Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The weak US employment data has increased the expectation of a Fed rate cut, and the global risk appetite continues to decline. The slowdown of China's economic data in October and the Fed's hawkish signals have dampened market risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the market focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies, economic growth, and Fed monetary policy expectations. [3][4] - Different asset classes are expected to be in a short - term volatile state, and investors are advised to be cautious. [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro Finance - **Overseas**: US employment data is weak, with a decrease in private - sector employment and an increase in continued unemployment claims, which raises the expectation of a Fed rate cut and cools global risk appetite. [3] - **Domestic**: China's economic data in October slowed down year - on - year and fell short of expectations, and the central bank restarted treasury bond trading to release liquidity. However, the Fed's hawkish signals dampened risk appetite. The short - term macro upward drive has weakened, and the stock index will be volatile in the short term. [3][4] - **Asset Recommendations**: Stocks are in short - term volatility, and short - term cautious waiting is recommended; treasury bonds are in short - term volatility, and cautious long - positions are recommended; commodity sectors such as black, non - ferrous, energy - chemical, and precious metals are all in short - term volatility, and cautious waiting is recommended. [3] Stock Index - Affected by sectors such as coal, batteries, and industrial metals, the domestic stock market continued to fall. The slowdown of economic data and Fed's signals dampened risk appetite. The short - term upward drive has weakened, and the stock index will be volatile in the short term. Short - term cautious waiting is recommended. [4] Precious Metals - The precious metals market rose slightly on Tuesday night. The weak US employment data led the market to assess the possibility of a Fed rate cut in December. The short - term trend is volatile, and the medium - to - long - term upward pattern remains unchanged. Short - term cautious waiting and medium - to - long - term buying on dips are recommended. [4] Black Metals - **Steel**: The steel market rebounded slightly on Tuesday, with low trading volume. Real - world demand is weak, and supply is restricted by losses. The market has no new contradictions, and the price has limited room to fall or rise. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended. [5][6] - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore rebounded slightly on Tuesday. Iron - water production increased slightly, and demand is still strong in the short term, but the bottom of iron - water production is uncertain. The supply and demand situation has slightly improved. A range - bound trading strategy is recommended. [6] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Tuesday, but the futures prices fell. The demand for ferroalloys is weak. The operating rates and daily outputs of silicon manganese and silicon iron enterprises decreased. The futures prices are expected to remain range - bound. [7] - **Soda Ash**: The soda ash main contract was weak on Tuesday. Supply decreased marginally due to some device overhauls, but the overall supply pressure remains. Demand for heavy soda is stable, and that for light soda has slightly recovered. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term and bearish in the medium - to - long term. [8] - **Glass**: The glass main contract oscillated on Tuesday. Supply remained stable, and there is a cold - repair expectation at the end of the year. Demand improved marginally, but downstream demand is still weak, and inventory is high. It is expected to be range - bound in the short term. [8] Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: Copper prices have fallen recently. The high US copper inventory and the slow de - stocking in China limit the price increase. The suspension of an Indonesian copper mine will support the futures price, but there is a risk of a downward break in the short term. [9][10] - **Aluminum**: The Shanghai aluminum price fell sharply on Tuesday. The Fed rate - cut expectation declined, and the inventory increase indicates poor de - stocking. If the expectation is repaired later, the aluminum price may decline significantly. [10] - **Tin**: The supply of tin is still tight, but the demand is weak. The social inventory has increased. The tin price is expected to remain range - bound at a high level in the medium - to - short term. [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The lithium carbonate main contract rose on Tuesday. After a previous sharp increase, the weighted contract significantly reduced positions. Investors are advised to wait and see due to large price fluctuations. [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon main contract fell on Tuesday. After the end of the wet season, production in the southwest decreased, and the supply - demand is weak. It is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the cash - flow cost support of large enterprises. [12] - **Polycrystalline Silicon**: The polycrystalline silicon main contract fell on Tuesday. There is a game between strong policy expectations and weak reality. It is expected