程子怡 国盛证券商社分析师: 好的，欢迎大家参加我们国盛商社的这个免税行业的交流分享。首先祝各位投资者开工大 吉，然后也感谢专家的时间。那首先的话，就请专家分享一下，就是最新的整个春节假期 期间，海南离岛免税的全全口径的一个数据情况。可以分，帮我们分这个海关和商务两种 口径来分别讲一下。 免税行业专家: 好的，非常开心，今天也能跟大家分享一下春节期间的离岛免税的销售情况。现在其实商 务口径和海关口径的数据都已经出来了。首先第一个，大家也知道商务口径的话，普遍的 会比免海关的口径都会要偏高一点。这个一个是涉及到统计口径，二个还有一个时间差的 问题，咱们这个里面就不做过多的一些去做分析了，还是以海关的数据作为最主要的。那 首先第一个能明确的一个观点话就是今年的春节的销售的话，应该来说，比我们春节之前 所普遍所做出的行业里面的预测，当时是预计是 15 在 15~20%左右的一个增速。 应该说目前的，做出来的成绩是远超于年前的一个这种预测吧。那么就目前来看的话，现 在整个按同期可比的数据。按 9 天，那整个 26 年的春节的话，那统计数据大家也看到了， 是 27.2 个亿，那么日均也突破了 3 个亿。那这样跟 25 ...

春节假期服务消费跟踪反馈（持续更多更新。 。 ） #免税： 根据调研，离岛免税春节期间（截止初六）较去年假期同比增长22%左右，增速符合预期，虽然增速较1 月放缓，但结构优化，黄金+手机增速放缓明显（主要受金价波动+手机限购影响），而香化、服饰、精品增速有 所提升，好于12月及1月增速水平，品类毛利稳定略有改善。 ） #免税： 根据调研，离岛免税春节期间（截止初六）较去年假期同比增长22%左右，增速符合预期，虽然增速较1 月放缓，但结构优化，黄金+手机增速放缓明显（主要受金价波动+手机限购影响），而香化、服饰、精品增速有 所提升，好于12月及1月增速水平，品类毛利稳定略有改善。 #黄金珠宝： 根据调研，以华东地区为样本，春节大盘下滑15%以上，潮宏基、周大福保持小双位数增长，其他品 牌下滑20%以上，大盘表现低于预期，主要系三四线城市消费疲软，婚庆需求、客单价表现相对一般，而一二线 城市表现优于三四线市场。 样本加盟商表示26年小幅新增潮宏基门店，小幅关闭或优化其他品牌门店。 #茶饮： 2月古茗单店保持双位数增长态势，春节期间蜜雪单店保持正增长态势。 。 #黄金珠宝： 根据调研 春节假期服务消费跟踪反馈（持续 ...

为衔接春节消费旺季，免税城于2月15日起推出"财神驾到"主题文化活动。五路财神将驻守免税城主入口及核心景观区"天际秘林"，市民游客可通过互动打 卡赢取定制"元宝"，参与聚宝盆、爆金站、上上签、招财筒等趣味项目，兑换香化产品、现金红包等礼品。每日还将举行三场财神巡游，随机派送惊喜礼 遇。大年初一起，天际秘林27米巨屏将随机投放万元现金红包雨。 近日，海南自贸港封关运作后的首个春节，cdf海口国际免税城完成一轮业态扩容。海口市中免日用消费品免税店正式开业，17家品牌新店同步亮相，涵盖 周六福全国免税首店、周大生×国家宝藏海南免税首店、Chiikawa水族馆主题海南首店及春光全国首家旗舰店等。首店集聚效应成为吸引客流、激发消费活 力的重要驱动力。 在促销让利方面，免税城全品类推出满额立减、多倍积分、超值组合包等优惠措施。海口市秀英区同步发放消费券，免税消费最高可立减4000元；新开业的 海口市中免日用消费品免税店亦发放专属消费券，设三档面额，即领即用。 cdf海口国际免税城有关负责人表示，通过首店引入与节庆文化IP的深度融合，正以场景创新重构人、货、场关系，打造兼具购物体验与在地文化特色的新 春消费目的地。 （中国 ...

