——26年信贷市场工作会议召开，监管体系持续完善 证券分析师 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2026年2月9日 1 证券研究报告 金融行业周报 重点聚焦 行业数据 • 2026年信贷市场工作会议召开，明确信贷资源重点流向 • 明确RWA监管框架，强化虚拟资产风险管理 • 国家金融监督管理总局发布《银行保险机构许可证管理办法》 • 本周银行、证券、保险、金融科技指数分别变动+1.70%、-0.65%、-0.71%、-0.57% • 银行：公开市场操作实现净回笼7560亿元，SHIBOR利率回落 • 证券：周度股基日均成交3.2万亿元 • 保险：十年期国债到期收益率环比上周下行0.10bps 核心观点 26年信贷市场工作会议召开，监管体系持续完善 1、2026年信贷市场工作会议召开，明确信贷资源重点流向。1月30日，中国人民银行召开2026年信贷市场工作会议，总结2025年工作，部署 落实结构性货币政策 ...

Group 1: Fund Overview - As of the end of 2025, there are 255 amortized cost bond funds with a total net asset value of approximately CNY 2.04 trillion, an increase of about CNY 612 billion from Q3 2025[4] - The total asset value of these funds is around CNY 2.78 trillion[4] - The average duration of bonds held by these funds is typically less than their closed period, which ranges from 3 to over 5 years[4] Group 2: Credit Bond Allocation - By the end of 2025, the allocation to credit bonds in amortized cost bond funds significantly increased, with non-financial credit bonds rising from 1% to 24%[17] - The market value of policy financial bonds decreased from 74% to 54% of the total allocation[17] - The core allocation among non-financial credit bonds is mid-term notes, which account for 14% of the total bond investment, with a market value of CNY 3,755.77 billion, an increase of CNY 3,675.85 billion from 2024[17] Group 3: Future Expectations - In Q1 2026, the cumulative opening scale of amortized cost bond funds is expected to reach approximately CNY 3,739.7 billion, with a peak in openings anticipated[10] - The ongoing opening of these funds is expected to provide continuous incremental demand for the credit bond market, potentially leading to differentiated performance among various credit bond types[4] - The strategy should focus on 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds, particularly those rated AA+ and above, to capitalize on the upcoming market opportunities[27]

证券ETF（512880）跟踪的是证券公司指数（399975），该指数主要覆盖A股市场上的证券公司股票， 反映该行业内上市公司的整体表现。成分股具有较高的成长性和周期性特征，行业配置集中于金融服务 领域，风格偏向价值与成长并重。 2月9日，沪指重返4100点，市场交投活跃催化证券行业，证券ETF（512880）涨超0.8%，近5日资金净 流入超12亿元。 平安证券指出，受益于权益市场回暖及资本市场活跃度提升，上市券商2025年业绩密集预喜，整体实现 较快增长，业绩增速较往年明显回暖。在"慢牛"市场环境及政策支持并购重组背景下，券商业绩修复趋 势有望延续。当前资本市场"慢牛"态势凸显，券商有望充分受益于资本市场高质量发展进程，预计证券 行业2026年业绩将在2025年高基数上保持稳健增长。政策鼓励头部券商通过并购重组等方式做优做强， 头部券商综合服务能力强、业务结构均衡，基本面更具韧性，在资本市场高质量发展政策导向下更为受 益，在增量跨境业务方面更具比较优势。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 09 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 3096 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五，A 股低开后震荡上行，尾盘有所回落，截至收盘，上证指数 收跌 0.25%，报 4065.58 点，深证成指跌 0.33%，创业板指跌 0.73%。 沪深两市 A 股成交额约 2.15 万亿元人民币，超 2500 股上涨。申万行 业方面，石油石化、基础化工行业领涨，食品饮料行业领跌；概念板 块方面，氟化工概念、染料概念涨幅居前。港股方面，香港恒生指数 收跌 1.21%，恒生科技指数跌 1.11%。美国三大股指全线收涨，道指 涨 2.47%，报 50115.67 点，创历史新高，标普 500 指数涨 1.97%，纳 指涨 2.18%。欧洲股市全线上涨，亚太股市多数下跌。 【重要新闻】 【李强主持召开国务院第十次全体会议，讨论政府工作报告稿和"十 五五"规划纲要草案稿】国务院总理李强 2 月 6 日主持召开国务院第 十次全体会议，讨论拟提请十四届全国人大四次会议审议的政府工作 报告稿和"十五五"规 ...

