文 | 第一财经 进入2026年，国内电力行业迎来一场意义深远的市场化变革，" 取消固定分时电价"成为行业热点话题 ，多地密集出台政策，对直接参与电力市 场交易用户的固定分时电价机制作出调整。 业内普遍认为， 逐步取消固定分时电价是电力市场化改革的大势所趋。 此次各地政策调整，核心要义是将电价定价权从政府转移至市场，实现 电力价格"由市场主导决定"，让价格信号更真实、准确地反映实时电力供需状况，为电力资源优化配置提供支撑。 第一财经记者梳理官方文件发现， 截至目前全国已有11个省市发布相关通知， 提及对入市用户不再执行政府核定的固定分时电价， 其中9地已 明确落地取消政策 ，江苏、山西两省的调整方案仍处于征求意见阶段。 在国家政策层面，2025年12月17日， 国家发改委、国家能源局印发《电力中长期市场基本规则》 （发改能源规〔2025〕1656号，下称"1656号 文"），明确自2026年3月1日起，直接参与市场交易的经营主体，不再人为规定分时电价水平和时段。 分时电价机制是电力市场化改革过渡阶段的核心电价调控手段 ，指电力主管部门根据一天中不同时段的电力供需状况、电网负荷变化，将时间 划分为高峰、平段、低 ...

此外，"十四五"时期，中央企业资产总额连续跨上了三个大的台阶，就是70万亿、80万亿和90万亿， 2025年年底是95万亿。年均增速达到了6.9%。实现了增加值51.3万亿元，比"十三五"时期增长了 44.6%；实现利润总额12.7万亿元，比"十三五"时期增长了56.2%。 从重点产品来看，重点产品的产量也保持了稳定增长，原油产量比"十三五"时期增长了24.7%，发电 量、售电量比"十三五"时期分别增长了38.2%和40.7%，这些实物量的指标体现了中央企业自身的经济 运行情况，同时也能够反映出国民经济稳中有进的良好态势。 关于国有企业改革深化提升行动方面，中央企业在关系国家安全、国民经济命脉和国计民生等领域的营 收占比超过70%。有序推进战略性专业化重组整合，2023年以来新组建成立了4家中央企业，资源配置 持续优化。 2026年中央企业高质量发展目标是"两个确保、两个力争"：确保增加值持续增长，力争与国家GDP增速 相匹配；确保"一利五率"经营指标(利润总额、营业收现率、净资产收益率、研发经费投入强度、全员 劳动生产率、资产负债率)稳中向好，力争总体优化。 智通财经APP获悉，1月28日，国务院新闻办公室 ...

佛山顺德工业园内，4.7万平方米的厂房屋顶光伏板不再各自为政，它们被一个看不见的"打包商"聚合 成10兆瓦的"商品"，正通过南方区域电力现货市场，寻找最合适的买家。 2025年12月29日，南方区域电力现货市场的交易系统里，出现了第一批"非典型"卖家。来自深圳、佛 山、中山等地的5家虚拟电厂，将总计约33兆瓦的分散电力资源"打包"上架，以"报量报价"的方式参与 竞价。这标志着，一种聚合分布式能源并参与市场化交易的新业态，正式从试点走向真实交易。 红头文件开出"能源团购"绿灯 虚拟电厂这盘棋能下起来，首先是政策棋盘摆好了。2025年3月，国家发展改革委与国家能源局联合印 发《关于加快推进虚拟电厂发展的指导意见》，这份被业内视为"及时雨"的文件，给出了明确的量化目 标和实施路径。 文件的核心目标明确，到2027年，让全国虚拟电厂的调节能力摸到2000万千瓦的门槛;到2030年，则要 翻倍以上，冲击5000万千瓦。这相当于在未来几年内，要通过虚拟电厂的形式，聚合起数以万计分布式 电源的潜力。 政策清晰地定义了虚拟电厂的身份——它不是实体电厂，而是一个基于数字技术的"资源聚合商"和"市 场服务商"。它的任务是把海量、 ...

