Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, methanol futures declined and adjusted due to weak fundamentals. The methanol weighted price closed at 2,248 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, a 3.19% drop from the previous week. The methanol supply was sufficient while the demand was insufficient, and the fundamentals remained weak. The support mainly came from the macro - face and geopolitical tensions. Future methanol trends need to closely follow the guidance of the macro - face, geopolitics, and crude oil [4][6][7] - In the future, methanol may fluctuate strongly. It is advisable to consider selling put options or using a bull spread strategy [8] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Last week, affected by weak fundamentals, methanol futures declined. Spot prices in ports were weak, and inland prices continued to fall. The price range of Ordos North Line in the main production area was 1,785 - 1,798 yuan/ton, and the price range of Dongying in the downstream was 2,145 - 2,160 yuan/ton [10] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - **Production**: Last week, China's methanol production increased to 2,061,085 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 92.26%, a 1.15% increase from the previous week [11] - **Downstream Demand**: As of February 5, the olefin开工率 increased, the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate remained flat, the acetic acid capacity utilization rate decreased, the chloride capacity utilization rate increased, and the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate decreased [15][17] - **Inventory**: As of February 4, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises decreased by 55,800 tons to 368,300 tons, a 13.16% decrease. The order backlog increased by 21,400 tons to 287,100 tons, an 8.05% increase. The port sample inventory decreased by 61,100 tons to 1.411 million tons, a 4.15% decrease [20][22] - **Profit**: Last week, the raw material side was stable and slightly stronger, and methanol prices fluctuated. The theoretical profits of different process routes for methanol production showed different trends [26] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - **Supply**: This week, more methanol plants are expected to resume production than to undergo maintenance. The estimated methanol production is about 2.073 million tons, with a capacity utilization rate of about 92.79%, an increase from last week [27] - **Downstream Demand**: The olefin开工率 is expected to continue to rise; the dimethyl ether capacity utilization rate may decline; the acetic acid capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly; the formaldehyde capacity utilization rate may decline; the chloride capacity utilization rate may increase slightly [30][31] - **Inventory**: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to slightly decrease to 365,500 tons. The port methanol inventory is expected to accumulate, and the accumulation range depends on the unloading speed of foreign vessels and the change in提货量 [31]

市场氛围偏空，贵金属大跌，有色金属全线下挫，沪铝及铝合金日内震荡下跌，午后多合约封跌停板， 沪铝主力合约报收23035元/吨，铝合金主力合约报收21840元/吨。 宏观方面，上周五特朗普提名沃什出任美联储主席，市场视其为偏鹰派，美国PPI通胀数据意外抬头， 美股跌，美元创去年5月以来最大单日涨幅，前期涨幅巨大的贵金属断崖下跌，有色板块集体走弱。 供应端目前电解铝运行产能变化有限，后期有增产预期。进入季节性淡季后，需求表现趋弱，且春节临 近、铝价高企抑制下游拿货积极性，下游企业接货意愿低迷，行业开工率持续下滑。近期国内铝锭社库 持续累积。 对于当前走势，新湖期货表示，近期消费端总体趋弱，春节临近，终端厂商订单减少，铝加工企业开工 率下降，当前铝仍处于高位，节前备库需求低。供给端依旧以轻微增长为主，基本面走弱，库存攀升， 不过当前库存水平仍难形成明显压力。短期市场仍受宏观面影响为主，美联储下一任主席人选情况、伊 朗地缘等扰动下，铝价或反复波动。短线建议谨慎操作。中长期维持逢低做多思路。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, methanol futures showed a relatively strong performance, with the methanol weighted closing at 2322 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 1.04% from the previous week. The current supply - demand fundamentals of methanol remain weak, but it may be supported by the macro - level and geopolitical tensions. Future methanol trends need to closely follow the guidance of the macro - level, geopolitics, and crude oil. It is suggested to consider selling put options or using a bull spread strategy [6][9][10] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Methanol Trend Review - Futures: Last week, boosted by the relatively strong port methanol, methanol futures showed a relatively strong performance. The methanol weighted closed at 2322 yuan/ton on Friday afternoon, up 1.04% from the previous week. - Spot: Import apparent demand was weak last week. Port methanol inventory accumulated slightly at a high level, and the market tradable volume was high with an upper limit. Affected by the unstable international situation and positive macro - level, the market fluctuated and trended stronger. The price in Jiangsu ranged from 2240 - 2330 yuan/ton, and in Guangdong from 2220 - 2290 yuan/ton. Inland methanol prices continued to decline, with enterprises focusing on reducing inventory by lowering prices before the festival. The price in the Ordos northern line in the main production area ranged from 1785 - 1805 yuan/ton, and the receiving price in Dongying ranged from 2100 - 2130 yuan/ton [14] 2. Methanol Fundamental Analysis - Production: Last week (20260123 - 0129), China's methanol production was 2,037,735 tons, an increase of 28,820 tons from the previous week. The device capacity utilization rate was 91.21%, a month - on - month increase of 1.43% [15] - Downstream Demand: - Olefins: The average weekly operating rate of MTO devices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions decreased to 30.48%, a decrease of 13.90 percentage points from the previous week. - Dimethyl Ether: The capacity utilization rate was 5.92%, a month - on - month increase of 12.76%. - Glacial Acetic Acid: The overall capacity utilization rate increased. - Chlorides: The operating