Group 1 - The Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre criticized Prime Minister Justin Trudeau for being "too weak" in dealing with the U.S. and China, claiming that Canada should adopt a "strong stance" [1][3] - Poilievre accused Trudeau of failing to protect Canadian interests, highlighting that despite concessions made to the U.S., such as the cancellation of the digital services tax, Canada still faced increased tariffs [1][3] - The Canadian government stated that the average tariff rate imposed by the U.S. on Canadian goods remains one of the lowest among its trade partners, despite significant impacts from tariffs on specific sectors like lumber, steel, aluminum, and automobiles [1][4] Group 2 - China has imposed significant tariffs on Canadian products, including a 100% tariff on canola oil and oilseed meal, and a 25% tariff on Canadian seafood and pork [3][4] - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce initiated an anti-dumping investigation into Canadian pea starch, citing a significant increase in imports at prices below domestic sales, which has harmed local industries [4] - The Canadian government is discussing support measures for farmers affected by the trade tensions, as China is a major market for Canadian canola, accounting for over 50% of its exports [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - DBS Bank maintains a "Buy" rating for China Hongqiao (01378) after a strong performance in the first half of 2025, raising the 12-month target price from HKD 22 to HKD 29, supported by an optimistic aluminum price outlook [1] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, China Hongqiao's revenue increased to RMB 81 billion, a year-on-year growth of 10.1%, driven by higher average selling prices (ASP) of alumina and aluminum products, as well as increased sales volume [1] - The company's gross margin improved by 1.5 percentage points to 25.7%, while net attributable profit rose by 35% to RMB 12.36 billion, with a net profit margin increase of 3 percentage points to 17% [1][2] Financial Health - China Hongqiao's financial condition is improving, with interest coverage ratio significantly rising to 17.6 times due to optimized debt structure and improved interest rates [2] - Although no interim dividend was declared for the first half of 2025, management expects the annual dividend payout ratio to remain stable at 63% for the fiscal year 2024, leading to an implied dividend yield of 7% based on the projected earnings per share of HKD 2.60 for fiscal year 2025 [2] Market Outlook - DBS Bank anticipates strong aluminum prices to continue through 2026-2027, highlighting China Hongqiao's competitive advantages [2] - Management projects the average selling price for electrolytic aluminum in 2025 to be between RMB 20,600 and RMB 21,300 per ton, and for alumina between RMB 3,200 and RMB 3,300 per ton, indicating a robust price outlook [2] - Global aluminum demand is expected to grow by 3.1% in 2025, outpacing supply growth of 1.8% [2] Competitive Position - Under China's "anti-involution" guidelines, supply control is expected to strengthen, benefiting leading companies like China Hongqiao from rising average prices and market consolidation [3] - China Hongqiao aims to complete the transfer of approximately 2.2 million tons of capacity to Yunnan by the end of fiscal year 2025, representing 34% of total capacity, enhancing its production cost advantages through an integrated supply chain and increased use of green power [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, the expectation of interest rate cuts has converged, with the probability of a September rate cut dropping to 75%. The US manufacturing PMI in August reached a three - year high, and Fed officials' hawkish remarks have put pressure on the market. Domestically, the A - share market's risk appetite may have reached a short - term peak, and the bond market is expected to start a recovery. [2][3] - Most commodities are expected to show a volatile trend. Gold and silver prices are likely to remain volatile, waiting for Powell's speech. Copper, zinc, lead, tin, and other metals are expected to maintain narrow - range fluctuations. Aluminum and alumina are expected to oscillate, and lithium carbonate is in a game - based volatile stage. Crude oil is expected to be weak after a short - term technical correction, and agricultural products such as soybean meal and palm oil are also expected to fluctuate. [4][5][6] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The US 8 - month manufacturing PMI reached 53.3, a three - year high, with inflation pressure increasing. Fed officials' hawkish remarks have dampened the market's expectation of a September rate cut. The dollar has risen, and the US bond yield has increased. [2] - Domestic: The A - share market weakened after a high opening on Thursday, with the trading volume remaining at 2.4 trillion. The risk appetite has declined, and the bond market has a chance to recover. [3] 3.2 Precious Metals - Gold futures on COMEX fell 0.15% to $3383.5 per ounce, and silver futures rose 0.87% to $38.1 per ounce. The better - than - expected US PMI data and Fed officials' remarks have put pressure on gold prices. The market is waiting for Powell's speech, and it is expected that gold and silver prices will remain volatile. [4][5] 3.3 Copper - The Shanghai copper main contract maintained a volatile trend. The US manufacturing showed signs of improvement, but there are concerns about long - term demand after the tariff policy. The Fed's internal differences remain large, and the Codelco has lowered its copper production forecast. It is expected that copper prices will remain volatile in the short term. [6][7] 3.4 Aluminum - The Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20590 yuan/ton, up 0.49%. