Core Insights - The article highlights the development of Sishui County's agricultural processing industry, emphasizing its unique geographical advantages and the establishment of a robust agricultural product processing framework [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Industry Development - Sishui County has positioned itself as a key player in agricultural processing, leveraging its natural resources and favorable conditions to create a high-quality agricultural product processing industry [1] - The county has been recognized as a demonstration county for agricultural product processing in Shandong Province and has received accolades as a strong county in the national food industry [1] Group 2: Industrial Clusters - The county has developed four major agricultural processing industry clusters led by key enterprises, including Lifen Food for root and starch products, Jinchuan Food for grain and oil products, Hongrun Food for meat and poultry products, and Wahaha for mineral water and fruit and vegetable beverages [1][2] - Sishui County's leisure food production base has been designated as a provincial food specialty advantage base, contributing to the establishment of a billion-level food industry cluster [1][2] Group 3: Specialized Parks - Sishui County has constructed specialized health food industrial parks to attract agricultural processing enterprises, enhancing resource sharing and overall industry competitiveness [2] - The county has successfully created a provincial agricultural product processing demonstration park and is recognized as a key construction park for high-quality development in the pre-prepared vegetable industry [2] Group 4: Value Chain Enhancement - The county focuses on strengthening, extending, and supplementing the agricultural processing industry chain, promoting cooperation among local enterprises and enhancing the overall value of the industry [3] - Sishui County aims to develop a comprehensive industry chain that includes breeding, processing, and sales, establishing itself as a leader in sweet potato processing [3] Group 5: Brand Development - The county actively cultivates regional public brands such as "Sishui Sweet Potato" and "Sishui Peanut," enhancing the brand value of its agricultural products [4] - "Sishui Sweet Potato" has been included in national agricultural brand cultivation plans, with its brand value projected to reach 6.253 billion yuan in 2024 [4] Group 6: Future Goals - Sishui County aims to achieve a "one hundred billion, five-fold increase" target in agricultural processing, focusing on high standards for parks, high-quality brand cultivation, and efficient enterprise services [5]

Group 1 - Daqing's agricultural product processing industry is experiencing high-quality development, with a projected revenue of 25.17 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - Lin Dian Wang Shi Food Processing Co., Ltd. has transformed from selling raw grains to producing pancakes, effectively mitigating market risks associated with grain sales [1] - The company operates five production lines, capable of producing 470-500 jin (approximately 235-250 kg) of pancakes daily, with sales covering the entire country [1] Group 2 - Daqing has established a significant rice and corn processing industry, with 31 large-scale rice processing enterprises and an annual processing capacity of 1.45 million tons [2] - Zhaoyuan rice has become one of the first geographical indications recognized by China and the EU, contributing to regional economic development [2] - The corn processing sector is also growing, with 10 large-scale enterprises and a notable output from Yipin, which has maintained over 4 billion yuan in revenue for three consecutive years [2] Group 3 - The dairy and meat industries in Daqing are thriving, with major companies like Yili and Mengniu leading the market [3] - Lin Dian County ranks among the top in dairy processing at the county level, while the meat industry is supported by a comprehensive supply chain from breeding to processing [4] - Daqing is developing a diversified agricultural industry system focusing on four main industries (dairy, meat, corn, rice) and eight specialty industries, enhancing the region's economic growth [4]

Report Title - "外强内弱，粕类区间震荡等待指引" [1][3] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The meal market shows a pattern of strong external and weak internal performance, with meal prices oscillating within a range and awaiting further guidance [1][47] Summary by Section I. China-US Trade Negotiations and US Soybean Growing Weather - China-US trade negotiations have made some progress, with China relaxing rare earth export controls to the US in June and the US canceling export controls on semiconductor software and jet engines to China in July, but future negotiations remain uncertain [8][9] - Trump's global tariff war is bound to be full of twists and turns. The US reached trade agreements with Vietnam and Cambodia in July, and the tariff agreements with Japan, South Korea, and the EU are more important. July 9 is the deadline for the US to suspend the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" [10] - The growing weather for US soybeans is currently favorable, with the new - season yield per unit area remaining at a relatively high level, but there is still a possibility of weather - related speculation in the future [11] II. Analysis of the Supply and Demand Fundamentals of Meal - The concentrated arrival of Brazilian soybeans in China is suppressing the futures and spot prices of beans. The peak of imported soybean arrivals has been postponed to June, with an overall increase. The soybean crushing volume of oil mills remains high, and the output of soybean meal in June has increased significantly year - on - year. The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in oil mills has continued to rise, while the downstream procurement has slightly recovered at low levels and the提货量 has declined from high levels [15][16][17] - With the listing of domestic rapeseed, the short - term supply of rapeseed meal has become abundant. The expected increase in imported rapeseed, the concentrated listing of domestic rapeseed, and the concentrated release of aquaculture demand have contributed to this situation. Although the arrival volume of imported rapeseed in July was lower than expected and the import cost fluctuated slightly, the rapeseed crushing volume of oil mills decreased slightly, and the rapeseed inventory of oil mills rebounded from a low level while the rapeseed meal inventory remained low [31][32][34] - Rapeseed meal is in the peak season of supply and demand, showing relative stability and balance. Imported Brazilian soybeans will lead to inventory accumulation from June to July and inventory reduction from August to September. The 2509 contract will mainly oscillate within a range as the futures and spot prices converge, and the soybean meal 2601 contract will generally oscillate strongly while rapeseed meal is relatively weak [46] III. Short - Term Range Oscillation of Meal Awaiting Guidance - Uncertainties in China - US trade negotiations and US soybean growing weather, the concentrated arrival of imported soybeans leading to a weak current situation and strong expectations in China, and the relatively stable supply and demand of rapeseed meal, which acts as a price stabilizer [47] - The key future variables include weather - related speculation on the new - season US soybeans, the follow - up of China - US tariff negotiations, and changes in domestic demand [47] - The bullish factors are the speculation on the new - season US soybean weather and the uncertainty of China - US tariff negotiations, while the bearish factors are the short - term inventory accumulation pressure due to the concentrated arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, the expected abundant short - term supply of domestic rapeseed meal after the listing of domestic rapeseed, and the current spot pressure on soybean meal during the off - season of demand [49]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The better-than-expected June non-farm payrolls in the US postponed market bets on Fed rate cuts, leading to a slight rebound in the US dollar index. The implementation of the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the US deficit pressure. There are concerns in the US employment market, with an increase in the proportion of permanent unemployment and continued rise in continuing jobless claims, along with slowing wage growth. The "Big and Beautiful" bill may have limited long - term economic boost but will add $3.3 trillion to the US deficit over the next 10 years [5]. - Domestic macro: China's economic fundamentals are showing resilience with an upward trend. The "anti - involution" policy combined with low prices has driven short - term rebounds in commodities such as rebar, glass, and polysilicon. The June manufacturing PMI and non - manufacturing business activities have improved. The "anti - involution" policy has a significant impact on domestic - demand - oriented commodities and those that have been falling since the beginning of the year [5]. - Asset viewpoints: For major asset classes, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities, with the policy - driven logic strengthening. There is a higher probability of incremental domestic policies being implemented in the fourth quarter. Overseas, attention should be paid to tariff frictions and geopolitical risks. In the long term, the weak US dollar pattern will continue. Strategic allocation to resources such as gold should be maintained [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas**: The better - than - expected June non - farm payrolls in the US postponed rate - cut bets, and the "Big and Beautiful" bill will increase the deficit. There are concerns in the employment market [5]. - **Domestic**: Economic fundamentals are improving. The "anti - involution" policy has led to short - term rebounds in some commodities, and the June PMI data shows improvement [5]. - **Asset Outlook**: Domestic assets have structural opportunities, and overseas risks such as tariff frictions should be watched. A strategic allocation to gold is recommended [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial and Macro - **Domestic**: Moderate reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts are expected, and short - term fiscal policies will be implemented as planned [7]. - **Overseas**: Inflation expectations are flattening, economic growth expectations are improving, and stagflation trading is cooling [7]. - **Stock Index Futures**: Anti - involution competition is boosting policy expectations, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [7]. - **Stock Index Options**: A defensive strategy is recommended, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment is warming up, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: Precious metals are in a short - term adjustment phase, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price - increase implementation, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: Supply disturbances are increasing, and the market is showing strength, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Iron Ore**: Iron ore production is decreasing, and port inventories are slightly decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Coke**: Fundamentals are improving, and cost support is strong, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is slowly recovering, and upstream inventories are decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Silicon Iron**: Policy expectations are rising, and the market is strongly rising, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Manganese Silicon**: Supply - demand is marginally weakening, and the market is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Glass**: Far - month expectations are being repaired, and inventories are slightly decreasing, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Soda Ash**: Supply exceeds demand, and the price center is moving down, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: LME inventories are low, and copper prices are high, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Alumina**: The "anti - involution" policy has stimulated market sentiment, and the market has risen strongly, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Aluminum/Zinc**: Aluminum prices are oscillating strongly, and zinc prices are oscillating weakly, with short - term outlooks of volatility and volatile decline respectively [7]. - **Lead**: Cost support is stable, and lead prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Nickel**: The industrial product market is improving, and nickel prices are strong in the short term, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [7]. - **Stainless Steel**: Market sentiment is boosting, and the market is rising, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Tin**: Supply - demand fundamentals are resilient, and tin prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Supply - side policy expectations are positive, and silicon prices are oscillating upwards, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Driven by demand expectations and sentiment, lithium prices are oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [7]. 3.2.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The rebound is limited, and attention should be paid to geopolitical disturbances, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **LPG**: The market is trading based on loose fundamentals, and the PG market may be weakly volatile, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **Asphalt**: OPEC+ over - production in August has weakened asphalt futures prices, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: OPEC+ over - production has strengthened the weakness of high - sulfur fuel oil, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The low - high sulfur spread is rebounding, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **Methanol**: The Taicang price is weakening, and methanol is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Urea**: The domestic supply - demand situation is difficult to change, and urea may oscillate in the short term, relying on exports [9]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The basis is stable, and plants are restarting, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - **PX**: Crude oil is stable, and PX is oscillating strongly, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **PTA**: Supply - demand is weakening, and the cost of PX is strong, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Short - Fiber**: The basis is falling, and processing fees are rising, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - **Bottle Chips**: Maintenance is starting, and processing fees have bottomed out, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **PP**: Important meetings have boosted market expectations, and PP is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Plastic**: The "anti - involution" policy has slightly boosted the market, and plastic is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Styrene**: There is a lack of driving factors, and styrene is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatile decline [9]. - **PVC**: Low valuation and weak supply - demand, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Caustic Soda**: The spot market is weakly stable, and caustic soda is oscillating, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. 3.2.7 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: The market was weakly volatile yesterday, and palm oil is more resistant to decline, with a short - term outlook of volatile upward movement [9]. - **Protein Meal**: Supply pressure dominates, and the spot market is leading the decline, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Corn/Starch**: The market sentiment is poor, and the market is in a weak adjustment, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Rubber**: After a decline, it has stabilized, with limited downward space in the short term, and a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak raw materials have dragged down the market, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Pulp**: The market is in a stalemate, and the downward trend has not been confirmed to end, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Cotton**: Cotton prices are in a new round of oscillation, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Sugar**: There is a lack of positive factors, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9]. - **Timber**: Spot digestion is limited, and the market is still weakly operating in the short term, with a short - term outlook of volatility [9].

昨日国际油价低开高走，布伦特09合约涨1.59%。我们认为0PEC+的快速增产政策对三季度的油价 冲击暂时有限，一方面考虑到部分产油国的实际产量已远高于目标产量且同步存在减产补偿计划的 约束，OPEC+实际月度增产量均小于产量目标的上调幅度；另一方面，三季度为汽油、航煤需求的 季节性旺季，本轮增产在夏季尚可得到需求端较好的承接。而度过三季度旺季之后，若美国的对等 关税政策依然延续，OPEC+产量的回归将对基本面产生更直接的利空压力，在中东地缘局势保持可 控的情景下油价重心面临进一步下移。豁免期延续至8月1日的美国对等关税最终博弈结果或不高于4 月初水平，原油短期仍持三季度底部抬升、震荡偏强的判断。 【责金属】 隔夜贵金属偏弱震荡。上周美国非农数据超预期支持美联储继续保持观望，市场放弃对7月降息押 注。市场焦点转向即将到期的美国关税政策变动,特朗普威胁对部分国家加征关税。贵金属延续震 荡等待政策落地对市场情绪的影响。 (铜) 隔夜铜价走低，美盘铜日内跌幅大，特朗普向日韩及东盟国家放出一系列对等关税消息，并威胁金 砖国家关税税率。周内继续关注2507合约减仓速度，国内消费谈季明显，SMM社库增加1.1万吨至 14 ...

