Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Views - For building materials, the view is that it will operate in a range - bound and consolidating manner, with a downward - moving price center and a pessimistic market sentiment in a supply - demand weak situation. For aluminum, it is expected to operate in a short - term range, and attention should be paid to macro - sentiment and downstream start - up [2][3]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Building Materials - **Production Disruptions**: Yunnan - Guizhou short - process building steel producers' Spring Festival shutdown is expected to affect 741,000 tons of building steel output. In Anhui, 6 short - process steel mills, 1 stopped production on January 5, and most others will stop around mid - January, with an estimated daily output impact of 16,200 tons during the shutdown [1][2]. - **Real Estate Transaction**: From December 30, 2024, to January 5, 2025, the total transaction area of newly - built commercial housing in 10 key cities was 2.234 million square meters, a 40.3% week - on - week decrease and a 43.2% year - on - year increase [2]. - **Market Situation**: Building materials prices continued to decline, hitting a new low. In the supply - demand weak pattern, market sentiment is pessimistic, and winter storage is sluggish, with weak price support [2]. Aluminum - **Alumina**: As of Thursday, the total built - in capacity of metallurgical alumina in China is 110.32 million tons/year, and the operating capacity is 90.92 million tons/year. The weekly alumina operating rate increased by 2.02 percentage points to 82.41%. There are both restored and newly - added maintenance capacities in the South, and some northern alumina plants increased their operating capacity due to profit [2]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: In July, China's electrolytic aluminum output increased by 1.05% year - on - year and 3.11% month - on - month. The operating capacity increased slightly in July, mainly due to the start - up of the second - phase replacement project in Shandong - Yunnan. On July 31, the inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots in major consumption areas was 544,000 tons, an increase of 11,000 tons from Monday and 34,000 tons from last Thursday. The weekly出库 volume was 92,500 tons, a significant decrease of 15,700 tons from the previous week, reaching a new low this year [2]. - **Market Outlook**: In the off - season, inventory is accumulating, and demand pressure restricts the upside. Short - term aluminum prices are expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend [3].

Group 1 - The Canadian economy is significantly impacted by U.S. tariffs and trade barriers, particularly in sectors such as lumber, steel, aluminum, and automotive [1]

7月31日，创新国际实业集团有限公司（以下简称"创新国际"）向港交所更新上市申请，拟募资拓展海 外产能及绿色能源项目。这家深耕铝产业链上游的龙头企业，以84%的氧化铝自给率和88%的电力自给 率构筑成本护城河，却在关联交易占比超59.8%、铝价波动加剧的行业变局下面临关键考验。 一体化布局与成本控制：铝业巨头的核心竞争力 内蒙古霍林郭勒市的电解铝生产基地，是创新国际核心竞争力的缩影。根据CRU报告，该基地2024年 产量位列华北第四、全国第十二，支撑公司电解铝现金成本控制能力跻身国内前5%。通过"能源－氧化 铝精炼－电解铝冶炼"垂直整合，公司实现氧化铝自给率84%、电力自给率88%，显著高于行业平均水 平。 地理布局进一步强化成本优势。山东滨州生产基地临近铝土矿进口港口，运输成本较内陆同行低约 15%；内蒙古基地则受益于0.28元/度的工业电价，较东部沿海地区低40%。2023年启动的400兆瓦风电 和110兆瓦光伏项目，预计2025年并网后可将绿电占比提升至35%，推动吨铝碳排放降低18%。这种"火 电保供+绿电降本"的能源结构，使其在工信部4500万吨电解铝产能红线政策下占据先发优势。 技术迭代与合规生产 ...

智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研究报告称，中国宏桥(01378)为全产业链布局的全球一体化电解铝企 业，产能较高，有成本和规模优势。公司股息率高，旗下宏创控股并购重组后铝业核心资产将在A股上 市，叠加西芒杜铁矿放量有望增厚利润，进一步打开估值空间。预计公司25/26/27年每股收益分别为 2.37/2.45/2.52元，对应PE为8.1/7.9/7.6，首次覆盖给予"强烈推荐"投资评级。 股息率较高，主要资产将在A股上市进一步打开估值空间。公司自2011年上市以来坚持分红，2024年每 股股息161港仙，较2023年增长156%，按照当年最后一个交易日的收盘价计算，股息率为13.69%，按 2025年7月28日股价计算为6.89%，高于国内其他主要铝企，在港股各行业头部上市公司中也具备优 势。公司规模较大，毛利率和ROE在同业公司中较高，PE低于主要上市铝企，截至2025年7月28日为 8.25。 公司旗下主要电解铝生产企业宏拓实业将由公司控股子公司宏创控股并购，从而在A股上市，宏拓实业 有氧化铝产能1900万吨和电解铝产能646万吨，并购完成后将显著提升宏创控股的规模和盈利能力，同 时有利于打开中国宏桥的 ...