Core Viewpoint - The price of spot gold has surpassed the $5000 per ounce mark, reaching as high as $5040 per ounce, driven by an increase in China's gold reserves and positive market sentiment towards gold as a safe-haven asset [1][4]. Group 1: Gold Reserves and Market Trends - As of the end of January 2026, China's gold reserves stood at 74.19 million ounces, an increase of 40,000 ounces from December 2025 [1]. - The People's Bank of China has been increasing its gold reserves since November 2024, maintaining this trend for 15 consecutive months [1]. - The World Gold Council predicts that the current upward trend in gold prices will remain stable throughout the remainder of 2026 [4]. Group 2: Institutional Predictions and Investment Sentiment - Several financial institutions, including CITIC Securities, JPMorgan, Deutsche Bank, and Bank of America, have forecasted that gold prices could reach $6000 per ounce or higher in 2026 [4]. - Analysts from Galaxy Securities suggest that metal assets may continue to experience volatility, with a focus on the U.S. January CPI data to assess inflation persistence and adjust Federal Reserve policy expectations [5]. - Huatai Securities emphasizes that gold will remain an irreplaceable asset for value preservation, recommending a strategy of buying on dips due to ongoing dollar asset replacement logic and risk premiums [5]. Group 3: ETF Performance and Investment Opportunities - As of February 9, 2026, the Shanghai Gold ETF (518600) has risen by 2.81%, with a cumulative increase of 8.93% over the past month [5]. - The Shanghai Gold ETF has seen continuous net inflows, with a peak single-day net inflow of 177 million yuan, totaling 428 million yuan over three days [5]. - The Shanghai Gold ETF serves as a convenient investment tool for investors looking to hedge against rising gold jewelry prices [5].

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the industry, indicating a potential return exceeding 15% relative to the CSI 300 index [4][10]. Core Insights - The recent regulations from the People's Bank of China and the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) aim to prevent and manage risks associated with virtual currencies and Real World Asset (RWA) tokenization. The issuance of virtual currencies domestically remains illegal, while clear guidelines for RWA issuance abroad have been established [2][4]. - The policies are a continuation of previous measures from 2021, designed to mitigate speculative activities related to virtual currencies and RWA tokenization, thereby enhancing regulatory frameworks [4]. - The report emphasizes that while domestic virtual currency activities are strictly prohibited, there is a more accommodating regulatory stance towards RWA activities conducted abroad, provided they comply with specific regulatory requirements [4]. Summary by Sections Regulatory Developments - On February 6, a joint notice was released by the People's Bank of China and eight other departments to further prevent and manage risks related to virtual currencies and RWA [4]. - The notice categorizes virtual currencies and RWA activities into domestic and international dimensions, maintaining a strict prohibition on domestic virtual currencies while clarifying the rules for RWA issuance abroad [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that comprehensive and internationally oriented brokerage firms will benefit the most from these regulatory changes, specifically recommending Citic Securities and Huatai Securities as favorable investment options [4][5].

证券研究报告 金融 交投回落，战略加配优质金融 华泰研究 2026 年 2 月 08 日│中国内地 行业周报（第六周） 投资机会方面证券>保险>银行。市场波动加大，上周 A 股日均成交额 2.4 万亿元，周环比-21%；融资余额连续 6 个交易日下滑。央行等八部门发布 《关于进一步防范和处置虚拟货币等相关风险的通知》，禁止在境内开展现 实世界资产代币化活动，并严格监管境内主体赴境外开展相关业务活动。年 初至今保险板块中的弹性组合表现优于稳健组合，显示市场在交易保险股的 β属性。央行信贷市场工作会议提出要落实好结构性货币政策工具增量政 策，加强与财政政策协同。齐鲁银行披露业绩快报，营收增速较前三季度提 升，利润保持同比高增，资产质量持续优化。 子行业观点 1）证券：上周 A 股日均成交额 2.4 万亿元，周环比-21%；融资余额连续 6 个交易日下滑。前期涨幅较高的资产明显回落，市场风格切换，看好券商板 块高性价比机会。2）保险：在市场波动率加大的背景下，投资者可能需要 降低风险偏好，关注稳健标的。3）银行：央行信贷市场工作会议提出要落 实好结构性货币政策工具增量政策，加强与财政政策协同。齐鲁银行披露业 绩快报 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the insurance industry is experiencing a significant increase in profitability, with 57 life insurance companies reporting a net profit growth of over 150% year-on-year, marking it as the "strongest profit year" [1] - The outlook for the insurance sector indicates a continuation of deposit migration, with expectations of high growth in new policies through bank insurance channels, and a trend of market share concentration among leading companies [1] - The report highlights that the dividend insurance products will test companies' long-term investment capabilities, with stricter access requirements for these products through bank insurance channels, favoring larger companies [1] Group 2 - The report mentions that the reduction in the preset interest rate and the integration of reporting and operations will limit the competitive space for smaller companies in terms of pricing and costs [1] - It is noted that the profitability of bank insurance channels is improving, with larger companies continuing to expand their efforts in this area, leveraging advantages in resource synergy, service, and brand [1] - As of February 9, 2026, the CSI 800 Securities Insurance Index rose by 1.21%, with significant increases in stocks such as China Ping An (up 2.71%) and China Life (up 2.46%) [1] Group 3 - As of January 30, 2026, the top ten weighted stocks in the CSI 800 Securities Insurance Index account for 65% of the index, including major players like China Ping An and CITIC Securities [2]

