淮风入夜，北美腹地的田埂上堆着一垛一垛豆粒。割台刚过，潮气还没散尽，有的豆荚被碾碎，散出一股淡淡的青草味。农场主站在地头，盯着远处迟迟不 来的卡车。有人把手机举到脸前，眼眶发红，几乎哽咽地对镜头说：要把中国这个大客户争回来，否则今年真要血亏。视频发出去，许多人看了心里发紧 ——这些堆在地里的东西，是他们一年的汗水，若是卖不出去，可能真的会烂在泥土里。 农田的静默与短信的喧哗 与田间的沉默形成反差的，是一段在华盛顿走漏出来的短信。据传，有人拍到美国农业部长罗林斯发给财政部长贝森特的信息，话说得很直白：昨天我们救 助了阿根廷，作为回报，阿根廷取消了谷物出口关税，并向中国出售了一批大豆。紧罗林斯又提醒，这一整套价值200亿美元的救助计划，会伤害美国农 民。 短短几句，把一连串原本在幕后的因果关系摆在了明面上：美国放出援助，阿根廷松开出口税阀门，中国买到了更便宜的大豆，美国农民立刻感到被顶在了 价格墙边。政策在纸面上行走，最终却落在一粒粒豆子的去向上。 订单转向与价格的磁力 这背后还有一层结构性因素：美国自上世纪末以来，联邦层面不再维持庞大的公共谷物储备，更多依靠期货市场、保险制度与私人仓储来分摊风险。期货可 以锁定 ...

事情的起因是美国与中国爆发了关税战，因此今年至今中国没有购买美国大豆，而在进口过程中严格审查大豆的来源，导致美国的大豆无法通过第三国转售 到中国。每年秋季，美国正是大豆丰收的季节，往年这个时候，中国早已下单购买了大量美国大豆，而美国农民几乎将自己一半的产量卖给了中国。但今 年，由于没有与中国的交易，农民们感到非常焦虑。 就在这一时刻，米莱宣布临时取消了阿根廷对大豆、玉米、小麦及其副产品的出口关税，以刺激出口。结果，短短两天内，这一政策就促使阿根廷的大豆销 售额激增了70亿美元。美国农民看到这一幕，不禁质疑特朗普政府的"美国优先"政策，认为自己辛辛苦苦种植的大豆被阿根廷抢走了，而特朗普却在向阿根 廷提供巨额援助。 更令美国农民愤慨的是，虽然中国没有购买美国大豆，却大量进口了阿根廷大豆。几天前，有报道称中国下单了约20船阿根廷大豆。美国农民特别气愤的 是，特朗普政府不久前曾与阿根廷达成了一项价值200亿美元的货币互换协议，并计划通过债券购买来支持阿根廷经济，以帮助阿根廷总统米莱应对选举压 力和稳定金融市场。 美国农民对此非常失望，甚至有一些人开始后悔曾支持特朗普。有报道称，特朗普的铁杆支持者——农民们认为自己被背 ...