正值海南自贸港封关运作稳步推进的关键阶段，海控全球精品免税城迎来五周年华诞。1月31日，以"无限热爱·'5'出精彩"为主题的五周年店庆盛典启幕，作 为封关运作后免税行业标杆性庆典活动，海控免税以"十重礼遇"回馈消费者，通过线上线下全渠道联动，生动展现自贸港新阶段下免税行业的蓬勃活力与发 展潜力。 "封关后免税商品品类更丰富、价格更实惠，这次店庆秒杀抢到心仪手机，节省近千元。"来自广东的游客张先生的感受，正是自贸港免税消费升级的生动写 照。此外，抖音、美团等平台同步上线"百万补贴"计划，涵盖数码、黄金及通用券等多重福利，通过"线上囤券、线下核销"模式，打通线上线下消费链路， 进一步提升免税购物的便利化与多元化水平。 海控免税相关负责人表示，"无限热爱·'5'出精彩"的主题，既贴合年轻世代消费情感与价值认同，也契合封关后自贸港消费新趋势。通过数字化手段实现全 渠道融合，联动主流互联网平台拓展消费场景，引入潮玩、街舞赛事等年轻化IP，打造"免税+文旅"新消费模式，旨在吸引年轻客群，推动海南免税从购物 场所向生活方式升级地标转型。 作为海南自贸港封关运作后的首个店庆活动，此次盛典具有里程碑意义。海控免税相关负责人表示 ...

Summary of Hainan Duty-Free Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The Hainan duty-free market has experienced significant fluctuations in sales, with a doubling of sales from 2019 to 2021, followed by a sharp decline in 2022 due to the pandemic. Sales showed some recovery in 2023 but did not meet expectations. A slight decrease in sales is anticipated in 2024 as high-end consumers shift to overseas spending after the reopening of international flights. The year 2025 is expected to bring a dynamic balance with new policies expanding eligible demographics and product categories, while 2026 may see a decrease in taxable sales proportion, stabilizing or slightly increasing overall sales [1][4]. Key Insights and Arguments - The market share of duty-free products in Hainan is approximately 85%-90%, with Hainan Duty-Free Group (HDFG) projected to achieve sales of around 5 billion yuan in 2025, over 80% of which will come from taxable business [1][6]. - The expected tourist flow in 2026 is around 35 million, with high-priced items performing well and conversion rates improving, indicating a positive outlook for overall sales [1][7]. - Price advantages in the Hainan duty-free market vary by time and SKU, with significant discounts on luxury items such as cosmetics (10-15%), gold (10-20%), and mobile phones (200-500 yuan cheaper than mainland prices) [1][8][9]. Historical and Current Policy Context - The Hainan duty-free policy has evolved since its inception, with the tax-free allowance increasing from 5,000 yuan to 100,000 yuan by 2020. The 2025 policy further expands eligible demographics and product categories, including domestic goods [2]. Future Policy Optimization Directions - Future optimizations for the Hainan duty-free policy could include expanding product categories (e.g., liquor, large drones), relaxing purchase limits on cosmetics, and broadening the list of items available for island residents [5]. Market Competition Landscape - The competitive landscape in Hainan remains stable, with HDFG holding a market share of approximately 85%-90%. The attractiveness of Hainan continues to draw increasing tourist traffic [6]. Sales Expectations for 2026 - Sales expectations for 2026 are optimistic, driven by increased tourist numbers, high-value product performance, and improved conversion rates due to recovering consumer spending power and promotional effects [7]. Economic Growth Drivers in Hainan - Hainan's economic growth is driven by quantifiable factors contributing approximately 10% growth, alongside unquantifiable factors such as prolonged bull markets, increased tourism due to travel restrictions in Japan, and upcoming events like concerts and international competitions. The projected income growth for 2026 is estimated at 15%-20% [3][12]. Impact of Sales Growth on Overall Fee Rates - A 10%-25% increase in sales in Hainan is expected to compress overall fee rates by 0.x to 1.x percentage points, primarily affecting fixed cost amortization. However, channel structure, product mix, exchange rates, and scale effects have a more significant impact [3][13]. Factors Influencing Profit Margins - Profit margins in Hainan are influenced by various factors, including scale, product mix, channel structure, exchange rates, and discount levels, which can vary significantly, necessitating detailed analysis of all variables [3][14].

