Core Viewpoint - Lanhua Ketech (600123.SH) is expected to report a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company ranging from -550 million to -440 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, representing a significant decrease of 12.68 billion to 11.58 billion yuan compared to the previous year, which translates to a year-on-year decline of 176.64% to 161.31% [1] Group 1 - The primary reason for the expected loss in 2025 is the continuous decline in market prices for the company's main products, coal and chemical fertilizers, due to macroeconomic and industry cycle impacts, leading to a substantial reduction in operating profits [1] - The company is undergoing capacity integration and upgrades at its wholly-owned subsidiary, Lanhua Coal Chemical Company, to promote energy-saving and environmental upgrades, which requires impairment provisions for some outdated facilities [1] - The investment income has significantly decreased due to the expiration of the operating period of the company's associate, Yamei Danning Energy Company, which will cease production in mid-May [1]

Group 1 - The company Lanhua Kecai expects a net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company for the fiscal year 2025 to be between -550 million to -440 million yuan, indicating a significant loss compared to the previous year, with a decrease of approximately 12.68 billion to 11.58 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 176.64% to 161.31% [1] - The main reasons for the expected loss include a decline in market prices for key products such as coal and chemical fertilizers due to macroeconomic and industry cycle impacts, leading to a substantial reduction in main business profits [1] - The company plans to implement cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures, accelerate the upgrade and transformation of its coal chemical industry, and leverage the advantages of its location at Jiajing Port to extend its industrial chain and improve the profitability of its coal business [1]

Core Viewpoint - Lanhua Ketech (600123) is expected to report a net loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company ranging from 440 million to 550 million yuan for the fiscal year 2025, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The primary reason for the expected loss in 2025 is the continuous decline in market prices for the company's main products, coal and chemical fertilizers, which has significantly reduced operating profits [1] - The company is undergoing capacity integration and upgrades at its wholly-owned subsidiary, Lanhua Coal Chemical Company, which requires impairment provisions for some outdated facilities [1] - The investment income has notably decreased due to the expiration of the operating period of the company's associate, Yamei Danning Energy Company, which will cease operations in mid-May [1]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant decline in net profit attributable to shareholders for the fiscal year 2025, projecting a loss between 550 million to 440 million yuan, which represents a decrease of 1.268 billion to 1.158 billion yuan compared to the previous year, equating to a year-on-year decline of 176.64% to 161.31% [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The projected net profit loss for 2025 is attributed to ongoing downward pressure on market prices for key products such as coal and chemical fertilizers, leading to a substantial reduction in main business profits [1] - The company is also facing additional financial strain due to the need to account for asset impairment provisions related to the upgrade and integration of production capacity at its wholly-owned subsidiary, Lanhua Coal Chemical [1] Group 2: Operational Challenges - The operational challenges are compounded by the cessation of operations at the company's equity investee, Yamei Danning Energy, which has reached the end of its operational term and ceased production in mid-May, resulting in a noticeable decline in investment income [1]

华泰证券指出，资金面上，外资与南向资金持续流入，4Q公募港股仓位降至23%，潜在抛压大幅减 弱，IPO市场募资和解禁同样放缓。情绪指数回到中性区间，看涨预期升温。该行认为一季度延续反弹 依然可期，看重空间，淡化斜率。 蓝筹股表现 港股今日小幅高开后走低，恒科指数盘中一度跌近2%，恒指则全天走势反复，尾盘成功翻红。截至收 盘，恒生指数涨0.06%或16.01点，报26765.52点，全日成交额为2616.99亿港元；恒生国企指数跌 0.15%，报9147.21点；恒生科技指数跌1.24%，报5725.99点。 热门赛道，而是清晰划定"真价值"与"伪炒作"的边界。经济日报此前也发文称，勿让概念炒作带歪商业 航天。 中国神华（601088）(01088)领涨蓝筹。截至收盘，涨4.42%，报42.5港元，成交额5.36亿港元，贡献恒 指9.34点。申万宏源1月26日研报指出，需求端，寒潮来袭，中东部地区气温偏低。该行预计春节前安 监趋严，展望后市，节前冷空气扰动仍存，预计日耗高位运行、将支撑动力煤价格。 其他蓝筹股方面，紫金矿业（601899）(02899)涨4.35%，报42.18港元，贡献恒指17点；中海油(00 ...

