Production Sector - The coke oven operating rate increased to 72.85%, up by 0.44% from the previous week[8] - The blast furnace operating rate rose to 79.8%, an increase of 1.44%[8] - The PTA operating rate improved to 79.9%, reflecting a 3.11% increase[8] Consumption Sector - Weekly box office revenue dropped significantly to ¥37,200,000, a decrease of ¥45,400,000 from the previous week[8] - Daily average retail sales of passenger cars fell to 73,734.15 units, down by 2,636.4 units[8] - Daily average wholesale sales of passenger cars decreased to 93,252.05 units, a decline of 3,741.45 units[8] Real Estate and Infrastructure - The transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased to 186.28 million square meters, up by 21.57%[8] - The transaction area of second-hand houses in major cities rose to 251,216.94 square meters, an increase of 30,447.24 square meters[8] - The land premium rate in 100 major cities dropped to 0.21%, down by 2.17%[8] Trade and Transportation - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) decreased to 1,706.95, down by 3.40%[9] - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) increased to 2,056.00, reflecting a rise of 28.00[9] - The average daily passenger volume for subways in major cities showed a decline, with Beijing down by 131.71 thousand passengers[9] Price Inflation - The wholesale price index for agricultural products fell to 121.97, a decrease of 0.93%[9] - The average wholesale price of pork decreased to ¥15.98 per kilogram, down by ¥0.19[9] - The average wholesale price of vegetables dropped to ¥4.86 per kilogram, a decline of ¥0.08[9]

Core Insights - The report indicates a neutral valuation for the current contracts, with future price movements dependent on the European line's cargo pricing adjustments and fuel cost fluctuations [3] - The report highlights that the 10 contracts are influenced by fuel cost support, with significant geopolitical risks affecting market stability [3] - The report notes that the market is gradually entering a delivery logic phase, suggesting potential opportunities for basis recovery [3] Market Data Summary - The EC2604 contract closed at 1957.4, showing a 0.69% increase, while EC2605 saw a significant rise of 8.57% to 2378.8 [2] - The EC2606 contract increased by 11.17% to 2692.9, and EC2608 rose by 7.87% to 2564.0, indicating a positive trend in the market [2] - The SCFI index for the European line reported a 1.11% increase to 1636 USD/TEU, reflecting a strong upward movement compared to previous periods [4] Spot Market Conditions - In Week 13, the MSK price opened at 2250 USD, with PA reported between 2400-2500 USD, and some voyages at 2200 USD [4] - The average spot price is estimated to be around 1700-1800 points, with COSCO announcing an increase in April prices to 5100 USD [4] - In Week 14, the MSK price rose to 2650 USD, marking a 400 USD increase from the previous week [4] Geopolitical Context - Recent reports indicate tensions in the Middle East, with attacks on Iranian energy infrastructure and ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran [5] - The geopolitical situation remains a significant factor influencing market dynamics, particularly regarding fuel costs and contract valuations [3][5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran has reversed the previous pro - cyclical and re - inflation environment, and the commodity market may seek a direction between stagflation and recession in the future. The impact on oil prices, the macro - economy, and asset pricing logic will significantly exceed that of the same period in history [7][12]. - In the shipping industry, the geopolitical conflict has increased costs, and the recovery of shipping will take time. The price of shipping depends on the duration of the blockade [12][22]. - In the polyester bottle - chip industry, the supply is tightening, and the industry has emerged from the loss dilemma. In the short term, it can be operated with a long - bias, but there is a risk of decline if the geopolitical situation eases [22][30]. - In the asphalt industry, the supply is tight, the demand is weak, and the support for the price is strong. It is expected to maintain a high - level shock in the second quarter [31][35]. - In the soda ash industry, the market may first trade the speculative purchases of the downstream and mid - stream due to imported inflation, but there are opportunities for short - selling at high levels later [37][40]. - In the precious metals market, gold and silver are facing short - term headwinds due to tightened liquidity and concerns about interest - rate hikes [41][46]. - In the agricultural products market, the rise in oil prices affects agricultural products through cost and substitution paths. If oil prices remain high for a long time, the impact on agricultural product prices will become more obvious [50][57]. Summary by Directory Macro: From Risk Shock to Supply - Demand Reshaping - The Impact of Middle East Geopolitical Risks on Commodity Trends - Before the conflict, the market had a pro - cyclical expectation. After