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots decreased. The good performance of the US and European manufacturing PMIs has improved the overseas demand expectation. It is expected that aluminum prices will oscillate in the current range. [8][9] 3.5 Alumina - The alumina futures main contract closed at 3124 yuan/ton, up 0.13%. The supply is slightly increasing, and consumption is stable. It is expected that alumina will continue to show a weak - oscillating trend. [10] 3.6 Zinc - The Shanghai zinc main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation. The better - than - expected US manufacturing PMI and Fed officials' remarks have put pressure on zinc prices. However, the decline in zinc prices has led to increased downstream purchases, and it is expected that zinc prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation in the short term. [11] 3.7 Lead - The Shanghai lead main contract showed a narrow - range oscillation. The inflow of delivery goods has led to a slight decline in inventory, and the inverted price difference between refined and scrap lead provides support for lead prices. It is expected that lead prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [12] 3.8 Tin - The Shanghai tin main contract showed a weak - oscillating trend. The supply of tin ore and scrap tin is tight, and the low LME inventory provides support, but consumption is weak. It is expected that tin prices will maintain a narrow - range oscillation. [13] 3.9 Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon main contract rebounded from a low level. The supply is marginally loose, and the demand side has different performances. It is expected that the futures price will maintain an oscillating trend in the short term. [14][15] 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate prices are in a game - based volatile stage. Although the spot market has improved, the supply increase may exceed the demand, and it is recommended to wait and see. [16][17] 3.11 Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated weakly. The cost pressure of nickel iron has eased slightly, and the demand for stainless steel is limited. The cost of nickel sulfate is high, and the demand has resilience. It is expected that nickel prices will oscillate, and attention should be paid to Powell's speech. [18][19] 3.12 Crude Oil - Crude oil oscillated strongly. Geopolitical factors are heating up, and it is expected that oil prices will be weak after a short - term technical correction. [20] 3.13 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The soybean meal 01 contract and rapeseed meal 01 contract both declined. The US soybean is affected by drought, and the new - crop export sales exceeded expectations. The market expects the state reserve to release soybeans in November, and it is expected that the domestic soybean meal will oscillate in a range. [21][22] 3.14 Palm Oil - The palm oil 01 contract declined. The production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of August increased slightly, and Indonesia's inventory in June continued to decline. It is expected that palm oil will oscillate and adjust. [23][24] 3.15 Metal Main Variety Trading Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, trading volumes, and other data of various metal futures contracts such as copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, gold, and silver on August 22, 2025. [26] 3.16 Industry Data Perspective - The document presents the data changes of various metals such as copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, gold, silver, and related products including steel, iron ore, and agricultural products from August 20 to August 21, 2025, including prices, inventories, and price differences. [27][32]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report provides trend forecasts and fundamental data for various commodities, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend, such as high - level oscillation, slight decline, waiting for policy guidance, etc. [2][5] 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Expected to oscillate at a high level, with a trend strength of 1. Yesterday, the closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 775.12, up 0.32%. The SPDR Gold ETF's position decreased by 1. [2][7][10] - **Silver**: Forecasted to decline slightly, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 yesterday was 9162, up 1.31%. The SLV Silver ETF's position (the day before yesterday) decreased by 28. [2][7][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: Waiting for the Fed's interest - rate cut guidance, with narrowing price fluctuations and a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract yesterday was 78,630, down 0.30%. PT Smelting's smelting plant extended its maintenance period due to equipment failure. [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Expected to oscillate weakly, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract yesterday was 22240, down 0.11%. LME zinc inventory decreased by 1875 tons. [2][15][17] - **Lead**: Supported by inventory reduction, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract yesterday was 16745, up 0.12%. Shanghai lead futures inventory decreased by 1481 tons. [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Forecasted to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of - 1. The closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract yesterday was 266,480, down 0.51%. [2][21][24] - **Aluminum**: Expected to oscillate within a range, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Aluminum's main contract was 20590. Domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 57.90 million tons, down 0.70 million tons. [2][25][27] - **Nickel**: Expected to oscillate at a low level, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of Shanghai Nickel's main contract was 119,830. [2][28][34] - **Stainless Steel**: The price is expected to oscillate due to the game between expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0. The closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,795. [2][29][34] Energy and Chemicals - **LPG**: Supported by macro - sentiment premium, with expected increase in import costs. [5] - **Propylene**: With tightening supply - demand and price support. [5] - **PVC**: Expected to oscillate in the short term, with downward pressure in the long term. [5] - **Fuel Oil**: Mainly in an oscillating trend, with short - term strengthening. [5] - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Weak and in consolidation, with a slight rebound in the high - low sulfur price difference in the overseas spot market. [5] - **PTA**: Due to unplanned device shutdown, a long - spread strategy is recommended. The closing price of the PTA main contract was 4860, up 1.72%. [2][61][62] - **MEG**: Expected to show a strong trend. The closing price of the MEG main contract was 4473, down 0.09%. [2][61][62] - **Benzene Ethylene**: Compressing profit margins. [2] - **Soda Ash**: Little change in the spot market. [2] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The US bio - diesel exemption volume may be lower than expected, leading to an increase in international oil prices. [5] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillating and consolidating at a high level. [5] - **Soybean Meal**: Due to the large increase in US soybeans overnight, Dalian soybean meal may rebound. [5] - **Soybean**: Rebounding and oscillating. [5] - **Corn**: Expected to run weakly. [5] - **Sugar**: Oscillating within a range. [5] - **Cotton**: The futures price fluctuates narrowly, waiting for new drivers. [5] - **Egg**: Attention should be paid to the rhythm of culling laying hens. [5] - **Live Pig**: Waiting for the end - of - month spot verification. [5] - **Peanut**: Attention should be paid to the listing of new peanuts. [5] Others - **Iron Ore**: Supported by the fact that the macro - risk preference has not significantly declined. The closing price of the iron - ore futures contract was 772.5, up 0.46%. [2][43][44] - **Rebar**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the RB2510 contract was 3,121, down 0.03%. [2][46][47] - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the HC2510 contract was 3,375, down 0.44%. [2][47] - **Silicon Iron**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the silicon - iron 2511 contract was 5638. [2][51] - **Manganese Silicon**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the manganese - silicon 2511 contract was 5820. [2][51] - **Coke**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the J2601 contract was 1664, down 0.8%. [2][54] - **Coking Coal**: Expected to oscillate widely. The closing price of the JM2601 contract was 1147, down 1.3%. [2][54] - **Log**: Oscillating repeatedly. The closing price of the 2509 contract was 804.5, down 0.1%. [2][57][58] - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: It is recommended to hold 10 short positions as appropriate. [5] - **Short - Fiber**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Bottle Chip**: Oscillating and strengthening due to upstream supply fluctuations. [5] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillating at a low level, with limited upward momentum. [5] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillating weakly. [5]

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies maintains a "Buy" rating on China Hongqiao (01378) and raises the target price to HKD 26.9, citing strong performance and confidence in future earnings growth [1][2]. Financial Performance - China Hongqiao reported a net profit of RMB 12.4 billion for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35% [2]. - The average selling price (ASP) of aluminum increased by 2.7% to RMB 17,853 per ton, while the ASP of alumina rose by 10.3% to RMB 3,243 per ton, significantly outpacing overall market trends [2]. - Unit gross profit for aluminum and alumina increased by RMB 225 and RMB 185 per ton, respectively, due to higher average selling prices [1]. Cost Management - The company effectively controlled its cost of goods sold (COGS), with aluminum costs rising slightly by 2% to RMB 13,300 per ton, influenced by higher carbon anode prices [2]. - Alumina costs increased by 5% to RMB 2,300 per ton, primarily due to rising caustic soda prices, while bauxite benefited from vertical integration [2]. Shareholder Returns - China Hongqiao announced a stock buyback plan of at least HKD 3 billion, in addition to the HKD 2.6 billion already repurchased, reflecting management's confidence in the company's performance [3]. - The company shifted its dividend payment from semi-annual to annual, maintaining a commitment to pay at least 60% of last year's dividends, which is expected to stabilize dividend expectations [3]. - If the HKD 3 billion buyback is completed in the second half of 2025, the total buyback for the year will reach at least HKD 5.6 billion, allowing for an additional 20% dividend payment on top of the 60% base [3].

杰富瑞还指出，进一步强调对股东回报的重视。与中期业绩一同公布的还有另一项至少30亿港元的股票 回购计划，这表明管理层对公司业绩充满信心。在2025年上半年，公司已回购并随后注销了超过1.87亿 股(约占已发行股份的2%)，总价值约为26亿港元。另一方面，中国宏桥将其股息支付方式从半年一次调 整为每年一次，即今年不再发放中期股息。然而，对股东回报的重视程度并未改变，最终股息支付将至 少与去年的60%以上持平。据管理层称，每年支付一次股息而非两次的原因是为了稳定预期的股息水 平，并避免上半年和下半年之间股息的差异(例如，2024全年为63%，1H24为56%，2H24为67%)。这对 长期投资者来说不应产生太大影响，因为股息保持稳定。更重要的是，如果在2025年下半年完成30亿港 元的回购，2025年的总回购额将至少达到56亿港元，这意味着在60%以上的基础上至少还能再支付20% 的股息。 杰富瑞认为，中国宏桥稳健的运营业绩。中国宏桥公布2025年上半年净利润为124亿元，同比增长 35%。铝的ASP同比增长2.7%至17853元/吨，与市场走势一致，而氧化铝的ASP增长了10.3%至3243元/ 吨，这一增长幅 ...