国家统计局1月27日发布数据显示，2025年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额73982.0亿元人民币，比上年增长0.6%，扭转了连续三年下降态势。与此 同时，受益于价格改善和盈利能力走强，2025年12月份规模以上工业企业利润同比增长5.3%，增速大幅回升。 利润增速边际回暖 三大门类增速"两升一平" 新动能支撑作用明显 从三大门类看，2025年利润增速表现为"两升一平"。制造业增长5.0%，增速较2024年大幅回升8.9个百分点；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长 9.4%；采矿业下降26.2%。 "价格改善对冲了利润率边际回落的拖累，制造业利润延续正增长态势。"温彬分析称，其中，上游原材料制造业受益于价格改善，利润保持较快增长；中 游装备制造业利润保持较快增长，对工业利润形成重要支撑。采矿业利润总额同比下降，但在价格、利润率改善的共同作用下，降幅继续收窄，实现了连 续5个月改善。 值得关注的是，装备制造业和高技术制造业都为工业高质量发展提供坚实支撑。2025年，规模以上装备制造业利润较上年增长7.7%，拉动全部规模以上 工业企业利润增长2.8个百分点；规模以上高技术制造业利润较上年增长13.3%，高于 ...

Market Performance - A-shares showed a slight increase with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.18% to 4139.9 points, and the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.09%[1] - The Hang Seng Index rebounded, rising 1.35% to 27126.95 points, with the Hang Seng Technology Index up 0.5% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index up 1.07%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong was 2543.726 billion HKD[1] Currency and Federal Reserve Insights - Trump downplayed concerns over the dollar's depreciation, leading to a significant drop in the dollar index, with the euro rising above 1.20 against the dollar[1][12] - The Federal Reserve is expected to pause its interest rate cuts, indicating a potential consensus on policy direction[1][12] Economic Sentiment - A survey by the People's Bank of China revealed that more households are looking to increase savings and reduce spending compared to before the latest round of the US-China trade war, reflecting a more pessimistic outlook on income[8][12] - The market is closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with expectations of no changes this week[12]

内蒙华电股息率较高，预计 2026 年可达 4.8%甚至更高，业绩稳健， 煤电一体化运营模式降低了煤价波动风险，且控股煤电机组具备等容替 代潜力，增强了盈利能力。 魏家峁热值下降曾影响内蒙华电业绩，若热值修复，预计增厚归母净利 润 1.8 亿元。注入风电资产后，高 ROE 将显著提升公司整体盈利能力。 内蒙华电定价模式灵活，依据落地省份市场化交易价格调整，通过多签 高电价省份电量合同，对冲电价下行风险，有效控制下行风险。 魏家峁发电厂盈利能力突出，2023-2024 年度电净利润可达每度 0.2 元，主要得益于自有煤矿降低燃料成本，且基准电价较低，降价风险较 小。 华能集团交易能力较强，能有效应对蒙西区域复杂的结算机制，实际降 幅小于预期。预计内蒙西区域电力市场已见底并开始反弹。 等容替代项目通过引入超超临界机组，可显著降低单位燃料成本，每度 电净利润提升 4.2 分，并减少碳排放支出，提升盈利能力。 预计 2026 年归母净利润同比增长 7.2%，受送华北电价和蒙西地区电 价下降影响，每度电下降 5 厘钱将分别导致归母净利润同比增速减少 1%和 2.8%。 Q&A 如何判断中国电力供需景气度，尤其是在新型电 ...

Core Insights - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the significant growth in China's power generation capacity, particularly in renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power, as reported by the National Energy Administration for the year 2025 [2][4]. Group 1: Power Generation Capacity - As of the end of 2025, the total installed power generation capacity in China reached 389.134 million kilowatts, representing a year-on-year increase of 16.1% [4]. - Among the total capacity, solar power generation capacity was 120.173 million kilowatts, showing a remarkable growth of 35.4% year-on-year [2][4]. - Wind power generation capacity reached 64.001 million kilowatts, with a year-on-year increase of 22.9% [2][4]. - Hydropower capacity was recorded at 44.802 million kilowatts, growing by 2.9% year-on-year [4]. - Thermal power capacity stood at 153.904 million kilowatts, with a growth of 6.3% [4]. - Nuclear power capacity was 6.248 million kilowatts, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [4]. Group 2: Utilization and Efficiency - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment in plants with a capacity of 6000 kilowatts and above was 3119 hours, which is a decrease of 312 hours compared to the previous year [3][4]. - The national line loss rate was reported at 4.23%, showing a slight improvement with a decrease of 0.13 percentage points [4].

