Core Viewpoint - The article draws a parallel between the fiscal challenges faced by ancient Rome and the current economic situation in the United States, highlighting the tension between a robust GDP and soaring national debt. Group 1: GDP Lion - The World Bank projects the U.S. GDP for 2024 to be $29 trillion, which is equivalent to the combined GDP of Germany, Japan, India, and Canada [2] - The U.S. economy is growing at an annual rate of 3%, which is significantly higher than other developed nations like Germany (0.5%), Japan (1%), and the UK (negative growth) [2] - Economist John Kenneth Galbraith warned that while debt can support economic health, excessive debt can lead to destruction [2] Group 2: National Debt Dragon - The U.S. national debt is projected to exceed $38 trillion by October 2025, with a stark increase from $20 trillion in January 2017 to $36 trillion in January 2025 [4] - The U.S. is accruing debt at a rate of $3.8 million per minute, leading to an average debt burden of $110,000 per person [6] - The previous administration's debt reduction strategies have failed, as savings from budget cuts do not offset military spending and other financial obligations [6] Group 3: Economic Imbalance - The current economic imbalance is highlighted by a GDP growth rate of 3% and a national debt growth rate of 5.6%, creating a 2.6 percentage point gap [7] - The debt-to-GDP ratio has surged to 131%, significantly higher than the 55% ratio during the 2000 tech bubble [7] - Harvard economist Carmen Reinhart warns that when national debt exceeds 90% of GDP, each additional percentage point of debt reduces economic growth by 0.02% [7] Group 4: Dollar Dominance Challenges - The U.S. dollar's dominance is threatened by rising yields on 10-year Treasury bonds, which are expected to reach 5.2% by 2025, indicating higher risk premiums demanded by the market [10] - A trend towards de-dollarization is emerging, with countries like Russia and Saudi Arabia moving away from the dollar in trade [12] - The freezing of Russian dollar assets has prompted central banks to secretly divest from U.S. debt [13] Group 5: Historical Lessons - Historical patterns show that excessive debt often leads to the decline of great powers, as seen in the cases of the Spanish Empire, British Empire, and the Soviet Union [15] - Former Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker noted that debt crises build gradually until they overwhelm those who underestimate the risks [15] Group 6: Future Choices - The U.S. faces three potential paths to address its $38 trillion debt: significant cuts to military spending, debt restructuring, or allowing inflation to erode the value of debt [17] - Each option carries the potential to disrupt the existing international order [17]

Summary of the 2026 China Equity Strategy Outlook Industry Overview - The report focuses on the **Chinese stock market** and its outlook for 2026, following a strong performance in 2025 where major indices like the MSCI China Index and Hang Seng Index rose over **30%** year-to-date [1][10][11]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Market Stability and Growth**: - 2026 is expected to be a year of stabilization after the high returns of 2025, with limited upside potential for indices and moderate earnings growth projected at **6%** [2][15]. - The MSCI China Index is forecasted to trade at a forward P/E ratio of **12-13x**, with a target of **90 points** for December 2026, indicating a **3%** upside from the current levels [2][15]. 2. **Valuation and Earnings Quality**: - The report highlights that the valuation re-rating has already occurred, with a **30%** increase in the past year, suggesting limited room for further upward revaluation [12][15]. - Concerns about the sustainability of corporate earnings are raised, as recent earnings reports show a slight deterioration in the number of companies exceeding expectations [11][15]. 3. **Macroeconomic Factors**: - The Chinese economy is expected to face ongoing deflationary pressures, with real GDP growth projected to slow to **4.8%** in 2026 [12][15]. - Global macroeconomic uncertainties, particularly regarding the U.S. economy, could impact China's growth trajectory [14][15]. 4. **Investment Strategy**: - A "barbell strategy" is recommended, favoring high-quality internet and technology leaders while underweighting sectors like real estate, consumer staples, and energy that are negatively impacted by macroeconomic conditions [3][30]. - Key trading ideas include focusing on stocks benefiting from the "anti-involution" policies and those included in the Hong Kong Stock Connect [3][31]. 5. **Liquidity and Capital Flows**: - The report anticipates continued net inflows into both A-shares and offshore markets, supported by policy measures aimed at stimulating consumption and managing real estate inventories [2][28]. Additional Important Insights - **Geopolitical Considerations**: The report notes that a stable geopolitical environment, particularly in U.S.-China relations, could positively influence market sentiment [22][25]. - **Sector Preferences**: There is a strong emphasis on investing in companies with robust fundamentals and growth prospects, particularly in technology and innovation sectors aligned with China's strategic planning [19][30]. - **Scenario Analysis**: The report outlines a wide range of potential outcomes for the Chinese stock market, with optimistic scenarios suggesting a **30%** upside and pessimistic scenarios indicating a potential **34%** decline [25][26]. Conclusion - The outlook for the Chinese stock market in 2026 is characterized by cautious optimism, with a focus on sustainable growth and selective investment strategies. The anticipated stabilization in market performance, combined with macroeconomic challenges, necessitates a strategic approach to capital allocation in the coming year [1][15][19].