to be range - bound at a high level. [13] Energy and Chemicals - **Methanol**: The methanol market in the inland region mainly fell. The overall inventory is rising, and supply is expected to increase in the short term while demand is weak. There is a risk of shutdown in high - cost areas, but the gas - restriction devices have not been implemented. It may fall in the short term but is supported by the expectation of gas - restriction and cost. [14] - **PP**: The PP market showed a weak oscillation. Demand has improved, but the supply growth rate is too fast, leading to inventory increases. With the approaching of the traditional off - season, the demand is expected to weaken, and the price is expected to continue to decline. [14] - **LLDPE**: The polyethylene market price is weak. The supply pressure is increasing, and the demand support will gradually weaken. With weak cost support, the price is expected to continue to be under pressure. [15] - **Urea**: The urea market is firm with a slight increase. Supply pressure persists, and demand is differentiated. The price is under downward pressure in the short term but may stabilize after oscillation in the medium - to - long term. [15] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The price of US soybeans remained stable at a high level supported by the news of China's potential purchase. The soybean harvest rate in the US is lower than last year and the five - year average, and the sowing in Argentina is delayed due to floods. [16] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The supply and demand of soybean and rapeseed meal in domestic oil mills are loose, and the basis is weak. With the weakening of US soybeans, the meal price may continue to correct, but it may stabilize later due to the slowdown of soybean procurement. [17] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The supply of soybean oil exceeds demand, but the cost support from US soybeans makes the price stable and slightly strong. Rapeseed oil is in a state of continuous de - stocking, and the price is supported by the Canadian bio - fuel incentive plan. [17] - **Palm Oil**: Malaysia lowered the reference price of crude palm oil in December. Due to the policies in Indonesia, the palm oil price is expected to rise in the next few months. The domestic palm oil inventory is increasing, and the price will maintain a wide - range oscillation in the short term. [17] - **Corn**: The current inventories of corn in northern ports, feed enterprises, and deep - processing enterprises are low. The futures may correct the basis, and the price is expected to be slightly strong. [18] - **Pigs**: The early - morning pig price was stable and slightly strong. The market supply is still in excess, but the farmers' reluctance to sell and the expected reduction in pig enterprises' sales support the price to be weakly stable. [18]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in soybean futures prices is attributed to China's renewed purchasing activity, which had previously stalled, providing hope to American farmers [1][3]. Group 1: Soybean Market Dynamics - On November 17, soybean futures prices on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange rose by 3.2%, reaching a 17-month high, following reports of China's intention to purchase soybeans from the U.S. [1] - AgResource reported that Chinese importers have bought between 7 to 10 shipments of U.S. soybeans, with some scheduled for shipment in January and others in June or later [1]. - The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) indicated that only 232,000 tons of the total 1.2 million tons of soybeans sold were destined for China, a decrease from the previous week [3]. Group 2: Trade Agreements and Expectations - The Trump administration previously announced that China agreed to purchase at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans this season, which is crucial for American farmers facing inflation and high input costs [3]. - USDA data revisions revealed that 100,000 tons of soybean orders were canceled, contributing to market anxiety [3]. - Trump's team expressed optimism about the ongoing negotiations, with Agriculture Secretary Rollins stating that China has started buying soybeans and that progress is being made [4]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The rise in soybean prices may negatively impact U.S. competitiveness in the global market, as higher prices could push buyers towards Brazilian soybeans [4]. - AgResource noted that the increase in U.S. soybean futures prices could shift non-Chinese market business to Brazil, indicating a potential loss of market share for U.S. soybeans [4]. - The article highlighted that China has gained leverage in the soybean trade, being able to pause and resume purchases based on the state of U.S.-China relations [4]. Group 4: Historical Context and Trends - Historically, U.S. soybeans represented a significant portion of China's imports, with 57% of U.S. soybean exports going to China in 2017, valued at over $12 billion [5]. - Following the trade tensions, U.S. soybean exports to China plummeted to $3 billion, with China increasingly turning to Brazil and Argentina for its soybean needs [5]. - In the first eight months of this year, China imported only 218 million bushels of U.S. soybeans, a 78% decrease year-on-year, while Brazil captured approximately 93% of China's soybean import market [5].