中美关税战的冲击，最先、也最深刻地显现在美国的广袤农田里。看似是一场美国政府以"强硬"姿态挑 起的较量，却让自己的农民成了最大的受害者。 与此同时，全球市场格局悄然变化。中国趁机加大与巴西、阿根廷等国的合作，进一步分散进口来源， 甚至推动粮食自给。美国在大豆这一领域逐渐"掉队"，国际话语权被削弱。而美国国内却普遍存在一种 误解，认为凭借庞大的消费市场，可以肆意施压他国。但事实早在2020年就被联邦贸易委员会验证：一 旦出口受阻，美国农产品必然遭到议价打压，首当其冲的就是大豆。 过去半年里，特朗普政府将关税当作谈判的主要筹码，认为能迫使中国让步。然而，中国选择了坚决反 制，不仅没有退缩，还精准打击了美国农业这一核心产业。美国大豆协会主席戴维·拉格兰直言，特朗 普的贸易政策正在让农民付出惨重代价——出口额骤减，市场信任度下滑，仅大豆出口对华一项就蒸发 了数十亿美元。 对美国农民而言，中国市场是"救命稻草"。失去这个最大买家，打击之大难以形容。虽然部分农民开始 质疑和批评，但依然有人抱着幻想，认为这场贸易战能让他们摆脱对中国的依赖，换取更好的国际地 "九月到了，中国的大豆订单却迟迟不见踪影。"在堆满仓库的大豆堆旁， ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The strategies previously suggested in the semi - annual report for corn, hog, and egg futures have been verified by the market. Corn futures showed a downward trend, hog futures first rose and then declined, and egg futures also trended downwards [6][9]. - For corn, the short - term price may remain weak due to the approaching peak of new grain supply, while the medium - term presents a wide - range trading opportunity, and the long - term maintains a pricing logic related to import substitution and planting cost [124]. - The hog market is in the bottom - grinding phase. The short - term is affected by strong supply and weak demand, the medium - term has supply increase expectations, and the long - term supply situation depends on factors such as sow inventory and production efficiency [127]. - For eggs, the short - to medium - term prices are under pressure due to the end of the holiday stocking period, and the long - term supply pressure may re - emerge if the chicken culling rate is lower than expected [134]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Corn Macro Logic - Internationally, the macro - driving force is gradually weakening; domestically, it is mainly reflected in industrial policies [124]. Industrial Logic - The industry has entered a passive inventory - building cycle, with attention on policies such as reserve acquisitions, auctions of targeted rice/imported corn, and grain import policies [124]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: Globally, the corn supply situation is tightening, while in the US, there is significant supply pressure. In China, there is a long - term corn supply - demand gap, and the pricing logic based on substitutes remains. In the medium - term, factors like new - year yield and planting cost are key, and in the short - term, the new grain price started high and then dropped, with the upcoming peak supply in October [124]. - **Demand**: In 2025, the hog production capacity increased, and the存栏 of egg - laying and meat - producing poultry remained high, providing rigid support for corn consumption. Deep - processing consumption is relatively stable [124]. Variety Viewpoint - Short - term: The new grain price may remain weak. The lower support on the futures market is around the planting cost of new - season corn, and the upper pressure is related to the wheat - corn price difference. - Medium - term: Conduct band trading based on new - season corn factors, and focus on band - buying opportunities supported by reserve policies. - Long - term: Maintain the pricing logic of import substitution and planting cost, and pay attention to import policies and grain auctions [124]. Trading Strategy - Adopt an interval trading strategy in the medium - to long - term. In the fourth quarter, focus on band - buying opportunities supported by planting cost around 2100 yuan/ton [124]. Hog Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to the interaction between CPI and hog prices, and focus on industrial policy directions [125]. Industrial Logic - Under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies, the structure of the hog - breeding market may change. Market share is concentrating on leading enterprises, but the implementation of sow - reduction policies and its impact on supply are still uncertain [125]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: In the fourth quarter, the supply will continue to increase. The supply pressure in the first half of 2026 remains significant, and it may start to ease in the second half of 2026, depending on factors such as MSY and slaughter weight [126]. - **Demand**: The downstream demand for hogs is relatively stable, showing seasonal patterns. The increase in consumption during the end - of - year season may be limited [126]. Market Viewpoint - The hog price is in the bottom - grinding phase. The short - term is pressured by strong supply and weak demand, the medium - term has supply increase expectations, and the long - term supply situation depends on sow inventory and production efficiency. The possibility and amplitude of a seasonal rebound in the fourth quarter depend on the slaughter weight [127]. Operation Suggestion - The hog market is in the second half of the second half of the small cycle of passive capacity reduction due to diseases. The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. For contracts before 2605, the supply is mainly determined by supply - demand logic, while for contracts after 2605, it depends on the implementation of capacity - reduction policies [128]. Egg Macro Logic - Domestically, pay attention to raw material prices, CPI changes, and the impact of meat and vegetable prices in the second half of the year [132]. Industrial Logic - The egg - laying chicken breeding industry has been profitable for four years, and the scale - up rate continues to increase, which will change the industry's structure and production efficiency [132]. Supply and Demand Logic - **Supply**: The egg - laying chicken inventory is at a high level, and the supply pressure persists. The current high inventory and the low chicken culling rate may lead to continued supply pressure in the fourth quarter [132]. - **Demand**: After the pre - holiday stocking period, the supply - demand situation is expected to be loose from October to November. The consumption support for egg prices may be weakened due to the extended holiday stocking period [133]. Variety Viewpoint - Short - to medium - term: The end of holiday stocking leads to slower sales and rising inventory, pressuring egg prices. Long - term: Pay attention to the chicken culling rate, as the current low culling rate may cause supply pressure to re - emerge in the fourth quarter [134]. Trading Strategy - The futures market shows a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength. Before large - scale chicken culling, adopt a short - selling strategy for near - term contracts. Egg - breeding enterprises can also consider selling - hedging opportunities for contracts 2607 and 2608 [135].

