裘翔｜中信证券首席A股策略师 S1010518080002 板块配置｜六大主线板块当前处在什么位置？ 一个季度过去了，市场最关注的几个主线板块都处在什么位置？后续还可以期待什 么？我们从股价、估值、基本面等维度自上而下梳理了科技、消费、医药、新能源、 红利、出海六大板块一季度运行动态，并给出了相关配置线索。 风险因素：中美科技、贸易、金融领域摩擦加剧；国内政策力度、实施效果及经济复 苏不及预期；海内外宏观流动性超预期收紧；地缘政治风险。 尹欣驰 ｜中信证券 汽车及零部件行业首席分析师 S1010519040002 商用车｜卡车电动化最后一块拼图：重卡混动发展前瞻 重卡新能源化进展如火如荼，趋势明确不可逆。但现有主流的纯电动重卡受限于续航 里程限制，主要在短途和特定场景下渗透，中长距离场景的新能源化仍待开拓。复盘 乘用车新能源化进程，混动车型于纯电车型普及后两年开始加速渗透，我们认为混动 也将成为重卡新能源化的最后一块拼图。混动重卡在政策大力支持的新能源重卡范畴 内、且在中长距离运输场景中满足高效运输需求，经济性表现远超柴油重卡、且混动 技术已较为成熟，我们认为其已具备大范围商业化基础。我们预计2024/202 ...

Investment Rating - The report emphasizes the importance of stabilizing the stock and real estate markets to boost consumer spending, indicating a positive outlook for the consumption sector as asset prices stabilize [3][4]. Core Insights - The relationship between asset prices and consumer spending is complex, with asset price increases leading to higher income levels and economic activity, which in turn boosts consumption [3][5]. - The report highlights that real estate assets dominate household wealth in China, making housing price stability crucial for consumer confidence and spending [3][10]. - The impact of asset price fluctuations on discretionary consumption is more pronounced than on essential consumption, with discretionary spending responding more immediately to asset price changes [24][30]. - The report identifies key investment themes in the consumption sector, including smart consumption driven by technological advancements, the preferences of Generation Z, and the aging population's consumption needs [3][32]. Summary by Sections 1. Impact of Asset Prices on Consumption - The report outlines five main effects through which asset prices influence consumption: wealth effect, expectation effect, borrowing effect, savings effect, and cultural effect [5][6]. - It notes that the wealth and expectation effects are dominant, with a growing influence from borrowing and savings effects [6][10]. 2. Differences in Impact Between Housing and Stock Prices - Housing assets significantly outweigh financial assets in Chinese households, leading to a greater impact of housing price changes on consumer behavior compared to stock prices [10][12]. - The report discusses the synchronized movements of housing and stock prices, noting that while they often rise and fall together, their effects on consumption differ [19][20]. 3. Consumption Categories and Asset Price Influence - The report categorizes consumption into essential and discretionary, stating that asset price changes have a more immediate effect on discretionary spending [24][30]. - It emphasizes the need for updated classifications of consumption categories to reflect changing consumer behaviors and preferences [30]. 4. Investment Strategies Based on Asset Price Trends - The report suggests differentiated investment strategies for high-end and mass-market products, indicating that high-end products tend to perform well in strong liquidity environments [32][34]. - It highlights the importance of aligning investment strategies with the current economic cycle and consumer trends [32][34]. 5. Sector-Specific Insights - The report provides insights into specific sectors such as high-end liquor, where the relationship between asset prices and consumption is particularly strong [39][40]. - It also discusses the performance of high-end traditional Chinese medicine products, noting their resilience despite economic fluctuations [55][58].

