributes the recent price increase to seasonal factors and inventory adjustments, while also noting that the supply of pigs is expected to increase in the future due to rising breeding stock and piglet numbers [1] Group 2 - The current pig market is characterized by weak supply and demand, with prices remaining stable due to the influence of secondary fattening [2] - As temperatures rise, the demand for pork may weaken, leading to a forecast of fluctuating prices in the short term [2] - Both Huatai Futures and Ruida Futures anticipate that while short-term prices may remain stable, there are medium-term risks of price declines due to potential increases in supply [2]

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan province is making significant strides in transforming from an agricultural powerhouse to an agricultural stronghold, focusing on enhancing rural industries to reduce urban-rural disparities and promote common prosperity [1][2]. Agricultural Production - In 2022, Sichuan's total grain output reached 726.8 billion jin, with an average yield of 378.2 kg per mu, both setting historical records [1]. - The province maintained its position as the top producer of live pigs, with an output of 61.496 million heads [1]. Rural Industry Development - Sichuan is actively promoting rural industries to increase farmers' income, achieving a 6.6% growth in per capita disposable income for rural residents, surpassing the 1.9% increase for urban residents [1]. - In 2024, the total planting area for citrus in Pujiang County is expected to reach 445,000 mu, with an estimated output of 1.03 million tons and a production value of 7.282 billion yuan [2]. Innovative Agricultural Practices - The "Two Replacements" initiative in Pujiang County, which promotes organic fertilizers over chemical fertilizers and green pest control over chemical methods, has led to over 75% coverage of organic fertilizer use and over 70% for green pest control, resulting in a market price increase of over 30% for the produced goods [3]. - The county has also developed sustainable agricultural practices, such as rice-vegetable rotation and intercropping, achieving high yields and profitability [4]. Industry Clusters and Value Chains - Sichuan is focusing on building agricultural industry clusters, with a goal to create a comprehensive agricultural industry system that includes livestock, grain, and various specialty crops [6][7]. - The "1+1+8" strategy aims to enhance the agricultural value chain by integrating upstream production, midstream processing, and downstream marketing [7]. Farmer Benefit Mechanisms - The province is establishing mechanisms to ensure that farmers benefit from industrial growth, promoting models that connect small farmers with larger markets through cooperatives and direct purchasing agreements [9]. - In 2024, the East Slope District's pickled vegetable industry is projected to generate a comprehensive output value of 22.5 billion yuan, showcasing the economic impact of local agricultural enterprises [6]. Employment and Income Generation - The establishment of agricultural industry strong towns and clusters has created over 603,000 jobs, with participating farmers earning an average disposable income of 26,500 yuan, higher than the local average [12]. - Successful models of income generation include direct procurement agreements between processing companies and farmers, which have significantly increased farmers' incomes [10][11].

四川发改委发布生猪价格过度下跌情形二级预警公告 金十期货4月21日讯，据我委监测，截至4月17日，全省平均猪粮比价为5.86∶1，已连续3周处于5:1-6:1， 进入《四川省生猪猪肉市场价格调控预案》设定的价格过度下跌情形二级预警区间。建议养殖场（户） 科学安排生产经营决策，将生猪产能保持在合理水平。下一步，我委将继续密切关注生猪市场价格走 势，认真做好《预案》组织落实工作，促进生猪市场平稳运行。 相关链接 ...

