Core Viewpoint - China Heart and Heart Fertilizer has been actively repurchasing its shares, indicating a strategy to enhance shareholder value amidst market fluctuations [2] Summary by Category Share Buyback Activity - On November 4, China Heart and Heart Fertilizer repurchased 763,000 shares at a price range of HKD 7.090 to HKD 7.220, with a total buyback amount of HKD 5.4681 million [2] - The stock closed at HKD 7.210 on the same day, reflecting a decrease of 0.83%, with total trading volume of HKD 21.7861 million [2] - Year-to-date, the company has conducted 7 buybacks, totaling 3.819 million shares and an aggregate buyback amount of HKD 25.8227 million [2] Detailed Buyback Information - The buyback details are as follows: - November 4: 763,000 shares at a maximum price of HKD 7.220 and a minimum price of HKD 7.090, totaling HKD 5.4681 million - October 31: 389,000 shares at a maximum price of HKD 7.350 and a minimum price of HKD 7.290, totaling HKD 2.8477 million - October 30: 378,000 shares at a maximum price of HKD 7.380 and a minimum price of HKD 7.300, totaling HKD 2.7784 million - October 28: 579,000 shares at a maximum price of HKD 7.480 and a minimum price of HKD 7.240, totaling HKD 4.2332 million - October 27: 704,000 shares at a maximum price of HKD 7.400 and a minimum price of HKD 7.250, totaling HKD 5.1769 million - June 11: 485,000 shares at a maximum price of HKD 5.440 and a minimum price of HKD 5.230, totaling HKD 2.5882 million - June 10: 521,000 shares at a maximum price of HKD 5.250 and a minimum price of HKD 5.190, totaling HKD 2.7301 million [2]

Core Points - The company announced that its Chairman and General Manager Yuan Qirong, along with Director and Deputy General Manager Yuan Peng, and Board Secretary Wu Changhao, plan to increase their holdings within three months starting from September 16 [1] - Yuan Qirong intends to increase his holdings by 3 to 6 million yuan, Yuan Peng by 500,000 to 1 million yuan, and Wu Changhao by 250,000 to 500,000 yuan [1] - As of the report date, the three individuals have cumulatively increased their holdings by 678,700 shares, accounting for 0.080% of the total share capital, with a total investment amount of 3.5061 million yuan [1] - Any further increases in holdings will be disclosed in accordance with regulations [1]

Group 1 - The company China Heartland Fertilizer (01866) announced a share buyback plan [1] - The total amount allocated for the buyback is HKD 5.4681 million [1] - The company plans to repurchase 763,000 shares at a price range of HKD 7.09 to HKD 7.22 per share [1]

Core Viewpoint - China Heartlink Fertilizer (01866) announced a share buyback plan, indicating confidence in its stock value and future prospects [1] Group 1: Buyback Details - The company plans to repurchase 763,000 shares at a total cost of HKD 5.4681 million [1] - The buyback price range is set between HKD 7.09 and HKD 7.22 per share [1]

Report Overview - The report is a futures research report on urea by Guantong Futures, released on November 4, 2025 [1] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The improvement in the demand side supports the futures price, and the current futures price is still at a discount to the spot price. Seasonal storage enterprises should pay attention to the futures hedging opportunities [1] Summary by Directory Market Analysis - Urea futures opened higher and fluctuated strongly on the day. Both the futures and spot prices rebounded slightly, and market transactions improved slightly. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1,500 - 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5] - Urea production continues to rise, with the daily output exceeding 190,000 tons. There is no large - scale gas and production restriction yet, and high - level daily production is expected in the near future [1] - Due to the strong demand for peak - winter energy, coal prices are expected to rise, and the cost of coal - water slurry process provides support for urea prices [1] - The demand for autumn fertilizers is ending, and other demands are mainly for fertilizer storage. The price of compound fertilizer for winter storage is still in the negotiation stage. After the phosphate fertilizer meeting, the procurement is expected to start [1] - The operating load and inventory of compound fertilizer factories have both increased. The operating rate will gradually rise, and the finished product inventory will enter an accumulation trend [1] - Due to the improvement in weather and the end of agricultural demand, the downstream's enthusiasm for purchasing has increased. Coupled with fertilizer storage demand, the urea inventory has decreased this period [1] - India issued a long - term contract tender for 2.5 million tons in 2026 on November 3, 2025, an increase of 1 million tons compared to 2025 [1] Futures and Spot Market Futures - The main urea contract 2601 opened at 1,624 yuan/ton, closed at 1,630 yuan/ton, up 0.8%. The trading volume was 272,271 lots (+2,518 lots) [2] - Among the top 20 positions of the main contract, long positions increased by 4,948 lots, and short positions increased by 1,723 lots. Dongzheng Futures had a net long position of +3,341 lots, Fangzheng Mid - term had a net long position of - 302 lots, Minmetals Futures had a net short position of - 1,054 lots, and Zheshang Futures had a net short position of +997 lots [2] - On November 4, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 3,900, a net increase of 2,445 compared to the previous trading day [2][3] Spot - The spot price rebounded slightly, and market transactions improved slightly. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei is in the range of 1,500 - 1,550 yuan/ton [1][5] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotation rose, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared to the previous trading day, with the basis of the January contract at 160 yuan/ton (+3 yuan/ton) [8] Supply Data - On November 4, 2025, the national daily urea output was 199,600 tons, an increase of 14,000 tons compared to the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.34% [10]