Core Insights - In 2024, China Duty Free Group (601888.SH) experienced a significant decline in performance due to fluctuations in consumer demand, with revenue dropping to 56.474 billion yuan, a decrease of over 16.4% year-on-year, and net profit falling to 4.27 billion yuan, down 36.4% [1][2] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's revenue in Q4 2024 was 13.453 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 19.5%, while net profit plummeted by 76.9% to 348 million yuan, highlighting short-term operational pressures [1] - In Hainan, the revenue reached 28.892 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.13%, with a gross margin of 23.73%, down 2.03 percentage points [2] - The average spending per customer in Hainan's duty-free shopping dropped by 21.6% to 6,477 yuan per person in 2023, continuing into 2024 [3] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The share of Hainan sales in total sales has decreased from approximately 70% in 2021 to 51.4% recently, indicating a shift in consumer behavior as outbound tourism resumes [2] - The number of shoppers in Hainan's duty-free market fell by 15.9% to 5.683 million, and the number of items purchased decreased by 35.5% to 33.082 million [3] Group 3: Strategic Adjustments - To address the decline in mid-tier consumer spending, the company has adjusted its product mix since 2023, reducing the proportion of cosmetics and introducing high-end brands like LV and Dior [3] - Despite rapid growth in premium product revenue, it has not yet compensated for the decline in cosmetics sales [3] Group 4: Investment Projects - The company has invested 8.098 billion yuan in the Haikou International Duty-Free City project, with a total investment of 911 million yuan in 2024, generating 1.668 billion yuan in revenue to date [4] - The Sanya International Duty-Free City Phase I Project has seen a total investment of 1.846 billion yuan, with 911 million yuan invested in 2024, yielding 312 million yuan in revenue [4] Group 5: Business Expansion - The airport duty-free business showed strong performance, with revenue in Shanghai reaching 16.035 billion yuan, a decline of 10.02%, which is less than the decline in Hainan [5] - The company is expanding its city duty-free store network, having completed six stores in major cities and winning bids for six additional stores in cities like Guangzhou and Shenzhen [6][7]

点击注册小程序 查看完整报告 特别申明： 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 中国中免 4Q2024营业收入134.5亿元，归母净利润3.5亿元 202 5年3月28日 , 中国中免（ 6 01888. SH）公布2 02 4年年度报告：2024年公司营业收入564.7亿元，同比 下降16 . 38 % ；归母净利润 42.7亿元，同比下降36.44 % ；扣非归母净利润 41.4亿元，同比下降37.70 % 。单季度来看， 4Q2024公司营业收入134.5亿元，同比下降19.46%；归母净利润3.5亿元，同比下降 76.93%；扣非归母净利润2.7亿元，同比下降81.42%。 风险提示： 消费复苏进度不及预期，新项目推进不及预期 。 发布日期： 2025-04-01 免责声明 本订阅号是光大证券股份 ...

Group 1: Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism - Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism has successfully created a "cultural IP + tourism + technology" full industry chain layout through asset restructuring and strategic transformation, promoting deep integration and innovation in the cultural tourism industry [2][11] - The company faced challenges in its animation business from 2019 to 2020, resulting in a 45.02% revenue decline in 2020. However, it leveraged its rich animation IP resources to achieve a strategic transformation and enhance profitability, with 2023 revenue reaching 722 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 55.81% [2][11] - The company has expanded its tourism assets across regions such as "Daxiangxi," "Dahuangshan," "Dachengyu," and "Danangling," forming a national chain of scenic spots and enhancing brand value through diversified offerings [3][11] Group 2: Lexin Technology - Lexin Technology is a small but robust IoT chip design manufacturer with a stable operating team and a concentrated shareholding structure, which enhances team motivation and operational stability [4][11] - The company has established a competitive advantage by developing low-power, high-performance chips based on the open-source RISC-V architecture, which better meets the needs of AI devices at the edge [4][12] - Lexin's ecosystem includes a rich developer community of over 3 million global developers, supporting mainstream IoT applications and creating a platform effect that drives growth [12] Group 3: Tonghua Jinma - Tonghua Jinma has shifted from relying on mergers and acquisitions to innovation-driven high-quality development, focusing on R&D breakthroughs and asset optimization [17][19] - The company is advancing a new drug for Alzheimer's treatment, with a projected peak sales potential of around 7 billion yuan, addressing a significant market need for new therapies [17][19] - The company has a target market capitalization of 22.2 billion yuan, indicating a potential upside of 26% from its current market value, with a "buy" rating assigned [19] Group 4: China Duty Free Group - China Duty Free Group reported a 16.38% decline in revenue for 2024, with net profit down 36.4%, reflecting challenges in the duty-free market [21] - The company is expanding its city duty-free store projects in response to policy changes, aiming to enhance its market presence [21][24] - Despite the challenges, the company is focusing on digital transformation and member engagement to improve customer experience and retention [24]