rate of methane chlorides was 76.04%, with an increase in overall production and capacity utilization rate. - Formaldehyde: The operating rate was 33.32%, with a decrease in overall capacity utilization rate [18][20] - Inventory: - Sample enterprises: As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises was 424,100 tons, a decrease of 14,200 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month decrease of 3.24%. The order backlog of sample enterprises was 265,700 tons, an increase of 27,400 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 11.50%. - Ports: As of January 28, 2026, the inventory of Chinese methanol port samples was 1,472,100 tons, an increase of 14,600 tons from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The inventory accumulation mainly occurred in the East China region [21][25] - Profit: Coal - to - methanol profit improved slightly but still showed an overall loss. The week - average profit of coal - to - methanol in Inner Mongolia in the northwest was - 266.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 1.00%. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shandong was - 158.10 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.58%. The average profit of coal - to - methanol in Shanxi was - 226.30 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.71%. The week - average profit of coke - oven gas - to - methanol in Hebei was 61.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 16.00%. The week - average profit of natural gas - to - methanol in the southwest was - 290.00 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 9.02% [27] 3. Methanol Trend Outlook - Supply: This week, the number of restarted domestic methanol devices may be more than that of overhauled ones. It is expected that China's methanol production will be about 2.0771 million tons, and the capacity utilization rate will be about 92.98%, an increase from last week. - Downstream Demand: - Olefins: The operating rate of the MTO industry will increase slightly. - Dimethyl Ether: The Xinxiang Xinlianxin device is expected to stop production, and the overall capacity utilization rate may decrease. - Glacial Acetic Acid: The capacity utilization rate is expected to increase slightly. - Formaldehyde: The capacity utilization rate is expected to decrease. - Chlorides: The domestic methane chloride capacity utilization rate may continue to rise. - Inventory: - Sample enterprises: The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is expected to be 401,600 tons, continuing to decline. - Ports: The port methanol inventory is expected to decrease [30][31][33]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic butadiene market in 2025 experienced fluctuations with a significant price drop compared to 2024, influenced by macroeconomic disturbances, new production capacities, high import volumes, and the performance of downstream synthetic futures [2][3][4][5][6] Group 1: Price Trends - In 2025, the average price of butadiene in Shandong was 9689 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 17.74%, with a high of 13150 yuan/ton and a low of 6800 yuan/ton [2] - The first quarter saw a strong price increase followed by a decline due to geopolitical factors and increased supply from the restart of certain production facilities [2] - The second quarter experienced significant price volatility, with a sharp drop in April due to U.S. tariffs and new production capacities coming online, followed by a recovery in May after positive trade talks between China and the U.S. [3] - In the third quarter, butadiene prices fluctuated widely, with tight supply in July leading to higher prices, but a subsequent easing of supply in August and September caused prices to decline [4] - The fourth quarter saw a "V"-shaped price trend, with prices hitting a low in November before recovering in December due to external market influences and improved demand from downstream synthetic rubber [5] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply side in 2026 is expected to be robust with new butadiene facilities coming online, including those from Zhongsha Gulei and Huajin Aramco, alongside continued production from facilities that started in late 2025 [6] - Demand may be affected by slowing growth in natural rubber production and ongoing global trade conflicts, which could hinder the improvement of terminal demand [6] - The potential for increased butadiene exports due to the planned exit of some overseas ethylene facilities and the possibility of domestic facilities shifting to lighter hydrocarbons should be monitored closely [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Report's Core View - PTA: After the sharp decline in oil prices, the PTA futures market has returned to a volatile state. The PTA futures price follows the cost - end fluctuations. Although the PTA's own fundamentals have weakened on a month - on - month basis, there is no inventory accumulation. