Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,235, down 1.54% for the day and 2.85% year-to-date, but up 25.80% since the beginning of the year[3] - The S&P 500 Index closed at 6,817, down 0.24% for the day and 0.40% over the last three days, with a year-to-date increase of 15.62%[3] - The Nasdaq Composite Index saw a slight increase of 0.23%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 0.62%[3] Employment Data - The U.S. added 64,000 non-farm jobs in November, slightly above the expected 45,000, but the October figure was revised down to a loss of 105,000 jobs[9] - The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, the highest in over four years, exceeding the expected 4.5%[9] - Analysts express concerns about the overall health of the U.S. economy, indicating a "pause" in economic growth despite job additions[10] Market Reactions - Following the employment data, the market's expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate path remained stable, with a 24% probability of a rate cut in January 2026[9] - Major tech stocks in Hong Kong experienced significant declines, with SenseTime dropping over 6% and Tencent Music down over 3%[9] - Gold prices fell below $4,300 per ounce after a brief increase, as the market awaited the U.S. non-farm payroll data[9]

每经AI快讯，山东黄金(01787.HK)涨近4%，截至发稿涨3.31%，报34.36港元，成交额1.5亿港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Gold (01787) has seen a nearly 4% increase in stock price, currently up 3.31% at HKD 34.36, with a trading volume of HKD 150 million [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Shandong Gold announced an investment of RMB 1.4 billion in its wholly-owned subsidiary, Hainan Shengwei, to enhance its operational capabilities and capitalize on the Hainan Free Trade Port policy [1] - The investment will be fully allocated to the capital reserve and will not increase the registered capital of Hainan Shengwei [1] - Following this capital increase, Shandong Gold will continue to hold 100% ownership of Hainan Shengwei [1]

Core Viewpoint - Gold stocks experienced an afternoon rally, driven by the recent Federal Reserve interest rate decision and expectations of continued monetary easing, which is expected to support gold prices in the long term [1] Group 1: Gold Stock Performance - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693) rose by 3.83%, trading at HKD 31.46 [1] - Shandong Gold Mining (01787) increased by 3.48%, trading at HKD 3.49 [1] - Lingbao Gold Company (03330) saw a rise of 2.9%, trading at HKD 18.08 [1] - Zijin Mining Group (02899) gained 2.73%, trading at HKD 33.94 [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision - The Federal Reserve's December meeting resulted in a 25 basis point rate cut, but there was significant internal disagreement regarding future rate cuts, with three dissenting votes [1] - Fed Governor Milan advocated for a 50 basis point cut, while two regional Fed presidents opposed any rate cut [1] Group 3: Market Outlook and Predictions - Morgan Stanley's latest report predicts that rate cuts will continue, leading to a weakening of the US dollar [1] - The report forecasts that gold prices could reach USD 4,800 per ounce by Q4 2026 due to macroeconomic support [1] - Huaan Fund anticipates that the Fed will remain in a long-term easing cycle, which could further benefit gold if a dovish chair is selected [1] - The combination of loose monetary and fiscal policies, along with ongoing global central bank purchases of gold to diversify foreign exchange reserves, supports the long-term investment value of gold [1]

Group 1 - Gold stocks experienced an afternoon rally, with notable increases in share prices [1] - Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining (06693.HK) rose by 3.83%, reaching HKD 31.46 [1] - Shandong Gold Mining (01787.HK) increased by 3.48%, trading at HKD 3.49 [1] - Lingbao Gold Company (03330.HK) saw a rise of 2.9%, with shares priced at HKD 18.08 [1] - Zijin Mining Group (02899.HK) gained 2.73%, with a share price of HKD 33.94 [1]

