Core Viewpoint - The evolving situation in the Middle East is significantly impacting global markets, creating new investment opportunities linked to supply shocks and price fluctuations [1] Group 1: Oil Price Impact - Industries with profits directly correlated to oil prices are expected to be key beneficiaries of rising oil prices, categorized into three types: profit enhancement from upstream energy sectors, demand increase in alternative energy sources, and cost-driven price increases in agricultural products [1] - The current surge in commodity prices is driving a rebound in PPI year-on-year growth, indicating a significant profit restructuring rather than a uniform benefit across all industries [2] Group 2: Seasonal Price Trends - The focus on price increases is also attributed to traditional price hike periods in March-April and August-October, which correspond to peak economic seasons, suggesting potential for excess returns [4] - The impact of geopolitical events on long-term supply and demand dynamics is under scrutiny, with predictions of high global oil inventories potentially suppressing oil prices [4] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The current market conditions necessitate a deeper analysis to determine whether price increases are short-term disturbances or indicative of long-term supply-demand shifts, emphasizing the importance of identifying segments with genuine pricing power [5]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the **energy sector** and its impact on **agricultural products** due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the conflict affecting Qatar's LNG exports and the risks associated with the Strait of Hormuz [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments Energy Prices and Geopolitical Impact - The conflict has led to a significant disruption in Middle Eastern oil and gas production, with approximately **20% of refinery facilities** affected and Qatar's LNG exports nearly halted [2]. - The potential for oil prices to surge to **$140** exists if geopolitical tensions escalate further, while a resolution within two weeks could see prices stabilize around **$80** [3]. - If disruptions persist into Q2, oil prices may be reassessed to remain above **$120** [3]. Agricultural Products and Cost Transmission - High oil prices are expected to transmit through energy costs (accounting for **25%-27%** of agricultural production costs), potentially leading to a bullish cycle for agricultural products starting in **2026** [1][6]. - Specific agricultural products like **soybean meal** are projected to maintain a target price of **3,200 CNY/ton** due to low import volumes and high pig production capacity [1]. - **Corn prices** are supported by high planting costs and reduced planting area expectations in the U.S., maintaining a strong price outlook [1][12]. Market Dynamics and Price Trends - The agricultural sector initially reacted slowly to rising oil prices but has begun to catch up, with significant price increases observed in various products over the last few days [5][6]. - The lag in cost transmission from oil prices to agricultural products typically spans **2-3 quarters**, making the current period critical as it coincides with the spring planting season in the Northern Hemisphere [5][6]. Supply Chain and Inventory Considerations - The **U.S. strategic petroleum reserve (SPR)** may be tapped to buffer supply disruptions, although this action does not guarantee a market turning point [4][5]. - The agricultural supply chain is under pressure, with domestic soybean imports remaining low and inventories being depleted, which could lead to tighter supply conditions [10]. Additional Important Insights - The **demand side** is influenced by a strong U.S. dollar, which may suppress global demand for U.S. soybeans and Brazilian corn, impacting agricultural prices [7]. - The **2026 agricultural cycle** is at a critical juncture, with potential for a shift from bearish to bullish trends, but caution is advised regarding weather risks and cost transmission effects [8]. - The **price of U.S. soybeans** has recently surpassed **1,200 cents**, driven by favorable conditions and supportive oil prices, but future upward momentum may be limited by South American supply pressures [9][10]. Conclusion - The records highlight the interconnectedness of energy prices and agricultural markets, emphasizing the need for close monitoring of geopolitical developments and their implications for supply chains and pricing dynamics in both sectors.

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the ongoing decline in pig prices, with the average price reaching 10.18 CNY/kg as of March 6, 2026, marking a 5.3% decrease from the previous week and an 11.1% drop from February 14, 2026, indicating significant losses for breeding enterprises [4] - The escalation of the US-Iran conflict has led to rising crude oil prices, which are expected to push agricultural product prices upward [4] - The report suggests that the ongoing losses in pig farming may accelerate capacity reduction, with the current breeding loss at 237.98 CNY per pig, an increase from 159.65 CNY per pig the previous week [4] - A meeting held on March 3, 2026, indicated that the number of breeding sows may be adjusted down to 36.5 million, a reduction of 11%, aimed at stabilizing pig production capacity and potentially leading to a price recovery [4] - The report recommends focusing on companies such as Muyuan Foods, Dekang Agriculture, and Wens Foodstuffs for potential investment opportunities due to the expected acceleration in capacity elimination [4] Summary by Sections Recent Industry Performance - The industry has shown relative returns of 5.96% over