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will continue to fluctuate weakly following the cost end, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations in polyester load [6]. - MEG: At the beginning of July, there will be a concentrated arrival of foreign - sourced goods, and the subsequent visible inventory will gradually increase. The domestic and foreign supply is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand balance of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation in the third quarter, with an overall accumulation of about 200,000 tons. The spot liquidity in the market will continue to be released. Recently, the polyester production and sales have been weak, and the inventory pressure of polyester products has been increasing. Bottle - chip factories will gradually implement maintenance, and the polyester load will decline. Although the short - term market sentiment will be driven by the short - term shutdown of Saudi Arabian plants, the overall upward trend is not sustainable, and the fundamentals cannot provide effective support [7]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review The content does not provide a specific review of the previous day. 3.2 Daily Tips PTA - **Fundamentals**: The PTA futures closed down in a volatile manner yesterday. The negotiation atmosphere in the spot market improved compared to the previous day. The spot basis stabilized after a decline, and a small number of polyester factories made inquiries. There were transactions at 09 + 145 - 150 this week and next week, with individual transactions slightly lower at 09 + 140, and the price negotiation range was around 4,900 - 4,950. Transactions at 09 + 135 - 140 were made for mid - to - late July, and around 09 + 130 - 138 for late July. Today's mainstream spot basis is at 09 + 147, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,920, the basis of the 09 contract is 126, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which is a bullish factor [6]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which is a bullish factor [6]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bullish factor [6]. - **Main Position**: The net position is short, and it has changed from long to short, which is a bearish factor [6]. - **Expectation**: After the sharp decline in oil prices, the PTA futures market has returned to a volatile state. The PTA futures price follows the cost - end fluctuations. Although the PTA's own fundamentals have weakened on a month - on - month basis, there is no inventory accumulation. It is expected that the short - term PTA spot price will continue to fluctuate weakly following the cost end, and the spot basis will fluctuate within a certain range. Attention should be paid to the fluctuations in polyester load [6]. MEG - **Fundamentals**: On Wednesday, the price of ethylene glycol rebounded, but the market negotiation was somewhat stalemate. In the night session, ethylene glycol opened higher and then declined, and the basis moderately declined. In the morning, the ethylene glycol market fluctuated upward, and in the afternoon, the spot price reached a high of around 4,390 yuan/ton, but the buying interest was average. In the afternoon, the ethylene glycol market adjusted narrowly, and the basis remained stable. The mainstream transaction was at a premium of 70 - 73 yuan/ton to the 09 contract [7]. - **Basis**: The spot price is 4,360, the basis of the 09 contract is 61, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price, which is a bullish factor [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in East China is 504,700 tons, a decrease of 26,300 tons compared to the previous period, which is a bullish factor [8]. - **Market Trend**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is a bearish factor [8]. - **Main Position**: The main net position is short, and the short position has decreased, which is a bearish factor [7]. - **Expectation**: At the beginning of July, there will be a concentrated arrival of foreign - sourced goods, and the subsequent visible inventory will gradually increase. The domestic and foreign supply is gradually recovering, and the supply - demand balance of ethylene glycol will shift to inventory accumulation in the third quarter, with an overall accumulation of about 200,000 tons. The spot liquidity in the market will continue to be released. Recently, the polyester production and sales have been weak, and the inventory pressure of polyester products has been increasing. Bottle - chip factories will gradually implement maintenance, and the polyester load will decline. Although the short - term market sentiment will be driven by the short - term shutdown of Saudi Arabian plants, the overall upward trend is not sustainable, and the fundamentals cannot provide effective support [7]. 3.3 Factors Affecting the Market - **Positive Factors**: The PX operating rate remains at a relatively high level [9]. - **Negative Factors**: Iran has confirmed a cease - fire. From the demand side, it is the end of the rush - to - export period and the off - season for domestic demand, and the downward trend of terminal demand is certain. The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level. Attention should be paid to the cost end, and after the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10][11]. 3.4 Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - **PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It shows the PTA production capacity, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of PTA over time [12]. - **Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet**: It presents the ethylene glycol operating rate, production, import, total supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory data from January 2024 to December 2025, reflecting the supply - demand relationship and inventory changes of ethylene glycol over time [13]. 3.5 Price and Profit Data - **Spot and Futures Prices**: It includes the prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers, as well as the basis and price differences of PTA and MEG futures contracts on July 2 and July 1, 2025 [14]. - **Profit Data**: It shows the processing fees and production profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester products, including PTA processing fees, MEG production profits from different raw materials, and the production profits of polyester fibers [14]. 