消息面上，12月美联储议息会议如期降息25bp，但联储内部对于后续降息节奏的分歧较大，本次利率决 议共有三个反对票，联储理事米兰认为应降息50bp，两位地方联储主席主张不降息。大摩最新研究报告 指出，预计降息将持续，美元指数将重新走弱。大摩认为，黄金有望继续获得宏观层面的支持，到2026 年第四季度金价或将达到每盎司4,800美元。 智通财经APP获悉，黄金股午后上扬，截至发稿，赤峰黄金(06693)涨3.83%，报31.46港元；山东黄金 (01787)涨3.48%，报3.49港元；灵宝黄金(03330)涨2.9%，报18.08港元；紫金矿业(02899)涨2.73%，报 33.94港元。 华安基金认为，展望后市，美联储仍处于降息大周期，若鸽派主席任选，美联储降息节奏或更加激进， 有望利好黄金。宽货币之外，美国也处于宽财政阶段，美债偿本付息压力下的信用风险延续，全球央行 持续购买黄金以分散外汇储备。货币财政双宽松的趋势下，仍看好黄金中长期配置价值。 ...

Group 1: Employment Data - The U.S. non-farm employment increased by 64,000 in November, surpassing the market expectation of 50,000, but manufacturing employment has dropped to its lowest level since March 2022 [1] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.6%, the highest since September 2021, although this increase coincided with a rise in the labor participation rate [1] - Non-farm employment saw a significant decrease of 105,000 in October, with August and September also revised down by a total of 33,000 [1] Group 2: Wage Growth - The average hourly wage in November grew by 3.5% year-on-year, marking the lowest growth rate since May 2021, indicating a slowdown in real wage growth [1] Group 3: Market Reactions - Despite the overall weak data, there remains a divergence in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut path, leading to increased short-term volatility in gold prices [1] - The long-term appeal of gold as a safe-haven asset and its anti-inflation value continues to attract capital [1] Group 4: Gold Price Forecast - Goldman Sachs predicts that gold prices will reach $4,900 per ounce by the end of 2026, driven by increased holdings from households or institutional investors seeking to diversify risk amid high macroeconomic uncertainty [2] Group 5: Gold Industry Index Performance - As of December 17, 2025, the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index (931238) rose by 2.87%, with constituent stocks such as Shandong Gold and Jiangxi Copper seeing significant gains [2] - The gold stock ETF fund saw a turnover of 7.16% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 7.3346 million [2] Group 6: Top Holdings in Gold Industry Index - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Hong Kong-Shenzhen Gold Industry Stock Index account for 68.26% of the index, including companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold [3]

港股市场黄金及贵金属概念股走强，其中，中国白银集团涨超5%，赤峰黄金、山东黄金涨超3%，灵宝 黄金、紫金矿业涨超2%。 ...