Core Viewpoint - China Duty Free Group Co., Ltd. reported a decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024, indicating challenges in the duty-free industry amid a slow global economic recovery and increased competition [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company achieved operating revenue of 56.474 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38% [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders was 4.267 billion yuan, down 36.44% year-on-year [1]. Market Challenges - The decline in revenue and profit is attributed to a complex set of factors, including a sluggish global economic recovery and cautious consumer spending on non-essential goods [2]. - Increased competition in the duty-free sector, with new license holders entering the market and overseas duty-free markets vying for customers, has impacted the company's market share [2]. - Some stores experienced lower foot traffic due to fluctuations in the tourism market, and the rise of online channels has diverted sales from physical stores [2]. - In Hainan, the company's revenue was 28.892 billion yuan, accounting for approximately 51.16% of total revenue, which represents a year-on-year decline of 7.55 percentage points [2]. Future Opportunities - There is potential for growth if the government relaxes duty-free policies, such as increasing duty-free limits and expanding product categories, which could stimulate consumer spending [3]. - The recovery of the global tourism market is expected to significantly increase both outbound and inbound travel, benefiting airport duty-free stores [3]. - Digital transformation is a key focus area, with plans to enhance online shopping experiences and marketing strategies to tap into online consumer potential [3]. - Strengthening partnerships with brand owners to introduce exclusive and popular brands can enhance consumer appeal and drive revenue growth [3]. - The company is accelerating its global business expansion, having opened 8 new duty-free stores in international hubs like Singapore Changi and Dubai International Airport, and experience stores in key shopping districts [3]. - International business revenue grew by 37% during the reporting period, increasing its share of total revenue to 28% [3].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a rating of "Add" for China Duty Free Group (601888) with a target price based on the last closing price of 61.61 [1] Core Views - The overall performance of China Duty Free Group is under pressure, awaiting a recovery in consumer spending [1] - The significant decline in revenue and net profit is attributed to multiple factors including market conditions and industry cycles, with a notable drop in consumer demand impacting the duty-free sector [5] - The company is expected to see a rebound in profits from 2025 to 2027, with projected net profits of 49.51 billion, 57.09 billion, and 64.41 billion respectively, indicating a growth rate of 16.04%, 15.31%, and 12.81% [8] Financial Performance Summary - For the fiscal year 2024, the company reported revenue of 564.74 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 16.38%, and a net profit of 42.67 billion, down 36.44% [4][5] - The fourth quarter of 2024 saw revenue of 134.53 billion, a decline of 19.46%, and a net profit of 3.48 billion, down 76.93% [4] - The sales revenue from duty-free goods was approximately 386.66 billion, a decrease of 12.58%, while sales from taxable goods fell to about 170.95 billion, down 23.49% [5] - The revenue from Hainan, a key market, dropped significantly by 27.13% to about 288.92 billion, despite an increase in market share [5] Growth Potential - The domestic duty-free business performed well, benefiting from the expansion of visa-free countries and increased international flight volumes, with revenue from Beijing airports growing over 115% and Shanghai airports nearly 32% [6] - The company has made significant progress in channel expansion, securing operating rights for 10 new airport and port duty-free projects, and has signed agreements for six city duty-free stores [6] - The overall gross margin for 2024 was 32.03%, a slight increase of 0.21 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 8.61%, down 2.15 percentage points [7][8] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for 2025-2027 includes expected earnings per share (EPS) of 2.39, 2.76, and 3.11 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 26X, 22X, and 20X [8][9] - Revenue projections for the next three years are 61.68 billion, 68.32 billion, and 75.32 billion, with growth rates of 9.23%, 10.76%, and 10.24% respectively [9]