the US - Israel attack on Iran on February 28, the situation reversed. The conflict cut off the industrial chain cycle, causing a sharp rise in oil prices and a greater impact on the economy [7]. - Historically, in seven US - involved conflicts related to geopolitics or resource - rich countries, the price of crude oil rose in three cases and fell in four cases. Gold showed different trends in different conflicts, mainly related to the market's understanding of monetary policy during the war. The US dollar's trend is complex, and in this Iran conflict, it may not be very weak in the short and medium term. Copper will trade the recession expectation at a certain stage and then rebound [9][11]. - After the US - Israel attack on Iran, the pro - cyclical and re - inflation environment has changed. The commodity market may face stagflation or recession. The supply constraint - driven price increase may not be sustainable, and the risk of commodity price decline is accumulating [12]. Shipping: Geopolitical Conflict Raises Costs, Shipping Companies Impose Fuel Surcharges - The passage of the Hormuz Strait remains basically stagnant, with 1110 ships stranded, including 773 of the three major ship types. The passage situation is unlikely to improve significantly in the short term, and it will take time for shipping to recover even if the war eases [14][16]. - The Mandeb Strait and the Suez Canal have not been significantly affected for the time being, but if the Houthi rebels restart attacks in the Red Sea, these routes will be greatly affected [17]. - Fuel costs and insurance premiums have risen significantly. The price of marine low - sulfur fuel oil has more than doubled, and most shipping companies have suspended bookings for Middle - East routes [18]. - There are alternative solutions for Middle - East routes, but they have high costs and low efficiency. The follow - up actions of the Houthi rebels will affect shipping companies' capacity deployment [19]. - The spot freight rate of European routes is oscillating in the off - season, and the freight rate of Middle - East routes is in high - level game. The short - term focus is on the cargo - receiving situation of shipping companies in April, and the medium - and long - term freight rate depends on the blockade time [20][22]. Polyester Bottle Chips: Tightening Supply and Peak Season, Bottle Chips Out of the Loss Dilemma - The driving logic of the market has shifted from the cost side to the supply side. The reduction of PX load will affect the supply of downstream PTA [22]. - In the price - difference structure, naphtha is the strongest, and the price difference between PX and naphtha is weak. The profit - compression space of PX and PTA is large [23]. - Due to refinery load reduction and the maintenance season, the supply of PX is expected to decrease, and the supply of PTA is also under pressure. The load of ethylene glycol is affected by raw materials, and the import is expected to decrease [24][26]. - The load of polyester is seasonally rising, and the inventory of polyester products is differentiated. Bottle chips perform better than short - fibers, and the price difference strategy between them can be concerned [29]. - In the short term, the market can be operated with a long - bias, but there is a risk of decline if the geopolitical situation eases. It is not recommended to chase positive spreads in the month - spread, and the month - spread can be narrowed at high prices [30]. Asphalt: Tight Supply, Weak Demand, and Continued Concerns about Raw Materials - The current market is driven by supply tightening and domestic refinery production cuts. In mid - March, as the Middle - East situation intensified and the cost increased, some refineries reduced or stopped production, driving the price up [31]. - The supply of asphalt in the southern region has decreased significantly, and the demand recovery is still weak. The demand for road - modified asphalt is at the lowest level in the same period, and the demand for waterproofing membranes has only recovered to the medium - low level [32]. - The core driving factors include the increase in raw material prices due to the Middle - East conflict, the problem of raw material inventory from the Venezuela event, and the supply concern of other heavy - quality raw materials [33][34]. - In the future, at least in the second quarter, the asphalt price is expected to maintain a high - level shock due to the peak demand season and raw - material inventory consumption [35]. Soda Ash: Continued Geopolitical Disturbance, Differentiated Trends of Weak - Fundamentals Varieties - In the first three weeks of the conflict, the market sentiment was intense in the first week, with energy products leading the rise. In the second week, the sentiment was differentiated, and the rise and fall narrowed. In the third week, glass and soda ash entered the top ten decliners [36]. - In the fourth week, the mutual attacks on energy facilities between the US and Iran strengthened the market's pricing of the energy crisis. Coal prices