Core Viewpoint - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing outlines the economic work for 2026, emphasizing high-quality development to address uncertainties in the current economic landscape [1][8]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Policy - The conference signals a continuation of a more proactive fiscal policy and moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing the synergy of macroeconomic policies [1][2][3]. - Emphasis on "optimizing expenditure structure" and scientific management within fiscal policy aims to stabilize total demand while directing funds towards key areas such as technology innovation and public welfare [3][10]. - Monetary policy is set to remain "moderately loose," with flexibility in using various tools like reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate reductions to ensure adequate liquidity [3][10]. Group 2: Domestic Demand and Economic Structure - The conference prioritizes "expanding domestic demand" as a key task, reflecting a strategic decision to strengthen the internal economic drive amid rising external uncertainties [3][4][11]. - Key strategies for expanding domestic demand include stabilizing income, enhancing consumer confidence, optimizing supply, and promoting investment to create a virtuous cycle [4][11]. Group 3: Innovation and New Growth Drivers - Future growth drivers will focus on the integration of cutting-edge technology with industries, particularly in areas like artificial intelligence, new energy, and high-end manufacturing [5][11]. - The capital market is identified as a crucial element in nurturing new growth drivers, with a call for reforms to better support national innovation strategies [5][11]. Group 4: Reform and High-Quality Development - The conference highlights the need for reforms to eliminate "involutionary" competition and establish a unified national market, which is essential for enhancing economic vitality [6][12]. - Recommendations include setting high standards for market access and fair competition rules to guide enterprises in phasing out outdated capacities [12]. Group 5: International Cooperation and Investment Opportunities - China's opening up is shifting towards institutional openness, with future cooperation expected to focus on service trade, digital trade, and green low-carbon sectors [6][13]. - Investment opportunities are anticipated in domestic leading service enterprises, technology companies in digital trade, and firms in the renewable energy sector that can engage in international standard-setting [13].

央视网消息：12月15日，国务院新闻办公室举行新闻发布会，国家统计局相关负责人介绍，今年11月 份，工业生产稳定增长，装备制造业和高技术制造业增长较快。 国家统计局新闻发言人付凌晖介绍，1—11月份，全国规模以上工业增加值同比增长6.0%。11月份，分 三大门类看，采矿业增加值同比增长6.3%，制造业增长4.6%，电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增 长4.3%。装备制造业增加值同比增长7.7%，高技术制造业增加值增长8.4%，分别快于全部规模以上工 业增加值2.9和3.6个百分点。 国家统计局：11月全国服务业生产指数同比增4.2% 发布会上，国家统计局新闻发言人介绍，今年11月份，服务业平稳增长，现代服务业发展向好。 国家统计局：前11个月社会消费品零售总额同比增长4% 今年以来，提振消费专项行动深入实施，消费品以旧换新政策发力显效，促进了消费规模扩大，消费结 构升级、消费动能焕新，带动了消费潜能释放。 付凌晖介绍，1—11月份，社会消费品零售总额同比增长4%，增速不仅快于上年同期，也快于上年全 年。1—11月份，服务零售额同比增长5.4%，增速比上月加快0.1个百分点，连续3个月回升，而且快于 商品零售额 ...

日本大型制造业信心指数攀升至四年高点，进一步强化了市场对日本央行本周加息的预期。 日本央行周一发布的季度短观(Tankan)调查报告显示，12月大型制造业景气指数从9月的14升至15，与 经济学家的预期中值一致。大型非制造业景气指数维持在34，接近1990年代初以来的最高水平。该指数 为正值表明认为经营状况"良好"的企业数量多于"欠佳"的企业。 作为日本央行最受关注的数据之一，短观调查表明日本企业迄今未受美国关税政策的显著冲击——这正 是央行数月来持续强调的不确定性来源。此次调查结果增强了行长植田和男领导的政策委员会在周五加 息的理由，若实施将是今年1月以来的首次加息。 数据显示，石油和煤炭产品制造商的信心有所改善，为央行提供了观察企业如何应对9月中旬美国降关 税政策的早期窗口。约有70%的企业在此次关税调整前已提交了上一轮调查回复。 持续疲软的日元继续利好出口企业，但同时推高了服务业企业的运营成本——该行业吸纳了日本大部分 劳动力。根据周五数据，企业预计本财年日元兑美元汇率为147.06，较9月预测的145.68进一步走弱。 植田行长曾多次强调，美国关税政策的不确定性及薪资谈判的初步进展，将是当局考虑下一次 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Commerce, the People's Bank of China, and the Financial Regulatory Bureau have jointly proposed 11 policy measures to enhance business and financial collaboration, aiming to boost consumption significantly [1] Group 1: Financial Support for Consumption - Financial institutions are encouraged to focus on five key areas: upgrading commodity consumption, expanding service consumption, nurturing new types of consumption, innovating diverse consumption scenarios, and assisting consumption support [2] - The new policies emphasize increasing financial support for commodity and service consumption, with specific measures to enhance personal consumption loans and reduce penalties for early loan settlements in vehicle trade-ins [5][9] Group 2: Government and Enterprise Collaboration - The initiative promotes collaboration among government, financial institutions, and enterprises to conduct various consumption promotion activities and share information effectively [4] - Local governments are encouraged to establish communication mechanisms to enhance cooperation between fiscal funds, credit funds, and social capital, aiming for a comprehensive policy approach to support consumer welfare [4] Group 3: Innovation in Consumption - The policies advocate for the innovation of financial products and services that integrate into consumption scenarios, particularly in the service and elderly care sectors [7] - There is a focus on exploring financial support for emerging consumption models such as the sharing economy, green consumption, and AI-driven consumption [7]