Investment Rating - The overall investment rating for the agricultural sector is positive, with expectations of higher returns than the CSI 300 index by over 5% in the next six months [50]. Core Insights - Recent increases in agricultural product prices are expected to continue due to tariff countermeasures, presenting overall investment opportunities in the agricultural sector. Key investment themes include tariff countermeasures, capacity reduction, and low valuations [6][20]. - The livestock industry is experiencing stagnation in production capacity, with valuations at historical lows, indicating long-term investment potential despite potential price fluctuations [6][21]. - The poultry sector, particularly broilers, is anticipated to see price increases due to reduced imports from the U.S. following tariff impositions, alongside a steady recovery in consumer demand [9][22]. - The feed industry is showing resilience, with smaller adjustments compared to other sub-sectors, indicating a stable outlook [26]. Summary by Relevant Sections Livestock Industry - Swine prices are currently at 14.97 CNY/kg, reflecting a slight increase of 0.31 CNY from the previous week. The average weight of slaughtered pigs is 91.46 kg, with a processing plant utilization rate of 34.78% [14][20]. - The profitability for self-breeding farms is reported at 79 CNY per head, with a slight increase in the price of piglets to 40.9 CNY/kg [21]. - The broiler market is seeing a price increase, with the average price for broiler chicks at 3.1 CNY per chick and broiler meat at 3.75 CNY per jin [9][22]. Poultry Industry - The yellow chicken market is experiencing a price recovery, with prices reaching 10.69 CNY/kg, indicating a potential upward trend due to tightening supply [10][23]. - The animal health sector is showing signs of recovery, with increased demand for veterinary products as pig inventories rise [11]. Planting Industry - The seed industry is expected to benefit from improved policy environments, particularly for genetically modified corn and soybeans, which are projected to accelerate in commercialization [12][24]. - Recent increases in grain prices, with corn at 2290 CNY/ton and wheat at 2426 CNY/ton, are attributed to tariff countermeasures against U.S. imports, suggesting further investment opportunities in this sector [13][24]. Industry Data - The agricultural index has seen a decline of 2.14%, underperforming compared to the broader market indices, indicating a need for cautious investment strategies [26].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent trends in livestock and agricultural product prices, highlighting the increase in pig prices and fluctuations in other agricultural commodities [2][3]. Livestock Prices - As of April 18, the average price of external three yuan pigs in China was 14.97 yuan/kg, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 2.11%. The average price of 15 kg piglets was 37.11 yuan/kg, showing a week-on-week decrease of 0.24% [2]. - The average weight of market pigs was 128.57 kg, which decreased by 0.24 kg week-on-week. The national frozen product inventory rate was 14.88%, down by 0.06 percentage points [2]. - The recent cold wave caused disruptions in pig transportation, leading to increased prices in regions like Northeast China. The sentiment among farmers to hold onto pigs has strengthened, and there is a rise in secondary fattening and restocking activities, further supporting pig prices [2]. Agricultural Products - As of April 18, the average price of corn was 2268.04 yuan/ton, down by 0.02% week-on-week. The average price of soybean meal was 3395.14 yuan/ton, up by 3.79%, and the average price of wheat was 2427.50 yuan/ton, up by 0.23% [3]. - The corn prices are supported by the US-China tariff dispute and reduced US corn inventory. However, domestic demand remains weak due to cautious purchasing by deep processing and feed enterprises, leading to a stable acquisition price [3]. - The soybean meal prices are rising due to increased import costs and tight supply ahead of the holiday season [3]. - The price of natural rubber was 14625 yuan/ton, down by 1.35%. The market is currently in a weak balance of supply and demand, with high social inventory levels [3].

本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客 户，用作新媒体形势下研究信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿 订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便， 敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相关人员为光大 证券的客户。 报告摘要 本周猪价上涨 农产品方面，本周豆粕、小麦现货价格上涨，玉米现货价格下跌 点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 根据博亚和讯，4月18日全国外三元生猪均价为14.97元/kg，周环比+2.11%，15公斤仔猪均价37.11元/公 斤，周环比下跌0.24%。根据涌益咨询数据，本周商品猪出栏均重为128.57kg，周环比下降0.24kg，全国冻 品库容率为14.88%，环比下降0.06pct。上周寒潮导致北方暴雪，生猪调运受阻，屠宰企业收猪难度加大， 东北等地猪价强势上涨。养殖端惜售情绪增强，二次育肥补栏积极性提升，叠加屠宰企业冻品入库需求旺 盛，进一步支撑猪价。但从均重角度来看，涌益出栏均重连续两周下降，农业部宰后均重加速冲高，库存 拐点已逐渐清晰。 风险分析： 畜 ...

据巴西247新闻网4月17日报道，巴西农业部长卡洛斯.法瓦罗当日表示，在美国近400家屠宰场被取消对 华出口资格后，巴西打算成为中国牛肉需求的替代供应国。他强调，巴西无意在中国市场完全取代美 国，但认为中国市场仍有增长空间。他还强调，巴西是世界上农业扩张能力最强的国家之一。(环球网) ...

罗牛山（000735）公告，2024年第一季度营业收入8.94亿元，同比下降35.54%。净利润1.1亿元，同比 增长128.81%。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The report highlights a divergence in the data for breeding sows, with a 0.96% decrease in the breeding sow inventory at the end of Q1, marking the end of three consecutive quarters of increase. This indicates a potential shift in production capacity [1][2] - Despite the recent increase in pig prices, the report suggests that the downward trend in prices may be difficult to reverse in the future due to increased supply from rising breeding sow inventories and piglet numbers [1][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the official start of production capacity reduction, which could present investment opportunities in companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group [1][3] Summary by Sections Breeding Sow Inventory - As of the end of Q1, the national breeding sow inventory was reported at 40.39 million heads, a decrease of 390,000 heads or approximately 0.96% from the previous quarter, ending a trend of increases observed from Q2 to Q4 of the previous year [2] - Third-party monitoring data shows mixed results, with some reporting increases while others indicate a decrease, suggesting a more accurate reflection of actual production capacity trends [2] Pig Prices - Post-Spring Festival, pig prices have remained stable, fluctuating between 14.5 to 14.7 yuan per kilogram, with a brief increase to 15 yuan per kilogram around mid-April, which was stronger than market expectations [3] - The report attributes the stability in prices to factors such as low frozen product inventories and increased market demand, although it warns that the overall trend may still be downward due to rising supply [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that may benefit from the anticipated changes in production capacity, specifically highlighting Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group as key investment opportunities [1][3][8]