只有胤胜资产值得留意，其背后第一大股东是曾超懿。对比天山铝业年报，胤胜资产也是实际控制人关 联方，曾超懿正是天山铝业实际控制人之一。 天山铝业专注铝产业链，拥有自备电厂和铝土矿资源，产品为铝锭、高纯铝、电池铝箔等，目前市值达 717.8亿元。今年前三季度，公司营业收入为223.21亿元，净利润33.4亿元。 就在本月初，天山铝业发布公告称，曾超懿计划在2025年12月25日至2026年3月24日期间，通过集中竞 价交易方式减持不超过2294.93万股，占总股本的0.5%。若按公告当天天山铝业13.49元/股的收盘价测 算，约为3.11亿元。曾超懿减持原因为"自身资金需求"，股份来源均为公司2020年7月重组上市所获得 的股份。 市值不足百亿元的新金路（SZ000510，股价12.08元，市值78.34亿元）是近期川股中的牛股，10月底至 今，公司股价已翻倍。之所以被资本市场看好，是因为新金路拥有锡、钨矿资源。 12月29日晚间，新金路公告，拥有上述资源的主体子公司将引入战投。《每日经济新闻》记者发现，其 中一家战投背后股东是天山铝业实控人曾超懿。就在本月初，天山铝业发布公告称，曾超懿准备减持股 票，原因是资金 ...

滨州日报/滨州网讯 12月29日，全球首艘万吨级近海新能源散货船"魏桥绿动1"轮首航仪式在滨州市套尔 河港区无棣创业码头举行，这艘总长109.8米、集"绿色化、标准化、智能化、安全化"于一体的货轮投 入运营后，将主要用于烟台至滨州航线的铝矾土运输，通过新能源技术降低传统航运碳排放，助力绿色 航运发展。它的运营，不仅为我国近海航运业插上新能源翅膀，更以钢铁之躯镌刻出企业践行国家"双 碳"战略、推动产业链绿色转型的责任担当。 企业担当与国家战略同频共振 绿色，是魏桥创业集团高质量发展的鲜明底色。多年来，企业深植"绿水青山就是金山银山"理念，将绿 色低碳基因融入发展血脉，构建起绿色产业链、能源链、生态链与运输链协同发展的立体格局。企业从 生产线节能改造到供应链降碳升级，绿色理念贯穿全流程，收获了诸多绿色成果——电解铝和氧化铝先 后跻身国家能效"领跑者"行列，坐拥5家国家级绿色工厂、4家省级绿色工厂、2家省级绿色供应链管理 企业，近日更荣膺中国工业碳达峰"领跑者"企业称号，每一份荣誉都见证着其绿色坚守。 12月28日，全球首艘万吨级近海新能源散货船"魏桥绿动1"轮首靠岸在滨州市套尔河港区无棣创业码 头。 2020年国 ...

政治建设铸魂，强化理论武装。始终把学习贯彻习近平新时代中国特色社会主义思想作为首要政治任 务，组织开展"第一议题"学习研讨29次、党工委理论学习中心组学习13次，召开党的建设工作领导小组 会议2次，在深学细悟中坚定拥护"两个确立"、坚决做到"两个维护"。全面落实意识形态工作责任制， 开展分析研判会3次、舆情风险排查4次、专题研究部署会2次。 思想建设固本，夯实信仰根基。扎实开展深入贯彻中央八项规定精神学习教育，举办覆盖129个党支部 的专题读书班，区党工委、管委会班子成员带头深入分管领域讲授专题党课，以"头雁效应"激发"群雁 活力"，引导广大党员干部将学习成果转化为遵规守纪、砥砺党性、推动发展的思想自觉与行动自觉。 组织建设强基，激活队伍动能。织密组织网络，成立"港城社区""鲲鹏产业社区"，形成城市社区、农村 社区、产业社区"三驾马车"基层治理模式，推动8家非公企业单独建立党组织，新建小区党支部9个，实 现组织体系全域覆盖。深化"党建链动"行动，推动产业链资源整合，相关经验获《中国组织人事报》推 广。激活队伍力量，评选五星支部36个，选树"品质先锋"3人；动态调整村级后备6人，完成区镇培训全 覆盖。 作风建设 ...