Core Viewpoint - China Hongqiao (01378) is a globally integrated electrolytic aluminum enterprise with a full industry chain layout, high production capacity, and cost advantages. The company has a high dividend yield, and the merger and restructuring of its subsidiary Hongchuang Holdings (002379) will lead to the listing of core aluminum assets in A-shares, further enhancing profit margins and valuation space. The expected earnings per share for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 2.37, 2.45, and 2.52 CNY, respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 8.1, 7.9, and 7.6, with a strong buy rating given for the first coverage [1]. Group 1 - China Hongqiao is a leading electrolytic aluminum producer with a comprehensive domestic and international industry chain layout, producing and selling aluminum products including electrolytic aluminum, alumina, and aluminum processing products, with a total electrolytic aluminum capacity of 6.46 million tons and alumina capacity of 21 million tons [2]. - The company has a stable gross profit margin, with a projected sales gross margin of 27.0% for 2024, significantly higher than comparable companies, and has maintained stable historical gross margins [2]. - The company is focused on future sustainability, relocating 203,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity from Shandong to Yunnan to increase the use of green electricity, with 148.8 thousand tons already in production as of Q1 2025 [2]. Group 2 - The electrolytic aluminum operating rate is high, with domestic inventory at a historical low of 51,000 tons as of July 24, 2025, supporting aluminum prices, while the operating rate exceeds 97% [3]. - The company has maintained a high dividend yield since its listing in 2011, with a projected dividend of 161 Hong Kong cents per share for 2024, a 156% increase from 2023, resulting in a dividend yield of 13.69% based on the last trading day’s closing price [3]. - The merger of the company's main electrolytic aluminum production enterprise, Hongtuo Industrial, with its subsidiary Hongchuang Holdings will significantly enhance the scale and profitability of Hongchuang Holdings, thereby opening up valuation space for China Hongqiao [4].

Core Viewpoint - China Aluminum Corporation announced the implementation of its 2024 annual profit distribution plan, which includes a cash dividend of RMB 0.135 per share for A-shares, approved by the shareholders' meeting on June 26, 2025 [2][4]. Distribution Plan - The total cash dividend distribution for the year 2024 is RMB 2,316,010,330.53, based on a total share capital of 17,155,632,078 shares [4]. - The cash dividend distribution applies to all A-share shareholders registered with China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited, Shanghai Branch, as of the close of trading on the day before the equity registration date [3]. Taxation and Payment Details - For individual shareholders holding unrestricted circulating shares, the cash dividend of RMB 0.135 per share is subject to different tax treatments based on the holding period [7]. - For shares held for over one year, the dividend is exempt from personal income tax; for shares held for one month or less, the tax rate is 20%; and for shares held between one month and one year, the effective tax rate is 10% [7]. - For qualified foreign institutional investors (QFII), a 10% withholding tax applies, resulting in a net cash dividend of RMB 0.1215 per share [8]. - Other institutional investors are responsible for their own tax payments, receiving the full cash dividend of RMB 0.135 per share [9].

Group 1 - The Hong Kong IPO market has seen a significant increase in activity, with 43 IPOs completed in the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of approximately 43% and total fundraising amounting to 106.71 billion HKD, a year-on-year increase of 688.54% [1] - Innovation International has updated its A1 prospectus and submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, coinciding with rising aluminum prices and a favorable IPO market environment [1] - The company focuses on high-value upstream segments of the aluminum industry chain, primarily engaged in the production and sales of electrolytic aluminum and alumina [1] Group 2 - As of May 2025, Innovation International has accelerated its green energy initiatives, achieving a total installed capacity of 510 megawatts, including 400 megawatts from wind power and 110 megawatts from solar projects, with most projects already operational [2] - The funds raised will primarily be used to expand overseas electrolytic aluminum smelting capacity, build green energy power stations, and optimize working capital to support global strategies and sustainable development goals [2] - The utilization rate of electrolytic aluminum smelting capacity in China has reached a historical high of 96%, with an expected annual demand gap exceeding one million tons by 2034, positioning Innovation International to capitalize on global aluminum industry opportunities [2]

Core Insights - The Brazilian Aluminum Association anticipates a loss of $210 million due to aluminum tariffs [1] Industry Impact - The imposition of aluminum tariffs is expected to significantly affect the financial performance of the aluminum sector in Brazil [1] - The projected loss of $210 million highlights the potential economic repercussions for companies operating within the aluminum industry [1]