以前中国是最大买家，大单说来就来，可现在中国转头去了南美。而美国这边，特朗普急着想让中国重 新买单，另一边中国一句话撂下，提出了条件。 美国大豆现在正经历一次"出口危机"，仓库空位见底，农民眼看着整片田里的豆子没人要，心里憋着一 股火。 美国想保农业州的票仓，中国则不愿再配合。大豆出口的背后，其实是特朗普关税政策的影响终于显现 了。 卖不出去的大豆，一堆堆地摆着，农民干着急 这段时间，美国农民的日子确实不太好过。尤其是那些靠种大豆为生的中西部农场，眼看着收成不错， 可仓库却塞得满满的，没人来收。 说到底，是买家少了，尤其是最重要的那个客户——中国，已经不怎么买账了。 以前中国买得多，那是因为美国大豆供货稳，运输也方便。但现在情况变了，买的人不来了，价格也撑 不住了，农民种出来的豆子成了"滞销货"。 白宫虽然说给了补贴，但补贴这东西，说到底就是个数字，真正能到农民手里的，远比宣传得要少得 多。 农民嘴上不说，心里其实很明白：这不是市场出问题，而是受到了特朗普政策的极大影响。 中国说得明白：先撤关税，不然别指望我们买 中方的态度其实一直都很清楚，不是不能买，而是不接受不公平的交易。 美国当初加上来的那些关税，直接 ...

Core Insights - Despite a record agricultural yield in the U.S. this year, farmers are experiencing a significant decline in sentiment due to market access issues and falling prices, primarily attributed to the ongoing trade war [1][2][3] Group 1: Farmer Sentiment and Economic Indicators - The Purdue University and Chicago Mercantile Exchange's agricultural economic index shows a continuous decline in farmer sentiment for July and August [1] - Farmers are facing record-high expenses before the harvest, while the prices they can sell their crops for are lower than previous years [2] - The trade war has led to increased costs for agricultural machinery and fertilizers, further straining farmers' financial situations [1][3] Group 2: Impact of Trade Policies - The U.S. soybean exports to China have ceased since May, marking the first time in nearly 30 years that China has not purchased American soybeans [3] - Other countries, such as Brazil and Argentina, are capitalizing on the U.S. trade war by increasing their market share in China [3] - Farmers are expressing frustration with the government's trade policies, which they believe are detrimental to their market access and profitability [6] Group 3: Government Response and Farmer Needs - The U.S. government has made promises to farmers regarding trade agreements and subsidies, but these commitments have not been fulfilled [6] - Farmers are demanding market access rather than financial compensation, emphasizing the need for a stable market environment [6][5] - The political implications of the agricultural crisis are significant, especially in key Republican states ahead of the upcoming midterm elections [5]

油脂油料早报 研究中心农产品团队 2025/09/30 隔 夜 市 场 信 息 ： USDA：截至9月28日当周美国大豆收割率符合预期，优良率高于预期 美国农业部（USDA）在每周作物生长报告中公布称，截至2025年9月28日当周，美国大豆收割率为19%，符合市场预 期，前一周为9%，去年同期为24%，五年均值为20%。 截至2025年9月28日当周，美国大豆优良率为62%，高于市场预期的60%，前一周为61%，上年同期为64%。 截至当周，美国大豆落叶率为79%，上一周为61%，上年同期为79%，五年均值为77%。 USDA：9月25日止当周美国大豆出口检验量为593,956吨，符合预期 美国农业部公布的周度出口检验报告显示，截至2025年9月25日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为593,956吨，此前市场 预估为45-90万吨，前一周修正后为565,630吨，初值为484,116吨。 截至2024年9月26日当周，美国大豆出口检验量为683,341吨。 本作物年度迄今，美国大豆出口检验量累计为2,246,104吨，上一年度同期为1,929,770吨。 美国大豆的市场年度自9月1日开始。 AgRural：巴西大豆 ...

