智利国家铜业公司：暂未收到地震造成矿场损毁或人员受伤的报告。 ...

智通财经6月7日电，智利国家铜业公司称暂未收到地震造成矿场损毁或人员受伤的报告。 ...

行业 铜期货日报 日期 2025 年 6 月 6 日 有色金属研究团队 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 研究员：余菲菲 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 研究员：彭婧霖 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、 行情回顾与操作建议 图1：沪铜走势及盘面价差 图2：伦铜走势及价差 该矿区第一季度产铜 770 万磅，占公司总产量的 7.2%；同时暂停 Flin Flon 和 Snow Lake 地区的勘探活动。公司认为两个地区的基础设施受损风险较低， 该公司称，将持续监控局势，一旦条件允许，确保安全恢复全面运营。 沪铜窄幅震荡，总持仓下降 4040 手至 55.2 万手，盘面价差结构继续缩窄，06-07 缩窄至 100,07-08 缩窄至 130，现货升水也跌至 90，06 合约交割临近以及需求不 佳令期现价差收窄，不过 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: Short put @ 76,000 yuan/ton [6] Core Viewpoints - The current copper concentrate processing fee remains low, and negotiations between domestic smelters and overseas mines are ongoing. With an accident at the Kamoa Copper Mine this month, it's unlikely that the processing fee will rise significantly immediately. On the demand side, although current data is relatively favorable, there are concerns about whether demand can be maintained in the second half of the year. Overall, given the relatively stable outlook for the power sector, the probability of a significant weakening in demand is low. Therefore, it's recommended to mainly adopt a strategy of buying on dips for copper, with a buying range of 76,000 - 76,500 yuan/ton [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On June 4, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 77,910 yuan/ton and closed at 78,200 yuan/ton, up 0.71% from the previous trading day's close. In the night session, it opened at 78,050 yuan/ton and closed at 78,140 yuan/ton, down 0.08% from the afternoon close [1]. Spot Situation - Brand spreads continued to widen. Premium copper like Jinchuan and Guixi was in short supply, with morning premiums of 200 - 250 yuan/ton. Xiangguang, Lufang, JCC, and Polish large - plate copper had premiums of 180 - 200 yuan/ton and were hard to find. Imported and domestic medium - grade copper initially had premiums of 70 - 100 yuan/ton, but as market transactions weakened, the premium dropped to 30 - 50 yuan/ton. With the narrowing of the monthly spread, premiums are expected to decline further [2]. Important Information Summary - **Macro and Geopolitical**: In May, the ADP employment number increased by 37,000, far lower than the expected 110,000. The US May ISM non - manufacturing index dropped to 49.9, contracting for the first time in nearly a year. Trump called on the Fed to cut interest rates and advocated canceling the debt ceiling. His tax bill will increase the US deficit by $2.4 trillion in 10 years [3]. - **Mine End**: After the suspension of underground mining at the Kakula Mine on May 20, 2025, the company plans to restart the western area's underground mining in late June, depending on the progress of pumping. An evaluation result and restart plan for the western and eastern areas will be announced next week [3]. - **Smelting and Imports**: The spot trading volume of electrolytic copper was 25,800 tons, a decrease of 2,400 tons (8.54% month - on - month) from the previous trading day. Transactions were mainly for low - priced goods [4]. - **Consumption**: In 2025, the planned investment in the domestic power grid is 650 billion yuan, with 140.8 billion yuan completed in the first four months, a 14.6% year - on - year increase. The real estate industry is in a slump, with investment, new construction, and completion areas decreasing. The automotive industry is divided, with traditional vehicle production down 4.6% and new energy vehicle production up 48%. The home appliance industry had good performance in 2024 but has high export dependence. The electronics field may be a new highlight, with AI driving potential growth in integrated circuit demand. Overall, annual copper terminal demand need not be overly pessimistic [4]. - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 4,600 tons to 141,350 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 529 tons to 31,933 tons. On June 3, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 153,000 tons, a change of 14,300 tons from the previous week [5]. Strategy - For copper, it's recommended to be cautiously bullish, with a buying range of 76,000 - 76,500 yuan/ton. Arbitrage is on hold, and the option strategy is short put @ 76,000 yuan/ton [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, copper prices fluctuated within a range. The resumption of Trump's tariff ban and Powell's expression of the Fed's independent monetary - policy - making stance after the first meeting with Trump dampened the expectation of easing this year. The rebound of the US dollar index limited the upward movement of copper prices. Meanwhile, the shutdown of the underground operation in the Kakula section of the Kamoa copper mine and the record - low mid - year long - term TC quote of Antofagasta to CSPT provided strong support for copper prices from the supply side [2][8]. - Globally, the trade pattern still faces significant uncertainty risks. There are differences between the Fed and Trump in monetary - policy stances. Attention should be paid to the evolution of trade policies, their impact on the global supply chain, and the risk of stagflation in the US economy. Fundamentally, overseas mine - end disturbances are