据悉，以沙特阿拉伯和俄罗斯为首的八个OPEC+成员国将于周日召开会议，审议3月份的产量政策。3 月是联盟此前制定的第一季度增产暂停计划的最后一个月。三位代表在周四重申，目前预计OPEC+将 批准延续现有策略，但也有代表指出，若出现重大供应中断，联盟可能被迫调整立场。 值得注意的是，本周油价上涨并未明显改变OPEC+的谨慎态度。伦敦布伦特原油价格周四一度升至每 桶70.35美元，为去年9月以来最高水平。市场此轮反弹主要受到地缘政治风险驱动，美国总统特朗普警 告伊朗必须就核协议达成新安排，否则可能面临军事打击。 分析人士指出，OPEC+通常不会因地缘政治紧张局势迅速调整供应政策，而是倾向于等待实际供应受 到影响后再采取行动。 回顾此前政策，八个OPEC+国家曾在去年迅速恢复部分产量，意在夺回全球市场份额。但随着燃料消 费进入季节性淡季，联盟在去年11月决定今年第一季度暂停进一步增产，以避免供需失衡加剧。 智通财经APP获悉，尽管美国对伊朗发出强硬威胁，推动国际油价升至每桶70美元附近，OPEC+目前仍 倾向于按既定计划维持现有供应限制政策。多位与会代表表示，该联盟预计将在周日举行的线上会议上 确认，3月份将继续执 ...

由于美国总统特朗普正考虑对OPEC成员国伊朗实施军事打击，国际原油价格周四大涨，美、布两油日内涨幅扩大至4%以上，布伦特原油站上70美元/桶， WTI原油站上66美元/桶，均为去年9月以来首次。最新消息称，伊朗发出警告，宣布计划于周日和下周一在霍尔木兹海峡举行实弹海军演习。 据伊朗塔斯尼姆通讯社29日报道，伊朗伊斯兰议会议长卡利巴夫表示，在当前局势下难以信任美国总统特朗普，在伊朗人民的经济利益未得到保证之前，谈 判不会进行。 此前多名消息人士向路透社透露，特朗普正考虑针对伊朗安全部队及领导层实施精准打击，以支持伊朗反政府抗议者。两名美国消息人士表示，这位美国总 统旨在为伊朗政权更迭创造条件。 本月早些时候，伊朗政府为平息抗议活动发起安全镇压，已导致数千人死亡。 另一方面，哈萨克斯坦的巨型田吉兹油田在上周因电气火灾导致产量下降后，正在分阶段重新启动，目标是在一周内恢复全面生产。 而在美国，作为世界最大的石油生产国和最大的液化天然气出口国，其原油和天然气生产商正在恢复油井的生产，此前冬季风暴"弗恩"在上周末造成了生产 中断。 瑞银分析师乔瓦尼·斯陶诺沃（Giovanni Staunovo）表示："哈萨克斯坦出现的 ...

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government's blockade has led to an energy crisis in Cuba, with oil reserves expected to last only 15 to 20 days due to the disruption of supplies from Venezuela and Mexico [1][2]. Group 1: Oil Supply Disruption - Cuba's oil supply from Venezuela, which was at 46,500 barrels per day in December, has been completely cut off following the U.S. military's capture of President Maduro on January 3 [2]. - Mexico's oil exports to Cuba averaged about 17,200 barrels per day for crude oil and 2,000 barrels per day for refined oil from January to September last year, but recent reports indicate that Mexico may halt further shipments due to U.S. pressure [2][5]. - Kpler's analysis indicates that Cuba's oil reserves, combined with a recent shipment from Mexico, can only sustain the country for 15 to 20 days [1][5]. Group 2: Economic Impact - The interruption of oil supplies is expected to have a devastating impact on Cuba's economy, which is already facing stagnation, with declines in tourism and sugar production [5][6]. - Frequent power outages are reported across Cuba, and without a restoration of oil supplies, the country may have to implement strict rationing measures [5][6]. - Experts warn that the economic crisis could threaten the survival of the Cuban government, as the situation becomes increasingly dire [6]. Group 3: Political Context - The U.S. administration is attempting to leverage the oil supply blockade to force Cuba into negotiations, with President Trump asserting that Cuba will soon fail without Venezuelan support [6]. - In response to U.S. threats, Cuban citizens have protested against perceived U.S. imperialism, while the Cuban president has vowed that the country will not be deterred by external pressures [6].

3月交货的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格29日盘中突破每桶70美元关口，创下去年9月以来新高。 市场分析人士认为，地缘政治风险上升是推动油价走高的主因。近日，美国对伊朗发出军事打击威胁并 加紧在海湾地区进行军事部署，伊朗则表示将予以报复。市场担忧中东地区局势紧张升级可能导致原油 运输中断。 哈格里夫斯－兰斯当股票经纪公司证券交易主管德伦·内森表示，冲突风险可能影响伊朗每日约300万桶 的原油产量，并干扰通过全球能源运输枢纽霍尔木兹海峡的油气运输。他指出，随着双方"言语交锋"升 级，布伦特原油期货价格也不断升高。 来源：新华社 数据显示，尽管市场仍存供应过剩预期，但受伊朗、委内瑞拉等地缘政治紧张局势影响，布伦特原油期 货价格今年1月以来已累计上涨超过14%。 ...

