3月26日主题复盘 | 机器人、海洋经济修复，化工板块继续活跃 一、行情回顾 市场全天窄幅震荡，三大指数小幅下跌，黄白二线走势分化，微盘股指数涨超2%。机器人概念股集体走强，奇精机械、南方精工、龙洲股份、光洋股份等 多股涨停。海洋经济概念盘中反弹，巨力索具、尤夫股份、太阳电缆、中信重工等封板。化工板块延续涨势，中毅达、键邦股份、江天化学、茂化实华等涨 停。下跌方面，银行股走势低迷，招商银行跌超5%。个股涨多跌少，沪深京三市超3500股飘红，今日成交1.18万亿。 二、当日热点 1.机器人 机器人概念今日反弹，奇精机械、南方精工、中信重工等多股涨停。 催化上，据广州日报报道，智元机器人已于近日完成新一轮融资，该轮投资由腾讯领投。据悉，智元机器人将以150亿元的估值接洽新一轮融资。 此外据今日新浪新闻报道，宇树科技负责人回应已经盈利至少5年。 | 股票名称 | | 最新价 = | 涨跌幅 = | 涨停时间 = | 换手率 = | 流通市值令 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 奇精机械 | 11天8板 | 24.87 | +10.00% ...

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) faced pressure on its performance due to fluctuating oil prices, reporting a decline in both revenue and net profit for 2024 [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved operating revenue of 3,074.6 billion yuan, a decrease of 4% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 50.3 billion yuan, down 17% year-on-year [1]. - For Q4 2024, operating revenue was 708.02 billion yuan, a decline of 4.6% year-on-year and 10.4% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 6.07 billion yuan, down 19.1% year-on-year and 29% quarter-on-quarter [1]. - The upstream segment saw an increase in profit, with exploration and development profits reaching 49.1 billion yuan, an increase of 29% year-on-year [1]. Price and Volume Metrics - The average oil price in 2024 was $72.5 per barrel, a decrease of 1.7% year-on-year, while the gas price increased from 1.78 yuan per cubic meter to 1.80 yuan, up 1.5% year-on-year [1]. - The total oil and gas equivalent production was 515 million barrels, an increase of 2.2% year-on-year, exceeding the 2024 target of 1% growth [1]. Downstream Performance - The refining segment reported an operating profit of 6.3 billion yuan, down 67% year-on-year, primarily due to falling refined oil prices and reduced diesel sales [2]. - The chemical segment experienced an operating loss of 14 billion yuan, worsening by 38% year-on-year [2]. - The marketing and distribution segment's profit decreased by 31% year-on-year to 17.7 billion yuan, attributed to weak diesel consumption and the rise of electric vehicles [2]. Shareholder Returns - The company declared a total cash dividend of 36.9 billion yuan for 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 73%, resulting in a dividend per share of 0.286 yuan [2]. - The A-share dividend yield was 5.3%, while the H-share pre-tax dividend yield was 8.1%, translating to a post-tax yield of 6.4% [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - The net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to 54.6 billion yuan and 60.3 billion yuan, respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 65.5 billion yuan [3]. - The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios for A-shares are projected at 12.8, 11.6, and 10.7 times for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, while H-shares are projected at 9.1, 8.2, and 7.6 times [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating, anticipating a recovery in downstream refining profitability and leveraging its integrated refining and chemical industry advantages [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for both A and H shares of Sinopec [1] Core Views - The company's performance is under pressure due to fluctuating oil prices, but it continues to provide high dividends to shareholders [1] - The report adjusts the forecast for net profit for 2025 and 2026 to 546 billion and 603 billion RMB respectively, with a new estimate for 2027 at 655 billion RMB [7] - The report highlights the integrated advantages of Sinopec's refining and chemical sectors, expecting profitability to improve as oil prices stabilize [7] Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for 2023 is projected at 3,212.215 billion RMB, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.19% [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders for 2023 is estimated at 60.463 billion RMB, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 9.87% [1] - The latest diluted EPS is forecasted at 0.50 RMB for 2023, decreasing to 0.41 RMB in 2024, before gradually increasing to 0.54 RMB by 2027 [1] - The P/E ratio for A shares is projected to be 11.57 for 2023, increasing to 13.91 in 2024, and then decreasing to 10.69 by 2027 [1] Segment Performance Summary - Upstream exploration and development profits increased by 29% year-on-year to 49.1 billion RMB in 2024, driven by stable oil and gas prices [7] - The refining segment reported a significant profit decline of 67% year-on-year to 6.3 billion RMB in 2024, primarily due to falling product prices and reduced diesel sales [7] - The marketing and distribution segment's profit decreased by 31% year-on-year to 17.7 billion RMB in 2024, attributed to weak diesel consumption and the rise of electric vehicles [7] Dividend Policy - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend of 369 billion RMB for 2024, with a payout ratio of approximately 73% [7] - The projected dividend per share is 0.286 RMB, resulting in a dividend yield of 5.3% for A shares and 6.4% for H shares after tax [7]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs assigns a "Neutral" rating to Sinopec (00386, 600028.SH) with a target price of HKD 4.50, citing expected weak free cash flow due to declining refining margins and oversupply in the chemical market [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - Sinopec's fourth-quarter performance in refining, sales, and chemical sectors fell short of expectations, with EBITDA 19% lower than Goldman Sachs' forecast due to higher operational costs [2] - The company's gross profit met expectations, but overall performance was impacted by lower-than-expected profit margins across multiple business segments [2] Group 2: Dividend and Cash Flow - The dividend payout ratio for 2024 is expected to remain around 71%, consistent with 2023, leading to a 17% year-on-year decline in earnings per share dividends [3] - Despite a projected positive free cash flow in 2024 after two years of negative results, the free cash flow yield of 1.3% is below Goldman Sachs' expectation of 5% due to lower earnings and high capital expenditures [3] - Capital expenditures for 2024 are expected to be 11% higher than Goldman Sachs' forecast, with a slight decrease of 1% compared to 2023, and a projected capital expenditure of RMB 164.3 billion for 2025, which is 6% above expectations [3]