frequent, domestic refined copper remains in a tight balance, and social inventories are oscillating at a low level, providing solid support for copper prices. In the short term, copper prices are expected to maintain a range - bound oscillation, and attention should be paid to the pressure level of the previous LME copper price at $9,600 per ton [3][10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Price Changes**: From May 23rd to May 30th, LME copper decreased from $9,614/ton to $9,497/ton, a decline of $117 or 1.22%; COMEX copper dropped from 486.5 cents/pound to 470.2 cents/pound, a decrease of 16.3 cents or 3.35%; SHFE copper fell from 78,270 yuan/ton to 77,600 yuan/ton, a decline of 670 yuan or 0.86%; International copper rose from 68,700 yuan/ton to 68,880 yuan/ton, an increase of 180 yuan or 0.26%. The Shanghai - London ratio increased from 8.14 to 8.17, the LME spot premium increased from $31.14/ton to $50.08/ton, a rise of 60.82%, and the Shanghai spot premium increased from 165 yuan/ton to 170 yuan/ton [4]. - **Inventory Changes**: As of May 30th, the total inventory of LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area decreased to 487,852 tons, a decline of 6.04% compared to May 23rd. Among them, LME inventory decreased by 30,925 tons to 148,450 tons, a decline of 17.24%; COMEX inventory increased by 10,965 short tons to 180,629 short tons, a rise of 6.46%; SHFE inventory increased by 7,120 tons to 105,773 tons, a rise of 7.22%; Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased by 18,500 tons to 53,000 tons, a decline of 25.87% [7]. 3.2 Market Analysis and Outlook - **Price Fluctuation Reasons**: The resumption of Trump's tariff ban and Powell's stance on independent monetary - policy - making restricted the upward movement of copper prices. The shutdown of the underground operation in the Kakula section of the Kamoa copper mine and the record - low TC quote provided support from the supply side. Overseas mine - end disturbances intensified, COMEX inventory exceeded LME inventory after three years, the Yangshan copper warrant premium was high, social inventories were at a low level, and the near - month B structure of the futures market widened slightly [2][8]. - **Inventory Situation**: As of May 30th, the total global inventory continued to decline. LME copper inventory decreased significantly, the LME 0 - 3B structure widened, and the proportion of cancelled warrants continued to rise to 51.5%. SHFE inventory rebounded slightly from a low level, Shanghai bonded area inventory decreased, the Yangshan copper bill of lading premium remained above $90, and COMEX inventory exceeded LME inventory for the first time in three years. The rise of the Shanghai - London ratio was mainly due to the rebound of the US dollar index [8]. - **Macro - situation**: The Fed's latest meeting minutes showed that the US economy continued to expand steadily, unemployment was low, inflation was generally controllable but rising, and trade policies had a large impact on the economic outlook. Powell expressed the Fed's independent stance, while Trump thought Powell's non - interest - rate - cut decision was wrong. The EU should be vigilant against potential economic downturn risks. In China, industrial enterprise profits from January to April increased by 1.4% year - on - year, showing a positive trend [9]. - **Supply - demand Situation**: The spot TC remained below - $40/ton, and Antofagasta's mid - year long - term TC quote to CSPT was a record - low - $15/ton, increasing concerns about raw - material supply shortages. Domestic refined copper was in a tight balance. On the demand side, power - grid investment projects were being tendered, copper - cable enterprises' weekly operating rate was about 80%, and orders for refined - copper rod enterprises were abundant. Although there was an expected significant decline in photovoltaic installation in May, emerging markets such as data centers, artificial intelligence, and new - energy vehicles brought strong growth expectations. Domestic social inventories remained around 140,000 tons, and the near - month B structure rebounded slightly [10]. 3.3 Industry News - **Supply - demand Forecast**: In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus of 17,000 tons, narrowing from 180,000 tons in February. Overseas investment banks predicted a possible shortage in the global refined copper market in the second half of the year, and the risk of a "copper shortage" was increasing. Chile raised the global average copper price forecast for 2025 to $4.3 per pound [11]. - **Mine - end Incidents**: The underground operation of the Kakula mine in the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine was suspended due to increased water inflow. The mine was formulating a drainage plan, and the surface infrastructure was not affected. The Freeport Indonesia copper smelter in East Java resumed operation ahead of schedule and was expected to start producing cathode copper in the fourth week of June and reach full - capacity production in December [12][13]. - **Processing - fee and Market Transaction**: The processing fee for 8mm T1 cable rods in East China last week was in the range of 450 - 650 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 30 - 50 yuan/ton compared to the previous week. The trading activity in the East China refined - copper rod market increased, while in South China, trading was mostly postponed to after the holiday. It was expected that the operating rate of domestic refined - copper rod enterprises would remain high in early June [14]. 