布伦特原油期货价格自9月以来首次触及每桶70美元，此前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普警告伊朗要么达成核 协议，要么面临军事打击。 布伦特原油期货价格自9月以来首次触及每桶70美元，此前美国总统唐纳德·特朗普警告伊朗要么达成核 协议，要么面临军事打击。 这个全球原油基准价格一度上涨2.3%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：刘明亮 这个全球原油基准价格一度上涨2.3%。 新浪合作大平台期货开户 安全快捷有保障 责任编辑：刘明亮 ...

Core Viewpoint - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission (SASAC) has approved the equity cooperation between China Petroleum and State Grid, involving the transfer of shares and acquisition of a futures company [2][12]. Group 1: Share Transfer Announcement - China Petroleum Group plans to transfer 379,262,372 A-shares, representing 3.00% of the total share capital, to State Grid Yingda Group through a state-owned share transfer agreement signed on December 26, 2025 [2][6]. - The transfer has received approval from the SASAC [6][12]. Group 2: Acquisition of Yingda Futures - China Petroleum's wholly-owned subsidiary, China Petroleum Capital Co., intends to acquire 100% of Yingda Futures for a price of RMB 1,129,286,232.00 [12]. - This acquisition was also approved by the SASAC [12]. - The qualification of China Petroleum Capital as the controlling shareholder of Yingda Futures requires approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, indicating potential uncertainty regarding the successful implementation of the transaction [12].

【美官员：#美方正向委内瑞拉移交一被扣油轮##美方正向委移交索菲亚号油轮#】据新华社报道，路透 社28日报道援引两名匿名美国官员的说法称，美国正向委内瑞拉移交本月初在委附近国际水域被美方扣 押的一艘油轮。这艘油轮当时悬挂巴拿马旗帜，被美方控制后驶向美国境内。这两名官员说，这艘油轮 是本月7日被美国海岸警卫队和美军在国际水域拦截扣押的"索菲亚"号。美方称该船为"无国籍、且受制 裁的'影子船队'油轮"。不清楚这艘油轮当时载有多少石油以及目前船上是否仍有石油。委内瑞拉方面 尚未证实这一报道内容。这两名美国官员没有解释美方"还船"的缘由。按照路透社的说法，自2025年年 底以来，美军在委附近海域共扣押7艘油轮，这些美方所称"关联委内瑞拉"的油轮多数船龄超过20年， 而安全认证和航运保险不足。航运和保险业人士说，这意味着这些油轮一旦出现碰撞或漏油事故，很难 索赔或追责。一家总部设于阿联酋迪拜、从事船舶回收业务的企业已经向美国政府申请许可证，准备收 购并报废这些遭美方扣押的油轮。美国本月3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发动大规模军事打击，强行控制委总统 马杜罗夫妇并将他们带到美国。美国总统特朗普随后宣称美国将"管理"委内瑞拉，并开采其 ...

风险提示：投资有风险，投资需谨慎。 从四小时技术图形来看，价格整体仍运行在清晰的中期上升通道之中，通道结构保持完好，回调节奏受控。近期价格沿通道中轴震荡抬升，并成功突破此前 震荡区间上沿，显示多头结构依旧占据主导。63美元附近已由前期阻力转化为重要支撑区域，下方62.30至61.30区间构成短线关键防守带，只要价格维持在 该区域上方，整体趋势并未遭到破坏。上方来看，64.90附近构成阶段性阻力，若在成交配合下有效突破，油价有望沿通道上轨进一步上探69至70美元区 域，该区域同时也是图表所显示的中期目标阻力区。综合来看，WTI原油当前处于趋势偏多但高位敏感的阶段，地缘政治风险溢价为油价提供了重要支撑， 但基本面分化限制了上涨的持续性。本周走势将高度依赖中东局势是否继续升级以及美元走势变化，在趋势结构未被破坏之前，多头仍占据主动，但短线追 高需警惕回调风险，关注关键支撑区域对价格的再度验证。 来源：ATFX 本周国际原油市场在多重因素交织下再度成为资金关注焦点。随着中东地缘政治风险明显升温、美国原油库存出现阶段性下降以及美元走势趋弱，原油价格 延续震荡上行节奏，并一度升至四个月高位，价格重返63美元上方。从市场定 ...