央视网消息（焦点访谈）：刚刚闭幕的中央经济工作会议，对2026年经济工作进行了部署，明确了明年我国经济工作的方向和重点。良好的开局是成功的一 半。作为"十五五"规划的开局之年，明年的经济工作成色如何，意义重大。在我国经济发展中老问题、新挑战不少，外部环境变化影响加深的当下，明年的 经济工作具体要怎么干，又有哪些重点任务？今天继续聚焦解读。 做好经济工作，要突出重点，把握关键。这次中央经济工作会议为2026年经济工作定下了"稳中求进、提质增效"的总基调，从坚持内需主导、坚持创新驱 动、改革攻坚、对外开放、协调发展、"双碳"引领、民生为大和化解重点领域风险八个方面进行部署，确定了明年经济工作要抓好的八项重点任务。 中国社会科学院经济研究所研究员黄群慧："稳中求进、提质增效，提质增效核心体现的是我们的高质量发展，我们的各项重点任务围绕高质量发展全面展 开。" 清华大学中国发展规划研究院常务副院长董煜："今年'八个坚持'的任务，既是对'十五五'规划建议中经济发展任务的细化落实，也是针对年度工作特点所提 出来的，充分考虑了开局之年经济部署的需要。" 八项重点任务中，坚持内需主导，建设强大国内市场被放在了首位。强大国内市 ...

"十四五"即将圆满收官、"十五五"正待开启序幕之际，中央经济工作会议于12月10日至11日在 北京举行。会议明确了2026年经济工作中的八大重点任务，包括坚持内需主导，建设强大国内 市场；坚持创新驱动，加紧培育壮大新动能等。 近日，中部地区湖北、河南、湖南、江西、山西等地均召开相关会议，深入学习贯彻中央经济 工作会议精神。梳理来看， 激发内需潜力、推动科技创新和产业创新深度融合、促进城乡融 合和区域协调发展等方面成为重点，中部省份将力争结合因地制宜的谋划布局，形成更多新增 长点。 围绕贯彻落实中央经济工作会议精神，各地的部署中释放出哪些重要信号？ 持续激发内需潜力 记者丨 吴文汐 编辑丨李果 其中，培育服务消费新增长点将成为"十五五"时期的重点，这也与国家层面的导向相契合。 据东方金诚宏观首席分析师王青预计，明年财政促消费资金规模会从今年3000亿上调至5000 亿，支持范围有望从耐用消费品扩大到一般消费品及服务消费，其中服务消费将成为大力提振 消费的重点。 湖北在其"十五五"规划的建议中提出了，扩大服务消费，推动基础型生活服务品质提升，促进 大健康、新文旅、泛娱乐、智能化等改善型生活服务扩量提效；河南提出， ...

来源：中国基金报 【导读】三部门发布《关于加强商务和金融协同，更大力度提振消费的通知》 中国基金报记者 李智 强化商务和金融系统协作，助力提振和扩大消费。重磅文件来了！ 12月14日，商务部办公厅、中国人民银行办公厅、金融监管总局办公厅发布《关于加强商务和金融协 同，更大力度提振消费的通知》（以下简称《通知》）。 商务部财务司负责人解读《通知》指出，《通知》提出3方面11条政策措施： 一是深化商务和金融系统协作。推动地方有关部门加强沟通交流和分工协作，鼓励有条件的地方健全沟 通合作机制，强化财政资金、信贷资金与社会资本等合力，细化落实具体实施细则，共同打好政策"组 合拳"。 二是加大消费重点领域金融支持。鼓励金融机构围绕升级商品消费、扩大服务消费、培育新型消费、创 新多元化消费场景、助力消费帮扶五大重点领域，优化金融产品服务，推动供需两端强化对接，提高对 商品和服务消费的适配性，因地制宜推动新型消费发展，支持消费新业态新模式新场景建设，落实落细 各项金融支持举措。 三是扩大政金企对接合作。鼓励发挥"政金企"扩消费合力，开展多层次、多渠道、多样化的促消费活动 和信息共享，做好精准对接服务，用足用好相关政策红利， ...