the past month, 3.97% over three months, and 5.36% over twelve months compared to the CSI 300 index [2] Related Research Reports - Previous reports have focused on agricultural modernization and the implications of pig farming capacity adjustments, indicating a trend towards addressing overcapacity in the sector [3] Investment Recommendations - The report advises investors to consider left-side positioning in the pig farming sector due to the anticipated price stabilization and potential recovery in agricultural product prices driven by geopolitical factors [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical factors face significant uncertainties, and most varieties are expected to oscillate and consolidate in the short term. For the medium - to - long - term, strategies can be formulated according to the characteristics of each variety, such as constructing long positions in combination with the premium advantage of stock index futures [1]. - The escalation of the Middle East situation has a wide - ranging impact on the market, affecting the risk appetite, supply, and cost of various commodities, and leading to different trends in different varieties [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The deterioration of the Middle East situation and the continuous accumulation of domestic and foreign copper inventories have led to a weak operation of copper prices [1]. - **Aluminum**: Although the Middle East situation has suppressed market risk appetite, the continuous increase in the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East and the rise in energy prices have increased costs, so aluminum prices are expected to run strongly. Attention should be paid to the supply disturbance of electrolytic aluminum in the Middle East [1]. - **Alumina**: The operating capacity of domestic alumina has declined slightly, but the inventory has further increased, and the fundamentals are still weak. The short - term price will oscillate [1]. - **Zinc**: The concerns about zinc ore supply due to the Middle East situation can support zinc prices, but the short - term fundamental contradictions are limited, and zinc prices are expected to oscillate [1]. - **Nickel**: The tightening concerns of the RKAB quota of Indonesian nickel ore have resurfaced, the quota approval is slow, the nickel ore premium remains high, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz may affect the MHP raw material supply. Nickel prices may oscillate at a high level and are still affected by the resonance of the non - ferrous sector. It is recommended to go long on dips and control risks [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: After the festival, raw material prices have risen, steel mills' production in March has increased significantly, and the social inventory has decreased slightly. The macro - sentiment fluctuates greatly, and there is still raw material support. Stainless steel futures will oscillate widely. Attention should be paid to the demand acceptance. It is recommended to pay attention to low - buying opportunities and control risks [1]. - **Tin**: Inflation risks have increased, putting short - term pressure on the non - ferrous sector. Tin will oscillate with high volatility in the short term. Investors are advised to pay attention to risk management and profit protection [1]. 3.2 Precious Metals and New Energy - **Precious Metals**: The continuous rise in energy prices has increased inflation risks and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations. However, the poor February non - farm payrolls in the United States have increased the risk of economic stagflation, and combined with the Middle East geopolitical game and private credit risks in the United States, precious metal prices may oscillate strongly in the short term [1]. - **Platinum and Lithium**: The continuous rise in energy prices has increased inflation risks and suppressed interest - rate cut expectations. The poor February non - farm payrolls in the United States have increased the risk of economic stagflation, and the Middle East geopolitical uncertainty remains high. Platinum and lithium prices may oscillate within a range in the short term [1]. 3.3 Industrial Silicon and Related Products - **Industrial Silicon**: There is production increase in the northwest and production decrease in the southwest. The production of polysilicon and organic silicon in December decreased by 88 [1]. - **Polysilicon**: The inventory is at a low level, the demand expectation is weak, and the price oscillates [1]. - **Carbonate Lithium**: The energy storage demand is strong, there is battery export rush, and there are disturbances at the mine end. It is bullish [1]. 3.4 Black Metals - **Rebar**: The inventory is at a relatively high historical level, and the de - stocking pressure needs to be tested in the future. The price oscillates [1]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil**: After taking profits on the long - basis positions, wait for the next entry opportunity [1]. - **Iron Ore**: The short - term supply and demand continue to be weak, but geopolitical conflicts, policy benefits, and cost support are positive for the price. It is difficult for iron ore to have a unilateral downward market under geopolitical conflicts [1]. - **Silicon Iron**: The short - term supply and demand are both weak, the expectation of supply reduction has increased, and at the same time, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, energy prices have strengthened, and there is cost support [1]. - **Glass**: The short - term supply and demand are both weak, the expectation of supply reduction has increased, and at the same time, geopolitical conflicts have intensified, energy