Core Viewpoint - The extreme cold weather in Inner Mongolia and Heilongjiang has posed significant challenges to energy supply, prompting local energy companies to enhance their operational readiness to ensure heating for households during winter [1][3]. Energy Supply Challenges - The temperature has dropped below -40°C in some areas, creating a severe test for energy supply [3]. - National Energy Investment Group's Baiyinhuamon East Coal Mine has entered a supply guarantee mode, maintaining over 95% equipment utilization and ensuring high coal stock levels to meet winter demands [3]. Operational Readiness - The production department of the Hweicheng Thermal Power Plant in Inner Mongolia has implemented 24-hour monitoring and inspections of heating facilities to ensure stable operations during the cold snap [5]. - The Shen Dong Coal Mine has established a comprehensive supply guarantee system, focusing on stable underground production and smooth surface operations [6]. Coal Production Efficiency - The coal mining team at the Shen Dong Coal Mine is utilizing intelligent simulation technology to optimize coal cutting processes, achieving a daily average output of over 15,000 tons with a 98% equipment uptime [12]. - The team emphasizes safety and efficiency, contributing to energy supply stability despite challenging working conditions [13]. Transportation and Logistics - The Hohhot Railway Bureau has enhanced coal transportation capabilities, ensuring over 420,000 tons of coal are transported daily to meet electricity demands across 29 provinces [15]. - The coal transportation system has implemented measures to prevent freezing, ensuring smooth operations during the cold weather [16]. Clean Energy Initiatives - The use of clean energy for heating is increasing, with the city of Rongcheng in Shandong utilizing nuclear energy for the first time this winter, following similar initiatives in Haiyang and Rushan [17]. - The "Warm Nuclear No. 1" project employs a unique heat transfer method, providing stable heating to residents while ensuring safety [19]. - This project has a heating capacity of approximately 270 megawatts, covering an area of 6.75 million square meters and benefiting nearly 300,000 residents [21][23].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market opened slightly higher but declined, with the Hang Seng Index closing up 0.06% at 26,765.52 points and a total turnover of HKD 261.699 billion [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index fell by 1.24% to 5,725.99 points, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.15% to 9,147.21 points [1] - Foreign and southbound capital continued to flow into the market, with public fund positions in Hong Kong stocks dropping to 23% in Q4, indicating reduced potential selling pressure [1] Blue Chip Performance - China Shenhua (01088) led blue-chip stocks, rising 4.42% to HKD 42.5, contributing 9.34 points to the Hang Seng Index [2] - Other notable blue-chip performers included Zijin Mining (02899) up 4.35%, CNOOC (00883) up 4.01%, while Xinyi Solar (00968) and Tingyi (00322) saw declines of 5.85% and 4.59% respectively [2] Sector Highlights - Large tech stocks showed mixed performance, with Tencent rising 0.76% and Alibaba falling nearly 2% [3] - Precious metals and other non-ferrous metals continued to rise, with gold, copper, and aluminum showing strength [3] - The oil and gas sector was active, influenced by geopolitical tensions and cold weather, with Shandong Molong (00568) up 4.89% and CNOOC (00883) up 4.01% [4] Precious Metals - International gold prices reached a historical high, surpassing USD 5,100 per ounce, driven by central bank purchases and geopolitical tensions [4] - Goldman Sachs raised its year-end gold price forecast from USD 4,900 to USD 5,400 per ounce, anticipating monthly purchases of 60 tons by central banks [4] Popular Stocks - Ark Health (06086) surged 33.22% after announcing a positive earnings forecast for 2025, expecting revenue of HKD 3.5-3.55 billion, a 30% year-on-year increase [8] - Modern Dental (03600) rose 16.05% following a significant share acquisition by Hillhouse Capital [9] - Zhizhu (02513) increased by 13.02%, supported by strong technological capabilities and a robust ecosystem [10] - Lao Pu Gold (06181) gained 7.8% due to increased consumer demand during the Spring Festival [11] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) reached a new high, with forecasts of record profits in 2025 [12]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For coke, as of the week ending January 23, the total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110,210 