Core Insights - The Hainan Free Trade Port has experienced a surge in activity and consumer interest since its full closure operation began on December 18, 2025, with significant increases in orders and sales across various sectors [3][10] Group 1: Aviation Maintenance Industry - The one-stop aircraft maintenance base in Hainan has become a recognized hub for global airlines, with many foreign carriers queuing for aircraft repairs [4][5] - The base has completed over 2,500 aircraft repairs and 300 complete aircraft paint jobs, attracting over 20 foreign airlines, including Qatar Airways and VietJet Air [5] - Hainan's strategic location enhances its appeal for international airlines, offering cost-saving maintenance policies that include tax exemptions and expedited services [5] Group 2: E-commerce and Live Streaming - The Hainan Silk Road Cross-Border Live Streaming Center has seen a significant increase in activity, with foreign hosts promoting Chinese products to global audiences [7][8] - The center has added 24 new registered enterprises since the full closure operation began, indicating a growing interest in utilizing live streaming for international sales [8] - The efficiency of logistics and order processing has improved, with a reported 150% increase in audience engagement and a 30% reduction in order fulfillment time [7] Group 3: Duty-Free Shopping - The CDF Sanya International Duty-Free City has reported a dramatic increase in consumer traffic and sales, with many popular products sold out shortly after the store opens [9][10] - The number of duty-free shoppers reached 585,000, with total spending of 3.89 billion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 32.4% and 49.6% respectively [10] - The combination of zero tariffs and improved customs efficiency has made Hainan an attractive destination for duty-free shopping, significantly boosting consumer spending [10]

Core Insights - The tourism market in Wanning during the New Year holiday showed strong performance with a significant increase in visitor numbers and spending, indicating a robust recovery and growth in the sector [2] Group 1: Visitor Statistics - Wanning received 266,400 tourists during the New Year holiday, representing a year-on-year increase of 52.72% [2] - The total tourism expenditure reached 200 million yuan, marking a 72.61% increase compared to the previous year [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The internationalization trend in Wanning's tourism is evident, with inbound orders increasing nearly fourfold, driven by the appeal of the "duty-free shopping + beach vacation" model [2] - The Wangfujing International Duty-Free Port experienced a significant rise in international customer flow, with sales during the holiday period increasing by 84% and customer traffic growing by 50% [2] Group 3: Demographics and Activities - Young travelers are the primary demographic, with various activities such as music parties and bonfire nights attracting large crowds [2] - Family-oriented tourism is on the rise, with rural tourism generating 1.6361 million yuan in revenue, a staggering increase of 272.51% year-on-year [3] - The popularity of parent-child educational projects remains high, exemplified by hands-on experiences at the Xinglong Tropical Botanical Garden [3]

Summary of Hainan Duty-Free Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the Hainan duty-free market, particularly sales performance during the New Year holiday period and projections for 2026 [1][2]. Key Points and Arguments Sales Performance - During the New Year holiday, total sales in Hainan exceeded 720 million yuan, showing significant growth compared to the previous year [3][5]. - December sales were estimated at 3.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of approximately 20% and a month-on-month growth of 30% [3][4]. - The average transaction value during the New Year holiday reached 8,200-8,300 yuan, the highest level of the year, significantly above the 7,000 yuan average in November and December [3][5]. Factors Driving Sales Growth - Increased number of tourists, lower hotel prices, and high demand for luxury items such as gold and high-end 3C products contributed to the rise in average transaction value [6][7]. - Government subsidy policies played a crucial role, with estimates suggesting that every 1 yuan in subsidies could generate 4 to 5 yuan in sales growth [8][9]. Future Projections - For the 2026 Spring Festival, sales in Sanya International Duty-Free City are expected to grow by 6-8%, with overall sales growth in Hainan projected at the same rate [3][17][18]. - The contribution of foreign tourists to duty-free sales is anticipated to reach around 3% in 2026, with local residents' consumption expected to improve significantly during the Spring Festival [11][32]. Product Category Performance - In December and during the New Year, 3C products and gold accounted for about 18% of total sales, with 3C products making up 11-12% and gold around 7% [12]. - Luxury goods such as bags and watches represented approximately 30% of sales, while cosmetics accounted for 31-32% [12][13]. Profit Margins - The average profit margin for 3C and gold products is around 10-11%, while cosmetics can reach 32% for certain companies [13]. - Luxury goods maintain a higher profit margin of about 40% [13]. Government and Corporate Subsidies - The government is expected to continue its subsidy policies in 2026, with a focus on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption [9][24]. - In 2025, approximately 250 million yuan in consumer vouchers were issued, with expectations for similar or increased support in 2026 [26][27]. Market Dynamics - The duty-free shopping segment is currently dominated by Sanya and Haikou, with Sanya accounting for about 60% of the market [16]. - The introduction of duty-free shops for local residents is anticipated to have minimal impact on the overall market, as these products represent a small fraction of total sales [20]. Additional Important Insights - The impact of foreign tourists on sales is currently limited but is seen as a potential growth area [19][31]. - The overall sentiment regarding consumer confidence and tourism recovery is optimistic, with expectations for improved sales performance in 2026 [15][33].