prices have strengthened, and there is cost support [1]. - **Soda Ash**: It mainly follows glass. In the short term, it is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and in the medium term, the supply and demand are more relaxed, and the price is under pressure [1]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: Geopolitical conflicts continue to ferment, and the first round of spot price cuts for coking coal and coke has begun. However, the previous low has already factored in the expectation of 2 - 3 rounds of price cuts, so there is not much market trading. The digital targets given by the domestic two sessions are basically in line with expectations. As energy and chemical products rise and other assets perform poorly, the market is moving towards the stagflation logic. Attention should be paid to the subsequent changes in the situation. Energy - related varieties should avoid speculative short positions, and coking coal and coke should be mainly on the sidelines. The industry can take advantage of the rebound opportunity to establish spot - futures positive hedging positions in the 05 contract [1]. 3.5 Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the price of palm oil through the biodiesel demand. However, the current fundamental pressure of palm oil is large, with high inventory in Malaysia, the production season, and the consumption off - season. Be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: The sharp rise in crude oil will drive up the price of soybean oil through the biodiesel demand. However, after the end of the Southeast Asian Ramadan, the incremental export of domestic soybean oil may decline rhythmically, and the large arrival of soybeans in April will also bring pressure. Be vigilant against the decline after the stagnation of crude oil [1]. - **Cotton**: Internationally, the USDA expects that the global cotton inventory will tighten in the 2026/27 season due to production cuts in major producing countries and increased consumption. China's import demand is expected to increase by 25%, and the export of US cotton will slightly increase but face competition from Brazil. Recently, the export sales of US cotton have reached a new high for the year, and Trump's visit to China may further expand the import of US agricultural products, which is beneficial to the export of US cotton. Domestically, the cotton inventory is high, the willingness of textile enterprises to replenish inventory is weak, the supply is abundant, the demand is stable and resilient, and the import substitution pressure brought by the internal - external price difference exists. The policy is stable, and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang is the core variable. The domestic cotton price will gradually rise with the recovery of demand and the expectation of reduced planting in the medium - to - long - term [1]. - **Sugar**: Internationally, the global sugar market has a clear pattern of structural surplus in the 2025/26 season. India has a significant increase in production, Brazil's production remains high, and Thailand's slight production cut has limited impact. The overall supply of major producing countries is abundant. With the expectation of the new sugar - crushing season in Brazil, the supply pressure in the global sugar market continues to increase. Domestically, the supply of domestic sugar is in a loose pattern in the 2025/26 season. The production of cane sugar has entered the peak of concentrated crushing, and the domestic sugar production has increased year - on - year. The arrival of imported sugar is stable, and the industrial inventory is high. The total domestic supply is abundant, and the market has changed from a tight balance to a slight surplus. Overall, it is expected that the Zhengzhou sugar price will have a ceiling and a floor and will not fluctuate significantly, and the pattern of strong domestic and weak international prices will continue. The short - term inventory replenishment demand and geopolitical risks support the disk to oscillate strongly, but the downstream profit is poor, and it is expected to increase the use of other substitutes. In addition, pay attention to policy risks, such as the release of policy grains such as aged rice and changes in import policy orientation [1]. - **Soybean and Soybean Meal**: The continuous Middle East conflict has raised concerns about the increase in shipping costs and planting costs. The war risk premium supports the US soybean and soybean meal disks. In the short term, pay attention to the international situation. The sustainability of the war is difficult to estimate, and be cautious in unilateral operations [1]. - **Paper Pulp**: The weak fundamentals of paper pulp futures are difficult to change in the short term. The whole industry chain is accumulating inventory, and the price increase letters of domestic finished paper are difficult to implement. Affected by the macro - sentiment of commodities, paper pulp futures have increased in price with reduced positions. Pay attention to the pressure level of 5350 - 5450 [1]. - **Log**: The spot price of logs has increased, the log arrival volume in February has decreased, and the expectation of an increase in the foreign quotation is relatively clear, so the disk has an upward driving force. At the same time, the foreign quotation has increased due to the impact of shipping costs. Pay attention to the domestic acceptance [1]. - **Pig**: Recently, the spot price has gradually stabilized, supported by demand. The slaughter weight has not been fully cleared, and the production capacity still needs to be further released [1]. 