Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the reform of the assessment and incentive mechanisms for public funds in China, focusing on performance, long-term results, and benchmarks as key elements for high-quality development [1][3]. Group 1: Regulatory Changes - On May 7, the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) released an action plan aimed at promoting high-quality development in public funds, which includes reforming the assessment and incentive mechanisms for fund companies, personnel, and products [1]. - The new regulations require fund managers to disclose the reasons for selecting performance benchmarks and allow for modifications to these benchmarks under certain conditions [1]. Group 2: International Practices - The design goals of overseas fund assessment mechanisms focus on achieving long-term stable excess returns, characterized by benchmarking, long-term perspectives, and diversification [2]. - In the U.S. and Europe, performance benchmarks are used as evaluation tools for fund managers, with the U.S. introducing the AIMR-PPS in 1993 and the GIPS standards by CFA in 1999 to establish global benchmarks [2]. - The assessment periods in the U.S. have shifted from short-term (1-3 years) to medium and long-term (5-10 years), with firms like JPMorgan incorporating 10-year performance metrics [2]. Group 3: Recommendations for China's Fund Industry - China's fund industry can learn from international experiences to establish a benchmark-based long-cycle assessment and incentive mechanism [3]. - The U.S. uses a single, converging benchmark (S&P 500) for easier horizontal comparisons, while Europe employs a more diversified approach with indices like MSCI for differentiated development [3]. - The article suggests focusing on index-weighted stock allocation opportunities under the new regulatory framework, as the performance of actively managed equity funds is expected to align more closely with benchmarks [3].

Macroeconomic Insights - Economic growth in July showed an overall slowdown, with policy-driven sectors performing well due to equipment upgrades, appliance replacements, and major infrastructure projects [3] - Durable goods consumption and infrastructure-related manufacturing industries maintained high growth rates, while extreme weather, high base effects, and declining external demand hindered project construction and production in some sectors [3] - The real estate sector is still in a downturn, indicating that internal recovery momentum is not yet solid [3] - Future economic recovery requires continued and enhanced consumer stimulus policies, optimized funding allocation for infrastructure, and increased support for demand in the real estate market [3] Capital Market Strategy - The shift in valuation logic for the Chinese stock market is moving from economic cycle fluctuations to a decline in discount rates, with expectations for A/H stock indices to reach new highs [5][7] - Institutional changes are crucial for improving the investability of the Chinese stock market and altering societal perceptions of asset value [8][9] - Recent reforms aim to enhance investor returns, improve corporate governance, and encourage share buybacks, which are expected to increase investor confidence and market performance [9][10] - The establishment of a stable market mechanism is seen as a "firewall" that reduces risk perceptions and encourages long-term capital investment [10][11] Hong Kong Market Analysis - The Hong Kong stock market has underperformed since mid-June, influenced by macroeconomic factors such as the Hong Kong dollar's exchange rate and U.S. trade policies [15] - The widening interest rate differential between Hong Kong and the U.S. has led to liquidity tightening, negatively impacting stock performance [15] - The decline in popularity of key sectors and a slowdown in capital inflows have contributed to the weaker performance of the Hong Kong market [16] - Despite recent underperformance, the outlook for the Hong Kong stock market remains positive, with expectations for recovery driven by AI applications and consumer trends [16]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The brokerage sector is experiencing high growth in performance as indicated by preliminary reports, with increasing allocation value. The insurance sector is also expected to see a rise in new business value driven by an increase in value ratios. The equity market continues to rise, leading to favorable expectations for investment returns and profit growth. Current valuations imply a pessimistic long-term investment outlook, but the report considers current valuations to be safe, given the medium to long-term interest rate spread levels [2][4] - The report recommends companies with stable profit growth and dividend rates, including Jiangsu Jinzhong, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance, which have clear advantages in business models and market positions. Additionally, it suggests focusing on New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [2][4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial index decreased by 2.4% this week, with a relative excess return of -0.6% compared to the CSI 300, ranking 22 out of 31 industries. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index is up by 4.0%, with a relative excess return of +1.0%, also ranking 21 out of 31 [5] - The market has seen a decline in activity, with an average daily trading volume of 18,096.34 billion yuan, down 2.11% week-on-week, and an average turnover rate of 2.12%, down 2.50 basis points [5] Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector's performance has been weak overall, with the securities sector down 3.1% this week. The report highlights that the average daily trading volume and turnover rate are above the 2024 averages, indicating a gradual recovery in brokerage business profitability [17][39] - Margin financing balances have increased to 1.98 trillion yuan, up 2.21% week-on-week, indicating a recovery in credit business [46] Investment Business - The equity market has seen an overall decline, with the CSI 300 index down 1.75% and the ChiNext index down 0.74%. The report notes that the proportion of equity investments in brokerage assets is approximately 10%-30%, while bond investments account for 70%-90% [43][44] Insurance Sector - The insurance industry reported a cumulative premium income of 37,350 billion yuan in June 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.31%. The report indicates that the premium income from property insurance was 9,645 billion yuan, up 5.10%, while life insurance income was 27,705 billion yuan, up 5.38% [21][22] - The total assets of the insurance industry reached 39.22 trillion yuan as of June 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 2.08% [26][27]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The report highlights that brokerage firms are expected to see significant growth in mid-year performance, driven by market conditions. The insurance sector is also anticipated to experience high growth in new business value due to an increase in value rates. The equity market is on an upward trend, leading to favorable investment returns and profit growth. Current valuations imply a pessimistic long-term investment outlook, but the report suggests that valuations remain safe considering medium to long-term interest rate spreads [4][5] - The report recommends several companies based on their stable profit growth and dividend rates, including Jiangsu Jinzhong, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance. Additionally, it suggests companies like New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on their performance elasticity and valuation levels [4][5] Summary by Sections Brokerage Performance - This week, some brokerage firms disclosed performance forecasts, indicating a significant increase in mid-year results, which enhances their future allocation value. The report emphasizes the stability of profit growth and dividend rates as key factors for investment recommendations [4][5] Market Overview - The non-bank financial index increased by 3.5% this week, outperforming the CSI 300 by 1.8%. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has risen by 6.6%, with a relative underperformance of 1.7% against the CSI 300. The overall performance of the non-bank sector has been strong this week [5][18] Insurance Sector - In June 2025, the cumulative premium income for the insurance industry reached 373.5 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 5.31%. The report notes that both property and life insurance segments showed positive growth, with property insurance income at 96.45 billion yuan and life insurance income at 277.05 billion yuan [22][23] Investment Business - The report indicates that the equity market is recovering, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.69% and the ChiNext index by 2.76%. The brokerage firms' investment assets are primarily composed of bonds, with equity investments accounting for approximately 10%-30% of their portfolios [42][44] Financing Activities - In June 2025, the equity financing scale reached 544.19 billion yuan, a significant increase of 3140.2% month-on-month, while bond financing totaled 8.83 trillion yuan, up by 21.3%. This indicates a recovery in both equity and bond financing activities [46][49] Asset Management - The report notes a rebound in the issuance of collective asset management products, with June 2025 seeing an issuance of 9.732 billion units, a 125.8% increase from the previous month. However, the new fund issuance decreased by 10.3% in June [51][53]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the brokerage sector [10] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes three main reasons for the positive outlook on brokerages: 1) The financial sector is currently lagging, with a high