rose, driving soda ash prices up [37]. - The cost of soda ash is affected by coal prices, but the impact is limited. The supply of soda ash is at a historical high, and the demand is strong in the short term but may face negative feedback later [38][39]. - In the short term, soda ash prices may be strong, but there are opportunities for short - selling at high levels. The strategy of going long on soda ash and short on glass can be considered, and selling call options can also be considered [40]. Gold and Silver: Geopolitical Factors Drag on Liquidity Tightening, Gold and Silver Face Short - Term Headwinds - Since March 2, the prices of gold and silver have weakened due to tightened liquidity and concerns about interest - rate hikes, and they have broken through key moving averages technically [41][42]. - Historically, the price of gold is highly sensitive to the US real yield. In the short term, the negative factors of gold are dominant, and it is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the short term and wait for positive signals in the medium and long term [45][46]. - The price of silver generally follows that of gold. The relative valuation adjustment of silver has been completed, but attention should be paid to the impact of changes in ETF demand on the supply - demand pattern. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias in the short term [47][49]. Agricultural Products: Geopolitical Conflict Raises Costs, Analysis of the Impact on Agricultural Products - Crude oil affects agricultural products through cost and substitution paths. The cost of fertilizers and transportation has increased significantly since the conflict [50][51]. - The correlation between US agricultural products and crude oil is higher than that in China. Different agricultural products have different correlations with crude oil, and the impact paths are also different [52]. - Different crops and countries have different sensitivities to fertilizer price increases. Corn is the most sensitive, and Brazil is highly sensitive to fertilizer price increases [56]. - The rise in oil prices affects agricultural products through multiple paths. If oil prices remain high for a long time, the impact on agricultural product prices will become more obvious [57].

Market Overview - A-shares market showed a rebound in early trading, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising over 1% at one point, while the ChiNext Index's decline narrowed. The market saw a clear differentiation between large and small-cap stocks, with mid-cap stocks performing strongly, and the micro-cap index increasing by over 2%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.32 trillion yuan, a decrease of 143.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with over 4,500 stocks rising across the market [1]. Sector Performance - The green energy sector continued to strengthen, with Huadian Liaoning Energy achieving a seven-day consecutive rise, Shaoneng Co. gaining four out of five days, and Liaoning Energy recording two consecutive increases. Disen Co. hit the daily limit with a 20% increase. The military industry sector also performed well, with Changcheng Military Industry, Hunan Tianyan, and Construction Industry all hitting the daily limit. The shipping sector saw fluctuations but ultimately rose, with China Merchants Energy hitting the daily limit. The computing power chip concept rebounded, with Muxi Co. increasing by over 15% and Moer Thread rising by over 9% [3]. Declines - In contrast, the storage chip sector experienced a downturn, with Purang Co. dropping by over 9%. By the end of the trading session, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.95%, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.26%, while the ChiNext Index fell by 0.79% [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of the container shipping index (European Line) is 0, indicating a neutral stance [17]. 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday fluctuations of the EC market are significantly influenced by geopolitical sentiments. In terms of fundamentals, the short - term valuation center of the 2604 contract depends on the quotes of other shipping companies in early April. In a neutral scenario, the market freight rate center in early April will rise to the range of $2700 - 2800/FEU, equivalent to an SCFIS index of approximately 1950 - 2050 points; in a pessimistic scenario, the rate hike fails, and the freight rate center drops back to $2500 - 2600/FEU in the second half of March, equivalent to an SCFIS index of about 1800 - 1900 points. The 2604 contract has long - allocation value around 1800 points and below, and short - term long - buying opportunities should be noted. For far - month contracts, a certain premium or discount is given according to seasonality, and overall, one should mainly adopt a wait - and - see approach [13][15]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals Tracking - **Futures Data**: The EC2604 contract closed at 1957.4 points, with a daily increase of 3.00%; the EC2606 contract closed at 