特变电工：从新疆 全球，输变电龙头迈向能源产业链巨头 特变电工股份有限公司创始于1993 年，经过多年发展和扩张，公司主营业务从输变电变为输变电、新 能源、能源、新材料四大核心业务为主。从历史经营来看，随着公司不断发展已有业务和拓展新的业 务，公司经营规模过去持续扩大；而从近2-3 年看，公司经营出现一些波动，其中新能源产品及工程、 煤炭产品两大业务是主要原因，从2025H 看，新能源产品及工程、煤炭产品对利润的影响预计基本触 底。我们认为当前时点，公司输变电、新能源、能源、新材料四大核心业务均有望同步向上，输变电持 续受益电网建设和出口景气，新能源和能源有望受益硅料、煤炭价格变动；并且公司积极拓展能源一体 化业务，未来有望带来增量贡献。 输变电：产业龙头，特高压与海外驱动增长 投资建议 本轮光伏反内卷自上而下推动，政治高度显著高于第一轮，近期已取得初步效果，硅料成交价格明显上 涨。特变电工持有新特能源 65%左右股权，新特能源拥有30 万吨硅料产能，分布在低电价地区新疆、 内蒙，公司硅料生产成本处于行业第一梯队，随行业回暖具有较大弹性。 煤炭：疆内龙头，煤炭煤电煤化工一体成长可期 公司当前煤炭核定产能740 ...

同时，更低的年度铜精矿加工费/提炼费价格和长期合同精矿量可能意味着2026年精炼铜产量削减。这 些因素结合需求仍较为稳固，应支撑铜价在高位波动，有利于紫金矿业(02899)、洛阳钼业(03993)、五 矿资源(01208)以及江西铜业(00358)。 该行认为，氧化铝价格因供给增加而持续受压，目前建成产能达1.1亿吨，利用率84%，而中国需求基 本已达上限。该行认为新政策可能限制新增规划氧化铝产能，并预计产能整合将有利于行业龙头如中国 铝业(02600)和中国宏桥(01378)。然而，渠道中大量已批准产能仍可能在2026年对氧化铝价格构成压 力。 摩根士丹利发布研报称，国家发改委上周五(26日)发表以《大力推动传统产业优化提升》为题的文章， 提及强化氧化铝与铜冶炼产业的管理及优化布局，并鼓励氧化铝及铜冶炼大型骨干企业实施兼并重组。 ...

同时，更低的年度铜精矿加工费/提炼费价格和长期合同精矿量可能意味着2026年精炼铜产量削减。这 些因素结合需求仍较为稳固，应支撑铜价在高位波动，有利于紫金矿业(02899)、洛阳钼业(03993)、五 矿资源(01208)以及江西铜业(00358)。 智通财经APP获悉，摩根士丹利发布研报称，国家发改委上周五(26日)发表以《大力推动传统产业优化 提升》为题的文章，提及强化氧化铝与铜冶炼产业的管理及优化布局，并鼓励氧化铝及铜冶炼大型骨干 企业实施兼并重组。 该行认为，氧化铝价格因供给增加而持续受压，目前建成产能达1.1亿吨，利用率84%，而中国需求基 本已达上限。该行认为新政策可能限制新增规划氧化铝产能，并预计产能整合将有利于行业龙头如中国 铝业(02600)和中国宏桥(01378)。然而，渠道中大量已批准产能仍可能在2026年对氧化铝价格构成压 力。 ...