Core Insights - The project is a green fertilizer and geothermal power station with an annual production capacity of 480,000 tons, marking the first green fertilizer production initiative by a Chinese company in Kenya [1] Investment Overview - The total investment for the project is approximately $800 million, which will produce green ammonia, urea, and calcium ammonium nitrate [1] Strategic Importance - The project aims to utilize Kenya's abundant geothermal energy to produce fertilizers, addressing the long-standing issues of fertilizer supply instability and price volatility faced by farmers, thereby ensuring national food security and saving foreign exchange [1][1] - The project aligns with Kenya's national development strategy and is considered a crucial part of the country's transformation process [1] Company Perspective - The chairman of Kaishan Holding Group emphasized that the project will contribute to solving Africa's food security challenges by ensuring a stable supply of fertilizers [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Urea spot prices decreased yesterday, and low - price transactions improved. Short - term fluctuations are expected. In the short term, autumn fertilizer production for agriculture is ongoing in some areas, and the overall operating rate has increased with the recovery of equipment. The production of autumn fertilizers for compound fertilizers is nearing completion, and the inventory of compound fertilizers for winter wheat is mainly being cleared. With the improvement of weather, the sentiment of product sales has improved. The operation of melamine has increased slightly, with rigid demand for procurement. In the long - term, due to the release of new production capacity, the supply and demand of urea will remain relatively loose. Gas - fired equipment maintenance in the fourth quarter is expected to start gradually in December. The factory inventory decreased last week, and the highest inventory is still in Inner Mongolia. Attention should be paid to the operating rate of compound fertilizers in the Northeast, the raw material procurement rhythm, and the national light - storage rhythm. Urea is still affected by export sentiment, and the export policy may change. [2] - Strategies: For single - side trading, expect range - bound fluctuations; for inter - period trading, adopt a wait - and - see approach; for cross - variety trading, there is no specific strategy. [3] 3. Summary by Directory I. Urea Basis Structure - The report provides information on the market prices of small - sized urea in Shandong and Henan, as well as the basis of the main continuous contracts in Shandong and Henan, and the price of the urea main continuous contract and relevant spreads. [1][6][7] II. Urea Production - The report shows the weekly production of urea and the loss of urea plant maintenance. [17][22] III. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - It includes the production cost, spot production profit, and the operating rates of coal - based and gas - based urea production. [25][26][29] IV. Urea Foreign Market Prices and Export Profits - The report presents the FOB prices of small - sized urea in the Baltic Sea, the CFR prices of large - sized urea in Southeast Asia, the FOB prices of small - sized and large - sized urea in China, and the export profit and on - paper export profit of urea. [31][33][37] V. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - It shows the operating rates of compound fertilizers and melamine, as well as the number of days of pending orders. [46][47][48] VI. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - The report includes the upstream factory inventory, port inventory, raw material inventory days of downstream urea manufacturers in Hebei, futures warehouse receipts, and the trading volume and open interest of the main contract. [51][54][55] Market Data Summary - **Price and Basis**: On November 3, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,623 yuan/ton (- 2). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1,560 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1,560 yuan/ton (- 30), and in Jiangsu was 1,560 yuan/ton (- 20). The price of small - sized anthracite was 750 yuan/ton (+ 0). The basis in Shandong was - 63 yuan/ton (- 28), in Henan was - 63 yuan/ton (- 18), and in Jiangsu was - 63 yuan/ton (- 18). The urea production profit was 30 yuan/ton (- 30), and the export profit was 904 yuan/ton (+ 32). [1] - **Supply Side**: As of November 3, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 80.32% (0.08%). The total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.5543 million tons (- 75,900 tons), and the port sample inventory was 110,000 tons (- 100,000 tons). [1] - **Demand Side**: As of November 3, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 31.04% (+ 3.33%), the capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.98% (+ 1.68%), and the number of days of advance orders for urea enterprises was 7.53 days (+ 0.12). [1]