2692.9 points, with a daily increase of 14.40%; the EC2608 contract closed at 2564.0 points, with a daily increase of 9.74%; the EC2610 contract closed at 1648.0 points, with a daily increase of 6.72% [1]. - **Freight Index**: On March 23, 2026, the SCFIS European route index was 1693.26 points, with a weekly increase of 8.8%; the SCFIS US - West route index was 1024.11 points, with a weekly decrease of 7.7%. The SCFI European route index had a bi - weekly increase of 1.1%, and the SCFI US - West route index had a bi - weekly decrease of 8.7% [1]. - **Spot Freight Rates**: For European - bound shipments from Shanghai, different carriers' $/40'GP rates range from 2035 to 3360, and $/20'GP rates range from 1285 to 2230 [1]. - **Exchange Rates**: The US dollar index was 99.12, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 6.91 [1]. 3.2 Supply Side - In the past week, the average weekly capacity in April was revised down from 32.5 to 31.1 million TEU/week, with the capacity reduction mainly from the OA Alliance. The capacity in April decreased by 0.9% year - on - year and increased by 5.8% month - on - month. The capacity in May was revised down from 33.5 to 33.1 million TEU/week, and there were 4 pending voyages not included in the statistics. The capacity in May increased by 10.4% year - on - year and 7.8% month - on - month, and the static effective capacity in May is currently at a historical high [13]. 3.3 Demand Side - In the fourth week of March, the overall booking progress in the market was better than that in the third week. Maersk raised the price by $400 to $2700/FEU in the first week of April, and as of Thursday this week, the booking progress was average. The PA Alliance showed signs of improved loading at the end of the month. The market as a whole showed the characteristics of deteriorated loading for high - price ships and improved loading for low - price ships, while the OA Alliance continued to perform steadily. In the medium - to - long - term, if oil prices soar and remain high, potential downside risks may stem from macro - level negative feedback, which could then be transmitted to international trade [14]. 3.4 Freight Rates - **Maersk**: The opening rate in the 13th week was 2200/230 (40GP/40HQ). It was raised by $400 to 2600/2700 (40GP/40HQ) in the 14th week. As of Thursday this week, the SPOT booking volume was only 1100FFE, far from the target of 3900FFE [14]. - **OA Alliance**: The central rate in the 12th and 13th weeks was around $2900/FEU. Among them, Evergreen, COSCO, and OOCL were in the range of $2700 - 2800/FEU, and CMA's offline rate was 3168 and online rate was 3293 dollars/FEU [14]. - **PA Alliance**: In the 12th week, the FAK was reported at $2400/FEU, and the actual offline transactions were mostly at $2200/FEU per ship. In the 13th week, YML and HMM's offline rates remained at $2200/FEU, ONE's FAK was reported at $2520/FEU, and different SPOT rates could be applied for different container volumes [15]. - **MSC**: From April 1st to April 5th, the rate basically remained at $2840/FEU [15].

Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The EC2604 contract is gradually entering the delivery logic, with a neutral current valuation. The future mainly lies in the contradiction between the cargo - collection and price - adjustment situation of the European line itself and the change in fuel costs. The EC2610 contract follows the cost - support logic, and fuel costs continuously affect its valuation. Geopolitical risks are significant, and TACO news may make it difficult for the short - term market to continue rising. A significant decline requires a clearer signal of geopolitical relaxation. Attention should be paid to the opportunity to repair the basis for the EC2604 contract [3] Summary by Relevant Categories Futures Contract Information - **Contract Price and Fluctuation**: The closing prices of EC2604, EC2605, EC2606, etc. are 1957.4, 2378.8, 2692.9 respectively, with increases of 0.69%, 8.57%, 11.17% respectively. The trading volume and open interest of each contract also vary, such as the trading volume of EC2604 being 36453 and the open interest being 17696 with a change of - 74 [2] - **Month - to - Month Spread**: The spreads of EC2604 - 2606, EC2604 - 2605, EC2606 - 2610 are - 735.5, - 421.4, 1044.9 respectively, with day - on - day changes of - 257.2, - 174.3, 192.4 respectively and week - on - week changes of - 287.0, - 236.4, 171.9 respectively [2] Spot Situation - **Week 13**: MSK's price is flat at $2250, PA quotes range from $2400 - 2500, and some voyages are at $2200 (large - volume orders at $2000). The average spot price converted to the futures contract is about 1700 - 1800 points. COSCO announces a price increase for the European line in April to $5100, and CMA issues a price - increase letter for April with a target of $3500 [4] - **Week 14**: MSK quotes at $2650 (a $400 increase from the previous week). YML releases the freight rate for the first half of April at $2750. The PA Alliance's FE4 maiden voyage (April 11) quotes at $2200 [4] Spot Index - **SCFI (European Line)**: Updated on March 20, 2026, the price is $1636 per TEU, with a 1.11% increase from the previous period and an 11.43% increase in the previous period [2] News - On March 24, Iranian media reported that the US and Israel attacked two Iranian energy infrastructure facilities. The Trump administration is secretly evaluating the possibility of taking Iranian Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf as a potential partner and even a future Iranian leader. Iranian - US relations are complex, with information being transmitted through Egypt and Turkey to ease tensions, but the US has not accepted Iran's two core conditions. The issue of closing the Strait of Hormuz and laying mines is still in Iran's potential action options [5]

Key Points Summary of the Conference Call Company Overview - The company is a major player in the global container shipping industry, ranking 20th as of December 31, 2025, operating 46 routes covering over 50 ports across 22 countries and regions, with the Asia-Pacific region contributing approximately 91% of its cargo volume [3][4]. Financial Performance - In 2025, the company reported revenues of $1.28 billion, a decrease of 4.2% year-on-year, with net profit attributable to shareholders at $329 million, down 10.1% [2][4]. - The average container shipping rate fell by 6.6% to $718 per TEU, impacting overall revenue [4]. - The gross profit decreased by 19.5% to $254 million, with a gross margin contraction of 3.8 percentage points to 19.7% [4]. - Operating cash flow remained strong at $502 million, marking 12 consecutive years of positive cash flow [4]. Fleet and Capacity Management - The company plans to increase its owned vessel ratio to 89% by 2025, with a total capacity expected to reach 240,000 TEU by 2029, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.6% [2][3]. - The fleet capacity decreased by 6.9% to 134,000 TEU due to the return of some chartered vessels [3]. Cost Management - The company achieved a 36% reduction in chartering costs by increasing the proportion of owned containers to 40% [2][4]. - Fuel costs decreased by 13.7% year-on-year due to falling oil prices, amounting to $164 million [4]. Strategic Adjustments - The company optimized its route structure by reducing capacity from North Asia to Southeast Asia and increasing capacity to the Middle East and the Indian subcontinent, which together contributed 18% of cargo volume in 2025 [2][3]. - A new service, MEX, was launched to enter the South American market, while services to the U.S. were terminated due to regulatory changes [3]. Dividend and Financial Policy - The company maintains a dividend payout ratio of 30%-50%, proposing a final dividend of $0.1 per share, totaling $167 million, which aligns with its commitment to distribute at least $70 million in dividends for 2024 and 2025 [5]. Market Outlook - The company anticipates continued demand in the Asia-Pacific region, driven by trade fragmentation and economic growth in ASEAN, China, the Middle East, and India [6]. - The market is expected to remain volatile in 2026 due to geopolitical tensions, but the company believes that its strong balance sheet and strategic route adjustments will mitigate risks [6][7]. Risk Management - In response to the Middle East situation, the company has implemented surcharges of $2,000 to $3,000 to cover additional costs, with minimal impact on overall profitability [7][8]. - The company has proactively hedged fuel costs to ensure supply for upcoming months [9]. Competitive Advantages - The company has a diversified customer base and a strong operational network, allowing it to maintain stability in cargo volumes and service quality [17][18]. - Its fleet is designed for efficiency in port operations, enhancing its competitive position in the market [15][18]. Future Plans - The company plans to receive three new 14,000 TEU vessels by 2027, exploring both self-operated routes and potential leasing opportunities [10]. - It aims to expand its presence in non-Asian markets while maintaining a strong focus on its core Asian routes [11]. Cost Trends - Container handling fees are expected to rise, with the company planning to pass on these costs to customers [13]. - The overall cost structure is projected to remain stable, with TEU costs expected to stay around $620 [13]. Conclusion - The company is well-positioned to navigate the challenges of the current geopolitical landscape while capitalizing on growth opportunities in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond, supported by a robust financial foundation and strategic operational adjustments [6][15].