外卖市场或即时零售市场格局尚未重塑，短期内锻造消费者心智的补贴大战还会继续，但平台也应该尽 早考虑取消补贴、竞争常态化后的路如何走。 7月19日是7月5日起的第三个即时零售"超级星期六"，也是监管最新约谈之后的第一个周六大战。与上 一周相比，三家补贴力度均有所降低，但烈度不减。其中，阿里在下午和晚上发力，对商家的补贴高于 另两家；美团保持常规补贴，无重大举措；京东则规避了高额补贴，还取消了超时免单政策。 美团模式VS阿里模式 过去一周，关于这场外卖大战另一个引人关注的焦点是，美团核心本地商业CEO王莆中接受媒体专访。 作为此次即时零售大战的防御方，美团被迫反击是为了保住此前的市场份额。此番美团补贴成本始终低 于竞争对手，也是其盈利的关键。王莆中在采访中坦言，外卖是"精妙利薄"的生意，需要在平台、商 家、骑手、消费者四者之间保持微妙平衡。王莆中明确表示，美团是被动卷入，其言语间无不透露 着"纵有杀敌一千的实力，也无法接受自损八百的代价"的态度，并认为这是一场泡沫之战，应早日停 止。 毫无疑问，美团希望按照自己的节奏，根据自己的战略部署，继续深化以往的发展模式，即通过夯实基 础设施带动消费端，从外卖业最终杀入传统 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that the current "burning money" war in the food delivery market is not worthwhile, as excessive subsidies have led to four negative effects: weakening offline restaurant traffic, compressing overall industry profits, burdening small restaurants, and exacerbating waste issues [1] - UBS reports that the overall scale and profit margin of the food delivery market are limited, with a total profit of 30 billion yuan last year, ranking at the bottom of the internet industry in terms of profit margin [3] - The competition in the food delivery sector is seen as a "coward's game," where the first party to concede will suffer losses on prior investments, and this battle is expected to continue at least until the Double Eleven shopping festival [4] Group 2 - UBS suggests that leading internet companies should redirect their resources towards markets with greater growth potential, such as international markets or AI, rather than depleting capital in the instant retail sector [4] - The report indicates that while instant retail may double to 1.5 trillion yuan in three years, its market size will only account for 10% of the entire e-commerce market, with an estimated actual profit of around 30 billion yuan based on a 2.5% operating profit margin [3] - Comparatively, major US tech giants are heavily investing in AI, with Microsoft planning to invest 80-90 billion USD (approximately 600 billion yuan) by 2025, and the total capital expenditure for AI among the four giants reaching an astonishing 320 billion USD, a 39% increase from the previous year [4]

Key Insights - The report focuses on the sportswear industry, particularly analyzing the product cycles of major brands like Nike, Adidas, and Asics, highlighting the significant performance divergence among these brands post-pandemic [7][11] - The sportswear market is projected to reach approximately $400 billion in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 3.8%, indicating a stable growth trend despite varying brand performances [7] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of product cycles in driving brand performance, suggesting that investment strategies should focus on identifying key marketing events that signal new product cycles [11] Industry and Company Analysis Nike - Nike's stock price experienced a significant increase from 2019 to 2021 due to steady performance driven by technological innovation and popular products, but faced a downturn in 2022-2023 due to supply chain disruptions and inventory issues [8] - The brand's over-reliance on classic models and slow commercialization of new technologies has raised concerns about its future performance, with a notable decline in Google search interest indicating potential challenges ahead [8][11] - Nike is expected to revitalize its brand through enhanced sports marketing and new product launches, showing early signs of recovery [8] Adidas - Adidas has successfully navigated challenges post-pandemic, with a strategic shift in product offerings leading to a significant stock price recovery, particularly through the introduction of retro styles and localized strategies [9] - The brand's marketing expenditure is planned to remain at 12%, focusing on optimizing regional advertising efficiency [9] - The successful transition from Yeezy to other product lines has been pivotal in driving growth, with a notable increase in consumer interest preceding stock price recovery [9] Asics - Asics has seen a remarkable stock price increase, driven by strong revenue growth and improved profit margins, with expectations of doubling revenue from 2019 to 2025 [10] - The brand's focus on professional running shoes and the establishment of a running ecosystem have contributed to its profitability, alongside successful product launches that resonate with current trends [10] - Asics has maintained a lower marketing spend compared to its competitors while effectively leveraging sponsorships and collaborations to enhance brand visibility [10] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to monitor the product cycles of these sportswear brands closely, particularly looking for signs of new product introductions and marketing strategies that could drive future performance [11] - The report suggests a favorable outlook for domestic brands like Anta Sports and Li Ning, which are positioned to capitalize on market trends and consumer preferences [12] - The analysis highlights the potential of brands like Xtep International and the positive impact of celebrity endorsements on brand visibility and sales [12]