Group 1 - The core point of the article is that the Trump administration's recent decision to relax tariffs on certain agricultural products is a response to domestic pressures, particularly inflation and electoral concerns, rather than a well-thought-out policy strategy [1][8][20] - The inflation rate in the U.S. remains high, with the Consumer Price Index rising 3.4% year-on-year in September, causing significant financial strain on low-income households [3][6] - Agricultural states are facing severe challenges, with exports of soybeans and pork to Asia dropping by 12% due to tariffs, leading to excess inventory and price drops [5][10] Group 2 - The tariff relaxation primarily targets imported fruits and vegetables, while maintaining high tariffs on staple crops like wheat and corn, indicating a selective approach to tariff adjustments [10][12] - The U.S. domestic fruit and vegetable industry is struggling due to adverse weather conditions and rising labor costs, necessitating the tariff adjustments to prevent further price increases for consumers [12][14] - The policy reflects a broader diplomatic strategy, with potential tariff relaxations for allied countries while maintaining pressure on strategic competitors, showcasing a differentiated tariff approach [14][16] Group 3 - The U.S. policy shift is likely to have global repercussions, benefiting soybean producers in Brazil and Argentina, who are already improving logistics and reducing export taxes to capture market share [18][20] - The long-term implications for the U.S. agricultural sector could be detrimental, as shifting supply chains may lead to permanent loss of market share [20][22] - For China, the impact of the U.S. tariff changes is minimal, as it has diversified its agricultural imports significantly, reducing reliance on U.S. products [20][22]

软商品日报 2025/11/18 咨询业务资格：沪证监许可【2012】1515号 研报作者：许亮 Z0002220 审核：唐韵 Z0002422 【免责声明 】 本报告基于本公司认为可靠的、已公开的信息编制，但本公司对该等信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告所载的意见、结论及预测仅反映报告发布时的观点、结论和 建议。在不同时期，本公司可能会发出与本报告所载意见、评估及预测不一致的研究报告。本公司不保证本报告所含信息保持在最新状态。本公司对本报告所含信息可在不发出通知的情形 下做出修改， 交易者（您）应当自行关注相应的更新或修改。本公司力求报告内容客观、公正，但本报告所载的观点、结论和建议仅供参考，交易者（您）并不能依靠本报告以取代行使 独立判断。对交易者（您）依据或者使用本报告所造成的一切后果，本公司及作者均不承担任何法律责任。本报告版权仅为本公司所有。未经本公司书面许可，任何机构或个人不得以翻 版、复制、发表、引用或再次分发他人等任何形式侵犯本公司版权。如征得本公司同意进行引用、刊发的，需在允许的范围内使用，并注明出处为"东亚期货"，且不得对本报告进行任何有 悖原意的引用、删节和修改。本公司保留追究相关 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The trading focus of the soybean meal futures lies in whether the 53 bushels per acre yield of US soybeans on the external market will continue to decline, and whether the 12 million tons of Chinese purchases claimed by the US can be reflected in the annual balance sheet. If the inventory remains around 300 million bushels, the annual price of US soybeans will fluctuate around the cost line, and the domestic soybean meal will lack a unilateral driving force. The near - term contracts will strengthen due to seasonal de - stocking, while the far - term contracts will be weak due to Brazilian supply pressure, continuing the positive spread logic [1]. - The rapeseed meal futures will maintain a state of weak supply and demand in the fourth quarter. There are additional negotiation expectations between China and Canada, and with the arrival of Australian rapeseed after November, the subsequent demand growth is limited, and supply is expected to recover. Therefore, the inventory of rapeseed meal at coastal and oil mills remains high, and it is considered weak. Attention can be paid to the registration of new warehouse receipts after the concentrated cancellation of warehouse receipts in November [2]. Summary According to the Table of Contents Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - **Soybean Meal**: The external market focuses on supply - side yield adjustments and demand - side Chinese purchases. The domestic market has a near - strong and far - weak pattern. Near - term contracts are affected by seasonal de - stocking, and far - term contracts are pressured by Brazilian supply [1]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: It will have a weak supply - demand situation in Q4. There are negotiation expectations between China and Canada, and Australian rapeseed arrivals will limit demand growth and increase supply expectations [2]. - **Proximal Trading Logic**: Currently, the supply of imported soybeans at ports and oil mills is high, and the oil mill crushing volume has slightly increased. The demand is limited, and the warehouse receipt pressure of soybean and rapeseed meal is about to decline, making the near - term narrative dominant [6]. - **Distal Trading Expectations**: The cost of far - month soybeans is high, and import profits are falling, indicating limited far - month purchases. Sino - US trade relations are easing, and the supply gap is expected to narrow. Rapeseed meal supply may improve, and demand is expected to weaken. Brazilian and Argentine soybean planting is progressing well, and future harvest pressure will affect domestic meal prices [17]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgement**: The market will be in a range - bound state. The M2601 contract will fluctuate between 2800 - 3200 [25]. - **Strategy Suggestions**: Unilateral long positions can be reduced; consider a covered call strategy with options; hold the previously sold call options for rapeseed meal 2601; for non - holders, avoid excessive short - chasing after a Monday low - opening, and consider high - selling and low - buying or positive spread strategies [25]. - **Basis, Spread and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: For basis strategies, use accumulated option purchases to reduce basis risk. For spread strategies, reduce positions in M3 - 5 and M1 - 3 spreads. For hedging arbitrage strategies, narrow the spread of soybean and rapeseed meal 2601 at high levels [26]. 1.3 Industry Customer Operation Suggestions - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean meal is 2800 - 3300, and that of rapeseed meal is 2250 - 2750 [28]. - **Hedging Strategies**: Traders with high protein inventory can short soybean meal futures; feed mills with low inventory can buy soybean meal futures; oil mills worried about excessive imports can short soybean meal futures [28]. 1.4 Basic Data Overview - **Futures Prices**: The closing prices, daily changes, and percentage changes of soybean meal, rapeseed meal, CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB are provided [29]. - **Spreads**: Information on the spreads between different contracts of soybean and rapeseed meal, as well as the basis and spot spreads, is presented [30]. - **Import Costs and Pressing Profits**: The import costs and pressing profits of US, Brazilian soybeans, and Canadian rapeseed are given [31]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Concerns 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The USDA's November report shows a lower US soybean yield and production than previous forecasts. Argentina's soybean planting progress is behind schedule, and the NOPA's October report shows an increase in soybean meal production [33][34]. - **Negative Information**: Brazil's soybean planting progress is fast, and its October exports are higher than last year. The USDA has not resumed the weekly crop growth report due to the government shutdown [35]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Downstream customers continue to purchase on a need - to - use basis [35]. 2.2 Next Week's Concerns - Monday: USDA export inspection report and domestic weekly inventory data; Tuesday: Brazil's Secex weekly report; Saturday: CFTC agricultural product position report [42] Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The soybean meal futures followed the external market, first falling, then rising, and then falling again. The rapeseed meal futures continued to decline due to previous China - Canada negotiations. Key profitable seats in soybean and rapeseed meal reduced short positions and increased long positions, and the market sentiment for soybean meal turned bullish. The 1 - 5 spreads of both soybean and rapeseed meal weakened. The basis of both soybean and rapeseed meal declined, and the spot spread between soybean and rapeseed meal narrowed [39][40][44]. - **External Market**: After the USDA report, the prices of both domestic and external markets declined. Then, with the news of Sino - US soybean purchases, US soybeans rebounded, and the domestic market followed. The net long positions of CBOT soybeans returned above the zero - axis [56][60]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Production Area Profit Tracking - The pressing profits in US soybean production areas are weakening due to rising costs, while the monthly pressing volume remains high. The pressing profits in Brazilian and Argentine production areas are also weakening, and the pressing profits of Canadian rapeseed are rising due to falling prices [62]. 