Group 1: Global Asset Market Performance - The latest yields of 10 - year government bonds in major economies: US 4.208, UK 4.514, France 3.446, Germany 2.841, Italy 3.466, Spain 3.220, Switzerland 0.243, Greece 3.454, Japan 2.222, Brazil 6.169, China 1.806, South Korea 3.697, Australia 4.826, New Zealand 4.535 [3] - The latest yields of 2 - year government bonds in major economies: US 3.500, UK 3.617, Germany 2.082, Japan 1.275, Italy 2.231, China (1Y yield) 1.308, South Korea 3.009, Australia 4.254 [3] - The latest exchange rates of the US dollar against major emerging - economy currencies: Brazil 5.219, Russia (not provided), South Africa zar 16.031, Korean won 1463.650, Thai baht 31.647, Malaysian ringgit 3.948 [3] - The latest exchange rates related to the RMB: on - shore RMB 6.936, off - shore RMB 6.930, RMB central parity rate 6.959, RMB 12 - month NDF 6.797 [3] - The latest values of major economies' stock indices: S&P 500 6932.300, Dow Jones Industrial Index 50115.670, Nasdaq 23031.210, Mexican stock index 70809.570, UK stock index 10369.750, France CAC 8273.840, Germany DAX 24721.460, Spanish stock index 17943.300, Russian stock index (not provided), Nikkei 54253.680, Hang Seng Index 26559.950, Shanghai Composite Index 4065.583, Taiwan stock index 31782.920, South Korean stock index 5089.140, Indian stock index 7935.260, Thai stock index 1354.010, Malaysian stock index 1732.830, Australian stock index 8954.613, emerging - economy stock index 1506.380 [3] - The latest values of credit - bond indices: US investment - grade credit - bond index 3560.630, euro - zone investment - grade credit - bond index 267.879, emerging - economy investment - grade credit - bond index 290.940, US high - yield credit - bond index 2932.470, euro - zone high - yield credit - bond index 413.420, emerging - economy high - yield credit - bond index 1848.064 [3] Group 2: Stock Index Futures Trading Data - Index performance: A - share closing price 4065.58 (down 0.25%), CSI 300 closing price 4643.60 (down 0.57%), SSE 50 closing price 3037.86 (down 0.69%), ChiNext closing price 3236.46 (down 0.73%), CSI 500 closing price 8146.41 (unchanged) [4] - Valuation: PE(TTM) of CSI 300 14.04 (down 0.04), SSE 50 11.59 (down 0.05), CSI 500 36.90 (down 0.02), S&P 500 27.68 (up 0.53), Germany DAX 19.18 (up 0.18) [4] - Risk premium: 1/PE - 10 - year interest rate of S&P 500 - 0.60 (down 0.10), Germany DAX 2.37 (down 0.05) [4] - Fund flow: A - share latest value 202.42, main - board latest value 114.74, small - and - medium - enterprise board (not provided), ChiNext latest value 71.02, CSI 300 latest value - 34.69; A - share 5 - day average - 272.73, main - board 5 - day average - 179.44, small - and - medium - enterprise board (not provided), ChiNext 5 - day average - 60.47, CSI 300 5 - day average - 37.58 [4] - Transaction amount: Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets latest value 21457.19 (down 305.01), CSI 300 latest value 5057.60 (down 446.73), SSE 50 latest value 1336.06 (down 143.91), small - cap board latest value 4650.31 (up 273.12), ChiNext latest value 5607.18 (up 84.29) [5] - Main contract basis and spread: IF basis - 6.00 (spread - 0.13%), IH basis - 1.66 (spread - 0.05%), IC basis - 29.01 (spread - 0.36%) [5] Group 3: Treasury Bond Futures Trading Data - Treasury bond futures closing prices: T2303 108.42 (up 0.09%), TF2303 105.95 (up 0.03%), T2306 108.44 (up 0.10%), TF2306 106.02 (up 0.07%) [5] - Fund rates: R001 1.3605% (down 19.00 BP), R007 1.5288% (down 2.00 BP), SHIBOR - 3M 1.5800% (unchanged) [5]

Group 1 - The report highlights that the recent concentration of open-ended amortized cost bond funds may support the credit bond market, with a total net asset value of approximately 2.04 trillion yuan as of the end of 2025, reflecting an increase of about 61.2 billion yuan from the previous quarter [4][9][10] - The report indicates a significant shift in the asset allocation of these funds from primarily interest rate bonds to credit bonds due to limited options in a low-interest-rate environment, with a notable increase in credit bond allocation expected in 2024-2025 [4][9][17] - The anticipated peak of open-ended amortized cost bond funds in the first quarter of 2026 is projected to reach approximately 3739.7 billion yuan, with a focus on bonds with maturities of over five years in January and February, and shorter maturities in March [10][4] Group 2 - The report details that the market share of policy financial bonds decreased from 74% at the end of 2024 to 54% by the end of 2025, while the share of non-financial credit bonds surged from 1% to 24%, indicating a significant reallocation towards credit bonds [17][18] - The core asset in the credit bond allocation is medium-term notes, which accounted for 14.11% of the total bond investment market value, with a holding value of approximately 375.6 billion yuan, marking an increase of 3675.85 billion yuan compared to the previous year [17][18] - The report emphasizes that the open-ended amortized cost bond funds are likely to continue influencing the credit bond market, with a focus on 3-5 year maturity credit bonds, particularly those rated AA+ and above, as they seek to manage duration mismatch risks [27][4][9]