safety margin in valuations; 2) Upcoming mid-year reports are expected to show continued high growth in performance; 3) The absolute value of AH premium remains high, with ongoing valuation recovery in H-shares [2][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Reason 1: Financial Sector Lagging with High Valuation Safety Margin - Since the beginning of 2025, brokerages have underperformed the market, with a cumulative increase of only 0.1% compared to a 3.0 percentage point underperformance against the CSI 300 index. Within the financial sector, brokerages lag behind insurance, diversified finance, and banks by 10.1, 11.3, and 20.0 percentage points respectively. However, since June, the sector has shown positive excess returns against the CSI 300 [6][17] - As of July 18, 2025, the price-to-book (PB) ratio for the industry is approximately 1.50, which is around the 40th percentile of the relative valuation range since 2016, indicating a high safety margin [22][23] Reason 2: Upcoming Mid-Year Reports Expected to Show Continued High Growth - The market has maintained high trading activity, with an average daily trading volume of 1,390.2 billion yuan from January to June 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 61.1%. The A-share IPO, refinancing, and bond underwriting scales for the same period are 37.4 billion yuan, 697.7 billion yuan, and 45 trillion yuan, showing year-on-year increases of 15.0%, 613.5%, and 16.6% respectively [7][30] - Among 31 brokerages that have disclosed performance forecasts, all expect a net profit growth rate of over 40%, with two companies projecting over 1000% growth [38] Reason 3: High Absolute Value of AH Premium and H-share Valuation Recovery - As of July 18, 2025, the AH premium for the brokerage sector stands at 68.1%, with the average AH premium for the entire industry at 62.0%. Notably, Citic Securities, Guolian Minsheng, and CICC maintain AH premiums above 100% [8][45] - The report highlights that the current AH premium levels for brokerages are historically high, with specific companies like Citic Securities at 133.8%, Guolian Minsheng at 118.0%, and CICC at 104.5% [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The report indicates that several brokerage firms have disclosed performance increases, with mid-year results expected to continue high growth, enhancing their investment value. Additionally, the insurance sector is anticipated to see an increase in value ratios, driving significant growth in new business value. The equity market is expected to continue its upward trend, with positive investment returns and profit growth. Current valuations reflect a pessimistic assumption about long-term investments, but considering the medium to long-term interest rate spreads, current valuations remain safe. The report is optimistic about improvements in concentration and liability costs [2][4] - From the perspective of profitability and dividend stability, the report recommends Jiangsu Jinzhong, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance for their stable profit growth and high dividend yields. Furthermore, it recommends Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Fortune, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on their performance elasticity and valuation levels [4] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The non-bank financial index decreased by 1.2% this week, underperforming the CSI 300 by 2.3%, ranking 28th out of 31 sectors. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has increased by 3.0%, also underperforming the CSI 300 by 0.2%, ranking 22nd out of 31 sectors. Overall, the non-bank sector has shown weak performance this week [5] Market Performance - Market activity has seen a rebound, with an average daily trading volume of 15,462.47 billion yuan, up 3.35% week-on-week. The average turnover rate is 1.83%, an increase of 4.07 basis points. The leverage capital scale has also risen, with a margin balance of 1.90 trillion yuan, up 1.64% [5][34] Brokerage Data Tracking - The report highlights a recovery in trading activity, with the CSI 300 index rising by 1.09% and the ChiNext index increasing by 3.17%. The average daily trading volume has surpassed the 2024 average, indicating a gradual recovery in brokerage business profitability [33][39] Investment Business - The equity market is showing signs of recovery, with the CSI 300 index up by 1.09% and the ChiNext index up by 3.17%. The report notes that brokerage firms have a significant portion of their investment assets in equities (10%-30%) and bonds (70%-90%), necessitating close monitoring of market changes [39] Credit Business - The margin trading balance has increased to 1.90 trillion yuan, reflecting a 1.64% week-on-week rise. The report notes that while the stock pledge business is expected to remain cautious due to past credit risks, income from this business is anticipated to perform better than its scale [42] Investment