Core Insights - The 2024-2025 Consumption White Paper reveals a significant recovery in the global duty-free and travel retail market, with China Duty Free Group (CDFG) leading the industry with over 1 billion users and a focus on experiential consumption trends [1][2][3] Global Duty-Free Market Overview - The global duty-free and travel retail market is projected to reach $74.13 billion in 2024, marking a 3% year-on-year growth and recovering to 85.8% of 2019 levels [1][18] - The Asia-Pacific and European regions remain the primary markets, with notable growth in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East [1][20] - Key channels such as airports, onboard, and ferry services are experiencing significant growth, while core categories like cosmetics and alcohol show stable performance [1][20] Chinese Duty-Free Market Dynamics - CDFG holds a dominant market share of 78.7% in the Chinese duty-free market, significantly surpassing competitors like Hainan Duty Free (7.1%) and Hainan Tourism Duty Free (4.6%) [2][14] - The introduction of new delivery models and the acceleration of city duty-free store policies have enhanced shopping convenience, contributing to a 60.8% year-on-year increase in inbound tourist numbers in 2024 [2][14] Consumer Insights - CDFG's user base surpassed 104 million in 2024, reflecting a 26.1% increase, with foreign users growing by 53.9% and their spending increasing by 84.5% [3][14] - The membership count reached over 45 million by June 2025, with a demographic profile showing a predominance of female users (74%) and a higher male representation in high-end consumption [3][14] Consumer Segmentation - CDFG identifies nine core consumer segments, each with distinct preferences and behaviors, including "Refined Self-Care Seekers," "Luxury Lifestyle Enthusiasts," and "Silver Enjoyment Group" [4][14] - Each segment exhibits unique consumption characteristics, such as high-frequency purchases and brand loyalty among urban elites, and a focus on quality and experience among older consumers [4][14] Product Category Trends - The consumption trend in 2024 shows stability in cosmetics, over 20% growth in alcohol (led by whiskey), and a more than 40% increase in ultra-high-end luxury products priced over 100,000 yuan [5][16] - CDFG has developed a comprehensive product matrix with over 360,000 SKUs, introducing more than 200 new brands and exclusive releases of limited-edition products [5][16] CDFG's Competitive Advantage - CDFG's leading position is attributed to its scale, comprehensive channel strategy, robust supply chain, and refined membership operations [6][14] - The company has established a full-scenario network, including 12 city duty-free stores and international boutiques in key locations, enhancing its market presence [6][14] Future Outlook - By 2025, China is expected to surpass traditional duty-free markets, becoming the largest globally, with CDFG planning to transition into a lifestyle platform [7][14] - The company aims to integrate duty-free shopping with cultural and entertainment experiences, while also focusing on user needs and introducing local brands to international tourists [7][14]

Group 1 - The core theme of the National Day Golden Week activities at Haikou Global Duty-Free City is "Charming National Day, Shine Freely," which aims to enhance consumer enthusiasm through immersive experiences and diverse interactive activities [1][4][9] - Various themed areas and unique activities, such as free mooncakes and popular milk tea giveaways, have attracted a significant influx of visitors, creating a festive atmosphere [1][4] - The "Red Song Flash Mob" event has resonated with patriotic sentiments, drawing participation from over a hundred tourists, showcasing the blend of entertainment and cultural engagement [4] Group 2 - The demand for 3C digital products has surged, with brands like Huawei and Apple seeing high foot traffic, particularly for the new iPhone 17 series, indicating a strong consumer interest in tech during the holiday [6][8] - Haikou Duty-Free has partnered with brands to create exclusive shopping experiences, such as "Tech Classes" and pop-up stores, enhancing the shopping environment and offering unique sensory experiences [8][9] - The company has introduced long-term benefits and promotions throughout October, ensuring that the shopping experience extends beyond the holiday period, catering to various consumer preferences [8][9]