Group 1 - The report predicts that Brent crude oil prices will average $68 per barrel in 2025 and may drop to $60 in 2026, which would be cheaper than five years ago [1][3] - Global oil inventories are expected to be 65% higher in 2025 compared to the peak in 2020, leading to stagnant oil demand due to the rise of electric and hybrid vehicles [3] - A decrease in oil prices is expected to ease inflationary pressures, with food prices projected to drop by 6.1% in 2025, benefiting consumers in developing countries [3] Group 2 - Fertilizer prices are projected to surge by 21% in 2025, increasing agricultural costs and squeezing farmers' profits [3][5] - Precious metals are expected to perform well, with gold prices projected to rise by 42% in 2025 and an additional 5% in 2026, while silver is expected to increase by 34% [3][5] - The World Bank advises countries to invest in technology and improve market transparency to withstand price fluctuations, indicating a need for proactive economic strategies [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - Although the current demand side is weak, there are still expectations for the future market. Factors such as off - season storage and compound fertilizer winter storage will affect urea prices. Currently, the futures price is in a correction phase, and it is expected to mainly fluctuate at a low level and difficult to return to the previous low [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Market Dynamics - In the urea spot market, during the end - stage of autumn fertilizers, downstream buyers mainly replenish inventory at low prices, with strong wait - and - see sentiment and low acceptance of high prices. Since the weekend, urea quotes have been on a downward trend [1][3] Futures Dynamics - Last week, the urea futures market showed a decline. As of November 3, the main January contract of urea closed at 1,623 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18 yuan/ton compared to the settlement price on October 27. The weekly trading volume was 1,223.75 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 255.05 million tons; the open interest was 685.03 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 71.40 million tons. The futures price decline was less than that of the spot price, and the basis strengthened. As of November 3, the 01 - contract basis was - 63 yuan/ton, a weekly change of - 13 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan/ton, a weekly change of - 5 yuan/ton [5] Urea Supply Side - Last week, urea weekly output increased. From October 23 to 29, the weekly output was 1.3153 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 37,400 tons, or 2.93%. The average daily output was 187,900 tons. Coal - based weekly output was 1.0371 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.71%; gas - based weekly output was 278,200 tons, a week - on - week increase of 7.75%. The next cycle is expected to see an increase in output. On November 3, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 198,200 tons, an increase of 7,800 tons from the previous day, with an operating rate of 83.75%. In the raw material market, coal price increase slowed down last week, but it is expected to rise due to upcoming heating season demand. LNG prices rose by 7.67% week - on - week, synthetic ammonia price center shifted up, and the spread between synthetic ammonia and urea weakened by 26 yuan/ton week - on - week. Methanol price was stable, and the spread between methanol and urea weakened by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week [10][12][13] Urea Demand Side - Last week, the compound fertilizer price remained flat. As of October 31, the 45% sulfur - based compound fertilizer was quoted at 2,900 yuan/ton. The compound fertilizer market is in the co - existence stage of autumn fertilizer end and winter storage, with slow overall fertilizer preparation rhythm. The operating load and inventory of compound fertilizer factories increased. From October 25 to 31, the compound fertilizer operating rate was 31.04%, an increase of 3.33 percentage points from the previous week. The average weekly capacity utilization rate of melamine was 49.98%, an increase of 1.68 percentage points from the previous period. As of October 31, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.5543 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 4.66%, and the port sample inventory was 110,000 tons, a decrease of 100,000 tons from the previous week [15][16][18] International Market - International urea prices rose last week. European demand was strong, and the final tender volume of the Indian tender was 431,000 tons, lower than the procurement target, which may lead to a new round of Indian tenders. In September 2025, China's urea export volume was about 1.37 million tons, and from January to September 2025, the total export volume was about 2.81 million tons. As of October 31, small - particle Chinese FOB price was $377.5/ton, up $2.5/ton week - on - week; large - particle Chinese FOB price remained flat at $392.5/ton [21][22][23]

Core Insights - The company reported a significant increase in revenue and net profit for Q3 2025, with revenue reaching 3.867 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 55.76%, and net profit of 1.363 billion yuan, up 163.01% [1] - The price of potassium chloride has slightly increased, contributing to the company's stable profit growth [2] - The company is advancing its second and third million-ton projects, which are expected to enhance production capacity and reduce costs once operational [2] Financial Performance - For Q3 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.345 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 71.37% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.71% [1] - The net profit for Q3 2025 was 508 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 104.69% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 7.99% [1] - The production and sales of qualified potassium chloride products for the first three quarters of 2025 were 1.4986 million tons and 1.5243 million tons, respectively, representing year-on-year increases of 13.21% and 22.79% [1] Pricing and Market Conditions - The average price of 60% white potassium in Lianyungang, Jiangsu, was 3160.37 yuan per ton in Q3 2025, showing a year-on-year increase of 32.68% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 8.09% [2] - The company's sales gross margin and net margin for Q3 2025 were 61.55% and 37.81%, respectively, with year-on-year increases of 12.29 and 7.14 percentage points [1] Project Development - The company is making progress on its second and third million-ton potassium projects, with key infrastructure already completed [2] - The expansion of the company's non-potassium resources, such as the bromine project, is expected to enhance overall resource utilization and economic benefits [2] Future Outlook - The company anticipates significant earnings elasticity from the release of incremental production capacity, with net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 projected at 1.910 billion, 2.709 billion, and 3.449 billion yuan, respectively [3] - The diluted EPS for the same period is expected to be 2.07, 2.93, and 3.73 yuan per share, with corresponding PE ratios of 21.36, 15.06, and 11.83 times [3]