Core Viewpoint - HSBC Holdings reports that China Hongqiao's strong performance in the first half of 2025 is driven by rising demand and increases in both alumina and aluminum prices and sales [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - China Hongqiao achieved a net profit of 12.4 billion RMB in the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 35%, aligning with previous earnings forecasts [1] - The strong profit performance is attributed to a 10% year-on-year increase in alumina prices and a 3% increase in aluminum prices [1] - Sales volumes for aluminum alloys, processed products, and alumina increased by approximately 2%, 3%, and 16% respectively, benefiting from strong downstream demand and an increase in market share [1] Group 2: Future Outlook - HSBC expects aluminum prices to remain robust in the second half of 2025, projected to be between 20,600 and 21,300 RMB per ton, while alumina prices are anticipated to be between 3,200 and 3,300 RMB per ton [2] - The company plans capital expenditures of 12 to 13 billion RMB for 2025, consistent with 2024 levels, with additional capacity expected to be relocated to Yunnan, reaching 2.2 million tons by year-end [2] - Despite a forecasted decline in profit growth for the second half of 2025 due to a high comparative base from record alumina prices in Q4 2024, multiple favorable factors remain, including a 45 million ton production cap to maintain supply discipline and continued demand support from electric vehicle sales and export recovery [2]

中国宏桥(01378)发布公告，该公司将于2025年8月21日斥资3516.03万港元回购146.95万股股份，每股回 购价格为23.86-23.94港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Action Plan for Strengthening and Extending Key Advantage Industries in Guangxi" aims to enhance the quality of industrial clusters by focusing on traditional and emerging industries, promoting high-quality development in manufacturing [1] Group 1: Key Industries and Goals - Guangxi will focus on strengthening and extending industrial chains in key sectors such as machinery, automotive, new energy vehicles, high-end green home furnishings, light industry textiles, and resource recycling [1] - The plan sets a target to add one 500 billion yuan industry and one 400 billion yuan industry by the end of 2027, while cultivating leading enterprises and enhancing the integration of innovation, funding, and talent within industrial chains [1][2] Group 2: Implementation Actions - The plan outlines six major actions: extending industries, strengthening chains, enhancing technology, exploring application scenarios, market matching, and platform construction [1] - Specific actions include developing a roadmap for traditional industries, compiling a high-quality development map for key industrial chains, and implementing a "cutting-edge" technology initiative to address core technology challenges [2][3] Group 3: Organizational Support - To ensure effective implementation, Guangxi will establish a "chain leader + chain master" working mechanism, appointing responsible leaders and forming specialized working groups [3]

Meeting Overview - The third extraordinary general meeting of shareholders was held on August 21, 2025, with a combination of on-site and online voting methods [3][4][5] - The meeting was convened by the company's third board of directors and presided over by Chairman Tang Kaijian [4] Attendance - A total of 150 shareholders and their representatives attended the meeting, representing 119,459,739 shares with voting rights, accounting for 49.02% of the total voting shares [5][7] - Among them, 144 were small shareholders, representing 19,920,132 shares, or 8.17% of the total voting shares [5] Voting Results - The meeting reviewed and voted on several proposals, including amendments to the company's articles of association and various internal regulations [10][12][21] - Proposal 1 regarding the amendment of the articles of association received 99.79% approval from the total voting shares present [10] - Proposal 2 regarding the amendment of the board meeting rules also received 99.79% approval [12] - Proposal 3 concerning the independent director's appointment system was approved with 99.79% [15] - Proposal 4 regarding the amendment of shareholder meeting rules received 99.79% approval [17] - Proposal 5 concerning the voting counting system was approved with 99.79% [19] - Proposal 6 regarding the related party transaction decision-making system received 99.79% approval [21] - Proposal 7 concerning non-routine transaction decision-making system was approved with 99.79% [24] - Proposal 8 regarding external guarantee management system received 99.78% approval [26] - Proposal 9 concerning external investment management system was approved with 99.79% [28] - Proposal 10 regarding the prevention of fund occupation by controlling shareholders was approved with 99.79% [30] - Proposal 11 concerning the management system for directors and senior management shareholding received 99.79% approval [33] - Proposal 12 regarding the fundraising management system was approved with 99.79% [35] Legal Compliance - The meeting's procedures and voting results were confirmed to comply with relevant laws and regulations, ensuring the legality and validity of the resolutions passed [37]