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.6%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.8%, the STAR 50 also went up by 0.8%, the CSI 1000 gained 0.4%, the ChiNext Index increased by 0.6%, and the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.5% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on that day were coal (+6.2%), building materials (+4.5%), construction decoration (+3.4%), steel (+2.6%), and non-ferrous metals (+2.0%). The worst-performing sectors included banking (-1.0%), computers (-0.7%), telecommunications (-0.4%), electronics (-0.2%), and textiles and apparel (-0.2%) [3][4] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 1,893 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 2.72 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Industry Insights Alcohol Industry - The report analyzes the current adjustment period in the alcohol industry, comparing it with the previous adjustment period to summarize a counter-cyclical investment strategy [5] - Short-term impacts on consumption scenarios are more severe, while medium to long-term focus should be on the bottoming out of cycles and strategic choices of liquor companies across four dimensions [5] - Key investment opportunities are identified from now until the Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day, with recommendations for leading liquor companies such as Kweichow Moutai, Shanxi Fenjiu, and Luzhou Laojiao based on their financial performance and dividend yields [5] Social Services Industry - The report highlights ongoing competition in the local and e-commerce sectors, particularly in instant retail, with a focus on the acceleration of this market segment [6] - The report expresses optimism about the growth of instant retail, noting that Meituan has a significant advantage and is likely to maintain its leading position [6] - Investment opportunities are seen in the increasing penetration rates of instant retail and the rapid growth of multi-platform instant retail formats, with Meituan leading and Alibaba potentially emerging as a strong competitor [6]

Summary of Instant Retail Industry Conference Call Industry Overview - The instant retail industry is experiencing a shift in competitive dynamics, with the market leader changing from JD.com to Ele.me between May and July 2025 [1] - Regulatory measures are being implemented to stabilize the industry and promote fair competition, aiming to protect merchant profits and prevent excessive price wars [1][5] Key Points and Arguments - **Market Competition Shift**: The competitive landscape has evolved, with Ele.me now taking the lead over JD.com and Meituan, reflecting rapid market changes [3] - **Anti-Competition Policies**: New regulations are aimed at curbing low-price subsidies to maintain market order and ensure reasonable profits for merchants [1][4] - **External Effects of Instant Retail**: The growth of instant retail has stimulated consumer demand and increased employment for delivery riders, with daily orders rising from 100 million to over 200 million in two months [6] - **Investment in Business Environment**: Meituan has invested over 400 million yuan to open satellite stores, while Taobao Flash and JD.com are enhancing incentives for merchants and riders [7][8] - **Demand and Competition Outlook**: Despite a reduction in subsidy activities, strong demand is expected from July to September 2025, with competition tools becoming more diversified and refined [9] - **Order Structure Adjustment**: The industry is shifting from broad-based products to more elastic items and adjusting category structures, which will help platforms stabilize their businesses long-term [10] Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Subsidy Wars**: The recent subsidy wars have led to a significant increase in demand but have also pressured traditional dining establishments, as online orders surpass dine-in options [4][9] - **Challenges for New Entrants**: New high-growth platforms face challenges in supply-side capabilities and fulfillment to maintain their market positions [11] - **Future Market Predictions**: Various scenarios have been tested to predict future market dynamics and platform profitability, with further discussions encouraged with the investment team [12]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - **Industry**: Internet and E-commerce - **Key Trends**: The overall e-commerce market remains stable, with shelf e-commerce and live-streaming e-commerce continuing to grow. Instant retail is expected to reach a market size of 2-3 trillion yuan by 2030, posing a threat to traditional e-commerce players like JD and Alibaba [2][16]. Company-Specific Insights Meitu Company - **Performance**: Meitu's earnings forecast indicates a high profit outlook, particularly in the European market where its AI flash products topped the Italian charts. The software payment capability in Europe is significantly higher than in China, suggesting substantial overseas market potential [1][8]. - **Investment Strategy**: The focus should be on profitable companies like Meitu and Kuaishou, rather than those that have not yet shown successful products since the launch of GPT two years ago [4]. - **Profitability**: Meitu's financials show that many expenses are front-loaded, indicating a strategy of testing marketing ROI in various markets, which could lead to significant profit elasticity once successful [8]. Cloud Computing Sector - **Growth**: Domestic cloud computing maintained a high revenue growth rate in Q2, with Alibaba Cloud, Tencent Cloud, and Baidu Cloud growing approximately 20%, 16%, and 25% year-over-year, respectively [10]. - **Market Dynamics**: The demand for cloud services accelerated under the influence of AI, although competition among players has shifted. The impact of H20 supply disruptions is expected to ease in the second half of the year [5][10]. - **Future Outlook**: Despite a slowdown in training demand due to H20 disruptions, there is optimism for a recovery in order deliveries in the latter half of the year [10][12]. Instant Retail Competition - **Market Dynamics**: The instant retail market is highly competitive, with JD and Alibaba both heavily investing to maintain their market shares. Instant retail is projected to capture 20% of the e-commerce market by 2030, threatening JD's core business and Alibaba's market share [7][22]. - **Strategic Moves**: Alibaba's strategy involves significant subsidies and leveraging its traffic advantages through platforms like Taobao, while Meituan is also ramping up its subsidy efforts to compete effectively [18][19]. Tencent - **Performance**: Tencent's Q2 performance was stable, but there are concerns regarding its gaming business, particularly with the decline in revenue from DNF and the need for new game launches to sustain growth [23][24]. - **Advertising and Financial Services**: Despite macroeconomic pressures, Tencent's advertising business remains strong, with video accounts contributing to growth. Financial services are also showing signs of recovery, with expected revenue growth of over 10% in Q2 [25][26]. Baidu - **Earnings Outlook**: Baidu's core business is expected to see a low single-digit decline, primarily due to macroeconomic factors and the transition to generative AI in its search services. However, its cloud business is projected to grow by over 25% [33][34]. JD and Pinduoduo - **JD's Performance**: JD's Q2 results showed double-digit growth in key categories, benefiting from national subsidies. However, significant investments in new businesses like food delivery have impacted profit margins [37]. - **Pinduoduo's Challenges**: Pinduoduo is facing a decline in MAU in the U.S. and a decrease in transaction service revenue due to its shift from fully managed to semi-managed services [38]. Additional Insights - **AI Applications**: The rapid growth of small AI applications, such as Kuaishou's "Speak," indicates a strong potential in the AI sector, with significant revenue growth expected [9][32]. - **Market Sentiment**: The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, particularly regarding the competition in instant retail and the performance of major players like Meituan and Tencent [3][29]. This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call records, highlighting the performance and strategies of various companies within the internet and e-commerce sectors, as well as the broader market trends.

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intense competition in the food delivery market in China, particularly focusing on the aggressive subsidy strategies employed by major players like Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com, and the implications of these strategies on market dynamics and consumer behavior [2][3][6]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The food delivery market in China is experiencing a significant increase in order volume, with a record of 200 million orders on July 5, driven by substantial subsidies from major companies [2][3]. - Meituan, Alibaba, and JD.com are collectively burning through approximately 20 billion RMB monthly in subsidies, indicating a fierce battle for market share as user growth stagnates [2][3]. - The competition has led to a situation where consumers benefit from heavy discounts, but the long-term sustainability of such a model is questionable [2][3]. Group 2: Company Strategies - Alibaba's delayed entry into the food delivery battle is attributed to internal restructuring and the need to align its resources effectively before launching a competitive response [3][4][5]. - The timeline of Alibaba's strategic moves includes significant organizational changes and the announcement of a 50 billion RMB subsidy plan, indicating a coordinated effort to regain market presence [5][6]. - Meituan's response to the competition has been characterized by a focus on maintaining operational efficiency and leveraging its existing infrastructure to counter the aggressive tactics of its rivals [10][11]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - The article highlights the differences in strategic approaches between Meituan and its competitors, noting that Meituan is more cautious and strategic in its responses compared to the aggressive tactics of JD.com and Alibaba [10][11]. - The competitive landscape is further complicated by the entry of new players and the potential for existing platforms like Pinduoduo and Douyin to join the fray, indicating a rapidly evolving market [15][16]. - The profitability of the food delivery business remains a concern, as companies struggle to balance subsidies with sustainable business models, leading to volatility in stock prices across the sector [11][12].