3.6 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Affected by geopolitical factors, the expectation of crude oil has strengthened significantly. The Northeast Asian refineries are extremely dependent on crude oil supply from the Middle East. Due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the Northeast Asian refineries are facing a shortage of crude oil supply and have to reduce their production [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The escalation of the Middle East situation, the obstruction of transportation in the Strait of Hormuz, and the increase in market risk appetite have all affected fuel oil [1]. - **Asphalt**: The impact of Iranian asphalt imports on the domestic market is not large, but the price transmission of crude oil on the cost side affects asphalt, which is relatively weak among energy varieties [1]. - **BD and BR Rubber**: The escalation of the US - Iran situation has a great impact on the raw material imports in Northeast Asia. Refineries have chosen to stop production for maintenance and suspend external sales due to the lack of raw materials. The prices of BD and BR have risen significantly and still have room to rise. The cost of butadiene has strong support at the bottom, the price of Japanese light naphtha is still rising, and the overseas cracking device capacity is being cleared, which is beneficial to the long - term domestic butadiene export expectation. Recently, the profit of private cis - butadiene devices has remained in a loss state, and the expectation of maintenance and production reduction has increased. The downstream negative feedback is gradually being realized. In terms of fundamentals, the inventory of BD/BR may turn to a de - stocking expectation under the influence of upstream production suspension [1]. - **PX**: The Asian PX market's speculative sentiment has recovered, but the physical supply is tight, and the physical PX has begun to be in short supply. Due to the extreme market concerns, downstream replenishment has been rapid, and the polyester's operating load is also lower than expected [1]. - **Naphtha and Ethylene Glycol**: The Middle East situation is tense, and the market is in chaos. Asian naphtha cracking devices have undergone large - scale production cuts and shutdowns. South Korea, as the largest naphtha cracking center in Asia, has synchronously launched production - cut plans, and the overall operating rate has dropped sharply. Domestic refineries have also taken actions to reduce production and load to deal with the possible reduction of raw materials. Domestic ethylene glycol devices have risen sharply due to the reduction of raw materials [1]. - **Short - Fiber**: The short - fiber price continues to fluctuate closely following the cost [1]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: The overseas pure benzene market has risen driven by the soaring energy prices, and multiple disturbances on the supply side are also affecting the price. The Middle East geopolitical conflict continues to ferment, providing strong support for oil prices. The middle and lower reaches are buying goods crazily, the market is cautious in selling, and the trading atmosphere is crazy. The overseas pure benzene devices have concentrated production cuts and declared force majeure. The overseas styrene market has shown a strong upward pattern under multiple disturbances on the supply side. The downstream and traders of styrene are replenishing goods crazily, resulting in an extremely tight supply of styrene spot. Any unexpected interruption may cause the price to soar further [1]. - **Methanol**: Iran's imports have a significant impact. The mutual attacks on energy facilities between the US and Iran have led to the shutdown of some devices, and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has prevented Iranian methanol from being transported out. However, the current domestic production is at a high level, and the inventory is at the highest level in the same period of history [1]. - **PE**: The geopolitical situation has heated up, crude oil has risen, and the fundamentals are weak [1]. - **PVC**: In 2026, there will be less global production. The differential electricity price in the northwest region is expected to be implemented, forcing the clearance of PVC production capacity, and the future expectation is optimistic. Geopolitical conflicts have intensified, freight has risen, and the ethylene - based method is facing the problem of raw material shortage [1]. - **LPG**: The CP price in March is flat, and the near - month purchase is still relatively tight. The premium of the Middle East geopolitical conflict has recovered, and the PG trend is strong. The driving logic of the overseas cold wave is gradually weakening, and it is expected that the basis will continue to repair and expand. The domestic PDH operating rate has declined, and the profit is expected to recover seasonally. The short - term demand for LPG is bearish, suppressing the upward movement of the disk. The port is continuously de - stocking, but the domestic civil gas is relatively abundant, resulting in a divergence in the internal and external market trends and a deviation between FEI and PG [1].