2024年，中国中免交出了一份营收与净利润"双降"的成绩单。财报显示，公司全年实现营业收入564.74 亿元，同比下降16.38%；归母净利润42.67亿元，同比大幅缩水36.44%。这一下滑主要归因于核心市场 ——海南离岛免税业务的崩塌。 营收净利双降，海南市场成最大拖累 其一，海南市场"雪崩式"下滑。 海南地区营收从2023年的396.5亿元骤降至288.92亿元，同比降幅达27.13%，占总营收比例由58.71%降 至51.16%。海口海关数据显示，2024年海南离岛免税购物金额、购物人次、购物件数分别同比下降 29.3%、15.9%、35.5%。多重因素叠加导致这一结果： 出境游分流：国际航班恢复后，消费者转向日韩、东南亚等免税购物目的地； 消费降级与国货崛起：贝恩报告显示，2024年中国奢侈品市场出现15年来首次下滑，完美日记、花西子 等高性价比国货挤压进口美妆份额； 竞争加剧：海南免税经营主体增至6家，离岛免税店达12家，中免一家独大格局被打破。 其二，利润端压力凸显。 费用刚性：机场渠道租金随客流恢复上升，叠加存货跌价及合同履约成本减值损失7.4亿元，进一步压 缩利润空间； 四季度恶化：Q4归母 ...

投资分析意见：根据公司公告，公司拟向全体股东每股派发现金红利1.05 元，占24 年股东净利润的 50.91%。考虑到终端消费承压及出境游等对海南旅游消费的分流尚未看拐点，我们下调公司盈利预 测，预计25-26 年归母净利润为49.76/61.08 亿元（前值55.98/67.57亿元），新增27 年盈利预测为68.02 亿元，对应25-26 年PE 为26/21/19 倍，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：终端转化率不及预期，市内免税政策不及预期，海南离岛免税竞争加剧风险。 公司公布24 年年度报告，业绩低于预期。公司公布2024 年度报告。根据公司公告，2024年全年实现营 业收入564.7 亿元，同比下降16.38%，实现归属上市公司股东净利润42.7亿元，同比下降36.4%。公司 2024Q4 单季度实现归母净利润3.48 亿元，同比下滑76.9%。 从客流上海南两机场国内客流吞吐量有所增加，但离岛免税规模下降，公司市场份额有所提升。美兰国 际机场2024 全年累计完成运输航班超过18.5 万架次、旅客吞吐量超过2689万人次、货邮吞吐量超过20.9 万吨，同比增长8%/10.5%/19.7%，三大生产运 ...

近日中国中免(601888)发布公告，2024年实现营业收入564.74亿元，同比下降16.38%；实现归母净利润42.67亿元，同 比下降36.44%。公司经营活动产生的现金流量净额同比下降47.51%，主要是报告期内销售收款减少所致。 按季度来看，公司2024年业绩呈现出加速下滑的态势，2024年第二、第三、第四季度，分别下滑37.6%、52.53%、 76.93%，其中第四季度利润同比降幅最大。公司的盈利能力也明显下降，去年第四季度销售毛利率为28.54%，创出 2023年来最低。以净资产收益率来看，中国中免的困境更为凸显，2024年加权平均净资产收益率仅为7.88%，为历史 同期最低。 需求承压是中国中免业绩下降的重要原因。根据海口海关数据，2024年全年，海口海关共监管海南离岛免税购物金额 309.4亿元，同比下降29.3%。展望2025年公司业绩能否好转依然存疑。今年1—2月，海南离岛免税购物金额84.1亿 元，同比下降13.3%。 部分机构也大幅下调中国中免未来业绩预期。其中，东吴证券最新预测公司2025年、2026年归母净利润分别为49.8亿 元和57.6亿元，此前预测为60.2亿元和69.7 ...