浦银国际发布研报称，当前，本轮"反内卷"行情仍处在政策预期上升驱动的阶段，行情的持续性仍需观 察政策落地、产能出清、产能利用率提升、供需结构动态平衡和企业盈利改善等的情况。本轮"反内 卷"与供给侧改革仍存在较多不同之处，供给侧改革针对的行业主要以国企为主，而本轮"反内卷"针对 的大部分为新兴行业，行业较为分散，民企占比较高。预计本轮"反内卷"政策有望带动相关行业的供需 关系、企业盈利以及市场表现等多方面改善，那些处于供给出清前期的行业或具有更大的改善空间。 一是针对的行业范围不同。本轮"反内卷"涉及的行业更广泛，除了传统产业之外，还涵盖光伏、锂电、 新能源汽车、互联网电商等多个新兴产业，以中下游行业为主。 二是涉及行业中民企占比较大。供给侧改革针对的行业主要以国企为主，而本轮"反内卷"针对的大部分 为新兴行业，行业较为分散，民企占比较高。 三是本次采取的政策手段将更多元。由于"反内卷"相关行业独特性更强，明确量化目标、大范围采取行 政手段推动产能出清未必适用，采取的政策手段会因行业而异，落实难度不小。 四是两者的推进路径和侧重点不同。与供给侧改革核心在于化解过剩产能不同，本轮"反内卷"需要供需 两端协同发力， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on July 31, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity's trend is affected by factors such as macro - economic policies, geopolitical events, and supply - demand relationships [2][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: FOMC's decline releases hawkish expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] - **Silver**: Experiences a high - level decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][5][10] Base Metals - **Copper**: The implementation of US copper import tariffs puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12][14] - **Zinc**: Shows a narrow - range oscillation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15][17] - **Lead**: An increase in inventory puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][18][19] - **Tin**: Ranges within an interval, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21][25] - **Aluminum**: Experiences a slight oscillation; Alumina's price weakens; Cast aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum. Aluminum's trend strength is 0, alumina's is - 1, and casting aluminum alloy's is 0 [2][27][29] - **Nickel**: Macroeconomic expectations determine the direction, and fundamentals limit the elasticity, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Stainless Steel**: Macroeconomic sentiment dominates the margin, and the real - world situation still needs to be repaired, with a trend strength of 0 [2][30][34] - **Carbonate Lithium**: Has a wide - range oscillation, and the mine - end disturbance has not materialized, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][35][37] - **Industrial Silicon**: Sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to market sentiment changes, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38][40] Energy - **Iron Ore**: Supported by macro - expectations, shows a relatively strong oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][41] - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The sentiment is realized, with a wide - range oscillation. Both have a trend strength of 0 [2][52][55] - **Power Coal**: Daily consumption recovers, and the price stabilizes with an oscillation, with a trend strength of 0 [2][57][60] - **Fuel Oil**: The upward trend continues, and it remains strong in the short - term. Low - sulfur fuel oil's futures price shows a relatively strong oscillation, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market continues to rise [2][4][52] Chemicals - **PTA**: Supported by cost, with a positive spread in monthly contracts [2] - **MEG**: The unilateral trend remains weak, with a reverse spread in monthly contracts [2] - **Rubber**: Oscillates [2][32] - **Synthetic Rubber**: Weak in the short - term, but the downside space narrows [2][34] - **Asphalt**: Follows the strong upward trend of crude oil with small - step increases [2][36] - **LLDPE**: The trend still faces pressure [2][38] - **PP**: The spot price oscillates with light trading volume [2][39] - **Caustic Soda**: Attention should be paid to delivery pressure [2][40] - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates weakly [2][41] - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet remains stable [2][43] - **Methanol**: Oscillates under pressure [2][44] - **Urea**: The pressure gradually increases [2][46] - **Styrene**: Profits are compressed [2][48] - **Soda Ash**: There are few changes in the spot market [4][49] - **PVC**: Weakly oscillates in the short - term [4][50] Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Supported in the short - term by the positive sentiment of crude oil and macro - economy [4][59] - **Soybean Oil**: Oscillates at a high level, and attention should be paid to Sino - US trade progress [4][59] - **Soybean Meal**: US soybeans close lower, limiting the rebound of domestic soybean meal [4][61] - **Soybean**: Oscillates weakly [4][61] - **Corn**: Attention should be paid to the spot market [4][63] - **Sugar**: Oscillates within an interval [4][65] - **Cotton**: The sentiment cools down, and Zhengzhou cotton futures decline [4][66] - **Eggs**: The spot price weakens [4][68] - **Hogs**: Attention should be paid to whether the early - month spot expectations can be realized [4][69] - **Peanuts**: The old crop has support at the bottom [4][70] Others - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Hold 10 short positions [4][53] - **Short - fiber and Bottle - chip**: Oscillate in the short - term [4][56] - **Offset Printing Paper**: Oscillates at a low level with limited upward momentum [4][57] - **Pure Benzene**: Oscillates relatively strongly [4][58] - **Log**: Oscillates repeatedly [2][61]