据英国《金融时报》6月16日报道，孙宇晨的加密平台波场（Tron）已与纳斯达克上市公司SRM Entertainment达成反向并购协议。新实体计划注入价值2.1亿美元的代币资产，并更名为"Tron Inc."。该 交易发生在美国证券交易委员会（ SEC）暂停对孙宇晨涉嫌市场操纵诉讼的关键时期，且由特朗普家 族密切关联的Dominari证券公司操盘。 本次借壳上市的操盘方Dominari证券公司的总部就位于特朗普大厦，且美国总统特朗普长子小唐纳德 （Donald Trump Jr.）与次子埃里克（Eric Trump）已于今年2月加入其母公司Dominari Holdings顾问委员 会，消息公布前该公司股价580%的异常涨幅曾引发监管关注。知情人士还透露，埃里克预计将在新成 立的"Tron Inc"中担任重要职务。 而SRM Entertainment作为壳公司，在并购消息刺激下股价在隔夜一度飙升647%。 高调参加完特朗普的币圈晚宴后，加密富豪孙宇晨创立的数字资产平台波场（Tron）要借壳上市了，壳 公司隔夜暴涨647%。耐人寻味的是，这背后的操盘方是和特朗普的儿子们关系密切的投行。 孙宇晨长期被视为加密 ...

高盛将其对埃及液化天然气进口的预测持续上调，以反映其结构性市场缺口。 ...

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the Indian government bonds, expecting a 25 basis points cut in the repo rate, which will enhance the attractiveness of these bonds [21][24][30]. Core Insights - The Indian economy is moving towards a better growth-inflation balance, with improved consumption activity noted in April. The real GDP growth forecast for CY25 has been slightly raised to 6.3% year-on-year [21][24]. - Headline CPI inflation in March reached a 5.5-year low of 3.3% year-on-year, primarily driven by a decline in food inflation [21][24]. - Financial conditions in India have eased due to a combination of policy rate cuts and improved liquidity in the banking system, resulting in over 100 basis points of easing since January 2025 [21][24][30]. Summary by Sections Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Insights - Economists estimate that nonfarm payrolls rose by 110,000 in May, which is below the consensus of 125,000 and the three-month average of 155,000. This indicates a potential slowdown in job creation [3][4][6]. - The unemployment rate is estimated to remain unchanged at 4.2%, with average hourly earnings expected to rise by 0.3% month-over-month [5][6]. Indian Monetary Policy Outlook - The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is expected to cut the repo rate by 25 basis points to 5.75% in the upcoming meeting, with further cuts anticipated in Q3 [21][23][30]. - The report suggests that the RBI may not want to maintain an ex-ante real interest rate below 1%, especially with a balanced growth outlook [23][24]. Currency and Market Dynamics - The report highlights that the Brazilian Real (BRL) and Mexican Peso (MXN) are expected to perform well in the emerging market currency space, particularly against the USD [2][4][14]. - The report also notes that the Swiss Franc (CHF) and Japanese Yen (JPY) have deviated from the regression model based on rate differentials, indicating potential trading opportunities [2][5].

投资者希望看到更多结构性改革以提高国内消费能力。 本文为IPO早知道原创 本文由公众号IPO早知道（ID：ipozaozhidao）原创撰写，如需转载请联系C叔↓↓↓ 作者｜ 罗宾 微信公众号｜ipozaozhidao 据 IPO早知道消息，近日，瑞银投资银行中国股票策略研究主管王宗豪发布观点："在为期两周的欧 洲和亚洲路演中，我们看到对中国股票的兴趣提高。" 他指出， 在欧洲投资者群体中，更多投资者目前对中国持中性态度（之前为低配），一些投资者目 前超配（在以前路演中几乎未见）。 "虽然考虑到全球不确定性，投资者普遍认同我们的观点，即中国股票相对具有吸引力，但全球基金 似乎对投资新兴市场总体上仍持谨慎态度，尤其是中国，全球投资者希望看到更可持续、消费驱动的 经济增长。" 因此，瑞银预计 外国投资者会有一些资金流入，但当出现更可持续的消费复苏或出台更大规模消费 刺激时，资金流入可能更加显著。 王宗豪表示： "互联网仍是最受欢迎的行业，大多数投资者似乎都同意我们的观点， 即中国大型互 联网龙头是布局 AI主题的最佳方式之一。 投资者对于已成长为或有潜力成长为全球或本土龙头的优 质蓝筹公司的兴趣似乎增强。 投资者 ...

