Core Viewpoint - The recent escalation of tensions in the Middle East has led to supply disruption risks in the electrolytic aluminum industry, with potential significant impacts on aluminum prices and companies like China Hongqiao [1] Group 1: Market Reaction - China Hongqiao's stock rose over 4%, reaching HKD 40.14, with a trading volume of HKD 534 million [1] Group 2: Supply Disruption Risks - JPMorgan believes the market is underestimating the risk of supply interruptions in the aluminum sector, noting that the Middle East produces 6.8 million tons of aluminum annually, with a net export surplus of about 5 million tons, accounting for 7% of global aluminum production [1] - If there is a substantial disruption in aluminum supply from the Middle East, aluminum prices could surge to USD 4,000 per ton, making it the most asymmetric upward commodity among base metals [1] - Rising energy and shipping costs, which account for one-third of smelting costs, will further drive up aluminum prices [1] Group 3: Geopolitical Impact - The escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has heightened risk aversion among investors, leading to frequent supply disruptions [1] - Qatar Aluminum has halted production due to natural gas supply issues, while Bahrain Aluminum faces transportation disruptions due to regional conflicts [1] - Mozambique's aluminum plant has announced plans for maintenance shutdowns due to prior electricity contract issues [1] Group 4: Demand Recovery - The demand side is still in a recovery phase, with domestic social inventories continuing to accumulate [1] - If geopolitical conflicts persist, expectations for tightening global electrolytic aluminum supply are strong, indicating significant upward pressure on aluminum prices [1]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Aluminum Daily Report [1] - Date: March 12, 2026 [2] - Research Team: Non - ferrous Metals Research Team [3] - Researchers: Yu Feifei, Zhang Ping, Peng Jinglin [3][4] Group 2: Investment Rating - Not provided Group 3: Core View - The aluminum price has an independent trend due to the uncertainty in the Middle East situation and potential threats to the overseas aluminum supply chain. The price opened higher and closed higher on the 11th, returning above 25,000 yuan/ton, with total positions increasing by 26,000 to 688,000. High prices suppress consumption, and the procurement demand is weak. The domestic supply is stable, and the demand is warming up after the festival, but inventory accumulation continues. The current aluminum price is mainly affected by the Middle East geopolitical conflict, and a low - buying strategy is recommended before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [8] Group 4: Market Conditions and Operation Suggestions - **Price and Position**: The aluminum price opened higher and closed higher on the 11th, returning above 25,000 yuan/ton, and the total positions increased by 26,000 to 688,000 [8] - **Consumption**: High aluminum prices suppress consumption, with weak procurement demand. The East China discount is - 130, the Central Plains discount is - 270, and the South China discount is - 205 [8] - **Import and Export**: The Shanghai - London ratio is low, and the import loss is - 3,368 yuan/ton [8] - **Supply**: Domestic supply is stable. Newly - invested capacities in Indonesia and Angola are still ramping up. In the Middle East, Qatar Aluminum has stopped production, and Bahrain Aluminum has suspended supply [8] - **Demand and Inventory**: After the festival, demand is warming up, and the proportion of molten aluminum has increased significantly. However, inventory accumulation continues. Domestic social inventory has increased to 1.271 million tons, at a high level in the past three years, while the London inventory has decreased by more than 2,000 tons to 452,000 tons, highlighting the pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [8] - **Operation Suggestion**: Keep a low - buying strategy before the Strait of Hormuz is navigable [8] Group 5: Industry News - **Force Reduction by Rio Tinto**: Rio Tinto will cut the production of its Yarwun alumina refinery in Australia by 40% from October 2026 to extend its operation life to 2035. This will reduce the annual alumina production by about 1.2 million tons and affect about 180 jobs [9] - **Expansion by Nalco**: India's state - owned National Aluminium Company (Nalco) plans to start mining the Pottangi bauxite mine in Odisha in June 2026. It is expanding the fifth production line at its Damanjodi alumina refinery, increasing the annual capacity by 1 million tons to 3.275 million tons [10]