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [6] Core Insights - The report highlights opportunities in the agricultural sector due to rising agricultural product prices, particularly in planting and pet sectors, while the pig farming sector is facing challenges due to low prices [2][3][5] Summary by Sections Planting Sector - The report is optimistic about the improvement in planting sector conditions, with corn prices reaching 2418 CNY/ton, a weekly increase of 1.5%, and wheat prices at 2542 CNY/ton, up 0.3% week-on-week. The report anticipates that the favorable grain price environment will benefit planting companies through 2026. It continues to recommend leading corn seed company Kangnong Seed Industry [3][4]. Breeding Sector - The pig farming sector is currently experiencing low prices, with the national average price at a historically low level. The report expects a continued weak demand post-holiday and an oversupply situation, leading to an accelerated reduction in breeding capacity in March. Data shows a limited decline in breeding sows, with a slight increase of 0.39% month-on-month in February [4][12]. Pet Sector - The report notes that exchange rate factors may impact short-term export performance, but domestic market growth remains promising. The pet market is expected to benefit from upcoming large pet exhibitions in cities like Beijing and Shenzhen. Key indicators for evaluating pet companies include revenue growth and gross margin levels [5][30]. Investment Recommendations - Recommended stocks in the pig farming sector include Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, and Shennong Group. For the post-cycle sector, recommended stocks include Keqian Biology and Haida Group. In the agricultural product supply chain, recommended stocks are Morning Light Bio, Noposion, and Kangnong Seed Industry. In the pet sector, recommended stocks include Guibao Pet and Zhongchong Co. [5][30][31].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the improvement in the export sales of US soybeans, a slight downward adjustment in Brazil's soybean production, and the impact of geopolitical crises, the recent price of CBOT US soybeans has strengthened, driving up the valuation of protein meal. However, the current domestic soybean inventory is relatively high year-on-year, and there is an expectation of a large amount of US soybean purchases in the far - term, which restricts the short - term upward space. It is recommended to wait for a pullback before attempting to buy [10]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Monthly Assessment and Strategy Recommendation - **Industry Information** - AgRural and StoneX have both slightly lowered their forecasts for Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production, with AgRural's estimate at 178 million tons (down 3 million tons from the previous forecast) and StoneX's at 177.8 million tons (down 3.8 million tons) [10]. - From February 19th to 26th, the US exported 380,000 tons of soybeans, with a cumulative export of 36.03 million tons in the current year, a year - on - year decrease of 7.86 million tons. The exports to China during the same period were 150,000 tons, and the cumulative exports to China in the current year were 10.82 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.13 million tons [10]. - As of February 27th, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean harvest progress reached 39.66% of the total planting area, 2.38 percentage points higher than the same period last year [10]. - As of the week of February 27th, the arrival of domestic sample soybeans in 2026 was 12.54 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.36 million tons, and the port inventory of sample soybeans was 6.3 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.7 million tons [10]. - In January, the forecast for the global soybean production in 2025/26 was 425.67 million tons, an increase of 3.13 million tons compared to the December forecast and a decrease of 1.48 million tons compared to the previous year. The stock - to - consumption ratio was 29.4%, an increase of 0.39 percentage points compared to December and a decrease of 0.44 percentage points compared to the previous year [10]. - **Fundamental Assessment** - The multi - empty scores of factors such as the 5 - 7 spread of US soybeans, soybean import crushing profit, rapeseed import cost, and others are evaluated. It is recommended to wait for a pullback before attempting to buy [11]. - **Trading Strategy Suggestion** - Both unilateral and arbitrage strategies suggest waiting and seeing [12]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Spot Price** - The report presents the spot price trends of soybean meal in Dongguan, Guangdong and rapeseed meal in Huangpu, Guangdong through charts [21][22]. - **Basis of the Main Contract** - The basis trends of the May contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are shown in the charts [24][25]. - **Inter - monthly Spread** - The 5 - 9 spreads of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are presented in the charts [27][28]. - **Soybean Meal - Rapeseed Meal Spread** - The spreads between the May and September contracts of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are shown in the charts [30][31] 3.3 Supply Side - **US Soybean Planting Progress** - The planting progress, emergence rate, leaf - falling rate, and good - quality rate of US soybeans are presented through charts [36][37][39][40]. - **Weather Conditions** - The precipitation observations of soybeans in Brazil, the US, and Argentina compared with the same period of the year are shown, along with the weather conditions summary of soybean - producing areas [42][43][45][47]. - **US Soybean Export Progress** - The current and next - year market - year cumulative signing volumes, exports to China, and China's monthly imports of soybeans and rapeseeds are presented through charts [53][54][56][57][59][60]. - **China's Oil Mill Crushing Situation** - The crushing volumes of soybeans and rapeseeds in major oil mills are presented through charts [62][63]. - **Brazil's Soybean Export Situation** - Brazil's monthly export volume of soybeans and exports to China, as well as the weekly and cumulative shipments to China of soybeans from Brazil and Argentina, are presented through charts [65][66][68][69][71][72] 3.4 Profit and Inventory - **Oilseed Inventory** - The port inventory of soybeans and the inventory of rapeseeds in major oil mills are presented through charts [76][77]. - **Protein Meal Inventory** - The inventories of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in coastal major oil mills are presented through charts [79][80]. - **Protein Meal Pressing Profit** - The pressing profits of imported soybeans in Guangdong and imported rapeseeds in coastal areas are presented through charts [82][83] 3.5 Demand Side - **Protein Meal Consumption** - The cumulative transactions and apparent consumption of soybean meal in major oil mills are presented through charts [86]. - **Breeding Profit** - The per - head profit of self - breeding and self - raising pigs and the breeding profit of white - feather broilers are presented through charts [88][89]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Views of the Report - In February 2026, corn futures rose strongly; live hog futures showed a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength; egg futures fluctuated weakly within a range. The spot prices of corn increased, live hogs continued to decline, and eggs fluctuated weakly [8][9]. - For corn, the short - term supply - demand mismatch drives the spot to be strong, but the futures may follow the spot after the market opens. In the long - term, the pricing logic of substitution + planting cost remains, and policy orientation should be focused on. For live hogs, the short - term supply exceeds demand, the medium - term supply pressure may ease, and the long - term supply reduction may be less than expected. For eggs, the short - to - medium - term supply - demand imbalance persists, and the long - term price increase may be limited by the expansion of the breeding scale [14][38][59]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Previous Period Review - **Spot Review**: In February, the corn spot price continued to rise, the live hog spot price continued to decline, and the egg spot price fluctuated weakly. For example, on February 28, the FOB price of corn at Jinzhou Port was 2390 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month; the live hog price in Henan dropped from 12.48 yuan/kg at the beginning of the month to 10.8 yuan/kg at the end of the month; the egg price in Guantao, Hebei dropped from 3.33 yuan/jin at the beginning of the month to 2.78 yuan/jin at the end of the month [8]. - **Futures Review**: In February, corn futures rose strongly (the 2605 contract rose 3.6% month - on - month, closing at 2360 yuan/ton), live hog futures fluctuated downward to a record low (the 2605 contract fell 1.42% month - on - month, closing at 11485 yuan/ton), and egg futures showed near - term strength and long - term weakness (the 2603 contract rose 1.73% month - on - month, closing at 3002 yuan/500KG) [9]. - **Strategy Review**: The previous strategies for corn, live hogs, and eggs have been verified by the market. For example, the low - buying strategy for corn around 2100 yuan/ton and the high - selling strategy for live hog 2603 contract around 12000 yuan have achieved results [10]. 3.2 Corn Analysis - **Macro Logic**: Internationally, geopolitical conflicts drive macro - sentiment; domestically, macro - drivers are mainly reflected in industrial policies [13][80]. - **Industry Logic**: It has entered the passive inventory - building cycle. Key policies to focus on include reserve purchases, auctions of targeted rice/imported corn, and grain import policies [13][81]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: In the 2025/26 season, the domestic corn supply - demand pattern turns to basic balance. Globally, the supply pressure decreases year - on - year, but the supply pressure of US corn is prominent. Domestically, the production can basically cover consumption. However, attention should be paid to the policy - guided import and domestic grain substitution scale, as well as the rhythm and scale of policy - grain supply and the change of import policies. On the demand side, the livestock and poultry inventories are still relatively high, but they are expected to decline in 2026. After the Spring Festival, the substitution of wheat for corn in North China has increased [14][82]. - **Variety View**: In the short - to - medium - term, the short - term supply - demand mismatch drives the spot to be strong, but the rapid increase in temperature may lead to a short - term decline in the spot price. The futures may follow the spot. In the long - term, the pricing logic of substitution + planting cost remains, and policy orientation should be focused on [14][83]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a wide - range trading strategy in the medium - term. In the short - term, pay attention to the selling pressure of farmers' concentrated grain sales after the temperature rises and the purchase - sales game of downstream inventory replenishment. For the 2605 contract, the resistance is at 2400, the first support is at 2350 - 2370, and the second support is at 2300 - 2330 [15][84]. 