Core Viewpoint - The successful operation of the world's first commercial supercritical carbon dioxide power generation unit, "Super Carbon No. 1," marks a significant advancement in energy technology, achieving higher efficiency and reduced space requirements compared to traditional steam power generation systems [1][10]. Group 1: Technology Development - The supercritical carbon dioxide (sCO2) power generation technology utilizes supercritical carbon dioxide as a working fluid to replace traditional steam, enhancing efficiency and reducing equipment size [2][3]. - The development of the microchannel heat exchanger was crucial, requiring innovative techniques to achieve high precision in manufacturing [4][5]. - The team faced significant challenges in welding microchannel plates, ultimately developing a vacuum diffusion welding technique to combine multiple layers effectively [5][6]. Group 2: Project Timeline and Milestones - The concept of supercritical carbon dioxide power generation was proposed in 1948, but it wasn't until 2009 that serious research began in China [3][10]. - The project progressed from theoretical exploration to successful laboratory validation by 2019, with commercial operation achieved in 2023 [10]. - The team underwent extensive testing and optimization, resulting in the first successful dry gas sealing technology for a megawatt-level sCO2 turbine, a global first [9][10]. Group 3: Efficiency and Performance - "Super Carbon No. 1" has achieved over 85% efficiency improvement and a 50% increase in annual power generation compared to traditional systems [1]. - The microchannel heat exchanger developed for the project has a heat transfer area increased by 33% and a thermal load increase of 27%, while its volume is reduced to one-tenth of traditional designs [7].

国家统计局1月27日发布的数据显示，2025年，全国规模以上工业企业实现利润总额73982.0亿元人民 币，比上年增长0.6%，扭转了连续3年下降态势。与此同时，受益于价格改善和盈利能力走强，2025年 12月，规模以上工业企业利润同比增长5.3%，增速大幅回升。 "总体来看，2025年规模以上工业企业利润呈现'前低后高、震荡波动'走势，全年利润增速波动较大， 但中长期向好趋势未变，企业盈利基础仍在稳步修复。"民生银行首席经济学家温彬表示，展望2026 年，规模以上工业企业利润有望延续修复态势，由阶段性修复向温和增长过渡。 三大门类增速"两升一降"新动能支撑作用明显 "2025年，各地区各部门加紧实施更加积极有为的宏观政策，加快推进新型工业化，推动工业经济稳定 向好运行。"国家统计局工业司首席统计师于卫宁表示，尤其是装备制造业、高技术制造业等新动能支 撑作用明显，传统产业利润结构持续优化，工业经济发展质效不断提升。 从三大门类看，2025年规模以上工业企业利润增速表现为"两升一降"。制造业利润增长5.0%，增速较 2024年大幅回升8.9个百分点；电力、热力、燃气及水生产和供应业增长9.4%；采矿业下降26. ...

Portfolio Performance - The portfolio net value increased from 1.000 in September 2025 to 1.175 by January 23, 2026, reflecting a growth of 17.5%[5] - The portfolio volatility was recorded at 11.16% in January 2026, compared to 8.60% in October 2025[5] Adjustments in Holdings - The total storage position was reduced from 17% to 12% due to anticipated volatility from upcoming earnings reports from major companies[6] - The allocation for non-ferrous metals was adjusted to 15%, while nuclear power was increased to 18%[6] - A new position of 2% was established in the commercial aerospace core stock, RKL[6] Macro Observations - The Nasdaq ETF (Invesco QQQ Trust) showed a year-to-date increase of 17.09%[7] - The VIX index, indicating market volatility, rose by 2.88% recently, suggesting increased market uncertainty[7] - Gold prices increased by 1.35%, reflecting a 80.10% rise over the past year[7] Energy Sector Insights - The U.S. electricity demand is projected to triple from 200 TWH to 640 TWH by 2035, indicating a significant increase in energy needs[7] - The report highlights a structural change in the U.S. electricity system, emphasizing the need for stable policies and supply chains for nuclear energy[7] Market Trends - The report notes a significant rise in rare earth companies, with CRML increasing by nearly 200% and USAR by 108% in three weeks, indicating speculative market behavior[9] - The market is characterized by a shift towards smaller-cap stocks, with larger companies showing stagnant performance, raising concerns about market stability[9]