Core Viewpoint - Agricultural modernization is crucial for ensuring food security and economic stability in China, with a focus on enhancing the agricultural sector to support the nation's development goals [1][2][5]. Group 1: Agricultural Production and Achievements - Henan province, utilizing less than 6% of China's arable land, produces nearly 10% of the nation's grain, with wheat accounting for one-quarter of the national output [3]. - In the previous year, Henan's summer grain production reached 757.14 billion jin, ranking first in the country, while total grain production was 1,344 billion jin, placing second nationally [3]. - The province has seen significant growth in various agricultural products, including oilseeds and vegetables, contributing to its reputation as a "grain warehouse" [3]. Group 2: Technological Advancements in Agriculture - The province has invested heavily in agricultural mechanization and smart technology, with 850,000 sowing machines deployed, including 87,000 precision sowing machines [4]. - The adoption of advanced techniques such as single-seed precision sowing and integrated water and fertilizer management has improved sowing quality and efficiency [4]. Group 3: Economic Impact and Rural Development - The agricultural sector's modernization is expected to release substantial creative energy and consumer demand, supporting economic stability and growth [2]. - The number of farmer cooperatives and family farms has increased significantly, with 203,000 cooperatives and 275,000 family farms established in the province [3]. - Rural residents' disposable income grew by 6.4% last year, indicating positive economic trends in rural areas [3]. Group 4: Future Directions and Policy Support - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of rural revitalization and agricultural development as part of its modernization strategy, aiming to enhance food security and rural living standards [6]. - The focus is on building a diversified food supply system and fostering new industries and business models in rural areas [6].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. soybean market has experienced a significant decline due to favorable weather conditions in production areas and a lack of substantial demand-side support, impacting the domestic soybean meal market [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The U.S. soybean market has seen a drop, influenced by good weather in production areas and weak demand [1] - Domestic soybean meal prices have weakened as costs decline, with limited support for rapeseed meal [1] - The price spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal has widened, indicating increased pressure on rapeseed meal prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The U.S. soybean crop balance sheet has improved, supported by biodiesel policies, but production and export lack positive factors [1] - As of June 15, the U.S. soybean crop's good-to-excellent rating reached 66% [1] - The export inspection volume for old U.S. soybeans was 215,800 tons as of June 12 [1] Group 3: Processing and Inventory - U.S. soybean crushing data for May showed a total of 19.2829 million bushels, a month-on-month increase of 1.37%, indicating a rebound in profitability [1] - Brazilian farmers are selling at a historically low pace, with recent sales slowing down and price pressures emerging [1] - Domestic soybean crushing volume reached 2.3322 million tons as of July 4, with an operating rate of 65.56% [1] Group 4: Future Outlook - The market is currently stable with reduced macroeconomic disturbances, although concerns about future supply uncertainties remain [1] - The demand for U.S. soybeans from China is expected to remain high in the short term, limiting significant declines [1] - The trading strategy suggests focusing on low-position long positions and observing the market for options [1]

Core Insights - The company has significantly improved its market competitiveness and future development prospects since obtaining the "STC Hong Kong Quality Certification" [1] Production and Management - The company has successfully transferred 5,000 acres of rice planting base and invested in soil improvement and irrigation facility upgrades, ensuring a stable and sustainable growth environment for rice [3] - The yield per acre has increased by approximately 10% due to scientific planning and meticulous management, enhancing both the quality and quantity of rice production [3] - The company has established partnerships with over 200 farmers to promote standardized planting techniques, laying a solid foundation for high-quality rice production [3] Production Efficiency - The company has upgraded its production lines with advanced intelligent