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The shipping market is in the process of switching from the off - season to the peak season. In March, the price increase was realized in advance, and April will still focus on stable loading. The probability of the emergency fuel surcharge of leading shipping companies being implemented in China this week is low, and shipping companies may still issue price increase letters or peak - season surcharges in April to support prices. The far - month contracts maintain a high premium, mainly due to the short - term emotional impact brought by the Houthi issue. The market is waiting for the realization of optimistic expectations, such as the impact of Middle - East transshipment, supply - chain disruptions, and fuel prices on supply and demand. In the short term, with a high premium, the market may show wide - range fluctuations, and there is a risk of increased volatility. It is recommended to participate with caution. The outlook is for a volatile market, with changes in the Strait of Hormuz and escort arrangements being the main risks [1][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Freight Rates and Contract Volume - Price - Last weekend, the freight rates on the European route showed a slight increase. Trump gave Iran a 48 - hour ultimatum. In the morning, some freight rates on the Evergreen line dropped to $2435/FEU. In the afternoon, the 04 contract quickly rose to 2190 points, and contracts such as 05 hit the daily limit during the session, then the overall market continued to decline. At the close, the 04 contract closed at 1957.4 points, up 3%, with a decrease of 74 in open interest; the closing price growth rates of contracts 05, 06, and 07 exceeded 10%, and the closing price increases of contracts 09 and later exceeded 6%. After the market, SCFIS increased by 8.8% to 1693.26 points, corresponding to the shipping prices from March 16 - 22 [2]. - According to Geek Rate data at 17:00, in the spot market, for GEMINI, MSK's online freight rate in the first week of April is $2630/FEU; HPL - SPOT's price at the end of March remained at $2535/FEU, with a low - price of $2035 taken off the line, and the single - voyage quote at the beginning of April remained at $2735/FEU, and other voyages were in the range of $3035 - 3535/FEU. For OCEAN, EMC's CES quote at the beginning of April is $2650/FEU, about $480 lower than at the end of March ($3130 - 3230/FEU), and the same as last weekend; other April voyage quotes are $3360/FEU. OOCL maintained $2737 - 2846/FEU at the end of March and opened at $3187 - 3284/FEU in April. For PA&MSC, ONE's quote remained at $2755/FEU at the end of March and $3761/FEU in April; MSC's online showed one CONDOR quote at the beginning of April of $2852/FEU, basically the same as at the end of March ($2840/FEU) [2]. Futures Contract Data | Contract | Closing Price | Settlement Price | Increase/Decrease Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Long - Position | Short - Position | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | EC2604 | 1957.4 | 2007.2 | 5.6199 | 36453 | 17696 | 10817 | 11998 | | EC2605 | 2378.8 | 2354.1 | 10.8481 | 2459 | 1814 | | | | EC2606 | 2692.9 | 2597.8 | 10.3568 | 17737 | 14312 | | | | EC2607 | 2783 | 2755.6 | 11.1422 | 618 | 992 | | | | EC2608 | 2564 | 2557.7 | 9.4718 | 1998 | 2945 | | | | EC2609 | 1835.4 | 1824.7 | 6.3137 | 142 | 502 | | | | EC2610 | 1815 | 1651.5 | 6.9417 | 4102 | 7517 | | | | EC2612 | 1815 | 1812.1 | 6.4376 | 125 | 438 | | | [9] Spot Freight Rate Data | | SCFI | SCFIS | | --- | --- | --- | | Composite Index (points) | 1707 | | | Northern Europe Route ($/TEU) | 1636 | 1693.26 (+8.8%) | | Mediterranean Route ($/TEU) | 2784 | | | West Coast of the United States Route ($/FEU) | 2054 | 1024.11 (-7.7%) | | East Coast of the United States Route ($/FEU) | 2922 | | [10] Geopolitical and Strait Passage Information - Geopolitically, the US - led naval alliance warned that the new threat from the Houthi to shipping in the Strait of Mandeb may pose an "increased risk" to maritime traffic. On March 22, the Yemeni Houthi armed forces stated that they would join the Middle - East war on Iran's side. The Houthi also claimed to have a hypersonic ballistic missile called "Palestine - 2". Houthi leader Abdul Malik al - Houthi said his forces were ready to act. Iran has provided the Houthi armed forces with anti - ship ballistic missiles, including the Asif missile with a range of 400 kilometers, the "Tufan" ground - to - ground ballistic missile with a range of up to 1800 kilometers, the Kuz series of cruise missiles with a range of more than 1300 kilometers, and the Samad series of attack drones with a range of up to 2500 kilometers [3]. - In terms of strait passage, on March 20, the freight rate from the Middle - East to China was $12.01/barrel, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.5%, and the freight rate from West Africa to China rebounded by 4.1% to $7.56/barrel. According to ShipVoy, the daily passage volume of the Strait of Hormuz was updated to 2 outbound voyages today [6].