3.4 Relevant Charts The report provides 18 charts, including the price trends of SHFE copper and LME copper, inventory changes in LME, COMEX, SHFE, and Shanghai bonded area, copper premium trends, copper import profit - loss trends, copper concentrate spot TC, and the net - long - position ratio of non - commercial traders in COMEX copper and the net - position changes of investment funds in LME copper, etc [15][22][36].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The reinstatement of Trump's tariff policy exposes the hidden concerns of the US economic governance coordination, and is not good news for the US stock, bond, and foreign exchange assets [5]. - Glass is currently weak in the short - term, and the key lies in the weak demand and continuous pressure of warehouse receipt pricing. Future improvement depends on the recovery of glass demand [6][7]. - Fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil are supported by the peak demand season. High - sulfur fuel oil is expected to remain strong in the short - term, while low - sulfur fuel oil may continue to be weaker than high - sulfur fuel oil [8]. - The shipment of asphalt is slowing down, and it is weak in the near - end. The main contradiction lies in the demand, especially in the South due to the approaching rainy season [9][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Metals 3.1.1 Gold and Silver - Gold is in a state of oscillating decline, and silver follows the downward trend. The trend intensities of both are 0 [14][18][22]. 3.1.2 Copper - The decrease in copper inventory supports its price, and the trend intensity is 0. In March 2025, the global refined copper market had a supply surplus [24][26]. 3.1.3 Aluminum and Alumina - Aluminum is in range - bound oscillation, and alumina is significantly supported by costs. The trend intensities of both are 0 [27][29]. 3.1.4 Zinc - Zinc faces pressure above, and the trend intensity is 0 [30][31]. 3.1.5 Lead - Lead is in range - bound oscillation, and the trend intensity is 0 [33][34]. 3.1.6 Tin - Tin breaks below the oscillation range, and the trend intensity is - 1 [36][39]. 3.1.7 Nickel and Stainless Steel - Nickel is supported by short - term costs, but weak expectations limit its elasticity. Stainless steel has an increasing marginal reduction in production due to negative feedback and is difficult to fall deeply. The trend intensities of both are 0 [40][41][46]. 3.1.8 Carbonate Lithium - The de - stocking speed of carbonate lithium is slow, and its trend may remain weak. The trend intensity is - 1 [48][50]. 3.2 Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon hits a new low on the disk, and polysilicon has amplified fluctuations. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [14][51][53]. 3.3 Ferrous Metals 3.3.1 Iron Ore - The downstream demand for iron ore has reached a phased peak, and it is in a weak oscillation. The trend intensity is - 1 [54]. 3.3.2 Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are in a low - level oscillation with negative feedback expectations leading. The trend intensities of both are 0 [57][58][60]. 3.3.3 Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese are in a weak oscillation. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [62][65]. 3.3.4 Coke and Coking Coal - Coke has completed the second round of price cuts and is in bottom - bound oscillation. Coking coal is also in bottom - bound oscillation. The trend intensities of both are - 1 [66][68]. 3.3.5 Thermal Coal - The inventory of thermal coal mines is increasing, and it is in a weak oscillation. The trend intensity is 0 [69][71]. 3.4 Others 3.4.1 Logs - Logs are in repeated oscillations [72].

Group 1 - Cochilco raised its average copper price forecast for 2025 and 2026 to $4.30 per pound, up from the previous estimate of $4.25 per pound made in February [1] - The organization expressed cautious optimism regarding copper price prospects, acknowledging tighter global supply conditions than previously expected and strong demand fundamentals [1] - The recent agreement between the US and China to reduce high tariffs for at least 90 days has significantly alleviated trade barriers, improving global trade confidence [1] Group 2 - Codelco and Antofagasta Minerals, the largest copper producers, reported increased production in the first quarter, with Codelco's output rising by 5.2% in April [1] - Despite the increase in domestic production, global supply growth is expected to be much lower than previously anticipated, with a revised forecast of 1.3% growth this year, down from 4.7% [1] - Cochilco predicts a 3% increase in Chile's copper production this year and a continued 3% increase in 2026, reaching 5.84 million tons [2]

金十期货5月28日讯，据外媒报道，智利矿业部长Aurora Williams表示，智利国家铜业委员会 （Cochilco）将2025年铜价预估上调至每磅4.30美元，因称在中美暂时达成关税协议后，全球前景改 善。Cochilco还将2026年铜均价预估上调至每磅4.30美元。2月报告中对两年的均价预估都为4.25美元。 另外，Cochilco预测今年智利铜产量将增加3%，2026年将继续增加3%，届时将触及584万吨。产量指导 较Cochilco的2月预测下滑，2月预测2025年产量增速为4.6%，2026年增速为3.6%。 智利Cochilco上调铜价预估 ...