财联社倾力打造王牌栏目《风口研报》，替您"扒一扒"市场含金量超高的研报、调研信息。以机构视 角，追踪研报和调研纪要细节里的"超预期"、"拐点"、"事件催化"和"价值洼地"。 ①中东六国合计拥有705万吨电解铝产能，当前原料供应和产品运输受地缘冲突影响，分析师认为铝价存 在冲击30000元/吨的可能性；②核心化工品年初至今涨幅60%+，这家公司产能均位于国内具备显著优 势，海外供给收缩下市场份额有望持续扩大。 前言 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of alumina, electrolytic aluminum, and cast aluminum may all be in a stage of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices, while paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 25,215.00 yuan/ton, up 335.00 yuan; the closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 2,869.00 yuan/ton, up 30.00 yuan. The LME aluminum three - month quotation was 3,400.00 US dollars/ton, up 12.00 US dollars. The LME aluminum inventory was 452,375.00 tons, down 2250.00 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous A00 aluminum was 25,030.00 yuan/ton, up 560.00 yuan; the spot price of alumina was 2,630.00 yuan/ton, up 10.00 yuan. The average price of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 25,100.00 yuan/ton, up 300.00 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - Alumina production in the current month was 801.08 million tons, down 12.72 million tons; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 731.29 million tons, up 25.33 million tons. The import volume of aluminum scrap and waste in China was 194,102.07 tons, up 31,482.14 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The import volume of primary aluminum was 189,196.58 tons, up 43,086.86 tons; the export volume was 37,575.30 tons, down 15,472.39 tons. The production of aluminum products was 613.56 million tons, up 20.46 million tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream and Application - The production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 27.08 million tons, down 39.41 million tons; the export volume of non - wrought aluminum and aluminum products was 42.96 million tons, down 11.04 million tons. Automobile production was 3.4115 million vehicles, down 0.1075 million vehicles [2]. 3.6 Option Situation - The implied volatility of the at - the - money option of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 28%, down 0.0601%; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.83, down 0.0351 [2]. 3.7 Industry News - In the first two months of this year, China's total import and export value of goods trade was 7.73 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 18.3%. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology launched the industrial data foundation - building action [2]. 3.8 Alumina View Summary - The alumina main contract fluctuated strongly, with decreasing positions, spot discount, and weakening basis. The fundamentals are in a stage of increasing supply and demand. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices [2]. 3.9 Electrolytic Aluminum View Summary - The Shanghai Aluminum main contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing positions, spot discount, and strengthening basis. The fundamentals are in a situation of increasing supply and demand, and the aluminum ingot inventory accumulates seasonally. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices [2]. 3.10 Cast Aluminum Alloy View Summary - The cast aluminum main contract fluctuated strongly, with increasing positions, spot premium, and strengthening basis. The fundamentals may be in a stage of increasing supply and demand, and the downstream purchasing willingness drives the industrial inventory to decline. It is recommended to conduct short - term long - position trading at low prices [2].

Summary of the Conference Call for Innovation Industry Company Overview - Innovation Industry focuses on the upstream aluminum industry chain, primarily engaged in alumina refining and electrolytic aluminum smelting. By 2024, it ranks as the fourth largest electrolytic aluminum producer in North China and the twelfth in China. As of mid-2025, the company will have an electrolytic aluminum capacity of 788,100 tons, alumina capacity of 1.2 million tons, and a hydroxide capacity of 2.98 million tons. Additionally, a 2 million ton hydroxide roasting alumina project is under construction, which will increase total alumina capacity to approximately 3.2 million tons upon completion [3][4]. Key Points and Arguments Capacity Expansion - By mid-2025, the company will have 790,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and 1.2 million tons of alumina capacity. A 2 million ton alumina project is under construction, which will increase total alumina capacity to 3.2 million tons [2][3]. Cost Reduction in Domestic Operations - The company benefits from a 43% year-on-year decrease in CIF prices due to increased production of bauxite from Guinea. Additionally, the installation of 1,750 MW of wind and solar power is expected to save approximately 1 billion yuan in electricity costs annually, resulting in an excess profit of 3,800 yuan per ton [2][7]. Overseas Growth Potential - A 500,000 ton electrolytic aluminum project in Saudi Arabia is expected to ramp up production by 2027, utilizing local low-cost energy at 0.2 yuan per kWh, with a projected profit of about 10,000 yuan per ton, potentially contributing 25 billion yuan in valuation increment [2][4]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Global electrolytic aluminum inventory is at a low level, with supply growth limited to 1.5%-2% due to power and regulatory constraints. Demand in the power sector is expected to grow at an annual rate of 4%, driving aluminum prices into a dual upward channel of financial and energy attributes [2][5][6]. Market Expectations - The market has underestimated the speed of production cuts in overseas regions (e.g., Mozambique, Qatar) due to rising energy prices, as well as the delays in new capacities in India and Indonesia due to insufficient power support [2][9]. Profitability and Valuation - If aluminum prices remain at 