Core Viewpoint - The discount retail chain HotMaxx is reportedly closing stores in several major cities and has halted new franchise agreements in some areas, indicating a significant slowdown in its expansion plans for 2025 [1][3][10]. Group 1: Store Closures and Franchise Changes - Consumers have reported that HotMaxx is closing stores in key urban areas such as Guangzhou, Changsha, Hangzhou, and Beijing, with a notable reduction in new store openings planned for 2025, dropping to a scale of only a few dozen [3][10]. - HotMaxx has acknowledged that the closure of some stores is a normal operational choice by franchisees or direct stores, with an overall annual closure rate not exceeding 5% [6]. - The company has stated that the slowdown in new franchise agreements is a strategic decision to focus on core cities, rather than a complete halt, with current franchise opportunities limited to seven cities including Shanghai, Nanjing, and Guangzhou [6][10]. Group 2: Market Context and Industry Trends - The discount retail sector, which saw rapid growth from 2020 to 2022 with brands like HotMaxx, has entered a phase of consolidation due to increased competition and market saturation, leading to the exit of several brands [10]. - The shift in the discount retail landscape is characterized by a transition from aggressive expansion to a focus on efficiency and supply chain management, indicating a maturation of the market [10]. - HotMaxx, which initially gained popularity through low-priced products, is now facing challenges that reflect broader industry trends towards more sustainable growth practices [11].

近日，知名折扣店好特卖 被曝全国多地闭店 部分城市的新加盟也被叫停 有媒体报道，多地消费者在社交平台发信息称，好特卖正在陆续关闭其在核心城市的门店，涉及广州、长沙、杭州、北京等城市热门商圈。有消息称，其 2025年新增门店数量大幅回落至几十家规模，且部分城市已不接受新加盟商加入。 公开资料显示，2020年，好特卖在上海长宁区虹桥凌空SOHO开出首家门店。目前其门店数突破1000家，100多位加盟商人均拥有3家门店，主要位于一二 线、新一线城市。 网友称包括镇江万达广场、仙桃吾悦广场等地的好特卖关门，好特卖苏州万宝财富商业广场店也发布"闭店公告" 好特卖官方就此回应称，闭店是加盟商或直营店正常的经营选择，目前全年整体闭店率不超过5% 。好特卖表示，优质加盟商的分店以及高质量新加盟、 直营门店仍在持续扩张，新加盟申请量持续增长。 有好特卖门店内部工作人员回应称，部分关店主要源于"商场租金问题、租约到期后的主动调整，或部分门店因经营不善导致亏损"。但并没有出现所谓 的"闭店潮"。 关于"部分城市新加盟叫停"的说法，好特卖方面表示，加盟节奏确有"主动放缓"——这是好特卖稳步的发展策略，而非叫停加盟。目前好特卖加盟会在 ...

这实质上打破了传统零售按品类固化的价格体系。在常规渠道,品牌服饰因季节更替、营销溢价等因素, 定价远高于高频消费的快消品。而好特卖超级仓依托其仓店一体的模式,通过大规模集采、极短流通链 路和仓储式的高效呈现,大幅压缩了综合成本。这使得部分品牌服饰的终端售价,得以趋近于快消品的价 格区间,形成了独特的跨品类性价比。 结账时扫一眼购物车:国际大牌羽绒服,价格竟然和平时在快时尚店里买一件同类产品的价格相差无几。 这种消费场景,正出现在好特卖超级仓的大型折扣店内。当人们习惯性地来这里囤积日用品时,悬挂在货 架上的,不再是清一色的快消品,而是密集陈列的羽绒服、冲锋衣、品牌衬衫等,它们与一旁的日用百货,共 享着一套相似的低价逻辑。 对于消费者而言,这带来了一种复合型的购物体验。原本计划购买日用消耗品的行程,可能因为遇见一件 折扣力度很大的知名品牌外套,而转变为一次意外的购物体验。服饰品类所具有的挑选、比价和发现属 性,显著延长了顾客在店内的停留时间,也自然增加了关联购买其他高周转商品的机会。从品牌方视角看, 这提供了一个集中、高效且不影响主渠道定位的库存去化路径,实现了商品在生命周期末端的价值回 收。 当然,这种模式对应 ...

核心要点 核心分析 在评估 2025 年英国经济、企业及金融市场的表现时，人们往往更容易关注那些未发生的事，而非已然 发生的事。 最显而易见的一点是，英国央行的降息力度远未达到市场的普遍预期，同时通胀率的回落幅度也未及英 国央行及其他机构的预判。 2025 年 6 月 26 日，英 国伦敦，视线越过塔桥，望向金丝雀码头林立的商住两用摩天大楼。 不过，从整体经济层面来看，预测机构的判断基本准确。 英国财政部汇总的独立预测数据显示，今年年初，多数机构预计英国全年经济增长率将在 1.3% 至 1.5% 之间。 2025 年的一大意外是，由于通胀率持续高企，英国央行的降息幅度并未达到市场预期。 尽管富时 100 指数表现亮眼，但消费者承压仍对今年英国股市的多个板块造成拖累。 更聚焦英国本土市场的富时 250 指数，年内表现则明显疲软。 随着 2025 年步入尾声，就业市场也亮起了危险的红灯。英国失业率已攀升至 5.1%，达到 2021 年 1 月 以来的最高水平。此外，英国招聘与就业联合会（REC）本周一发布的一项备受关注的调查显示，10 月至 11 月期间，新增职位招聘数量环比下降 14.4%。 这一现象很可能反映 ...