Core Viewpoint - Jefferies analyst Michael Toomey indicates that multiple technical indicators suggest that investor sentiment is overly pessimistic, and a rebound in the U.S. stock market is imminent [1] Group 1: Technical Indicators - The put-call ratio for the S&P 500 has surged to a near-term high, reflecting extreme pessimism among investors, as it shows the comparison between the number of put options (hedging tools) and call options (bullish tools) [1] - 17% of technology, media, and telecommunications stocks are showing oversold signals, which typically indicates that the current downtrend may be nearing its bottom, as historical data shows this percentage usually peaks in the low twenties [1] - The bearish sentiment among retail investors has reached a 12-month second-high, with 49.1% of individual investors surveyed by the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) expressing bearish views, exceeding bullish views by nearly 18 percentage points [1] Group 2: Investor Sentiment - The CNN Fear and Greed Index indicates that investor fear has reached its highest level since the "Liberation Day" tariff storm in April [1] - Toomey cautions that market sentiment is only one reference indicator, and if fundamental conditions deteriorate, such as a hawkish shift from the Federal Reserve, a collapse in the job market, or a decline in corporate profits, the current downtrend may just be the beginning [1]

南方财经11月20日电，中金公司在港交所暂停交易。 ...

中金公司在香港暂停交易。 ...

当地时间周三， 美国劳工统计局（Bureau of Labor Statistics，BLS）表示，将不会发布10月非农就 业报告，而是把相关的就业数据纳入11月报告。 11月非农就业报告将于12月16日发布，比原计划晚了一个多星期，并且是在美联储今年最后一次会议 之后公布。 9月非农就业报告将于本周四发布。 美国非农就业报告由两项调查组成，一项面向家庭，另一项面向企业机构，后者用来统计非农就业人 数。 由于美国创纪录的政府关门，BLS无法收集10月的住户调查数据——这些数据用于计算包括失业率在内 的关键指标 。BLS表示， 这些数据无法事后补采 。BLS还表示， 将延长11月家庭调查和机构调查的收 集周期。 经济学家此前就指出，由于数据收集方式极为依赖人工，家庭调查数据存在被跳过的风险，但他们仍预 期10月的非农就业数据会如期发布。白宫国家经济委员会主任哈赛特上周曾表示，10月就业报告将不会 包含失业率。 虽然许多企业保存记录并以电子方式报告薪酬数据，但要事后通过电话联系居民、并让受访者回忆10月 某一周的就业状况，难度要大得多。家庭调查由BLS与人口普查局联合进行，每月调查约6万户家庭。 BLS还将跳过发 ...

Group 1 - Multiple foreign institutions, including Morgan Stanley and UBS, express confidence in the future development of China's economy and capital markets, maintaining an overweight position on Chinese stocks and raising the target for the Chinese stock index [1][2] - Positive factors supporting the Chinese stock market are expected to continue into next year, with foreign capital anticipated to keep flowing in, particularly into sectors like AI, technology, overseas expansion, and "anti-involution" [1][2] Group 2 - China's economy is projected to maintain steady growth in 2026, supported by policy measures, resilient exports, and a gradual recovery in consumption and public service spending [2][3] - Goldman Sachs has raised its forecasts for China's export growth and real GDP growth, expecting annual export growth of 5% to 6% in the coming years, while the drag from the real estate sector is expected to diminish [2][3] Group 3 - The focus of the stock market is shifting towards substantial improvements in corporate profitability, with UBS predicting another "bumper year" for the Chinese stock market in 2026 [3][4] - Factors such as the development of innovation sectors, support for private enterprises, and continued fiscal expansion are expected to sustain the market, although significant valuation increases are not anticipated [3][4] Group 4 - Foreign capital has been consistently flowing into the Chinese stock market, with $50.6 billion entering in the first ten months of this year, significantly surpassing the total for 2024 [5] - Institutional investors are increasingly confident in China's capabilities in AI, technology, and high-end manufacturing, with many indicating plans to increase their allocation to Chinese stocks in the coming months [5]