25,000 yuan per ton in 2026, the net profit attributable to shareholders could reach around 6 billion yuan. With the commissioning of the Saudi project, the long-term reasonable valuation could exceed 80 billion yuan, indicating a potential doubling in three years [2][10][11]. Additional Important Insights Cost Control Advantages - The company has significant cost advantages, with cash costs projected to be in the top 50% of the global cost curve from 2024 to 2025. The reduction in bauxite prices and optimization of electricity costs are key paths for cost reduction [7][8]. Strategic Importance of the Saudi Project - The Saudi project, with a total investment of 1.8 billion USD, is strategically located near the Red Sea, facilitating the import of alumina and export to European and American markets. The project is expected to be a reliable growth engine for the company [8]. Market Concerns on Aluminum Price Sustainability - There are concerns regarding the sustainability of aluminum price increases, with the market potentially overestimating future production growth and underestimating the likelihood of production cuts in Western countries [9]. This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding Innovation Industry's operations, market dynamics, and future growth potential.

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Aluminium: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Neutral [9] - Aluminium alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The risk premium of aluminium prices has limited room to retrace. Although the US - Iran crisis has shown signs of easing and oil prices have fallen, the supply overseas remains tight, and the domestic downstream has resumed production. The overseas supply - demand gap is expected to widen, and there is still room for aluminium prices to rise. For alumina, the cost - push logic has changed, the overall domestic supply is in surplus, but there is short - term support for prices and long - term pressure [6][8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Aluminium Spot - East China A00 aluminium price is 24,470 yuan/ton, a change of - 730 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is - 120 yuan/ton, a change of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Central China A00 aluminium price is 24,340 yuan/ton, and the spot premium is - 250 yuan/ton, a change of 30 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Foshan A00 aluminium price is 24,420 yuan/ton, a change of - 720 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, and the spot premium is - 170 yuan/ton, a change of 20 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [1]. 3.2 Aluminium Futures - On March 10, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminium opened at 24,685 yuan/ton, closed at 24,880 yuan/ton, a change of - 330 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 24,945 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,450 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 425,557 lots, and the open interest was 206,507 lots [2]. 3.3 Aluminium Inventory - As of March 10, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminium ingots was 1.271 million tons, a change of 15,000 tons from the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 341,263 tons, a change of 5,435 tons from the previous trading day. The LME aluminium inventory was 452,375 tons, a change of - 2,250 tons from the previous trading day [2]. 3.4 Alumina Spot Price - On March 10, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,660 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,620 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,675 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,700 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,765 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 306 US dollars/ton [2]. 3.5 Alumina Futures - On March 10, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,893 yuan/ton, closed at 2,839 yuan/ton, a change of - 100 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of - 3.40%. The highest price was 2,904 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,791 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 620,429 lots, and the open interest was 292,736 lots [2]. 3.6 Aluminium Alloy Price - On March 10, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminium was 18,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminium was 18,900 yuan/ton, both with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 24,400 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3]. 3.7 Aluminium Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminium alloy was 62,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 83,600 tons [4]. 3.8 Aluminium Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,857 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 544 yuan/ton [5].