长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字[2014]1号 2025-12-29 【产业服务总部 | 有色金属团队】 研究员：汪国栋 执业编号：F03101701 投资咨询号：Z0021167 咨询电话：027-65777106 铝产业链周报 01 周度观点 资料来源：iFinD 长江期货有色产业服务中心 02 宏观经济指标 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2019/10/2 0 2020/10/2 0 2021/10/2 0 2022/10/2 0 2023/10/2 0 2024/10/2 0 2025/10/2 0 美国:国债收益率:10年-2年 日 % 美国国债收益率曲线:2年 日 % 美国国债收益率曲线:10年 日 % 80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115 120 2021/10/19 2022/10/19 2023/10/19 2024/10/19 2025/10/19 美国:美元指数 日 -2-1 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 2021/12/30 2022/12/30 2023/12/30 2024/12/30 美国:国债收益率:10年 美国:国债实际收益率:10 ...

沪铜狂飙掀起有色涨势热潮叠加美指下挫，隔周沪铝收涨0.6%，夜盘收报22520元/吨；宏观层面，市场 预计2026年美联储将降息两次，首次降息或于年中落地。美元指数周线下跌，进一步增强了以美元计价 的工业金属对海外买家的吸引力。美股市场在2025年持续走高，不断创下历史新高，投资者期待本周美 股能为这一强势年份完美收官。12月27日至28日，全国财政工作会议在北京召开，会议指出2026年将继 续实施更加积极的财政政策，向市场释放了利好信号。 基本面方面，海外铝供应存在扰动，而国内电解铝运行产能整体变化不大，供应压力有限。需求端，目 前已进入季节性消费淡季，受订单疲弱、环保管控以及铝价高企等因素影响，下游开工进一步下滑，铝 下游加工企业开工率持续走低。市场数据显示，上周国内铝下游加工龙头企业周度开工率环比下降0.6 个百分点至60.8%。近期下游畏高情绪浓厚，现货贴水幅度持续加深，叠加新疆发运情况好转，在途库 存上升，对铝价上行空间形成压制。 综合来看，沪铝供需驱动不足、库存虽升但仍处低位，且氧化铝价格走强为铝价提供了成本支撑，预计 今日现货铝价或上涨。 长江有色金属网ccmn.cn 电话：0592-56688 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is expected to maintain a volatile and upward - trending pattern, while in the long - term, it is in an upward channel. Alumina is still in a supply - surplus situation, and the recent price increase is mainly due to emotional stimulation. Cast aluminum alloy shows a pattern of strong cost support but slow - growing demand [1][9][17]. - The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas macro mainly focuses on the Fed's monetary policy, and the rise and fall of interest - rate cut expectations dominate the financial - attribute pricing of the non - ferrous sector. The domestic fundamentals of electrolytic aluminum are relatively stable, with external demand stronger than domestic demand [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - **Core Contradictions**: The core factors affecting aluminum prices are macro - policy expectations and fundamentals. Overseas, the focus is on the Fed's monetary policy, and the outcome of China - US tariff negotiations is in line with expectations. Domestically, the fundamentals are stable with external demand stronger than domestic demand. In the short - term, Shanghai Aluminum is affected by related varieties, and there is a short - term inventory accumulation. In the long - term, macro factors will drive the upward movement of aluminum prices, and the supply - demand balance of global electrolytic aluminum in 2026 will be tight or in short supply [1][7][9]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be high - level oscillation. For the monthly spread strategy, it is recommended to wait and see. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is too large, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage. The recent strategies include interval operations, selling options, etc. [10]. 3.1.2 Alumina - **Core Contradictions**: The supply of bauxite is sufficient, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile. Alumina still has a supply - surplus problem, but the market interprets the NDRC's news as a control on alumina growth, which is mainly an emotional stimulus. In the short - term, the impact on fundamentals is limited. In the long - term, the supply - surplus pattern is difficult to change, but the price decline rate will slow down [12][17][19]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be weakly running. The price range is 2750 - 3050. It is recommended to sell the Alumina 2601 Call Option at 2900. For the basis and monthly spread strategies, it is recommended to wait and see, and there is no recommended hedging and arbitrage strategy [27]. 3.1.3 Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Core Contradictions**: The core contradiction lies in the weak demand and high costs. The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the downstream is in a mild recovery with general peak - season performance and downward pressure. In the long - term, the cost support is strong, but the demand growth rate slows down [25][30]. - **Trading Strategy Recommendations**: The trend is expected to be oscillating and upward - trending. The price range is 19900 - 20800. When the spread between Shanghai Aluminum and aluminum alloy is greater than 500, one can go long on aluminum alloy and short on Shanghai Aluminum for arbitrage [31]. 