Industry Investment Ratings - There is no clear overall industry investment rating provided in the report. However, some individual commodity ratings are as follows: - Platinum: Bullish in the long - term [1] - Palladium: Bullish in the short - term; consider [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy in the medium - term [1] - Fuel oil: Bearish [1] Core Views - In the short term, the market is adjusting due to factors such as decreased risk appetite, weak economic data, and limited policy signals. But the market adjustment since mid - November has opened up space for the upward movement of stock indices next year [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank has recently warned of interest rate risks, and attention should be paid to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision [1]. - Different commodities have different trends based on their own supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and macro - economic and policy environments. Summary by Categories Macro - finance - Stock indices are expected to continue a weak trend in the short term, but investors can consider gradually establishing long positions during the adjustment phase and using the discount structure of stock index futures to optimize long - term investment costs and win - rates [1]. - Bond futures are favored by asset shortage and weak economy, but short - term interest rate risks are signaled by the central bank, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision should be watched [1]. Metals Non - ferrous metals - Aluminum: Prices are in high - level wide - range oscillations due to limited industrial drivers and fluctuating risk appetite [1]. - Alumina: Production and inventory are both increasing, the fundamental situation is weak, some short - positions are closed in the short term with a price rebound, but the upward driving force is limited [1]. - Zinc: After the digestion of short - term macro - benefits, the fundamentals have improved, the cost center has moved up, but the price is under pressure due to news such as LME position limits, and low - long opportunities can be focused on [1]. - Nickel: The overall US non - farm data is weak, the macro - sentiment is fluctuating. Indonesian nickel ore premiums are stable in December. Global nickel inventory is high, and short - term prices may oscillate weakly. In the long - term, the primary nickel market remains in an oversupply situation [1]. - Stainless steel: The price of raw material nickel has declined, and the stainless steel futures are oscillating weakly. Short - term operations are recommended, and opportunities for selling hedging at high prices can be considered [1]. - Tin: Prices are oscillating in the short term due to the tense situation in the Congo and fluctuating macro - sentiment, but a bullish view is held in the long term, and opportunities for low - long after corrections can be focused on [1]. Precious metals - Gold: Prices are expected to oscillate in the short term but have upward potential in the long term [1]. - Silver: Prices are fluctuating sharply and are likely to have wide - range oscillations in the short term [1]. - Platinum: Prices are expected to be strong in the short term and can be bought at low prices in the long term [1]. - Palladium: May follow platinum to be strong in the short term; a [long platinum, short palladium] arbitrage strategy can be considered in the medium term [1]. New Energy - related - Industrial silicon: Northwest production is increasing while southwest production is decreasing. Polycrystalline silicon and organic silicon production schedules are decreasing in December. There is an expectation of capacity reduction in the long - term, and terminal installation is improving marginally in the fourth quarter [1]. - Polycrystalline silicon: It is the traditional peak season for new energy vehicles, energy storage demand is strong, supply - side复产 is increasing, and there is pressure at the 100,000 - yuan key point [1]. Black Metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: For both, the value of futures - spot positive arbitrage positions can be rolled for profit - taking. The futures - spot basis and production profit are not high, indicating that the price valuation is not high, and short - chasing is not recommended [1]. - Iron ore: Near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but the commodity sentiment is good, and there are upward opportunities for far - month contracts [1]. - Manganese silicon: Direct demand is weak, supply is high, inventory is accumulating, and the price is under pressure [1]. - Ferroalloy: Supply and demand provide support, the valuation is low, but short - term sentiment dominates, and the price is fluctuating strongly [1]. - Glass: Follows the general trend, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and the downward space is limited, and it may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Soda ash: Follows glass, with acceptable supply - demand and low valuation, and may be under pressure and oscillate [1]. - Coking coal and coke: After the release of negative news, there are signs of stabilization, and attention should be paid to the spot situation this week and whether downstream enterprises will start winter storage replenishment [1]. Agricultural Products - Soybeans: The USDA report has no highlights. The short - term negative impact of imported soybean auctions on the supply side should be focused on. It is recommended to short the 05 contract due to the expected bumper harvest in global main producing areas [1]. - Cotton: There is strong expectation of a domestic bumper harvest, and the purchase price of seed cotton supports the cost of lint. The downstream opening rate is low, but the yarn mill inventory is not high, with rigid replenishment demand. The cotton market is currently in a situation of "having support but no driver", and future policies, planting area, weather, and demand in the peak season should be watched [1]. - Sugar: There is a global surplus and a significant increase in domestic new - crop supply, with a strong consensus among short - sellers. If the price continues to fall, there is strong cost support, but the short - term fundamentals lack continuous drivers, and changes in the capital side should be watched [1]. - Corn: The quantity of grain entering the port drying towers is increasing, but farmers are still reluctant to sell. The short - term expectation is weakly oscillating, and attention should be paid to the grain - selling progress and inventory changes at each link [1]. - Soybean meal: US soybean exports are weak, South American weather has no obvious driving factors for speculation, and domestic far - month crushing margins are good. The short - term expectation is oscillating, and attention should be paid to subsequent auction volumes and the domestic customs inspection and quarantine policy [1]. - Pulp: Paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread [1]. - Logs: Log futures are falling due to the decline in foreign quotes and spot prices. The 01 contract is under great pressure as the delivery month approaches and is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: OPEC+ has suspended production increases until the end of 2026, the Russia - Ukraine peace agreement is being promoted, and the US has increased a new round of sanctions against Russia [1]. - Fuel oil: Follows crude oil in the short term. The demand for "14th Five - Year Plan" construction is likely to be disproven, the supply of Ma Rui crude oil is sufficient, and the asphalt profit is high [1]. - Asphalt: The raw material cost provides strong support, the futures - spot price difference is at a low level, and the mid - stream inventory may start to accumulate [1]. - Natural rubber: The cost of butadiene has increased, supporting downstream products. The private factory's transaction price has increased, and the main factory's listed price has been raised. The operating rate of butadiene rubber is high, and there are rumors of a South Korean factory closing, boosting market sentiment [1]. - PTA: The cost of PX is high, and the PTA profit is under pressure, but integrated enterprises have an advantage in raw material self - sufficiency. The polyester load is maintained at a high level, and the PTA consumption remains high [1]. - Short - fiber: The price continues to closely follow the cost [1]. - Styrene: The cost of benzene and naphtha provides some support, but the overall production economy is negative. The spot market sentiment is warming up, and the short - term replenishment demand is reflected in the slight premium of forward prices. The total inventory remains high without significant destocking [1]. - Propylene: There is limited upside space due to weak export sentiment and insufficient domestic demand, but there is support from anti - reflux and the cost side [1]. - PP: There are fewer overhauls, the operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is supported by high - priced propylene monomers [2]. - PE: The operating load is high, the supply pressure is large, downstream improvement is less than expected, and the cost is affected by the decline in oil prices [2]. - PVC: The market is returning to fundamentals, with more new capacity coming online, increasing supply pressure, and weakening demand [2]. - Caustic soda: The delivery of alumina in Guangxi has started, some alumina plants have postponed production, and the procurement rhythm has slowed down. There is inventory pressure in Shandong, and the price of liquid chlorine is high [2]. - LPG: Geopolitical and tariff issues are easing, the international oil and gas market is returning to a fundamentally loose situation. CP and FEI have recently rebounded. The northern hemisphere's combustion demand is gradually being released, and the domestic C3/C4 production and sales are smooth. The PG price is oscillating within a range after a correction [2]. Others - Shipping: In the container shipping market, the price increase in December did not meet expectations, and the price increase expectation during the peak season has been priced in. The supply of shipping capacity in December is relatively loose [2]. - Paper: The paper pulp futures are fluctuating due to the contradiction between "weak demand" and "strong supply" expectations. It is recommended to wait and see for unilateral operations, and consider a 1 - 5 reverse spread for the monthly spread. The log futures are expected to oscillate weakly [1].