石油化工产业链主要包括上游勘探开采、中游炼化加工和下游销售服务三大环节。上游环节负责油气资 源的勘探和开采；中游环节包括原油加工、化工产品生产等；下游环节则包括成品油销售、化工产品销 售等。中国石化作为一体化能源化工公司，业务覆盖全产业链，具有显著的综合优势。 近期，中国石化在多个领域取得重要进展。公司联合文化和旅游部发布"百城千站"文化和旅游消费行动 计划，计划投入25亿补贴回馈用户，全面构建"人·车·生活"智能生态圈。在页岩油勘探方面，胜利济阳 页岩油国家级示范区油气勘探取得重大突破，探明地质储量达1.4亿多吨，技术可采储量达1135.99万 吨。此外，公司还首次制定了市值管理制度，发布《中国石油化工股份有限公司市值管理办法》，进一 步完善公司治理。 页岩油气板块：中国石化页岩油勘探取得重大突破，将带动相关技术和服务需求增长。公司成功攻克页 岩油高温、高压、涌漏并存的世界级难题，相关技术突破将推动整个页岩油气产业发展。 高股息精选板块：中国石化75%的分红比例创下历史新高，A/H股股息率分别达到5%和7%，凸显其投 资价值。 相关板块分析： 石油化工板块：受益于中国石化高比例分红和页岩油勘探突破，板块估值 ...

【图】2024年11月湖北省液化石油气产量数据 摘要：【图】2024年11月湖北省液化石油气产量数据 2024年1-11月液化石油气产量分析： 据国家统计局数据，在2024年的前11个月，湖北省规模以上工业企业液化石油气产量累计达到了 94.5万吨，与2023年同期的数据相比，增长了42.9%，增速较2023年同期高36.0个百分点，继续保持增 长，增速较同期全国高37.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业液化石油气产量4953万吨的比重为 1.9%。 图表：湖北省液化石油气产量分月（累计值）统计 2024年11月液化石油气产量分析： 单独看2024年11月份，湖北省规模以上工业企业液化石油气产量达到了7.2万吨，与2023年同期的 数据相比，11月份的产量增长了25.1%，增速较2023年同期低53.3个百分点，增速放缓，增速较同期全 国高18.7个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业液化石油气产量441.9万吨的比重为1.6%。 图表：湖北省液化石油气产量分月（当月值）统计 产业调研网为您提供更多 石油化工行业最新动态 石油行业现状与发展趋势 化工市场现状及前景分析 日化市场调研与发展前景润滑油发展现状及前景 ...

Core Viewpoint - The performance of Sinopec in 2024 is significantly impacted by weak gasoline and diesel consumption, leading to a nearly 17% year-on-year decline in net profit [1][2]. Financial Performance - In 2024, Sinopec's operating revenue decreased by 4.3% to 3.07 trillion yuan, while net profit attributable to shareholders fell by 16.8% to 50.31 billion yuan [2]. - The company's main business revenue dropped by 4.2% to 3.02 trillion yuan due to a decline in both volume and price of refined oil products [2]. Segment Performance - The refining and marketing & distribution segments saw revenue declines of 3.2% and 5.7%, respectively, reaching 1.48 trillion yuan and 1.71 trillion yuan [3]. - Operating profits for the refining segment and marketing & distribution segment plummeted by 67.4% and 28.1%, amounting to 6.71 billion yuan and 18.65 billion yuan [3]. - The chemical segment experienced a significant loss of 9.997 billion yuan, worsening by nearly 4 billion yuan compared to 2023, despite a 1.7% increase in revenue to 523.9 billion yuan [3]. Upstream Growth - The exploration and production segment achieved a 25.4% increase in operating profit to 56.39 billion yuan, despite a slight revenue decline of 0.9% to 297.2 billion yuan [4]. - Cost reductions in LNG procurement, oil and gas cash operating costs, and exploration expenses contributed to the profit growth in this segment [4]. Future Outlook - Sinopec plans to invest 164.3 billion yuan in capital expenditures for 2025, with 76.7 billion yuan allocated to exploration and production, focusing on oil and gas capacity construction [4]. - The company aims to increase production of ethylene by 15.7% to 15.59 million tons in 2024, anticipating a 4.6% growth in domestic ethylene equivalent consumption in 2025 [5].

