Group 1: Report Overview - The report is titled "High - price Resistance, Urea Weakly Pulls Back" and is from the Chemical Research Group of Galaxy Futures Research Institute, written by Zhang Mengchao in December 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Last week's view was that the Indian tender stimulated the rebound of the ex - factory price, while this week's view is that downstream resistance to high prices leads to a weak pull - back of urea. The market sentiment has cooled, and the ex - factory quotes of urea spot in mainstream areas are weakly stable with weak transactions. In the short term, urea remains firm, but in the long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals are still relatively loose, and the price increase is expected to slow down. The trading strategy is to go short unilaterally without chasing the short, and to wait and see for arbitrage and over - the - counter trading [3] Group 4: Core Data Changes Supply - In the 50th week of 2025 (20251211 - 1217), the capacity utilization rate of coal - based urea in China was 89.03%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.58%; the capacity utilization rate of gas - based urea was 52.12%, a week - on - week decrease of 3.11%. The capacity utilization rate of urea in Shandong was 71.71%, a week - on - week decrease of 9.57% [4] Demand - In the 51st week of 2025 (20251212 - 1218), the weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 58.55%, a decrease of 3.31 percentage points from last week. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer was 39.37%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.25 percentage points. The urea demand of Shandong Linyi compound fertilizer sample production enterprises was 1580 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons or 15.96%. The arrival volume of urea in Northeast China was 8.2 tons, a decrease of 1.8 tons from last week. As of December 17, 2025, the pre - order days of Chinese urea enterprises were 6.24 days, a decrease of 0.7 days or 10.09% from the previous period [4] Inventory - On December 17, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 117.97 tons, a decrease of 5.45 tons or 4.42% from last week. As of December 18, 2025 (the 51st week), the sample inventory of Chinese urea ports was 13.8 tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.5 tons or 12.20% [4] Valuation - The price of Jincheng anthracite lump coal was weak, and the decline of Yulin pulverized coal widened. The spot price of urea rebounded, and the production profit of urea expanded. The fixed - bed production broke even, the profit of coal - water slurry production was 100 yuan/ton, and the production profit of entrained - flow bed was 330 yuan/ton. The futures price rebounded, the basis was around - 30 yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 41 yuan/ton [4] Group 5: Other Data in the Report - The report also includes data tracking on mainstream manufacturers' ex - factory prices, basis, regional spreads, warehouse receipts and spreads, futures spreads between urea and methanol, raw coal prices, production profit, urea/liquid ammonia and synthetic ammonia spreads, urea operating rate, urea production, urea pre - sales, urea inventory, other inventory supply and demand, ratio of urea to other nitrogen fertilizers, compound fertilizer, melamine, urea export, and furniture, etc., but the specific data content is not detailed in the provided text [7][14][21]

今日盘面高开低走，日内回调。现货价格继续上涨，但高端成交有限，预 计周末价格维稳。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1640-1700 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，虽位于气头装置停产期 间，但日产暂无大幅度下滑，依然在 19 万吨以上运行，本期复合肥工厂开工环 比下行，主要系部分地区环保检查导致开工负荷下行，另一方面，复合肥价格 增高后下游发运能力变差，工厂主动降低负荷，东北工厂依旧保持冬储生产节 奏，近期雾霾天气影响，上下游装置开工均受到一定的影响，备货能力下降， 库存继续去化，但主要集中在东北及西北地区，主交割区库存小幅增加。印标 刺激动能不足，目前呈现供需均环比走弱的迹象，今日行情有回调，但下游韧 性仍在，窄幅震荡为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1705 元/吨开盘, 高开低走，日内回调，最 终收于 1697 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅-0.41%，持仓量 163856 手（+1329 手）。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-670 手，空头+104 手。其中， 中泰期货净多单+424 手、中原期货净多单+227 手；国泰君安净空单-136 ...