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market risk appetite has rebounded due to Trump's statement on the productive talks between the US and Iran, leading to a weakening of the US dollar index and a short - term repair of the US stock market. However, the Iranian attitude remains tough, and the Middle East situation is still highly uncertain [1][2][13][18]. - The A - share market has deeply corrected due to the escalation of the US - Iran war. Although there are rumors of progress in the US - Iran negotiations, the sustainability of the market rebound remains to be seen [3][19]. - The prices of various commodities are affected by the US - Iran situation and their own fundamentals. For example, steel prices are driven by cost but lack fundamental support; coal prices are expected to rise in the short - term; copper prices are expected to maintain a wide - range shock [4][5][25][27][46]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump stated that the US - Iran talks were "productive", causing the global market risk appetite to rebound and the US dollar index to weaken. The US - Iran war may gradually come to an end. It is expected that the US dollar will be weak in the short - term [1][13][14]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The Fed's Goolsbee believes that there may be a need to raise interest rates due to the inflation shock caused by the Middle East situation. Trump released a signal of easing, and the stock market rebounded in the short - term. However, the Iranian attitude is still tough, and the US stock market is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait for a clear right - hand signal [15][18]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - A - shares have deeply corrected, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below 3800 points. The US - Iran war has hit the global stock market, and although there are rumors of progress in the negotiations, the sustainability of the A - share rebound remains to be seen. It is recommended to maintain a low - position to avoid risks [3][19][20]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 80 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1293 billion yuan. The war situation is complex, and it is recommended to observe more and act less [21][22]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - South Korea made an anti - dumping final ruling on Chinese and Japanese carbon and alloy steel hot - rolled coils. Steel prices are oscillating strongly due to the rise in energy and coking coal prices, but the fundamental driving force is insufficient. It is expected that steel prices will oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the increase is limited [4][24][25][26]. 3.2.2 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - The price of steam coal in the northern port market remained stable on March 23. The coal price has entered a short - term upward channel due to the impact of the Middle East energy issue. It is expected that the coal price will continue to rise in early April, but the sustainability needs to be vigilant [27]. 3.2.3 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The Middle East conflict may cause iron ore miners to face billions of dollars in additional fuel costs. The iron ore price continues to oscillate, and the short - term trend is not clear. As the conflict continues, both supply and demand may be damaged [28][29]. 3.2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The soybean meal inventory of oil mills has increased slightly. The rise in shipping costs due to the Middle East conflict has increased the cost of imported soybeans in China, but there is no further upward driving force for soybean meal. It is necessary to pay attention to various uncertainties in the domestic and foreign markets [30]. 3.2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - In February 2026, the import volume of corn starch increased significantly. The supply of corn is expected to increase as the temperature rises, and the downstream demand has rigid support. The short - term market has intensified long - short games, and the medium - to - long - term upward amplitude is restricted by demand and policies [31][32]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - Platinum and palladium prices fell sharply, mainly due to the liquidity crisis. There is support at the spot end, and it is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium in the medium - term, and reduce positions and take profits for long platinum - palladium ratio positions in the short - term [33][34]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The social inventory of lead ingots decreased slightly. The lead price has support from the cost of recycled lead, but the terminal consumption is facing the off - season. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [35][36]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The inventory of zinc ingots in seven places decreased. The zinc price has support from fundamentals, and it is recommended to wait for the price to stabilize and the volatility to decline, and then pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium - term [37][38]. 3.2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The supply of lithium ore is tight, and the demand for new energy vehicles is expected to improve. The lithium carbonate market is expected to be in a tight balance in March - April. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips after the correction [40][41][42]. 