南方财经 21世纪经济报道特约撰稿 王应贵、黄熠 9月26日，上周五，芝加哥商品交易所集团（CME）大豆12月份期货价格收于1013.75美分/蒲式耳（约27.216公斤）。截至上周 五，大豆今年价格微涨0.32%，但过去三年内大豆价格大幅下跌了28.63%；玉米12月份期货价格为422美分/蒲式耳，今年以来累 计下跌7.96%，三年内跌幅达36.97%。 如图所示，自2022年创下历史新高以来，CME大豆和玉米期货主力合约价格指数（令2018年2月的大豆价格1055.00和玉米价格 374.5等于100）持续呈现缓慢下跌的趋势，目前价格指数已回落至几年前的水平。 美国作为农业大国，在全球农产品市场中具有强大的竞争力。大豆和玉米在美国出口贸易中也占据重要地位。2024年，大豆出口 额在美国商品总出口中排名第15位，而玉米出口额则排名第22位。2017年，在特朗普政府发起贸易摩擦之前，美国的大豆出口额 为215.3亿美元，排名第12；玉米出口额为95.8亿美元，排名第25。此外，美国中西部州多为农业州，在历次选举中都是共和党的 基本盘，农场经营状况和农产主满意度甚至可能影响选举走向，农业对美国政治的影响力可见一 ...

安如泰山 信守承诺 黑龙江新季大豆玉米调研简析 塔河县 西北线 东北线 松修区 逊克县 国投期货研究院 本次大连商品交易所组织的2025黑龙江新季大豆玉米秋季调研活动分为两条线路，西北线的行程为哈尔滨一 绥化-青冈-海伦--北安-五大连池-嫩江-讷河-大庆，东北线的行程为哈尔滨-佳木斯-宝泉岭-富锦-宝清-虎林- 密山-牡丹江，基本涵盖了黑龙江省大豆玉米各主产区。 笔者参加的是西北线，线路上国产大豆要素相对更多。调研因主要走访了大型国有农场，贸易商，深加工 企业，饲料企业，种粮大户等。本次活动让分析师能深入种植、贸易、加工一线，获取了第一手的产业数据。 直观感受到2025年新粮种植结构变化，更深刻认识到期货工具在稳产保供中的关键作用。在此，先对大连商品 交易所以及各组织单位,被调研单位及个人表示感谢!下面我们分别从国产大豆和玉米的角度进行阐述。 本报告版权属于国投期货有限公司 不可作为投资依据，转载请注明出处 1 国产大豆篇 受政策要求和补贴影响,2025产季黑龙江国产大豆种植面积总的来看是增加的,仅有极少地区提及受政策 要求下调种植面积。单产问题上,东西部略有差异,西部地区单产总体保持稳定,其中北安,海伦, ...

· 专题报告 新陈交替，震荡筑底 观点： C01 震荡偏弱 报告日期 2025-09-29 季度报告 若无明显政策和天气变化，新季玉米卖压预期和种植成本下降的情 况下，预期 C01 将震荡筑底，关注贸易商囤粮节奏和政策变化。待新粮 卖压进一步兑现后，C09 可择机逢低多配。 ⚫ 风险提示 天气、政策 往期相关报告 | 1.新陈交替，盘面重回弱势 | | --- | | 2025.09.16 | | 2.新季玉米卖压预期，盘面弱势寻 | | 底 2025.08.25 | | 3.进口玉米拍卖消息冲击，盘面承 | | 压 2025.07.02 | 1 D ⚫ 全球主要出口国玉米库消比回升： 在种植面积上调和高单产预期 下，2025/26 年度美玉米库消比由 2024/25 年度的 8.65%上调至 13.14%；全球主要的玉米出口国库消比由 7.71%上调至 9.73%。 ⚫ 新季玉米预期丰产，种植成本下降：2025/26 年度全国种植面积预 期同比略减，由于种植期天气条件适宜，预期单产水平同比明显 提升，全国整体维持丰产预期。新季玉米集港成本预期进一步下 降至 1950-2100 元/吨附近。目前盘面距离成本线 ...