Core Viewpoint - The EU's sanctions on Russian fertilizers, intended to target Russia, have inadvertently increased production costs for European farmers, leading to a significant economic burden on the agricultural sector [1][3][12]. Group 1: Impact on European Farmers - European farmers are facing skyrocketing production costs due to rising fertilizer prices, with urea prices increasing by 26.5% from May to July 2023, reaching $496 per ton [3]. - Farmers in Greece and France report dramatic increases in operational costs, with electricity bills soaring from €250-300 to nearly €1000, and nitrogen fertilizer prices rising from over €200 to €1000 per ton [5][12]. - Many farmers are delaying fertilizer purchases due to high costs and declining wheat prices, which have fallen to a five-year low [5][15]. Group 2: Russian Fertilizer Exports - Despite sanctions, Russian fertilizer exports to Europe have increased, with urea exports rising by 48% compared to the pre-war average [3][7]. - Russia's fertilizer production capacity is significantly higher than domestic demand, allowing for continued exports even amidst sanctions [7][8]. Group 3: EU's Dependency and Market Dynamics - The EU relies on Russia for approximately 25% of its fertilizer imports, creating a complex dependency that undermines the effectiveness of sanctions [7][10]. - In anticipation of the 2025 import tariffs, EU countries have increased their fertilizer imports from Russia, indicating skepticism about the sanctions' impact [10]. Group 4: Energy Costs and Production Challenges - The surge in natural gas prices, a key input for nitrogen fertilizer production, has led to a significant reduction in Europe's fertilizer production capacity, with major companies like BASF cutting ammonia production [12][13]. - The intertwined issues of energy costs and fertilizer supply are exacerbating the global food security crisis, with warnings of a potential 40% reduction in global food production if fertilizer trade issues are not resolved [13][15]. Group 5: Global Food Security Concerns - The dual impact of the fertilizer crisis and disrupted grain supplies from Russia and Ukraine poses a significant threat to global food security [15]. - The UN Secretary-General has called for the facilitation of Russian fertilizer exports to alleviate the humanitarian crisis, highlighting the urgent need for a resolution [15].

相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国化肥行业市场研究分析及前景战略研判报告》 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 近一年中国矿物肥料及化肥出口情况统计图 数据来源：中国海关，智研咨询整理 根据中国海关数据显示：2025年10月中国矿物肥料及化肥进口数量为136万吨，同比增长24.1%，进口 金额为5.09亿美元，同比增长49.8%，2025年10月中国矿物肥料及化肥出口数量为505万吨，同比增长 71.2%，出口金额为16.61亿美元，同比增长101.5%。 近一年中国矿物肥料及化肥进口情况统计图 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-12-19 环保问题部分上游减产 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-12-18，尿素主力收盘1708元/吨（+62）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1680 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1710元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1700元/吨（+20）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差：2 元/吨（-42）；河南基差：-28元/吨（-52）；江苏基差：-8元/吨（-42）；尿素生产利润180元/吨（+20），出口利润849 元/吨（+1）。 供应端：截至2025-12-18，企业产能利用率80.69%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为117.97 万吨（-5.45），港口样本 库存量为13.80 万吨（+1.50）。 需求端：截至2025-12-18，复合肥产能利用率39.37%（-1.25%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为58.55%（-3.31%）；尿素企 印度NFL发布新一轮尿素进口招标，意向采购150万吨（西海岸80万吨东海岸70万吨）。2026年1月2日截标，有效 期至1月16日，最晚船期2月20日。尿素现货低价成交好转，市场交投氛围转强。供应端四季度气头检修12月逐渐 开 ...

分红方面，红四方A股上市后累计派现3000.00万元。 机构持仓方面，截止2025年9月30日，红四方十大流通股东中，南方中证1000ETF（512100）位居第一 大流通股东，持股71.12万股，相比上期减少1.34万股。圆信永丰医药健康A（006274）位居第三大流通 股东，持股45.00万股，为新进股东。华夏中证1000ETF（159845）位居第四大流通股东，持股42.41万 股，相比上期增加1500.00股。圆信永丰聚优A（010469）位居第五大流通股东，持股40.01万股，相比 上期减少4.03万股。广发中证1000ETF（560010）位居第七大流通股东，持股32.54万股，相比上期减少 1.59万股。富国中证农业主题ETF（159825）位居第八大流通股东，持股28.75万股，为新进股东。 融资方面，红四方当日融资买入545.73万元。当前融资余额1.78亿元，占流通市值的9.36%，融资余额 超过近一年90%分位水平，处于高位。 融券方面，红四方12月18日融券偿还3600.00股，融券卖出700.00股，按当日收盘价计算，卖出金额2.04 万元；融券余量7100.00股，融券余额20.7 ...