Core Viewpoint - The RBC Capital Markets report indicates that escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East could lead to a significant drop in the S&P 500 index, with a potential decline of 20% if oil prices surge and inflation rises in the U.S. [1][5] Group 1: Market Impact - The S&P 500 index could fall to 4,800 points in a "severe" scenario, representing a nearly 20% drop from current levels, while a less severe situation might see it drop to around 5,200 points [1][5] - As of last week, the S&P 500 index closed at 5,976.97 points [1] - The report highlights that the longer and broader the military conflict in the Middle East, the greater the negative impact on the U.S. stock market [1] Group 2: Economic Concerns - The geopolitical conflict may raise concerns about consumer health, the broader economic situation, and the Federal Reserve's policy path, potentially leading to selling pressure on stock prices [2] - In a scenario where U.S. inflation rises to 4% and corporate earnings show zero growth, the S&P 500 index is expected to hover around 4,800 points by year-end [5] Group 3: Earnings Outlook - In a less severe inflation scenario, U.S. stock earnings are projected to grow by 7% year-on-year, with the S&P 500 index expected to be around 5,200 points by year-end [5] - RBC sets a year-end target for the S&P 500 index at 5,730 points, approximately 4% lower than the current level [5]

Group 1 - RBC Capital Markets predicts a potential 20% drop in the S&P 500 index if Middle East conflicts drive up oil prices and inflation [1] - In the worst-case scenario, the S&P 500 could fall to 4800 points, testing April's lows, based on assumptions of a 4% inflation rate and zero corporate earnings growth in 2024 [1] - Even in a moderate scenario, a 13% decline is expected, with a year-end target around 5200 points, while the baseline target is set at 5730 points, approximately 4% lower than current levels [1] Group 2 - The negative impact on U.S. stocks increases with the extent and duration of the Middle East conflict, as current valuation levels are stretched and any external shock could trigger a market correction [2] - Some analysts, like Morgan Stanley's Michael Wilson, suggest that certain indicators may point to better-than-expected corporate earnings performance in the coming year [2]

Core Insights - UBS Investment Bank's China equity strategy head Wang Zonghao noted increased interest in Chinese stocks during a recent two-week roadshow in Europe and Asia [1] - European investors have shifted from a low allocation to a neutral stance on China, with some now overweighting Chinese stocks, a significant change from previous roadshows [1] - Despite global uncertainties, investors generally find Chinese stocks attractive, but there remains a cautious approach towards emerging markets, particularly China, with a desire for sustainable, consumption-driven economic growth [1] Investment Trends - The internet sector remains the most favored among investors, who agree that leading Chinese internet companies are among the best ways to gain exposure to AI themes [1] - There is a growing interest in high-quality blue-chip companies that have either become or have the potential to become global or domestic leaders [1] - Investor focus is increasingly on sectors such as internet, technology, select global leaders, and domestic companies with strong fundamentals and limited tariff exposure [1]