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The ongoing geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are significantly impacting the aluminum supply chain, leading to potential price increases for aluminum and related materials [3][9] - The report highlights that the current aluminum prices are only reflecting the short-term impacts of supply disruptions, with potential for prices to rise to 30,000 CNY/ton if conflicts persist [8] - The report suggests monitoring companies such as Nanshan Aluminum, Shenhuo Co., Yun Aluminum, Tianshan Aluminum, Baitong Energy, and Huadong Cable for investment opportunities [8] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - The closing point for the industry is 9858.96, with a 52-week high of 11180.33 and a low of 4295.55 [1] Aluminum Supply Chain Impact - The Qatalum aluminum plant in Qatar, with a nominal annual capacity of 636,000 tons, has been forced to shut down due to natural gas supply interruptions, with a potential recovery time of 3-6 months [3][12] - The Alba aluminum plant in Bahrain, with an annual capacity of approximately 1.6 million tons, has also faced shipping disruptions due to the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, impacting its logistics [12][13] Alumina and Cost Dynamics - The Middle East has an alumina production capacity of 4.55 million tons per year, with a production of 4.492 million tons per year, but relies heavily on imports, making it vulnerable to supply chain disruptions [4][14] - The cost of electricity for aluminum production has risen significantly due to increased natural gas prices, with costs now estimated at 1470-1764 USD/ton compared to previous levels of 600-900 USD/ton [5][18] Inventory Trends - Global electrolytic aluminum inventories are at a three-year high, primarily due to domestic inventory accumulation, with a total increase of 416,900 tons since early February [6][19] - A shift to a destocking phase is anticipated starting in April, as production resumes and inventory accumulation slows [19]

格隆汇3月10日丨根据联交所最新权益披露资料显示，2026年3月6日，中国铝业(02600.HK)遭中信证券资产管理有限公司在场内以每股均价13.6635港元减持 1801.4万股，涉资约2.46亿港元。 减持后，中信证券资产管理有限公司最新持股数目为419,468,000股，持股比例由11.09%下降至10.64%。 | 股份代號: | 02600 | | --- | --- | | 上市法國名稱: | 中國鋁業股份有限公司 - H股 | | 日期 (日 / 月 / 年): | 10/02/2026 - 10/03/2026 | | 表格序號 | 大股東/董事/最高行政人員名 作出披露的 買入 / 賣出或涉及的 每股的平均價 | | | | 持有權益的股份數目 佔已發行的有關事件的日 相關法 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 股份數目 | 原因 | | | 請參閱上述*註 有投票權股期(日/月/ 份權益 | | | | | | | 份自分比 细 | | CS20260310E00067 | 中信证券资产管理有限公司 | 1201(L) | 18.014. ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the non-ferrous metals industry, particularly focusing on aluminum, lithium carbonate, nickel, and copper markets. Key Insights and Arguments Aluminum Market - Geopolitical conflicts have increased oil prices and inflation expectations, temporarily suppressing the financial attributes of non-ferrous metals, but the situation in the Strait of Hormuz is expected to shift towards a risk-averse logic, supporting precious metals [1] - Significant supply disruptions in the Middle East have occurred, with Qatar Aluminum's 636,000-ton capacity offline for 6-12 months and Bahrain Aluminum's 1.62 million-ton capacity facing shipment delays, collectively impacting about 3% of global supply [1][6] - The aluminum price has recently broken through due to these supply disruptions, with the Middle East's reliance on natural gas and logistical challenges driving prices upward [1][6] Lithium Carbonate Market - Lithium carbonate inventory has dropped below 100,000 tons for the first time, with accelerated depletion observed [1][3] - Supply growth from expected regions like Jiangxi and Africa has not met market expectations, leading to a tighter supply situation [3][4] - Demand for energy storage is expected to show resilience against high prices, with industry pricing anchored in the 150,000-180,000 RMB range [1][4] Nickel Market - There is a discrepancy between Indonesia's nickel quota and production estimates, with the quota set at 26-27 million tons but production expected to be around 20.9 million tons due to historical conversion rates [5] - Indonesia's policy aims to push nickel prices above cost support levels without triggering excessive production from neighboring countries, targeting a price range of $18,000-$20,000 per ton [5][6] Copper Market - Copper prices are under short-term pressure due to delayed interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a rebound in the dollar index [7] - Despite high inventory levels, historical data shows weak correlation between visible inventory and copper price trends, indicating that fundamental support remains strong [7] - The long-term outlook for copper prices remains bullish, driven by ongoing supply constraints and the Fed's easing cycle [7] Additional Important Points - The potential for economic recession due to rising oil prices and inflation could shift the narrative for non-ferrous metals from supply-driven to demand-driven [2] - The market is advised to monitor companies such as Huayou Cobalt, Zhongjin Lingnan, and Zijin Mining for investment opportunities in the lithium and nickel sectors [4][5][6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Aluminum: Neutral; Alumina: Neutral; Aluminum alloy: Neutral. Arbitrage: Neutral [9] 2. Core View of the Report - The price increase of alumina driven by cost cannot be supported by supply - demand fundamentals. The Middle East event has led to a clear reduction in the supply of electrolytic aluminum, and although the absolute price has reflected supply - side disturbances, the impact on consumption has not