策略研究 | 证券研究报告 — 总量深度 2025 年 12 月 16 日 策略深度报告 风格与趋势共振：新消费投资图景 消费具备轮动补涨配置机会，新消费兼具产业趋势与中期景气双重共振。 中银国际证券股份有限公司 具备证券投资咨询业务资格 策略研究 证券分析师: 王君 (8610)66229061 jun.wang@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300519060003 证券分析师：高天然 (8610)66229064 tianran.gao@bocichina.com 证券投资咨询业务证书编号：S1300522100001 2025 年 Q2 新消费行情演绎的三重逻辑：1）基本面层面：中美贸易摩 擦下，提振内需政策预期强化；2）资金面层面：全球资金再配置，港 股估值修复，A 股和港股消费共振；3）风格轮动：科技与消费呈现"跷 跷板"效应。从宏观背景与风格轮动逻辑来看，当前市场环境与 2025 年 Q2 有一定相似之处，消费风格具备轮动补涨配置机会：1）基本面层 面：CPI 回暖趋势初现，必选消费市场表现与 CPI 同比有较高相关度， 盈利-估值对比，消费风格具有明确优势；2）资金 ...

Economic Characteristics - Since mid-2025, the U.S. economy has exhibited "jobless growth" with an average monthly non-farm employment increase dropping to 18,000, significantly below the historical average of 109,000 during non-recession periods[1][12] - The U.S. economy is experiencing a "K-shaped economy," characterized by diverging consumption, employment, wages, and wealth, where high-income households see consumption growth significantly outpacing that of low-income households[1][2] Causes of K-shaped Economy - The "jobless growth" phenomenon is attributed to structural imbalances in the economy, including economic slowdown, monetary easing, and the impacts of Trump's policies on immigration and tariffs, alongside a structural bull market in U.S. stocks[2][42] - The labor market has become increasingly relaxed, with low-wage groups feeling the economic downturn first and recovering last, leading to a widening gap in income and wealth distribution[2][43] Long-term Trends - The K-shaped characteristics of income and wealth distribution in the U.S. have been developing since the 1980s, with real labor income growth lagging behind productivity growth, reflecting the rise of capital and technology over labor[2][62] - The wealth distribution is heavily skewed, with the top 20% of households holding 71% of net assets and 87% of corporate equity and mutual fund assets, while the bottom 20% hold only about 3%[2][31] Future Outlook - The U.S. economy may transition from "jobless growth" to "low employment growth" in 2026, but the K-shaped characteristics are unlikely to change significantly due to a persistently relaxed labor market and continued expansion of AI capital expenditures[3][68] - Historical cases of "jobless recovery" indicate that total demand must expand to elevate labor demand and tighten the labor market, a path that may be challenging to achieve in the current economic climate[3][68]

这两条并行的轨道，共同导向了对零售渠道的同一核心要求：必须提供远超价格的综合价值。这种全新的消费观，也正是折扣零售在今天得以"翻红"并升级 的核心动力。如今的折扣零售，早已不是大家印象中的那种小众模式，而是能够满足大量消费者追求的"品质低价"的关键渠道。 像如今的奥莱和唯品会都是其中典型，依靠"品牌特卖"的模式，收获了不少年轻人的喜爱。就拿唯品会来说，三季度就交出了一份稳健的数据：GMV达到 431亿元，同比增长7.5%，超级大牌日和超级品类日栏目也持续保持了良好增长的态势，整体业绩同比增长超过20%。 仔细观察如今的社交平台就会发现，当代年轻人的消费行为呈现出了一种"既矛盾又统一"的景象。他们前脚可能还在商场或者电商平台精打细算的购物，只 为了省出那几块钱，转头可能就会投身一场上千块的明星演唱会。就像有些网友说的："七八千的手机说买就买，但19.9的手机壳却要了自己的命"。 这种矛盾的消费观正是如今大多年轻人的消费常态，尼尔森IQ的最新报告将此描述为"理性与感性并行的双轨新常态"。在理性层面，年轻人高度关注确定性 与高性价比，但高达70%的人更青睐成分透明、供应链清晰可靠的产品。这说明对他们来说，价格固然重 ...