Group 1 - Wall Street investment banks are adjusting their outlook on the U.S. economy, with Goldman Sachs lowering the probability of a recession from 35% to 30% over the next twelve months [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its GDP growth forecast for the U.S. from 1% to 1.25% for this year, indicating cautious optimism about the economy's resilience [1] - A key factor in this shift is the significant reduction in tariff policy uncertainty, supported by recent progress in U.S.-China negotiations [4] Group 2 - The VIX index, which measures market fear, has decreased by 18% from its April peak, and dollar financing costs have fallen to a three-month low, indicating a stabilization in the financial environment [4] - Recent inflation data shows that the U.S. CPI growth in May was below expectations, suggesting that the impact of previous tariffs on consumer prices has been weaker than anticipated [4] - The U.S. job market remains resilient, with initial jobless claims rising to 1.95 million, but non-farm payrolls continue to show positive growth [7] Group 3 - Corporate capital expenditures are recovering, with the U.S. manufacturing PMI new orders index expanding for three consecutive months [7] - Retail sales in the U.S. are maintaining a month-on-month growth rate of 0.4%, reflecting consumer resilience [7] - The U.S. housing market is showing unexpected recovery, with new housing starts increasing by 5.7% month-on-month, the highest growth rate of the year [7] Group 4 - Despite short-term pressures easing, inflation risks remain, with concerns that new tariff policies could lead to a resurgence in CPI in the coming months [10] - The increase in import costs due to tariffs on machinery and chemical products is expected to raise intermediate goods prices, while the reshoring of manufacturing may lead to higher domestic production costs [10] - The super core inflation, which excludes housing, remains high at 4.8%, significantly above the Federal Reserve's target, influencing Goldman Sachs' decision to maintain a 30% recession probability [10] Group 5 - Market indicators suggest a potential soft landing for the U.S. economy, as evidenced by the end of a three-week inverted yield curve [10] - However, business leaders remain cautious, with JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon warning that the economy appears prosperous due to massive fiscal stimulus, while policy uncertainty remains a significant variable [10] - The nearing end of the corporate inventory rebuilding cycle and rising credit card default rates indicate that the economic endurance test is far from over [10]

近日，两起人事变动和一则公告将沉寂了许久的华兴资本，重新拉回市场关注的视野。 德意志银行任命Andrew Maynard为亚太区股票执行主管，他此前是华兴资本全球股票业务主管；还有华兴资 本旗下华兴证券原董秘、首席风险官叶生明拟加盟甬兴证券。这是自创始人包凡失踪之后，华兴资本及子公司 发生的又两起人事变动。 华兴资本是否已摆脱创始人包凡失踪的负面影响？据了解，去年10月包凡妻子许彦清出任华兴资本董事会主 席，她宣称华兴进入"2.0时代"，此后王力行出任华兴资本CEO，华兴证券管理层也进行了调整，但同时华兴 资本仍受益于过去投资新经济的成果，包括近期纽交所上市的稳定币首个IPO项目Circle Internet Group。 两起人事变动 日前，德意志银行任命Andrew Maynard为亚太区股票执行主管，值此股票资本市场发展势头强劲的情况下， 强化亚太区股票资本市场领域的服务能力，他将与亚太区股票资本市场联席主管Melody Ngan和Nora Yeung共 同协作。 据德银透露，Andrew拥有30年全球股票领域资深经验以及在亚太区的深厚客户关系。在加入德意志银行之 前，他担任华兴资本全球股票业务主管，全 ...

来源|华尔街见闻 黄金需求可能会进一步上升，关键在于"第899条"条款是否落地。 高盛贵金属团队最新报告指出，全球央行和官方机构（不含美国）在今年4月通过伦敦场外市场 （OTC）购入黄金68吨，远高于2022年疫情前的月均水平17吨。今年迄今为止，央行的平均月度 购金达到了88吨，已经略微超过高盛原先的预测（到2026年中为80吨/月）。 尽管如此，高盛经济学家认为该税改最终被取消或推迟的可能性较大。一方面，美国参议院有较大 概率否决这一条款。另一方面，即使通过，央行等主权投资者也可能被明确豁免，或将执行时间推 迟至2027年。 高盛重申做多黄金交易并指出，由于黄金作为避险资产的作用持续显现，我们维持此前的预测，即 强劲的央行购金将推动金价到202年底升至每盎司3700美元，到2026年中期进一步升至每盎司 4000元。 据华尔街见闻此前文章，由于全球央行大举增持黄金，加上金价飙升，黄金已取代欧元，成为全球 央行持有的第二大储备资产，仅次于美元。 【 热门视频推荐 】 点击在 看 持续关注↓↓↓ 高盛指出，如果美国正在讨论的第899条税收法案导致央行减少对美债的配置，黄金需求可能进一 步增强。 第8 99条条 ...