3.3 Live Hog Analysis - **Macro Logic**: Pay attention to the interaction between China's CPI trend and hog prices, as well as industrial policies [39][89]. - **Industry Logic**: Under the guidance of capacity - reduction policies, the structure of the breeding market may change [39][90]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: From the perspective of sow inventory, as of December 2025, the inventory of reproductive sows decreased to 39.61 million, 101.6% of the normal level, and the decline was less than expected. From the perspective of newborn piglets, the supply of live hogs before March 2026 was high, and the supply pressure may ease from April. The current high slaughter weight also exerts pressure on the market. In addition, the import of pork and related products is at a relatively low level, and the frozen - product inventory is also low [38][40][43]. - **Market View**: In the short - term, the supply exceeds demand in March, and hog prices are at a low level. In the medium - term, the supply pressure may ease from April to June. In the long - term, the supply pressure remains before August, and the high - point expectations of far - month contracts are lowered [38][40][90]. - **Trading Strategy**: Maintain a bottom - range trading strategy. For the 2605 contract, the support is at 10500 - 11000, and the resistance is at 11500; for the 2607 contract, the support is at 12000, and the resistance is at 12500; for the 2609 contract, the support is at 13000, and the resistance is at 13500 [40][91][92]. 3.4 Egg Analysis - **Macro Logic**: Domestically, focus on raw material prices and CPI changes, and pay attention to the impact of meat and vegetable prices in the second half of the year [56][96]. - **Industry Logic**: The market share of leading enterprises in the egg - laying hen breeding industry is relatively low. The industry is expected to transform from traditional decentralized breeding to intensive breeding, with small - scale farmers gradually exiting the market and brand - building becoming an important development direction [57][97]. - **Supply - Demand Logic**: At the end of 2025, the egg price rose rapidly, the culling rhythm slowed down, and the supply pressure was postponed. In February 2026, the inventory of laying hens increased, and in March, it is expected to be 1.342 billion. March is a seasonal consumption off - season, and the supply - demand imbalance persists [58][98]. - **Variety View**: In the short - to - medium - term, the supply pressure of eggs is postponed, and the supply - demand imbalance will continue to suppress egg prices at a low level. In the long - term, the expansion of the breeding scale may limit the price increase. [59][99]. - **Trading Strategy**: In the short - term, focus on short - selling opportunities for near - month contracts. For the 2604 contract, the resistance is at 3250 - 3300, and the support is at 3150; for the 2605 contract, the resistance is at 3400 - 3450, and the support is at 3300. In the medium - to - long - term, focus on the culling and molting of hens. If the inventory of laying hens remains above 1.3 billion in the first half of the year, the egg price increase in the second half of the year will be limited. It is recommended that breeding enterprises lock in profits through far - month contracts [60][99].

Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall harvest progress in Brazil is slow, but the high - yield trend remains unchanged, which may affect the arrival rhythm in the short term; the precipitation in the Argentine production area is low, which may impact the yield per unit [7][11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean - **Current Growth Situation**: As of February 28, 2026, the soybean harvesting rate in Brazil's 2025/26 season was 41.7%, compared with 31.9% last week, 48.4% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 38.4%. As of March 4, the proportion of soybeans in good condition was 30%, normal 44%, and fair or poor 26%. The proportion of soil with excessive moisture was 0%, beneficial to suitable 67%, and short to extremely short 33% [6] - **Weather Forecast in the Next Two Weeks**: In Brazil, there will be more precipitation in the central - eastern region, slightly less in the west, with showers/thunderstorms and a weekly cumulative precipitation of 50 - 120mm, locally exceeding 150mm. The southern production area will have less rain in the first half - week and turn rainy after March 14, with a cumulative precipitation of 20 - 60mm, still slightly less overall. In Argentina, the precipitation in the core production area is generally low, with only light showers from the 6th to the 10th day and a weekly cumulative precipitation of 10 - 40mm. The central - southern Buenos Aires and northern Santa Fe are dry, while the central - northern production area has acceptable precipitation [7] Corn - **Current Growth Situation**: As of February 28, 2026, the planting of Brazil's 2nd - season corn in the 2025/26 season was 64.9% complete, compared with 46.7% last week, 69.5% in the same period last year, and a five - year average of 57.2%. As of March 4, the corn harvest in Argentina has accelerated, reaching 7.2% (3.6% last week), and the overall growth of the crop is good, with an estimated yield of about 57 million tons [11] - **Weather Forecast in the Next Two Weeks**: Similar to soybeans, in Brazil, the central - eastern region will have more precipitation, the west slightly less, with showers/thunderstorms and a weekly cumulative precipitation of 50 - 120mm, locally exceeding 150mm. The southern production area will have less rain in the first half - week and turn rainy after March 14, with a cumulative precipitation of 20 - 60mm, still slightly less overall. In Argentina, the core production area has low precipitation, with only light showers from the 6th to the 10th day and a weekly cumulative precipitation of 10 - 40mm. The central - southern Buenos Aires and northern Santa Fe are dry, while the central - northern production area has acceptable precipitation [11]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The La Nina phenomenon has persisted since the end of 2025, but no significant impacts have been observed so far [1] - The rainfall distribution in the Malay Archipelago remains uneven this week, with most areas in Indonesia and eastern