4.2 Import - Export Pressing Profit Tracking - After Argentina opened the export window in September, the domestic soybean meal price declined, but the decline was limited due to the lack of negative feedback from domestic purchases. Recently, although the market has rebounded, the pressing profits have not improved. The near - term domestic supply pressure and profit support limit the downward space, while the far - term market may decline after the collapse of Brazilian premium prices. The import of rapeseed has shown pressing profits, but subsequent purchases are expected to be cautious due to margin factors [67]. Chapter 5: Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 5.1 International Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - For the September new - crop balance sheet, the US soybean production is expected to be between 4.2 - 4.3 billion bushels. The demand for crushing will continue to grow, while the export will be weak. If Sino - US trade resumes, exports may recover. The ending inventory is expected to be moderately tight. The October balance sheet was not released due to the government shutdown, and attention should be paid to the November balance sheet [71]. - Globally, in the 2025/26 soybean balance sheet, the beginning inventory and production are expected to decline, the crushing volume will decrease, the export volume will slightly increase, and the ending inventory will decline [75]. 5.2 Domestic Supply - Side and Deduction - The import of soybeans will gradually decrease in the fourth quarter, and the supply will enter a seasonal de - stocking phase. The import of rapeseed will remain low [77]. 5.3 Domestic Demand - Side and Deduction - The domestic soybean crushing volume will remain high, and the consumption of soybean meal will have limited growth [79]. 5.4 Domestic Inventory - Side and Deduction - The domestic soybean inventory will decline in the fourth quarter and is expected to stabilize and rebound in the first quarter of next year. The soybean meal inventory will also decline and remain at around 600,000 tons in the first quarter of next year [81].

天眼查App显示，近日，文山市寻千农药业有限公司成立，法定代表人为董相菊，注册资本5万人民 币，经营范围为一般项目：中草药种植；中草药收购；地产中草药（不含中药饮片）购销；初级农产品 收购；技术服务、技术开发、技术咨询、技术交流、技术转让、技术推广；个人互联网直播服务；信息 技术咨询服务；货物进出口；食用农产品初加工；食用农产品批发；农产品智能物流装备销售；食品销 售（仅销售预包装食品）；办公用品销售；家具销售；电子产品销售；建筑材料销售；建筑装饰材料销 售；日用百货销售；互联网销售（除销售需要许可的商品）；农副产品销售；茶具销售；保健食品（预 包装）销售；工艺美术品及礼仪用品销售（象牙及其制品除外）；新鲜蔬菜零售；食用农产品零售；厨 具卫具及日用杂品零售；新鲜水果零售；化妆品零售；厨具卫具及日用杂品批发。（除依法须经批准的 项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营活动）许可项目：烟草制品零售；酒类经营。（依法须经批准的 项目，经相关部门批准后方可开展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the proportion of short positions in commodities has rebounded, mainly due to the decline in the factor strength of the precious metals and non - ferrous sectors, while the black sector has recovered. The black sector is relatively strong in cross - section, while the non - ferrous and agricultural sectors are relatively weak [3]. - The comprehensive signals of methanol, float glass, iron ore, and lead have different trends this week, with methanol and float glass showing long signals, iron ore showing a short signal, and lead maintaining a short signal [5][8][11]. 3. Summary by Related Content Commodity Market Overview - In the precious metals sector, the time - series momentum of gold has declined, and the trading volume of silver has decreased significantly, with an expanding divergence at both ends of the cross - section. In the non - ferrous sector, the position factor has decreased marginally, the cross - section momentum divergence has narrowed, and lead is relatively weak in the cross - section. In the black sector, the positions of iron ore and rebar have decreased slightly, but the short - term momentum time - series has recovered, and rebar is relatively strong in the cross - section. In the energy sector, the short - term momentum factor has declined, and the chemical sector is at the relatively strong end of the cross - section. In the agricultural products sector, the cross - section