tons, a slight weekly increase of 40 tons. The daily hot - metal output of 247 steel mills was 228,100 tons, a slight weekly increase of 90 tons. This week, the coke inventories of steel mills and ports both increased. The total inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 113,100 tons week - on - week to 6,616,400 tons, and the available days of coke increased by 0.38 days to 12.35 days. Overall, there is no obvious positive in the coke's fundamentals, and the support from coking coal on the cost side is also limited. The main contract will remain in the low - level range for the time being [5][31]. - For coking coal, the production is stable, imports remain at a high level, and demand is still sluggish, with no improvement in the fundamentals. As of the week ending January 23, the daily output of clean coal from 523 coking coal mines in the country was 770,000 tons, a slight weekly increase of 100 tons and 36,000 tons higher than the same period last year. From January 1 to 20, the total number of Mongolian coal trucks passing through the Ganqimaodu Port was 19,890, a month - on - month decrease of 24.9% and a year - on - year increase of 25.4%. As of the week ending January 23, the total daily coke output of sample independent coking plants and steel - mill coking plants was 110,210 tons, a slight weekly increase of 40 tons [5][32]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Industry Information - As of December 31, 2025, there are 80 legally - operating and under - construction coal mines in Shandong Province, with a total production capacity of 114.37 million tons per year. Among them, there is 1 under - construction coal mine with a construction scale of 450,000 tons per year, and 79 operating coal mines with a registered production capacity of 113.92 million tons per year [7]. - On January 26, an online auction of coking coal was held in the Liulin market of Lvliang. The starting price of high - sulfur coking clean coal A11, S≤1.85 - 2.0, G85 was 1,100 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 1,243 yuan/ton, a decrease of 69 yuan/ton compared with the previous auction on January 19. The starting price of high - sulfur coking clean coal A10.5, S≤2.35 - 2.5, G85 was 1,050 yuan/ton, and the average transaction price was 1,225 yuan/ton, a decrease of 55 yuan/ton compared with the previous auction on January 12 [8]. 3.2 Spot Market | Variety | Current Value | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Change Compared with the Same Period | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke (Rizhao Port, quasi - first - grade, FOB) | 1,470 | 0.00% | - 3.29% | - 13.02% | - 7.55% | | Coke (Qingdao Port, quasi - first - grade, ex - warehouse) | 1,450 | - 2.03% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 5.84% | | Coking Coal (Ganqimaodu Port, Mongolian coal) | 1,240 | 2.06% | 9.73% | 5.08% | 7.83% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Australian - produced) | 1,560 | - 1.89% | 3.31% | 4.70% | 4.70% | | Coking Coal (Jingtang Port, Shanxi - produced) | 1,780 | 1.71% | 4.71% | 16.34% | 19.46% | [9] 3.3 Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Daily Change | High Price | Low Price | Trading Volume | Volume Difference | Open Interest | Open Interest Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | 1 | 1,719 | 0.44% | 1,737 | 1,701.5 | 15,987 | - 6,000 | 36,570 | - 1,308 | | Coking Coal | 1 | 1,159.5 | 1.35% | 1,167 | 1,138.5 | 886,410 | - 191,465 | 492,406 | - 8,590 | [13] 3.4 Related Charts - **Coke Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of 230 independent coking plants, ports, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory from 2021 to 2026 [13][14][15]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: Charts show the inventory trends of mine - mouth coking coal, all - sample independent coking plants, ports, and 247 sample steel mills from 2021 to 2026 [18][20][21]. - **Other Charts**: Include domestic steel - mill production (blast furnace operating rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire and screw procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (clean coal inventory and operating rate), and coking - plant operation (ton - coke profit and coke - oven capacity utilization) [26][28][31]. 3.5 Market Outlook - Coke: The fundamentals have no obvious positive factors, and the cost - side support from coking coal is limited. The main contract will remain in the low - level range [31]. - Coking Coal: Production is stable, imports are high, demand is sluggish, and the fundamentals have not improved [32].