Core Viewpoint - The slow-release compound fertilizer industry is experiencing significant growth driven by government policies promoting efficient and environmentally friendly fertilizers, with a projected market size of 312.7 billion yuan in China by 2024, and a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 5% expected for production by 2025 [1][10]. Group 1: Industry Overview - Slow-release compound fertilizers utilize physical, chemical, or biological technologies to precisely control nutrient release, matching crop needs and improving nutrient utilization rates by 30%-50% [1][2]. - The industry is transitioning from economic crops to field crops, with the market for slow-release fertilizers expected to expand significantly due to their comprehensive advantages [1][10]. - The Chinese fertilizer market is projected to reach 312.7 billion yuan in 2024, with compound fertilizers accounting for nearly 50% of the application volume, solidifying their role as a market core [1][10]. Group 2: Policy Environment - The Chinese government has implemented multiple policies to encourage the development of efficient and environmentally friendly fertilizers, positioning slow-release compound fertilizers as a key component in promoting agricultural green development [1][6]. - Key policy documents include the "Action Plan for Reducing Chemical Fertilizer Use by 2025" and the "Guidelines for Promoting Agricultural Modernization," which collectively support the growth of the slow-release fertilizer sector [1][6]. Group 3: Industry Chain - The industry chain consists of upstream suppliers of nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium fertilizers, and coating materials, with midstream production focused on slow-release fertilizer manufacturers utilizing various technologies [1][8]. - The downstream application primarily serves agriculture, with nearly half of the demand coming from economic crops, while non-agricultural sectors like landscaping are also emerging [1][8]. Group 4: Competitive Landscape - The industry is characterized by a competitive landscape dominated by leading companies such as Kingenta, Stanley, and Ba Tian, which leverage technology and scale to establish market barriers [1][11]. - These leading firms are innovating in areas such as biodegradable coating technology and specialized fertilizers tailored to crop growth stages, enhancing their competitive edge [1][11]. Group 5: Future Trends - The slow-release compound fertilizer industry is expected to evolve towards precision technology, market structure optimization, and global collaboration, focusing on biodegradable materials and smart technology integration [1][12]. - The dual drive of policy and market demand will continue to shape the industry, leading to increased concentration and a shift towards specialized and functional products [1][14]. - Companies are likely to expand their applications beyond traditional agriculture into areas like ecological restoration, enhancing growth opportunities [1][15].

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing price stabilization due to a combination of supply-side adjustments and steady agricultural demand, despite previous pressures from high domestic supply and fluctuating export volumes [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 18, urea futures main contract prices increased by 1.67% to 1708 CNY/ton, with low-end product ex-factory prices rising by 10-20 CNY/ton to 1610-1670 CNY/ton [1]. - The CFR price for small granular urea in China was reported at 387.5 USD/ton, a decrease of 4 USD/ton from the previous week [3]. - Urea prices are expected to remain within the range of 1500-2000 CNY/ton for most of 2025, with a central price around 1750 CNY/ton [4]. Group 2: Supply Dynamics - National urea production from January to November 2025 reached 65.09 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with November production hitting 6.01 million tons [2]. - The operating rate for coal-based urea production was 89.6%, up by 2.9 percentage points month-on-month, while the natural gas-based urea operating rate was 55.2%, down by 9.9 percentage points [2]. - New production capacities are expected to increase total urea capacity by 5.6% by 2025, with significant contributions from several companies in Gansu [2]. Group 3: Inventory Levels - Urea production companies have seen a slight reduction in inventory over six consecutive weeks, with total inventory dropping to 1.1797 million tons, a decrease of 54,500 tons from the previous period [3]. - Port inventories have shown a slight increase, indicating a mixed inventory trend across different storage locations [3]. Group 4: Agricultural Demand - Agricultural demand for urea is gradually increasing, supported by stable supply and price stabilization efforts [4]. - The operating rate for compound fertilizers was reported at 40.6%, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase but a year-on-year decrease of 2.9 percentage points [4]. - The winter season's natural gas-based urea production facility maintenance is expected to lead to a decline in operating rates, with companies focusing on essential purchases [4].