Group 1: Historical Significance of Gold Artifacts - The Sanxingdui gold artifacts represent the peak of early precious metal craftsmanship in ancient China, with over 2000 grams of gold used in various items such as gold staffs and masks [1] - The earliest known coins were minted in Lydia around the 6th century BC, made from natural gold-silver alloys, leading to significant wealth for the Lydians [2] - The oldest known Chinese coins, known as Yingyuan, were used during the Warring States period and had a gold content of over 90%, primarily used for significant transactions and gifts [3] Group 2: The Golden Age of the Western Han Dynasty - The largest quantity of gold artifacts found in China comes from the Western Han tomb of the Marquis of Haihun, with 478 pieces totaling 115 kilograms, marking the "Golden Age" of the Western Han [4] - The purity of the gold artifacts from this period is exceptionally high, reaching 99%, with various forms serving both currency and ceremonial purposes [4] Group 3: Modern Gold Utilization and Value - Colombia is renowned for its historical gold production, with the Bogotá Gold Museum housing over 30,000 ancient gold artifacts [11] - Modern smartphones contain gold in various components, with an iPhone containing approximately 0.034 grams of gold, valued at about 13.3 yuan [11] - Historically, the total market value of all gold mined is around $30 trillion, with annual supply and demand stable at approximately 4,500 tons [12][13]