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index slightly up by 0.06% to 26,765.52, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell by 0.15% to 9,147.21, and the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped significantly by 1.24% to 5,725.99 [1][2]. Sector Performance - Technology stocks experienced a downward trend, with major players like XPeng Motors down over 4%, NIO, Li Auto, SMIC, Kuaishou, and Baidu down over 3%, while Tencent and JD.com showed slight gains [4]. - Precious metals surged, with international gold prices surpassing $5,100 per ounce, leading to a significant rise in gold and silver stocks, notably China Silver Group which increased by over 19% [7][8]. - Energy stocks, including oil and coal, performed well, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation rising over 4% and China Shenhua Energy increasing by over 4% [9][10]. - The commercial aerospace sector faced declines, with Asia Pacific Satellite down over 11% and other related stocks following suit [6]. Individual Stock Movements - Notable gainers included China Silver Group (+19.12%), Shenglong International (+14.46%), and China Shenhua Energy (+4.42%) [11][12]. - Conversely, significant losers included Asia Pacific Satellite (-17.53%) and XPeng Motors (-4.17%) [5][6]. Investment Insights - Long-term outlook for energy stocks remains positive due to geopolitical uncertainties and rising oil demand forecasts, with IEA projecting an increase of 930,000 barrels per day in global oil demand by 2026 [9][10]. - The coal sector is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance over the next 3-5 years, with high-quality coal companies showing strong cash flow and dividend potential [10]. Capital Movements - Southbound funds recorded a net sell of HKD 826 million, with the majority coming from the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock connect [16]. Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the Hong Kong market has the potential for valuation recovery and sentiment improvement, although upward momentum may be constrained by high global interest rates and limited expectations for rate cuts [18].

Market Performance - The Hong Kong stock market showed mixed performance with the Hang Seng Index up by 0.06% closing at 26,765.52 points, while the Tech Index fell by 1.24% to 5,725.99 points, and the National Enterprises Index decreased by 0.15% to 9,147.21 points [1][2]. Sector Performance - Traditional cyclical stocks such as oil, coal, and non-ferrous metals performed strongly, indicating a shift in market focus towards value assets. In contrast, previously popular sectors like commercial aerospace and brain-computer interface technologies experienced a pullback [2][11]. Oil Sector - Oil stocks saw significant gains, with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) rising by 4.01%, China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation (Sinopec) increasing by 3.68%, and China Oilfield Services Limited up by 3.23%. This strength is attributed to a recent extreme cold wave in North America, which caused a 63% spike in U.S. natural gas prices from January 20 to 22, subsequently boosting prices of light hydrocarbons and supporting domestic petrochemical prices [4][5]. Coal Sector - Coal stocks also showed robust performance, with Mongolian Energy up by 5.80%, China Shenhua Energy rising by 4.42%, and China Qinfa up by 3.74%. The increase in coal prices is linked to heightened demand due to cold weather, with daily coal output from the Bohai Rim ports averaging 1.682 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 14.2 tons or 9.19% [6][7]. Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Non-ferrous metal stocks were active, with Rusal rising by 12.31%, China Nonferrous Mining increasing by 9.87%, and Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining up by 7.44%. Citigroup's report indicates a structural bull market in aluminum, predicting a 61,000-ton structural deficit by early 2026 and raising the price target for aluminum from $2,950 to $3,400 per ton [8][9]. Gold Market - Morgan Stanley's research indicates that gold prices have surpassed their forecast of $4,750 per ounce for the second half of the year, with expectations of further increases due to geopolitical risks, central bank purchases, and ETF inflows. A bullish scenario suggests a target price of $5,700 per ounce for the second half [10]. Weakness in Tech Sectors - Commercial aerospace stocks faced collective declines, with Asia Pacific Satellite down by 11.53%, Goldwind Technology down by 7.14%, and JunDa Co. down by 6.56%. This adjustment is attributed to short-term profit-taking pressures [11]. Brain-computer interface stocks also showed weakness, with Nanjing Panda Electronics down by 6.15% and Brainstorming Technology down by 5.35%, partly due to a recent share placement announcement [13][14]. Individual Stock Movements - Zhizhuo (02513.HK) surged by 13.02% following a significant increase in subscription service users after the launch of its flagship model GLM-4.7, indicating strong market interest in its AI capabilities [15]. Lao Pu Gold (06181.HK) rose by 7.80% due to increased customer traffic during a promotional event, with expectations of substantial revenue growth during the upcoming Spring Festival [16].