Core Viewpoint - The meeting emphasizes that ensuring the supply and price stability of fertilizers is a top priority, with industry enterprises required to enhance their political awareness and fulfill their responsibilities to safeguard national food security before the spring plowing season [2][3]. Group 1: Meeting Context - The meeting was held under the guidance of the National Development and Reform Commission, organized by the China Sulfuric Acid Industry Association and the China Phosphate and Compound Fertilizer Industry Association [1][2]. - Rising prices of sulfur and sulfuric acid have led to an increase in phosphate fertilizer prices, posing a potential threat to national food security [1][2]. Group 2: Key Requirements - The first requirement is to control sulfuric acid exports to prioritize domestic supply, with exporters urged to reduce export volumes and ensure that export prices do not fall below domestic prices [1][2]. - The second requirement is to prevent price increases of sulfuric acid, with all smelting acid production enterprises prohibited from raising prices arbitrarily based on the reference price from December 11 [1][2]. - The third requirement mandates that upstream and downstream enterprises strictly adhere to long-term supply agreements and not act untrustworthily for profit [1][2]. Group 3: Role of Associations - The two associations will act as a bridge to facilitate cooperation, including accurately identifying enterprise needs and forming targeted cooperation suggestions [3]. - They will establish a long-term platform for communication and project cooperation [3]. - The associations will actively communicate industry demands to regulatory authorities to seek policy support and promote deeper cooperation [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the first half of 2026, the central price of urea may rise. After the peak agricultural demand season, the central price is expected to gradually decline in the second half of the year, with a volatile pattern throughout the year. The market may mainly trade on the expectations and discrepancies of urea's peak agricultural demand, export, and storage drives. Traders are advised to focus on band opportunities. The export - related policy adjustment in 2026 remains a key factor in adjusting the domestic fundamentals. The expected operating range of urea prices in 2026 is 1,550 - 1,950 yuan/ton. Strategies suggest focusing on the 5 - 9 positive spread at low prices, and the 9 - 1 and 1 - 5 reverse spreads at high prices [1][86]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 2025 H2 Urea Trend Review - **Q3**: With sufficient production profit, the overall operating rate and output of the urea industry remained high. Agricultural demand weakened, but new export quotas and the "anti - involution" macro - logic supported the price, resulting in wide - range price fluctuations [5]. - **Q4**: The strong expectations for September were falsified. Supply remained high, and export and domestic demand could not match the supply pressure, leading to a downward price trend. There was a phased rebound in November due to mid - stream reserve replenishment and increased export quotas [9]. 3.2 Demand Side: Urea Demand in 2026 is Expected to Increase - **Agricultural End**: The growth of urea agricultural demand in 2026 may continue, but the growth rate is expected to decline slightly. The demand increment is mainly concentrated from February to May, and corn is the main source of actual demand growth [13][15][17]. - **Industrial End**: A cautious and pessimistic attitude is taken towards the domestic industrial demand for urea in 2026. The demand from melamine, urea - formaldehyde resin, and thermal power denitrification is expected to have no significant increase [13]. - **Export End**: Urea exports in 2026 may continue to grow, mainly concentrated in the third and fourth quarters [14][48]. 3.3 Supply Side: Urea Supply in 2026 is Expected to Increase - **Output**: The urea industry is expected to add 6.51 million tons of new production capacity in 2026, with an annual capacity growth rate of 7.9%. The theoretical capacity will increase from 82.07 million tons to 88.58 million tons, and the output is expected to increase [51][53]. - **Inventory**: In 2026, the upstream enterprise inventory and mid - stream social inventory of urea are expected to show a pattern of destocking in the first half of the year and stockpiling in the second half, with a slightly higher annual average inventory center [51]. - **Profit**: The production profit of urea in 2026 may fluctuate widely. The profit may rebound in the first half depending on the intensity of agricultural demand, and the profit center may decline in the second half, mainly depending on export policies [51].