3.6 Other Data Charts - **Bottle - Chip Data**: It includes the price, production profit, capacity utilization rate, and inventory data of PET bottle - chips [15][18][22][23]. - **Spread and Basis Data**: It shows the price differences between different PTA and MEG futures contracts, the basis of PTA and MEG, and the spot price difference between PTA and MEG [25][28][31][35][38]. - **Inventory Data**: It presents the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and polyester fibers [41][43][51]. - **Operating Rate Data**: It includes the operating rates of the upstream and downstream industries of the polyester industry chain, such as PTA, PX, ethylene glycol, polyester factories, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms [52][56]. - **Profit Data**: It shows the production profits of PTA, MEG, and polyester fibers [60][63][66].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: With the implementation of PTA's own device maintenance, the inventory continues to decline. However, the downstream terminal demand is still affected by US tariffs, and the liquidity of the PTA spot market is acceptable as warehouse receipts flow out. In the short term, the upward movement of the PTA spot basis is hindered, and the price mainly fluctuates with the cost side. Future attention should be paid to the fluctuations in the crude oil market and the changes in terminal devices around May Day [6]. - MEG: The ethylene glycol price center is operating at a low level. Although there is cost support and seasonal inventory accumulation is controllable, the valuation logic will continue, and the absolute price is expected to be mainly adjusted in a wide range. In the short term, the price center is expected to be range - bound, and future attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices [8]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1前日回顾 No relevant information provided. 3.2每日提示 - **PTA** - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the market trading focus shifted to May, mainly with traders negotiating. Some mainstream suppliers sold goods. There were different transaction prices at different time points in May, and the mainstream spot basis was 05 + 19, showing a neutral situation [6]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4490, and the 05 - contract basis was 28, with the futures price at a discount, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: The PTA factory inventory was 4.39 days, a week - on - week increase of 0.03 days, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [7]. - **Main Position**: The net short position decreased, showing a bearish situation [6]. - **Expectation**: PTA is expected to continue to reduce inventory, but the price is mainly affected by the cost side. Attention should be paid to the crude oil market and terminal device changes [6]. - **MEG** - **Fundamentals**: On Friday, the ethylene glycol price center was at a low level. Affected by the news of possible exemption of ethane tariffs, the night - session price opened lower and declined. The internal and external market transaction prices were in different ranges, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Basis**: The spot price was 4184, and the 09 - contract basis was 24, with the futures price at a discount, showing a neutral situation [8]. - **Inventory**: The total inventory in the East China region was 68.74 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.91 tons, showing a bullish situation [8]. - **Disk**: The 20 - day moving average was downward, and the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Main Position**: The main net short position decreased, showing a bearish situation [8]. - **Expectation**: In the short term, the price center is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the changes in upstream and downstream devices [8]. 3.3今日关注 No relevant information provided. 3.4基本面数据 - **Supply - Demand Balance Table** - **PTA**: The table shows the supply and demand data of PTA from January 2024 to December 2025, including capacity, output, import, consumption, and inventory changes [10]. - **MEG**: The table shows the supply and demand data of ethylene glycol from January 2024 to December 2025, including production, import, consumption, and inventory changes [11]. - **Price Data** - **Spot Price**: The prices of various products such as naphtha, PX, PTA, MEG, and polyester products on April 25 and April 24, 2025, are provided, along with their price changes [12]. - **Futures Price**: The futures prices of PTA and MEG contracts on April 25 and April 24, 2025, are provided, along with their price changes and basis data [12]. - **Profit Data**: The profit data of various products such as PTA, MEG, and polyester products on April 25, 2025, are provided, along with their profit changes [12]. - **Inventory Data** - **PTA**: The PTA factory inventory data from 2021 to 2025 are provided [41]. - **MEG**: The ethylene glycol port inventory data in the East China region from 2021 to 2025 are provided [42]. - **Polyester Products**: The inventory data of polyester products such as PET slices and polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025 are provided [43][45]. - **Operating Rate Data** - **Polyester Upstream**: The operating rate data of PTA, PX, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 are provided [52][54]. - **Polyester Downstream**: The operating rate data of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 are provided [56][58]. - **Profit Data** - **PTA**: The PTA processing fee data from 2022 to 2025 are provided [61]. - **MEG**: The profit data of different production methods of ethylene glycol from 2022 to 2025 are provided [63]. - **Polyester Products**: The profit data of polyester products such as polyester fibers from 2022 to 2025 are provided [65][67][68][69].