divergence of oil and meal has narrowed, and the overall long - term momentum has stabilized slightly [3]. Strategy Net Value and Fundamental Factors - **Methanol**: Last week, the supply factor increased by 0.57%, the demand factor decreased by 0.40%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.58%, and the synthetic factor increased by 0.45%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned long. In terms of fundamental factors, the supply side has turned neutral, the demand side has weakened from a long signal to neutral, the inventory side is long, and the spread side is slightly bearish [5]. - **Float Glass**: Last week, the profit factor increased by 0.05%, the spread factor weakened by 0.36%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.26%. This week, the comprehensive signal is long. The supply side is neutral, the demand side is slightly bearish, the inventory side is long, and the spread side has weakened significantly from a long signal to neutral [8]. - **Iron Ore**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.2%, the inventory factor strengthened by 0.3%, and the comprehensive factor increased by 0.06%. This week, the comprehensive signal has turned short. The supply side remains bearish, the demand side has turned bearish, the inventory side has turned neutral, and the spread side remains neutral [11]. - **Lead**: Last week, the supply factor decreased by 0.18%, the demand factor weakened by 0.17%, the inventory factor decreased by 0.16%, the spread factor weakened by 0.07%, and the synthetic factor decreased by 0.14%. This week, the comprehensive signal remains short. The supply side has turned neutral, the inventory side remains bearish, and the spread side remains bearish [11].

Group 1: Core Outlook and Asset Allocation - The report anticipates a strong performance of risk assets by 2026, driven by improvements in micro fundamentals, accelerated AI capital expenditures, and a favorable policy environment, with global market trends influenced by the U.S. [1] - Recommendations include prioritizing equity investments, followed by credit and government bonds, with a preference for U.S. assets; overweighting equities (+5%), U.S. high-yield bonds (+3%), and agency mortgage-backed securities (+3%), while underweighting commodities (-4%), cash (-3%), and U.S. investment-grade corporate bonds (-4%) [1] Group 2: Global Stock Market - The U.S. stock market is expected to outperform other global markets, benefiting from positive operating leverage, pro-cyclical policies, and AI-driven efficiency improvements, with a target for the S&P 500 index at 7,800 points by the end of 2026 (14% increase from current levels) and a projected EPS compound annual growth rate of 14% from 2025 to 2027 [1] - The Japanese stock market is also viewed positively, supported by re-inflation and improvements in return on equity (ROE), with a target for the TOPIX index at 3,600 points (+7%); however, Europe and emerging markets (excluding India and Brazil) lack similar positive catalysts [1] Group 3: Interest Rates and Exchange Rates - G10 interest rates are expected to exhibit a "lower first, higher later" pattern, with the Federal Reserve anticipated to cut rates by 50 basis points in the first half of 2026, leading to a mid-term drop in the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to 3.75%, before rising to 4.05% by year-end [2] - The U.S. dollar index (DXY) is projected to decline to 94 in the first half of the year, followed by a rebound to 99 in the second half, with risk currencies like the Australian dollar and Swedish krona initially leading, while the euro and pound may struggle due to central bank rate cuts [2] Group 4: Credit and Securitized Products - Corporate credit is expected to benefit from increased capital expenditures, a revival in merger and acquisition activity, and accommodative policies, with high-yield bonds (HY) outperforming investment-grade bonds (IG) in both the U.S. and European markets [2] - There is a preference for 5-10 year maturities to capture rolling yields, with the financial sector expected to perform better than the cyclical sector; securitized products are anticipated to benefit from regulatory easing in the U.S. and Europe, with recommendations to increase holdings in short-term products and BBB- rated channel loan securities [2] Group 5: Commodities - The report indicates that metals are expected to outperform energy, with Brent crude oil projected to stabilize around $60 per barrel; gold is highlighted as a preferred asset, supported by macro factors and strong physical demand, with a target price of $4,500 per ounce [3] - Among industrial metals, copper and aluminum are favored due to significant supply challenges, while in agricultural products, soybean prices are expected to reach a target of $11.7 per bushel over the next 12-18 months, surpassing corn prices at $4.7 per bushel [3]

