Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the A-share market is expected to experience a slow bull market in 2025, leading to significant improvements in the performance of brokerage firms [1] - Most brokerage firms' profit forecasts for 2025 indicate overall profit growth, with 6 out of 29 firms reporting an increase of over 100% and 19 firms showing an increase of over 50% [1] - The average daily trading volume of stock funds in the A-share market is projected to reach 2.08 trillion yuan in 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 70.36% [1] Group 2 - The number of IPO approvals is expected to increase by 109.43% year-on-year, with the amount raised growing by 208.01% [1] - The total net profit attributable to shareholders of listed brokerage firms that have released profit forecasts is expected to grow by approximately 60% year-on-year [1] - Leading brokerage firms are showing steady growth, while some small and medium-sized firms are demonstrating significant performance elasticity [1] Group 3 - The brokerage industry is anticipated to benefit from the long-term healthy development and increasing activity in the capital market [1] - Despite the positive outlook, there is a significant mismatch between valuations and fundamentals, with the overall price-to-book (PB) ratio of the brokerage industry at only 1.36 times [1] - The brokerage sector has experienced notable stagnation previously, making the current positioning highly cost-effective for investment [1]

- The report primarily focuses on tracking and analyzing the performance of broad-based indices in the A-share market, including metrics such as daily returns, moving averages, turnover rates, risk premiums, PE-TTM, dividend yields, and net asset ratios[1][2][4] - The turnover rate of the indices is calculated as the weighted average turnover rate of constituent stocks, with the formula: $ \text{Turnover Rate} = \frac{\Sigma(\text{Floating Shares of Constituent Stocks} \times \text{Turnover Rate of Constituent Stocks})}{\Sigma(\text{Floating Shares of Constituent Stocks})} $[19] - The risk premium is measured relative to the 10-year government bond yield, serving as a reference for risk-free rates. It evaluates the relative investment value and deviation of indices. The report highlights that indices like CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 exhibit higher volatility in risk premiums compared to others[28][29][32] - The PE-TTM (Price-to-Earnings Trailing Twelve Months) is used as a valuation metric to assess the investment value of indices. The report notes that indices such as CSI 500 (98.51%) and CSI 1000 (98.43%) have high 5-year historical percentiles, while indices like SSE 50 (81.9%) and ChiNext Index (60.83%) are relatively lower[40][43][44] - Dividend yield is analyzed as a measure of cash return, particularly relevant during market downturns. The report observes that indices like CSI 500 (7.36%) and CSI 2000 (3.88%) have relatively low 5-year historical percentiles, while ChiNext Index (56.36%) and CSI 300 (38.76%) are higher[50][53][55] - The net asset ratio (P/B ratio below 1) is used to evaluate market valuation attitudes. The report indicates that the current net asset ratios for indices are as follows: SSE 50 (24.0%), CSI 300 (16.67%), CSI 500 (10.6%), CSI 1000 (7.0%), CSI 2000 (2.45%), and CSI All Share (5.5%)[59]

Group 1 - The 51st House of Representatives election in Japan resulted in a decisive victory for the ruling coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Japan Innovation Party, with the LDP securing 316 seats, surpassing the two-thirds threshold for constitutional amendments, thereby solidifying its governance base [1][3] - The election outcome exceeded some market expectations, eliminating previous political uncertainties, and the ruling coalition now holds a total of 352 seats, representing a three-quarters absolute majority in the Diet, which significantly reduces the resistance to core policy advancement [3][4] - The Japanese yen depreciated to a two-week low, primarily due to market concerns regarding the direction of Japan's fiscal and monetary policies following the election results [3][4] Group 2 - The Nikkei 225 index surged significantly, reaching a historical high, with a daily increase exceeding 5%, driven by expectations of policy continuity and economic stimulus from the stable political environment [4][5] - External market influences, particularly a rebound in U.S. stock markets, contributed to the rise in Japanese stocks, alongside initiatives from the Tokyo Stock Exchange aimed at enhancing company valuations and increasing dividends and stock buybacks [5] - There is a notable divergence in market sentiment, with optimistic views suggesting that political stability and a moderate yen depreciation could benefit Japanese export companies and support economic recovery, while cautious perspectives warn of potential valuation bubbles and risks associated with excessive monetary easing [5][6] Group 3 - Key variables influencing future market trends include the effectiveness of the government's fiscal and monetary policies, debt control measures, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate adjustments, which will directly impact the yen and stock market [6] - The government's potential intervention in the currency market and the performance of U.S. stocks will also affect market sentiment and the trajectory of Japanese equities [6]