EIA数据显示,美国1月23日当周商业原油库存减少229.5万桶,主要因净进口减少170.6万桶/ 日。同期美国原油产量减少3.6万桶/日,炼厂开工率由93.3%加速回落至90.9%,但仍处同期高位, 原油加工量下降39.5万桶/日,寒潮影响在本期数据的体现较为有限。炼厂开工率下滑后美国汽柴 油累库压力有所放缓,美国原油与石油产品总库存高位小幅回落,单周数据指向有限。 风险因素:关税政策调整,地缘局势,OPEC+产量政策。 中信期货 EIA周度数据:炼厂加速降负,汽柴累库放缓 | 2026年1月29日 | 能源化工组 李云旭 | 重要提示:本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务,其中的观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格: | 从业资格号 | 和信息仅作参考之用,不构成对任何人的投资建议。我司不会 因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户;市场 | | 证监许可【2012】669号 | F03141405 | 有风险,投资需谨慎。 | | | 投资咨询号 Z0021671 | | | 单位: 万桶 | 公布值 | 前值 | 单位:万桶/日 | 公布值 | 前值 | | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - Due to geopolitical situations and cold weather, crude oil prices are expected to fluctuate strongly [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On January 4, OPEC+ decided to maintain the production plan set in early November 2025 and continue to suspend production increases in February and March 2026 [1] - In the off - season of crude oil demand, affected by winter storms, EIA data showed that U.S. crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, while refined oil inventories increased slightly, and the overall oil product inventory decreased [1] - U.S. oil producers lost up to 2 million barrels per day of production last weekend due to winter storms, about 15% of the national production [1] - The International Monetary Fund recently raised the 2026 world economic growth rate by 0.2 percentage points, and cold weather boosted diesel heating demand, alleviating demand concerns [1] - Global crude oil floating storage is high, and the crude oil market is still in a supply - surplus pattern. The EIA's latest January monthly report raised the 2026 crude oil supply - surplus margin [1] - Chevron is increasing the transportation of Venezuelan crude oil, but currently Venezuela has little impact on global crude oil supply and demand [1] - The U.S. Treasury announced a new round of sanctions on Iran on the 23rd, and there is a possibility of military action. The U.S. aircraft carrier strike group has arrived in the Middle East, and Iranian armed forces are on full alert. Iranian geopolitical risks are rising [1] - Zelensky said that the talks between Ukraine, the U.S., and Russia in the UAE were constructive. The U.S. trade representative said that India needs to do more to eliminate U.S. concerns about its purchase of Russian oil and obtain tariff exemptions [1] - The Kazakhstan Energy Ministry said that the safety restart of the Tengiz oil field's power supply system has been confirmed, and the CPC No. 3 offshore mooring terminal's maintenance is completed, but the operator said that only half of the field's production capacity can be restored before February 7 [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Today, the main crude oil futures contract, the 2603 contract, rose 3.69% to 472.5 yuan/ton, with a minimum price of 461.1 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 475.5 yuan/ton, and the open interest increased by 145 to 48,382 lots [2] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - The EIA monthly report raised the 2026 WTI crude oil price by $0.79/barrel to $52.21/barrel, lowered the 2026 global oil demand from the previous forecast of 105.2 million barrels per day to 104.8 million barrels per day, and raised the 2026 global oil production from the previous forecast of 107.4 million barrels per day to 107.7 million barrels per day [3] - The IEA raised the 2026 global oil demand growth rate by 70,000 barrels per day to 930,000 barrels per day, but raised the 2026 global oil production growth rate by 100,000 barrels per day to 2.5 million barrels per day [3] - On the evening of January 28, U.S. EIA data showed that for the week ending January 23, U.S. crude oil inventories decreased by 2.295 million barrels (expected to increase by 1.848 million barrels), 2.94% higher than the five - year average; gasoline inventories increased by 223,000 barrels (expected to increase by 1.009 million barrels); refined oil inventories increased by 329,000 barrels (expected to decrease by 583,000 barrels); heating oil inventories increased by 26,000 barrels (expected to increase by 279,000 barrels); Cushing crude oil inventories decreased by 278,000 barrels [3] 3.4 Supply and Demand - OPEC's latest monthly report showed that its November 2025 crude oil production was lowered by 21,000 barrels per day to 28.459 million barrels per day, and its December 2025 production increased by 105,000 barrels per day month - on - month to 28.564 million barrels per day [4] - U.S. crude oil production in the week of January 23 decreased by 36,000 barrels per day to 13.696 million barrels per day, and is near the historical high [4] - According to the latest data from the U.S. Energy Administration, the four - week average supply of U.S. crude oil products increased to 20.271 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.08% compared with the same period last year, and the decline compared with the same period last year has decreased [4] - Gasoline weekly production increased by 11.78% month - on - month to 8.757 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 8.266 million barrels per day, a decrease of 0.39% compared with the same period last year [4] - Diesel weekly production increased by 15.47% month - on - month to 4.069 million barrels per day, with a four - week average production of 3.721 million barrels per day, a decrease of 4.78% compared with the same period last year [4] - The week - on - week increase in gasoline and diesel production drove the week - on - week increase of the single - week supply of U.S. crude oil products by 2.49% [4]