3.2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - The Vatican launched an initiative to encourage investors to withdraw from the mining industry. The copper price is supported by the easing of the Middle East war, but there is a risk of the situation reversing. It is expected that the copper price will maintain a wide - range shock, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to the internal - external positive arbitrage [43][46]. 3.2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The supply and demand of tin are in a weak pattern, and the price is expected to operate weakly due to the continuous suppression of the Middle East geopolitical conflict [47][48][49]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Trump postponed the military strike against Iran for five days, causing the oil price to drop significantly. The Middle East situation is still highly uncertain, and the oil price will maintain high volatility [52][53]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - The price of LPG is expected to fluctuate widely due to the high sensitivity of the market to the geopolitical situation [54][55]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - Trump's statement of forming agreement points with Iran has reduced the war premium of the fuel oil market. The short - term market uncertainty is still large [55][56][57]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - The urea price may be affected by coal prices in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by policies. It is recommended that market participants purchase based on rigid demand and reduce speculative operations [58][59]. 3.2.16 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - The inventory of pure benzene in the East China main port decreased. The prices of pure benzene and styrene are expected to rise, and it is recommended to be long on aromatics [60][61][62]. 3.2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong is rising. The supply and demand of caustic soda are improving marginally, and it may continue to be strong in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by the weak basis and high inventory [63][64][65]. 3.2.18 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The price of PVC powder has risen, but the high - price resistance is obvious. The supply of PVC is expected to decrease, and the cost is rising. The PVC futures price is expected to be strong [66][67]. 3.2.19 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - The last foreign - controlled terminal has withdrawn from the Chinese mainland market. The container freight rate is affected by the geopolitical situation and oil prices. It is recommended to treat the market with a strong - oscillation idea in the short - term and pay attention to the changes in the US - Iran situation and oil prices [68][69].

Core Insights - The report highlights the investment opportunities in the pharmaceutical sector, particularly focusing on Tianjin Tianshi Co., Ltd. after the acquisition by China Resources Group, which is expected to drive long-term growth [5][6][9] - The report emphasizes the structural bull market trend in the A-share market, with a focus on the rising opportunities in the new energy sector due to elevated oil prices [11][12][13] - The transportation sector is experiencing shifts due to geopolitical tensions, with shipping routes being adjusted and new business models emerging in low-altitude economy and autonomous driving [21][22] Pharmaceutical Sector - Tianjin Tianshi reported a revenue of 8.236 billion yuan in 2025, a decrease of 3.08% year-on-year, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.105 billion yuan, an increase of 15.63% [5][6] - The company is focusing on innovation and has a robust pipeline with 31 projects under development, including 11 in cardiovascular and metabolic diseases [8] - The management has implemented a strategic plan aiming for a doubling of industrial revenue to 15 billion yuan by 2030, leveraging resources from China Resources [6][9] Energy Sector - The report notes that Brent crude oil prices have remained above $100, influenced by geopolitical conflicts, which underscores the importance of energy transition [13] - The new energy sector, including solar and wind power, is expected to perform well as it is less affected by geopolitical tensions compared to fossil fuels [13] - Investment opportunities in the new energy sector are highlighted, with various segments such as batteries and storage systems showing promising growth [13] Transportation Sector - The report discusses the impact of the geopolitical situation on shipping routes, with VLCCs rerouting to avoid disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz [21][22] - Air cargo capacity remains tight due to Middle Eastern tensions, leading to adjustments in flight schedules and routes by carriers [21][22] - The emergence of new business models in the low-altitude economy, including partnerships between tech companies and ride-sharing platforms, is noted as a significant trend [21][22]