Malaysia receiving more rain, while the southern part of the Malay Peninsula has less rainfall [1] - The soil moisture in the southern Malay Peninsula is still dry, with little chance of improvement in March and April. However, the rainfall in Sabah and Sarawak is adequate, and the soil moisture is good across the country. In Indonesia, most areas have seen a recovery in rainfall this week, but the deep - layer soil moisture in Riau, South Sumatra, and North Sumatra continues to decline, and there may be a drought risk in March and April if the rainfall does not improve [1] - In the short term, Sabah may experience a heavy rainfall process. Prolonged rainfall may lead to a short - term decline in production, but overall, the soil moisture is conducive to an increase in annual production [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 El Niño and Southern Oscillation Index - Since the end of 2025, the Southern Oscillation Index has exceeded the threshold of 1 and remained so until the end of January 2026. As of the end of December 2025, the El Niño index was - 0.55, and the positive value of the Southern Oscillation Index indicates the persistence of the La Nina phenomenon [1] 3.2 Rainfall Forecast in Producing Areas - The rainfall in Malaysia remains uneven, and Sabah is facing heavy rainfall [4] 3.3 Soil Moisture in Producing Areas - In March, the soil moisture in most areas of Indonesia has improved, but the soil in the Malay Peninsula is still dry [17] 3.4 Specific Conditions of Indonesian Palm Oil Producing Areas - Jambi: The rainfall has improved, and the soil moisture is expected to rise [23] - West Kalimantan: The rainfall has increased, and the soil moisture has improved [29] - Central Kalimantan: The rainfall shows an increasing trend, and the soil moisture is being restored [36] - East Kalimantan: Heavy rain occurred at the end of February, and the soil moisture continues to recover [44] - Riau: The rainfall has limited improvement, and the soil moisture continues to decline [52] - South Sumatra: The rainfall has increased, and the soil moisture may improve [59] - North Sumatra: The rainfall is expected to recover, and the soil moisture has not deteriorated further [65] 3.5 Specific Conditions of Malaysian Palm Oil Producing Areas - Johor: There is almost no rainfall, and the soil moisture continues to decline [70] - Pahang: The rainfall is still scarce, and the soil moisture has insufficient improvement [77] - Perak: The rainfall slightly recovered in February, which may prevent further drought [84] - Sabah: The accumulated rainfall is abundant, and the soil is relatively moist [90] - Sarawak: The rainfall is adequate, and the soil moisture continues to rise [96]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document Core Viewpoints - The report focuses on the soybean weather conditions in Brazil and Argentina, including the impact of rainfall on soybean harvest and growth, and the market's different expectations for soybean production in Brazil [1][2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Brazil - **Harvest Progress**: The 2025/26 soybean harvest progress in Brazil is 32.3%, with 31.2% still in the filling stage. In Mato Grosso, the harvest progress is 78.34%, lower than 82.30% in the same period last year, mainly due to frequent rainfall [1][24] - **Regional Impact**: In Goiás, excessive rainfall affects grain quality; in Mato Grosso do Sul, rainfall suspends harvest in some cities but benefits filling soybeans; in Minas Gerais, excessive rainfall promotes fungal diseases; in Paraná, dry weather helps crop maturity but affects the production potential of filling plots; in Rio Grande do Sul, irregular and light rainfall is insufficient for crop needs [1][25] - **Production Expectations**: Market expectations for Brazilian soybean production vary. Safra&Mercado Consulting Company lowers the production by 1.5 million tons to 177.7 million tons, while Rabobank raises it by 2 million tons to 181 million tons. USDA's NDVI reading shows that the production potential has significantly declined [1][25] - **Future Forecast**: In the next 15 days, the rainfall distribution in Brazil is uneven, and the southern region still lacks rainfall [1][25] Argentina - **Crop Conditions**: The rainfall for soybean crops is good. The proportion of crops in good condition or above is 71%, a 4% week-on-week decrease but still higher than in previous years. The proportion of crops with suitable moisture or above is 73%, a 7% week-on-week increase [2][45] - **Key Growth Stage**: Currently, 58% of the country's soybeans are in the key stage of determining yield (filling and later). In the two core producing areas, more than half of the early-sown soybeans have entered the filling stage with less water restriction [2][45] - **Production Forecast**: The Argentine Ministry of Agriculture maintains the forecast of this season's soybean production at 48.5 million tons. USDA's overall NDVI reading for Argentina has slowly increased in the past few weeks and is currently above the average [2][45] - **Future Forecast**: Argentina will have dry weather in the next 5 days, and precipitation will occur in the next 6 - 10 days, but the southern region will still be dry [2][45] International Soybean Annual Focus - Different months have different focuses, including US soybean exports, South American production, global soybean ending stocks, Chinese imports, US and Chinese sowing areas, and US yield levels [63] Soybean Growth Cycle and Weather Requirements - The growth cycle includes the planting period, flowering period, growth period, and harvest period, each with specific temperature, moisture, and weather requirements, as well as corresponding disaster risks [71]