Core Viewpoint - The competition in the retail market will return to efficiency comparisons across various segments, similar to e-commerce, where only players capable of driving efficiency transformations can disrupt market dynamics [1] Group 1: Market Overview - Instant retail is defined as online immediate ordering and offline immediate fulfillment, relying on local retail supply to meet local instant demand [1] - The demand for instant retail primarily stems from the shift of offline scenarios, with the market size expected to reach 780 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46% over the past five years [1] - The long-term market potential for instant retail is projected to exceed 3 trillion yuan, potentially leading to a slowdown or negative growth for some e-commerce platforms [1] Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Instant retail includes platform and self-operated models, with platform models accounting for 60%-70% of market share, where Meituan maintains a leading position [2] - The three key elements of instant retail are instant demand (users & traffic), instant delivery (fulfillment), and local supply [2] - The current competition focuses on user acquisition through subsidies and traffic advantages, but the long-term competition will shift towards the supply side [2] Group 3: Company Analysis - Meituan has significant advantages in organizational capability, user operation, supply chain coverage, and delivery efficiency, positioning it well for continued leadership in the instant retail market [1] - Alibaba has demonstrated stronger organizational capabilities in this round of competition, leveraging its financial and user traffic advantages, but has yet to implement disruptive strategies in food delivery and instant retail [1][2] - JD Group is still in the construction phase regarding fulfillment and supply, but long-term profitability is expected from instant retail, food delivery, and corresponding supply chain layouts [1] Group 4: Future Projections - Meituan's flash purchase gross transaction value (GTV) is expected to approach 1.1 trillion yuan by 2030, contributing 18.6 billion yuan in profit [3] - Alibaba's food delivery, instant retail, and e-commerce cross-selling are projected to generate nearly 1 trillion yuan in GMV, but with limited profit contribution [3] - JD's future food delivery, instant retail, and supply chain layouts are anticipated to achieve overall profitability [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in subsidies from food delivery platforms indicates a shift in the competitive landscape, influenced by regulatory actions and the need for rational competition among major players in the industry [1][2][3]. Group 1: Impact of Subsidy Cuts - Consumers have experienced a reduction in the benefits of food delivery subsidies, leading to a decrease in the excitement of "hunting for deals" [1]. - The intense competition among platforms has resulted in record-high order volumes, but has also caused some merchants to face declining profits and operational challenges [1][2]. - The shift in order distribution, with delivery orders increasing from 30%-40% to around 60%, has altered the dynamics between dine-in and delivery services [3]. Group 2: Merchant Perspectives - Restaurant owners express concerns over the pressure from platforms to participate in subsidy programs, which can lead to reduced profit margins and negative impacts on product pricing [2][3]. - The need for platforms to return pricing power to merchants is emphasized, as many businesses struggle to maintain profitability amidst aggressive discounting [2][5]. - The operational challenges faced by merchants, such as staffing and supply chain adjustments, highlight the strain that rapid order increases can place on businesses [6]. Group 3: Long-term Industry Implications - The substantial investment in subsidies by platforms, exceeding 100 billion, raises questions about the long-term benefits for the restaurant industry [3][7]. - The ongoing competition may lead to increased consolidation within the restaurant sector, with smaller businesses at greater risk of failure [7]. - Platforms are encouraged to adopt a more rational approach to competition, which aligns with their long-term interests and the need for a sustainable industry ecosystem [7][8]. Group 4: Future of Instant Retail - The future of instant retail hinges on the ability of platforms to integrate more product categories and enhance service efficiency, which will require significant improvements in supply chain and technology [8]. - The potential for growth in the instant retail market remains high, but the effectiveness of platforms in transitioning from aggressive competition to building a more digital and efficient ecosystem is yet to be seen [8].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform" [1] Core Insights - Instant retail is defined as a retail format that meets local immediate demand through online ordering and offline fulfillment, with a market size projected to reach 780 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 46% over the past five years [2][17] - The market is expected to exceed 3 trillion yuan by 2030, with a penetration rate in online retail increasing from 6% to 15.7% [35][38] - The competition in instant retail is primarily between platforms and self-operated models, with platforms holding a market share of 60%-70%, and Meituan leading the market [2][47] Summary by Sections 01 Instant Retail: Local Supply and Immediate Fulfillment - Instant retail is characterized by its ability to fulfill local demand quickly, leveraging local retail supply [6][8] - The development of instant retail has accelerated due to the rise of smartphones and location-based services, leading to various business models [8] 02 Competitive Landscape: Fulfillment as the Core Barrier - The competitive landscape is defined by short-term competition for user traffic and long-term competition for supply capabilities [2][3] - Fulfillment capability is identified as a long-term competitive barrier, with current competition focused on subsidies and user acquisition [2] 03 Analysis of Instant Retail Platforms - The analysis covers organizational efficiency, user growth driven by subsidies, supply capabilities, and fulfillment efficiency [2][3] - Meituan has a significant advantage in fulfillment due to its established delivery network and operational scale [2] 04 Profit Impact Assessment for Meituan, Alibaba, and JD - Projections indicate that Meituan's flash purchase gross transaction value (GTV) could reach approximately 1.1 trillion yuan by 2030, contributing 18.6 billion yuan in profit [3] - Alibaba's cross-selling in food delivery and instant retail is expected to generate close to 1 trillion yuan in GMV, but with limited profit contribution [3] 05 Investment Recommendations - The essence of retail competition is efficiency, with a focus on operational capabilities and supply chain management [3] - Meituan is expected to maintain its leading position in the instant retail market due to its organizational capabilities and user engagement strategies [3]