Core Viewpoint - Zijin Mining Group plans to spin off its overseas gold mining assets into a separate entity, Zijin Gold International, for listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, aiming to enhance its international market presence and capitalize on the rising gold prices [1][2]. Group 1: Spin-off Details - The spin-off will involve eight world-class gold mines located in South America, Central Asia, Africa, and Oceania, which will be integrated into Zijin Gold International [1][2]. - The total resource amount of the spun-off assets is 1,799.79 tons, with a total reserve of 696.83 tons, and an expected production of 46.22 tons in 2024 [2]. Group 2: Financial Performance - In Q1 2025, the company reported a revenue of 78.928 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.55%, and a net profit of approximately 10.167 billion yuan, up 62.39% [1][4]. - The operating cash flow for the same period was 12.53 billion yuan, reflecting a 53.33% increase year-on-year [1][5]. Group 3: Production Growth - The company plans to expand its gold production capacity to 85 tons by 2025, representing a 16% increase, and aims for a further increase to 100-110 tons by 2028 [1][2]. - In Q1 2025, gold production increased by 13.45%, while copper production rose by 9.49% compared to the previous year [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper investment rating: Neutral; Arbitrage: Suspended; Option strategy: short put @ 74,000 yuan/ton [6][7] Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Copper prices are expected to be in a volatile pattern, with an operating range of approximately 75,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton. Due to high copper prices and month - to - month spreads, downstream procurement is cautious, and inventory may still increase slightly. With the release of some delivery goods this week, it is difficult to maintain high premiums [6][7] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Market News and Important Data 1.1 Futures Quotes - On May 22, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,010 yuan/ton and closed at 77,920 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.23% from the previous trading day's close. The night - session contract opened at 77,730 yuan/ton and closed at 77,820 yuan/ton, a 0.12% decrease from the afternoon close [1] 1.2 Spot Situation - On May 22, SMM's 1 electrolytic copper spot was at a premium of 110 - 160 yuan/ton to the current 2506 contract, with an average premium of 135 yuan/ton, a decrease of 140 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Low - priced goods had good trading volume. Currently, low - priced goods have been mostly purchased, and warehouse receipts have significantly decreased, but warehouse inventory has not decreased as expected. The premium is expected to have limited upward movement [2] 1.3 Important Information Summaries - **Macro and Geopolitical**: The Trump tax reform bill passed the House of Representatives and is to be reviewed by the Senate. The US Senate voted to terminate California's ban on the sale of fuel - powered vehicles. Fed Governor Waller said that if tariffs decrease, the Fed may cut interest rates in the second half of 2025. Iran vowed to respond "devastatingly" to any Israeli aggression [3] - **Domestic**: The central bank will conduct 500 billion yuan of 1 - year MLF operations on May 23 [3] - **Mine End**: NGEx Minerals announced a new discovery in the Lunahuasi copper - gold project in Argentina, with high - grade copper - gold porphyry systems. Solaris Resources and Royal Gold reached a 200 million - dollar financing agreement for the Warintza copper - gold project in Ecuador [4] - **Smelting and Import**: In March 2025, the global refined copper production was 2.5135 million tons, consumption was 2.493 million tons, with a surplus of 20,500 tons. From January to March, the production was 7.2832 million tons, consumption was 7.0125 million tons, with a surplus of 270,800 tons [5] - **Consumption**: Last week, copper prices fluctuated narrowly, and downstream consumption had limited improvement. Downstream enterprises mainly made just - in - time purchases at low prices [5] - **Inventory and Warehouse Receipts**: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 1,925 tons to 166,525 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 9,464 tons to 31,754 tons. On May 19, the domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory was 1.399 million tons, an increase of 7,000 tons from the previous week [5] 2. Tables and Figures - The report provides 10 figures and 1 table, including TC prices, SMM1 copper premium quotes, price differences between refined and scrap copper, copper import profits and losses, and various inventory data [8] 3. Spot and Warehouse Receipt Data Table - The table shows data on copper prices, premiums, inventory, warehouse receipts, arbitrage, and import profitability for different time points (today, yesterday, last week, and one month ago) [29][30]