3.1.4 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - Provide price - range forecasts for alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and aluminum alloy in the near future, as well as risk - management strategy recommendations, including inventory management and raw - material management strategies [32]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: On December 11, the social inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods increased by 44,000 tons to 741,500 tons compared with the previous week. The US GDP in the third quarter of this year increased by 4.3% year - on - year, higher than the second - quarter growth rate of 3.8% and the market expectation of 3.2% [33]. - **Negative Information**: No information provided. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Overseas, on December 23, 30,000 tons of alumina were traded at a price of $335/mt FOB Brazil for February shipment. Domestically, there were transactions in the north and south markets, with different prices and quantities [34][36]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Events to Watch - On December 31, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending December 27 will be released [37]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Fund Interpretation - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: Shanghai Aluminum was driven by related varieties and trended upward. The relationship between the main - contract position and price indicates that the market is mainly controlled by long - position forces. The positions of key seats and the total position show opposite trends, indicating that key seats take profits at high prices. The basis - monthly spread structure maintains a shallow C - shaped structure [38][41]. - **Alumina**: The fundamentals remained unchanged this week, but the price rebounded sharply on Friday due to the NDRC's news. Long - position investors entered the market, the position increased significantly, and the net short - position decreased. The term structure is stable, but there is an obvious spread between the 2602 and 2603 contracts [54][58]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It moved with Shanghai Aluminum this week, but the position of the main contract decreased, and the positions of important seats remained oscillating. The term structure is stable, maintaining a shallow C - shaped structure [62][65]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis - **Profit Tracking of the Industrial Chain's Upstream and Downstream**: The supply - surplus situation of alumina persists, the spot price continues to decline, and the profit is compressed. The profit of electrolytic aluminum remains at a high level [67]. - **Import - Export Profit Tracking**: The alumina import window remains open, while the import and export windows for electrolytic aluminum are closed, with only long - term Russian aluminum contracts flowing in, averaging about 200,000 tons per month [70][72]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction - **Supply - Demand Balance Deduction**: Provide quarterly balance sheets for electrolytic aluminum and monthly balance sheets for alumina, showing the supply - demand balance in different periods [74]. - **Supply - Side and Deduction**: The profit of electrolytic aluminum is high, and the domestic production capacity is approaching the ceiling, with little change in supply. Overseas, the supply increase is concentrated in Southeast Asia, mainly in 2026. Alumina prices are under pressure, and some high - cost enterprises may reduce production, which is expected to alleviate the surplus situation to some extent [75][76]. - **Demand - Side and Deduction**: The new - energy sector is the main driving force for the growth of China's electrolytic aluminum demand, but the growth rate is expected to slow down. The demand for aluminum in the construction sector is expected to decline negatively, and the overall consumption growth rate of electrolytic aluminum is expected to slow down but remain above 0.5% for a long time. Alumina demand is mainly for electrolytic - aluminum smelting, and the demand is estimated based on seasonality [78].

王蓉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 wangrong2@gtht.com 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03142619 wangzongyuan@gtht.com 所 铝、氧化铝、铸造铝合金基本面数据更新 | | | | | | | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约收盘价 | 22405 | 130 | 220 | 835 | 1800 | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约夜盘收盘价 | 22520 | ー | ー | ー | l | | | | | | | LME铝3M收盘价 | 2957 | 0 | 1 | 142 | 367 | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约成交量 | 353637 | 124288 | 128016 | 150656 | 202421 | | | | | | | 沪铝主力合约持仓量 | 299641 | 9167 | -15452 | -48192 | 9302 ...