Group 1: Soybean Meal - CBOT soybean prices reached a one-year high due to strong demand outlook, with inspections totaling 1.176 million tons, meeting market expectations, and no inspections for China [1] - NOPA reported October soybean crush at 22.7647 million bushels, up 15% month-on-month and 14% year-on-year, marking a historical high [1] - Domestic soybean meal prices are expected to rise again, but the increase is anticipated to be lower than international markets due to a decrease in Brazilian premiums [1] Group 2: Oils - BMD palm oil prices increased due to production risks in Indonesia and a weak Malaysian ringgit, with exports from Malaysia down 10%-15.5% for the first half of November [2] - SPPOMA forecasts a 4.3% increase in palm oil production for the same period, while market pressure from inventory remains [2] - Domestic palm oil prices rose, while canola oil prices fell, with soybean oil showing little change; overall market volatility is decreasing [2] Group 3: Live Pigs - Live pig futures contracts are adjusting, with spot prices in Jiangsu province averaging 11.75 CNY/kg, indicating a downward trend in the market [3] - The supply-demand imbalance persists, leading to a bearish outlook for prices, with expectations of continued supply surplus [3] - Technical indicators suggest caution in trading strategies, with a recommendation to exit short positions and wait for stabilization [3] Group 4: Eggs - Egg futures experienced a slight decline, with the main contract closing at 3229 CNY/500kg, while spot prices remained stable across various regions [4] - The market is relatively balanced in terms of supply and demand, with trade activity primarily driven by immediate needs [4] - Future supply is expected to decrease gradually, leading to a wide fluctuation in egg futures prices, with attention on potential rebound opportunities [4] Group 5: Corn - Corn futures showed a near-term adjustment, with funds shifting towards longer-term contracts, indicating a near strong and far weak market dynamic [5] - Prices in the Northeast region remain strong, with increased enthusiasm among traders for grain collection [5] - The market is experiencing upward pressure on prices due to rising costs, with cautious bullish sentiment maintained for the long term [5]

Core Viewpoint - The global supply surplus and weak competitiveness in the U.S. continue to suppress the rebound potential of wheat prices, with Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) soft red winter wheat futures closing down 0.14% as of the week ending November 14, 2025 [1] Market Information - According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture, the U.S. wheat export inspection volume for the week ending November 13, 2025, was 246,533 tons, down from a revised 291,443 tons the previous week [1] - For the crop year to date, the cumulative U.S. wheat export inspection volume is 12,363,115 tons, compared to 10,363,288 tons during the same period last year [1] - The U.S. wheat crop year began on June 1 [1] International Supply Data - Reports indicate that Russia's total wheat, barley, and corn exports for November are estimated at 5 million tons, a decrease from 5.4 million tons in October [1] - Specifically, wheat exports fell from 5.1 million tons in October to 4.6 million tons, while barley remained at 2 million tons, and corn doubled from 1 million tons to 2 million tons [1] Future Procurement Goals - The Egyptian supply ministry aims to procure 5 million tons of local wheat in the next quarter [1] Global Inventory Projections - The U.S. Department of Agriculture projected that the global wheat ending stocks for the 2025-26 season will be 271.43 million tons, exceeding analysts' expectations of 266.13 million tons [1]