Group 1: Core Insights - 2025 marks the concluding year of the "14th Five-Year Plan," with China's financial reform and opening-up entering a deep institutional phase, focusing on systemic deepening and high-quality development [1][10][15] - The integration of finance and technology is emphasized, providing robust financial support for cultivating new productive forces [1][10] Group 2: Market Development - The capital market's two-way opening continues to deepen, with significant growth in trading volumes for the Shanghai-Hong Kong Stock Connect and Bond Connect, and Hong Kong's new stock financing returning to the top globally in 2025 [1][10][19] - Policies to encourage long-term capital inflows have been implemented, clarifying the proportion and assessment mechanisms for public offerings and insurance funds entering the market, optimizing the capital market ecosystem [1][10][22] Group 3: Industry Development - Foreign banks, securities, and insurance institutions are accelerating their presence in China, focusing on wealth management, green finance, and technology insurance, with foreign insurance companies' total assets growing by 12.1% year-on-year [2][62] - Domestic financial institutions are also actively expanding overseas, particularly in Belt and Road countries and emerging markets, with the asset management industry reaching 179.33 trillion yuan, setting historical highs for both public and private funds [2][73] Group 4: Regulatory Reforms - Regulatory reforms are centered around five major areas, with multiple departments issuing policies to clarify development goals, enhancing the inclusiveness of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board and optimizing the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (QFII) system [3][10][15] - The establishment of a modern financial system that matches economic strength is emphasized, with a focus on risk prevention and control [3][10] Group 5: Regional Opening - Key regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, and Hainan Free Trade Port are becoming core areas for financial opening, with various financial reform policies being implemented [2][10][12] Group 6: Financial Empowerment of Technological Innovation - The banking sector is increasing credit support for technological innovation, with the re-loan quota for innovation raised to 800 billion yuan, and the number of listed companies on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reaching 600 with a total market value exceeding 10 trillion yuan [3][10][12]

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of February 6, the margin trading balance in A-shares is 26,636.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 17.2 billion yuan from the previous trading day, accounting for 2.6% of the A-share circulating market value [1] Group 1: Margin Trading Data - The margin trading transaction amount on the same day was 191.166 billion yuan, down by 8.185 billion yuan from the previous trading day, representing 8.83% of the A-share transaction amount [1] - All 31 primary industries in Shenwan showed a net repayment status, with the non-ferrous metals industry having the highest net repayment amount of 2.052 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Individual Stock Performance - A total of 21 individual stocks had a net buying amount exceeding 100 million yuan, with Hunan Gold leading at a net buying amount of 404.146 million yuan [2] - Other notable stocks with significant net buying amounts include Hengtong Optic-Electric, Shenzhen South Circuit, Shuangliang Energy, Jiangfeng Electronics, Hongda Shares, Starlight Intelligent Drive, CITIC Securities, Zhongtung High-Tech, and Tianfu Communication [2]

Group 1 - The core logic of gold prices has shifted from short-term interest rate speculation to hedging against long-term dollar credit risks and the restructuring of the global monetary system [2] - The recent volatility in precious metals is expected to stabilize, with gold finding a bottom around 4400 USD for London gold and 1000 CNY for Shanghai gold [2] - The significant drop in precious metals prices is primarily driven by technical factors rather than fundamental deterioration, with strong macroeconomic support for gold prices remaining intact [3] Group 2 - The recent decline in tin prices is noted, with a week-on-week decrease of 15.81%, attributed to inventory depletion and ongoing supply issues from Indonesia and Myanmar [3] - The gold ETF from E Fund (159934) offers a convenient investment method for investors with securities accounts, allowing T+0 trading of gold [3]