汽柴油消费疲软拖累业绩，中国石化2024年净利润 同比跌近17% "2024年，国内新增产能持续释放，化工毛利大幅缩窄；受境内汽、柴油经营量及价差下降影响，全年 成品油销售板块息税前利润同比下降23.9%至223亿元。"在3月24日召开的业绩说明会上，中国石化财 务总监寿东华描述了公司过去一年主要经营表现。 2024年，中国石化营业收入同比降低4.3%至3.07万亿元，归母净利润同比下降16.8%至503.13亿元。公 司称，国际原油价格震荡下行，国内交通行业新能源替代加速，化工市场新增产能持续释放，毛利大幅 收窄。由于成品油等产品量价齐跌，公司主营业务收入同比降低4.2%至30152亿元。 中国石化将经营活动分为勘探及开发事业部、炼油事业部、营销及分销事业部、化工事业部四个事业部 和本部及其他。其中，炼油事业部和营销及分销事业部为公司贡献了超过六成经营收入。 由于成品油消费疲软，以及成品油价格随原油价格下降，2024年中国石化炼油事业部和营销及分销事业 部经营收入分别同比下滑3.2%、5.7%，降至1.48万亿元和1.71万亿元，经营收益更是显著下滑67.4%、 28.1%，至67.14亿元和186.46亿 ...

【图】2024年11月河南省石脑油产量数据分析 摘要：【图】2024年11月河南省石脑油产量数据分析 2024年11月石脑油产量统计： 石脑油产量：5.5 万吨 同比增长：61.2% 增速较上一年同期变化：高45.8个百分点 据统计，2024年11月河南省规模以上工业企业石脑油产量与上年同期相比增长了61.2%，达5.5万 吨，增速较上一年同期高45.8个百分点，继续保持增长，增速较同期全国高63.7个百分点，约占同期全 国规模以上企业石脑油产量687.9万吨的比重为0.8%。 详见下图： 图1：河南省石脑油产量分月（当月值）统计图 2024年1-11月石脑油产量统计： 石脑油产量：56.1 万吨 同比增长：43.3% 增速较上一年同期变化：高16.4个百分点 石油化工行业最新动态 石油市场调研及发展趋势 化工行业监测及发展趋势 日化未来发展趋势预测 润滑油现状及发展前景 汽油发展前景趋势分析 柴油的现状和发展趋势 橡胶行业现状与发展趋势 塑料市场现状及前景分析 化妆品市场调研与发展前景清洁护肤发展现状及前景预测 产业调研网为您提供更多 图2：河南省石脑油产量分月（累计值）统计图 据统计，2024年1－11月 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) reported a strong financial performance for 2024, with a focus on shareholder returns and strategic growth in oil and gas production, refining, and green energy initiatives [1][2][3][4][5]. Financial Performance - The company achieved a total revenue of RMB 3.07 trillion and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 48.94 billion, resulting in earnings per share of RMB 0.404 [1]. - The expected cash dividend per share is RMB 0.286, leading to a profit distribution ratio of 75% when combined with share buybacks [2]. Oil and Gas Production - Sinopec's total oil and gas equivalent production reached 515.35 million barrels, marking a 2.2% year-on-year increase. Domestic crude oil production was 254 million barrels, up 0.9%, while natural gas production rose by 4.7% to 14,004 billion cubic feet [2]. - The company reported a domestic oil and gas reserve replacement ratio of 144% [2]. Refining and Chemical Operations - Sinopec processed 252 million tons of crude oil, producing 153 million tons of refined products, with gasoline and kerosene production increasing by 2.6% and 8.6%, respectively [3]. - The company achieved a record high in PX production and increased its ethylene output to 13.47 million tons, with total chemical product operations reaching 83.45 million tons, including a 13.1% rise in export volume [3]. Green and Innovative Development - Sinopec is advancing its integrated energy service model, focusing on low-carbon development and expanding its hydrogen and electric service offerings [4]. - The company has made significant strides in technology and innovation, including breakthroughs in deep shale gas exploration and the establishment of a national-level research institution in the energy sector [4]. - Sinopec's carbon capture and methane recovery efforts saw increases of 20.1% and 9.4%, respectively, while comprehensive energy consumption per unit of output decreased by 4.9% [4]. Future Outlook - The chairman of Sinopec indicated that by 2025, the company aims to enhance its transformation and upgrade towards high-end, intelligent, and green development, focusing on high-quality growth [5].