been fully factored in. In the long - term, the shutdown in Qatar has a substantial impact on the supply side, and the rising electricity price due to the overseas power gap makes the upward space of aluminum price still promising. The price increase of alumina is mainly due to cost factors, but the overall domestic supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, with long - term pressure [1][6][8] 3. Summary of Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Important Data 3.1.1 Aluminum Spot - The price of East China A00 aluminum is 25,200 yuan/ton, with a change of 750 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The spot premium of East China aluminum is - 130 yuan/ton, with a change of - 10 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Central China A00 aluminum is 25,050 yuan/ton, and the spot premium changes - 30 yuan/ton to - 280 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The price of Foshan A00 aluminum is 25,140 yuan/ton, with a change of 760 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day, and the aluminum spot premium changes - 5 yuan/ton to - 190 yuan/ton [1] 3.1.2 Aluminum Futures - On March 9, 2026, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 24,890 yuan/ton, closed at 24,950 yuan/ton, with a change of 395 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The highest price reached 25,860 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 24,750 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 792,881 lots, and the position was 219,433 lots [2] 3.1.3 Inventory - As of March 9, 2026, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 1.271 million tons, with a change of 15,000 tons compared to the previous period. The warehouse receipt inventory was 335,828 tons, with a change of 6,201 tons compared to the previous trading day. The LME aluminum inventory was 454,625 tons, with a change of - 2,250 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] 3.1.4 Alumina Spot Price - On March 9, 2026, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 2,655 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 2,615 yuan/ton, in Henan was 2,670 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 2,695 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 2,765 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 306 US dollars/ton [2] 3.1.5 Alumina Futures - On March 9, 2026, the main contract of alumina opened at 2,844 yuan/ton, closed at 2,905 yuan/ton, with a change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day's closing price, a change rate of 3.57%. The highest price reached 3,049 yuan/ton, and the lowest price was 2,830 yuan/ton. The trading volume throughout the trading day was 1,353,816 lots, and the position was 303,984 lots [2] 3.1.6 Aluminum Alloy Price - On March 9, 2026, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 18,600 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 19,000 yuan/ton, with a price change of - 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 24,600 yuan/ton, with a price change of 100 yuan/ton compared to the previous day [3] 3.1.7 Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 62,500 tons, and the in - factory inventory was 83,600 tons [4] 3.1.8 Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 23,857 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was 544 yuan/ton [5] 3.2 Market Analysis 3.2.1 Electrolytic Aluminum - The Middle East event continues, and the supply side has shown a clear reduction, with the LME 0 - 3 premium rising rapidly. The absolute price has reflected supply - side disturbances, but the impact on consumption has not been traded. If the Middle East crisis continues, rising energy costs will impact overseas consumption, and the rapidly rising aluminum price still exerts pressure on domestic price transmission. In the short - term, if the Middle East crisis eases, there may be a retracement of the previous risk premium. In the long - term, the shutdown in Qatar has a substantial impact on the supply side, and the rising electricity price trend due to the overseas power gap remains unchanged, so the upward space of aluminum price is still promising [6] 3.2.2 Alumina - In the spot market, 2,100 tons were traded at the ex - factory price of 2,810 yuan/ton in Guangxi. The price increase of alumina is mainly due to cost factors. On the one hand, the caustic soda price has continuously reached the daily limit; on the other hand, the freight of Australian alumina to China has reached 37 US dollars/ton, with a cumulative increase of 16 US dollars/ton, and the freight will also affect Guinean bauxite, with the sea freight quoted at 28 US dollars/ton. The overall domestic supply surplus pattern remains unchanged, and the social inventory is still rising. The pressure of expiring warehouse receipts in the recent three months is not large, and the inter - month spread is conducive to alleviating the release of warehouse receipt pressure. There are situations where alumina plants make spot purchases to supplement long - term supply due to production disturbances. In the short - term, the pressure on the domestic spot market is not large, but the surplus contradiction continues to accumulate and there is still long - term pressure [7][8]