equipment, increasing the rice processing capacity from 8 tons to 10 tons per hour while reducing manual intervention [5] - The production process is now more standardized, ensuring consistent product quality through rigorous quality control measures, with a product pass rate exceeding 99% since certification [5] Sales and Marketing - Annual sales volume increased from 5,000 tons to 8,000 tons after obtaining the STC certification, with the proportion of sales through e-commerce channels rising from 20% to 40% [7] - The company has formed long-term partnerships with high-end supermarkets and specialty grain and oil stores, enhancing market coverage and brand reputation [7] Brand Promotion - The company actively participates in domestic and international agricultural product exhibitions, showcasing its premium rice products and attracting professional buyers and consumers [9] - Following recommendations from industry experts and food bloggers, sales increased by approximately 15% within a month [9] - The company conducts offline interactive activities, such as rice cooking competitions and healthy eating seminars, to enhance consumer engagement and brand loyalty, with an average participation of over 200 people per event [9]

Core Insights - The price monitoring data from the Development and Reform Bureau of Yanzhou District, Jining City, indicates mixed trends in the prices of major livelihood commodities in June 2025, with grain prices rising steadily, stable edible oil prices, fluctuating pork prices, declining egg prices, and varying trends in aquatic products and vegetable prices [1] Grain Prices - The average price of ordinary wheat is 1.17 yuan per jin, unchanged month-on-month but down 4.1% year-on-year [2] - The average price of corn is 1.16 yuan per jin, up 0.9% month-on-month and up 3.6% year-on-year [2] - The average price of standard flour is 2.00 yuan per jin, stable both month-on-month and year-on-year [2] - The average price of rice is 2.80 yuan per jin, also stable month-on-month and year-on-year [2] Edible Oil Prices - The average price of soybean oil (5L) is 65.00 yuan, stable month-on-month and year-on-year [3] - The average price of peanut oil (5L) is 156.00 yuan, unchanged month-on-month and year-on-year [3] - The average price of soybeans is 4.00 yuan per jin, stable month-on-month [3] - The average price of peanuts is 6.50 yuan per jin, also stable month-on-month [3] Pork Prices - The average price of pork belly in the market is 11.25 yuan per jin, down 3.0% month-on-month and down 18.2% year-on-year [4] - The average price of lean pork in the market is 13.63 yuan per jin, down 1.2% month-on-month and down 13.5% year-on-year [4] - The average price of pork belly in supermarkets is 17.90 yuan per jin, up 2.9% month-on-month but down 10.7% year-on-year [4] - The average price of lean pork in supermarkets is 15.90 yuan per jin, stable month-on-month and up 0.6% year-on-year [4] - The daily sales volume of pork has decreased significantly, with a reduction of one-third compared to the same period last year [4] Egg Prices - The average price of white strip chicken is 6.00 yuan per jin, stable month-on-month but down 7.7% year-on-year [4] - The average price of eggs in supermarkets is 3.31 yuan per jin, down 3.8% month-on-month and down 22.1% year-on-year [4] Aquatic Product Prices - The average price of frozen hairtail is 10.00 yuan per jin, down 16.7% month-on-month but stable year-on-year [5] - The average price of live carp is 8.00 yuan per jin, up 14.3% month-on-month and up 10.3% year-on-year [5] Vegetable Prices - The average price of 17 monitored vegetable varieties is 2.24 yuan per jin, up 8.7% month-on-month [6] - Significant price increases include celery (2.03 yuan, up 35.3%), cabbage (1.10 yuan, up 25%), cucumber (2.25 yuan, up 23.6%), and others [6] - Notable price decreases include carrot (1.75 yuan, down 10.7%), tomato (2.10 yuan, down 14.6%), and potato (1.58 yuan, down 12.2%) [6] Fruit Prices - The average price of red Fuji apples is 8.80 yuan per jin, stable month-on-month but down 10.2% year-on-year [7] - The average price of bananas is 3.98 yuan per jin, up 7.0% month-on-month and up 21.3% year-on-year [7]

gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn 综合晨报 2025年07月07日 (原油) 上周油价有所反弹，布伦特09合约涨3.27%，SC08合约涨1%。0PEC+8月增产计划54.8万桶/天进 一步提速，快速增产路径叠加能源转型背景下的石油需求降速，原油市场中期供需宽松、库存累积 的压力依然存在；但三季度旺季宏观及地缘因素存在阶段性利多支撑，7月9日对等关税豁免到期大 限临近，最终博弈结果参考美越贸易协议或总体弱于4月2日最初版本，伊核问题相关的中东地缘风 险亦未彻底消除，我们预估油价运行区间或较二季度抬升，布伦特以63-70美元/桶为主、INE SC以 480-510元/桶为主，下行风险在旺季过后扔将释放。 【铜】 上周五铜价收跌，市场关注美国关税进展，不确定性大,美国将前期关税执行时间延至8月1日。本 周继续关注沪铜交割月减仓变动。技术上，上周沪铜阻力8.1万。中长期趋势交易仍建议关注高位空 配。 【铝】 周五夜盘沪铝小幅回落,市场等待美国关税政策落地。上周铝市消费负反馈有所显现,铝锭铝棒小 幅累库，现货转向贴水，铝棒加工费维持极低水平。沪铝指数持仓处于近年高位体现市场分歧极 大,资金博弈 ...