Group 1 - The core issue is the significant increase in layoffs across various sectors, with a total of 1,170,821 employees laid off in the U.S. as of November, marking a 54% increase from the previous year, approaching the levels seen during the 2008-2009 financial crisis [1] - The primary reason for the layoffs is attributed to the impact of the DOGE department led by Elon Musk, which has resulted in 293,753 federal employees and contractors losing their jobs, alongside 20,976 in private and non-profit sectors, an eightfold increase compared to 2024 [4] - The macroeconomic environment, characterized by high costs and tariffs, is also a significant factor contributing to the layoffs [6] Group 2 - The low-interest rate environment has led to a debt hangover, with many companies facing the need to refinance at higher rates, resulting in doubled interest expenses and halved net profits for struggling "zombie companies" [7][8] - The retail sector is the hardest hit, with a notable decline in consumer confidence, as evidenced by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropping to 51, a more than 20% decrease from the previous year [15] - The service industry has also seen significant layoffs, with 69,089 jobs cut throughout the year, a 64% increase, affecting a wide range of roles from restaurant staff to logistics coordinators [17] Group 3 - The technology sector has been particularly affected, contributing 35% of the layoffs, with a historical high of 28% of layoffs being middle management positions, as AI tools reduce the need for these roles [29][30] - Companies are increasingly using layoffs as a management tool to meet Wall Street's new performance metrics, leading to a culture where reducing headcount is seen as a standard practice rather than a response to crises [31] - The trend of layoffs in the tech industry is expected to continue, with predictions of a peak in cost-cutting benefits in 2026, as operational costs are projected to decrease significantly [37] Group 4 - The layoffs are not only affecting lower-level positions but are also targeting high-salary roles, particularly in finance and technology, indicating a shift in the labor market dynamics [27][28] - The reduction in middle management is leading to immediate operational efficiencies, with companies reporting significant cost savings and improved performance metrics following layoffs [35] - However, the long-term implications of these layoffs may hinder innovation, as a significant portion of laid-off employees hold critical technical expertise, potentially extending product development cycles [41][51]

为深入贯彻党中央、国务院决策部署，强化商务和金融系统协作，引导金融机构聚焦消费重点领域加大 支持力度，助力提振和扩大消费，现将有关事项通知如下： 一、深化商务和金融系统协作 （一）完善协作机制。地方商务主管部门与金融管理部门加强沟通交流和分工协作，结合实际情况建立 健全协调工作机制，推动解决金融支持扩消费工作落实中遇到的困难和问题。鼓励有条件的地方与金融 机构健全沟通合作机制、推出专门工作方案等，引导金融机构依据市场化、法治化原则，丰富金融产品 和服务，加大对消费领域的金融供给。 （二）细化落实举措。地方商务主管部门结合扩消费工作，加强与金融管理部门政策衔接、工作对接和 信息共享，推动进一步调动金融资源，抓好相关政策措施落地生效。金融机构按照《关于金融支持提振 和扩大消费的指导意见》《关于发展消费金融助力提振消费的通知》等已出台政策要求，统筹内部资 源，主动靠前服务，制定具体实施细则，开展专项行动等，支持提振和扩大消费。 商务部办公厅 中国人民银行办公厅 金融监管总局办公厅 关于加强商务和金融协同 更大力度提振消费的通知 商办财函〔2025〕447号 各省、自治区、直辖市及计划单列市、新疆生产建设兵团商务主管 ...

Economic Situation - The economic situation is characterized by persistent challenges, but the overall tone is becoming more positive. The external environment is expected to stabilize marginally, while domestic supply-demand imbalances are highlighted as a significant issue [2][10]. - The meeting emphasizes the need to address "development and transformation" issues, indicating that many challenges can be resolved through concerted efforts [10]. Five Musts - The meeting outlines "Five Musts" to enhance economic potential, focusing on internal capacity building to respond to external challenges and the importance of policy support alongside reform innovation [2][18]. - Key strategies include ensuring effective market regulation while promoting investment in both physical and human capital [19]. 2025 Growth Target - The growth target for 2026 is set at approximately 5% for both nominal and real GDP, reflecting a pragmatic approach to align with long-term goals and current economic conditions [3][21]. - The transition of growth drivers is expected, with the "three new economies" projected to surpass the real estate sector historically [21]. Macroeconomic Policy - The macroeconomic policy framework is shifting from "promoting stability through growth" to "enhancing quality and efficiency," indicating a focus on structural optimization rather than mere expansion [4][26]. - Fiscal policy is expected to maintain a deficit rate around 4%, with a focus on improving the efficiency of spending rather than just increasing the scale [30][31]. - Monetary policy will remain moderately accommodative, with expectations for potential rate cuts and targeted support for key sectors [36][40]. Key Tasks - The emphasis on domestic demand is paramount, with strategies to boost consumption and stabilize investment growth projected at 2-3% for 2026 [5][46]. - Innovation-driven growth is prioritized, with plans to strengthen the integration of education, technology, and talent development [6][50]. - Reforms will focus on eliminating barriers to development, enhancing market dynamics, and improving the business environment [7][57]. Real Estate Market - The policy focus is shifting towards stabilizing the real estate market, moving from demand stimulation to a balanced supply-demand approach [8][63].