Core Viewpoint - Ollie's Bargain Outlet Holdings, Inc. reported mixed third-quarter results, with adjusted earnings per share exceeding analyst expectations but sales falling short of projections [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported third-quarter adjusted earnings per share of 75 cents, beating the analyst consensus estimate of 73 cents [1]. - Quarterly sales reached $613.62 million, reflecting an 18.6% year-over-year increase, but missed the expected $614.397 million [1]. Future Outlook - Following the better-than-expected third-quarter results, the company raised its fiscal 2025 adjusted earnings per share guidance from $3.76–$3.84 to $3.81-$3.87, compared to the analyst estimate of $3.85 [2]. - Ollie's Bargain Outlet also increased its 2025 sales guidance from $2.631 -$2.644 billion to $2.648 -$2.655 billion, against the consensus of $2.644 billion [2]. Stock Performance - Following the earnings announcement, Ollie's Bargain shares fell 0.3% to trade at $113.79 [3]. - Analysts adjusted their price targets for Ollie's Bargain after the earnings report, with UBS lowering its target from $141 to $130 and Piper Sandler cutting its target from $150 to $140 [4].

Core Insights - Ollie's Bargain Outlet reported revenue of $613.62 million for the quarter ended October 2025, marking an 18.6% year-over-year increase and an EPS of $0.75 compared to $0.58 a year ago [1] - The revenue fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $615.68 million by 0.33%, while the EPS exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.71 by 5.63% [1] Financial Performance - Comparable store sales change was 3.3%, slightly below the estimated 3.8% by analysts [4] - The number of stores at the end of the period was 645, surpassing the average estimate of 640 [4] - The company opened 32 new stores, exceeding the average estimate of 27 [4] - Average Net Sales per Store were $0.95 million, below the average estimate of $0.99 million [4] Stock Performance - Ollie's Bargain Outlet shares have returned -6.1% over the past month, contrasting with the Zacks S&P 500 composite's +1.9% change [3] - The stock currently holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), suggesting potential outperformance against the broader market in the near term [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Net sales increased by 19% to $614 million, driven by new store openings and comparable store sales growth [18] - Comparable store sales rose by 3.3%, supported by a mid-single-digit increase in transactions, partially offset by a decrease in average ticket price [18] - Adjusted net income and adjusted earnings per share increased by 29% to $46 million and $0.75, respectively [19] - Adjusted EBITDA increased by 22% to $73 million, with an adjusted EBITDA margin increase of 30 basis points to 11.9% [19] - Total cash and investments rose by 42% to $432 million, with no meaningful long-term debt [20] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company opened 32 new stores in Q3, totaling 645 stores, representing an 18% year-over-year growth [17] - Membership in the Ollie's Army loyalty program increased by 12% to 16.6 million members, driven by new customer acquisition [17] - The top five performing categories were food, seasonal, hardware, stationery, and lawn and garden [19] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company noted strength in higher-income consumers, particularly those with household incomes above $100,000, while lower-income consumers showed some softness [31] - The company is benefiting from a challenging retail environment, which has led to increased deal flow and customer acquisition [31] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The long-term target is to reach 1,300 stores, with a commitment to a minimum of 10% annual unit growth [7] - The company is focusing on customer acquisition and loyalty through the Ollie's Army program, which has seen a 30% year-over-year increase in new memberships [9] - The marketing strategy is shifting towards a digital-first approach, reallocating resources from traditional print to digital media [14][56] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's positioning, citing strong deal flow, expanding customer base, and widening price gaps [26] - The company raised its full-year sales and earnings outlook based on better-than-expected Q3 results and a strong start to Q4 [6][17] - Management acknowledged the challenges in the retail environment but emphasized the opportunities for growth and market share capture [15] Other Important Information - The company plans to expand its Texas distribution center by 150,000 sq ft and increase service capacity by approximately 50 stores [15] - Capital expenditures totaled $31 million for the quarter, primarily for new store openings and the build-out of acquired stores [21] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you frame out the state of your consumer in light of your basket commentary? - Management noted strength in higher-income consumers and some softness in lower-income consumers, potentially due to external factors like government shutdowns [31] Question: Could you elaborate on the components of the third-quarter comp? - Management reported a positive 3.3% comp, with mid-single-digit positive transaction trends and a decline in average ticket price [37][38] Question: Can you talk about customer acquisition trends? - Management highlighted strong customer acquisition, particularly among younger demographics, and noted good retention rates in the Ollie's Army program [46] Question: What are your thoughts on SG&A levers? - Management indicated a focus on leveraging SG&A through operational efficiencies and anticipated benefits from new store openings [53] Question: How are new stores performing, particularly those in bankruptcy locations? - New store performance has been strong, with many stores outperforming expectations, especially those near closed Big Lots locations [71] Question: What are the margin implications of direct sourcing versus closeout? - Management confirmed that seasonal gifts are a mix of direct sourcing and closeouts, with direct sourcing generally yielding better margins [78]