Banking Business - In June, the equity financing scale rose significantly to 544.19 billion yuan, a 3140.2% increase, while bond financing reached 88.3 trillion yuan, up 21.3%. The report suggests that the stock underwriting scale is expected to increase due to new refinancing regulations [44][46] Asset Management Business - The report indicates a rebound in the issuance of collective asset management products, with June seeing a total issuance of 9.301 billion units, up 116.8% from the previous month. However, the new fund issuance decreased by 22.0% in June compared to the previous month [48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the securities industry [7]. Core Insights - Since 2025, the Hong Kong stock market has performed strongly, leading to a decline in the AH premium index, which has dropped by 11.6% year-to-date as of July 11, 2025 [5][10]. - The average AH premium across all A+H listed companies is currently 65.1%, with the non-bank financial sector at 79.0% [10][15]. - The top five industries with the highest AH premiums are: 1. Paper and Packaging: 191.9% 2. Chemicals: 146.0% 3. Automotive and Parts: 120.9% 4. Business Services: 92.5% 5. Oil and Petrochemicals: 90.5% [10][15]. Summary by Sections Current AH Premium Situation - As of July 11, 2025, there are 160 A+H listed companies, with the financial sector comprising 22.5% of the total number and 48.0% of the total market capitalization [10]. - The securities sector has an average AH premium of 74.7%, with notable companies like CITIC Securities at 18.3% and Huatai Securities at 23.9% [10][17]. Price Elasticity and Drawdown - The report analyzes the maximum price increase and current drawdown for A+H listed securities since the "924" period, highlighting that: - China Merchants Securities (H) has a maximum increase of 329.5% with a drawdown of -39.4% - CITIC Securities (H) has a maximum increase of 154.5% with a drawdown of -11.4% [10][18]. Company-Specific Performance - The report details the AH premium and related performance for specific companies, such as: - CITIC Jiantou: AH premium of 137.5% - Guolian Minsheng: AH premium of 128.1% - CICC: AH premium of 109.1% [10][17]. Market Comparison - The report includes a market performance comparison over the past 12 months, indicating that the securities industry has outperformed the CSI 300 index [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The brokerage sector is expected to continue high growth in mid-year performance, with ongoing strong market trading activity. The report highlights the potential for investment opportunities in this sector [2][4] - The insurance sector is guided by a recent notice from the Ministry of Finance, emphasizing long-term investment strategies and management capabilities, which is expected to drive stable long-term capital inflows into the market. The report recommends companies like Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance based on their stable profitability and dividend rates [2][4] - The report also suggests a focus on companies with strong performance elasticity and valuation levels, recommending Xinhua Insurance, China Life, Hong Kong Stock Exchange, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings [2][4] Summary by Sections Brokerage Sector - The brokerage sector is experiencing a recovery with high trading volumes, and mid-year performance is expected to show significant growth. The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on high-quality stocks within this sector [2][4] - The average daily trading volume in the market has increased to 14,961.49 billion yuan, reflecting a 3.80% increase week-on-week, indicating a strong recovery in trading activity [5][36] Insurance Sector - The insurance industry has seen a year-on-year increase in premium income, with total premiums reaching 30,602 billion yuan in May 2025, up 3.77% from the previous year. This includes a 5.22% increase in property insurance and a 3.28% increase in life insurance [19][20] - The report highlights the stable asset allocation of insurance funds, with a significant portion invested in bonds and stock funds, indicating a robust investment strategy [25][24] Market Performance - The non-bank financial index has shown a 4.0% increase this week, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.1%, indicating strong sector performance [5][16] - The report notes that the overall performance of the non-bank sector is strong, with the securities sector rising by 4.5% and the insurance sector by 1.7% [16][21] Financing Activities - In June 2025, equity financing reached 544.19 billion yuan, a significant increase of 3140.2% month-on-month, while bond financing also saw a rise to 88.3 billion yuan, up 21.3% [45][47] - The report indicates a recovery in the issuance of collective asset management products, with a notable increase in new issuances in June 2025 [49]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the