关于报告的所有内容，请于公众『市场分析报告』阅读原文 《高盛：2026年全球市场展望（美联储降息+AI+中国出口）》 1. 宏观环境 2025年末，投资者的关注点集中在美国政府关门带来的数据缺失，以及美联储的降息预期上。高盛的基本判断是，美联储会在不出现衰退的情况下温和降 息，政府开支恢复、关税压力减轻、财政政策转向宽松，为2026年初的全球增长带来支撑。历史上，美联储只要是在经济未衰退时降息，标普500往往继续 上涨。但目前的市场估值已反映了较多宽松和增长预期，导致信用和资产负债表的薄弱环节逐渐显现，股市虽有上涨空间，但波动也同步加大。 2. 就业压力与降息节奏 近期美国就业市场的不确定性是短期内的最大变量。政府关门期间，官方失业率数据曾经中断，高盛自己追踪了Challenger, Gray & Christmas、美国劳工 部、JOLTS裁员率、WARN通知和财报会议中的裁员信息，结果显示裁员确实在上升，但并不是急剧恶化。如果接下来几个月失业率快速攀升，市场 对"Sahm规则"触发的担忧会升温，原本预计明年3月的30个基点降息会提前、加码。反之，如果就业只是在慢慢降温，这一阶段的风险窗口会逐步消除，风 险 ...

高盛CEO认为，技术面目前更倾向于保护性操作和更多下跌空间，市场可能会进一步回调。标普500指数本月已下跌超过3%，有望创下3月以来最差月 度表现。投资者密切关注英伟达财报，这被视为检验AI热潮可持续性和市场稳定性的关键指标。 全球股市经历1.6万亿美元抛售潮后，华尔街顶级投资机构对后市走向出现明显分歧，高盛CEO警告市场可能进一步下跌，巴克莱前CEO则认为这只是 健康调整而非熊市前兆。 当地时间周三，高盛总裁兼首席运营官John Waldron在新加坡表示 ，"我觉得市场可能会从目前位置进一步回调"，并指出技术面更倾向于保护性操作 和更多下跌空间。 相比之下，前巴克莱CEO Bob Diamond对市场前景相对乐观。他表示："我们看到风险资产被重新定价。在我看来，这是一次健康的调整，不是正在转 向熊市的征象。" 标普500指数本月已下跌超过3%，有望创下3月以来最差月度表现。投资者密切关注英伟达财报，这被视为检验AI热潮可持续性和市场稳定性的关键指 标。 高盛警告技术面偏空 Goldman Sachs总裁Waldron在接受采访时表示，当前市场的技术面更倾向于保护性操作和下行风险。他认为今年市场已有相当涨幅 ...

全球股市经历1.6万亿美元抛售潮后，华尔街顶级投资机构对后市走向出现明显分歧，高盛CEO警告市场可能进一步下跌，巴克莱前CEO则认为这只是健康 调整而非熊市前兆。 当地时间周三，高盛总裁兼首席运营官John Waldron在新加坡表示，"我觉得市场可能会从目前位置进一步回调"，并指出技术面更倾向于保护性操作和更多 下跌空间。 相比之下，前巴克莱CEO Bob Diamond对市场前景相对乐观。他表示："我们看到风险资产被重新定价。在我看来，这是一次健康的调整，不是正在转向熊 市的征象。" 标普500指数本月已下跌超过3%，有望创下3月以来最差月度表现。投资者密切关注英伟达财报，这被视为检验AI热潮可持续性和市场稳定性的关键指标。 高盛警告技术面偏空 Goldman Sachs总裁Waldron在接受采访时表示，当前市场的技术面更倾向于保护性操作和下行风险。他认为今年市场已有相当涨幅，当前的回调"是健康 的"。 Waldron特别关注AI投资回报率问题："市场现在严重关注这种AI动态：我们是否会从市场预期的资本投资中获得回报，这是否已被计价？这是一个重大争 论。"他预计进一步的市场下跌将是温和的，"我不认为会比 ...