——26年信贷市场工作会议召开，监管体系持续完善 证券分析师 袁喆奇S1060520080003（证券投资咨询） 李冰婷S1060520040002（证券投资咨询） 许 淼S1060525020001（证券投资咨询） 研究助理 李灵琇S1060124070021（一般证券业务） 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 2026年2月9日 1 证券研究报告 金融行业周报 重点聚焦 行业数据 • 2026年信贷市场工作会议召开，明确信贷资源重点流向 • 明确RWA监管框架，强化虚拟资产风险管理 • 国家金融监督管理总局发布《银行保险机构许可证管理办法》 • 本周银行、证券、保险、金融科技指数分别变动+1.70%、-0.65%、-0.71%、-0.57% • 银行：公开市场操作实现净回笼7560亿元，SHIBOR利率回落 • 证券：周度股基日均成交3.2万亿元 • 保险：十年期国债到期收益率环比上周下行0.10bps 核心观点 26年信贷市场工作会议召开，监管体系持续完善 1、2026年信贷市场工作会议召开，明确信贷资源重点流向。1月30日，中国人民银行召开2026年信贷市场工作会议，总结2025年工作，部署 落实结构性货币政策 ...

Group 1: Fund Overview - As of the end of 2025, there are 255 amortized cost bond funds with a total net asset value of approximately CNY 2.04 trillion, an increase of about CNY 612 billion from Q3 2025[4] - The total asset value of these funds is around CNY 2.78 trillion[4] - The average duration of bonds held by these funds is typically less than their closed period, which ranges from 3 to over 5 years[4] Group 2: Credit Bond Allocation - By the end of 2025, the allocation to credit bonds in amortized cost bond funds significantly increased, with non-financial credit bonds rising from 1% to 24%[17] - The market value of policy financial bonds decreased from 74% to 54% of the total allocation[17] - The core allocation among non-financial credit bonds is mid-term notes, which account for 14% of the total bond investment, with a market value of CNY 3,755.77 billion, an increase of CNY 3,675.85 billion from 2024[17] Group 3: Future Expectations - In Q1 2026, the cumulative opening scale of amortized cost bond funds is expected to reach approximately CNY 3,739.7 billion, with a peak in openings anticipated[10] - The ongoing opening of these funds is expected to provide continuous incremental demand for the credit bond market, potentially leading to differentiated performance among various credit bond types[4] - The strategy should focus on 3-5 year high-grade credit bonds, particularly those rated AA+ and above, to capitalize on the upcoming market opportunities[27]

证券ETF（512880）跟踪的是证券公司指数（399975），该指数主要覆盖A股市场上的证券公司股票， 反映该行业内上市公司的整体表现。成分股具有较高的成长性和周期性特征，行业配置集中于金融服务 领域，风格偏向价值与成长并重。 2月9日，沪指重返4100点，市场交投活跃催化证券行业，证券ETF（512880）涨超0.8%，近5日资金净 流入超12亿元。 平安证券指出，受益于权益市场回暖及资本市场活跃度提升，上市券商2025年业绩密集预喜，整体实现 较快增长，业绩增速较往年明显回暖。在"慢牛"市场环境及政策支持并购重组背景下，券商业绩修复趋 势有望延续。当前资本市场"慢牛"态势凸显，券商有望充分受益于资本市场高质量发展进程，预计证券 行业2026年业绩将在2025年高基数上保持稳健增长。政策鼓励头部券商通过并购重组等方式做优做强， 头部券商综合服务能力强、业务结构均衡，基本面更具韧性，在资本市场高质量发展政策导向下更为受 益，在增量跨境业务方面更具比较优势。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能 ...

市 场 研 究 [Table_Title] 万联晨会 [Table_MeetReportDate] 2026 年 02 月 09 日 星期一 [Table_Summary] 概览 3096 核心观点 【市场回顾】 上周五，A 股低开后震荡上行，尾盘有所回落，截至收盘，上证指数 收跌 0.25%，报 4065.58 点，深证成指跌 0.33%，创业板指跌 0.73%。 沪深两市 A 股成交额约 2.15 万亿元人民币，超 2500 股上涨。申万行 业方面，石油石化、基础化工行业领涨，食品饮料行业领跌；概念板 块方面，氟化工概念、染料概念涨幅居前。港股方面，香港恒生指数 收跌 1.21%，恒生科技指数跌 1.11%。美国三大股指全线收涨，道指 涨 2.47%，报 50115.67 点，创历史新高，标普 500 指数涨 1.97%，纳 指涨 2.18%。欧洲股市全线上涨，亚太股市多数下跌。 【重要新闻】 【李强主持召开国务院第十次全体会议，讨论政府工作报告稿和"十 五五"规划纲要草案稿】国务院总理李强 2 月 6 日主持召开国务院第 十次全体会议，讨论拟提请十四届全国人大四次会议审议的政府工作 报告稿和"十五五"规 ...