investment banking and brokerage industry [7] Core Insights - The industry experienced a pullback this week, with the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) holding a meeting to discuss specific measures for implementing capital market policies. Broker valuations and institutional holdings are at low levels, while trading volumes remain high. Investment banking and overseas business have shown month-on-month improvements, and the mid-year reports are expected to continue the high prosperity trend, indicating ongoing opportunities in the sector [2][4] - In the insurance sector, current valuations reflect a pessimistic market outlook on long-term investments. However, considering the medium to long-term interest rate spreads, current valuations are still deemed safe. The report favors companies with stable earnings and dividends, recommending Jiangsu Jinzu, China Ping An, and China Pacific Insurance. Additionally, it suggests companies like New China Life, China Life, Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing, CITIC Securities, Dongfang Wealth, Tonghuashun, and Jiufang Zhitu Holdings based on performance elasticity and valuation levels [2][4] Industry Performance - The non-bank financial index decreased by 0.7% this week, with an excess return of -2.3% relative to the CSI 300, ranking 30th out of 31 industries. Year-to-date, the non-bank financial index has increased by 0.3%, with an excess return of -0.9% compared to the CSI 300, also ranking 22nd out of 31 [5] - Market activity has cooled, with an average daily trading volume of 1,441.396 billion yuan, down 3.05% week-on-week, and an average turnover rate of 1.75%, down 8.10 basis points. However, the leverage capital scale has rebounded, with a margin balance of 1.86 trillion yuan, up 1.12% [5] Key Industry News & Company Announcements - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange released guidelines for the recognition standards of "light assets and high R&D investment" for companies listed on the Growth Enterprise Market [6] - The CSRC held a meeting to discuss specific measures for implementing capital market policies, emphasizing the need for a stable market environment and risk prevention [6][62] - Dongxing Securities has received approval from the CSRC for a change in its controlling shareholder to Huijin Company [6]

Group 1: Macro Trends and Innovations - The report discusses the potential transformation of the global monetary and financial systems due to the development of stablecoins and RWA (Real World Assets), suggesting that these innovations may create a parallel decentralized financial system alongside the existing centralized one [2][3] - It is anticipated that the changes brought by stablecoins and RWA could be as significant as the impact of AI on the global economy, indicating a major shift in how currencies and financial systems operate [2][3] Group 2: Steel Industry Insights - Recent data shows a slight decrease in steel demand, with total inventory shifting from a reduction to an increase, indicating a potential weakening in demand as the industry enters a traditional off-season [5][6] - The apparent consumption of five major steel products was 8.7985 million tons, down by 4.33 million tons week-on-week, while total inventory rose to 13.4003 million tons, marking a 1.14% increase [5][6] - The report forecasts that steel demand may stabilize gradually, with construction and manufacturing sectors expected to support demand, despite ongoing challenges in the real estate sector [6] Group 3: Cement and Building Materials - The cement industry is showing signs of stabilization after price adjustments, with competition and profitability continuing to improve [4] - The report notes that the national average cement price has seen a slight decline of 1.2%, with certain regions experiencing price increases due to demand fluctuations [8] - The building materials sector is expected to enter a low base period starting June 2024, which may improve demand metrics as previous high demand levels are compared against lower future figures [9] Group 4: Glass and Fiberglass Market - The domestic float glass market is experiencing a downturn, with average prices dropping to 1250.27 yuan per ton, reflecting a weak demand environment [8] - The fiberglass market is also facing challenges, with limited order growth and competitive pressures affecting pricing and profitability [8] Group 5: Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several steel companies that are expected to benefit from industry consolidation and high-quality development, including Baosteel and Hualing Steel [7] - In the cement sector, leading companies such as Anhui Conch Cement and Huaxin Cement are highlighted as strong investment opportunities due to their market positions [10] - For the glass industry, companies like Fuyao Glass and Xinyi Glass are recommended based on their competitive advantages and market resilience [10]